SPX PRICE ACTION JAN05 2025Welcome to SPX weekly. I have discussed in depth price action of SPX and if you have any doubts feel free to leave a message or comment below.
NOTE:BE CAREFUL IF YOU ARE LONG
US500 trade ideas
SPX Crash Targetsit's important to zoom out frequently to gain some additional perspective. I've given some wild targets for the next 12-18 months and most probably think it's silly, but I can assure it is not. I don't have to be right and it may not be as bad as I think although I highly doubt that.
Either way, this is a one month chart going back to the late 90s with what I consider to be the most important longer term levels. It's very easy to get caught up in what's happening now and hopefully we've all made money on the rally, but the last two years has just been a final blow off that happened rapidly at the end of a 15 year bull run, not so significant in the end.
I don't actually know what will happen or how far it will fall, but TA can help with that. Maybe we will enter some sort of alternate dimension and it never falls, who knows. Seems extremely unlikely to me, but we'll see.
A summary of downside targets and potential paths I will look for:
- First target is going to be the ascending trendline from the dotcom peak to the 2021 ATH. A retest of this trendline should be the first stop and it would be a big correction. Many would expect this to be enough, but in reality we won't even be in a bear market until it is broken.
- Next two targets are the 2021 ATH and ascending trendline from the COVID bottom. This would put us around 4,800 and may be considered the most reasonable downside target before a recovery. I would also say that in reality we have not even entered a big correction unless these levels break.
- If we cannot hold the 2021 ATH, next stop is the ascending trendline from the 2009 bottom and the bottom in 2022 almost right at 3,500. Personally I think this is a reasonable spot to expect a bottom, but this would be the best scenario if you ask me. This would be bad, but not 1929 material.
- If we cannot hold 3,500 then it starts to get ugly and I see this as most likely. I think the ultimate bottom will be in a range anywhere from the COVID low down to the 2000/2008 peak. basically 2,200 - 1,500. It's at that point I think things will begin to turn around, but I still have hope for a bottom around 3,500 instead.
There you have it. I'm posting this now for you all to laugh at, I'm afraid the laughter and mockery will age like milk, but only time will tell. I hope I'm wrong and if I am, that's a win as far as I'm concerned. Remember, it doesn't matter how confident I am, if these major levels are not broken it won't happen and I won't bet on it, still playing the fluctuations and beginning to build longer term short positions for now.
Price will move from key are to key area as it always does. The fluctuations in between are largely insignificant and predicting how extreme the market may get and when is nearly impossible. I've been warning about this publicly since June, my timeframe has always been the fall of 2024 and after the first rate cut with a potential catalyst at any moment before. The market shrugged of all negative catalysts in classic fashion and we melted up instead obviously.
However, I think the extreme drops and volatility we have had are noteworthy. This is very similar to 1929 where in the months leading up to the crash we had several huge dumps that recovered in the same day. Highly unusual, eventually there will be no recovery. These events like in early August just show how overleveraged vulnerable the market is toa catastrophic margin call event.
TLDR:
I think I have posted enough on this topic, but I feel like I'm losing my mind seeing something like 90% of Americans say they do not expect a recession anytime soon so it makes me want to keep going. This is very concerning to me which is why I'm doing it, so maybe I can help educate and stop this from happening again in the future.
I don't have much hope unless we abolish the federal reserve, but maybe my efforts can help one person or a few at least. If we all continue to do nothing, we will forever be stuck in this dreaded cycle of engineered recessions and bull markets that are controlled entirely by a very small group of people who do not have America's best interests at heart and lie uncontrollably while they are doing it.
If you made it this far, thanks for reading. This is exactly what a major top looks like it, it could not be more obvious and I want teach people how to identify these things using the most basic tools such as the bond market and retail sentiment. Saylor is running back his dotcom ponzi bust at 10x the scale and it is terrifying. Retail is going to get rugged so hard on stocks and BTC, while having perhaps the highest investor confidence level in history.
Retail is all in on stocks and BTC with confidence soaring more each day as if it's impossible to lose. I have never in my life seen the bullish sentiment for something be so extreme as it is right now on BTC. This does not end well, it is just a matter of time. Maybe do some research on cryptography rather than repeating the same meaningless buzz words like "decentralized." I don't expect many will care or read what I say right now, but hopefully this archive of information I'm creating in the moment can be here to view in the future for educational purposes. Godspeed.
