2024-12-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral between 20000 - 20100, Bearish below 20000. Bears tried to break down the bear flag and make new lows but failed above 19900 and bulls retraced 50% of it. Good for bears is that they kept the 1h 20ema resistance and xetra closed the year below 20000, which is a sell signal going into January. Bulls did a good job at retracing more than 50% of the sell-off the keeping it above 20000. Market formed a triangle so buy low and sell high inside it. Below 19900 we could see an acceleration downwards and I see the chance of that happening much greater than going above 20160 again.
comment: Xetra closed below 20000 and that was very important for the bears. The December bar is now a nasty reversal bar and once we make new lows below 19800, bulls can’t hold long since we could easily pull back down to 19100 - 19400.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19800 - 20200
bull case: Bulls do not have much going for them currently, other than keeping the market close to 20000 and that means above the breakout price for the recent bull leg. They have to keep this above 19800 or this bull leg was indeed the exhaustive end of this bull trend and market will test lower. Bulls would need a daily bull bar closing above 20000 to begin with.
Invalidation is below 19800.
bear case: Bears are in control but not as strong as I hoped they would be. Daily bear bars all have tails below but at least bears have now printed 5 consecutive bear bars. This looks clearly like a bear flag about to break down after the strong selling from 20500 down to 19800. Confirmation would be a daily close below 19800 and bears next target then is 19500 and testing the bull trend line. Bulls would have to break above two bear trend lines to start making the market neutral again.
Invalidation is above 20160.
short term: Neutral around 20000. Bearish below 19990 and uber bearish below 19900 for 19800 or lower.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling the pull-back at 20100 down to 19900 was good. Buying 19900 second best trade today.
