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Rough Rice Futures (Sep 2026)

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ZRU2026 trade ideas

Rice Futures (ZRU2025) – Smart Money Setting the Trap?⚖️ WaverVanir Institutional Macro x SMC x Fib Structure 🧠 Macro Narrative (Q3 2025) Global food inflation is quietly brewing beneath the headlines. With the Black Sea grain corridor compromised, Indian monsoon disruptions, and rising fertilizer input costs due to Middle East instability, the commodity complex is showing undercurrents of supply chain fragility. However, Rice remains heavily discounted, suggesting Smart Money may be accumulating beneath equilibrium before a macro repricing event. 🧠 Technical Thesis – Weekly Timeframe 🔻 CHoCH confirms breakdown of bullish structure 📉 Price has consistently respected the 0.618 retracement zone (~13.55) before facing strong supply rejection 🔺 Major BOS (Break of Structure) zones remain unmitigated above, but order flow is clearly bearish 🟩 Discount Zone (12.275–11.495): Price is revisiting this key institutional demand area 📐 Fibonacci Extensions hint at downside continuation: 1.236 @ 11.495 1.618 @ 10.240 🧭 Target Zones & Execution Plan 📍 Primary TP: 11.495 (1.236 extension) 📍 Extended TP: 10.240 (1.618) – only if macro panic unfolds 📍 Invalidation: Weekly close above 13.80 supply zone 🛡️ Risk Management 🔒 Entry: Break-and-retest of 12.65 (0.886 retracement + low-volume node) 🎯 RR Ratio: ~3.5R for 1st target, >5R for extended 🔥 Max Risk: 0.75% portfolio allocation ⚠️ Hedge risk via broader grains basket or options if volatility spikes 🧬 WaverVanir Insight Institutional algorithms are likely building shorts in supply zones while layering passive bids in the discount range. We anticipate a "liquidity run" under weak lows before a potential Q4 reversal, depending on global food security narratives. 🔻 Until then, bias remains short. #RiceFutures #SMC #WaverVanir #Commodities #InflationHedge #FibAnalysis #MacroTrading #SmartMoney #ZRU2025 #VolanXProtocol
CBOT:ZR1!Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
India’s Rise as the Global Rice Leader: Asian OpportunitiesIndia has solidified its position as a global agricultural powerhouse, overtaking China to become the world’s leading rice producer in the 2024/25 season. India’s rice production has reached a record 147 million tons, marking its ninth consecutive year of growth. This milestone, coupled with record-high rice exports of 24.5 million tons, underscores India’s growing influence in global food markets. For investors, this shift presents compelling opportunities in Asian agriculture, particularly in India’s agribusiness sector. India’s Rice Dominance: A Record-Breaking Year The WASDE report tells to us that India has taken a leadership position in rice production, with output raised by 2 million tons to 147 million tons. This figure is based on the Indian government’s Second Advanced Estimate, which includes both kharif and rabi crops, alongside expectations of a robust summer crop similar to recent years. For the first time, India has surpassed China, which produced 146 million tons in the same period, making India the top global rice producer. This milestone is significant, as rice is a staple for over half the world’s population, and India’s production growth ensures its pivotal role in global food security. India’s dominance extends beyond production to trade. The country’s rice exports for 2024/25 are projected to reach a record 24.5 million tons, up significantly from previous years. This surge has driven global rice trade to a new high of 60.6 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons from the prior forecast. India’s export growth is fueled by strong demand from Sub-Saharan Africa, where consumption is rising, as noted in the report’s 1.4 million ton increase in global rice consumption to 532.1 million tons. Additionally, global rice ending stocks are up 1.7 million tons to 183.2 million, with increases for India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, further stabilizing supply. Why India Stands Out India’s agricultural sector benefits from several structural advantages that make it a standout investment destination. First, its massive population of over 1.4 billion creates a robust domestic market, as highlighted in earlier discussions on emerging markets. This internal demand provides a buffer against global trade disruptions, such as the US-China trade conflicts, which has impacted other export-reliant economies. India’s focus on self-sufficiency, exemplified by initiatives like “Make in India,” has further strengthened its agricultural base, reducing dependence on imports. Secondly, India’s rice sector is supported by favorable government policies. Subsidies for farmers, investments in irrigation, and advancements in agricultural technology have driven productivity gains. India’s production growth is consistent, with nine consecutive years of increases, reflecting the effectiveness of these measures. Additionally, India’s ability to redirect exports to regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia demonstrates its adaptability in a volatile global market. Investment Opportunities in Indian Agribusiness India’s ascent as the global rice leader has created a fertile ground for investment across multiple sectors. Central to this are companies engaged in rice