Can you envision S&P500 at 20k? This is why most investors fail!If you follow us through all those years then you know how fond we are of long-term patterns. Especially those of a multi-year perspective that can offer maximum reliability and as close to a flowless projection as it can get.
The current chart (1M time-frame) on the S&P500 index (SPX) is no exception and you might be no strangers to it as we've published it on April 10 2024 (see chart below) when the price was still at 5200 (against 5700 now):
That was at a time of high market uncertainty after a strong start to the year and as we were entering the bearish seasonality of Summer. This rise however should come as no surprise to those that can read charts and market behavior objectively. As we mentioned at the time, this is a long-term perspective that gives you the picture unfiltered with the facts only.
What you see on this chart is S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale from the rally in 1921 that led to the Great Depression. Since that 'mother of all recessions', the stock market started to create a pattern of clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons/ excuses' to fill out and complete this pattern.
** Great Depression: 1st Bull Cycle **
Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
** Vietnam War to High Inflation: 2nd Bull Cycle **
The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200.
** Post 2008 Housing Crisis: 3rd Bull Cycle **
With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended.
Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous).
That gives us a rough target for the S&P500 of around 20000 estimated to take place by 2032!
** New updates: Price and Time Fibonacci levels **
What we've added on the current updated analysis relative to the on in April 2024, are the Fibonacci levels both on the x (time) and y (price) axis.
As you can see, the S&P is currently exactly on the 0.618 Fib price axis and between the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis. That is a highly symmetric correlation with roughly the year 1992, right at the start of the Dotcom Bubble that led to the 2000 burst and subsequent crisis. The index was again on the 0.618 Fib price axis and within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis.
** Is A.I. the new Dotcom? **
It was the Internet Mania that accelerated the 1974 - 2000 Bull Cycle to its peak and this time it may be the A.I./ Blockchain/ Crypto etc Mania that may aggressively lead the current (2009 - 2032) Bull Cycle to the next Great Recession. Note that just like the Internet didn't go away because of a mere act of amazing greed (the Dotcom Bubble) but instead served as the backbone of the Age of Information and a new Economy (e-commerce, social media, digital investing etc), the A.I. Bubble that has started fueling the market since 2023 shouldn't be demonized when it pops and in our opinion won't go away but instead serve as the backbone of the next Age of Reality and Commerce (metaverse, augmented reality, robotics, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles etc).
It has to be said, that the current Bull Cycle is much more similar to the 1974 - 2000 one than the 1932 - 1965, which understandable as neither banking or trading was that evolved or matured as it got with the financial engineering of the 80s and beyond.
** Conclusion **
In any case and as we are concluding this publications, all the above projections based on this 'Cyclical blueprint' may be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those patterns filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics.
So based on that model, are you also expecting to see 20000 in 8 years time?
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US500 trade ideas
Correction down for SPX500USD is almost finishedHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD dropped and slowly went up again.
I think next week we could see the finish of the complex correction down (wave 4) and the last leg up to finish wave 5.
Trade idea: Wait for the complex correction down to finish and after a change in orderflow to bullish and a correction down on a lower timeframe you could trade (short term) longs.
If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
SPX Short: Peaked?Based on the upper trend line and wave counts, I believe that SPX has finally reached it's peak (again). Note that I've also previously called for peak that turns out to be just sub-wave peaks instead of ultimate peak. That is, right in the short-term, wrong in the long-term. This is another attempt to call a long-term turning point.
Bearish abcd extLooking for a sell off from the weak high, which I have at 1.618 fib level of the bearish abcd ext. Looming for a retrace to .618 ...
US500 (S&P): Trend in 2H time framePlease pay special attention to the very accurate trends, and colored levels.
Do not open a position without TP and SL.
Its a very sensitive setup, please be careful.
BEST,
MT
Post-Election Price Momentum: Bullish and Bearish ScenariosTechnical Analysis
Following Trump’s success in the U.S. election, the price is poised to reach new highs after breaking its previous all-time high (ATH).
Bullish Scenario: If the price maintains stability above 5891, it is likely to target 5939 initially. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle close above 5939 would further reinforce the bullish momentum, with a potential upward move toward 6002.
