Will PPI add fuel to the fire?Buyers reenter the daily S&P 500 market on Wednesday based on CPI data. Now will PPI data be able to add fuel to the fire and continue this market higher the objective is 6120.
ESH2025 trade ideas
Support has now become resistanceTrend line was broken on 4 hr TF and now that trend line is acting as resistance. Relative equal lows are sell side liquidity. We may gap down on Sunday evening. My short term target range 29 to 27.50 for ES
S&P Correction, More Downturns ExpectedEven though the price traded slightly higher than the closing price on Friday, we did not see it make another high. Instead, it has started its descent into forming what I expect will be a more moderate retracement before we continue the upward trajectory.
The first swing down, just on the look of it, seems to be at or close to completion. Assuming this is true, the best course of action is to wait for the upcoming intra-correction rally of the B wave. Subsequently, we can look to position an order to take advantage of the second swing down to complete a classical zigzag pattern.
The correction so far has reached the 23.6 level retracement of the previous third wave total advance. Still, we would ideally like to see it travel into at least the 38.2% retracement, which coincides somewhat closely with the ending area of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. This is one of the main target areas we look for on the travel of a 4th wave.
I will keep updating as the price and the pattern continue to develop.
Happy Trading :)
20241213 ESI anticipate SandD. More downside initially with d ss raid. Reversal to the upside later during PMS. That is the most effective , max. damage scenario. PA can move upside without d ss raid as well. Nevertheless at least some downside is anticipated.
Es/SPX Morning Update Dec10thThis week will revolve around one key magnet: 6063 area (megaphone support), and ES has respected it so far. After selling there, bouncing, and now spending 20 hours consolidating, it’s backtesting the December 3rd breakout level.
As of now: 6063 remains support. Buyers holding above keeps 6079 and 6088-93 targets in play. If 6063 fails, expect a dip to 6050-6048.
TIP:
If you need to set up your charts exactly like mine, including all the levels and Fib Channels, here’s how starting from the home page:
**1. Go to TradingView and use the search bar.**
**2. Switch to the “People” tab and type in ESMORG.**
**3. Click on one of my updates.**
**4. Scroll to the bottom-right corner outside of the chart and look for three dots (…).**
**5. Click on those dots and select the option that says “Make it Mine” or “Grab this Chart”.**
This will instantly apply my chart setup to your own TradingView account so all your levels can be precise.
50-50The S&P 500 market response to CPI data being released on Wednesday is 50-50 for a directional move.
S&P500 Measured Move - ES Target 2024 Reached?That's a ...ummmhh..surprise at least.
And it's crazy.
I never thought this could happen.
But we better shall believe, that ECH - Everything Can Happen!
So, is the target reached for 2024?
Nobody knows, right?
But, I start to further close positions and take my profits in these Index and the correlating Markets.
Don't let Greed eat your Brain §8-)
As for my Christmas Lotto Ticket this year, I take a small Short Position now...LEAPs, Bear-Spread, dunno yet, but it's a Shortie that I can let sit for a couple Months.
Talk soon...
SPX running on empty, looking for a CORRECTIONI've been bullish the market for a long time and had a great 2024 but I believe the signs are now visible that the market is ready to take a breather. That may have to wait until the Xmas holidays or early new year but I suspect that in the first part of 2025 we could see a decent 5%-10% pullback which should present another buying opportunity for even higher levels 6-12 months down the road. Longer term I am yet to see any signs of a significant market breakdown visible and that comes back to central bank criminals (FED) continuing to have an easing bias and President Trumpet being on the higher government spending/tariffs path which ultimately stokes inflation back higher again.
A neutral finish to the weekThe structure on Friday implies a neutral finish to the week for the S&P 500 market. I'm looking for an inside day on Monday which means it would trade inside of the range from Friday.
Riding US Exceptionalism to 2025 with Long SPY & Protective PutsSize begets size. Records are being shattered. US Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have attracted >USD 1 trillion inflows YTD 2024 for the first time in history. Pro-business policies under President-elect Donald Trump continues to entice investors into US equities.
