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How I Trade BitcoinHi Traders, Very rarely do i educate on public platforms, however i feel that this information will be hugely valuable to the wider trading community and help those who struggle to identify a trading zone. Building a tick list of requirements prior to a trade not only provides you a higher probability of long term success, but also reduces impulsive and emotional behaviour. In my opinion there is a huge misconception that 1 indicator is enough to become a consistently profitable trader, i feel building an area where price is likely to reverse based on multiple confluence factors will give you the 'edge' over the market that is required. Be sure to swipe left to view all 8 trading opportunities. Thank you for your continued support. DISCLAIMER: I am only providing my own trading information and basic techniques for your benefit and insight, you should apply your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal / strategy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn180388
85
Change of perspective: Maybe Bitcoin is dyingMy probability estimate for the south is 51% on a 12H to 8H time frame. My estimate is based on my own analysis and perspective. I changed my mind based on new evidence and what I think is a more robust perspective. It would be great to hear other perspectives. That's how we learn. Share and learn. I'm not here to be right or to make predictions etc. I urge all traders not to be influenced just by my perspective. You must plan your trades and trade your plans according to your own methodology. For more of a write up see here .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
6
BTCUSD How things can turn bad if you don't buy the right level?Hi everyone, Today, I wanted to share a bit about charts with you. So in this chart, I take the chance on 2 things that can happen with following assumption. - blue II is in place and we break above 7,537.00 from current levels - you missed the entry in 1h yesterday and missed the 3 waves at blue 3 (I would not have bought there personally) and - you absolutely want to be in because the chart says bullish sequence is break of 7,537.00 aiming at 11k in 4h, so you buy break of 7,537 stop below 7,394.90 because my comment said so Sometime, people ask me what I think about BTCUSD, NEOUSD etc... I always reply that I don't think anything, or more precisely I should say that what I think does not matter. Well, when I propose a chart, I have at least 3-5 alternate counts through the different time frames and I propose the preferred path (of resistance) and 1 option. So, obviously I think about a lot of things about BTCUSD, NEOUSD, ... but it does not matter because in 10 minutes, market would have changed and have to redo everything on the chart (hopefully taking alternate options I had, but then with a new configuration 5-6 new paths occur, etc...) So, a chart - my charts at least - should not be seen at the Saint Graal and you trade every turn. NO! A chart is a path that changes every tick of the market, so except if you are in a live trading room, with real time update, you should look at a chart for levels and invalidation. If there is no such things, then this is just blabla about what the author or the next guy thinks. I have greater respect for the major players in the cryptocurrency but they go like BTCUSD 15k by year end, 100k in 5 years, what do you do with that? Me? Nothing. The truth is in the price, maybe BTCUSD will be USD1mil or 0 in ten years, well I don't care. I trade with entry level, stops and target and I'm not in love with any cryptocurrency when it comes to trading. Investing is another story. If you have questions, you are most welcome to post a comment and do not forget to leave a like ;-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by The_202_Quants
Medium term downside?If what I have drawn on the chart can be considered a true bear flag then, in the medium term, we could be in for some significant downside. This is rule number 8 on pennants from stock-charts.... "Targets: The length of the flagpole can be applied to the resistance break or support break of the flag/pennant to estimate the advance or decline." So, IF this is indeed a true blue bear flag then a good estimation/target for the length of the coming downtrend would be roughly the size of the original pole. The original pole was roughly 5.2k USD and so we could expect a breakdown to be a similar length. This would give us a target somewhere around 4k USD region. As of right now I am simply WATCHING this formation and waiting to see how she plays out...a break below 7kusd could mean this is a true target and to begin to prepare yourself for such a move....anyways, this will be my last chart for today (i have been spamming them as i finally got some time to sit down and do some research) I hope you all have a wonderful day/night and good luck out there. Red Boar
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by TEXAGG22
1
