Usoil Triangle fakeoutIts seems so weird for usoil to keep going down, but looking things from political side it should be going up. IMO its should be quiet high probability that we could see bullish rally after sweep of the lows.
USCRUDEOILCFD trade ideas
WTI - oil on fire!WTI oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. If the upward trend continues and the ceiling of the channel is broken, one can first look for positions to buy it and then look for positions to sell oil in the supply zone.
A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next positions to buy oil with the appropriate risk reward.
Oil prices climbed as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated. Following Ukraine’s announcement that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile targeting the central city of Dnipro, Brent crude rose to $74 per barrel. Previously, Ukraine had primarily relied on long-range weaponry supplied by Western nations. If confirmed, this missile strike would mark the first use of such a weapon since its development during the Cold War era.
In recent days, additional bullish signals for oil prices have emerged. Refinery product premiums relative to crude oil have reached multi-month highs.
In the United States, as fuel producers along the coasts ramped up production to meet rising export demand, profit margins for converting crude oil into gasoline and diesel hit record levels.
According to Reuters, OPEC+ is likely to maintain significant oil production cuts for an extended period due to weak global demand. Analysts and insiders suggest that the OPEC+ meeting in December will face major constraints in determining production policy. While increasing production amid weak demand could be risky, further cuts may prove challenging as some members push to raise output. OPEC+, which includes Russia and produces nearly half of the world’s oil, has repeatedly delayed its gradual production increase plans this year.
Meanwhile, rising gas prices are creating tough challenges for European policymakers as they brace for a harsh winter. Javier Blas, a Bloomberg columnist, argues that Europe has yet to fully grasp the energy crisis stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He asserts that the continent has mistaken recent strategic successes for mere weather-related luck, but the situation has now deteriorated. This points to another winter of high gas and electricity prices, placing significant pressure on energy-intensive industries. Many large-scale manufacturers have announced plant closures and asset write-downs, while households face surging retail energy prices. This inflationary trend will add further complications for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Wholesale gas prices in Europe have risen to €47 per megawatt-hour, twice the February lows and 130% above the 2010-2020 average.
Wall Street has raised concerns that a second Trump presidency could negatively impact oil prices, arguing that producers might ramp up drilling and production before facing Biden-era regulatory pressures. However, another faction in Wall Street suggests this narrative is incomplete. Standard Chartered points out that the nature of U.S. shale oil production makes it difficult to sustain long-term supply increases. Unlike OPEC producers, whose output is often controlled by state-owned oil companies, U.S. production is dominated by several large corporations, independent producers, and private firms.
This perspective aligns with Goldman Sachs’ analysis. In July, Goldman Sachs predicted that U.S. crude oil production would grow by 500,000 barrels per day this year, a slower pace compared to last year’s 1 million barrels per day increase. Nevertheless, the U.S. will account for 60% of non-OPEC supply growth, with the Permian Basin expected to grow by 340,000 barrels per day annually—lower than the initial forecast of 520,000 barrels per day made by Wall Street analysts.
Will Oil see a rally in December and give an EOY push?Oil is in a cool spot right now where bulls have and are continuing to buy the dip around $67/brl. If this continues this can be a local bottom for the winter IMO as crude seasonally has a strong December/EOY.
Seasonality doesn't always have 1:1 correlations but over 30 years it has shown a strong positive correlation to an upward move in Oil and energy.
OIL short idea 1H time frameLooking to sell OIL
Entry : 67.99
Stop : 68.66
Take profit : 66.18
RR : 1:2
Buy OpportunityEntry: Buy WTI Crude Oil CFDs at $66.88.
Stop Loss: $65.60 (below the recent low and key support).
Take Profit:
First target at $69.35 (close to previous resistance).
Second target at $72.79 (8.83% profit potential).
Timeframe: The move is expected to play out over the next 9-10 days, as indicated by the projection curve on the chart.
Analysis Breakdown:
Support and Resistance Levels:
The price seems to have found a support zone around $66.88.
Resistance levels are marked at $69.35, $71.65, and a higher level at $72.88.
Volume Profile:
Visible volume profile on the left side suggests strong activity in the highlighted zones, indicating areas of high liquidity and potential areas of support/resistance.
Momentum Indicator (Squeeze Momentum):
The lower panel shows a Squeeze Momentum Indicator.
The histogram is currently red, indicating bearish momentum, but there’s a hint of weakening bearish pressure as the bars are shrinking.
Potential Trade Setup:
Long Position: Entry at the support level of $66.88.
Stop Loss: Positioned below the $66.00 level (around $65.60).
Take Profit Levels: Targets are set at $69.35 (first target) and $72.79 (final target), aiming for an 8.83% upside move.
Risk-Reward Ratio:
The risk-reward ratio appears favorable based on the analysis, with a potential reward of around 5.91 points ($5.91 move up).
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 70.38
1st Support: 67.68
1st Resistance: 72.82
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USOIL FORECAST Q4 FY24 - FY25monthly timeframe just to show em we the big dogs
The last post was short lived lasted a month then went to the bears
in this analysis i see price going up higher for longer in the long run as i anticipate
some serious global tensions to follow through, wont speculate on conspiracies only prices
that said price didnt break our level yet again and from 12/22 to now price was in an accumulation distribution range as the big money slowly but sure buy up more inventory
hidden in plain sight
LIKE COMMENT FOLLOW
need help i got you comment an instrument thats been bothering you
all asset classes
WTICOU Play's So ive been watching this Pair for a while now, There could be a great opportunity here if this continues to change direction & switch to bullish. Its forming a bottom structure
plan to trade USOIL if it goes further down or reverse the trendcurrently, the price of USOIL is at quite a strong support level which has not been broken in the last couple of years but the trend is overall bearish the trendline has also been tested 2-3 times but remained intact. Right now the price has been in the range for quite some time but if it breaks the drawn support level it will go down sharply. Traders who want to sell must get confirmation of the broken support level. On the other hand, those who want to buy should wait for the price to break the trendline and make new HH and HL.
Potential bearish drop?USO/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 69.05
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 70.48
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 66.91
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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USOILUS Oil is another name for West Texas Intermediary (WTI) Crude Oil. WTI is the benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils because of its location in the Gulf coast and central US. The US oil is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
WTI Bottomed! - 68 close / targets!11.14.24 WTI / USOIL / CL Plan
69.40 and 70.35 levels are targets for this next move off 68.00. Note that 70.35 level is backed by intraday (4H) 200 ema resistance.
For in depth, check bio!! (Voila's Oil Trading - Substack)
WTI CRUDE OIL: confirmed bottom formation. Buy and target 77.50.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.429, MACD = -0.380, ADX = 24.190) but that bearish sentiment is the ideal buy entry as the price hit today the top of the S1 Zone and stayed supported, extending the sideways price action of the last 2 days. The 4H RSI is on HL, which has been the distinct characteristic of all prior 3 bottoms. Being on the 0.236 Fibonacci level, we expect a strong rebound to start even as soon as tomorrow, to test the bottom of the R1 Zone (TP = 77.50).
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USOIL YEARLY OUTLOOK Will the US post-election continue to impair the oil price?
The election of Donald Trump has changed the dynamics of the market, causing oil prices to drop, with more negative pressure anticipated.
Global purchasers now pay more for oil due to a rising US dollar, which exacerbates concerns over oversupply.
Since recent economic measures have not yet produced immediate stimulus, China's demand outlook remains poor.
USOIL formed a weekly and daily Head-and-Shoulder pattern, signaling a continuation of bearish pressures.
If USOIL breaks below 68 - 62 necklines(blue and yellow bar), the price may continue its bearish movement to the nearby major support of 43 - 33
On the contrary, if USOIL remains above 68.00, the price may trade within the 68.00-84 range until an apparent breakout occurs.
Buy opportunity on USOILHello,
We've identified a huge current opportunity to buy USOIL with a high probability in a few HOURS (Day trade).
Ibrouri
WTI , Bounce off From 68 Level !!!Dear Traders,
The price has reached the bottom of the channel and I expect an upward movement to the targets of 74. The stop-loss is set at 67 dollars."
Dont Forget like&Comment please !
Regards,
Alireza!
CRUDE OIL(WTI): Bearish Move From Resistance 📉USOIL may continue to drope from a solid horizontal resistance level on a 4H.
Following the test, the price began to consolidate.
A powerful bearish candle broke through its support level, confirming a strong bearish trend.
