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NG1! trade ideas

European Gas March 2023: Bullish and Bearish FactorsThe idea has two parts: fundamental and technical analysis . The latter is based on the weekly chart. On the fundamental side , several essential and minor factors affect and could affect March 2023 price change. Let's divide them into three groups. Bullish : Russian shutdown of gas supply to Europe Russia has cut its European flows for the last months so that a total shutdown would be possible. Russian gas remains crucial for the European economy despite the American armada of LNG ships. Freeport LNG plant Restart Shift The company plans to restore the plant in January 2023. A possible postponement would support TTF prices in the winter season. Limitations of US Gas Exports Last winter, some US Senate members suggested limiting or prohibiting US LNG export. They estimated that the change would increase US gas supply for the internal US market, especially for New England, which is dependent on the import of gas from the gas-production states getting gas via pipelines and LNG. They said the prohibition would reduce high gas prices for customers and industry. In July, LNG winter 2023 prices for New England touched a record high of $40/MMBtu, while Henry Hub traded at about $8.6/MMBtu. I suppose that senators would return to the idea, especially since the US elections are in November. Although the risk is low, its realization could dramatically affect the TTF price assessment. Analysts and think tanks have considered possible Russian gas cuts but haven't accessed a potential US gas supply reduction. French Nuclear Plants Outages Since the end of 2021, the French nuclear industry has been weak with planned and unplanned maintenance. As a result, nuclear output has lost more than 40% YoY of its output. While serious issues are unlikely to arise, new minor obstacles could buoy TTF prices. Dry Summer The continuation of the European 2022 dry summer led to abbreviated hydropower production. On the back of hydropower reduction, natural gas-power generation increases its output and gas consumption, driving subdued gas injection into storage facilities. Subdued gas injection in summer means less gas for winter, creating a possible gas deficit. Bearish: Slowing European Economy and Demand Destruction High inflation induced by the monetary policy of 2020-2021 provokes a decline in real incomes and makes some industrial production unprofitable or near break-even. These debilitate aggregate demand, particularly industrial output of fertilizers, ceramics, and other chemicals. Industries that are heavily reliant on gas are cutting their gas consumption today. Lasting historically high gas prices would promote a decrease in gas utilization. The demand destruction could happen among all consumers: power, industrial and individual. A new recession is near. ECB monetary policy with a growing rate also adds problems to the economy. The rate is still tiny, but debt bubbles are sensitive to interest rate change. The bust of bubbles would drop economic growth and curtail gas demand pushing TTF prices down. Slowing world economy The world economy suffers from high prices losing economic growth momentum. A move into a recession would trigger a decline in gas consumption lowering LNG gas prices and letting LNG producers increase LNG sendout to Europe. Voluntary Demand Reductions of 15% and Gas Rationing Energy ministers of Europe adopted plans to voluntarily cut gas demand by 15% from August until March 31, 2022. In case of emergency, like near zero Russian flows, the voluntary reduction changes to mandatory. i.e., gas rationing. The actions could divert rising prices. Covid Lockdowns in Europe Europe has prepared different measures to withstand possible gas issues in winter. Besides voluntary reduction or rationing Europe could return to the lockdowns of 2020, when gas consumption dramatically went down because industrial production of goods collapsed. Since June 2022, the media has published news about a new variant of Covid. Countries could impose Covid-related limitations this fall. Unstable gas consumption and gas shortage would drive for a Covid or climate lockdown. A good measure to cut gas demand and destroy the economy. Covid Lockdowns in China Despite possible lockdowns of 2022-2023 in Europe, lockdowns in China happened in the last months and could be imposed again. An effect of prohibitions has hit the Chinese economy and cut gas consumption resulting in freeing up the supply for other consumers, i.e., Europe. New Chinese lockdowns would mean more gas for Europe. Joker : The joker that could be a bullish or bearish driver is the weather. They can't predict winter weather today. Lasting temperatures above season norms in winter could be a lifesaver for Europe, dropping gas consumption and its prices. Cold spells and lingering temperatures under the winter season average would lift prices significantly. Near-average temperatures would put the significance of the factor on hold. While in summer, it is vice versa. Temperatures above the norms slow gas storage injection and slightly increase a lack of gas risk in the winter season. On the technical side , there are no resistance levels cause the contract is traded near its record high. Only psychological levels like €200/MWh , €300/MWh , and higher. On the bulls' side, there are many support levels. For those practicing buy a bounce trading , essential levels are €125/MWh , €100/MWh , and €86/MWh . The last one developed in the December 2021-April 2022 period. I estimate that Gazprom made a significant contribution to its existence. Gazprom's export price to Europe, which was pegged to a fusion of lagged prices of fossil fuels, including TTF, was near to €86/MWh . So when the market price rose significantly above the level, market participants cut their demand because Gazprom sold cheaper. When the price tried to break through €86/MWh and went down, Gazprom trimmed its flows to Europe. All in all, this helped the company to control its revenues on the same level. Since then, it has not been the case because Gazprom has changed its approach. Finally, I am afraid to forecast the price on the expiration date. I suppose the price would remain volatile, and we could see spikes above €200/MWh in the winter season. Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
ICEEUR:TFMH2023
by Nikita_Kalinin
Feb 27,22-NG-Was 2 the bottom?Not sure if 2 was the bottom or not, but there was a support/resistance line around 2.3 so I put a Buy Order in on Fri at 2.350 to see if I can catch 500 points. So far so good but I might cash out shortly. We shall see. Question is....WAS 2 the bottom? Or will price just reverse this week and head back down to 2? Regardless, keep an eye on your trades - anything can happen and the recession is still coming(even though it's already here but most people don't want to admit it - AND - their realization hasn't shown yet in the markets). Trade safe, stay safe. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
QG1!2.27.23 Natural gas has had a rough ride lower that was good for Sellers but not so good for buyers... and we got burned with a small loss if we had taken the buy signal that I recommended. Right now the market is transitioning to a very narrow range, and that range has doubled. First it ranged, and then it doubled the range lower, and then it doubled back to the top of the initial narrow range. So there is some element of buyers at this level, but I would not take a long trade just yet. I would wait for the market to expand a little bit and possibly take a trade if It moves higher and then correct lower so that I could find a buying opportunity. I will have to let the patterns play out to make a decision.
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!
by ScottBogatin
2
Natural Gas prints an RSI bullish divergence As you can see in the chart, natural gas had a big downside movement for the last months. Now It looks like the bottom is printed so I will consider entering a long here with targets 3.11$ and 4.69$ . You can see apart from the Bullish Divergence that It is starting to show a lot of strength, you can observe a gap-up between 2.314$ and 2.415$. For the buy setup I will enter now and set an stop loss order under the gap. If the position goes well, I will keep locking profits manually trailing the stop under key areas. Don't forget to share your thoughts on the comments and happy emotionless trading.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by piccard54
When do you prefer to catch falling knives- nat gas up 9%Nat gas isnt a stock, its also a weird commodity. Its almost always oversold and cheap, and then all of a sudden its wrecking shorts. Remember James Cordier? the option seller who blew up his clients selling calls on nat gas? geez. tough. Any who, there momentum divergences in nat gas, showing the selling is slowing. theres lot of volume showing interest. I saw a guy on youtube saying he likes it. I saw a guy (well respected) saying hes taking a stab at it. today its up almost 10%. From past experience, its better to be late to the party. its better to be the 2nd mouse in the mouse trap, not the first. The first one gets dead, the 2nd mouse gets the cheese.
NYMEX:NG2!
by optionfarmers