Multi-Year Bottoming Watch =**Week of:** April 7–11, 2025
**Bias:** Bullish Rotation Setup
**Trade Duration:** Multi-week to multi-month swing
**Status:** Compression Zone Reclaim | Macro Spring Forming
**Reflexivity Phase:** Phase 2 – Structural Reversal Attempt
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## 🧠 Thesis
Canadian Dollar Futures (6C1!) are emerging from a multi-year downtrend channel with signs of base compression and reclaim. This may represent the early stages of a **macro spring** setup — the kind that forms silently while sentiment is bottomed out.
We are now in a zone where smart money often rotates before the crowd reacts.
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## 🔍 Structure Overview
- Decade-long downtrend channel — structure well defined
- Price has reclaimed key breakdown levels
- Early higher lows forming inside compression zone
- Base forming after major sentiment washout
- No parabolic rallies = controlled accumulation
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## 📊 COT + Sentiment Snapshot
- **Commercials:** Gradually increasing net long CAD positions
- **Leveraged Funds:** Still net short — potential fuel for reversal
- **Narrative:** CAD broadly dismissed due to oil & USD dominance
- **Retail:** No attention = stealth phase
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## 🔄 Reflexivity Phase Model
| Phase | Description |
|-------|-------------|
| **Phase 1:** CAD declines for years, sentiment deeply bearish
| **Phase 2:** Structure stabilizes, price reclaims compression zone (now)
| **Phase 3:** Sentiment catches up, breakout attempt begins
| **Phase 4:** Violent revaluation as positioning flips
✅ **Current Phase:** Phase 2 – Smart money accumulating, crowd unaware
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## 🎯 Strategy Guidance
- Favor long bias while above reclaimed levels
- Ideal entry zone: Retest of reclaimed base
- Invalidation: Re-entry below channel support
- Target: Multi-month upside if breakout holds
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> “The broader the base, the bigger the move. CAD may be waking up from a multi year sleep.”