S&P 500 - Elliott Wave Count Since - 2009The S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed an extended Elliott - Impulse wave.
The movement began in March 2009 and counts as complete at the December 2024 peak.
Note the very long-term RSI double bearish divergence.
If this count is correct the SPX could be in a bear market that lasts into 2026.
Major support is the October 2022 bottom.
S&P500 - The Next 14 Days Will Decide Everything!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is about to break all resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of weeks, the S&P500 has been repeating the major breakout rally of 2021. Back then the S&P500 actually broke above the channel resistance and immediately rallied more than +15%. If we see the confirmed breakout, we will likely see the same thing happening again.
Levels to watch: $6.000, $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P500 First 4H Death Cross in 5 months! Is it bearish indeed?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a decline since Thursday and despite the thin holiday volume and less trading days, is a sign of weakness on the short-term. Especially having completed a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame on December 24.
In fact, this is the first 4H Death Cross in 5 months (since July 29). During that sequence, the index was under heavy seasonal selling pressure but initially rose following the Death Cross. Soon after though it collapsed lower on bad macroeconomics.
This time however, the trend turned bearish immediately after the Death Cross. The buy signal in August was the Aug 05 4H RSI Double Bottom. This time, the RSI has already started rising since yesterday.
In our opinion, this suggests that the selling pressure by the 4H Death Cross is most likely over and we can technically see the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up.
The most common % rise these past few months has been +7.19%. If we count that from the recent December 20 Low, then we should be expecting a 6200 Target by late January - early February.
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S&P500 Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in this week we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5650 zone, S&P500 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5650 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
2025 Stock Buyback CrashI think there's going to be a major stock market crash now. I drew a Schiff Pitchfork connecting the peak and bottom of the 2008 subprime mortgage crash to the peak of Covid-19. Why? I'm looking at the geometry of how the stock market reacts to large systemic human problems. Notice that SPX is now overbought in exactly the same region as the 2000 dot com bubble crash.
What is this thing I'm calling the "Stock Buyback Crash"? Well without getting too political, the name of the game in Capitalism in exploitation and grift. You can only pay your employees shit, fire huge percentages of your employees, and buy back your own stock to inflate your stock prices for so long before the game of chicken is up. Corporations haven't been reinvesting their surplus capital into improving their businesses. No, they've been artificially inflating their stock prices to get those sweet executive bonuses. Well, the bubble's about to burst. This whole system is a grift. I can highly recommend reading the book called 'Understanding Capitalism' by Richard Wolff.
SPX 2025 7000+ The most likely scenario.Experts who forecast stock market collapses and peddle narratives of financial despair often refrain from investing in the very concepts they promote; otherwise, they would face severe financial ruin on a repeated basis.
From the very beginning of this decade, I have championed a bold, risk-taking stance, predicting that these years will be remembered as the roaring 2020's, a time marked by an echo bubble of the 1920's.
This era is defined by the powerful convergence of technology, artificial intelligence, and blockchain, all propelling asset prices to new heights. The wealth generated by these colossal corporations and blockchain innovations is accumulating and concentrating, leaving behind individuals who are not part of these transformative trends.
Meanwhile, everyday people are grappling with a significant inflationary wave, as the value of their fiat currency continues to dwindle. To compound the issue, in 2024 around 150,000 workers have been laid off from giants like Tesla and Microsoft, a direct result of automation.
In this relentless struggle, machines are emerging victorious.
The age-old saying that markets lack a reason to rise but require one to fall or underperform holds particularly true, especially in the good old USA.
It’s reasonable to think that 2025 will not replicate the precise calendar movements of 2024 so it's prudent to lean towards performance tracking other years such as...
2017, the SPX return stood at 18%, marking it as the year that most closely aligns with 2025, the inaugural year of Trump's presidency.
Fast forward to 2023, where the percentage rose to 24%, making it the nearest reference point in the short term. As we are predicting a continuation of the bull market.
Meanwhile, 2021 reached a peak of 29%, representing the euphoric climax of that cyclical bull market, a scenario that could very well repeat itself in 2025.