cultivation, milling, and packaging, such as KRBL Limited NSE:KRBL , which exported 1.2 million tons in 2024 and is well-positioned to leverage India’s total rice exports of 24.5 million tons. Enhancing this production is the growing adoption of agricultural technology; platforms like DeHaat, which supports over 1.5 million farmers, reported a 40% revenue surge in 2024, underscoring the sector’s potential. As exports soar, efficient logistics become paramount, with firms like Adani Agri Logistics NSE:ADANIPORTS , possessing a storage capacity of 1.5 million tons, ready to facilitate the movement of rice to global markets. Furthermore, the domestic market’s increasing consumer spending presents opportunities in rice-based consumer goods, exemplified by Britannia Industries’ 8% revenue growth in 2024. Broader Implications for Asian Agriculture India’s success in rice production has broader implications for Asian agriculture. The region, home to 60% of the world’s population, is a critical player in global food markets. We can see increases in rice production for Indonesia (up 0.5 million tons) and Cambodia (up 0.3 million tons), alongside higher ending stocks for Thailand (up 0.4 million tons) and Vietnam (up 0.3 million tons). This regional strength suggests, that Asian agriculture is becoming a more resilient investment theme, particularly amid global trade conflicts. Investors can also look beyond rice to other Asian agricultural sectors. For example, India’s soybean production contributes to global supplies (122.5 million tons ending stocks), offering opportunities in oilseed processing. Similarly, Southeast Asia’s palm oil production, despite a 1.3 million ton decline to 78.2 million tons, remains a pretty important investment area, with companies like Wilmar International poised to benefit from any recovery. Risks to Consider While India’s agricultural sector offers significant potential, risks remain. Inflationary pressures, as seen in India’s broader economy, could increase input costs for farmers, that may impact profitability. We also must highlight geopolitical tensions, such as the US-China trade conflicts, which may indirectly affect rice demand if economic growth slows in key markets like Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, infrastructure gaps in logistics and storage could hinder export efficiency, though government investments are addressing these challenges. To sum it all India’s ascent as the global rice leader, with a record 147 million tons of production and 24.5 million tons in exports, marks a pivotal moment for Asian agriculture. This trend offers a gateway to high-growth opportunities in India’s agribusiness sector, from rice production and agricultural technology to logistics and consumer goods. The broader resilience of Asian agriculture, supported by regional production gains in Indonesia and Cambodia, further enhances the investment case. While risks like inflation and geopolitical tensions persist, India’s structural advantages-domestic demand, policy support, and export growth-make it a compelling destination for long-term investors seeking exposure to the global food market.
CBOT:ZR1!
by juliakhandoshko
Rice Market: Rising Stocks and Growing ImportsIncreased Rice Stocks in the U.S. The latest reports indicates a rise in U.S. rice stocks due to lower-than-expected exports and steady domestic production. Ending stocks for the 2024/25 season have been revised upward to 40.2 million hundredweight (cwt), reflecting a 2.5 million cwt increase from previous estimates. The primary driver behind this stockpile growth is a weaker export market, particularly in key destinations such as the Middle East and Latin America. U.S. rice production remains stable at 202.5 million cwt, with an increase in medium- and short-grain varieties compensating for slight reductions in long-grain output. However, despite steady domestic consumption, the buildup in inventories suggests a bearish outlook for U.S. rice prices in the short term. The season-average farm price for all rice is raised $0.20 per cwt to $15.60 on higher-than-expected prices for the month of January for both classes of rice-NASS Agricultural Prices (based on USDA WASDE report , March 2025). However, current rice futures are trading at $13.36 per cwt, indicating potential price adjustments ahead. Global Stock Expansion and China’s Growing Imports On a global scale, rice inventories have also increased, with total world ending stocks now projected at 178.6 million metric tons (MMT). This represents a 1.8 MMT rise from prior estimates, driven largely by strong production figures in India and Thailand. Notably, China’s rice imports have surged, reaching 6.2 MMT, as the country seeks to diversify its supply sources amid concerns over domestic production stability. With China maintaining its position as the world's largest rice importer, any shifts in its purchasing behavior could have broad implications for global trade flows and price stability. Market Implications and Price Outlook The increase in both U.S. and global rice inventories is likely to exert downward pressure on prices in the coming months. However, fluctuations in demand from key importers like China and shifting trade policies may create volatility in the market. Additionally, weather patterns in major producing regions will be crucial in determining future supply levels.
