MESZ2025 trade ideas
S&P500: Very bullish after Trump's win! But...Market is still bullish, but momentum is weakening.
There's a clear support zone at between 5910 to 5950. This is where I forecast it will drop to if profit taking were to happen.
If you want to be trading short term, then make sure you see signs of reversal at the 4H chart...like bearish engulfing, tweezer top or double/triple top / H&S at the lower timeframes (1H or 15min).
Then move down to 5min to look for divergences or lower highs for entry.
S&P500: More Upward Potential!We still ascribe more upward potential to the S&P’s turquoise wave B – up to the resistance at 6088 points. At this level, we expect a transition into the same-colored wave C, which should push the index down into our green Target Zone between 5110 and 4921 points. Within this Zone, the larger wave should find its final low, which should provide potential entry points for long positions. A stop-loss can be set 1% below this Zone for risk management. However, if the index surpasses the 6088 points mark directly, our alternative scenario (probability: 38%) will come into play: it suggests that the wave low is already in place.
11/7/2024Today I took a couple of trades (not my original plan) I noticed that the trend was bullish so I made a plan, I got on the charts early about 8:30/9:00 o'clock and marked my zones.
I attempted to follow my plan and stick to it because I need control and I do not want to pull pointless multiple triggers a day.
The plan was to go long, but I don't think that today was a good idea for that type of strategy..
At first I did manage to make $536 however because of the activity in the market and because there's choppiness it caused me to double guess and have multiple entries and exits.
I did try to walk away a few times but I started losing money and I lost 90% of my earnings and I only was able to walk away with about a $100 when I accounted for my losses.
NQ breaks to new highs. Markets reacting to Election ResultsThis upward trend seems to have some momentum today. I'm not suggesting traders chase this rally and hold anything overnight, but I am seeing new highs on the ES/NQ charts, and IWM and other sectors are rallying to new ATHs today as well.
This shows the scale of capital sitting and waiting for the election to play out. Traders were very concerned with the election outcome.
At this point, I consider this rally phase a bit overcooked. The ES and NQ will likely continue to try to push higher as we move into the Santa Rally phase, but as a trader, I would be cautious of any overreaction to the election results.
My best advice for my followers is to continue trading in minimal quantities unless you can handle taking huge lumps/losses over the next 3 to 4 days.
The US markets will settle into next week, and after this emotional price move subsides, we'll start to trend based on more logical economic data.
There will be some huge opportunities for skilled traders over the next 5+ months. Get ready.
Get some.
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ES likely to rally strongly tomorrowSee EWT wave 1 up, and a corrective wave two down, then a bullish harami and a bullish engulfing. This is also called the rising thjree method in candlesticks.
We are just under Pivot, crushing it upwards with London buying.
I think we could easily see R5 or R6 tomorrow, the patterns recently have been HOD in the morning and corrections in the afternoon, with a lot of reversals. If you trade a 60" candle you can profit for days at a time on the same trade.... I'm talking about my basic method, but S5 and sell R5, or R6.
ES levels and targets Nov 5thIt’s Election Day, but most of the volatility likely won’t kick in until after 6pm—expect mostly noise until then. I wont be trading today as setups wont be too appealing anyways. Last night, 5734 was noted as support in the 5pm plan; we hit 5735 and saw a 20-point bounce.
As of now: Looking for chop between 5770-5734. Key support is 5748, which holds the potential for 5760 and 5770 breakout levels. If 5734 fails, we come down.
Volatility is expectedTuesday's price action in the S&P 500 was orderly to the buy side. This is not unusual behavior on the day of a presidential election. As we get additional information on the presidential election and the action taken by the Fed volatility this week would be expected.
Inside dayThe expectation for Monday's action in the S&P 500 is for a trading session that trades inside the range of Friday's range. This is expected because of the market waiting for information on the presidential election and the fat action on Tuesday and Wednesday.
S&P 500 E-mini FuturesAttention, the terrible child is back!
A strong man in the White House.
The graph speaks for itself, the market has chosen.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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Election Rally Sets Up Big REVERSION Shift - Stay CautiousThis quick video was initiated to show you how the ES/NQ are setting up new #2 Excess Phase Peak patterns after the overnight rally.