US stocks are at record levels. Is that a concern? Yes. But, unlike other rallies which tend to be concentrated and narrow, this rally has been broad. Gains are visible across industries & segments.
The “Trump Bump” has sent S&P 500 above 6,000 for the first time in history. It has attracted additional USD 140 billion of funds into US equities since US elections. Trump’s agenda promise – pro-growth policies, lighter regulations, & lower taxes continue to keep US equities buoyant.
The risk of a fall gets elevated when soaring at heights. Long position in US equities pose risks. Among many alternatives, protective puts using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 options is compelling given sanguine implied volatility expectations.
US EQUITIES EXPECTED TO DELIVER SUPERIOR EARNINGS
In the short term, markets are a voting machine. In the long run, they are weighing machines. Regardless of which machine it is, US equities remain unrivalled now. Momentum and fundamentals both favour a long positioning in US stocks.
Stock markets value growth in earnings and profitability. US firms continue to deliver superbly on both. Earnings have risen strong and expected to expand even stronger in 2025. US firms as represented by S&P500 stocks are expected to clock 14.8% in EPS growth (compared to 9.8% in 2024). In sharp contrast, the MSCI AC World ex-US is estimated to deliver 10.8% in EPS growth.
ARE US EQUITIES OVERVALUED?
Ramping up investments or buying into equities when valuations are soaring can give cold feet to any investor. Are we in bubble territory? Perhaps.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are at record highs. But it is not without justification. Rising earnings, promise of artificial intelligence, and American Exceptionalism unleashes the animal spirits.
For now, will the bubble pop? Perhaps not yet.
Instead, the bubble may continue to grow in 2025. Timing the markets is hard. Timing a bubble pop is harder still. During such times, investors must navigate markets prudently with adequate risk guardrails.
Significant capex is being poured into Gen AI investments. If commensurate results are not spectacular enough, stock prices could correct sharply to reflect that disappointment.
US EQUITIES ARE EXPENSIVE. BUY THEM ANYWAY IS WHAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING.
TINA is back in action. TINA stands for “There Is No Alternative.” Where else in the world, apart from the US, is an economy that is large enough, safe, resilient, and offers the greatest upside to growth. No where else. That is American exceptionalism.
Solid earnings growth expectations, rising productivity, consumers in good health, pro-business policy expectations, and light touch regulations collectively contribute to analysts’ overweight rating on the US equities. Fund flows into ETFs vindicates market expectations.
US equities are expensive. It may get even more expensive in 2025. WSJ reported recently that 12-month forward P/E ratios are at 22.3x earnings.
S&P 500 forecasts for end of 2025 remain vastly bullish ranging from 6400 to 7000. In sharp contrast, Peter Berezin of BCA Research expects sharp correction with S&P falling to as low as 4100 by end of 2025.
Source: The Street
FEAR GUAGE REMAINS SANGUINE
Rising asset prices are typically accompanied by elevated implied volatility levels pointing to mounting cost of securing downside protection. Intriguingly that is not the case for US equities for now. The Wall Street Fear Index – the VIX – hovers around multiyear lows.
HYPOTHETICAL PORTFOLIO HEDGING SETUP
Driven by American Exceptionalism, Earnings Growth Expectations, and the Promise of AI, US equities remain compelling. Risk hits hardest when one least expects it. Securing downside protection when it is cheap is what astute investors do.
This paper illustrates method for hedging US equities portfolio represented by 50 units of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust holdings (SPY).
For simplicity, this paper assumes that a portfolio manager acquires 50 SPY units at the closing price as of 6th Dec 2024 paying USD 608 per unit valuing the portfolio at USD 30,400. The manager is willing to accept a 5% drawdown and seeks protection for price corrections below.
In this case investors can utilize a protective put, which is an options strategy where an investor buys a put option while holding the underlying asset. It acts as insurance, limiting potential losses if the asset's price drops.