CBOT:ZR1!
by juliakhandoshko
Rice Production: Record-High U.S. Stocks and India’s Export SurgU.S. Rice Market Developments U.S. rice production is forecast at 222.1 million cwt, reflecting stable output despite shifting market conditions. However, exports have been revised downward by 4.0 million cwt to 96.0 million cwt, primarily due to a decline in long-grain rice shipments. As a result, U.S. ending stocks are projected to rise by 3.5 million cwt to 47.0 million cwt, marking a 10-year high. The increase in supply has also led to a reduction in the average farm price, now estimated at $15.40 per cwt, down $0.20 from previous projections. India’s Expanding Role in Global Trade India continues to dominate the global rice export market, with shipments revised upward to 22.0 million metric tons. The country’s aggressive export strategy, despite recent regulatory interventions, has kept global supply levels high. Increased demand from key importers, including China, has further supported India’s leading position in the market. Global Supply and Consumption Trends Global rice ending stocks have been reduced by 0.5 million metric tons, now forecast at 181.6 million metric tons, primarily due to lower reserves in India and Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, global consumption is set to reach 530.5 million metric tons, with rising demand from Asian economies. Market Outlook The combination of record-high U.S. stocks and India’s robust export performance presents a complex picture for rice markets. While U.S. prices remain under pressure due to surplus stock, India’s export dominance is expected to sustain strong global trade flows.
CBOT:ZR1!
by juliakhandoshko
Can Rice Solve Global Challenges?Rice, a staple that feeds half the world's population, is navigating through an era marked by market turbulence, international rivalries, and groundbreaking innovation. In Japan, an unprecedented governmental intervention has been enacted to stabilize soaring rice prices, showcasing the delicate balance between supply, demand, and consumer welfare. By releasing nearly 210,000 tonnes of rice reserves, Japan aims to quell the price surge exacerbated by climatic extremes and supply chain disruptions, reflecting a broader narrative on how nations can manage food security in the face of environmental challenges. Meanwhile, the global rice landscape is being reshaped by geopolitical maneuvers, particularly in the contest over Basmati rice. Pakistan's recent diplomatic victories in securing recognition for its Basmati in key markets underline the economic and cultural significance of rice varieties, challenging us to reconsider how heritage, origin, and trade laws intertwine in modern commerce. This development affects market shares and prompts a reflection on the importance of intellectual property in agriculture. On the technological frontier, Chinese scientists are redefining rice's nutritional profile through gene editing, introducing Coenzyme Q10 into this traditional grain. This leap forward in biofortification could revolutionize plant-based diets, offering a sustainable solution to nutritional deficiencies. It invites us to ponder how far science can go in enhancing our food's health benefits while maintaining its cultural essence. Finally, Vietnam's volatile export market dynamics serve as a reminder of the commodity's cyclical nature. With prices falling from their peak, the industry's resilience is tested, pushing for strategic adjustments in market expansion and financial resilience. This scenario challenges stakeholders to innovate in market strategies and support systems, ensuring that rice continues to be a stable, accessible food source worldwide. Together, these narratives paint a picture of rice not just as a simple grain but as a complex player in global economics, politics, and science.
