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0dte 10y2y-yieldcurve 10yryields 2yrbonds 6e1! 6j1! agri agricommodity agriculturals agriculture ai alphagenerating amazon apple arbitrage argentina audusdshort australiandollar baidu bankingcrisis bankingstocks banks bearcallspread bearmarket betahedge beyondta bigbanks bitcoin bitcoinfutures bitcoinidea bitcoinminers blackscholes blackscholesoptionpricing blacksholesmerton blockchain boe boj bojexpectations brazil btc btc1! btcdominance btceth btcfutures btcgold btcspotetf btcusd bullcallspread bullputspread buythedip byd calendarspread capitalonefinancialcorporation cashandcarry centralbankpolicyimpact centralbanks cfd chartpattern chatgpt china china50 chinarecovery chips chipstocks citi cl cl1 cl1! clfutures cme cmefutures coinbase commercialrealestate commitmentsoftraders commodities comparitiveperformance consumersentiment containsimage copper corn cot coveredcall crackspread crisis crudeoil crushspread crypto cryptomarket cryptomarkets cryptorally cryptostocks currency currencymarkets dbs debtceiling debtcrisis dedollarization deficit dfj distillate dollarindex dowjones dxy dxyshort earnings earningsplay ecb economiccycle elections electricvehicles eminisp500 equityoption es1! etf etfapproval eth eth1! ethbtc ethbtclong ethereum ethfutures ethusd euro eurofx eurusd eurusdprediction ev eventdriven exports fed federalreserve fedpolicy fedwatch fees financials financialstocks fixedincome fomc forex fundamental futures futurestrading fxtrading gammascalping gartnerhypecycle gasoline gbpusd gc1! gdx geopolitical-risk geopolitics gold goldfutures goldlong goldminers goldplatinumratio goldprice goldtradingstrategy goldtrend google governmentbondyields growth gsr harvest hedging hedgingwithoptions henryhub hg hg1! historicalanalysis ho1! housing hype impliedvolatility indicator industrialmetals inflation interestrates intervention inventory invertedyieldcurve japan japanequity japanesestocks japaneseyen japanstocks jobsreport jp225 jpm jpy jpyusd largecap long longstraddle longstrangle marketoutlook mbt1! mcl1! meanreversion mes1! meta metals metalstrading mgc1! microbitcoin microfutures microgold microsilver microsoft momentumstrategy monetarypolicy movingaverage msl1! mtfa mzc1! nasdaq nasdaq100 naturalgas ndx nft nfttoken ng1! ni225 ni225long nikkei225trade nvda nvidia oilforecast oilmarkets oilrefining oiltrading opec optionsstrategies optionstrading ordinals phlx photovoltaic pivotpoints platinum policy portfolio portfolio-allocation portfoliorepositioning preciousmetals primer protectiveput putspread quantitativetightening ratecut ratecuts ratehikes rateparity rates ratio rb1! realestate realestatesector recession recovery regionalbanks regulation relativevalue reopening reservecurrency reshoring riskmanagement russia rut safehaven seasonalities seasonality seasonality-trading seasonaltendencies sector_analysis semiconductors sharperatio short shortsetup si1! signaturebank sil1! silver singapore smallcaps sol1! solana solusd sortinoratio sox soy soybean soybeancrush soybeanforecast soybeanfutures soybeanmeal soybeanoil soybeans soyfutures sp500index spf spr spread spreadtrading spx spx500 spxoptions spy steepening stimulus straddle strangle supersevens supply_and_demand supplyanddemand supportandresistance svb tariffs techstocks tesla thefuturesleap theleap trade tradingplan tradingtool travel treasurybonds treasuryfutures treasurymarket treasuryyield treasuryyields trendanalysis trump us us02y us10y us10y-us02y usdebt usdjpy usdollar uselections usequities usmarkets usoil usrecessions ustreasuries utilities utilitiessector value vix volatility volatilityexpansion volatilityindex volatilitytrade volatilitytrading war wasde weather wgmi wheat wti wticrude xaf xau xauusd xlre xlu yen yenfutures yenusd yield yieldcurve yieldcurveinversion yieldfutures yields yieldspread zc1! Less Tags Show All Tags
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There are ideas on different regional versions of TradingView:
Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk
30Y1!
, 1D
Short
30Y1!: Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk

As the tides of economic fortune ebb and flow, a spectre of recession looms over the horizon, whispering in the rustling of Treasury yields and the shifting sands of macroeconomic indicators. Recent economic data has painted a complex tableau of financial uncertainty. From declining PMI figures to a palpable deceleration in GDP growth, the economic forecast has...

