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UK NBP Natural Gas Calendar Month Futures (Apr 2025)UK NBP Natural Gas Calendar Month Futures (Apr 2025)UK NBP Natural Gas Calendar Month Futures (Apr 2025)

UK NBP Natural Gas Calendar Month Futures (Apr 2025)

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UKGJ2025 trade ideas

NATGAS Technical Analysis! BUY! My dear friends, My technical analysis for NATGAS is below: The market is trading on 3.819 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 3.970 Recommended Stop Loss - 3.740 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Nat Gas Report 3/29/25: Can you shoulder the shoulder? Well, after much fanfare it is finally here! No, not the SSW event, not the Liberation Day (Trump’s April Tariffs), but the shoulder season! That important time of the year for energy traders to watch the price of NG drop faster than Trump’s current approval ratings! The cyclical trade in energy warrants a movement of funds this time of the year to Crude oil, then eventually Gasoline. As discussed, a few weeks ago this constant movement in energy trades keeps the asset allocations inline with seasonal trends in energy usage and the funds fat and happy. But this year we have the ultimate monkey in the works, true market dynamics! Although with the upcoming Liberation Day tariffs starting this coming Wednesday, 4/2/25, the market once again is on edge with the unknown unknowns! As the broad equity market has sold off this quarter, we have seen a movement into commodities, especially NG (sorry Gold bugs!). The underlying weakness in global oil demand, and the inability for oil producing nations and majors to temper supply has led to a glut in worldwide crude stockpiling. Yesterday’s Crude Oil COT report showed commercials with a net short position of -208,888 (an increase in short positions by 3,580 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +197,061. This is not a common seasonal response in the Oil markets. Normally the December to May timeframe is a season of oil accumulation by major traders and the petro industry. This demand is not without purpose; it marks the onset of preparations for the impending summer driving season. Refiners embark on a strategic accumulation of crude oil inventory for gasoline production, laying the groundwork for oil price increases in the months ahead. But with softness in the overall global markets, downward revisions in GDP, Trump tariff uncertainty, and the big electrification to the transportation sector. There is a bearish undertone to the global oil and gasoline market this year. Remember what was discussed. The global nature of institutional energy traders is to trade crude in the spring (as NG sells off), gasoline in the summer (as oil sells off), NG in the fall (as diesel sells off), and diesel/heating oil in the winter (as gasoline sells off). This round robing of trades allows the savvy trader to expect entry and exit points, or to determine the overall direction of seasonal trends. But throw that out this year! The past few months NG and Oil have been trading inversely with each other, almost to the dollar! So, that leaves us with a tremendous amount of allocated worldwide capital in the one energy trade left. NG! But, not without merit! Natural Gas has a tremendous amount of underlying fundamental support. Lower than normal storage (currently 6.5% below 5-yer average), increasing power generation demand, increasing exports via pipeline to Mexico, increasing LNG export (currently hit a record at 16.7 BCF/d this week and expected to hit 18 BCF/d next month), and stagnant production (NG rig count down 9% y/y, oil down 4.5% y/y). The producers have finally understood that producing too much NG will probably affect the price in a negative way. Last week’s energy conference in Houston, TX had one general theme from all the energy majors. Supply restraint/discipline and an increase in infrastructure. There must have been some concerted effort, because the catch phrase all week was not “Drill baby Drill” but “Build baby Build” The discussion was that Trump’s lowering of barriers for pipeline construction and LNG export facilities is what is going to give them a reason to drill. But, for the time being they need takeaway capacity. They will continue to keep rigs out of the field until that happens. Imports from Canada are at a 2-year low, due to the increase in heating demand in Canada, due to the SSW event taking hold up north. Increasing demand, stagnant production = higher prices! Weather related demand has decreased with the unusually warm March. But the SSW event is now affecting Canada. If not for the main Pacific Teleconnection, the EPO, this cold bottled up in Canada would have brought seasonal temperature to the US. But!!!!!!! Now the EPO(negative) Teleconnection is aligning with the SSW event and the models over the past week have been printing colder. I expect the month of April to end up below average. Which could possibly lead to one, maybe to more storage withdrawals, outside the withdrawal season. As of earlier this week, April is now projected to end the storage deficit created during the withdrawal season. But if we can head into the month of May with a continued deficit, we can expect elevated prices for the summer strip. The summer forecasts are currently coming out, which is showing dry and hot conditions from the Rockies west to the Mississippi River. The current storage deficit in the South Central region (-10.5%) and the Midwest (-16.2%), will be the main driver for price appreciation due to weather related issues. Years that had a SSW event in the months of March and April, statistically have very hot May and June months that follow. This kick start to the summer cooling season is another reason for the predicted elevated prices this summer. This is not 2024! Do not expect for historic low process to return, bar a pandemic or a worldwide global recession. There will be price volatility, but not a complete dropping of the floor price. Near term pricing: Ever since moving above the 100D SMA back at the end of December the 50D SMA has held up wonderfully as support during last four months. Since Tuesday the 50D SMA has continued to hold, except for a brief 12 hour period, but the price showed bullish support by retracing, touching and bouncing back off. The weekly low bounced off the lower SD of the BB. This another bullish conformation. The weekly low dropped below the 38.2% fib level and reclaimed upward momentum, another bullish sign, only to move up past the 50% fib level. The psychological 4000 level, another bullish indicator. When technical and fundamentals align, we should pay close attention and listen! I am watching 4170, 4252, and 4316 for my immediate term resistance levels. If 4316 is broken, the upper BB SD and the 78.6% swing retracement level 4570 is next. For support, 3953, 3854, 3729. If there is a break below the 3729 then the 23.6% swing retracement level at 3560 would be up next. I am of the belief that the market is expected to travel higher. But there are many reasons for continued range bound days. So, I will be setting these levels to range trade until I see an indication for otherwise. Keep it Burning!