Bitcoin. Anatomy of a financial bubble.Warriors! I'm bored, nothing to trade. Might as well make a little chart showing how Bitcoin is following the usual bubble pattern - textbook. 1- Displacement 2- Boom 3- Euphoria 4- Profit taking 5- Panic? There have been many signs, but the real panic hasn't happened yet, for example there hasn't been the volume. It could look like this: -42% in 2 days, probably slowed down by whales that took profit and wanted to buy back cheaper, could have been way way worse. So watch out traders! It could fall alot with no bounce at any time! Smart money's job is to keep distributing as long as the price is very high (9000$ compared to 200-300$ during accumulation phase is 3000-4500%) and let the bagHODLer delusional top buyers sell as low as possible after they distributed as much as they can. If I am correct the whales still have 1-3 million Bitcoins to dump on fools. Something like this can also happen, and very very often happens: Just use maths and cut your losses/take profit to reduce your exposure when possible. People that buy because Taurus is aligned with Uranus (this can't be real... but I know it is sadly) don't do well unless they are extremely lucky, and even then they end up losing anyway. www.washingtonpost.com I copy pasted some text from here :p www.investopedia.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
86
The importance of admitting you were wrong. I was wrong. Sorry.Hello. I have changed my background, I realized the full white one just blasts the human eye. Better go for something more easy on the eyes. I have to make a 180° on my previous bear position. In the trading & investing world, it is important to realize you were wrong and stay humble. If you don't, that's when you end up destroying your account. From what I saw I believed it very likely we drop all the way to 3500 before going to a bull market. I don't know if I said this exactly, but I at least might have led people to believe this. I was wrong. This is not likely. I zoomed out and saw what was happening around me, and I now strongly believe I was wrong. I am a bear no more. Believing we are going to reproduce 2014 crash and bounce on whatever trendline because it "looks similar" is stupid (I already posted an idea about this). I have now turned to an Orca. You know, the second biggest predator on the planet, and the most cruel animal on the planet, they love to torture their prey for hours before eating it. It's over. Bubble is about to pop. I will first show the graph for the short term. I guess that's what we're going to do, but that doesn't matter, I will next show what will happen long term. And it is not pretty. There's going to be blood in the streets and I'm not speaking metaphorically. A death cross will happen tonight, unless the bulls can push the price to 17000$. There's probably some of them that think it's possible. I also forgot to show the weekly MA 10, yet another resistance in the area. We are still following the usual bubble pattern and it's looking like 2014, I just think this time it will be worse. I'll explain later. There's so much data I don't know if I can throw it out all at once. I wanted to say, at my workplace there's this programmer guy, midly shy guy, just your average programmer I guess, back in early december when I started working closer to him he was pretty euphoric alwyas smiling laughing and extroverted I was wondering why he liked me so much gay or something? Well he started isolating himself 2 months ago "to focus on work" and complaining more and more and working long hours, and now, haven't seen him for 3 weeks he's having "medical" issues. After the double top to 11k when we went down he started being isolated and below 9k that's when he just vanished. I guess he's one of the victims. I hope for his health we crash soon? I guess? So he can sell, lose his money maybe, but at least he's free. Or maybe he sold and then bought back in on the "back to normal". In a while, we will get the suicide stories, the divorces and homeless people, there will be a ton of them. People are extremely stupid. The more something goes up, the more idiots put everything they have in and get lucky, the more the next people will put in. There has already been suicides. But it will get worse. Much, much worse. South Korea is going to be a bloodbath. Their "millenial" population was already deep in shit, but boy oh boy it's going to get worse. They thought crypto was the miracle magical thing that will give every one free magical money. It will end up being hell. Their doom. I'm betting on hundred of suicides at the VERY LEAST. ONE thing can save the bagholders now. A very evil person or group with alot of money that pumps crypto (not even sure it'll work out) to scam at a higher price, more people. It would end even more badly... But if they get caught what would happen to them would be worse than Mussolini Ghadaffi or 'Abd al-Ilah from Iraq. Let's zoom out and see where we are now: We have visited the long term investor average buy price twice, just like in 2014, and they have supported Bitcoin. The second time, we dug deep and found very strong support, bounced 100% to a double top (again). I will continue in an update.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
42