Portfolio manager buys protective put options using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Options (Micro S&P Options) to hedge downside risk. Deploying CME Micro S&P Options expiring on 20th Jun 2025, the portfolio manager buys protective puts at a strike of 5,850 which corresponds to approximately 5% below the underlying futures trading at 6,165 points.
Based on the closing price on Dec 6, the portfolio manager will have to pay a premium of 124 points (USD 620 = USD 5/index point x 124 index points) for one lot of Micro S&P Options to protect a portfolio of USD 30,400.
The pay-off for the portfolio manager under various S&P 500 levels as of 20th Jun 2025 are illustrated below:
*Put options gain in value when the index drops below the strike price. If index remains above the strike levels, the maximum loss from put options are limited to the premium.
This non-linearity in pay-off enables portfolio managers to limit downside even as they can continue to participate in the upside.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.08 - 12.13.24Last Week :
Last week Sunday Globex opened with a sell from the Edge towards VAH of lower HTF Range but we didn't have enough selling to get back into Previous Value where we have seen acceptance in previous week, instead we held over 6030s and pushed inside the Edge, as noted from last weeks prep to see higher prices we needed to stay around the Edge and hold over 6050s, I was thinking that this 6074 - 54 Edge would keep the price in but instead we were able to hold the Edge, got a failed breakdown from it on Tuesday RTH and a Wednesday Globex push over the Edge which couldn't get back inside during RTH Open, this move put us in new HTF Range and inside 6065 - 6115 Intraday Range. We finished the week with some sells from above VAL area and price holding above the Edge around VAL.
This Week :
As noted last week price action has changed, Volume has died out and it is really time to tighten things up and lower expectations from moves until we see new change. Going into this week we are inside 6070s - 6200s +/- HTF Range, we have buying over the lower Intraday Range and over HTF Edge, we have selling at VAL and so far attempts to push into above Value are not strong enough to give us a good break and hold over instead they find profit taking on every push. Holding over lower Edge implies stability and price can continue balancing over those areas, we can't expect too much selling from here unless we can get back under lower Intraday Edge and find Volume to get under 6050s, but we also have to be careful on the long side as we are now in distribution at higher prices on lower volume which means buyers don't have to keep chasing price up too much higher just yet. We could see price to continue holding and grinding around this new VAL area with attempts to push into new Value, inside the Value we have to be careful as until we accept inside its Mean and start transacting over it then we could continue seeing the price hold under the Mean and come out of Value towards VAL/under. I would watch for possible balancing in these 6090s - 6120s areas until we show acceptance over/under that would want to continue over the Mean or stay under lower Intraday Edge.
ES / MES Weekend Update Dec 8We continue OTFU on the weekly and daily. I want to be slightly cautious above here, not because it's bearish, but simply because we're above a 2 sigma deviation (SPX 6073) of the YTD vwap (SPX 5405). In the past, price has whipsawed at this deviation up to the 2.5. While I remain long, I also must have one foot out the door.
Last week created a double distribution profile with Friday ending in the upper part. Thursday saw a pretty large seller come on around 6106 which then saw some resistance on Friday. Friday's initial move at the open from the NFP data left a poor high. This will most likely be revisited. Main concern for buyers here would be an excess move above Friday's high creating a look above and fail. I would watch 6114-6119 for exact scenario.
For longs, I would be interested in a look below and fail of 6092-88. There is a LVN between Friday's low and the 12/5 Spike base. Take this up to 6100-06, trim and see where we go from there. A break above Friday's VAH, 6104 would target Friday's Poor High. Afterwards, we observe for the look above and fail possibility. Otherwise, trail the long. Above then targets 6124 and 6136, Friday 50% and 100% extensions respectively.
If we trade and get traction below Friday's low, the NFP event candle low would be first target at 6075. Further weakness may finally see the gap fill at 6066 where I do expect buyers to pop in. Further weakness, would then target Nov RTH ATH 6060 and old balance top at 6045.