Bearish Scenario: Sustained stability below 5891 may trigger a downward move, with an initial target of 5863. Should a 4-hour candle close below 5863, it could confirm entry into a new bearish phase.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5900
Resistance Levels: 5939, 5980, 6002
Support Levels: 5891, 5863, 5803
Trend outlook: Uptrend
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 6117 (Wave “3”).Dear Colleagues, I believe that price will still make new highs. I expect that the wave “5” of the middle order is not yet complete.
Perhaps the price will test the 50% Fibonacci level of 5847 and then start an upward movement to the resistance area of 6117 (Wave “3”).
This correction may not happen, then it would mean that the price continued the wave “3”.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to area 5915 (Wave 5).Dear colleagues, I believe that the upward movement is not over yet and the end of the movement in wave “5” is ahead.
At the moment I see the support area of 5800, from which I assume that the price will reach the area of 5915.
Then we will look for a short trade entry, but for now all my thoughts are only on long positions.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
How the U.S. Presidential Election May Impact the S&P 500 IndexHow the U.S. Presidential Election May Impact the S&P 500 Index
Today, 5 November, the U.S. presidential election is underway, and it may serve as a significant driver of volatility for global stock markets.
According to EuroNews, heightened market fluctuations are expected throughout the voting period on 5 November, potentially mirroring reactions observed during the Brexit referendum and the 2016 U.S. election. Newsweek notes that historically, U.S. stock markets tend to rise regardless of the election winner. In 2020, for example, American stocks rose immediately after election day and continued upward even as Trump contested the results.
Investor’s Business Daily highlights Tony Roth, CIO of Wilmington Trust, who argues that U.S. stock markets could climb regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins, as both candidates provide viable economic paths that could support market sentiment.
On 14 October, analysing the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), we plotted three narrow upward channels (shown in blue), noting:
→ each channel has a similar slope and width;
→ connecting the maximum of Channel 1, the peak and trough of Channel 2, and the low of Channel 3 outlines a larger channel (in orange).
Today’s technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the current index level near the lower edge of the third blue channel, with additional support around:
→ former resistance at $5678;
→ the lower orange boundary.
Election results may trigger a volatility spike, potentially testing or reinforcing these support levels, which could shape future market momentum.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
$SPX #SPX S&P 500 at a "Great Depression" time resistance.1929 High, .com High two of the biggest corrections in US Stock Market history and we are at that resistance.
SPY Chart:
SPY I Bullish rally and more continued growthWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** SPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
S&P 500 - Why everyone is probably wrong.Popular YouTube channels, financial media, everyone is talking about the great big crash of 2023 to come.
Everyone is probably wrong. Why? The chart stupid.
The recent breakout of resistance is seen by many as a bull trap. Maybe. I see a backtest of past resistance and price action landing on the golden ratio. There’s something else, however. The Life cross. A life cross is defined as:
1) The 50-day SMA crossing up the 200-day SMA
AND
2) Price action above the 200-day SMA.
But WW this cross is a fake out! There’s no evidence to support that. Have studied the last 60 years of life crosses on the index. Do you know how many printed a false signal? 0. Nadda. Not one.
Ww
The last 20 years of life crosses..
July 8th, 2020
April 1st 2019
April 26th, 2016
February 1st, 2012
October 22nd, 2010
June 20th, 2009
September 12th 2006
November 10th, 2004
May 16th, 2003
S&P500: Make no mistake. The bull is far from over yet.The S&P500 index may be overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 70.424, MACD = 27.270, ADX = 58.374), even on the 1M timeframe (RSI = 73.014) but the monthly rally is far from over. This isn't only due to the post election euphoria but also for technical reasons. Those have to do with SPX's long term cycles and as this chart shows, every 3.3 years the index tops and starts to correct until it reaches the 1M MA50, where the long term buy signal is flashed again.
The 1M RSI also helps on long term buy entries as it has a clear Buy Zone, but the same goes for selling (Sell Zone). The sell validation usually comes after a LH trendline is formed. The Time Cycles tool indicates that we can start consider selling after May 2025, so regardless of how high the price is, we will time our selling accordingly.
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SPY/SPX: Top's probably not in. Hey everyone,
Excited to do this post. This is a new approach to looking at things that I found super insightful and excited to share my findings with the community!
