Instrument: WTI Crude OilCurrent Price: $69.29
Overall Bias: Neutral to Bearish (Short-term downside risk)
Key Observations:
1. 12-Month Chart (Long-Term):
• Price Action: WTI Crude is currently trading at $69.29, having retraced from a high of $98.59.
• Fibonacci Levels:
• The price is currently hovering around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $73.80.
• 0.618 level (strong support) lies at $67.94.
• Support Levels: Key long-term support is at $67.94. A breakdown below this could lead to further downside towards $60.70.
• Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at $77.00 (just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Volume: 411.056M, signaling significant long-term trading activity.
2. 1-Month Chart:
• Price Action: WTI Crude peaked at $135.00 and has been correcting ever since. The price is now around $69.29 after finding support in the $60-70 range.
• Support Levels: $69.29 is the immediate support, with major long-term support at $56.82.
• Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $75.00 and the next key resistance around $96.10 (0.236 Fibonacci level).
• RSI: RSI is sitting at 59.40, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish momentum, but still within a broader downward structure.
3. 1-Week Chart:
• Price Action: Crude oil is attempting to rebound from the $67.94 level (close to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Support Levels: Immediate support at $69.29 and the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $67.94.
• Resistance Levels: Strong resistance lies at $84.00 (close to the 0.382 Fibonacci level). Above that, $96.10 would be the next significant level to watch.
• RSI: 50.49, suggesting crude is at a neutral point with neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Positioned at 17.06, which is nearing the oversold region, implying potential for a bounce in the short term.
4. 1-Day Chart:
• Price Action: The daily chart shows crude struggling at $69.29. A target of $81.51 is visible, but only if the price can hold above current levels.
• Support Levels: Immediate support at $69.29, with potential downside to $65.55 and further to $60.70.
• Resistance Levels: Resistance at $77.00 and $81.51.
• RSI: RSI at 40.41, indicating the asset is nearing oversold territory.
• Stochastic Oscillator: 15.95, which is also signaling oversold conditions. This suggests there could be a short-term bounce before further downside.
5. 4-Hour Chart:
• Price Action: WTI Crude recently tested support at $67.95 but is showing some consolidation around $69.29. There’s potential for a short-term bounce, but downside risks remain significant.
• Support Levels: Immediate support at $65.55. If broken, this could lead to a drop towards $60.70.
• Resistance Levels: Resistance at $77.00, with a target of $84.00 if bullish momentum picks up.
• RSI: 32.23, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a short-term bounce.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Deep into oversold territory at 9.13, suggesting an imminent bounce is possible.
6. 30-Minute Chart:
• Price Action: The short-term structure shows a local high of $87.56 before a steady decline to $69.29.
• Support Levels: Immediate support lies at $68.04, and below that, $65.55 becomes critical.
• Resistance Levels: Short-term resistance is at $77.00.
• RSI: 34.77, indicating oversold conditions, suggesting there could be a short-term bounce.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Currently at 36.10, signaling that downward pressure could persist in the short term.
Trading Strategy:
Primary Bias: Neutral to Bearish with potential short-term bounce
• Short Position:
• Entry: If WTI Crude fails to hold above $69.29 and starts breaking down below $67.94 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement), this could be an opportunity to short.
• Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss above $77.00 (immediate resistance).
• Take-Profit Levels:
• First target: $65.55.
• Second target: $60.70 (0.764 Fibonacci level).
• Aggressive target: $56.82.
• Long Position (Bounce Play):
• Entry: If WTI Crude holds above the $67.94 level and shows signs of a reversal, consider a long position.
• Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss below $65.55 to manage downside risk.
• Take-Profit Levels:
• First target: $77.00.
• Second target: $81.51.
• Aggressive target: $84.00.
Risk Management:
• Position Sizing: Given the volatile nature of crude oil, use conservative position sizing to manage risk, especially with the potential for sharp reversals.
• Stop-Loss: Always keep strict stop-losses in place as the downside potential remains significant, especially if $67.94 support breaks.
Conclusion:
WTI Crude Oil is at a critical juncture, currently trading near its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $67.94. A break below this level could open the door to further downside, with potential targets at $65.55 and $60.70. However, oversold conditions on multiple time frames suggest that a short-term bounce is possible.
For bearish traders, a breakdown below $67.94 is a trigger for shorts, with targets around $65.55 and $60.70. Bullish traders should watch for support holding at $67.94, with upside targets at $77.00 and $81.51 if the rebound materializes.