Then I took a look at Gold/Silver.
We are seeing a very broad shift into a reversion phase where the markets may move into a PANIC type of DEEP-V low over the next 48+ hours.
The move in metals (related to the US Dollar rally), will likely result in a DEEP-V base/bottom - prompting a fairly strong recovery/rally phase in metals over the next 2+ weeks.
Take a look at what happened during the COVID crisis. The same type of PANIC selling/shift took place then.
The Dollar rallies on expectations/policy/or a crisis. This puts very strong pressure on Metals.
Then, the markets settle into a reasonable expectation (post-event) and the US Dollar settles. But metals have been deeply undervalued because of the PANIC selling.
Metals then move strongly back to the upside - removing to the pre-crisis price level, then move even higher as metals attempt to hedge risks related to the post-event/crisis economy.
Get ready. This could be one of the biggest opportunities of your life.
Get Some
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - It's Margin Call SeasonIt's been a rough few weeks for traders as many are complaining about high resistance conditions throughout the past couple of weeks and booyyyy are they right!
Although i have managed to eek a tiny bit of success recently in these conditions, I HIGHLY RECCOMEND against trading with maximum leverage in conditions like this, especially if not a scalper.
Unfinished business @ Sellside is tickling my fancy @ $5,725.25
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.03 - 11.08Last Week :
Sunday Globex opened right over the Mean of Value and gave a push back to VAH where we spent the night and RTH of Monday consolidating under, staying under VAH meant weakness for us going into the week and we kept seeing flushes towards VAL but every move towards it was mostly done during ON hours and would be bought back up over 840s. Finally midweek buyers saw no continuation and we got an RTH volume sell that closed under the Mean into the Key Area that needed to be taken out for continuation into VAL.
Once under VAL all the buyers in Value and over were trapped for Supply and once we failed to get back into Value we saw the continuation sell back into Previous Distribution Balance with a strong break of Lower Edge to put us back into lower HTF Range of 790 - 630s. We did another look below 750 end of day Thursday which failed to continue that night and gave rotation back into to the Edge and Friday we most likely saw short covering before the Weekend after a big move that gave us a push to that balance top with a failure to hold over and finished with a close under the Edge trapping more supply.
This Week :
Could be another tricky week as we have election coming up Tuesday and some bigger data on Thursday so of course have to be careful trading this week but what can we sort of expect after last week ?
We are back in Previous Distribution Balance of 750s - 800s and IF we do have enough covering and buying still then that could keep the price around it with moves out of it finding their way back in as one of the scenarios BUT this what is different this time around from the time that we spent in this balance before is that now we have plenty of supply and trapped buyers built up over us in the above ranges Value and Over it, plus the Supply that got built over Thursday and Friday inside it, with a push and close under the Edge this shows us acceptance in this lower range and IF we don't have the buying to keep us up we get through that 750s area then I would look for continuation pushes into the Mean and VAL area which has a bigger Cost Basis that we made a while ago with a Gap which happened during a contract roll that we could try to get into. IF we do get there then that would be an area to be careful around as we can see covering there under Value and above lower Edge but it's not something I would build a house on because size can take it out and that could bring more selling to test the lower Edge and maybe a peak under it.
We don't have any news or data on Monday so we have to ask will the buyers from Thursday/Friday want to hold this product into Election Day or did they Sell Friday into the short covering and the ones who didn't will sell out once we take the stops which can bring the continuation move under VAH that we are looking for.
To not get too short biased, IF we are able to hold over VAH/750s and see a push back over the Edge then we would need to see price hold over 790s to bring back stability AND once stability is back would need to see a push back into above VAL, until then need to be careful looking for higher prices from the Edge as we could either balance under the Edge/VAH area or get continuation to lower targets.