The emerging pattern for 2025 appears to be shaped by these three pivotal years. Given that we are now nearer to the conclusion of the bull market than its inception, it seems prudent to draw insights from the trends of 2021 and 2023.
Understanding Window Dressing: What It Is and Why It Happens█ Understanding Window Dressing: What It Is and Why It Happens
At the end of every quarter or year, especially in December, some fund managers engage in a practice called window dressing. While it may sound like a holiday tradition, it’s actually a financial strategy designed to make a portfolio look more attractive to investors. Here's what you need to know:
█ What Is Window Dressing?
Window dressing happens when fund managers adjust their portfolios right before reporting periods. They sell underperforming stocks and buy high-performing ones to present a cleaner, more successful-looking portfolio in reports to clients or investors. This tactic gives the appearance of strong investment decisions, even if the actual performance over the quarter or year was lackluster.
█ Why Do Fund Managers Do It?
To Impress Investors:
Fund managers want their reports to show a strong portfolio, which can attract new investors and retain current ones.
To Boost Confidence:
A portfolio filled with "winning" stocks makes it seem like the fund consistently picks the right investments.
To Justify Performance:
If a fund struggled during the year, window dressing can shift focus away from losses.
█ How Does It Work?
Selling Losing Stocks: Underperforming stocks are sold off so they don't appear in the end-of-year report. Example: A fund holding a struggling tech stock might sell it in December to avoid questions about its performance.
Buying Winning Stocks: Managers may buy stocks that performed well recently, even if they didn’t hold them earlier, to create the illusion of good timing. Example: Adding shares of a high-flying AI company to the portfolio in December to make it seem like they capitalized on the trend.
█ Examples in Action
⚪ Market Volatility in December
As the 2024 trading year wrapped up, U.S. stock markets experienced notable declines, reflecting a mix of profit-taking, year-end adjustments, and portfolio rebalancing. One key driver of this volatility was window dressing. Fund managers, aiming to improve the appearance of their portfolios, sold off underperforming stocks in bulk before the year-end reporting period. This large-scale activity added pressure to the already vulnerable market, amplifying price movements, particularly in weaker stocks.
Example: Imagine a fund holding several tech stocks that underperformed in 2024. By December, the fund may decide to sell these stocks en masse, effectively clearing them from their books. This sudden selling can further depress the stock prices of those underperforming companies, creating a ripple effect across the broader market.
Broader Market Impact: The sharp sell-offs from window dressing contribute to increased market fluctuations, which can mislead casual investors into thinking these stocks are worse off than they might be in the long term.
⚪ Tax-Loss Selling
In addition to window dressing, another widespread practice that overlaps with it during December is tax-loss selling. This is when fund managers or individual investors sell losing stocks to offset their capital gains for tax purposes. This allows them to reduce their taxable income while simultaneously adjusting their portfolios for the new year.
How It Overlaps: A fund manager selling a losing stock for tax purposes might also be engaging in window dressing, as this helps clean up the portfolio's appearance for the year-end report. The dual motivation often drives even more selling pressure on underperforming stocks in December.
Example: Suppose a fund owns shares of a biotech company that fell significantly during the year. Selling the shares not only offsets gains elsewhere in the portfolio but also removes the "blemish" of a losing position from the annual report.
█ Is Window Dressing Legal?
Yes, it’s legal, but it’s often criticized for being misleading. Investors might think the fund's performance was better than it actually was. Regulators like the SEC are taking steps to increase transparency. For example, mutual funds will soon have to report their holdings monthly instead of quarterly, making it harder to hide these tactics.
█ How Does It Affect You as an Investor?
Short-Term Market Volatility: Window dressing can cause unusual price movements in December as funds adjust their portfolios.
Misleading Reports: If you’re investing in mutual funds or ETFs, the end-of-year portfolio may not reflect the manager’s true strategy or the fund’s performance throughout the year.
█ Takeaway for Investors
Window dressing is a reminder to look beyond year-end reports when evaluating a fund. Focus on long-term performance and consistency rather than just the holdings shown in December. Transparency regulations will help, but it’s always wise to dig deeper.