CBOT:ZR1!Long
by UDIS_View
Rice Production Record: Impact of Higher Yields in the U.S.United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has also highlighted a significant development in rice production. The U.S. achieved record-high yields for rice, with substantial implications for both domestic and global markets. Lets take a closer look at these record-breaking yields, their impact on supply dynamics, and how changes in demand from key importers like China and Bangladesh are shaping the future of the rice market. Record High Yields and Increased Production According to the WASDE report, the all-rice average yield for the U.S. reached an unprecedented 7,748 pounds per acre, up from 7,641 pounds per acre in the previous year. This increase is largely attributed to a remarkable long-grain yield, which significantly surpassed earlier expectations. Total U.S. rice production was estimated at 222.1 million cwt (hundredweight), marking a notable rise from the prior estimate of 219.8 million cwt. The report also provides a breakdown by state, indicating that Texas and Missouri saw some of the most significant increases in production. These higher yields have not only bolstered national production figures but also contributed to a more robust domestic supply chain. The U.S. now projects total rice supplies at 308.5 million cwt, reflecting increased production, imports, and beginning stocks. Domestic Use and Export Trends With this surge in production, domestic use of rice has also seen a boost. The USDA's estimates suggest that domestic and residual use of rice has increased by 6 million cwt to reach 165 million cwt. However, exports remain unchanged at 100 million cwt, reflecting stability despite the higher production levels. Despite the unchanged export numbers, it is crucial to consider the distribution of rice types. Long-grain rice prices have experienced slight downward pressure due to increased availability, dropping $0.20 per cwt to $14.30. Conversely, medium- and short-grain rice prices have risen $0.30 per cwt to $14.80, influenced by tighter supplies and strong demand. Global Implications The U.S. plays a pivotal role in the global rice trade, and these record yields are likely to have far-reaching effects. While global rice consumption has decreased marginally by 0.1 million tons to 530.2 million tons, the U.S.'s contribution to global supply remains significant. Key rice exporters such as India, Thailand, and Vietnam may face competition from the U.S., potentially influencing global prices and trade patterns. China and Bangladesh, two major importers of rice, have shown signs of adjusting their procurement strategies. China's reduced production estimate has led to a slight uptick in its reliance on imports, while Bangladesh's lower consumption forecasts could ease demand pressures. These shifts highlight the dynamic nature of the global rice market and underscore the importance of adaptability among producers and traders. Price Dynamics and Market Outlook The price trends for different rice varieties provide valuable insights into market conditions. For instance, the all-rice season-average farm price remained stable at $15.60 per cwt. This stability masks underlying movements within specific categories, where long-grain prices have dipped slightly while medium- and short-grain prices have risen. Investors and traders should monitor these price fluctuations closely, as they can signal broader market trends. The milling industry is also witnessing changes, with an increased emphasis on efficiency and quality. The average milling yield stands at 70%, underscoring the need for continuous improvement in processing techniques. Conclusion The record rice yields in the U.S. represent a milestone in agricultural productivity, offering a buffer against global supply uncertainties. As we move forward, the focus must remain on sustaining these high yields through advanced farming practices and technology. Investors in the agricultural sector should pay close attention to these developments, as they hold the potential to reshape market dynamics and influence investment strategies. By leveraging the data from the WASDE report, stakeholders can better anticipate market movements and make informed decisions. The interplay between domestic production, international trade, and consumer demand presents a complex, yet fascinating landscape for those, who engaged in the rice market. Understanding these nuances is essential for navigating the evolving agricultural economy successfully. For detailed tables and further insights, readers are encouraged to visit the USDA’s official website or access the comprehensive database available online. With continued monitoring and analysis, the rice market promises both challenges and opportunities in the coming years. CBOT:ZR1!
CBOT:ZR1!
by juliakhandoshko
Rice Futures Short-Term Trend: The price seems to be in a short-term downtrend, as the overall movement from mid-July to September is trending downward. Support: Around $14.15 is the most recent significant low (from mid-September), which could serve as a support level. Another potential support is near $13.50 (June lows). Bollinger Bands The Bollinger Bands (red and green lines) show the price recently tested the lower band (near $14.15) and has moved towards the middle of the bands (around $15.06). Bearish Sentiment: Overall, the market appears to be in a downtrend, and the most recent price action suggests the market is either consolidating or potentially attempting a minor correction. Key Areas to Watch: Keep an eye on the $14.15 support level and the $15.50 resistance level. Breaking above or below these levels could provide clues to the next significant price movement.
