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KCZ2019 trade ideas

Arabica Coffee Futures. The Canary in the Coal MineWith nearly 60 percent up path performance in 2024, Arabica coffee futures rose above $3.00 a pound, the highest mark since May 2011, as traders assess potential problems with next year’s crop in top producer - Brazil. Despite recent rains, soil moisture levels remain low, leading to limited fruit development and excessive leaf growth, local traders said. U.S. and European coffee lovers are getting ready to tighten their belts as natural disasters have hit the world’s two largest coffee-producing countries, causing commodity prices to more than double in the past five years. Droughts in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, and severe typhoons in Vietnam, the second-largest producer, have severely disrupted the global coffee supply chain, driving up production costs that are increasingly being passed on to consumers. In addition, there are reports that Brazilian coffee farmers are holding back shipments of coffee to the market in hopes of higher prices, leading to further shortages, tighter supplies of coffee on the spot market, and higher prices. Coffee is literally the “Canary in the coal mine,” signaling climate change, the ecological crisis, and its impact on agriculture. The idiom originated within the Industrial Revolution in England (back to late XVIII century), when coal miners, lacking modern gas-monitoring equipment, would take canaries (birds) into the coal mine with them. And when dangerous gases like carbon monoxide (which is odorless) accumulated in excess in the mine, they stopped the birds chirping and killed the canaries before killing the miners, thus providing a warning to leave the tunnels immediately. As some of the world’s largest coffee-consuming regions, coffee lovers in the United States and Europe will find the price hikes particularly hard to stomach. According to German consumer data company Statista, Europeans consume about 3.2 million tons of coffee a year, accounting for nearly 33 percent of the world’s total coffee consumption, while Americans drink 400 million cups of coffee daily (which equates to 146 billion cups of coffee consumed in the United States each year, or nearly four cups a day for every American adult). In fact, coffee is more than just a morning ritual in the United States; it has become a cultural and business driver. But understanding the depth of America’s love affair with coffee may be as complex as the drink itself, and of course, more complex than the current coffee prices. Natural disasters have taken a heavy toll. Brazil, which accounts for about 40% of the world’s coffee production, is battling one of its worst droughts in decades. Dry conditions have severely impacted Arabica-growing regions, reducing yields. The 2023–24 crop cycle is already seeing a sharp drop in production, with some estimates suggesting output could fall by as much as a fifth (20%). The impact is being felt most acutely in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-producing state and home to high-quality Arabica, which has seen months of lower-than-normal rainfall. Brazil’s farmers are battling the country’s worst drought in seven decades and above-average temperatures. While Brazil dominates the Arabica market, Vietnam is the world’s leading producer of the cheaper Robusta beans used in instant coffee. Earlier this fall, Typhoon Yagi devastated the country’s main coffee-growing regions in the Central Highlands, killing at least 60 people and injuring hundreds more. Thousands of hectares of coffee plantations were estimated to have been damaged, leading to significant losses in both the current crop and future production potential, as the damaged trees will take years to recover. A perfect storm of environmental concerns has driven prices to all-time highs, above US$3.00 per pound of coffee beans. The combined impact of drought in Brazil and the typhoon in Vietnam has sent global coffee prices soaring. The International Coffee Organization (ICO), an intergovernmental body made up of coffee-exporting and -importing countries, reported that prices rose nearly 20% in the third quarter of 2024, reaching their highest level in nearly a decade. The ongoing effects of climate change make a quick return to stability difficult. The sector remains vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, which could further disrupt future harvests. In addition, growing global demand, particularly in emerging markets such as Asia, could continue to put upward pressure on prices, further slowing recovery efforts. As the world’s two largest coffee producers struggle to recover from the crisis, the outlook for the global coffee market remains uncertain. Climate change is reducing the area of ​​land suitable for growing coffee crops, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, creating a range of challenges for the sector and coffee drinkers in the US and Europe. In technical terms, the main 12-month graph of coffee prices indicates another buyers attempt to storm the round, 250-cent mark. Since the price is near to consolidate by the end of the year above this round number, it can contribute to a further rally and multiple price growth in the foreseeable future.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Pandorra
Will Today’s Coffee Market See a 15¢ Drop Like April 18?The coffee market is currently testing its support range around 240-260, but recent patterns suggest a bearish outlook. Looking back at April 18 and September 6, we saw sharp price drops of 15¢ and 10¢, respectively, in a single session—both on the back of bearish signals that are resurfacing today. With the added downward pressure of typical Monday trading, today’s movement could follow a similar path, potentially driving prices down to 233 or even challenging the lower blue band at 230. If the price breaks below 230, it would signal a shift in momentum and open the door for further declines. I should watch for strong volume on any drop below this level, as it could confirm a break in support and set a new range in motion. Given my strategy to enter on a reversal bar, consider waiting for confirmation that price has indeed tested or broken the support around 233 or 230. If the price drops to those levels, look for a reversal signal—such as a bullish engulfing or hammer pattern—forming at or just below these key support zones. My entry level: Short Strategy First Level: Follow advanced school run strategy as it is quite a break-out set-up. Second Level: Reversal bar around Yesterday High 249 Long Strategy First Level: If the price reaches around 233 and shows a reversal bar with strong buying volume, this could be a favorable entry. Second Level: Should the price break to 230 and quickly rebound with a clear reversal pattern, this would serve as another possible entry point.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Qmtrader90
1
Arabica Coffee Futures Uptrend: The price appears to be in an uptrend, especially in the most recent period. The price has broken out to the upside and is continuing higher, with higher highs and higher lows. Support is visible around the 300.00 level, where price previously consolidated. Resistance may emerge near the 330.00 level, where the price is currently approaching. The price is trading near the upper Bollinger Band, which may suggest that the market is overbought. However, during strong uptrends, prices can stay near the upper band for an extended period. The bands are expanding, indicating increasing volatility, which often accompanies trending markets. There has been a noticeable increase in volume during the breakout phases, particularly in July and September. This signals that the current price moves are supported by market participants, adding strength to the trend. Consolidation and Breakout: The price experienced a period of sideways movement (consolidation) before breaking out around late August. This suggests that bulls are gaining strength. Candlestick Patterns: There seem to be several bullish candlestick formations near the recent lows, supporting the current rally. The short-term trend is bullish, with potential for the price to continue rising if it clears the 330.00 level resistance. However, as the price is near the upper Bollinger Band, there could be a short-term pullback or consolidation before continuing higher. If a retracement occurs, look for support around the moving average or near the 310.00–300.00 range, which aligns with previous consolidation zones.
