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E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Mar 2025)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Mar 2025)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Mar 2025)

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Mar 2025)

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ESH2025 trade ideas

Watch These Reversals – MES & MNQ at Major 4H Turning Points!Chart Breakdown: MES1! & MNQ1! – 4H Timeframe Analysis by GOAT This dual-pane chart presents a detailed technical analysis of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES1!) and Micro Nasdaq Futures (MNQ1!) on the 4-hour timeframe, designed with a custom visual aesthetic and proprietary tools by GOAT. 🔺 Left Panel – MES1! (4H): Price Action: MES is trading within a broad rising channel, currently testing key support near 6,020 after a textbook Head and Shoulders formation. Overlays: A dynamic channel structure and multiple Fibonacci-like zone levels guide potential bounce or breakdown scenarios. Bearish Divergence: RSI shows clear bearish divergence leading into the recent highs—highlighted with trendline markers. Support Zones: Immediate support around 5,973, with deeper support levels around 5,905 and 5,808 if breakdown confirms. 🔵 Right Panel – MNQ1! (4H): Structure: MNQ is also respecting a broader bullish channel with intermediate pullbacks. Current structure shows an active Inverse Head and Shoulders setup with a neckline breakout possible above 21,930. Trade Markups: An active long trade is visible with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit zones marked (+784 ticks risk, +4,220 ticks potential reward). Dynamic Zones: Blue channel and volume-weighted zones provide a context for supply/demand imbalances. Momentum: RSI recovering from oversold territory with signs of early bullish reversion. 📉 Bottom Pane – RSI Comparison: MES RSI (Left): Bearish divergence structure leading to local weakness; neutral at ~47. MNQ RSI (Right): Bullish rebound attempt with higher low in RSI compared to price, suggesting a possible positive divergence. 🧠 Summary: This setup highlights potential short-term bullish reversals on MNQ1! and trend exhaustion on MES1! using classic pattern recognition (H&S and inverse H&S), custom channel tools, and momentum divergences. Ideal for traders watching high-probability inflection points on U.S. index futures. ⚙️ Designed for educational purposes. Not financial advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by goat-farm
3
LONG ES after London Open*I like the long better for london open. From 6000, weak liquidity built up above, Finished business below, macro SMAs buy bias... HOWEVER there is also a good case for shorts as we are heading up into futures open, SMAs and there is LVN space below to squeeze into. So... I will be looking for finished business RISK and test/acc ENTRY as outlined there and targeting the weak liquidity above. Given the SMAs above etc, i doubt price will rush up, so take your time and get that test to confirm. And as always if its not there DONT chase. Patience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by thecools
2
A Trend on Borrowed Time, A Micro ED within a Larger ED?Since mid-last month, the broader equity market has been grinding higher — but not with confidence. The advance has been marked by choppy, overlapping price action that feels more hesitant than bullish. Yes, prices continue carving out higher highs and higher lows, but MACD momentum tells a different story. With every push upward, the MACD weakens, flashing warning signs beneath the surface. Taken through the lens of Elliott Wave theory, this unfolding pattern carries all the classic fingerprints of an Ending Diagonal — a structure that often signals a trend on borrowed time. Key Characteristics of an Ending Diagonal: 1. Position in the Wave Structure: A. Occurs in Wave 5 of an impulse wave or Wave C of a corrective pattern (such as a zigzag or flat). B. Rarely, but sometimes, seen in Wave 3 of an impulse, but this is generally associated with a leading diagonal, not an ending one. 2. Structure: A. Composed of five sub-waves, labeled (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v). B. Each of these sub-waves subdivides into 3 waves (i.e., they are all corrective or "3-wave" structures, often labeled as a-b-c). C. This gives the whole pattern a distinct 3-3-3-3-3 internal structure. 3. Price Behavior: A. Overlapping waves: Wave 4 often overlaps with the price territory of Wave 1, which is normally a rule violation for standard impulsive structures — but it's allowed in an ending diagonal. B. Converging trendlines: The upper and lower boundaries of the diagonal typically form converging lines (like a wedge), though they can also be parallel in some cases. C. Diminishing momentum: Often accompanied by momentum divergence, meaning price makes a new high or low, but momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) do not confirm. 4. Implication: A. An ending diagonal suggests the current trend is running out of steam. B. Once complete, a sharp reversal or significant correction is expected. In my analytical view, the byproduct of an Ending Diagonal often lures market participants into a conflicted state — cautious, yet unable to ignore the persistent upward grind. You’ve probably heard the old market adage: “Don’t fight the tape.” In this case, that mentality sets in as traders, wary but worn down, finally throw in the towel and join the advance — only for the market to seemingly punish that decision with a sharp reversal. Many experienced traders describe their Ending Diagonal experience the same way: “The moment I finally stopped fighting the trend and got long, it was as if the market was waiting for me — and reversed hard.” That is how I would describe this micro ED we appear to be in the final stages of what I’m counting as the micro wave v of (v) of Minor A. For now, no key structural support levels within the Micro Ending Diagonal have been breached, so the advance can certainly stretch a little higher. But make no mistake — in my opinion, this remains one of the most dangerous, deceptive patterns to engage with. Last week, I closed my short out-of-the-money ES call positions during the micro wave iv pullback (not shown on the above chart). Ideally, I’m looking for an opportunity to reestablish a similar position this week. From there I will reassess the larger Ending Diagonal pattern you see outlined on the chart above.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