CBOT:ZR1!Short
by Sahrin
USD Weakness and its OpportunitiesThe USD may be weaker, but it does mean that its bad. Because a softer USD, some assets are starting to trend higher. We will do a comparison between the USD and some of these assets or commodities, to see how reactive they are when the USD has trended lower in the recent months. Soybean Oil Futures & Options Ticker: ZL Minimum fluctuation: 1/100 of one cent (0.0001) per pound = $6.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZR1!Long
by konhow
2
Favorite idea for 6mo term: Long Rice, Short SoybeanCan be taken on CME, basically exactly 2 ZR contracts long per 1 contract ZS short. I am very convicted of this one. Peep the CoT I'm not a CoT trader, but last time Comms were short this qty, we roof-pulled on Rice. Crazy illiquid contract/asset so that's going to happen. Big believer that agriculture futures are a totally trash garbage market masquerading as a mature market, so you get these kind of silly behavior when there is any real price discovery on the assets. Best way to max that edge is by taking a spread position in one liquid market vs one position in the inefficient market (the market that is so illiquid and inefficient that it really shouldn't exist). You won't always be right, but sometimes you will and that's enough.
CBOT:ZR1!Long
by wantonwallet
1
RICE 2923If Klaus Schwab has his way this year, expect protein prices to go parabolic. What happens when people get outpriced in wheat and meat? Not only will supply continue to increase at a faster rate thn in previous years. Also global weather conditions have caused many droughts and other weather phenomena. If that isn't enough. The supply chain has been crippled over the past few years. All of this together tells me that food prices have barely started to run. Maybe some have jumped too quickly, but the majority of commodities have only begun to rise. Appears to continue its consolidation in a bull flag and holding a strong resistance at 18. Once popped and retested as support the measured move is about 50 percent. However I think if rice pops, its going to fly.
CBOT:ZR1!Long
by BrandonrG
ZR1! 1.20.23Rice continues to push up against this resistance level. At some point we will get above that R level and enter a straight up zone that could easily see ZR rice nearly double overnight. It is coming. Show me the chart. I'll tell you the news. Something big is coming. Global famine? Maybe in some areas but likely there will be food in many 1st world countries. The question will be. Can you afford it. “Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world.” — Henry Kissinger
CBOT:ZR1!
by BrandonrG
ZR1! Potential For Bearish DropLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZR1! is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 18.045, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 18.375, where the recent high is. Take profit will be at 17.285, where the previous swing low is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CBOT:ZR1!Short
by VantageMarkets
ZR1! Potential for Bullish RiseLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZR1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Price is also along a bullish trend line. Looking for a buy entry at 18.050, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line and recent high is to ride the bullish momentum. Stop loss will be at 17.600, slightly below where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 18.530, where the previous swing high is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CBOT:ZR1!Long
by VantageMarkets
Rice Futures ( ZR1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Rice Futures ( ZR1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 18.530 Pivot: 17.620 Support: 16.630 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZR1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 18.530, where the recent high is. Alternative scenario: Price could head back down to retest the pivot at 17.620, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZR1!Long
by Genesiv
ZR1! Rough Rice 11.23.22Continuing to watch rice march upward for many many months when I first visited this chart. Been incredible to watch but imo this is only the beginning. I expect a measured move up to previous ath. That zone is a straight up and down area so it could be very explosive. However , the extensions I have pulled are really unimaginable prices. I expect food prices to continue to move parabolic especially into the holidays and into next year. You play your game. I will play mine
CBOT:ZR1!
by BrandonrG
Why Rice Prices Determine the Direction of Interest Rates?Recently, I received questions asking my opinion on their borrowing cost, if they should go for fixed or float rates. We somehow know there is inflation, but not exactly sure how long it will last and how bad it will get. Because higher inflation leads to higher interest rates. While I cannot advise them as I do not have a banking license to do so. However, I can point them to the commodity markets, I hope by doing so, it can help them to understand and read into the direction of interest rates with greater clarity. Background on edible commodities: Rice is a staple in the diets of more than half of the world’s population, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East. Annual production of milled rice tops 480 million metric tons, which makes it the third most-produced grain in the world after corn and wheat. An increase in rice prices or edible commodities, it will really add pressure to the existing global inflationary pressure. Hardship will be more intense especially compare to other commodities like crude oil. In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars, but not without food. Therefore, when food prices become much more expensive, the central banks immediate and urgent measures is to counter it by rising interest rates. Content: . Why edible commodities determine the direction of interest rates? . Technical studies . How to hedge or buy them? Rice Market: 91 Metric Tons $0.005 = US$10 Example - $0.01 = US$20 $18.00 = 1800 x US$20 = US$18,000 From $18 to $19 = US$10,000 If you are trading this market for the short-term, do remember to use live data than delay ones. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CBOT:ZR1!Education
by konhow