It is highly likely that the price will drop to at least 67.77.
WTI oil making its way to lowest point of this year?The commodity is near a key are of support right now, so let's see if today's US economic data can continue boosting the US dollar. If so, WTI oil may end up traveling further south.
EASYMARKETS:OILUSD TVC:USOIL
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USOIL: Key Levels to Watch Amid CPI-Driven VolatilityUSOIL Analysis
Today, WTI Crude Oil is positioned for potential volatility with the upcoming CPI release, expected at 2.6%. This inflation data could significantly influence market direction.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 68.53
Resistance Levels: 70.49, 71.78, 72.74
Support Levels: 67.03, 65.85, 63.51
Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: A break and close above the pivot line at 68.53 could drive prices toward 70.49 and potentially higher levels at 71.78. Sustained trading above these levels may further confirm the bullish trend.
Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to hold above 68.53 and breaks below 67.03, it could lead to a bearish move toward 65.85 and eventually 63.51, aligning with a potential market reaction to higher-than-expected CPI data.
Today's CPI release is anticipated to cause notable volatility, so monitor these levels closely for potential breakouts in either direction.
USOIL BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is trading in a local uptrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 1H timeframe the pair is going down. The pair is oversold because the price is close to the lower band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to buy the pair with the lower BB line acting as support. The next target is 68.98 area.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Tracking Key Reversal Points: Anticipating Shifts in Oil MarketOverview:
Timeframes: The chart shows two timeframes: 1-day (left) and 1-hour (right).
Price Levels: The analysis spans key levels around $78.42, $72.84, and below, identifying important support and resistance zones.
Main Concepts:
Wave Structure Analysis (Elliott Wave):
The chart illustrates wave counts to identify impulsive and corrective wave formations.
The 1-day chart displays a completed or ongoing complex wave structure involving labeled sub-waves (e.g., (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v)).
The 1-hour chart follows with detailed sub-waves in a downtrend, marking a potential end of a minor wave 5.
Break of Structure (BOS):
The analysis highlights break-of-structure (BOS) points, signaling trend shifts or confirmation of current momentum.
Order Blocks (OB) and Supply Zones:
The charts label areas of interest like the Bearish OB, which indicates potential resistance levels for short trades.
Liquidity Pools and Equilibrium Levels (EQL): Show possible areas where price may seek liquidity, triggering stops or reversals.
Swing Failure Patterns (SFP):
On the 1-hour chart, an SFP shows a failed attempt to break a previous high, indicating potential reversals at those points.
Step-by-Step Breakdown:
Left Chart (1-Day):
Wave Completion: Possible end of wave (iv) around $78.42.
Correction Analysis: The chart suggests a retracement towards $72.84, marked by liquidity inducements and previous buy-side stops (BSL).
Potential Moves: If a correction deepens, the internal wave count may extend, affecting the broader trend structure.
Right Chart (1-Hour):
Bearish Momentum: Highlights swing failure patterns, with downward trends forming lower highs and lows.
Wave Labeling: The (A)-(C) correction forms a bearish pattern, suggesting possible price reversal around the Bearish OB at $69.35.
Projection: If bearish momentum continues, expect a move towards the dealing range lows around $68.41.
Examples and Analogy:
Think of the swing failure patterns as warning signs—like a car struggling to pass a steep hill. If it fails, it rolls back, suggesting sellers are regaining control, which could lead to further declines.
Key Takeaways:
Primary Resistance: $69.35 (potential short entries).
Support Focus: $67.66 - $66.75 area, as noted on both timeframes.
Continued Monitoring: If price breaks the strong high invalidation point, the short-term bearish outlook could be invalidated.
WTI in weekly chart (Update) Hello
I have given my idea and most probable scenarios of WTI movements for its next weeks. Now I just want to reconsider that scenario I think is more probable.
I am pretty sure that we are in a Triangle and I have gotten all confirmations and so what I expect for the next movement is to drop from here and make an ABC for the wave y cycle to end up wave (II) or (b) super cycle which may take around 300 days.
If it wants to become true then we need reliable confirmations.
US Oil Finds Support: Bullish Divergence in PlayUS oil prices are currently finding strong support and forming a bullish divergence. This technical pattern suggests a potential upward movement.