By understanding window dressing, you can make more informed decisions about your investments and avoid being misled by this common, yet questionable, practice.
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Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Catch Big Reversals Like a Pro Using the GOLDEN RSIHow to Catch Market Tops and Bottoms Using the GOLDEN RSI Indicator
Trading market reversals can feel like a daunting task. But what if you had a secret weapon to help you identify tops, bottoms, and potential reversals with ease? Enter the GOLDEN RSI Indicator—a custom-built tool designed to revolutionize your trading strategy. In this tutorial, I’ll show you how to leverage this powerful indicator to spot reversal trades like a seasoned pro.
What is the GOLDEN RSI Indicator?
The GOLDEN RSI builds on the traditional RSI (Relative Strength Index) by adding optimized zones and visual signals that highlight potential bullish and bearish reversals. Unlike the standard RSI, which requires subjective interpretation, this indicator provides precise entry and exit signals by visually marking key market conditions.
How to Use the GOLDEN RSI to Catch Market Reversals?
Understand the Key Zones:
Overbought Zone (Above 80): Signals a potential market top or reversal from bullish to bearish.
Oversold Zone (Below 20): Indicates a potential market bottom or reversal from bearish to bullish.
Neutral Zone (60-40): Consolidation phase where trends are less decisive.
Spotting Bullish Reversals
When the RSI dips into the oversold zone (below 20) and begins to reverse upward, the GOLDEN RSI will highlight a Bull signal. This suggests a potential upward move, ideal for long trades.
Pro Tip: Look for confirmation with price action, such as a bullish candlestick pattern or a break of resistance.
Spotting Bearish Reversals
When the RSI climbs into the overbought zone (above 80) and starts to turn down, the GOLDEN RSI will mark a Bear signal. This indicates a potential downward move, perfect for short trades.
Pro Tip: Combine with chart patterns like double tops or bearish engulfing candles to strengthen your confidence in the trade.
The Hidden Power of Divergences
Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower lows while the RSI makes higher lows. This signals potential bullish momentum.
Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher highs while the RSI makes lower highs. This signals potential bearish momentum.
The GOLDEN RSI visualizes divergences clearly, so you can spot them effortlessly.
Use Risk Management Tools
Set stop-loss levels below recent swing lows (for bullish trades) or above recent swing highs (for bearish trades).
Use risk-reward ratios of at least 1:2 to maximize your profit potential.
Real Trade Example Using GOLDEN RSI
In the SPX 15-minute chart above, the GOLDEN RSI accurately identified:
A Bearish Reversal near the market top, as the RSI entered overbought territory and started to fall.
A Bullish Reversal as the RSI dipped into the oversold zone and recovered upward.
These signals allowed for precise entry points, minimizing risk and maximizing rewards.
Why the GOLDEN RSI is a Game-Changer
Unlike generic RSI tools, the GOLDEN RSI is designed with traders in mind. It eliminates the guesswork by providing visual cues for market reversals. Whether you’re trading stocks, indices, or crypto, this indicator is a must-have in your toolkit.
How to Get the GOLDEN RSI Indicator?
Want to try it for yourself? Head over to TradingView and add the GOLDEN RSI Indicator to your chart. Use it alongside your favorite price action strategies to take your trading to the next level.
Conclusion
Reversals can make or break a trader’s portfolio. By mastering the GOLDEN RSI, you can confidently spot market tops, bottoms, and reversals with precision. Start using this custom indicator today and watch your trading results improve dramatically!
Don’t forget to like, share, and follow me on TradingView for more tutorials like this one. Let’s catch those reversals together!
Next Big Move: Weekly GEX & Key LevelsWeekly GEX & Key Levels – Options Recap
Chop Zone (5850–6055)
This range is likely the short-term “parking” area for sideways price action.
Expect the market to oscillate here unless a stronger directional catalyst emerges.
Gamma ‘Deny Zone’ (Below 5850)
Dropping below 5850 can amplify negative gamma effects, potentially fueling a stronger downside move.
Watch for increased volatility and momentum if this area is breached.
Gamma-Squeeze Breakout Zone (Above 6055)
A break above 6055 neutralizes the call gamma wall, potentially triggering a rapid rally (gamma squeeze).
Consider bullish option plays if this level is reclaimed and confirmed.
