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FDAXZ2026 trade ideas

FDAX : Limited upside before a multi-weeks bearish correction DAX Futures Technical Outlook (Current Level: 22,350): Limited price/time potential before a high probability multi weeks bearish correction Technical Analysis : - Current price at significant daily resistance (22,350/22440 area) - Weekly and monthly momentum indicators showing extreme overbought conditions (a very high probability that a reversal is quite imminent) -A breach of today's critical support level at 22,220 would be a sufficient technical trigger for the start of the multi-week correction** Alternatively, an aggressive entry below 22335 with a tight stop loss Minimal Price Targets : High probability target (1-2 weeks): ~21,580 High probability target (4-8 weeks): 20,850 Extended target (4-8 weeks): 20150 (-10%) Next resistance zone: 22,580-22,660 Potential Fundamental Catalysts : - IA sector revaluation post-Deepseek - German elections with far_right eurosceptic Afd ---gaining traction in the polls - Geopolitical tensions over Gaza - Trade tariffs Today's cooler CPI print is being overlooked by markets - this could be the short-term catalyst that triggers the bearish shift
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by radiantjeremy
2025-02-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I do think the profit taking is around the corner but for now that does not help. Longs are paying, so join the bulls or wait for bigger bears to appear. No more bullish targets from me. 20k was a bubble but 22k is beyond everything. -30% would bring us to 15% and that was the beginning of this bull trend in 2023-10. No matter how you draw the patterns, we are above all of them or at the very top. Looking for shorts does not help when the market goes only up. Join the momentum or wait for the profit taking to begin. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22000 - 22300 bull case: Bulls have measured move up from last weeks low and there is a bull wedge line going up to 22300ish. No idea if we can get there but until we have a daily close below 20k, bulls have all the momentum on their side to continue. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears need to break below many bull trend lines and ema before this can start selling bigger. If bears could prevent the current gap from 22118 to 22180 tomorrow, that would be a start. Retesting 22000 would be the next step but for now the bull trend line is intact and we can’t expect it to break all of a sudden. If bears somehow get below 22k, which I doubt, 21850 is the next bigger target. Invalidation is above 22300. short term: Neutral. Can’t hold the bearish bias when market is only going up. Can this be the top and we go down from here? Yeah sure but the same logic was true at 20k. Picking tops is a bad game. Need to have a daily close below 22k before we can look for lower targets. Right now bulls are still creating gaps below and that’s bullish af. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-11: I need to stop playing the top picking game. This trend is so beyond anything. Disgusting also. Big bull wedge on the daily chart has to break down and if we can close below 21900 again, I will look for lower targets. I still think this is a blow-off top and will be the exhaustive end of the trend but that believe does not help when the market is only going up. 19600 is my minimum bear target for this year. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the open and holding because the low 21969 held, which was only couple of points below the Globex low.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strong bull trend from the open and I now have several measured moves that lead to 21800 and 22k. It would be surprising if bulls could not get it tomorrow or Friday. Can only get bearish again below 21550ish. current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21550. key levels: 21400 - 22000 bull case: Bulls continue with higher highs and higher lows but the highs are barely higher. They will likely get another ath over the next 2 days but the upside will probably be very limited around 22k. Pullback has to stay above 21550ish but best would be to stay above 21600. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: If bulls can not claim 21800 tomorrow, I do think we have a decent chance of a big reversal but for now, bears have completely given up and they need a bull trend line break to turn market neutral again. Invalidation is above 22100. short term: Bullish for 22k if we stay above 21550ish and if we get 21800 tomorrow early. 22k is possible over the next 2 days. medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying anywhere I guess.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Gap is still open but bulls making higher lows. Can go both ways tomorrow and it will probably be another news-driven impulse. 50% retracement is 21560 on my chart and we are close to it, so don’t try to be clever and think you know which way the breakout will happen. Odds are even. Wait for it an hop along. current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21600. key levels: 21000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls making higher lows but failed to close the gap. I don’t think we have seen strong selling at 21600 but since we have not moved down either, bulls chances of a breakout are as good as those for the bears. Bull targets are 21650, then 21755 and finally 22000. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: I won’t make stuff up here. below 21550 bears are favored again but for now they are obviously not doing enough. First target is 21500 and then 21400. If 400 won’t hold, we quickly move down to 21200 again. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Bullish above 21600 for 700/800. If we break below 21450, we will likely test 400 and then if bears are strong, below 21370 we go for 21200 again. Most likely is a continuation sideways between 21370 - 21550. medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying the double bottom 21400. Big bars with huge tails below at a big round number. Just buy it.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Huge gap down and bulls tried their best in making this an endless pull-back. Bears defended the gap to 21800 and even the Globex gap to 21700. As long as that stays open, bears can dream of a second leg down or at least retesting the lows. current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21600. key levels: 21000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls bought the lows and closed the day 200 points higher. We have a clear bull wedge/channel up and as long as we don’t break below support, bulls can have an endless pull-back and move higher. Problem for them is that they were to weak to close the gap to 21700/800. Bulls now need to stay above 21450 and continue higher. If they poke couple more times at 21550, it will likely break and we move quickly higher. Bulls are not favored though. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears kept the gap open, Hooray. They need to break below 21450 and the bull wedge. Targets below are today’s open price 21398 and then 21200. My daily chart has a third bear target at 21080 and xetra closed 21428. The daily 20ema is there and a big open bull gap. Futures came very close to it, so it’s possible that this was all the bears get for now. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Bullish above 21600 for 700/800. If we break below 21450, we will likely test 400 and then if bears are strong, below 21370 we go for 21200 again. Most likely is a continuation sideways between 21370 - 21550. medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 21400 was decent for many scalps.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much news. Trade the bull channel until broken. I won’t try to pick the top again. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 21400 - 22000 bull case: Bulls next targets are 21800, 900 and the next big number 22000. We are in a clear bull channel and bulls are in full control. Longs closer to the 1h 20ema are printing, so trade them until they stop working. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears doing absolutely nothing right now. Below 20400 we would have clearly broken out of the channel and best bears could hope for then is sideways to down movement to 21200. For now I don’t think you should even thinking about shorting any of this. Invalidation is above 22100. short term: Bullish on pull-backs and target 21800 and then 22000. Still only scalps though. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buy anywhere.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears fumbled again, who could have known. Can’t hold the full bear mode when seeing this price action. Weak wedge rally up to ath now with decent sell spikes in between. Don’t try to pick the top. Let the market show you clearly it wants to go down again, like it did on Friday. Until then, long pull-backs because market is just going up. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 21300 - 22000 bull case: Bulls want a new ath and print 21700. If bears step aside enough, we could actually get to 22000. The bull wedge is the pattern to trade until clearly broken. I doubt bulls will let this drop below 21500 before we see 21700. My second target is 21800 and last one is the obvious 22000. No idea where this might turn again but for now you should not think about bigger shorts. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears sold new highs but that’s about it. The bull wedge is broad enough for both sides to make money. Will we see bigger selling above 21600 tomorrow? I doubt it. Bears can only really think about bigger shorts if we break below 21500. If you have too many bearish thoughts, just look for more time at the daily dax xetra chart. Should go away then. Invalidation is above 21700. short term: Bullish on pull-backs and target 21700 or higher. Only scalps though. I still think this will crash at least 20% over the next months but for now I am not willing to risk being wrong about the top and having to scale in 500-1000 points higher. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying any dip or selling any new high. Sounds way easier than done but that’s what happened today. Market respect the trend lines perfectly. Show those charts to people who say technical analysis is whatever.