BMFBOVESPA:ICF1!Long
by Sahrin
Bitcoin coffee soybean oil9. 17. 24 in this video I am following up on some comments that I made yesterday. I was looking for these markets to trade in a certain direction but I couldn't initiated trade for various reasons that I explained. it turns out that the next trading day the market produced the trigger for those markets to go higher and I want you to see how that works. if you think you have a good setup a lot of times the market will give you the trade but it's better to wait for the proper trigger then it is to just blindly go into a market that you generally think is going in a Direction but you're not really seeing exactly what you want and I believe that kind of thinking will create tremendous frustration for the trader. and the good thing is you will be able to find trades ahead of time and this is a good thing as long as you are not impulsive and are willing to give the market some time to give you a better probability that you'll be correct if you wait.
ICEUS:KCZ2024
by ScottBogatin
Coffee Futures: Bearish Confluence Indicates Potential Short PosIn the coffee futures market, recent analysis reveals a significant bearish outlook. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that commercial traders are holding major short positions. Additionally, seasonal patterns suggest a tendency for bearish momentum during this time of the year, further reinforcing the downtrend. Technical Analysis and Confluences Supply Area and Fibonacci Levels: Price Action: The price has reached a key supply area, suggesting a potential retest and subsequent decline. Fibonacci Confluences: Various Fibonacci retracement levels align with this supply area, adding strength to the bearish case. Momentum Indicators: Overbought Conditions: On the H4 timeframe, momentum indicators such as the RSI show that the market is currently in overbought territory. This typically precedes a price correction or reversal. Seasonal Trends: Historical data indicates that coffee futures often experience bearish pressure during this period. This seasonality aligns with the current technical setup, suggesting that the market could follow its usual pattern of decline. COT Report Insights: The COT report underscores that commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are heavily short. This position by commercial traders can be interpreted as a strong bearish signal, given their historical accuracy in forecasting market movements. Trading Strategy Given the combination of a bearish COT report, seasonal trends, and technical indicators showing overbought conditions and resistance at the supply area, we are considering opening a short position in coffee futures. Key Points for the Short Position: Entry Point: Around the current supply area, taking into account Fibonacci retracement levels. Stop Loss: Just above the supply area to manage risk. Target: Based on historical support levels and previous price actions, aiming for a significant downward move in line with seasonal and COT report signals. By aligning our strategy with these confluences, we aim to capitalize on the anticipated bearish momentum in the coffee futures market.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by FOREXN1
2
Coffee Primed for a DeclineLike FOREX pairs, commodities are often very long to correct and have blow off tops. While I'm not certain on the long term count, I can isolate a highly probable next move in a flat pattern visible clearly on the daily timeframe. Where that flat pattern fits in to the bigger picture doesn't much matter. As Elliotticians, we want to "catch the three." As in, wave 3 is often a very powerful move. As can be seen by the chart below, it's a very reasonable and highly confident setup that Coffee will initiate a nice decline.
NYMEX:KT1!Short
by ChartWizardTrading
Coffee 5.3.24 this is a short video on coffee which is an expanded market and they are the best markets to trade if you could identify the trade location for buyers and sellers. I would be looking for buyers in this market to take a long position... but on the current swing we don't see buyers yet. But we set it up having a strategy and using our tools and now we can take a look on Monday to see what the market does.... and whatever it does especially if it doesn't find buyers we will go back and look at it to see what we should do next.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
1
US Coffee - Clear Buy with S/L 186; Big move aheadEntry Level: $190 Stop Loss: $186 Target: $195-$199.00 Analysis: The current entry level for initiating a short-term long position in US Coffee stands at $190. A prudent risk management strategy suggests setting a stop loss at $186 to mitigate potential losses in case of adverse price movements. The target range for this long position is set between $195 and $199.00. This target zone reflects the anticipated price movement based on technical analysis indicators and market dynamics. Traders should closely monitor price action and key support/resistance levels to assess the validity of this trading opportunity and adjust their positions accordingly.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by astroduniarp
COFFEE : BULLISH BREAKOUT TO COME ?- The market has been trading under a bearish trend line since the beginning of 2022. However, since October of the same year, prices have slowed their decline, trading within a 62$ wide range. The trend is therefore neutral in the long term. - Prices continue to dance within their range, having registered 2 impacts on each of the two bounds. Both moving averages remain in bearish configurations after their last crossover, although currently below the market, within the intermediate support zone of the trading range. The RSI indicator indicates a growing appetite of bullish investors for the asset by displaying a breakout of its bearish trend line, now moving into the buying zone, well above 50%. - Although still in consolidation, the bullish alert given by the RSI allows us to envisage a bullish breakout of the trading range, which would unlock an upward potential towards $213.70, $239.16 then $259.0 by extension. The very short-term bearish configuration, however, tells us that a pull-back towards the intermediate support of the rectangle remains possible.
CLong
by ActivTrades
1