Long ETH, Short BTC on Expected ETH ETF Approval
MBT1!
, 1D
Short
MBT1!: Long ETH, Short BTC on Expected ETH ETF Approval

SEC's unexpected nod for Ethereum Spot ETFs (“ETH ETFs”) through the approval of 19b-4 forms has ignited a fresh wave of excitement in crypto markets. This paper delves into the impact on ETH/BTC Ratio fuelled by this development. The ratio has been a laggard throughout the current bull run. ETHER ETF ADVANCES TOWARDS APPROVAL On 23rd May, the SEC...

Navigating Crude Oil Volatility Around OPEC Meetings
CL1!
, 1D
CL1!: Navigating Crude Oil Volatility Around OPEC Meetings

OPEC is a unique organization whose decisions impact national sovereignty, energy security, and most directly on crude oil prices. OPEC’s decisions have material influence on crude oil prices. All eyes on OPEC+ ministerial meeting taking place virtually now on June 2 (instead of an in-person meeting on June 1 as planned previously). OPEC is widely expected to...

Extreme Weather Sends Wheat Prices Surging
ZW1!
, 1D
Long
ZW1!: Extreme Weather Sends Wheat Prices Surging

Wheat plays a critical role in global agriculture and trade. Extreme weather has turned wheat prices bullish, rising more than 22% in a month after having languished for more than two years. After reaching their lowest level in more than three years in March 2024, prices have rebounded strongly. Wheat rally is driven by extreme weather events in multiple places...

Long 10Y, Short 2Y on Yield Curve Normalisation
10Y1!
, 1D
Long
10Y1!: Long 10Y, Short 2Y on Yield Curve Normalisation

World's most important and the largest financial market is the US Treasury. Annual issuance of U.S. Treasuries has exploded. A record USD 23 trillion of treasuries were issued in 2023. This market is experiencing gradual but notable shifts due to the Federal Reserve (Fed) recent tapering of quantitative tightening and the Treasury buyback. Collective impact has...

Long S&P and Short Real Estate on Higher for Longer Rates
MES1!
, 1D
Long
MES1!: Long S&P and Short Real Estate on Higher for Longer Rates

“The only bad time to buy real estate is later” cites investment wisdom. But, when interest rates soar high, real estate investments can and do hurt. Last week FOMC reiterated its resolve to fight inflation down to its target 2%. Inflation has been stubborn and sticky. It has shown signs of trend reversal towards resurgence. Chair Powell’s made clear that rate...

Tesla among top 10 losers. Next what?
TSLA
, 1D
TSLA: Tesla among top 10 losers. Next what?

Tesla is the 7th worst performer YTD in the Nasdaq-100. It is the 11th worst performer in the S&P 500. The stock stands 28% lower. Still, after reaching its lowest level on 22/April, the stock has rallied a remarkable 30%. On 24/April, the stock rallied 12% after the positive earnings call. On 29/April, the stock jumped another 15% after the announcement of the...

Portfolio Beta Hedging Ahead of Super Seven Earnings
SPX
, 30
Education
SPX: Portfolio Beta Hedging Ahead of Super Seven Earnings

You cannot predict the future. But you can prepare for it. Mega cap tech stocks have collectively lost USD 930 billion in value since Nasdaq 100 peaked on 21st March 2024. Will Super Sevens earnings turn the tide? Starting this week, the Super Sevens will start announcing first quarter results. NASDAQ:TSLA is up first on 23/Apr (Tue) followed by NASDAQ:META ...

Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs
ZCH2025
, 1D
ZCH2025: Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs

It is official. Inflation is back. But not everywhere. Food inflation is on the decline. All three major crops, Soybean, Wheat, and Corn have declined substantially. Bearish sentiments rings loud across agri with ample supplies combined with solid harvest expectations. Among crops, corn has fared best. Its prices have not declined as much. Corn outlook is...