NYMEX:NGK2025
by NrG_Trader
3
NATURAL GAS Channel Up getting ready for the next Leg to 6.600Natural Gas (NG1!) has been trading within a Channel Up since the August 27 2024 Low and right now it is consolidating on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The last Higher Low was priced on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which isn't far of, actually it sits at the bottom of the Channel Up. Given the strong symmetry on the Channel's initial Bullish Legs (+61.23%), we expect the new rally that is about to start to also reach the 1.618 - 1.786 Fibonacci extension Zone as the previous. As a result, we see NG at a minimum of 6.600 by June - July. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by TradingShot
Natural Gas Retests Trendline – Compression BuildingNatural Gas is approaching apex compression, holding above an ascending trendline while capped by a descending trendline from March highs. Price is testing the 50 EMA at $3.83 with a key horizontal level at $3.75 in focus. A break below could trigger downside to $3.43. On the flip side, a breakout above $4.00 could open a run toward $4.24. RSI at 37 supports ongoing consolidation with a bearish lean. Summary: ⚠️ Neutral bias in play. Watch for breakout above $4.00 for long, or breakdown below $3.75 for short toward $3.43.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by alibfx
NATGAS What Next? BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for NATGAS below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 3.964 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 4.197 Recommended Stop Loss - 3.852 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by AnabelSignals
2
NG1! NATURAL GAS SHORT TERM TARGETNatural Gas Price Forecast: Rises to Five Day High Natural gas strengthened on Wednesday and reached a five-day high of $4.25. The high for the day was a successful test of resistance around a trendline Following a breakdown from the trendline last week natural gas consolidated in a relatively narrow four-day price range, largely below the trendline and the 20-Day MA. Short term entry and targets We can chose ,because of volatility and high uncertainty,tariffs,news... between 2 profit targets If the 1st profit target hits,and NG reverses,possibility 1 to take profit If it passes through, we take profit at 2nd target. Entries: In case to entry currently Buy1 If pullback Buy2 If pullback deep Buy3 level. Alternatives: Entry 1 Buy1 Entry2 cover Entry3 Cover2
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by DaveBrascoFX
Nat Gas Report: 3/16/25 - Pre Summer outlook (scroll chart for info/data/charts. Info located between 2.200-5.500, 2019-2025. Sorry for the extra work!) The weekend calls paid off. I closed my 4.50 calls Monday AM, when the price failed to break the 4120 level. When the price popped, I entered a set of 4.50 puts which I closed this morning when the price approached the 4000 level. April has immediate support at the 4000 psychological level followed by the 3955 low of last week, an area tested twice before rallying. So, 4000 is supporting the price structure. This morning as the price struggled at the 4170 level, I entered my short, knowing that support sits at 4000. Once the price bounced around the 4030 level I again enter at block of four calls at 4.50, but on the May contract. The April contract is too dangerous to hold longer than a day due to the Greeks of the option, and the uncertainty of Trump. So, I now have a true strangle with a block of calls at 4500 and a half block of puts at 3300, on the May contract. I am thinking that I may close my puts if the price breaks below the psychological support of 4000/3950 on the April, and there is velocity to the down side. I am expecting that May should make it back to the resistance level 4320-4350 and back up to the 4500-4550 level. Tomorrow Trump and Putin and speaking and there should be some news about the proposed peace plan. My belief is that Putin is going to stall for more time, but the big test is if Trump will make good on his threats of banking sanctions! That is one of the reasons I am taking the hedge with the strangle. Strangles are great for high volatility. But, again, we will see the price react probably before the news hits! So big spike up rumors of no peace deal, big move down more rumors of peace. I do believe that we will see price move back to the higher resistance levels in May, due to production not keeping up with demand. There is not much wiggle room in the availability of supply, due to the low number of rigs pulled out of the field last year, and the low number in the field this year (check 3/13 post for info on rig counts). Supply/Demand Even with weak demand, storage remains tight compared to historical averages. The latest EIA report showed a larger-than-expected withdrawal of 62 Bcf for the week ending March 7, pushing inventories 11.9% below the five-year average. While this helped stabilize prices briefly, it has not been enough to drive a lasting uptrend. On the supply side, Wood Mackenzie estimated Lower 48 production at 104.9 Bcf/d Monday, versus a weekend average of about 105.5 Bcf/d. The about 600 MMcf/d drop was attributed mainly to Pennsylvania amid maintenance on Empire Pipeline Inc. Lower-48 dry gas production remains steady, averaging 107.1 Bcf/day, a 4.6% year-over-year increase. Total demand reached 77.0 Bcf/day, up 5.7% from last year. According to Wood Mackenzie data, LNG demand continued to hover around 16.0 Bcf/d on Monday. Additionally, after an uneventful 2024, LNG export demand has surged to new record highs as the new Plaquemines facility has rapidly ramped up volumes. Feed gas demand has repeatedly topped 16 BCF/day for five days