WTI Crude Oil ShortWTI Crude Oil – Technical & Macro Outlook
🔻 1. Supply Zone Rejection Expected (66.50–68.00 Range)
Price is currently approaching a newly established supply zone between $66.50 and $68.00, which coincides with a prior consolidation area that preceded the recent sharp sell-off. This confluence enhances the zone’s relevance, especially given its position just below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (~$69.47), derived from the swing high at $75.79 to the swing low.
📌 Outlook:
This region is expected to act as a high-probability rejection zone, likely attracting institutional sell-side interest. Price action within this zone should be monitored for signs of weakness or distribution.
📉 2. Downside Target: $61.50–$63.00 Demand Cluster
Should the supply zone hold, downside momentum could drive WTI toward the $61.50–$63.00 demand range. This area is technically significant, supported by the following factors:
Previous Change of Character (ChoCH) at $63.49, which marked the beginning of the recent bullish correction and represents a key structural pivot.
Presence of stacked demand zones below $64, increasing the likelihood of a meaningful reaction from buyers.
📌 Outlook:
This zone is expected to attract strong buying interest, making it a short-term profit-taking region for bears and a potential entry point for swing long setups, depending on confirmation.
🌍 Geopolitical Risk Landscape & Supply Dynamics
Recent geopolitical developments continue to influence crude oil pricing dynamics:
Middle East instability (e.g., Iraqi disruptions and ceasefire delays) has led to tightened supply conditions, pushing WTI above $67.
Persistent uncertainty stemming from Iranian nuclear negotiations, ongoing U.S.–China tariff risks, and regional tensions contributes to a sustained risk premium.
While OPEC+ is incrementally increasing production, this is offset by rising Saudi exports and weakening demand forecasts, which may result in inventory builds by late 2025.
Russia’s export resilience—bolstered by strategic redirection toward Asia—suggests that any anticipated supply contraction could be less severe than expected.
🛢 WTI at $62 – Technical and Macro Implications
A decline to $62 would place WTI at a major technical support level, closely watched by institutional participants. If tested, the market could react in the following ways:
Bargain hunting and value-based buying may emerge, especially if macroeconomic data aligns with a recovery narrative.
Heightened volatility is likely, driven by sensitivity to any shifts in global risk sentiment—particularly those tied to trade policy, OPEC+ production surprises, or further geopolitical escalations.
📌 Summary
Resistance: $66.50–$68.00 (pre-breakdown supply + 0.5 Fib)
Support / Target: $61.50–$63.00 (demand + structural ChoCH)
Bias: Short-term bearish toward demand, with high reactivity expected near $62
Risk Factors: Elevated geopolitical uncertainty and diverging supply dynamics across OPEC+, Russia, and the U.S.
