EURUSD i think this is that reaction i talked about when the big drop was happening. When i said that i think that everyone is reacting thinking that the tariffs would be good and that i felt like it was a rug pull welp. I think this is that. I'll try to find the mind i mentioned it in.
US100USDJPY Hmm the yen carry trade has yet to regain its footing and its currently acting as a safe haven trade, that's negative for US risk assets. The Canadian dollar and Mexican pesos are weaking on trade war risk the irony is if you are trump this doesn't help your stated goals as those imports are now becoming even cheaper thus making your boycotted exports more expensive and less competitive while corporations will still pass on your tariffs to US consumers as inflation. The EURUSD however is appreciating on war resolution trades which in the short term will make European imports more costly for US consumers. This poorly thought out, uncertain and divergent geopolitical policy of trump is creating all types of dangerous rebalancing risks.
Ultimately trump's stated goal is to weaken the dollar in order to boost US export competitiveness while stoking US inflation as a seemingly acceptable consequence. Again though ironically tariffs don't achieve those goals as we've seen with Canada and Mexico's currency markets the US biggest trading partners.
As you might be able to tell the only way for US consumers to not get hit with inflation is to actually strengthen the dollar while removing all global trade barriers but domestic protectionism is in vogue again so instead you'll get policy that's bipolar and creates cross currents that themselves create unfavorable outcomes for all participants...
EURUSD i know no one cares but I'm looking for the big short too but the difference is i haven't put in a trade since yesterday...have i waited and miss my opportunity, plenty of freaking times, but i feel like a lot of you are making a wish upon a star that wont be fulfilled.... no one care if you win, so you know no one cares if you lose, so why lose....