In the end, buyers really are not in serious trouble until back below 6k.
Weekly Expected Move: 61pts - 6038 / 6160
12/9 Daily Expected Move: 20pts - 6079 / 6119
Not looking for a big move lowerSeller's return to the daily chart of the S&P 500 on Monday. Follow-through would be expected but not a dramatic move without new fundamental information.
ES new levels for tomorrow ES retracements (blue) and targets/extensions (grey boxes) for tonight/tomorrow.
ES/SPX morning update December 9Last friday, buyers reclaiming 6088 triggered a nice long. Since then, ES has been basinh, with 6088 now acting as support. We’re forming a 3-day “megaphone” pattern now.
As of now: 6088 (already tested) and 6081 are supports. Buyers holding above keeps 6109 and 6117+ targets in play. If 6081 fails, sell triggers could take us down to 6068.
Buyers showed up on FridayBuyers push the S&P 500 higher on Friday. The challenge will be to continue this momentum higher. The structure implies an update for Monday but not a large day on Monday
Market in waitingThe daily structure in the S&P 500 market implies profit-taking and the market in waiting as jobs numbers are released on Friday. The tone of these numbers will set expectations for future Fed action and whether this market will be confident going into the weekend with an up close. How the market will respond is 50-50 in terms of whether a will be up or down.
Momentum on the buy sideThe daily chart in the S&P 500 implies momentum continues on the buy side. However, do not look for the same size of move on Thursday but a positive move above 6110 to 120 is expected.
Does the market get what it wants from the Fed?The main focus on Wednesday will be the Federal Reserve's action taken regarding the fed funds rate. If the Federal Reserve lowers the fed funds rate by 25 bps, the expectation will be an upmarket and a positive close. If the Federal Reserve defers lowering the fed funds rate, the expectation would be a down market and a negative close.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 - ES Bull FlagI'm beginning to get more bearish for the short term but for now ES continues to hold support around 6,113, which was a previous ATH from the post election rally. It's bullish until it breaks. My best guess is that it will break and will potentially provide a good short opportunity for a move down to demand and a previous swing low near 5,950. Next downside target from there would be 5,800.
If it holds I'd expect a move back up to the top end of the range and would be looking for longs on a break and retest or any good dips. This is an interesting spot and seems like a good spot to long, but it could just as easily be a quick flush. It's probably best to wait and see what happens after FOMC before putting on too much risk. There will be a chance to get on board after it chooses a direction. IV is rising, best to wait for it to come down.
2024-12-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Prices are messed up due to contract change but my lower targets were hit and market is in balance at now 6140ish. Huge support 6115 for the bulls and bears need a strong 1h bar close below it for lower prices. Bulls are in full control when market can only go sideways right under the ath.
comment : Both sides made money today so I expect them to do the same tomorrow. If anything I see the chances of another bull breakout higher than a break below. We have clear support at 6115 and until this is strongly broken, look for longs near it.
current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon
key levels: 6115 - 6200 (contract change, so prices are much higher compared to Monday)
bull case: Bulls are still buying the dips and making money. They prevent any stronger selling and that is why most will expect a break above the 1h 20ema tomorrow and the bear trend line. 6150 is their target for tomorrow. Depending on what Jpow delivers, we could melt up again but it’s a gamble I am not willing to take tomorrow. Many bulls also bought this because it’s close to the daily 20ema. We have closed once below it in the past 6 weeks.
Invalidation is below 6100.
bear case: Bears are trying but getting nowhere. They make money scalping but that’s about it. How likely is acceleration downwards? Very unlikely. Most bullish weeks of the year and markets are at peak euphoria.
Invalidation is above 6200.
short term: Neutral. FOMC tomorrow and if anything I expect bulls to trade back up to 6180 going into it. 6115 - 6140 is neutral. Bearish only below 6100.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling since Globex or buying previous support 6115. Bears kept it below the 1h 20ema which had 3 great short opportunities today but bulls also had decent bounces off 6115.