EUREX:FDXS1!Long
by priceactiontds
2025-01-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Perfect selling down to 21200 but the pull-back is tough for bears. Futures would need to immediately sell-off from 21500 to keep the bear case alive but above 21520 we print a new ath and maybe some more. Only below 21400 one can be bearish again. current market cycle: bull trend but could have ended today. market needs to print a lower high around 21500 and sell-off hard again. key levels: 21000 - 21700 bull case: Bulls prevented a really bad day and closed the gap at least in the US session. Very important day tomorrow. Ff they can keep it above 21400, we could see more upside but I doubt it will get much beyond 21644 if we get there at all. On the daily tf it looks like a perfect retest of the bull trend line we broke above last Wednesday. Invalidation is below 21000. bear case: Bears have to keep this below 21500 or we see more upside. RTH close was 21392 and futures open has to be bearish af to keep the bear case alive. Got nothing more for the bears here. Either continue to the downside now or we will stay at the highs for longer and likely make new ones. Invalidation is above 21500. short term: Neutral. Need to see futures open and if bears can keep it below 21500. Bullish above and bearish only below 21400. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Selling before EU open or buying EU open. The open was neutral enough to not short the hole and longs were fine once we strongly broke above 21300.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bull channel/expanding triangle, doesn’t matter. Trade it until clearly broken. No one knows how high this can go and I said, until we clearly see consecutive big bear bars, bulls are in full control and you should look for longs instead of shorts. Market is beyond overvalued and overbought but that does not matter for now. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 21000 - 21500 bull case: Bulls are in full control. No one know’s where it stops. Look for longs. Bears have spikes and that’s it. Bulls are buying everything and just melting this higher. Invalidation is below 21000. bear case: You can not start looking for shorts until bears have closed a 1h bar below 21000. This is probably true for most traders. Are you 1 in a million and can make money trading both sides on this? Good for you but for the rest of us, we better come with easy to follow, tested and profitable strategies and try to survive. Trend is your friend. Don’t fight it. Was I wrong about the bearish outlook? Timing-wise, yes. But that will never stop me form changing my mind and trade what’s in front of me. I am here to make money and not to be proven right. Invalidation is above 21500. short term: Bullish until bears do more. Trade the channel. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying big previous support around 21000.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bull channel is what you should trade for now. I do think the top is near though. My plan for tomorrow is to see if market stalls more around 21170/21200 and if bears come around to short this down to 21000 again. There I expect bulls to appear again and try another higher high. The bull channel is valid until broken and if bears could break it, first target would be 20850. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20900 - 21200 bull case: Bulls want to continue inside the bull channel. That’s it. Look for pull-backs to long if bulls print a good signal bar. 21200 is my max target though, so I don’t expect market to go much beyond. Invalidation is below 20100. bear case: Bears need to break the bear channel. That’s also everything there is to this right now. Bulls are in full control until then and you should look to long this much more than shorting. It’s overbought, climactic, bubbly, yesyesyes and all of that. Does not matter one single bit until we clearly see much bigger selling pressure. Invalidation is above 21250. short term: Neutral in the middle of the channel but otherwise bullish until bulls clearly lost interest buying above 21000. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. Bears need to do much more before I want bigger shorts again. trade of the day: Buying 21000 has been profitable 3 times today. Trade the channel.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Strong by the bulls to keep the Globex gap open to 20326 but they failed at finding acceptance above 20420. We continue sideways until one side clearly gives up. We are still close to the middle of the bigger triangle so shorts need a stop 20622 and that’s far away. I still slightly favor the bears to rather trade back down to 20200ish than above 20500. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20200 - 20500 bull case: Bulls want to stay above 20300 and continue upwards to test 20500. They are in control as long as the Globex gap stays open. Bulls are also above most important 20ema and that means they are in control of the market. Their issue is, that they can’t find more buyers above 20400 and all daily bars since last week have decent tails above them. Bulls will only try so many times before more give up and want to short lower again. Invalidation is below 20300. bear case: Bears have a decent head & shoulders pattern that could break down over the next days. The measured move target is around 20150 which was Monday’s low. First target for them would be to close the gap to 20320 and close a 1h bar there. Bulls have bought every touch of the 1h 20ema and until that changes, we continue sideways to up. Problem for the bears is, that we could go up to 20500 or even 20550 to hit the bigger bear trend line. That stop is far away and likely a reason why bears scalp out near support. Invalidation is above 20500. short term: Neutral 20300 - 20400. Bears need a strong move below 20320 and bulls need to find acceptance above 20420. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: Scaling in and out of shorts. In above 20450 and out where market shows support (currently 20350). trade of the day: Buying close to the Globex gap was good for many longs. Also selling close to 20500 was a no-brainer since market went mostly sideways before and we had huge prior resistance 20500 and above.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Can’t write much new stuff. Still neutral between 20200 and 20300. Bulls were not strong enough to close the gap to Friday’s close but bears were not strong enough to keep it below 20300. We have a clear triangle on the daily tf between 20150 and 20500 and I do expect the market to continue inside for 1-3 more days. Very strong US session close and above 20300 I expect follow-through to 20400/20450ish. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20100 - 20500 bull case: Bulls want to close the gap to 20350 tomorrow and then more up to 20400/20450 and test the bear trend line. I highly doubt they can break above and test 20500. We stayed above the big bull trend line and the daily 20ema, so bulls did what they had to do. Market is contracting and that means a couple more days of sideways price action before another big breakout. Invalidation is below 20100. bear case: Bears tested the bull trend line but quickly gave up trying to push this below. Best they can get now is sideways and staying below 20350/20400. If they can manage, we can poke more at the bull trend line until one side gives up. My medium term bias is bearish, so I expect the triangle on the daily tf to break out below. Invalidation is above 20500. short term: Neutral 20200 - 20300. Bearish below for 20150 and bullish above for 20400. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: Took most off at 20180 and want to short again closer to 20400/20500. trade of the day: Selling the open because the selling pressure was very strong. Market then went sideways too much around 20200 and taking profits was reasonable. Buying the breakout above 20230 was also decent.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Bearish af. Bulls overextended and squeezed probably most shorts. High tick was exactly the same price 20533 we did before the big sell-off down to 19831. Small chance bulls retest 20500 tomorrow but I don’t care. I will continue to scale in and out of shorts with a stop 21000. Downside potential is to 20000 while upside is either very limited or we have seen the high today. comment: Amazing short squeeze. I started scaling into shorts way too early but came out green and holding on to swing shorts for 20k again. 4h chart shows two very strong legs up and there is a chance for a third but I doubt we make another high above 20533. My preferred path is the triangle and I will only look for shorts until we hit 20100 again. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20000 - 20500 bull case: Bulls did amazing today and made 300 points from today’s low. They want another strong leg up to retest the ath 20735. They are still inside the bull channel and we have left two open gaps, on the 1h tf (or above), below us. Bulls have also going for them that we are trading above all important ema and until bears start closing the gap to 20360, bulls are fine for now. Invalidation is below 20300. bear case: Bears stepped completely aside today and once they came around, it was not as strong as expected. 20533 qualifies for a lower high and it could be the top for now but bulls have way more arguments on their side as of now. Once bears start closing 1h bars below 20390 and then 20350, their chances get better for a reversal. Bull trend line needs to be broken early tomorrow or we continue sideways at the highs or even make a higher one. I still have only interest in shorts and will happily scale into shorts. Invalidation is above 20550. short term: Neutral 20400 - 20500 and bearish above. Will continue to scale into shorts above 20450. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: Short. Avg price for shorts is 20450 now for me. trade of the day: Long since EU open was pretty good.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral between 20200 and 20300. Bullish above for retest 20360/20400 and bearish if we break the nearest bull trend line. Max for bulls should be 20460ish and bears could get all the way down to 20000 again. Both sides have reasonable arguments and I don’t know if we test higher before lower. What I do think is that the bear gap to 20455 is probably going to stay open, so shorts closer to 20400 are good. comment: Two legs up with huge rejections. Bulls closed at the high but they failed to close the bear gap to 20455. Until bulls can close it, I will scale into shorts above 20340ish and take profits on decent drops. Middle of the range is now 20200 and I do think it’s possible we hit that tomorrow or Wednesday. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20000 - 20500 bull case: Bulls need to close the bear gap and are then free to retest higher. We have an expanding triangle and nested bull wedges but market also did not respect a bunch of trend lines today. If anything, the very strong buying followed by deep pullbacks is confusing and odds are much higher that we continue sideways instead of up above 20500. Bulls should not let the market drop below the breakout price 20180 or we are in balance again and bulls would probably look to only long lower (closer to 20000). Invalidation is below 20180. bear case: Bears could not even close the globex gap and market rallied 300 points higher. Bears did a decent job with the deep pullbacks to shake out weak traders and make bulls take profits at new highs. That increased the odds that we are in a trading range and will likely move more sideways instead of up. Bears need to get a 1h close below the ema again and break the closest bull trend line. Next targets below are close of last week 20045 and then the big round number 20000. Invalidation is above 20460. short term: Neutral 20200 - 20300 and bearish above. Will continue to scale into shorts above 20350 and take profits near 20200 or below. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: Short since 20359. Will add near or above 20350 again. Stop for all shorts is 21000 for now. Will scale in and out of this over the next days/weeks. trade of the day: Globex low held and market showed 4 big rejections below 20100. Bar 44 was signal and entry bar because it broke out of so much, you just had to get long.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral between 20000 - 20100, Bearish below 20000. Bears tried to break down the bear flag and make new lows but failed above 19900 and bulls retraced 50% of it. Good for bears is that they kept the 1h 20ema resistance and xetra closed the year below 20000, which is a sell signal going into January. Bulls did a good job at retracing more than 50% of the sell-off the keeping it above 20000. Market formed a triangle so buy low and sell high inside it. Below 19900 we could see an acceleration downwards and I see the chance of that happening much greater than going above 20160 again. comment: Xetra closed below 20000 and that was very important for the bears. The December bar is now a nasty reversal bar and once we make new lows below 19800, bulls can’t hold long since we could easily pull back down to 19100 - 19400. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19800 - 20200 bull case: Bulls do not have much going for them currently, other than keeping the market close to 20000 and that means above the breakout price for the recent bull leg. They have to keep this above 19800 or this bull leg was indeed the exhaustive end of this bull trend and market will test lower. Bulls would need a daily bull bar closing above 20000 to begin with. Invalidation is below 19800. bear case: Bears are in control but not as strong as I hoped they would be. Daily bear bars all have tails below but at least bears have now printed 5 consecutive bear bars. This looks clearly like a bear flag about to break down after the strong selling from 20500 down to 19800. Confirmation would be a daily close below 19800 and bears next target then is 19500 and testing the bull trend line. Bulls would have to break above two bear trend lines to start making the market neutral again. Invalidation is above 20160. short term: Neutral around 20000. Bearish below 19990 and uber bearish below 19900 for 19800 or lower. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling the pull-back at 20100 down to 19900 was good. Buying 19900 second best trade today.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bears defended the Globex gap and market stayed below the lower bear trend line, which we broke below on Thursday. Very good for the bears but since we opened and closed near Friday’s close, market is in balance for now. Bears need to break below 20000 and bulls above 20150. Clear support and resistance, so play the range or wait for a breakout. comment: Let’s try not to extrapolate more from today’s price action than there was. Open was 40 points below Friday’s close and US session closed 10 points above the EU open. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19800 - 20200 bull case: Bulls stopped the selling near the 50% retracement of Friday’s bull leg. Until they get a 1h bar close above 20150, the market is as neutral as it gets. Above 20150 there probably won’t be any resistance until 20250ish or even 20300. Invalidation is below 19970. bear case: Bears have going for them that they kept it below the channel we broke below from and below Friday’s high, which means we have an open Globex gap. Problem they have is that they tried 3 times to get below 19990 today and failed. Now market has made two credible higher lows and bears can not hold short once we get above 20140. Invalidation is above 20140. short term: Neutral around 20050. Very bullish above 20150 and bearish only below 19980. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 20060 and buying 20000 was good for much more trades than you should take.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bears confirmed the sell-off and bears are hoping for a second leg down. I lean to closing tomorrow near 20000 instead of a big second leg down tomorrow but I am open to surprises. Anything above 20150 would surprise me. comment : Bear confirmation and I got 2 measured move targets between 19750 and 19800. Can we get there tomorrow? Possible but not likely I think. We saw decent buying above 19900 and I think it’s more reasonable to expect a close of the week around 19950 - 20000. If bear gap from 20100 - 20200 stay open for the whole 100 points, it would show great bear strength and we could expect a bigger second leg down. Base case for me tomorrow is chop from hell. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19800 - 20200 bull case: Bulls tried multiple times and market still closed the US session at the lows. Best bulls can hope for tomorrow is to prevent the second leg down and stay above 19900. Invalidation is below 19900. bear case: Follow-through selling by the bears which is nice. For now I think it’s more reasonable for bears to take profits going into quad witching and that’s probably why we saw a bigger trading range today. Look at the 1h 20ema and if it continues to be resistance. Invalidation is above 20200. short term: Neutral around 20000 and very bearish below 19900. I expect this week to close a bit below 20000 and anything below 19900 would surprise me. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Chop chop. Best trade was probably selling the double top bar 54 (prev high was bar 35).