As the title suggests, the top is likely not in. How can we know this? Well, besides the very obvious bullish price action and the fact that buyers won’t let anything drop 1$ without aggressively buying, there are other, more objective ways to measure tops and such.
One approach that many would use would be using the ATR range. However, ATR ranges are a little flawed, especially when looking at larger picture stuff (like annual levels). This is because ATR has limitations, such as:
a) It is not inflation adjusted,
b) It requires a moving average of at least 14 periods, which, in some cases, are beyond the stock’s life time,
c) Is a trailing average that does not correct for bearish years and bullish years. Thus, the results are skewed if bearish years fell within the ATR trailing range.
You can correct for this by doing what I do, which is creating models that look at the entire life span of a stock and correct for bullish and bearish years. However, this also has some limitations, some of the same as ATR, such as:
a) Over-correcting for Bullish and Bearish years,
b) Insufficient history on most stocks to have a very rigorous model,
c) Difficulty accounting for fundamental and other economic catalysts. Models tend to be unbiased and so omit periods where economic circumstances propped stocks up or down.
So how can we account for this, simplify it and come up with useable data?
Well, the easiest way to do it, is to do a cross between an ATR and a model, using scaled data (to control for inflation) and looking at ATR of the scaled data and comparing current moves to averages as well as other times where there were similar economic and fundamental circumstances.
To do this, we can use stats software such as R, SPSS, SAS, Excel or MATLAB, pull the data, standardize it and get our results. Let us do this for SPX, as it has more history.
Here we have SPX’s annual returns. Converting the Close to Open difference to a percent return is a simple way of standardizing data. Now, on its own, this doesn’t tell us much, because returns are dynamic and ever changing, influenced by a combination of fundamental, economic and investor sentiment catalysts. However, we can begin to make sense of things if we start applying some concepts of ATR, most notably if we take the average gains the SPX does in a year. Doing this, we get 6% average annual return since the 1800s. However, if we isolate for ONLY bullish years, or years where SPX’s gains were >0, our average becomes 16%.
Currently, SPX is at a 14% gain on the year. We can hone in a bit more, by isolation SPX’s Max gain. Doing this, we see that SPX’s biggest gain in 1 year happened in 1933, when it gained 46%.
How about normal, bull market years?
To figure this out, the easiest way is to rank the data from highest to lowest or lowest to highest. Then, we can take the mean, median and mode of the ranked data. We already have the mean, which is 16%, but with ranked data we can get the median and mode.
First, the mode. Remember, mode is the value that occurs the most frequently. For SPX, the mode is interestingly enough 14%. Which means, of all of SPX’s bullish years, more times than not they ended at a 14% gain.
Now for the median. Remember, the median is the middle value of ranked data. And surprise! Its also 14%!
Its difficult to interpret what this could mean. It does tell us that we don’t have a perfect, normal distribution, because, despite the median and mode being the same, the mean is not the same (remember its 16%). But, it is close!
So what does this tell us?
Before we make inferences about this data, I think its important that we look at a few other things first. Most notably, the standardized version of the high to low value. The gains that we have looked at only represent the open to close. However, very rarely if ever has SPX ever closed on a high or low. So we would anticipate, looking at the actual range from high to low, we would get some different values. So let’s take a look at this on SPX’s bullish years:
Looking at this, the average high to low is 25%. Currently, SPX is sitting at 16%. Exciting right? This is very far from where we are now!
The MAX High to Low percent was 121% and the min was 4%. The max happened in 1933, the same year that the SPX gained a whopping 46%. For interest sake, let’s rank this data from low to high and calculate the median and mode. Doing this gives us the following:
The mode is 15% and the median is 24%.
So how can we use this data to make predictions about SPX? Well, we can actually calculate the targets based on the average of these values. So let’s get into it.
Assuming that SPX is going to close at the average, between 14% and 16%, that would convert to a price target of 5409.53 - 5504.43. So, provided this is a bullish year (which it looks like it will be), we can expect our close to fall somewhere between 5400 and 5500, which is the average closing range of bullish years.
However, SPX is still trailing below the expected high to low range, with an average range of 25% which is also the median (roughly). So with SPX’s YTD low of 4682.11, that would convert to a high of 5852.64.
I don’t want to make this post too long, but I have replicated this with SPY as well and here is the data in a nutshell:
SPY’s average gain on bullish years is 18%.
SPY’s average high to low range on bullish years is 29%.
SPY’s current gain on the year is 15%, and SPY’s current high to low range on the year is 16%. This gives the following price targets on SPY:
Expected close (assuming we close at the annual average): 557.15
Expected High (assuming we meet the average high to low range): 601.67.
One final note about SPY, interestingly, SPY’s largest gain was in 1995 at the start of the tech bubble where it gained a whopping 35%! Imagine SPY closing this year around 637.42?! Unthinkable! But .. possible?
This is not trading advice, just trying to put things into perspective for people. I see a lot of short biased ideas continually popping up. For us to meet the average high to open range by selling, would require a HUGE tank from this position. I find the most likely and realistic is a continuation up from here to meet the average move.
Safe trades everyone!
S&P 500 Index: First Correction Since July 2023I was just looking at NVDA and the market has been bullish forever. A drop is approaching and I wondered, "Will this be a short lived correction or will it turn into a bear-market?"
Good question isn't it?
The last correction for the SPX happened between July and October 2023, after that, it has been 100% bullish with some retraces lasting a maximum of three weeks. So it is hard to think of a bear-market.
From January 2022 through October 2022 the SPX entered a strong correction, a bear-market, it lasted 280 days. There you have it.
How would that look like today? Let's see... Ten months would put us at August/September 2025, can you imagine?
These markets are super resilient, and with money printing going on over-drive soon, it is possible that we only experience a correction. A correction can last several weeks to a few months maximum.
Big correction or small correction, three weeks or ten months, the SPX is bearish and pointing lower in the coming days, weeks and months.
Namaste.
US500 (S&P): Trend in 4H time framePlease pay special attention to the very accurate trends, and colored levels.
Its a very sensitive setup, please be careful.
BEST,
MT
SPX500USD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,735.3.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,643.6.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SPX500 Will Fall!FOREXCOM:SPX500 is trading in a
Downtrend and the indice
Is making a pullback
From the horizontal resistance
Of 5771.33 from where
We will be expecting a
Further move down !
You Killed my Dog - Revenge TradingRevenge trading is a behavioral trap that can ensnare even experienced traders. It's the impulse to enter a new trade immediately after a significant loss, often fueled by frustration or a need to "win back" what was lost. However, succumbing to this urge can lead to further losses and greater emotional instability. This psychological cycle, if left unchecked, can spiral into a destructive pattern that can erode both account balances and self-confidence.
1️⃣ Understanding the Root of Revenge Trading
At its core, revenge trading arises from the natural human response to loss. This reaction can be linked to what’s known as the "fight-or-flight" mechanism—when traders feel threatened by a financial loss, they experience a rush of adrenaline, which can result in impulsive decision-making. This initial phase often reflects the trader's attachment to their profits or ego rather than a rational, strategy-based response. You need to recognize this instinct to regain lost money as the first step to addressing revenge trading. By understanding that revenge trading is driven more by emotion than by reason, you can start building awareness around your trading behavior.
2️⃣ Identifying the Emotional Cycle in Revenge Trading
The emotional cycle in revenge trading typically starts with anger, followed by a need to “win back” losses, often resulting in riskier trades. This cycle can repeat and intensify as losses compound, leading to feelings of self-blame and regret. Identifying the triggers that set off this emotional cycle—such as a recent loss or the need to prove something—can help you avoid jumping into impulsive trades. Recognizing these cycles early can allow you to pause, reflect, and make better choices.
3️⃣ Setting Up Predefined Trading Rules
One of the most effective strategies to prevent revenge trading is to establish strict trading rules, including stop-loss levels, damage control triggers and daily limits. When you have clear, predefined rules, it becomes easier to stick to a plan rather than trading based on emotions. For instance, having a rule to stop trading for the day after a certain level of loss ensures that you have time to step away and reset mentally. Knowing when to pause prevents the desperation that often triggers revenge trading, reinforcing discipline and giving you time to recover emotionally.
4️⃣ Building Self-Awareness Through Mindfulness Practices
Mindfulness is an effective tool for managing the emotional pressures that come with trading. Practices such as deep breathing, meditation, or even journaling after each trading session can help increase self-awareness and emotional regulation. These exercises help you stay present in the moment, allowing for a more objective assessment of a situation without letting anger or frustration cloud your judgment. The more self-aware you become, the better you can avoid the emotional pitfalls that lead to revenge trading.
