ValuePig

ValuePig

TJ max isnt expensive, 26 PE and 15 ish price to book. gross profit margin 27%. Net income margin 7% With walmart and home depot warning about weakening consumer and saying guidance is flat for 2024, will the trend squeeze on TJX margins and sales revenue? They already missed earnings most recently. The salsa bowl of doom says TJX may be showing profit taking...

03:29

ValuePig

"Consumer retail is 70% of the economy". If anyone know where we are heading next, it should be the major big box and big web consumer retails names in the "WATCH" INDEX. WATCH is just Walmart Amazon Target Costco and Home depot added together.

ValuePig

Nat gas isnt a stock, its also a weird commodity. Its almost always oversold and cheap, and then all of a sudden its wrecking shorts. Remember James Cordier? the option seller who blew up his clients selling calls on nat gas? geez. tough. Any who, there momentum divergences in nat gas, showing the selling is slowing. theres lot of volume showing interest. I...

ValuePig

Schwab put out a great letter yesterday showing various ways to value the market. While the market valuation has improved slightly, on most measures, the investors are getting very little bang for the buck. I enjoyed the article very much and will give the link here if youre interested www.schwab.com In summary, market aint cheap. Scanning over the big...

ValuePig

GE2! is euro dollar (dollars outsside usa) and is commonly known as libor. its important because thats the common rate for non bank entities who enter into contractual lending. they are not supported by the federal reserve directly. Libor is unsecured funding. zq2! is fed funds which the banks lend to each other and the fed sets this rate. also unsecured...

05:44

ValuePig

3 days holidays weekend have a tendency to be reversal points, trader known tendency. sure seems like it for this 3 day presidents weekend. Junk bonds week, energy range bound in channels sideways, treasury yields rising, and retail news from home depot and walmart comes in weak. Oh and vix is threatening to go higher. Stocks arent cheap yet. 20 toe 30 Price...

ValuePig Updated 

If and when stocks finish the bear market, there will be deals at fair prices. snap is a good example of a once over valued and over exuberant stock whos earning guidance and result kept coming down after peak 2021. If arkk and the rest of the growth stocks keep trending lower as we may or may not be already in recession, I'm checking my favorites list to see what...

13:34

ValuePig

Stocks are businesses. most of them anyways. some are expensive hobbies until the money runs out. Its a good exercise to value opportunities as you see them. useful to weigh it and make notes in your files. Maybe not now, but later, your pitch with be thrown, and you might be ready to swing at it.

05:58

ValuePig

Sometimes you see things you cant unsee. Im seeing price action rhyme across various charts. Sure, trading off of pictures and crayons isnt science. But I've also been tracking the valuations and current sentiment readings. I mean, doesnt everybody like sales and discounts anyway. Buffett Indicator says GDP isnt keeping up with current stock market size....

ValuePig

Bad business model, losing money. But had more assets that was being reflected in the stock. this was not quite a cigar butt net net benjamin graham type stock, but it was low priced compared to liquid assets.

05:37

ValuePig

Valuation change my life. I was blind and now I see. not kidding. I love technical analysis. I love it more when combined with valuation. Stocks are actual businesses. Charts only track transactions. its like receipts in the trash outside the store :D Warren Buffett used to collect bottle caps as a kid. Then would sort them to find out what drinks were most...

10:42

ValuePig Updated 

Net net or cigar butt investing is a form of deep value hunting. Stocks so beat up, the market cap is below the value of the assets on the balance sheet. Even trading below the cash on the balance sheet. So beat up, the market is pricing the stock as worth more dead than alive. I thought it was just a thing that happened in history book, or in the depression...

ValuePig

potentially 1.00 in value and trading 50-60 cents. MSN Emerson Radio has a history of trading below tangible book value when china gets sold and then returning to near book value when china is doing well. Short term assets are higher total liabilities and enterprise value reflects this as well with a negative enterprise value. Disclaimer. Penny stocks are...

19:24

ValuePig

Is chat gpt and Artificial Intelligence the next boom theme? Why are so many people talking about it recently? How long can this new trend create opportunity for , years, decades? How do we value the opportunity and avoid paying too much? Dont get ripped off and caught up in the hype, use math and valuation to price the reward and risk in a balanced logical...

ValuePig

The Buffet Indicator is comparing stocks marketcap to gdp. If the economy as measured by GDP isnt growing, then stock tend to bottleneck until growth returns. In previous stock peaks, 2000 and 2007, the price action peaked and retraced causing a bear market trend. To make it memorable, I overlayed disney princess castles, to burn it into memory.

07:26

ValuePig

As an ex commodities guy, I remember many times when the stock market sold off and how commodity futures behaved prior and concurrently. Often times there has been tops or turns in commodities before there a reversal in stocks. Can this be one of those, or are commodities wrong and getting the economy wrong?

10:42

ValuePig Updated 

Stocks in good times have a growth premium. In bad times the premium is crushed and the stock is priced more like a value stock. NASDAQ:TSLA

08:32

ValuePig Updated 

Summary: picking through the garbage to see if any value left for future. bankruptcy or big move in 5-10 years. Rolling short puts into stock for potential change based on new catalyst of joint venture. key concepts: Sizing- Having enough but not too much of an investment idea in a portfolio. Risk/reward- Assigning probabilities to various up and down scenarios....