Will Copper Shine Brighter than Gold?
GC1!
, 1D
Short
GC1!: Will Copper Shine Brighter than Gold?

Intricate dance between gold and copper prices is a tale beyond mere metals. It reflects global economic sentiments, industrial demand, geopolitical angst, and investment trends. Gazing into the crystal ball to decipher the future of the gold to copper ratio, a fascinating narrative unfolds, particularly highlighting copper's brighter prospects. Copper is...

Auction Dynamics Augurs Well for Long 2Y Short 5Y Spread
2YY1!
, 1D
2YY1!: Auction Dynamics Augurs Well for Long 2Y Short 5Y Spread

In US Treasury Auctions, the Bid to Cover ratio signals the strength of an auction. A higher ratio implies greater demand. As rate cut expectations and economic outlook evolves, so do the spreads across different maturities. This paper provides US economic overview, resultant rate outlook, and divergence in auction demand across different...

Shrinking Inventories Lends Support to Oil Prices
CL1!
, 1D
Long
CL1!: Shrinking Inventories Lends Support to Oil Prices

Crude oil prices have remained lacklustre and rangebound in 2024. Slow economic growth and abundant production have kept prices muted. OPEC's efforts of supply cuts haven’t helped. Neither have geopolitical tensions. Over the past two weeks, oil prices have once more started to pick up steam, supported by trend of shrinking inventory. Despite the price buoyancy,...

Semiconductor Bull Run: more steam ahead, but take caution
SOX1!
, 1D
Long
SOX1!: Semiconductor Bull Run: more steam ahead, but take caution

Some industries are notoriously cyclical. Semiconductor is a prime example. It swings to the extreme on both bullish and bearish sides. While the industry is in a bull run, investors can still participate in its rise but with caution. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (“SOX”) is a modified market-cap weighted index. It is composed of semiconductor firms involved in...

Japanese Equities Remain Compelling Despite Record Crushing Rise
NIY1!
, 1D
Long
NIY1!: Japanese Equities Remain Compelling Despite Record Crushing Rise

Animal spirits are palpable in the Land of Rising Sun. Nikkei-225 smashed through it previous all-time-high set more than 40 years ago. Japanese equity markets have turned steaming hot over the past year after stagnation through lost decades. Strong foreign investment inflows, positive impact from the corporate governance reforms, portfolio rebalancing away...

After Bitcoin’s Stunning Rally. What Next?
MBT1!
, 1D
Short
MBT1!: After Bitcoin’s Stunning Rally. What Next?

Bitcoin is surging through expectations defying rally. Bitcoin (“BTC”) stands 22% higher over the last seven days. At its highest on 28 Feb 2024, BTC at USD 64k was 7% shy of its all-time-high. Recent bitcoin (“BTC”) performance harkens back to the euphoric bull runs. Market metrics signal more steam in store. This note discusses BTC’s recent rally and the...

Bitcoin to continue outshining Gold In 2024
BTC1!
, 1D
Long
BTC1!: Bitcoin to continue outshining Gold In 2024

Bitcoin (“BTC”) – the millennial gold - continues to outshine traditional gold. BTC prices have climbed higher after the listing of spot ETFs. A wider bull rally in the cryptocurrency markets is also underway. ETH touched its highest level since 2022. The total cryptocurrency market cap is 14% higher YTD. A diverging outlook between BTC and Gold is emerging....

What Next For The Inverted Yield Curve?
10Y1!
, 1D
Short
10Y1!: What Next For The Inverted Yield Curve?

Markets are notorious for exaggerated expectations. They sense a tiger when all they see is a cat. Expectations on rate cuts have been no different. Despite the Fed’s speak on measured changes to policy rates, markets got ahead of themselves since late last year. Markets are now starting to align their expectations with reality. US economic data from January...

Extracting Arbitrage Yields In Bitcoin Carry Trade
BTC2!
, 1D
Education
BTC2!: Extracting Arbitrage Yields In Bitcoin Carry Trade

Bitcoin is known as digital gold. It is treasured as an investment asset. Much like the famous yellow metal, bitcoin (“BTC”) does not offer income through dividends or interest. This poses a challenge for investors seeking regular cashflows and income. One strategy that skilled investors use to turn BTC into an income generating asset is the cash and carry trade...

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