Déjà Vu: Echoes of 2018 in Today’s MarketI’ve spotted a striking resemblance between the current price action and the 2018 market structure. This emerging fractal might be a key to anticipating what comes next. 🧩 Similarities between the 2018–2020 and 2025 corrections AMEX:SPY CME_MINI:MES1! OANDA:SPX500USD CME_MINI:ES1! TVC:SPX : Technical similarities: Drawdown depth: roughly ~21% from peak to bottom Correction shape: similar wave structure — a double zigzag (dZ) Reversal dynamic: V-shaped bottom followed by a smooth, rounded recovery to ATH without sharp retracements Behavior around key MAs: – test of the 200-week MA as support – brief breakdown below the 200-day MA, then quick reclaim (fake-out) Volume profile: increased volume during the selloff, resembling capitulation before reversal 🌍 Key macro parallels: Fed tightening cycle: Both periods saw interest rate hikes and QT against a backdrop of strong economic data. Policy shift: In both cases, Powell started with a hawkish tone and softened it after the correction (2019: “mid-cycle adjustment” with three rate cuts). Strong labor market: Unemployment hovered near 50-year lows (~3.5% in 2019; 3.4% in 2023), suggesting an overheated economy. 🌐 Trade risks: 2018 vs 2025 – 2018: escalation of the US–China trade war – 2025: rising global protectionism, supply chain pressures, and tariffs This leads to higher costs → margin compression In both cases, risks to global demand and corporate earnings This fractal aligns well with both of my long-term wave count scenarios: Base scenario: We’re inside a large impulse, where wave 3 is experiencing a classic extension. This implies the bull market could stretch into the 2030s, with smoother phases of growth and distribution. In this view, the current structure resembles a second wave forming as an rFL. Alternative scenario: The ongoing correction is wave 4 of a large cycle. After this volatile phase, a final rally — the terminal wave of this supercycle — is expected to follow.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by shakatrade1_618
SPX Rug📊 Chart Analysis: ES1! (S&P 500 E-mini Futures, 1H) – Impending Breakdown via iFVG and Rising Wedge Top This chart represents a technical analysis setup for ES1! (S&P 500 E-mini Futures) on the 1-hour timeframe. Here’s a contextual breakdown pointing toward a potential “rug pull” scenario by the end of the week, driven by an internal Fair Value Gap (iFVG) rejection and wedge resistance structure: ⸻ 🔺 Structure Overview: Rising Wedge and Distribution Top • The price action is following a rising wedge, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern, especially when occurring after a strong impulse move. • The wedge’s upper trendline has just been tagged or slightly breached, with price showing early signs of rejection (small-bodied candles, wicks). • A parabolic curve is drawn projecting a rounded top, suggesting buyers may be exhausting into resistance. ⸻ 🧩 Internal Fair Value Gap (iFVG) in Focus • The shaded gray area below current price action marks an iFVG (Internal Fair Value Gap) – a low-volume inefficiency formed during the recent bullish rally. • iFVGs often act as magnetic zones, pulling price back to “rebalance” before continuation or reversal. • Price has not yet filled this inefficiency completely, indicating a likely retracement target. ⸻ 📉 Projected Breakdown Path The curve implies a rounded top formation, with the following potential sequence: 1. Minor liquidity grab just above the wedge resistance. 2. Failure to hold above resistance confirms a deviation and traps late longs. 3. Sharp drop into the iFVG zone (gray block). 4. If iFVG support fails, acceleration toward the lower wedge trendline could follow — a true rug pull scenario. ⸻ 🔻 Bearish Confluence Factors • Volume divergence or lack of sustained momentum at highs (not visible here, but implied). • The steepness of the rally suggests FOMO-driven buying, often vulnerable to reversal. • The price has extended significantly from the last consolidation base, creating air pockets below. • Candle structure shows upper wicks and rejection tails, signaling supply. ⸻ 🗓️ Timing Bias – Into Week’s End • Given the tightness of the wedge and proximity to iFVG + overhead resistance, any retracement could be swift and violent, particularly if driven by macro catalyst or profit-taking. • Expectation would be a breakdown into Thursday or Friday, aligning with common volatility windows (e.g., weekly options expiry). ⸻ 🔚 Summary • Bias: Bearish (short-term) • Trigger: Rejection of wedge high / deviation above resistance • Targets: • Primary: Fill of iFVG (gray zone) • Secondary: Breakdown to lower wedge support • Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above wedge trendline with bullish continuation
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by NeonLight
06/20/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis06/20/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +1437.50 Sleep: 6 hours Overall health: hanging in there ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)** — 6/20/2025 9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double sell) :check: — 6/20/2025 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check: — 6/20/2025 11:14 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (triple buy) :check: What’s one key lesson or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Fed's Barkin: There is nothing urgent in the data warranting a rate cut at this point. What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6015 = Bullish, Under 6005= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WallSt007