Options Perspective
IVRank 23.8: Moderately elevated implied volatility (~1–2% potential daily moves).
Puts 87%: Significant open interest in PUT positions, especially around 5800–5900 strikes, often acting as a strong support zone.
Gamma Flip (~5923): A critical pivot where market maker positioning flips, potentially creating intraday turning points.
Practical Strategies
Range Trading in the Chop Zone
Iron condors, short strangles, or other neutral strategies.
Stay alert for any breakout that can quickly move the market beyond this range.
Bullish Breakout Above 6055
Consider call debit spreads or bull call spreads to capture a swift upside move.
Look for a confirmed break (ideally on higher volume).
Bearish Breakdown Below 5850
Hedge with protective puts or put debit spreads if you hold existing long exposure.
Negative gamma could accelerate downside momentum.
Summary
Base Case: Likely consolidation between 5850 and 6055.
Upside: Above 6055, a gamma-driven squeeze could rapidly push prices higher.
Downside: Below 5850, stronger selling pressure may emerge.
Manage risk according to your plan and remain vigilant for any surprise catalysts.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Always use proper risk management based on your own trading objectives.
US 500 – Major Momentum Stall or Just Taking a Breather?After posting a gain of around 23%, 2024 was undoubtably another strong performance for the US 500 index. However, hopes of that much discussed ‘Santa Rally’ failed to materialise. Undermined by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell on December 18th at the press conference following another 25bps (0.25%) interest rate cut.
His suggestion that further Fed interest rate cuts are likely to be on hold until more progress is made on bringing inflation back to the US central bank’s 2% target, put a dent in the strong bullish sentiment that had seen the US 500 index touch a new all time high at 6101, only days earlier on December 6th.
Now, with the index back trading around 5900 again, the question for traders at the start of 2025 may be, is this a major momentum stall or is the uptrend just taking a breather?
Weekly Mid-Average a Potential Line in the Sand
Recent declines in the US 500 are now approaching a possible key support level within the weekly picture marked by the rising Bollinger mid-average, currently at 5824 (Blue line on chart).
While having seen this line hold and resume price strength on previous occasions is no guarantee it will do so again, it may well be something of a ‘line in the sand’ to watch if tested in upcoming trading sessions.
Price action against this support zone could help us to gauge if the latest weakness in price is just a limited reaction to over-extended upside conditions, or if a downside closing break below this level is seen, if further extended falls may be about to materialise.
As we can see from the chart above, in April, August and September last year, it was the rising mid-average (Blue line on chart) that helped hold price declines and even prompt fresh upside strength to breach previous highs and extend the pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
US 500 - Why We Should Monitor Weekly Close Against 5824 Level
Sometimes, when a closing break below the weekly mid-average develops, we must wait to see if the average turns down, to suggest the potential of a downtrend forming, or as was the case in September, upside price action resumes, to break back and close above the still rising mid-average, pointing to the potential for further price strength.
So, with this in mind, if tested in upcoming sessions, it may be the Bollinger mid-average that can be important again as we move into 2025, and we will be monitoring the 5824 level on a closing basis.
Closes below this support, if followed by the average turning lower, could prove to be a sign of a more extended phase of weakness, although while it holds, the positive upside trending condition could still remain.
Potential Resistance Levels to Watch
While the rising weekly Bollinger mid-average currently suggests the longer term trend is still up, looking at the same measure on the daily chart, offers a slightly different picture.
The negative reaction to the Fed rate announcement on December 18th, saw the US 500 index break and close below its daily Bollinger mid-average, and as the daily chart above shows, this average has now turned lower.
While the daily mid-average (Blue line on chart), currently at 5998, continues to fall and as it did over the Christmas period, resists fresh attempts to move back higher again, this opens up the possibility that a short term daily downtrend may be materialising.
Potential Pivot Points:
In conclusion, it could be the weekly Bollinger mid-average at 5824 that marks a possible support, while the declining daily Bollinger mid-average at 5998 may suggest a potential important resistance level.
It could be worth watching both identified levels on a closing basis at the start of 2025. Confirmed closing breaks of either side, followed by the mid-average changing direction (the weekly average lower, or the daily higher) may lead to a more prolonged phase of price movement, in the direction of the break.
