2024-12-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Bulls tried 4 times to push above 20450 and failed. Bears did not take advantage and we printed higher lows. As of now it looks like 20400 is the neutral price for tomorrow but I expect a bigger range to both sides before we settle probably somewhere around 20400 again. Any close at the extremes to either side would surprise me.
comment: Clear trading range 20300 - 20500 until we strongly break above or below. For tomorrow I think we can do a retest of the ath 20506 and maybe even a breakout below the channel and test 20350 or lower. I do not expect the week to close to at either extreme. 20400 is the 50% of the current range and the biggest magnet for now. Tomorrow is quad witching. So don’t mess up your trading week getting trapped.
current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon
key levels: 20000 - 20500
bull case: Market is not finding enough buyers above 20450 but bulls are still eager to not let the market make lower lows.
Invalidation is below 20300.
bear case: Bears are content with selling 20450 and that’s about it. We are far above the daily 20ema and bears have only printed 2 daily doji bars. That’s as weak as it gets. Higher prices are still possible. Only a daily close below 20k would help their case. On the 1h chart one could argue that we had 3 legs up inside the current bull channel and market is free to test lower but where are the consecutive strong bear bars? Bears are weak.
Invalidation is above 20520.
short term: Mostly neutral but we are making higher lows and higher highs. Expecting a bigger range for tomorrow but any close above 20500 or below 20380 would surprise me.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buy low sell high inside range or just don’t trade at all. Atrocious day.