5️⃣ Creating a Loss Recovery Plan
Developing a structured plan for recovering from losses is another way to counteract revenge trading tendencies. This plan may include specific actions, such as re-evaluating the last losing trade, understanding why it failed, and making a list of ways to improve your strategy. A loss recovery plan can provide structure and prevent panic-driven decisions. For example, instead of doubling down on the next trade, you might focus on smaller, more conservative trades to gradually regain what was lost, creating a more balanced and thoughtful approach to rebuilding.
6️⃣ Learning from Historical Instances of Revenge Trading
The idea of revenge trading is not new; many traders, including professionals, have been affected by it. One well-known example is the collapse of Barings Bank, which was largely due to rogue trader Nick Leeson’s revenge trading following initial losses. His increasing risk in an attempt to “win back” losses ultimately led to catastrophic results. Studying such cases reminds you of the real consequences of revenge trading and encourages you to approach each trade with caution, even after a loss.
7️⃣ Leveraging Support Networks and Mentorship
Having a support system, such as trading peers, a coach, or even online communities, can provide accountability and perspective when dealing with losses. Discussing challenges and trading experiences with others helps you reflect on your decisions and avoid impulsive trading. A mentor, in particular, can be instrumental, as they bring experience, objectivity, and practical advice for managing the emotional hurdles of trading. By fostering these connections, you build resilience and have someone to consult with during tough times, which can help prevent revenge trading behaviors. Shameless plug: join us at The Trading Mentor, you will not regret it ;)
Revenge trading can be a powerful and destructive force, driven by deep-rooted emotional responses to loss. But with self-awareness, mindfulness, structured plans, and support, you can gain control over these impulses and foster a healthier, more disciplined trading mindset. The journey to overcoming revenge trading is one of introspection, strategy, and gradual improvement, helping you achieve long-term trading success while minimizing emotionally driven mistakes.
SPX: Presidential elections and FOMCThe US stocks had a relatively mixed week. The S&P 500 started the week with the negative sentiment, around the level of 5.840, and moved in Thursday trading session to the lowest weekly level at 5.705. Still, during Friday the index managed to gain some 0,4%, ending the week at the level of 5.728. The Non-farm payrolls were the major surprise for the markets during the previous week. The US economy added only 12.000 new jobs in October, which was the lowest level since the pandemic. Analysts are noting that such a weak performance is a result of hurricanes and labor strikes, and that the labor market in the US stands on solid grounds.
Amazon was one of the companies which was in the spotlight of investors, with a weekly gain of 6,2%, as the company continues to strengthen its cloud and advertising business above market current expectations. Intel was another company which strongly outperformed market forecasts, gaining 7,8% for the week. Regardless of a bumpy start of November, this might continue for the week ahead. Namely, two quite important events for the US are scheduled for the week ahead - on November 5th the US Presidential elections and FOMC rate decision on November 7th. These two events are implying that higher volatility and market nervousness might continue for another week.
Avg lvls for SPY:600, SPX:6000Continuing with the recent brief analysis on TLT:
The US stock market will inevitably face challenges when the clashes between populism and reality come to the forefront. Over the next 3 years, I expect SPY average price to maintain around the 600 level and for SPX it is 6,000.
S&P500: Rising Wedge targeting 6,000 short term.S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.812, MACD = 16.490, ADX = 32.155) as it maintains the Rising Wedge pattern that started on August 5th. The critical formation though is on the 1H timeframe and it is the Golden Cross that was just completed. All three Golden Crosses inside the Rising Wedge saw significant gains after they were formed. In fact they posted rallies far greater than the push prior to the Golden Cross, which means that we can currently see a move the will break above the Rising Wedge. Until then though, we have to follow the strict levels that this pattern provides us and on the short term we are targeting the top of the pattern and 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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WAVE 5 of 5 of 3 topping NOW I did say 5935 to 6012 as focus The alt based on MATH is 6118 to 6211 BUT TIME IS RUNNING OUT IN CYCLE BULL I am 101 % long in the money PUTS and do not fear it !!! NYSI has now formed a HOOK !!!