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sp500 - a repeat of 2020?The structure is very similar to the 2020 fractal, growth without rollbacks and the strongest dump of -30% against the backdrop of covid.
Now the situation is similar, growth without rollbacks and new viruses appear in China, the metapneumo virus, and in the US, the quaddemic.
Market movements are cyclical, I think we are in for a good rollback in crypto and the stock market, after a bull run as it was in late 2020-early 2021.
More down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD retested the 4H FVG and dropped again. After it retested the extreme candle of the A-leg, it went up again.
Next week we could see a correction up (maybe into the Daily BPR) and another drop.
Trade idea: Wait for the correction up to finish and a change in orderflow to bearish, then you could trade shorts.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
Market Snapshot1. Excessive Speculation or Asset Bubbles
Preceding downturns, markets often experience speculative mania in certain sectors (e.g., 1929 stock bubble, 2008 housing bubble, 2000 tech bubble).
2. Monetary Policy Tightening
Central banks often raise interest rates or tighten monetary policy to combat inflation, reducing liquidity (e.g., Federal Reserve hikes in 1929, 1980, and 2008).
3. Leverage and Debt Crises
Excessive leverage among consumers, corporations, or financial institutions increases vulnerability (e.g., margin loans in 1929, subprime mortgages in 2008).
4. Overvaluation of Financial Assets
Markets often become overvalued based on metrics like P/E ratios, creating disconnects between prices and fundamentals (e.g., 1999-2000 tech stocks, 1929).
5. Liquidity Crises
A lack of liquidity or credit crunch exacerbates selloffs (e.g., 2008 banking crisis, 1987 Black Monday).
6. Geopolitical or Systemic Shocks
Unexpected shocks such as wars, oil crises, or pandemics trigger fear and uncertainty (e.g., OPEC oil embargo in 1973, COVID-19 in 2020).
7. Declining Consumer Confidence
Consumer sentiment falls due to high unemployment, inflation, or fear of recession, dampening spending and economic activity (e.g., 2008, 1980s).
8. Corporate Earnings Decline
Broad declines in corporate profits lead to stock selloffs (e.g., early 2000s dot-com bust, 2008 financial crisis).
9. Structural Economic Weakness
Economic imbalances or structural issues amplify downturns (e.g., overproduction in 1929, housing bubble in 2008, supply chain disruptions in 2020).
10. Psychological Panic and Loss of Trust
Fear and herd behavior lead to mass selloffs, deepening declines (e.g., 1929 panic selling, Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008).
Bullish bounce off overlap support?S&P500 is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 5,853.42
1st Support: 5,788.43
1st Resistance: 5,926.47
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trend OutlookS&P 500 Analysis
The price is currently trading with bullish momentum, reaching 5,969. A breakout above 5,969 is likely to push the price towards 6,022.
On the other hand, if the price remains stable below 5,969, it will fluctuate between 5,969 and 5,935. A break and a 4-hour candle closing below 5,935 will support a bearish trend, targeting 5,893 and 5,863.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5935
Resistance Levels: 5969, 6022, 6053
Support Levels: 5905, 5863, 5790
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Stability: Maintained below 5,969
Bullish Trend: Confirmed by a breakout above 5,969
SPX: still in a Holiday moodThe sentiment from the last week of December, was holding on the market also in the first trading week of 2025. There were both days with a positive and negative sentiment. For the second week in a row, the market was trading in a negative mood during the week, ending with Friday's positive shift to the upside. The S&P 500 reached its lowest weekly level at 5.837, at the same level as two weeks ago, and then reverted back toward the 5.944 on Friday.
Tech stock companies were the ones that spotted investors' attention on Friday. The market favourite Nvidia jumped by 4,7% and Super Micro Computers was traded higher by 10,9%. Analysts were noting that spending on AI and chips would certainly bring AI related companies to the higher grounds in 2025. Microsoft already announced plans to invest $80 billion on AI-enabled centres this year, which supported investors' interest for stock within the AI and AI-chips industry. These trends are likely to continue through 2025 also with other companies within the tech industry.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Short to support area 5718 (Wave C).Dear colleagues, I believe that the downward movement will continue within the correction (A B C). I expect wave “C” to start moving very soon.