BTCUSD - Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutDear All, If you follow my previous TA, this is the part of it and a details analysis on the breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle. Since this is Educational TA, let me explain in details; What is Symmetrical Triangle? 1. Symmetrical Triangle is a continuation Pattern. So you need to look where is the entry. For this case, the entry is from bearish trend. Once the breakout is confirmed, it will continue goes downwards. 2. Volume for Symmetrical is similar with other pattern, where the volume reduced until it reach breaking point. For this case, the selling volume will at high for the continuation to bearish side. Few info I used in this charts; 1. MACD - This indicator to check on the market momentum, as you can see at the breakout, the 12 EMA is going to cross 26 EMA again and goes downwards to denied bull trend. 2. Stoch RSI – This is one of my favourite indicators after Volume and MACD, it show the market is just returned from overbought market. We are heading to oversold area again for a new correction. 3. I drew a 300 days SMA line from day chart as a big support at the range of $7282.5-7343.9. 4. Previous Support line also identified since we are expecting a bounce anytime from this pattern. The support at $7671.2 and $7430.3 is identified. 5. $7102.2 is the lowest target where that is a technical target based on Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Take note that the target is not 100% achievable and that is the reason why previous support/resistant and also SMA need to identified. This TA is for Educational purpose and not a financial advice. If you are happy with my charts and would like to follow more in the future, feel free to follow my profiles.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by OPassiveIncome
Case Study for Mismanaging a Disciplined Trade StrategyIn the most recent BTCUSD dip I made a series of mistakes that put me in a slightly nervous position overall, but still generally favorable. Over a series of trades I managed to find myself in a position with an average buy price of $7486.13. Trading profitably on the dips I reduced this average buy price to $7348.21. Throughout this series of trades I had multiple opportunities to take profit and this discussion will focus on trading psychology and process failure. Early in my trading session I had managed to identify successfully entry levels that were reasonably close to where I could make a "dip" profit. Generally my target is around 2%. Given the big dip from $9.2k to below $8k and given the duration and recovery of that dip from $10k I felt confident that the market was oversold and all of the order book charts indicated an overall strong buying to selling ratio. My price target was just below $8.5k and on the first move up it hit $8.4k and I felt like there would be an orderly move over time. What I learned with this recent price action was that trading bots and whales/funds that control them have disproportionate leverage over price action. Not being fully aware of their techniques, I decided against adjusting my price target and I was "too greedy" and completely missed my profit opportunity after being presented double my normal target over two periods. Now having missed that opportunity I was forced to double down knowing that the next price move would likely be much bigger and deeper. Trading for profit on the way down I was able to recoup some of poor positioning but again, I did not quite understand the techniques of these algo bots until near the end when I was able to make an adjustment to how I choose price targets to better compensate for whale/shark algo bots. Setting price targets for exiting my position and reducing my risk came down to three possible outcomes: 1) Sell ALL at a higher price that would make profit but also leave me no room for error if I missed at $7800. This price level would have still been poor risk/reward overall so this exit strategy seemed like a mistake. 2) Sell ~half (47%) of my position at a profit at $7400 and then sell the other half at $8000 for "break even" on that part of the trade. This seemed like a prudent risk management strategy as I would have funds to take additional profit if the market moved back down while leaving in place a position that could become profitable over a longer duration. 3) Sell ALL at the higher price target that would give me a much bigger target but leave me open to poor risk management again. This was definitely the worst option. So I chose 2) which worked ok in that the first trade target was hit as expected. Then, while watching the order book I started to worry because there were big sell walls below $7500. I thought about how stressful it would be to ride that position back through another big dip and because of fatigue also overly focused on this possibility rather than going back to my pre-defined strategy of hodling for $8k on half and trading with the other half. Clearly, stress causes one to adopt a risk averse mental state. And this kind of risk aversion usually leads to the panic selling and "weak hands" phenomenon of selling at exactly the WRONG time, i.e. when you should be thinking about buying. So when I saw the price being challenged at $7k to $7.1k with very clear algo bot action pushing the price in both directions with very light buy order positioning I became a pawn in this algo bot action and decided to exit early and go take a nap rather than have to sit through another big dip with half of my fund at risk. Rather than see any huge sell wall the sell-side volume relented and the price nearly hit my price target of $7.9k. If I had been more disciplined I could have set a contingency (less greedy) target below $8k but I changed my plan using no particular reasoning whatsoever other than fear of these algo bots.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by powderpc