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
1
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion. Can the selling continue and accelerate? Yes. Can we also see a bigger bounce from 20000? Also yes. Not as easy to trade as you might think because bounces can be big and you have to trade really small. Huge volatility is not the time to swing for the fences. 19802 is the next target for bears (breakout retest) and chances are good that we get there. 20000 is a very important number and that is why the path leading down to 19800 could be choppier than your account is comfortable with. comment : Bull trend is likely over and I will give my bigger outlook on the next weekly update. US session closed it around 20000 and that price is the obvious magnet. 1h close below brings 19800 in play but it’s also possible that we bounce from here. Selling was strong enough that the best bulls can get over the next days is some sideways movement. Don’t short the hole. We have quad witching this week and markets can always do a huge pullback. current market cycle: bull trend is very likely over - expecting more sideways until end of 2024 before the real selling can begin key levels: 19800 - 20400 bull case: Bulls could be running for the exits to secure the profits. It’s hard to tell in quad witching weeks because prices tend to get distorted. In any case the upside will very likely be limited now. Best bulls can hope for tomorrow is sideways around 20000. Any bounce above 20200 would surprise me. Invalidation is below 19800. bear case: Huge day for the bears and they want to accelerate this down to trap many late bulls. 19800 is the breakout retest and their next target. If we drop below, this could get really nasty. 19600 is close to the big bull trend line and other markets have already broken theirs, so it could happen this week. If you still have long positions, I would not hope for a huge year end rally and just get out. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: Neutral around 20000. Bears need follow through down to 19800 and they can get it but always remember, markets can have huge pullbacks and huge volatility comes with big risk, so trade small. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Choppy EU session and it closed near the open. FOMC totally changed the markets and now it comes down to tomorrow’s follow through by the bears. No trade of the day. You could not have known what Jpow says and how markets react. Don’t fool yourself.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-12-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Third consecutive bear bar on the daily chart but the selling is weak. Bears barely push the market down and we are still 200 points above 20000. The bear channel held but chances are decent that it breaks tomorrow and we either go more sideways 20200 - 20400 or test 20500 again. comment: Bears made new lows, which is nice but the pullback is still minor on the daily chart. Anything below 20200 would surprise me and then we could see some acceleration down to 20000. Much more likely is a break of the bear trend line around 20300 and a retest of 20500+ current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20500 bull case: Bulls buying all the dips and it’s probably just a matter of time when the bears give up again. All bear bars below 20300 look weak and bears have tried 6 times now to break below the channel and have failed. Bullish targets for tomorrow are 20300, 20370 and then 20500. Invalidation is below 20200. bear case : Bears are trying but getting nowhere. Best they can hope for tomorrow is sideways between 20200 - 20300. How likely is it that Jpow grows some, tells the markets they are insane and no more rate cuts? Yeah. Invalidation is above 20600. short term: Neutral 20200 - 20300. Bullish above for 20400 or higher. Bearish below 20200 for 20000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the open and then selling at the bear trend line. The move down accelerated at a weird time and price, so I cut my profitable shorts too early. FML.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-12-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bulls tried 4 times to push above 20450 and failed. Bears did not take advantage and we printed higher lows. As of now it looks like 20400 is the neutral price for tomorrow but I expect a bigger range to both sides before we settle probably somewhere around 20400 again. Any close at the extremes to either side would surprise me. comment: Clear trading range 20300 - 20500 until we strongly break above or below. For tomorrow I think we can do a retest of the ath 20506 and maybe even a breakout below the channel and test 20350 or lower. I do not expect the week to close to at either extreme. 20400 is the 50% of the current range and the biggest magnet for now. Tomorrow is quad witching. So don’t mess up your trading week getting trapped. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20500 bull case: Market is not finding enough buyers above 20450 but bulls are still eager to not let the market make lower lows. Invalidation is below 20300. bear case: Bears are content with selling 20450 and that’s about it. We are far above the daily 20ema and bears have only printed 2 daily doji bars. That’s as weak as it gets. Higher prices are still possible. Only a daily close below 20k would help their case. On the 1h chart one could argue that we had 3 legs up inside the current bull channel and market is free to test lower but where are the consecutive strong bear bars? Bears are weak. Invalidation is above 20520. short term: Mostly neutral but we are making higher lows and higher highs. Expecting a bigger range for tomorrow but any close above 20500 or below 20380 would surprise me. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low sell high inside range or just don’t trade at all. Atrocious day.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