I think that the nearest target is the area of 5718 level, because there is a strong support area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P 500 Price Outlook: Key Levels and Trend AnalysisS&P 500 Analysis
The price has bullish momentum and is likely to reach 6022. If it stabilizes above this level, it may rise further to 6099, especially if it breaches the descending trendline.
If the price stabilizes below 6022, it will likely consolidate between 6022 and 5969 until a breakout occurs. A break below 5937 could signal the start of a bearish trend.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5987
Resistance Levels: 6022, 6053, 6060
Support Levels: 5969, 5937, 5896
Critical Turning Point for the S&P 500: Bullish or Bearish?Happy New Year, everyone! 🎉 I hope you all had an amazing start to 2025. Let’s dive into the S&P 500 chart because it’s showing some critical patterns that could define the market's direction moving forward.
The S&P 500 has now broken below the Rising Channel, confirming a bearish breakdown from the long-term uptrend. This move adds to the bearish pressure initiated by the previously formed Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern.
The breakdown of the Rising Channel, combined with the confirmed H&S pattern, suggests a significant shift in market sentiment. With the price also sitting below the 50 EMA, the bears appear to have the upper hand.
1. Rising Channel Breakdown : After respecting the channel boundaries for months, the price has decisively fallen through the lower boundary, signaling the uptrend is over.
2. H&S Pattern Confirmation : The neckline has been broken, further validating this bearish reversal structure.
3. 50 EMA Resistance : The inability to reclaim the 50 EMA solidifies the bearish momentum.
Targets to Watch
* 5,687.33: The next immediate support level where price could pause or consolidate.
* 5,600.45: A breach of 5,687.33 could send the price toward this stronger support zone.
* 5,119.26 (Channel Projection): If bearish momentum accelerates, the longer-term target aligns with the channel's projected downside.
What’s Next?
With the Rising Channel broken, the market’s bullish structure has collapsed, leaving traders watching key support levels to assess the depth of the pullback. Bulls will need to reclaim the 50 EMA and push the price back into the channel to regain control, but this seems unlikely in the short term.
The market now leans bearish, and the next few sessions could confirm whether this breakdown leads to a larger correction or stabilizes near support.
Let me know your thoughts and how you plan to approach this setup. Wishing you all a successful and profitable trading year ahead! 🚀
#SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #BearishBreakdown #RisingChannel #HeadAndShoulders
us500 longUS500
LONG
💎Please don't be greedy
ENTRY : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG position
above red line for SHORT position
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1:
Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2:
For risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
US stock indices surge into week's endUS stock index futures were firmer in early trade this morning. They were firmer in early trade yesterday morning too. But that didn’t stop them turning lower as the session progressed. Yesterday’s move saw the S&P 500 hit lows last seen on Friday, 20th December when investors were dumping stocks following the Fed’s ‘hawkish rate cut’ from the previous Wednesday. It was a similar story for all the US majors yesterday, and, to show that the sell-off was tech-led, the NASDAQ 100 fell back to levels last seen at the end of November. The lows were hit early evening European time. After that, the US indices recovered somewhat, ending the day with modest losses, although, as yesterday, the mid-cap Russell 2000 managed to creep into positive territory. Does this week’s stock market behaviour provide clues for the rest of the year? Probably not. It’s fair to say that much of the recent volatility and downside pressure comes as a result of year-end window dressing and fund rebalancing, as managers shift their weightings between equities and bonds. This became necessary due to weakness in the bond market since mid-September (ironically just after the Fed slashed rates by 50 basis points) contrasting with strength across equities going back to October 2023. So we’ll have to see how things go for the rest of this month, particularly once we get past Trump’s inauguration on 20th January. At the time of writing (just after the European close again) US stock indices are staging an impressive rally and on their highs. It’s probably too late for the S&P to complete a full ‘Santa Rally’, as that would require an upward move of over 150 points today. The yield on the 10-year is back up to 4.58% this afternoon, although equity buyers don’t seem too concerned. While elevated yields may indicate expectations of stronger economic growth, rather than simply an inflation bounce, they’re also a response to the US’s budget deficit, and the prospect of the huge Treasury issuance required to cover it.
