Natural Gas (Henry Hub) forum
NATURALGAS im confused are we shorting until the report , or now and after the report?
NATGAS Big changes. Long ass post. I'm more talking myself through my own thinking.Production for today is 103.2bcf
Exports are 14.3bcf
Over today the EIA forecast for the 1st week of December was revised down again by -100bcf.
This means the EIA report on the 1st week of December is expected to be -100bcf lower compared to the 5 year average.
The estimate is for a -165bcf withdrawal. The 5 year average is -64bcf
This is the lowest withdrawal on US record for the 1st week of December.
The next closest withdrawal was December 2002.
What is currently happening is what I was telling everyone about 3 months ago.
The Polar vortex is beginning to collapse.
At the same time, there are 2 High Pressure systems forcing all the cold air from the North Pole straight down into the US.
It's expected this will cause "Historical" snow fall and freezing temps.
It's possible that I'm wrong about $4 and we surpass it. Depending on how bad it gets, we could see $5 or $6. That's pretty normal price target during Polar Vortex collapse if you go back and check history.
The other unknown is the regular sabotage in Europe.
If any pipelines are damage or disrupted at all, you can bet we'll surge higher.
The Majority of US exports are to Asia right now. If they needed to provide more to Europe for any reason, the market get too tight.
If you don't catch this move on the way up, the short on the way down will be just as good.
I wouldn't try shorting this move until the weather shows signs of turning.
We will eventually get a pullback. My target is the 50ema on the 1 hour as support.
NGAS this is wild, i think the price is reflecting the russia/ukraine war?
NATURALGAS I have a post-it-note on my monitor from last month that reads Short NG near end of Nov. Is it end of Nov yet, or am I gonna regret this? Seasonality stats say Dec should be negative. 🤔😓
NATGAS.PRO.OTMS pumping before an expected bullish report...most likely will go down after it...way overbought
NGAS Start adding shorts..till natgas report release
NATGAS going on 3.445 today and tommorow if it breaks a 3.293. Next week is high propabilty to go on 4.0
NATGAS National Weather Service and Climate Prediction Center are calling for "Historic Snowfall" on the East Coast starting next week.Average 20 foot of snow for the North East Coast.
Models are showing blow average temps for the entire East Coast from next week until mid January.
We may hit my $4 target sooner than I thought.
And we haven't even seen Plaquemines or Corpus Christi Stage 3 open yet
NATGASUSD it is now touching monthly resistance.NATGAS Today's EIA injection forecast.Consensus is 4bcf injection. Last injection of the season.
5 year average is -19bcf.
The data I have suggests a 3bcf injection.
But, forecasts for these EIA injections have been wrong literally all year.
Take it all with a grain of salt.
I'm personally not touching longs anymore as they've become very expensive to maintain, and the risk is starting to outweigh the reward.
Chart is starting to look like Nvidia