4 Years of BTC and herd mentality in one chartHey guys, as you've seen on my previous forecasts on BTC and XRP, I've started to accumulate and increase my holdings. Besides the technicals, my bias is getting even more long biased due to the massive pessimism around inexperienced traders and overall media coverage. As you can see on the chart above, this is not the first time the world has witnessed such a huge drop on BTC. Back in 2014, when the total crypto market cap has dropped below 5 billion USD due to a massive sell off of -87%, the web was full of articles saying that Bitcoin is about to collapse. That it will end.During this phase, we've also witnessed the MtGox affair and the start of some regulatory talk. Some university professors and asset managers begun to throw out predictions that BTC will hit $10. Once price has started to recover, you've suddenly heard nothing more from these people. The sentiment has been switched to "keep our mouths shut" till BTC slowly gained bullish momentum again. What happened then? The very same newspapers and magazines started to write articles that BTC is now "hip" again and it might become a big thing in the future. As soon as price started to really rocket, the very same procedure has started again. Jamie Dimon/CEO of JPMorgan, marketwatch.com, CNBC journalists and many others listed thousands of reasons why Bitcoin is bad, risky, a fraud and of course why we all should stay away from it. Guess what happened when the price started to drop again in January? Right. The very same thing. There is no "this time it's different". This market is still in its infancy and yes, there are other coins that might become the crypto #1 but no one knows when it will happen and we shouldn't actually care about, because for now we clearly see a heavy BTC dependance on other alts - despite the diminishing BTC dominance. Long story short - I think it's extremely important to never, really never fall for any catching armageddon crypto headline out there. I am actually using all this as an contrarian indicator, meaning that a peak in both, heavy optimism and pessimism regarding cryptos should be a warning sign. People just went crazy in France a week ago or so, because some stores have been offering Nutella and diapers for a 70% discount. This thing has escalated so quickly that they've had to call the police. On the other hand, when people are been offering to increase their crypto holdings to buy back at a heavily discounted price of more than 70% , people are scared to death and even sell(!!!) their holdings with a massive loss. I mean..that's just insane. It's not about having the most accurate entry or exit. Think of Michael Burry (The Big Short) or other investment funds who act during or prior to such a crisis,bubble,healthy correction (call it whatever you want). They rarely squeeze a trade out from the very bottom to the absolute top. Sure, they're doing their best to do so - but in the end it's about the final result. And speaking of this, it simply doesn't matter that much if you've bought in at $6k or $7k. Hell, let BTC even drop to 5k or 4k. That would be even better, as we can buy at much cheaper levels. And once BTC and alts start to gain bullish momentum again, you'll hear the exact same words, you'll read the exact same headlines on the very same magazines and newspapers. And yes, there will be again regulatory talk going on, people spreading rumours, maybe some bans, etc. It just doesn't matter in the mid to long run. I've seriously read a comment below a tweet of Kim DotCom who advised people to buy BTC on the 5th of August 2016 with the words "Buy Bitcoin while cheap. Like right now. Trust me". You don't believe what an insane amount of hate comments he received and many were just like "mhmm alright". These peeps have probably the very same mentality to those who are laughing at others that say, BTC and alts with a proven concept will have another insane bull run in the near future. Don't be a sheep. Don't panic. Be patient
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by BudBronson
16
Bitcoin: BTCUSD New Trading Realities in a 'grown-up' worldTrading Bitcoin in the new Realities of 'Mainstream' When Reality Bites - How to Deal with it Dispassionately - or Miss up to 50% of all opportunities...trading for Adults in a grown-up world For those who like pattern spotting there have been three or four very good sell points off the Coinbase chart. Maybe 80% of the few people who read this will have Bull hats on, are inherent, full-on bulls. Only 10 to 20% will be bears. If one or the other we will miss 50% of all trading oppotunites, roughly. Who was looking for sell signals recently (after that RHS failure) ? No, because most of us are bulls we're only looking for positive signals. Try to be dispassionate about Bitcoin - that is not easy, being as we're humans. We're programmed to want to join the herd. A bison gets FOMO too, that's why he wants inside the herd and not out. Penguins too. But we are not penguins. We need to stop