in a row, including yesterday when flows were right at a new record high of 16.53 BCF/day, up +3 BCF/day year-over-year. Today’s feed gas demand was in at 16.38 BCF/d. Importantly, exports will continue to rise this Summer and Fall, potentially reaching 17-18 BCF/day, up to 5 BCF/day higher year-over-year, essentially countering the gain in supply. Along the same lines, while gains in natural gas production are fueling the large gain in year-over-year supply as discussed above, investors speculate that continued diminished drilling activity and less productive wells will ultimately lead to little production growth the rest of the year. As a result, the year-over-year gain in exports could rise while supply gains are narrowing, leading to a quickly tightening imbalance heading into the next withdrawal season. HH Spot was up another 22.5 cents today, signaling the demand for LNG feedgas. Which is helping to keep pressure on HH future contract. Cheniere Energy Inc. said Monday that the first train at its CCL expansion has been completed. It is the first of seven mid-scale liquefaction trains the company is adding at the facility. Mexico demand has also been solid. Mexico imported 6.679 Bcf/d of natural gas via pipeline from the United States on Thursday. South Texas flows accounted for 4.408 Bcf/d, according to NGI calculations. West Texas flows across the border into Mexico were 1.549 Bcf/d. Wood Mackenzie’s 30-day range for cross-border flows was 6.2 Bcf/d as of Wednesday. Average U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico this month are 6.59 Bcf/d, according to NGI calculations, on track for a record month. The weather wild card The models are now seeing the reaction to the atmospheric influence of the SSW event. The AO and the NAO are now predicted to go negative after this coming work week. This is being telegraphed in the models printing colder and adding more HDDs. It is my belief that we will continue to draw from storage up until the second week of April. This is the time of year where storage begins it injection cycle. This week is the official end to the withdrawal season, and when calculations are begun for the upcoming injection season before next winters withdrawal season. We are currently at 1.7 TCF in storage, second only to 2022. The current industry projections currently put us 200 BCF below 2022’s injection season. This is being influenced by the greater overall demand in LNG exports, exports to Mexico, and general power demand. And the lack of new production due to lack of drilling activity the past 12 months and the lack of pipeline infrastructure due to regulatory issues left over from the Biden Administration. The upcoming summer forecasts are predicting a hot summer in the south-central US, where NG storage is at 16.8% the 5-year average and the lowest in the 5-year period! This has a big impact on LNG production, Mexican exports, and most of all the main contributor to the HH spot price! The summer forward price strip reflects this with an average price of 4454. The most recent EIA STEO forecast predicts Henry Hub price will average around $4.20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, 11% more than last month’s forecast. This is price is not reflected by last week’s price spike to 4950, and the expectation is the next report will revise prices even higher! The current SSW event is happening during a period of the year where the days are longer and warmer. So, there is no expectation of any drastic events that should spike the price, like a Trump press conference on Tariffs! But the expectation is steady pressure on the storage numbers through the shoulder season, and the dry hot weather that is associated with the months that follow such an atmospheric event. From past years, we know that the month of May following SSW events, are very warm in the central part of the US. A very good indicator for increased demand. As such the south-central US is currently under going a serious drought, which should aid in the increase demand for cooling. As the lack of moisture in the ground will aid in daily night time temperatures exceeding historical normal. Demand on top of demand on top of stagnant production is a good sign for a similar set up to 2022. I am not predicting 2022 types of pricing, just a steady increase of pricing going into the US summer season. 2022 pricing spiked up to 64% of the yearly opening price. 2025 is currently up 29% for the year. 2022’s price highs were during the months of June and late August. I do see such a situation forming now, like 2022. But, again, Trump can Trump the Trump! So, this analysis is based only on my fundamental outlook for the next eight weeks, or two contract cycles. Since I am currently trading the April contract, I am only beginning to develop a strategy for the shoulder season and will trade accordingly, based upon the market fundamentals and the market pricing dynamics. Key levels I will be watch include support beginning at 3950-4000, 3875, and 3685-3730. My belief is that if the price breaks the 3875 level, it could get very ugly, very fast with all the longs piled into the market. There are many, many long positions that entered the market after the 4000 price was broken and I could foresee numerous margin calls and possibly mass liquidations. But to the upside I am looking at resistance beginning at the 4170-4200 level. From there 4290-4320 and 4430-4460. If there is velocity up to the prior gap, I can see trying to reach the very important level of 4750. Which by the way has a great deal of importance from the double peak form the previous highs of the last great swing. So, good fortunes and happy trading. Keep it Burning!
NYMEX:NGJ2025
by NrG_Trader
7