MESM2020 trade ideas
ES likely to rally strongly tomorrowSee EWT wave 1 up, and a corrective wave two down, then a bullish harami and a bullish engulfing. This is also called the rising thjree method in candlesticks.
We are just under Pivot, crushing it upwards with London buying.
I think we could easily see R5 or R6 tomorrow, the patterns recently have been HOD in the morning and corrections in the afternoon, with a lot of reversals. If you trade a 60" candle you can profit for days at a time on the same trade.... I'm talking about my basic method, but S5 and sell R5, or R6.
Inside dayThe expectation for Monday's action in the S&P 500 is for a trading session that trades inside the range of Friday's range. This is expected because of the market waiting for information on the presidential election and the fat action on Tuesday and Wednesday.
S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - It's Margin Call SeasonIt's been a rough few weeks for traders as many are complaining about high resistance conditions throughout the past couple of weeks and booyyyy are they right!
Although i have managed to eek a tiny bit of success recently in these conditions, I HIGHLY RECCOMEND against trading with maximum leverage in conditions like this, especially if not a scalper.
Unfinished business @ Sellside is tickling my fancy @ $5,725.25
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.03 - 11.08Last Week :
Sunday Globex opened right over the Mean of Value and gave a push back to VAH where we spent the night and RTH of Monday consolidating under, staying under VAH meant weakness for us going into the week and we kept seeing flushes towards VAL but every move towards it was mostly done during ON hours and would be bought back up over 840s. Finally midweek buyers saw no continuation and we got an RTH volume sell that closed under the Mean into the Key Area that needed to be taken out for continuation into VAL.
Once under VAL all the buyers in Value and over were trapped for Supply and once we failed to get back into Value we saw the continuation sell back into Previous Distribution Balance with a strong break of Lower Edge to put us back into lower HTF Range of 790 - 630s. We did another look below 750 end of day Thursday which failed to continue that night and gave rotation back into to the Edge and Friday we most likely saw short covering before the Weekend after a big move that gave us a push to that balance top with a failure to hold over and finished with a close under the Edge trapping more supply.
This Week :
Could be another tricky week as we have election coming up Tuesday and some bigger data on Thursday so of course have to be careful trading this week but what can we sort of expect after last week ?
We are back in Previous Distribution Balance of 750s - 800s and IF we do have enough covering and buying still then that could keep the price around it with moves out of it finding their way back in as one of the scenarios BUT this what is different this time around from the time that we spent in this balance before is that now we have plenty of supply and trapped buyers built up over us in the above ranges Value and Over it, plus the Supply that got built over Thursday and Friday inside it, with a push and close under the Edge this shows us acceptance in this lower range and IF we don't have the buying to keep us up we get through that 750s area then I would look for continuation pushes into the Mean and VAL area which has a bigger Cost Basis that we made a while ago with a Gap which happened during a contract roll that we could try to get into. IF we do get there then that would be an area to be careful around as we can see covering there under Value and above lower Edge but it's not something I would build a house on because size can take it out and that could bring more selling to test the lower Edge and maybe a peak under it.
We don't have any news or data on Monday so we have to ask will the buyers from Thursday/Friday want to hold this product into Election Day or did they Sell Friday into the short covering and the ones who didn't will sell out once we take the stops which can bring the continuation move under VAH that we are looking for.
To not get too short biased, IF we are able to hold over VAH/750s and see a push back over the Edge then we would need to see price hold over 790s to bring back stability AND once stability is back would need to see a push back into above VAL, until then need to be careful looking for higher prices from the Edge as we could either balance under the Edge/VAH area or get continuation to lower targets.
S&P 500: Again..Price goes to forecasted areaDo check out my thought process on the S&P 500's chart in my previous videos.
Again, price goes to forecasted area.
I believe it's going to be sideways on Monday as US Presidential Election is on Tuesday.
Dramatic moveA dramatic move lower occurred in the Thursday. The expectation is for lower movement towards the 5700 level but not the same drama to the downside that we saw on Thursday.
Seller's returnSellers returned to the S&P 500 on the daily chart. I was looking for an up close on Wednesday but what we found was a skittish market that broke to the downside. Follow through to the downside could be tough because there are strong levels of support for the market to break through.
Is QE really around the corner? Let's compare to GFCThe argument for US Quantitative Easing soon and subsequent pumpamentals in the equity market are often discussed on socialmedia these days.
Let's look at the GFC and see when they announced QE back then.
February 7, 2007 – HSBC’s Subprime Losses
July 31, 2007 – Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse
September 18, 2007 – Fed Begins Rate Cuts
September 15, 2008 - Lehmann Brothers Bankruptcy
November 25, 2008 - Fed announces QE: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081125b.htm
Were are we today?
Stonks at ATH, Gold at ATH, Bitcoin ATH. Valuations historically expansive and growth expectations on stonks gigantic accompanied by a lot of passive investment.
Okay so all I'm trying to say here is that there were times where they were very strict in doing QE and only as a last resort in the depths of a crisis.
Also when it happens it is not the immediate start to a bull market (at least during a crisis event).
Also the balance sheet of the FED seems still full to me with 7 trillion to burn through. Is it really time to increase again?
I know that the argument for soon QE to create liquidity(inflation) to handle the looming global debt crisis everyone is talking about is also out there.
I also think that they will be faster this time to announce QE, they might just still take couple of months and a little bit of crisis.
10-31 ES Price action review and Overnight session ReviewGoing over yesterdays price action looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded better. market gave many clues and we need to be aware of what the market is saying before we start dictating to her what she needs to do.
10-31 ES Price action review and Overnight session ReviewGoing over yesterdays price action looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded better. market gave many clues and we need to be aware of what the market is saying before we start dictating to her what she needs to do.
$SPY #ES_F (Fibonacci BOT UPDATE)JUST 1 Fibonacci Swing PER WEEK over 6k this week in 2 days I took this by entering my orders using BRACKETS (chart below)
On the 4 hr chart the GOAL is to IDENTIFY ONE HIGH CONFIDENCE setup per week to make 2-3X first target and second 10X (runners)
I've started the PROCESS of creating the BOT bear with me it will take TIME but
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Average Range Levels Short Market dumped really really harded and I participated in this move!
I entered at 1/3AWR- take first partial at ADR and final Take profit at AWR- I felt this move was coming since when price mooves like this before NFP it tends to do these types of moves.
US500 SPX Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀👉 The US500 has recently faced selling pressure, which could offer opportunities for short-term traders. In this video, we’ll break down the price action, assess the current trend and market structure, and look at potential counter-trend buy and sell setups during the retracement if the price action develops as anticipated. Risk Disclaimer: Forex trading carries significant risks, and market conditions may change suddenly. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. 📉✅
Bullish set upThe structure in the daily chart in the S&P 500 is bullish. It is also important to remember the broader structure is a neutral zone which implies a sideways market. The challenge will be for buyers to make new highs. 5900 is the next objective to the upside.
Fractal Consolidations Pre-Elections Shortprice swept after london session LRLR (blue box) High adn that was my entry Stop-Loss went above HRLR (red box) and I targeted Previous Week Low which was LRLR at the same time!
MES Short 11/4/2024MES is in a downtrend in 4hr chart. Placed a short position in confluence HV SZ (the lowest SZ). Risk= $200. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
$ES_F (Emini Futures) Wedge Breakdwon$ES_F (Emini futures) recently broke a strong bullish wedge support selling extremely strong, since then it’s been holding the 23.6% retracement, now there are 2 scenarios that i’ll be watching the ideal scenario would be a continuation of the breakdown to fill gap which is a target of $5,639.50 and potentially continue lower. The bullish scenario would be to hold retracement and bounce to target the wedge resistance and potentially even break above and continue higher.
S&P500: Sideways to Bearish for tomorrowTomorrow is a BIG day i.e. the US Election!
Likely going to chop around until a clear winner is announced.
But based on the chart, it looks like it will be sideways to bearish.
If I have time, I'll give another update tomorrow afternoon (EST)
Bearish MES Contracts Trade IdeaCurrent market conditions suggest a potential pullback in MES contracts as broader economic signals continue to show uncertainty. After a recent rally, prices appear overextended on the higher timeframes, and momentum may begin to shift downward as investors weigh upcoming data releases and recent Fed statements. I’m looking for a corrective move lower, targeting support levels on the intraday charts, with stops set above recent highs to manage risk. This setup anticipates short-term selling pressure as the market readjusts from its recent highs.
BalancedThe rally and break in the S&P 500 on Friday sets up a balanced environment going into the weekend. I am looking for a sideways move on Monday
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.27 - 11.01Last Week :
Last week Sunday Globex opened right at the upper Edge with a sell back to VAH. Going into the week being under the Edge and under 900 was our key to see moves back to Value, we saw pushes inside Value Monday RTH and Tuesday Pre Market which were bought up until we built more supply right around VAH which finally gave us a move into Value for the 70 - 50s and 40s targets. We did get enough Volume to make it all the way down to VAL and through towards the lower Edge but ran out of Supply right at the top of Previous Distribution Balance and were able to come back inside Value. We ended the week with another attempt out of VAH which ran out of buying and came back inside Value to take back the whole move which was done during Globex hours to close under the Mean right into the Intraday Range Edge of 41 - 36.
This Week :
Looking at this weeks chart and price location it's not as easy to read as there are lots of possibilities which could happen. We are going into Month end week, have quite a bit of market moving data, supply in Value and above, and covering at and under VAL.
30m , 2h, 4h are in correction mode, 1hr not quite there just yet if we are looking at the MAs.
Daily TF also giving us first signs of correction starting but it's just the first steps which means it might not be ready yet for any bigger continuation lower and at the same time have the Supply in Value and above to possibly go down and fill the buying in around VAL and Under.
Of course IF stronger volume comes in and we see strong acceptance under VAL and are able to push inside or through the lower Edge then that could bring in a bigger change for more downside into lower HTF Range/our Previous Distribution Balance low and lower Value so will be something to keep in mind and watch for.
If we can't stay above 840s - 50s to stay over the Mean of this Value and stay in this 880 - 40 Intraday Range then we will look for pushes into VAL and under, at and under VAL we have to be careful as there could be enough buying/covering to keep us away from the Edge but at the same time not give us big bounces as we have seen before, instead we could distribute around this 840 - 800s area. After failing at the upper Edge with Supply above, lower Edge and even push under it could be a good target/move to see this week but I am just trying to stay away from getting too biased to not push for it but its something to keep in mind.
For us to think higher prices from here again we would need to either hold above 840s and get back over 50 - 60s to stay in 880 - 40s Intraday Range and see pushes towards VAH or consolidate around VAL without accepting under and then push back over Value Mean.
And if buying and selling on both sides of Value is still strong enough then we could continue holding and going back and forth between VAH/VAL.
Overall looking at HTFs it seems like we are ready for a bigger back fill to finally happen in the market but it might take time to play out, if there will be interest I can post a Daily TF Chart which shows the range we broke out of is 5750s - 5400s, a back fill to break out area and IF we get back inside then move towards Mid/lows and under of that range can be in play but again that's HTF Outlook that can take a LONG time to fully play out not for intraday or shorter term swing trading.