acting like one. Agreed? We need to be like doctors who will get sued for giving the wrong diagnosis, however bad that might be. The patient wants truth not platitudes. That's how we need to view Bitcoin. If we love it too much we cloud judgement and lose trade opportunities. So strive to be dispassionate. Or it will cost you roughly half of all opportunities. Look at the trail Bitcoin has left...get down off your horse and look...look how good those sells were on the breaks...how the first two break and then come back to retest the little dynamic from the underside and that's the sell with stops say 50 higher (never touched) and then look at the third and last arrow in the sequence - the market is moving fast at this point and there is no retest this time. And then the series of highs running right into the resistance line at 12472. Each was a fantastic near term opportunity to mine another 1000 points minimum out of this monster, and the last 2 breaks were 2000 points - that's 6000 points in breaks in 3 days. That is 60% of total value of Bitcoin right now. How crazy is that? You NEED to be Ok with shorting as well as going long to survive this market. You are not going to get every one, but half would have been good, very good. And look how simple the patterns are ! That ain't rocket science is it? One single line of dynamic support (upside doesn't really matter too much in a downtrend), we just need to get a line under the counter-rally - behaves very differently, obviously, in a slower market at top half of chart than in fast market where patterns are obscured in the noise more easily.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by sumastardon
1
CRYPTOCURRENCY - INVESTMENT VS. the FUTURE of CURRENCYHey Guys!! I really want to know what you think about cryptocurrency. Do you see it as an investment opportunity only, or do you use crypto as much as you can as currency on your day to day life? Many people are starting to see bitcoin as a big investment opportunity, but wouldn't it give it more value if people actually used it as a currency rather than just invest money and pull out when they have made the gains they wanted? Tell us what you think in a comment below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Tradingstrategyguides
6
This Is The EndFew people realize it, but the cryptocurrency markets have already topped. Bitcoin is currently bouncing back to the $4,500 area, at which point big money bottom accumulators, who were taken by surprise by the recent aggressive dumps, will proceed to exit their positions by selling Bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum. This will create a blatantly visible double top on the daily and weekly. Bitcoin's price will then proceed to decline by around 80% over the next year or so, powered by profit-taking, miner dumps, government crackdowns, exchange closures, and panic selling by hundreds of thousands of schmucks who bought in at the top of the bubble. My target is $999 or lower by the end of next year. I've been in bitcoin since 2012. It's been an incredible ride. But at this point, there's nothing powering price anymore beyond the expectation of higher prices by junk/dumb money speculators. This fundamentally defines the top of a speculative bubble. This is the exact same market sentiment that was around during the 2013 run-up from $100 to $1200 and subsequent bubble pop. It was simply impossible for many market players to imagine that Bitcoin prices would plummet. This is a severe psychological limitation that's especially pronounced in the cryptocurrency markets. Greed is rampant and big money is out to profit as much as possible on the backs of the endless new, dumb money coming in. Just a couple of weeks ago, a Russian grandmother ("babushka"), a distant relative, called my people looking to invest her life savings into digital currencies. She has no information about bitcoin beyond the fact that she'd heard prices were going up and that it was an easy way to make more fiat. C-list US celebrities are also jumping on the bandwagon. Floyd Mayweather, Paris Hilton, and Kevin Hart are just a few of the folks who recently sought to promote worthless ICOs and cryptocurrencies to their social media followers. Ray Dalio, head of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund with $150B AUM, recently expressed his thoughts on Bitcoin. Knowing Dalio, I know for a fact that he'd never talk publicly about anything without having done incredibly thorough research and dampened his psychological biases by speaking with the most talented people in the space. Dalio said bitcoin is a massive speculative bubble. I tend to agree. It's hard to imagine Bitcoin prices plummeting if you've been in the space for a while. You've drunk the Kool-Aid. You're part of a community that believes one thing and it'd be wrong to believe otherwise. My friends, I urge you - take a step back. Look at the facts. Look at the charts. Listen to the people who have decades of financial market experience and who've been through dozens of hype cycles. They've lived it - they know what they're talking about. Bitcoin won't die. Its price will simply decline by around 80%, as will the prices of the majority of altcoins. Until the next hype cycle.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn38668
154