06/18/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +521.25 Sleep: 5 hours (bad sleep) Overall health: My Ultrahuman Ring is saying I might be getting sick. 9 need to recover sleep and take care of body today and tmr. I think my lack of exercise this week is catching up to me. **What was my initial plan? ** Looking at things premarket, things looked a bit weak as it was about sell off in the morning with bearish structure and DHC. Went in for a short at 1 min MOB but it didn't react and just broke thru, so flipped to bullish side and took it to the next resistance. overall plan for the day was to look for chop zones to scalp b4 fomc, but that actually didnt happen until after fomc. ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)** 4/5 — 9:50 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check: — 10:52 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :check: — 12:10 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Double signal) :x: — 12:11 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check: — 1:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Double signal) :check: Next day plan--> Above 6015 = Bullish, Under 6005= Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
06/17/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysisEOD accountability report: +1,337.50 Sleep: 9 hours Overall health: Good, was averaging 40k steps the week before, now around 20k avg, need to get it up to 25k steps min per week. **What was my initial plan? ** Went into the market pretty neutral today with the mindset that it should be the calm before storm (fomc tomorrow), There was a string defense of 1 min MOB in the morning and that gave me the belief that early part of the day was going to be bullish so i took a few stabs at support and made my money. ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)** 4/4 — 9:34 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check: — 10:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double signal) :check: — 11:36 AM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal (double signal) :check: — 1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check: Next day plan--> Above 6015 = Bullish, Under 6005= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
SPY 5 Wave Impulse The broader equity market has staged a significant rebound from the panic-induced tariff lows seen in April, reclaiming the previously established value area with notable strength. Generally, when price reclaims a value range, it can be common for price to oscillate within the value area high, and low, to build strength for the next move. From a structural standpoint, I interpret this advance as a five-wave impulsive sequence, with the current rally toward the 6100 level representing the fifth subwave within a larger third wave of the broader Elliott Wave framework. According to this interpretation, we may be approaching a final "blow-off" move to the upside—commonly labeled as Wave 5 of 5—which is often characterized by its velocity, magnitude, and the psychological impact it has on retail participants, frequently triggering a surge of FOMO-driven buying. However, I urge caution: this concluding leg may offer a strategic opportunity to reduce equity exposure, particularly as August has historically exhibited bearish seasonality. A swift corrective decline could follow the completion of this wave, potentially sparking short-term panic. While unsettling, such a correction would likely represent a healthy rebalancing within the broader uptrend and could provide an advantageous entry point ahead of a year-end rally. Furthermore, it's worth noting that many hedge funds and CTAs have remained underexposed throughout this powerful ascent. Should valuations reset to more attractive levels, sidelined liquidity—particularly capital currently parked in money markets—may be incentivized to re-enter the market with a longer-term outlook. The key indicator which I will be following is the VIX risk sentiment in the market. Once we reach elevated levels above approx 30/40 , this would be a good time for me to analyze potentially dollar cost averaging back into the market. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by afurs1
Wave 5 up in a Diagonal could be hours away The chart posted is the sp 500 futures back in april 10 th I labeled the low at 5102 as wave B or 2 both called for sharp rally to as high as 6147 in which wave 1 or a x 1.168 = 3 or c for a wave B top . since then I saw the high at 5968 as the end of wave 3 top and then looked for a drop back to 5669 we saw 5667 and so far all rallies have taken a 3 wave formation in which Most but Not all times this is occurring in an ending diagonal and in each wave we saw so far .887 the preceding wave . I have traded in and out and I am waiting for a final push up to 6083/6147 midpoint 6100 to take a short position . The alt is a small series of 4/5 4/5 4/5 if this were the count we would then break ABOVE 6147 and then reach 6330 . I am waiting to confirm .Best of trades WAVETIMER
CME_MINI:ES1!
by wavetimer
S&P 500 | Short Setup | into Resistance | (June 16, 2025)ES (S&P 500) | Short Setup | Pump into Resistance | (June 16, 2025) 1️⃣ Short Insight Summary: The S&P 500 (ES) pumped nearly 2% today, pushing into major resistance and approaching all-time highs. Now I’m watching for signs of exhaustion and a potential reversal toward key value levels. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Short Entry: Watching for rejection around 6152–6166 Stop Loss: Just above the all-time high or intraday spike TP1: Previous month’s value area high TP2: Mid-channel zone (aligned with Fibonacci confluence) Partial Exits: Consider exiting partially if momentum stalls at key zones 3️⃣ Key Notes: Price is currently breaking out of a power channel. On the 30-minute chart, several limit orders suggest selling interest near this resistance. A reversal here could send ES back into the value range. Also watching ETH, SOL, and other majors for correlation, especially with ongoing geopolitical tensions like news out of Iran. 4️⃣ Optional Follow-up: I’ll keep monitoring for clear reversal signals. If we see sharp rejection with high volume, I’ll post a follow-up. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Risk_Adj_Return