MESZ2021 trade ideas
S&P500: Very bullish after Trump's win! But...Market is still bullish, but momentum is weakening.
There's a clear support zone at between 5910 to 5950. This is where I forecast it will drop to if profit taking were to happen.
If you want to be trading short term, then make sure you see signs of reversal at the 4H chart...like bearish engulfing, tweezer top or double/triple top / H&S at the lower timeframes (1H or 15min).
Then move down to 5min to look for divergences or lower highs for entry.
Is The US500 SPX Set For Pullback? Key Price Action Signals👀👉 The US500 SPX is displaying strong bullish momentum, but is it over-extended? A significant pullback at a key support level could present a worthwhile opportunity. I'm closely watching this area for a possible buying setup that matches the key criteria covered in the video. In this analysis, we'll highlight crucial price action signals to monitor and discuss strategic positioning for the next potential move. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. 📊✅
S&P500: More Upward Potential!We still ascribe more upward potential to the S&P’s turquoise wave B – up to the resistance at 6088 points. At this level, we expect a transition into the same-colored wave C, which should push the index down into our green Target Zone between 5110 and 4921 points. Within this Zone, the larger wave should find its final low, which should provide potential entry points for long positions. A stop-loss can be set 1% below this Zone for risk management. However, if the index surpasses the 6088 points mark directly, our alternative scenario (probability: 38%) will come into play: it suggests that the wave low is already in place.
11/7/2024Today I took a couple of trades (not my original plan) I noticed that the trend was bullish so I made a plan, I got on the charts early about 8:30/9:00 o'clock and marked my zones.
I attempted to follow my plan and stick to it because I need control and I do not want to pull pointless multiple triggers a day.
The plan was to go long, but I don't think that today was a good idea for that type of strategy..
At first I did manage to make $536 however because of the activity in the market and because there's choppiness it caused me to double guess and have multiple entries and exits.
I did try to walk away a few times but I started losing money and I lost 90% of my earnings and I only was able to walk away with about a $100 when I accounted for my losses.
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures : Bullish. Breakout was strong with follow through and I have a measured move target to 6400+ and a trend line that runs through 6200. Even if we get a pullback, the first one will most likely be bought and we retest 6050. What would the bears need to make this the ultimate bull trap? One giant bear bar that closes below 5850 could do it but how likely is that? It’s absolutely reasonable to not buy into this madness and wait for bears to come around. I would be surprised if we closed 2024 above 6000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax.
comment : Same logic here as for dax. Bears failed to get below 5700 and on Tuesday market went the other direction. Wednesday was certainly a huge bull surprise and we went high enough that it opens even higher targets. The rally lost steam on Thursday/Friday, which could result in a pullback first. I draw the line for bulls around 5850, if we drop below, we might as well go 5800 followed by 5730.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 5850 - 6050 (above 6050, 6200 comes in play)
bull case: With 6000 my bullish targets were met but this does not look like it’s reversing anytime soon. If bulls keep it above 5850, we are free to go up to 6100/6150. A measured move from last week up gives us 5300 and I even have a measured move target at 6500ish from the August rally but that is obviously very far fetched for now.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Bears have nothing as of now. The rally last week was strong enough to expect more upside and bears could not trade more than a bar below the 1h 20ema since Tuesday. The best they can hope for is that the bull trend line above us, holds and market does not go much above 6050. My bullish targets were met with 6000 but the market obviously broke strong enough above it. Bears have no decent reason to sell this right now.
Invalidation is above 6100.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5758 and now we are at 6025. Well, at least I was not bearish.
short term: I want to join the bulls but need a pullback first or a strong momentum break above 6030. Zero bearish thoughts as of now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bear lines, adjusted bull trend line and added bull channel
NQ breaks to new highs. Markets reacting to Election ResultsThis upward trend seems to have some momentum today. I'm not suggesting traders chase this rally and hold anything overnight, but I am seeing new highs on the ES/NQ charts, and IWM and other sectors are rallying to new ATHs today as well.
This shows the scale of capital sitting and waiting for the election to play out. Traders were very concerned with the election outcome.
At this point, I consider this rally phase a bit overcooked. The ES and NQ will likely continue to try to push higher as we move into the Santa Rally phase, but as a trader, I would be cautious of any overreaction to the election results.
My best advice for my followers is to continue trading in minimal quantities unless you can handle taking huge lumps/losses over the next 3 to 4 days.
The US markets will settle into next week, and after this emotional price move subsides, we'll start to trend based on more logical economic data.
There will be some huge opportunities for skilled traders over the next 5+ months. Get ready.
Get some.
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ES levels and targets Nov 5thIt’s Election Day, but most of the volatility likely won’t kick in until after 6pm—expect mostly noise until then. I wont be trading today as setups wont be too appealing anyways. Last night, 5734 was noted as support in the 5pm plan; we hit 5735 and saw a 20-point bounce.
As of now: Looking for chop between 5770-5734. Key support is 5748, which holds the potential for 5760 and 5770 breakout levels. If 5734 fails, we come down.
Volatility is expectedTuesday's price action in the S&P 500 was orderly to the buy side. This is not unusual behavior on the day of a presidential election. As we get additional information on the presidential election and the action taken by the Fed volatility this week would be expected.
ES likely to rally strongly tomorrowSee EWT wave 1 up, and a corrective wave two down, then a bullish harami and a bullish engulfing. This is also called the rising thjree method in candlesticks.
We are just under Pivot, crushing it upwards with London buying.
I think we could easily see R5 or R6 tomorrow, the patterns recently have been HOD in the morning and corrections in the afternoon, with a lot of reversals. If you trade a 60" candle you can profit for days at a time on the same trade.... I'm talking about my basic method, but S5 and sell R5, or R6.
S&P 500 E-mini FuturesAttention, the terrible child is back!
A strong man in the White House.
The graph speaks for itself, the market has chosen.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
► Thank you for boosting, commenting, subscribing!
Election Rally Sets Up Big REVERSION Shift - Stay CautiousThis quick video was initiated to show you how the ES/NQ are setting up new #2 Excess Phase Peak patterns after the overnight rally.
Then I took a look at Gold/Silver.
We are seeing a very broad shift into a reversion phase where the markets may move into a PANIC type of DEEP-V low over the next 48+ hours.
The move in metals (related to the US Dollar rally), will likely result in a DEEP-V base/bottom - prompting a fairly strong recovery/rally phase in metals over the next 2+ weeks.
Take a look at what happened during the COVID crisis. The same type of PANIC selling/shift took place then.
The Dollar rallies on expectations/policy/or a crisis. This puts very strong pressure on Metals.
Then, the markets settle into a reasonable expectation (post-event) and the US Dollar settles. But metals have been deeply undervalued because of the PANIC selling.
Metals then move strongly back to the upside - removing to the pre-crisis price level, then move even higher as metals attempt to hedge risks related to the post-event/crisis economy.
Get ready. This could be one of the biggest opportunities of your life.
Get Some
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 Futures ($ES) Wave 5 In ProgressShort Term Elliott Wave View in S&P 500 Futures (ES) suggests rally from 8.6.2024 low is in progress as an impulse. Up from 8.6.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 5669.75 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 5394. Wave 3 higher ended at 5927.25. Dips in wave 4 unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 5861.25 and wave (b) ended at 5904.25. Wave (c) lower ended at 5801 which completed wave ((w)) in higher degree. Rally in wave ((x)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Up from wave ((w)), wave (a) ended at 5870 and wave (b) ended at 5822.5. Wave (c) higher ended at 900.75 which completed wave ((x)) in higher degree.
Index then turned lower in wave ((y)) with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave ((x)), wave (a) ended at 5835 and wave (b) ended at 5893. Wave (c) lower ended at 5724.5. This completed wave ((y)) of 4 in higher degree. The Index has resumed the rally higher and made a new high. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 5758.75 and wave (ii) ended at 5735. Wave (iii) higher ended at 5954 and wave (iv) ended at 5900.75. Expect the Index to end wave (v) of ((i)) soon, then it should pullback in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 11.5.2024 low before it resumes higher. Near term, while pivot at 5724.5 low is intact, expect pullback to find buyers in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
US500 SPX Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀👉 The US500 has recently faced selling pressure, which could offer opportunities for short-term traders. In this video, we’ll break down the price action, assess the current trend and market structure, and look at potential counter-trend buy and sell setups during the retracement if the price action develops as anticipated. Risk Disclaimer: Forex trading carries significant risks, and market conditions may change suddenly. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. 📉✅
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.10 - 11.15.24Last Week :
Last week market opened under 5792 - 72 Edge which meant weakness to start the week and gave us moves towards lower VAH but again we kept getting buying at and under Previous Distribution Balance low and inside Value. We knew to be careful and that holding over 730s meant there is no need for larger supply to sell out. 724 was also an important area on Daily TF as it was the bottom of Daily Edge which we broke out of after our roll gap in September, we tested it but there was no break or any continuation under it. We knew if market gets back over 790s that could bring back strength to push back in Previous Value which is what we got on Tuesday leading into Election Results. Election Globex gave a huge move which continued higher towards 930s - 770s ranges Edge, took it out, consolidated and rest of the week we got lower volume grind higher into a new range to finish the week with a failure over new Value.
This Week :
Not easy to trade ATHs especially if we get them every few weeks or months and of course this move could be viewed as strength to bring in more buying that can keep us in this range or even continue grinding higher BUT something to keep in mind as few things are lining up here.
We have made an Edge to Edge push on Daily TF ( reaching big Edge areas more often than not provides reaction in opposite direction ) , we have extended away from Daily MAs with a strong impulse that gave us blow off the top sort of move over our Previous Highs consolidation, we have finished the week with a failed or sort of failed push over VAH since we didn't fully come back in and held over 920s , we didn't reach new ranges top.
Now all this doesn't mean we can't hold and continue balancing/grinding higher towards that Edge top and over still BUT if all this buying over 930s was from all the late buyers/traders who sat on their hands during the election days, came in saw areas holding and were buying for continuation to make money off momentum then they were also probably unloading as it went higher and might not have plans to hold this up long term unless market continues in their favor. If market does not continue in their favor and we get back under VAH / 620s then we could see this thing start moving towards their cost basis, we have Poor Globex low holding one of them up around the Mean of the Range, if that gets taken we will look for continuation towards VAL which has another cost basis and a base below it which could give us covering/holds in that area BUT I would not trust those areas for a longer term position, if market cant keep holding over the Mean/VAL of this range then we could see it come all the way back into lower Edge and maybe even under our Previous Highs to signal a failed new ATH break out. Will this all happen in a week or will it be a slow process is for us to find out, we don't really have market moving data to start the week and if we don't get new buying to keep pushing us then we at least can look for this process to start and see how it goes.
On the other side for this move to stick and to think higher prices from here we would want to see us hold over VAH or at least push back towards the Mean/Hold over and get back over VAH as we need to get over 640s and test the upper Edge with holds inside or right under the Edge after the test, until this happens I will lean more towards a move back inside Value towards VAL and potentially finding our top around here.
Is QE really around the corner? Let's compare to GFCThe argument for US Quantitative Easing soon and subsequent pumpamentals in the equity market are often discussed on socialmedia these days.
Let's look at the GFC and see when they announced QE back then.
February 7, 2007 – HSBC’s Subprime Losses
July 31, 2007 – Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse
September 18, 2007 – Fed Begins Rate Cuts
September 15, 2008 - Lehmann Brothers Bankruptcy
November 25, 2008 - Fed announces QE: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081125b.htm
Were are we today?
Stonks at ATH, Gold at ATH, Bitcoin ATH. Valuations historically expansive and growth expectations on stonks gigantic accompanied by a lot of passive investment.
Okay so all I'm trying to say here is that there were times where they were very strict in doing QE and only as a last resort in the depths of a crisis.
Also when it happens it is not the immediate start to a bull market (at least during a crisis event).
Also the balance sheet of the FED seems still full to me with 7 trillion to burn through. Is it really time to increase again?
I know that the argument for soon QE to create liquidity(inflation) to handle the looming global debt crisis everyone is talking about is also out there.
I also think that they will be faster this time to announce QE, they might just still take couple of months and a little bit of crisis.
S&P500: Sideways to Bearish for tomorrowTomorrow is a BIG day i.e. the US Election!
Likely going to chop around until a clear winner is announced.
But based on the chart, it looks like it will be sideways to bearish.
If I have time, I'll give another update tomorrow afternoon (EST)
ES levels and targets Nov 7thOvernight, buyers hit major targets. Yesterday’s 5902 support held as expected, setting up for a move back to 5954 and then 5975, which we’re at now. Reminder: FOMC at 2pm today. Lock in gains, leave a small runner if you have them—any further upside is a bonus for buyers today
As of now: 5992 and 6006-07 are in play if buyers wants more. Weak support at 5950; a dip below could head toward 5925.
Fractal Consolidations Pre-Elections Shortprice swept after london session LRLR (blue box) High adn that was my entry Stop-Loss went above HRLR (red box) and I targeted Previous Week Low which was LRLR at the same time!
A confident Friday closeA positive close above 6040 in the S&P 500 would be an indicator of market confidence going into the weekend. It also implies that that positive close could carry over to positive momentum next week.
MES Short 11/4/2024MES is in a downtrend in 4hr chart. Placed a short position in confluence HV SZ (the lowest SZ). Risk= $200. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
Buyers hold on going into the weekendBuyers held positions going into the weekend in the S&P 500 on Friday. This maintains a positive outlook going into next week. Be cautious about the smaller bodies on the candle charts it implies a loss of momentum but not necessarily a dramatic move to the downside.
S&P500: All time high! But sighs of weakness appearing?Calling tops or bottoms is always dangerous.
But since this is just an analysis, there's no harm :)
The Daily is a green doji candlestick. Not the weakest.
However, the 4H is a red doji candlestick.
So, we should see price coming back down as of the next 4H candlestick...even if it's small bodied since it's Asia trading hours.
If price continues to go higher and break above 6030, then clearly the bulls are not with it yet. But I think it should retrace to 6,000 area at the least.
Still think the 5,900 area is a stronger support, but we shall see if it does come back down or not.