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 Futures ($ES) Wave 5 In ProgressShort Term Elliott Wave View in S&P 500 Futures (ES) suggests rally from 8.6.2024 low is in progress as an impulse. Up from 8.6.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 5669.75 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 5394. Wave 3 higher ended at 5927.25. Dips in wave 4 unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 5861.25 and wave (b) ended at 5904.25. Wave (c) lower ended at 5801 which completed wave ((w)) in higher degree. Rally in wave ((x)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Up from wave ((w)), wave (a) ended at 5870 and wave (b) ended at 5822.5. Wave (c) higher ended at 900.75 which completed wave ((x)) in higher degree.
Index then turned lower in wave ((y)) with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave ((x)), wave (a) ended at 5835 and wave (b) ended at 5893. Wave (c) lower ended at 5724.5. This completed wave ((y)) of 4 in higher degree. The Index has resumed the rally higher and made a new high. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 5758.75 and wave (ii) ended at 5735. Wave (iii) higher ended at 5954 and wave (iv) ended at 5900.75. Expect the Index to end wave (v) of ((i)) soon, then it should pullback in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 11.5.2024 low before it resumes higher. Near term, while pivot at 5724.5 low is intact, expect pullback to find buyers in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
S&P 500: Again..Price goes to forecasted areaDo check out my thought process on the S&P 500's chart in my previous videos.
Again, price goes to forecasted area.
I believe it's going to be sideways on Monday as US Presidential Election is on Tuesday.
Is QE really around the corner? Let's compare to GFCThe argument for US Quantitative Easing soon and subsequent pumpamentals in the equity market are often discussed on socialmedia these days.
Let's look at the GFC and see when they announced QE back then.
February 7, 2007 – HSBC’s Subprime Losses
July 31, 2007 – Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse
September 18, 2007 – Fed Begins Rate Cuts
September 15, 2008 - Lehmann Brothers Bankruptcy
November 25, 2008 - Fed announces QE: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081125b.htm
Were are we today?
Stonks at ATH, Gold at ATH, Bitcoin ATH. Valuations historically expansive and growth expectations on stonks gigantic accompanied by a lot of passive investment.
Okay so all I'm trying to say here is that there were times where they were very strict in doing QE and only as a last resort in the depths of a crisis.
Also when it happens it is not the immediate start to a bull market (at least during a crisis event).
Also the balance sheet of the FED seems still full to me with 7 trillion to burn through. Is it really time to increase again?
I know that the argument for soon QE to create liquidity(inflation) to handle the looming global debt crisis everyone is talking about is also out there.
I also think that they will be faster this time to announce QE, they might just still take couple of months and a little bit of crisis.
10-31 ES Price action review and Overnight session ReviewGoing over yesterdays price action looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded better. market gave many clues and we need to be aware of what the market is saying before we start dictating to her what she needs to do.
10-31 ES Price action review and Overnight session ReviewGoing over yesterdays price action looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded better. market gave many clues and we need to be aware of what the market is saying before we start dictating to her what she needs to do.
US500 SPX Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀👉 The US500 has recently faced selling pressure, which could offer opportunities for short-term traders. In this video, we’ll break down the price action, assess the current trend and market structure, and look at potential counter-trend buy and sell setups during the retracement if the price action develops as anticipated. Risk Disclaimer: Forex trading carries significant risks, and market conditions may change suddenly. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. 📉✅
ES levels and targets Nov 7thOvernight, buyers hit major targets. Yesterday’s 5902 support held as expected, setting up for a move back to 5954 and then 5975, which we’re at now. Reminder: FOMC at 2pm today. Lock in gains, leave a small runner if you have them—any further upside is a bonus for buyers today
As of now: 5992 and 6006-07 are in play if buyers wants more. Weak support at 5950; a dip below could head toward 5925.
Fractal Consolidations Pre-Elections Shortprice swept after london session LRLR (blue box) High adn that was my entry Stop-Loss went above HRLR (red box) and I targeted Previous Week Low which was LRLR at the same time!
A confident Friday closeA positive close above 6040 in the S&P 500 would be an indicator of market confidence going into the weekend. It also implies that that positive close could carry over to positive momentum next week.
MES Short 11/4/2024MES is in a downtrend in 4hr chart. Placed a short position in confluence HV SZ (the lowest SZ). Risk= $200. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