5
2024-12-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Weekly outlook on point. 20506 was the max and we have seen the start of profit taking today. I expect 20200 to be hit tomorrow or Wednesday but it will be a choppy way to get there. We have an ugly head & shoulders on the 30m/1h tf and the measured move goes to around 20200. Close is always close enough. It’s possible that we retest 20500 before another leg down, so don’t short the lows, unless there is a clear and strong break below. dax futures comment: Clear trading range 20300 - 20500 until we strongly break above or below. Bears closed at the lows, which is good for them and fits with my weekly outlook. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20500 bull case: As long as bulls keep it above 20300, they are good. They want to keep the market in a tight trading range near the ath. That’s about it. Got no higher targets for you. 20500 is beyond insane but we can go higher if we see another Santa rally after the pullback. Invalidation is below 20280ish. bear case: Bears want to print lower highs and trap late bulls. If they strongly break below 20300 tomorrow, we could see some acceleration to bigger support. The poor structure between 19700 and 20300 is one giant spike that wants to be filled. For now I take it level by level. 20300 and then see if we can do 20200 and 20000 after. Invalidation is above 20520. short term: No bigger interest in shorting now lows but rather pullbacks, as long as we make lower highs. 20200 is my first target and if we go above 20400 again, I would only short 20500 again or on really strong momentum. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: 20478 was previous resistance and the open was 20480. Shorting it was the trade of the day.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-12-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral until we get a decent 1h bar close below the 20ema. 20400 is overbought on probably every metric known to man. Does this mean we will sell off tomorrow? Sadly not. Can go even higher, since bears not doing anything and the buyers are still making money because we print daily new ath. Chances are there for a deep pullback into the weekend but they are very low and we need strong confirmation first. Zero interest in buying this. comment: Break one bull wedge and print another. Bulls are still in control. Bears need a 1h close below ema , which would also be a break of the nearest lower bull trend line. 20300 tomorrow would be nice and anything below 20250 really bad for bulls. Got no more bullish targets for you. It’s a bubble. It will pop. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20400 bull case: Even beyonder overbought today. Can obviously continue but buying this is asking for getting trapped. Invalidation is below 20250. bear case: The 1h 20ema now hold for basically 1100 points. It will break over the next 1-3 sessions. 20300 is the first target for bears and they should finally stop the market from making daily new ath. Still a couple of bullish patterns that need to be broken first, before we can talk about two-sided trading or bears having arguments for lower prices. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: Only waiting for bears to come around. Zero interest in buying. Below 20100 into the weekend would be nice but it’s unlikely. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the open, duh. 1h 20ema held for more than a week now.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-12-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Not getting bullish above 20000. We have a clear wedge which will likely break tomorrow. Once the profit taking begins, it will be nasty. For now longs against the 1h 20ema are decent until we clearly break below and outside of the wedge. I doubt we close this week above 20000 tbh. comment: Trade the current bull wedge until broken. I expect that we will see a breakout tomorrow or Friday and I do think it’s possible that we close the week below 20000. The rally is beyond overbought and climactic. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20300 bull case: 20300. Beyond overbought. Can go some more but not much. High is near or already in. Invalidation is below 19700. bear case: Market broke above multiple patterns and chances are good that this is a bull trap and we will reverse soon. For now the bears have nothing but I expect a deep pullback soon. Maybe a pullback to 20000 tomorrow, retest of 20250 or even 20300 and then some more downside. Rough guess as of now. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: No more bullish targets. 20000 is the first pullback target and I think we will break out of the bull wedge tomorrow or Friday. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the open, duh. 20200 was good support, so longs against that paid multiple times.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds