Bitcoin-btcusd
Position 000010 Has Been Closed With 43.53% ProfitSince march 2018, 8 positions have been closed, all 8 positions have been closed with profits.
8 WIN - 0 LOSS
DISCLAIMER:
I'm not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist. I'm not a finance professional through formal education. Trading is just one of my hobbies!
The Trading Signal of my Crypto Trading System is not a financial advice, there is no guarantee that you will make profit from my Trading Signals. Crypto trading is very risky, so don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
BITCOIN and GOLD! Short term connection that can reveal a lot!You are all familiar with the similarities between Bitcoin (Digital Gold) and Gold on the long term and on a cycle wide scale.
Similarities that have allowed to accurately price Bitcoin's bottom:
Or still see an early entry on the Golden Cross occurence:
Even spot the parabolic extension from the 0.382 Fibonacci level to the 0.618 peak:
What is very interesting is the similar candle action on the short term price movement between the two. Again Gold appears to be leading BTC!
Can it be a coincidence that both store of value assets have broken into a new bull cycle and made their peak at the same time?
Surprisingly Gold is more aggressive trading well above the MA200 and since yesterday even above the MA50. This is also better illustrated by the fact that Gold managed to make a peak on the 5 Fibonacci extension (from the consolidation phase), while Bitcoin managed to peak at 4.236.
This is purely an educational analysis intended to develop the general notion that Bitcoin and Gold (digital store of value and physical store of value) are by nature interlinked.
What are your thoughts on this study? Can Gold show the way to BTC even on a shorter time frame?
As usual let me know in the comments section!!
The Bitcoin speculative frenzyHello and welcome to my idea.
Since early 2018 I was following the progress of this gigantic bubble explosion in this idea:
I want to make a new clean idea now.
I have been following it closely and noting people psychological state.
Recently I check trading view homepage ideas mine are not in here, I am
pretty disapointed as I was trying to show that in these situations bears get
ridiculed and bulls "group up" on them to kick them while they are down.
I do have some content but I wanted more, so it is not only "a coincidence"
"a few bad apples". I have a great number of twitter screenshots on my PC
thought, shall these posts disappear... Also have trading view & other.
I believe Bitcoin 2019 bull market is very close to the end.
What we witnessed in 2018 was not a correction but the start
of a new trend to the downside.
While it was possible that BTC retraces to 0.382 only after hitting 3k,
0.786 was much more likely (~$13500). We got to 13000 today.
So I think the timing for this idea is perfect.
The global economy is completely insane, the FED decisions are very
questionnable, on top of that every one, completely uneducated people,
are getting into investing. The consequences are going to be disastrous.
The examples I am thinking of are:
- The mississippi bubble in the 18th century that resulted in decades of bad economy and then the french revolution ("Let them have cake" - Marie Antoinette)
- The US stock market bubble of 1929 which resulted in World War 2 ("The jews and Poles are parasites and the jews crashed the economy")
We are living at a time where instant gratification is the norm, people are more delusional than ever, and as I said, complete bubble, interest rates and bonds yields are at their lowest in human history, plus the financial world got invaded by complete amateurs.
This month, beyond meat IPO went up 300% in days. There are plenty of crazy examples.
Bitcoin is simply the graphical manifestation of the insanity that is going on.
Here is a recent idea about the Bitcoin bubble within a bubble that is going on.
And another.
We could go for an ABC as described here
Or 12345.
Bitcoin could ABC to 500$ then hoover in the 500-2000 range for a long while. It could become a currency like the other ones.
Why would it not get replaced by something better thought?
There are a few bubbles very similar to Bitcoin, but first I would like to focus on Sugar. In the eighties.
By "last time they said" I refer to what Bitcoin investors keep repeating,
that last time Bitcoin went down some people said it would keep going down and that did not happen.
Which makes absolutely no sense to anyone rational / capable of understanding probabilities / just
understand how bubbles work.
> Great accumulation bottom great entry
> 3.618 total extension, 0.618 wave 5 extension
> Up 650%
> Took exactly the same duration to return to baseline both times
> 0.786 retrace "Back to normal" or phase 6 in hyperwave terms (see bubble charts describing the "back to normal" phenomenon)
> Not completely clear accumulation, no high reward to risk entry (too many eager gambling buyers?)
> At 4.236, wave 5 between 0.618 and 0.786, I expect the top to be in that range
> Up 350% after going parabolic. Total when this is over should be around that number.
> We shall see how long to go down to 3000.
> Almost at 0.786, we probably (?) make it there?
Let's take a look at 2011-2013 "bubble". I do not like the word bubble, definitions are all bad. "Prices rise far above instrisic value". Who is to say what the intrisic value is? Demand and supply is what defines it. If bubbles "exist" as defined, then gold is permanently in a state of bubble, all fiat currencies too. Pretty much everything all the time. This is not a "back to normal", just want to look at extensions.
Mainstream media and all the people invested in it are (OBVIOUSLY for the people invested) saying this is "back to normal".
They are living in an echo chamber and telling every one how they think we are "back to normal", like we expected something else from people that bought...
I have explained how this was soon to fail and shown evidence after evidence. Facts and facts and facts, and even undeniable proof of what was going on, and have shown what always happened in history, just to be ignored or ridiculed. This time it's different.
Just got ridiculed because "it did not happen in the 2 weeks after that post was made". I am being nice, 2 weeks is more than most people attention span nowadays.
Scams can last a long time before dying, but the way things are, I doubt it will last much longer... Surely not 20 more years like Madoff's ponzi scheme.
The investors in this scam have turned insane by greed and the % move (most were probably not very smart to beging with), so this is why it is called "dumb money".
Completely ignoring facts and risk and logic...
A reason for the price to go up is "last time they said". Where some technology is mentionned and the fools that got trapped in this bubble believe that a great number of people were actually bearish on those technology (which is never the case).
I made a list of a few of what was supposed to be the "future" "just like last time they said" and just failed completely.
There are more failures than successes but we remember successes only, and people are not open minded enough and not interested in history (or too lazy or too greedy and in denial) to know that.
Besides, they always seem to mix the technology (Blockchain) which is certainly very interesting, and Bitcoin which is not very different than a ponzi scheme.
As a speculator I am trying to guess what a top could be. Momentum should slow in the 12000-14000 area and I would bet on the downside.
Price could get close to 15000, and the public go completely wild, whales would take this chance to sell their large stacks that can hardly be cashed out (we have seen sells of only 5000 spread over hours drop the price by 10%...).
It is actually not super interesting to trade for plenty of reasons, but I will anyway, for fun & education.
SORRY FOR SPAMMING BITCOIN CHARTS BUT THIS IS BEAUTIFULI.
TOLD.
YOU.
SO.
On an "academic" perspective this is so beautiful, but first I want to celebrate. Because I saw it coming. I saw it all.
And who else did?
I of course predicted that ignorant people would tell me how wrong I am and "got burned".
So please note what I wrote on this chart in green on the mid-upper right area:
(This is just an example, we could also get a 1 year
bear market till 3000, then 6 months of bull, etc)
Here are ALL my public BLX charts.
BLX weekly charts:
BLX daily charts:
There is no cherry picking these are all of them. There is no "weekly and above charts" filter, so BLX is the closest thing.
And only BLX afaik has Bitcoin all time. I told people there would still be Bitcoin bubbles. But no 1 million.
Smaller bubbles... Technically if we make it to 13k it will be as big as 2013. 2013 was a > 4.236 extension and so is 12k.
Most crypto investors cannot figure out when I am on a 1 hour timeframe or monthly timeframe...
They just "assume" I am on the same as them, whatever it is. Most are clearly not traders.
I have way too many BTC posts to go filter them. And so many updates I was posting a ton 1 year ago.
Good thing I keep BLX clean enough. So. Here we have it.
SO, back to hyperwaves. Made a post about this before. Tyler Jenks is the one that gave it the name.
I just call them asset bubbles. Or super bubbles. They always behave the same manner.
It is over and 80% odds going back to phase 1 once a week closes below the phase 4 trendline.
According to him. But he only had a sample size of a few dozen.
What I can say is bubbles behave the same way, always.
Made a post about this:
Got an idea about Bitcoin financial bubble describing it:
By the way... I found this screenshot in the idea. LOL. Once again...
Got a recent chart for Bitcoin with descriptions:
On the monthly chart:
Going to wait a few more days before posting that monthly chart.
No, I do not think we will go to zero in a straight line, and I am not 100% sure we go to zero zero.
We might thought...
Just look at BCH ...
11k to 17k was not phase 6 then?
I thought it could go to 20-30k even 100k, but phases 6 never go past ath right?
I have to post this apparently...Not that it will make a difference with 90% people...
At least it gives me some practice. Always good.
No point for me writting a large textwall explaining everything simply, those that need this do not read it or understand it anyway.
I am not a trend expert. I am not a trend trader. I find it simpler to find reversal points at support at the end of corrections and typically miss the meat of the moves.
Some people do this, most (successful) follow the trend, whatever works for you is good. What you have ease doing.
But I think I am qualified enough to explain what a trend is. Plus I study them all the time to try and figure out where the pullback ends.
Let me make a few drawings a 5 years old can understand:
Now, let me take this 1 step up, making it a little harder, but still with a simple drawing even the people raging at me can understand.
Now, I will make it slightly harder once again.
Let's take it one step further. If anyone is having difficulties, start back at point 1.
Now, to the next lesson, lets combine the 2:
Putting it all together:
There are exceptions:
Some practical exercises:
Are you biased? Or are you not?
Trends are easy, corrections are hard.
Only 1 type of trend. 21 types of corrections.
Can look like this:
Or like this:
Or like this:
Not like this, it cannot look like this:
Or like this:
BTC – A Subtle Art of Setting Stop LossesHi Guys!
We are sure many of you lost money being discarded from your positions even though you correctly predicted the general direction of the price.
It happened to us as well . Many times.
After such event, you feel bad and temporarily freezes from entering the new position because of the fact you feel insecure and you lose your self-confidence .
Unfortunately, many untrusted exchanges take their position in granted .
They see the whole order book and they see our stop losses.
The art of setting them properly is to set them where no other participants do the same.
In such a place, it is very likely our position maintains and we earn money together with manipulative participants of the market.
Unfortunately, that’s the way it is.
The same happens on forex but not in the exchanges but on the brokerage level.
Please take a look at the charts .
Everything is described there.
Please let us know what you think?
Do you have any other interesting strategy?
Remember set your stop-losses at the least obvious place .
Thank you for reading and your time.
MASSIVE Hugs!
WBM Team.
Do you believe in Bitcoin Fractals? If so then take your pick!I am going to keep it simple on this one. After all Bitcoin is not a complicated asset, it follows the same patters and cycles again and again (longer term to a greater extent).
So if you are into Fractal Analysis I have something for you that may be of interest. Since the December bottom we have a steady rise. Steady and not aggressive/ parabolic as BTC is still in the Accumulation Phase will most likely stay there for quite some time before it breaks or makes new All Time Highs again.
Steady price action calls for clearer patterns with more standard entry/ exit points. So I attempted to break down this steady rise into 3 Fractals, all having as a common factor the duration, which is approximately 53 days. Assuming the current one (3rd in succession) lasts for 53 days as well, what remains to be calculated is the relative price action within.
If it follows Fractal A then it (Fractal C) should make an equally steady decline of around -22%.
If it follows Fractal B then it (Fractal C) should trade sideways within 4900 and 5500 until its completion.
If I am taking a pick I would go with Fractal A mainly because it (Fractal C) is close to Double Topping around the same time (22 days). Also the rise from their bottoms is more close.
Take your pick and let me know what you think in the comments section!
P.S. For the record (because you may misinterpret my approach), MA analyses and Fractal pull back levels are only suitable for buy on the low, sell on the high to short/ medium term traders. Long term investors (like me) should keep what they already have on their portfolio and stick to adding/ accumulating Bitcoins on those pull backs.
In the meantime, feel free to take a look at some related material on BTC:
4 Beginner Bitmex Mistakes That Can Ruin Your Whole Portfolio! 4 Beginner Bitmex Mistakes That Are Ruining Your Chances of Profits And What You Should Do Instead
1. Over Leveraged Trades
No matter how great of a trader you are or how much experience you have in technical analysis, over leveraging is a sure fire way of racking up loss after loss in BitMEX or any margin exchanges.
Bitmex allows you to borrow 100x against your deposited bitcoin.
At 100x, a small 0.5% move in price will get you liquidated. That’s right, just half a percent in price movement of the underlying asset at 100x is all you get for safety.
Example : If you 100x Long XBT at $5220, your liquidation point would be $5246. That’s only $26 worth of room.
The lower the leverage the more room you get per trade.
Guide to Success: Keep leverage low, 10x maximum but try to use up to 5x mostly. This ensures you have more room and time to become profitable and take profits.
2. Over Position Size
Everyone has done it at one point. You know the price is going to move a certain way and you want to capitalize as much as you can on the opportunity, you type in a big number and hit the long or short button. Bam! Price moves the opposite direction and you get this email: " Your Bitmex Position Has Been Liquidated "
Ouch.
Guide to Success: Use only a set percent of your total portfolio per trade. Use an amount that you wouldn’t be too worried about losing but would also get a nice return if the trade gets profitable.
This ensures all losses are manageable. It’s very critical to not to importantize one specific trade idea.
3. Lack of Patience
You haven’t traded in awhile and are itching for a position, you see no good opportunities so you look at the 15 minute chart. You enter a trade that looks great for short term profits. What luck! Your position is in profits, now it's time to exit quick before the market turns the other way. You hit the “Market” button. Uh oh! You just lost more money than you should have made. What happened here? Simple, the BitMEX trading fees are very high if you use market orders. If everyone could make easy money on BitMEX, the platform would not exist. BitMEX makes money from trading fees. When you execute market trades, you pay a hefty 0.075% fee on the total size of the position you are trying to exit. At higher leverage, you pay higher fees. This isn’t the only fee you should expect to pay BitMEX.
Guide To Success : Never use just the shorter time frame charts to trade, always look to the further out time frames to see if they all align. Use limit orders to enter/exit a trade and prevent BitMEX from taking a huge chunk of your profits
4. Emotional Trading
You finally did it. You made a bunch of money on BitMEX in one trade. You’re euphoric and ecstatic about all your winnings. Knowing you’re on a win streak you go into the market once more with a bigger position. What happens next? Splat! You are liquidated, your winning streak has ended in a bad loss. Why did this happen? One word, emotions. You believed your winning streak would last and let euphoria control your trades. The opposite can happen during a losing streak, in that case it can lead to revenge trading with high capital allocation and high leverage. Win streaks don’t last and losing streaks can last forever.
Guide to Success: Always think and be analytical. Do not let winning (greed) or losing affect how you execute your next trade.
Conclusion: Trading on BitMEX is not easy. If it was everyone would be Bitcoin millionaires. By recognizing mistakes common traders make, you can prevent yourself from making the same silly mistakes and increase your chances of making consistent profits.
Feel free to support this post written by me, Shaggad, with a like!
Thanks for reading!
-Shaggad
Bitcoin Cross is about to happen! See how to trade the pattern!The 1D MA50/ MA200 Cross (Golden Cross) is about to take place and you are still wondering how to trade it?
Well the last time that happened in July 2015 following the previous bear cycle's bottom, Bitcoin pulled back by around -35%. Then the price rebounded towards a Death Cross (1D MA200/ MA50) that made it consolidate before a new (and final) Golden Cross that pushed BTC to new highs.
The Distance between the 1st Golden Cross and the Death Cross was around 62 days and the (D) between the Death Cross and the 2nd Golden Cross 42 days.
I have tried to plot the same pattern into today's chart. The conclusion is yours!
*Bonus the Ichimoku Cloud which plots a path ahead of the Crosses!
It never hurts to look at related material:
The MA cross on the 1W chart
The pull back explained by the RSI
The Japanese Housewives (& Why Bitcoin rallied so much in 2017)For the past 4 or 5 centuries afaik Japanese housewives have been running the household, taking care of kids making food and also managing the money. By the 2000s, these housewives were in charge of nearly $17 trillion.
After WW2 until the late 90's, the Japanese families were saving up, and it worked well.
But this happened in the 80s to 90s:
Europe rates are super bad now too, next in line are the USA. it's like after every bubble and recession there is a big deflation with horrendous rates.
USA probably should have experienced this after Japan and before or at the same time as europe, but they cheated with the FED etc. Only postponed the innevitable. Anyway...
In the first decade of the new millenia, facing no returns from keeping their family money in the bank, japan housewives, historically risk averse, changed from a very safe saving culture to a more aggressive active investing one (doesn't mean they were going super crazy either).
One thing alot of them did was sell their worthless 0% returns yen, and buy Australian Dollars that had really good interest rates (and their stock market is pretty much invincible even if WW3 pops out they'll be fine).
This is called a carry trade. What ended happening was the large exit of yen from the country caused the currency to fall to a 20 year low. We also call this a crowded trade.
And what happened next well, small exit, and every lady out there is running for the exit.
Easy profit for those that know what is going on BUT this is really long term, what I would do - assuming I know what is going on - is this:
If you were able to build a story like this, you would have some straight wins for 6 months, easy. (This is "3- Build a bias" in my previous idea "What makes a good trader? How to trade? ").
Now I did not want to make this about Bitcoin, but the fact is that in April 2017, Japan passed a law making Bitcoin a legal form of currency!
Some of these housewives (probably those that won in 2000-2008 lol) started looking at it. And they're managing easilly 20 trillion $ at that point. They are careful and responsible so I don't think they all went all in lmao.
Deutsche Bank published a report at the craziest point of the bubble, showing that nearly HALF of the entire world Bitcoin trades in October 2017 were in Yen, so basically from these lovely ladies again. They're bigger than any pension fund. One massive herd that have the same constraints (mainly the japan central bank and regulations).
On Bitflyer apparently the volume is only 12 million dollars (for btc/yen), removing all the wash trading fake volume and also bitmex we have I think 300 million or something? (Most of it is CME+Coinbase+Kraken+Bitstamp+Binance+Bitfinex just add these 6 - not sure if we can trust Binance and finex)
Even with just Coinbase Kraken Bitstamp CME then the yen volume is still far from being half.
Looks like the japanese left Bitcoin to rot (just like they left the aud?) and could not care less now.
They are now less afraid to take risks and it looks like they got better at it. Rekting every dumb FOMO person on the planet...
Actually I have no idea.
You better bet that Deutsch Bank, that published their report about Bitcoin in December 2017, knew about it way earlier. They just release it after they were long Bitcoin for a while and looking to dump on foolish sheep.
Big pension funds guys like this, they have to disclose their positions right? But Japanese households, the biggest easiest to profit from whale, do not.
I am sure we can find out more.
Let me know in the comments if you know more about this I'd appreciate it :p
The Key Elements to Succeed in The Financial MarketsIt was expected that the main message which I tried to pass to you in the last educational post would not be so popular. I tried to talk about things which are not catchy and their effect will be shown only in time. Work hard and reach your goals. Work hard and become a profitable trader. Work hard in order to get access to new opportunities. But at the same time, I got an additional confirmation of why 90% of people fail in trading. Why «gurus» and «legends» are so popular and why the community was spoiled by pushing forward simple solutions which can make millionaires from everyone. On the other hand, not too many millionaires here, so it seems the quick and easy route, as expected, does not work.
We have to understand that the majority of people in any trading community is made out of people who don’t have an interest to become successful and change their life to the better. They want to become rich as soon as possible and, for them, sweet dreams have higher priority than hard work with real results. For those, who could get the message correctly, we will move further and in this post.
Let’s talk about the key elements which any successful trade must have.
Let’s talk about the basis of success!
Let’s try to make the clarification of what you must have for profitable trading and which tools to use.
It’s pretty simple – there are 3 key elements.
KNOWLEDGE, EXPERIENCE and TOOLS - are everything you need to succeed in the financial markets!
There are no other ways or magic tools which can bring you to success.
Only these 3 elements will become the solid basis for reaching your goals. Let’s talk about them with more details.
KNOWLEDGE - you should be very naive thinking that you can become successful without knowledge.
But it is not sufficient and you can’t stop half way: knowing just a part of what is required won’t be able to move you to the top in any field.
Knowledge is what separates novices from professionals. The level of knowledge makes the difference between failures and success.
Look around...
How many people you can find who become successful without knowledge in their field? I guess not so many.
I guess Elon Mask reached his level only because he is smart guy and he spent many hours learning something new. That’s why he holds 2 degree in physics, one in economics one in business and a PhD in energy physics. I’m sure his level of knowledge allows him to think out of box and create the things which can change the World.
Mark Zuckerberg had good knowledge in programming and it helped him to create Facebook. I want to know, could someone create something big, interesting and useful, or just reach the top without knowledge? I think we all say - it’s impossible and it will be the correct answer. An attempt to build something or reach a goal must be supported by the knowledge in that field. And it’s logically. And what is illogical then? Novice traders deciding to base their decisions on little knowledge or none at all.
Why when you start trading you decide to skip knowledge and you don’t want to waste your time and efforts on acquiring it? How are you going to become rich without the most important element?
Knowledge plays a very important role. It gives you the solid basis for your growing as a trader or investor.
Knowledge helps you to understand what you are doing and how you can reach your goals.
Knowledge allows you understand where you are right and where you made mistakes.
Knowledge helps you become better.
Day by day reading about trading, you grow as a trader. With solid knowledge you have a solid support behind you which helps you move in the right direction and reach your targets. The Real World is open for everyone who wants to improve himself and become smarter. The Internet provides tons of knowledge. You get any answer you want just by typing the question in Google. And you just need to make this step and start learning what you have to know for successful trading. When I tell you - you must work hard for become successful - think about it as you have to put all your efforts for getting new knowledge in the field where you know nothing. Everyday try to learn something new. Try to understand what you did yesterday and how it effected on you. Get knowledge from books, articles, videos, courses and become better day by day. I started 12 years ago and to this day I still invest regularly into new knowledge and I will continue to do so in the future as well.
Start each day thinking - Knowledge is Priceless! Try to spend each day a bit of time to learn something new. Find the time, put your mind to work and put efforts in learning how to read the financial markets. Even if you spend 30 minutes or one hour per day in some time you will be able to create a solid basis for the next 2 elements which you need to reach your goals.
EXPERIENCE - the 2nd element after knowledge. Probably you already know how experience helped you in your life. How it helped you to avoid mistakes or do something in the right way. Experience in all activities plays a very important role too and the same goes about trading. If you passed through some situations, there is a good chance that in the future passing through the same situation you will do things faster and better and in a correct way. Experience allows you to do things properly and in combination with knowledge it creates something really powerful. With these two elements you will know what to do and how to do it.
Let me give you a simple example:
You started trading without knowledge and you blew up your money. Which experience did you get from this? If you don’t care about knowledge and experience – then you would not have paid attention or learned any lesson from this. You would repeat again the same actions and by no surprise you will meet again with the same result.
But for those who would like to really succeed in the financial markets you should take some lessons from the previous scenario:
- you lost money because you made something wrong, analyze what that was
- you made mistakes because you did not know how to trade properly, now you know how to avoid blowing up your account if you will be in a similar situation
- if you do the same next time and change nothing, you will get the same result.
So next time, you will try something new based on your knowledge and experience, and expect a better outcome. The past experience can protect you in the future and help you to avoid mistakes. Also the past experience can help you to improve yourself in order to get better result. Knowledge will give you the ideas which you will apply in order to become better. Experience will remind you when to apply which knowledge for which particular situation. It’s a very simple example of how experience in combination with knowledge can make better results for you. But there are millions of different situations which can be useful for you and can help you to become better too. You just need to gather your priceless experience and combine it with your knowledge in order to become better.
The problems of all novice traders are:
- they don’t understand the future effects of their actions in the present
- they don’t have the necessary experience to know why not trade without stop orders or why they need to follow the proper money management strategies.
Knowledge can explain these simple things, but not all of us like to follow the theory without trying it by ourselves. Probably we must test it in order to trust it, and that’s ok it’s human. That is why personal experience plays such an important role. When I told you - work hard – I meant that you have to spend time and put efforts to combine your past experience, make your analysis, understand it, learn from it and use your newly gained experience in the future.
You can get experience from everywhere. Every trade can give you a piece of experience and it does not matter if it was a winning or losing trade. Both scenarios are good teachers. Every mistake which you made is priceless for your future. Every new market movements can give you insights on how to act in the same conditions later. Everything which can be learnt from experienced traders should be taken by you in order to grow your personal experience faster.
TOOLS – the third element, and the one which is the most popular among the novice traders. TOOLS combine everything which helps you to trade and make money in the financial markets - trading signals, trading strategies, trading robots, market overviews - all these make up the tools we use. Novice traders like to think that they only need a profitable trading strategy or profitable signals in order to start making money.
Unfortunately no. That is so far from real trading. Trading Strategies and trading signals won’t make you rich because of several reasons.
Trading signals like trading strategies are only a tool.
Can you imagine that you will become a good musician only if someone can give you a good musical instrument?
Can you imagine that you will become a good photographer only if you can buy a good photo camera?
There are many example which can be taken confirming the main idea - tools are just tools. If you don’t have the knowledge and the experience to use these tools, they will be unworkable and useless for you. That’s why the same situation we can see with novice traders, when they search for and get tools, but know nothing how to use them correctly.
Not all tools can be suitable for you and your goals.
For example, if you want to create music, probably a photo camera is not the best tool for you. If you want to build something, probably a guitar is not the best tools for this.
The same goes about the trading. If you use the wrong tools which are not suitable with your lifestyle, nature, conditions and your goals – what makes you think you will succeed?
I know good examples when traders bought trading strategies for day trading, but they could not follow them because they had to work full time every day. They broke the consistency of these trading strategies and got results which were far from expected ones.
I know examples when traders started using trading signals which were focused on long term trading and big capitals. Having small capitals and breaking the rules of proper money management – their results were not amazing either.
The same goes about traders who wanted to trade following trends, but they used range strategies or trading signals based on such strategies and all these were against the nature of the movement. These traders started having negative results and lacking the knowledge and experience they were usually pushed out of their comfort zone and this feelings further made them make more mistakes and break more rules. It’s all downhill from there.
As a result, using workable tools in wrong conditions which also don’t match your lifestyle, nature and goals is never a good idea. If you do this, you will be as close to failure as possible. Don’t be surprises if you results will be far from expected ones.
In order to understand all this, you need to have knowledge and experience. Trading signals, trading strategies, trading robots won’t make you rich if you don’t have the knowledge and the experience to use them correctly. But combining these three elements, they will give you everything you need for successful trading.
When I tell you - work hard - I mean you have to put a lot of efforts trying to find the workable tools for you. But the best variant is the one where you gained enough knowledge and experience to be able to design the tools which will match all your nature, lifestyle, conditions and goals.
CONCLUSION
In this post I tried to explain to you why knowledge, experience and tools are the main elements of successful trading in the financial markets. It won’t be possible to reach your goal having only 1 or 2 of the elements. They must work together, like the legs of a tripod, 3 parts supporting each other make the solid base together.
Working hard, you will be able to gain and control these 3 elements which will help you to reach your goal in the financial markets. If you are lazy, keep searching for trading strategies and trading signals thinking that they will make you rich.
In the next post, we will talk about - what do you need for profitable trading in the financial markets.
You will learn 5 different things which every trader must have in order to make profit in long run.
If you like my work, please support it by your LIKE.
If you have something to add, ideas, thoughts, please leave them in comments. I will be glad to discuss with you. Don’t forget to read the other posts about trading, they will help you to understand better where you are now and what you have to improve in order to start heading towards the 10% successful traders.
90% of Traders Lose Their Money! Do You Really Want to Succeed?This is quite possibly the most important message I can deliver to those of you who’ve decided to start trading in the financial market. This message is for those of you who’ve joined this Financial World viewing trading as a new business or perhaps as a way of having fun with money.
I’d like to take this opportunity to impart a lesson which has the potential to push you in the right direction from the beginning of your journey and lead you towards new opportunities and a better life. If I fail, there will be more disappointed people leaving the financial market and only because they stepped onto the wrong path. I would be disappointed by this because I don’t like when people lose money trying to improve their lives. Broken dreams don’t motivate.
I want to share with you ideas, thoughts, and suggestions which might help you reach success in trading or at least push you away from the traps and pitfalls which are so enticing to the uninitiated. I won’t be able to promise you that you’ll become a successful trader or investor. As usual, everything depends on you and your efforts.
Different studies may report slightly different numbers but the core conclusion is the same - the great majority of traders lose their money and leave the financial market disappointed.
I hope that you can accept this statistic as fact, even though there are so many «millionaires» all around us. Trading is a difficult thing if you’re not ready. Trading is a very simple thing if you know what to do.
Let’s talk about you.
You decided to change your life and opened trading accounts in the financial market as a means of achieving your goal. Though you may have gotten your start in crypto or forex, I want you to understand that at its fundamental level trading works in the same way.
This was your first step in this direction and you’re ready to make money day by day. You’re ready to become a millionaire and are imagining the new house with a big pool, a super fast car, and attractive people all around you.
You deposited money and started trading. The faster the better, as you have a lot of things which you must buy as soon as possible. If you’re lucky you’ll be able to make some money and receive confirmation that trading is for you and it’s so easy to make money. You keep trading more and more.
If you’re not so lucky, your fairy tale will probably be finished much sooner. You’ll end up with 0 in your account and plenty of disappointments. If you used all of your money, including your savings and you lost them right now - you must surely be very disappointed. Your dreams are broken and you don’t know what to do.
Novice traders keep repeating the same mistakes – no matter who they are or where they’re from.
It wouldn’t be too far from the truth to say that novice traders like losing money. In fact it seems that novice traders actually do their very best to lose money and if there were a reward for this behavior some of them could win an Oscar statue.
I can say this because I’ve traveled this road when I was super cool, blowing all of my money back when I started trading.
I can say this because of the knowledge and experienced I’ve acquired studying and trading for 12 years.
I can say this because of the messages I receive almost every single day from novice traders asking me for help on how to manage their losing positions and how to recuperate the money they’ve blown up the day before.
How many of you have walked the path from novice to professional trader? How many of you think, “Shit, why do I keep losing money trading… maybe I’m doing something wrong?”
People fail in the financial market because they do nothing to become successful!
No pain. No gain.
Let’s take a short poll:
1. Would you like to become rich very quickly without any effort?
2. Would you like to work hard in order to become a successful trader and change your life for the better?
Please, be honest with yourselves. The vast majority of people will have picked the first option because it’s catchy, because it’s the simple way. I will do nothing and become rich, yes, why not!!!
It’s probably possible in your fairy tales, but the real World is a little bit different. In order to become successful, you must work hard towards achieving your goals! This truth isn’t only applicable to trading in the financial market, but everywhere you want to achieve your goals.
You must work hard every day taking steps towards your goal.
You must work hard when you don’t want to.
You must work hard pushing through failures.
You must work hard when nobody believes in you.
You must work hard when even you stop believing in yourself. Work hard, every day work hard towards achieving your goal.
Boring and unpopular? It doesn’t sound very catchy… right?
Maybe a little, but it’s far from the simplest way to success. In fact it’s not simple at all. If it were simple everyone would be doing it. Take the easy way and you’ll have brief success on paper, but do you really need success on paper? Perhaps the practical solution which can actually lead you towards success is better?
It all depends on you. Do you really want to change your life for the better or not? Do you really want to open up new opportunities for yourself? It really depends on you. Do you want financial independence or not?
Hard work separates those who have no goals in their lives from those who really, TRULY want to succeed at something. Please, decide for yourselves, are you ready to start working hard every day to become a professional and as a result become a successful trader?
Are you ready to study trading?
Are you ready to gain new experiences?
Are you ready to pass through failures - to fall and get up every time after falling, and move forward day by day?
What TO do:
If you’re ready, you will be rewarded. There is no other way towards success. There are no magical tools or super secret paths which can lead you to the Top. There is only one workable way - work hard! If you want to join these 10% of successful traders in the financial market you have to do what those top 10% did. If you want to approach becoming one of the 10% of successful traders in the financial market and you put effort into this, one day you will join them. Because believe me, they put in the effort. Have no doubt about it.
If like many people you’re too busy and have a full time job, study thirty minutes during your break or commute. If you can afford to study one hour per day you’ll learn twice as much in the same amount of time. Follow this routine and in one year you’ll be far advanced from where you stand today. If you have more time, you will be able to absorb more knowledge faster. The more time you have and invest in trading, the quicker you can accumulate the knowledge you need to succeed. How long it takes depends entirely on how much time you’re willing and able to invest. Even the turtle finishes the race, as long as it starts it.
What NOT to do:
If you’re not ready to approach trading this way, you can test how lucky you are. Keep following the fantasy where you don’t need to put effort into reaching the end goal. Keep following people who promise you’ll become rich very quickly and in a simple way.
Gurus make tons of money selling you a dream. They sell you magical tools, super profitable trading ideas, unique trading strategies and they reveal to you the «secrets» which will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. Of course, all these things you will get after buying. You buy the dream, you pay for the illusion that tomorrow you will start a new life. You want to follow the simplest path which leads towards success. But in reality, this path leads to nothing.
Are you lazy?
To those of you who are lazy, you can follow them, those who entice you with the sweet and aromatic picture of your future life, where achieving your dreams won’t require any effort. When you join the 90% of losers from the financial market, don’t be surprised. You did nothing for something more. What did you expect?
Which path will you choose?
Ask yourself this question now, once and for all: Do you want to be a loser or do you want to be a winner? If you decide to become a successful trader, you must remember: Everything depends on you only! Believe in yourself and your capacity to work towards achieving your goal. Work hard towards making your dreams come true and: DO. NOT. QUIT!
Good luck on this journey!
In the following posts to come I will talk with you about: What you need for successful trading and how much work you need to become one of the 10% who succeed.
If you enjoyed this post please support my work by pressing the like button, and leave a comment!!!
WHEN CAN YOU START TRADING FOR A LIVING?A user asked me an interesting question : "I’ve been studying trading for a while, I have good and bad days now but i am positive. I can feel my experience is growing and I like trading. I’m trying to figure out when I should start trading full-time. How much income should I expect to earn from trading?”
Today’s topic: At what point can trading provide your full-time income?
This is a very common and excellent question to ask yourself in order to define your trading goals.
An overview of this lesson:
1. Prerequisites to trading for a living.
2. Capital requirements.
3. Getting this capital and how to manage it.
4. Conclusions and recommendations.
Topic in focus:
After acquiring knowledge and experience trading, you feel ready to take the next step towards financial freedom. When should you leave your job and start trading full-time?
Beginning traders typically transition through a common cycle of experiences:
Desire: Get rich quick. The beginning trader starts with little to no knowledge or experience.
Reality: The beginning trader loses some or all of their starting capital (most of us have been here).
Quit or Grit: Many beginning traders quit. Those who persevere with passion and motivation push forward.
Structure: Continuous learning, testing, and gaining of experience.
Confidence: Results confirm that you have the skills necessary to profit long-term.
Question: Is it time to start trading for a living?
How much monthly income can I reasonably expect to earn when trading for a living?
How much starting capital would allow me to trade for a living?
Let’s do the math:
Talking about Forex or Crypto, Stocks or any other market, by utilizing a good trading system, money management, and emotional control, an average monthly profit target of 5-10% of your trading capital is achievable.
Requisite trading capital:
To understand when you can make a living from trading full-time, living expenses and tax/reporting laws should inform your monthly profit objectives. Let’s look at two simple scenarios:
Regarding monthly living expenses, Trader A requires $1,000, while Trader B requires $5,000.
With $1,000 in monthly living expenses, Trader A requires $10,000 – $20,000 trading capital.
With $5,000 in monthly living expenses, Trader A requires $50,000 – $100,000 trading capital.
Is this too much, or too little perhaps? Let’s examine this and explore solutions if you lack the requisite starting capital.
How to increase your trading capital:
With a focus on expectations vs. reality, psychology, common issues, and solutions, we examine two scenarios:
1. You don’t have the requisite starting capital but still expect to achieve your monthly profit objectives.
2. You do have the requisite starting capital and want to start trading full-time immediately.
1. You don’t have the requisite starting capital but still expect to achieve your monthly profit objectives.
Expectations: You have $1000 – $5,000 and expect to make 100% profit monthly which you will use for living expenses.
Reality: Stop. Get this out of your head. While you may be able to achieve such results one or more times, with such high risk it’s only a matter of time until your deposit drops to $0.
Psychology: Unreasonably high expectations inevitably lead to failure and bad self-esteem at best, denial at worst. Without a high morale, you may well decide to quit trading when you’ve only just started down the road. Has this happened to you? Please mention it in the comments if you’d like. You’re not alone.
Solution: Patience! If you don’t have the requisite starting capital this is not the time to leave your job, it’s time to accumulate. You must keep your income stable until you grow your capital to a point where 5-10% growth represents your monthly profit objectives. There’s more (very simple) math in the conclusion of this article regarding how long this will take so keep reading!
2. You do have the requisite starting capital and want to start trading full-time immediately.
Expectations: Earn 5-10% of your trading capital per month.
Reality: This is achieveable and sustainable BUT – you must be prepared for DRAWDOWN. What is drawdown? Drawdown is the unavoidable period when your capital diminishes because your strategies aren’t giving positive results.
Problems: Every legitimate trading system/strategy has drawdown. Are you prepared for it? Growing your capital by 5-10% per month on average also includes months where you earn 1%, -5%, -10%. Even -20% is still a valid drawdown for any functional system. On the flipside, there will be months where you’ll surpass your monthly objectives and maybe earn 15% or 20% instead of 5%.
Psychology: Are you prepared to see your starting capital decrease? These situations can induce volatile emotions and push you into making mistakes like panic trading. Remember that emotional control is an inextricable part of professional trading and this skill is honed with practice and patience.
Solution: If you’re just making the transition to trading full-time and want to use all of your capital, consider backing up a bit. Pretend that you only have part of your trading capital, perhaps 25-50% of it. Use only an amount which will not impact you emotionally when you’re at a loss. Using this reduced starting capital, attempt to reach your monthly goal of a 5-10% increase. Use this time to train your emotional control and strategies. Patience will pay off here. By the time you reach your requisite starting capital you will have more experience, improved emotional control, and greater capital. Using this method will make everything easier.
Conclusions and Recommendations:
A stable 5% average growth will double your starting capital in 15 months.
You would get to 10x your starting capital in 48 months – that’s 4 years.
If it sounds like a lot think about this – in 4 years you will get your trading capital and a HUGE AMOUNT OF PRICELESS EXPERIENCE AND NEW KNOWLEDGE.
Because over these 4 years you have been trading with a proper money management technique, you have learned multiple trading strategies, but also have gained a considerable amount of trading experience that will aid you in the future.
How about an average of 10% growth? An average 10% monthly growth will double your starting capital in 7 months. A sustained 10% growth per month will allow you to make 10x in 25 months. That’s only 2 years.
So, to keep it simple, with a targeted growth of 5-10% per month, it should take you 2-4 years until you reach the capital which will allow you to start trading for a living.
Is this an exact estimation? NO! It depends on many things, but the main factor is yourself. You will have the time to learn about trading, create your trading plan, fine tune your strategies and train your emotions. You will face drawdown periods and your emotions will make you doubt your system. Again, money management is going to play a key role in your journey to your goal.
For some people it will take less time, for others it will take more. It depends also on your available time, your dedication and even your natural abilities. For some it may be easier, others will need more training. But the ones who consistently use good trading practices will succeed.
Recommendations. As usual, my personal creed is that you should focus on safe trading. This will allow you to reach your desired deposit size, even if it takes a little longer. Trying to make super profit will increase your risk, and increased risk is the path to liquidation – you’ll blow up your account eventually, it’s just a question of time.
I notice that more and more people are losing patience and want to have results overnight – of course the crypto bull run has helped feed this type of thinking and it is no secret that I am very much against it – impatience and rushing into trading pushes you into making mistakes, taking bad trades, and panic trade without a clear plan. This can only lead to disappointments. And it does, I see it over and over again.
I suggest that you follow 3 targets while building up your deposit which will allow you to make your living from trading alone:
1. Protect your deposit.
2. Earn stable income in the long run (5-10% per month).
3. If there is an opportunity to make extra profit, use it, but keep following proper money management.
To make 100, 200, 300% per month, it’s not such a cool thing if the next month will get you to 0. But to make even 5% month by month, year by year is the path of a real professional.
I have a few questions for you:
Do you have a goal to trade for a living and be able to do it at your own pace?
Do you think a 5-10% average growth per month is an achievable target?
Would you be satisfied if in 2-4 years you would be able to trade for a living – or is it too slow for you?
For those who trade stocks – do you think this is possible? Slower? Faster?
Do you have anything to add to this post?
Please share your answers in the comments!
COMPARISON OF FOREX, STOCKS, AND CRYPTO!In today's video I go in depth on the pros and cons of trading each market. A lot of retail traders complain about aspects of certain markets and use the wrong tools for the job in the market they choose to trade.
There are plenty of options for every trader out there!
If you are interested in learning more about probability distributions and my proprietary indicators to trade, follow the links below.
Also, read the linked trading idea.
When Trends of Different Time Frames ConflictTrading is complected, because Price is superimposed wave of price activities on different time frames.
When trends on short, medium and long term time frames move in the same direction, price trend is clear, as a whole.
On the other hand, when trends on different time frames against each other, range happens and price trend is hard to predict.
This happened within the past two days on BTCUSD.
On short term to medium term time frames (15 minute -> 2H), there were multiple Oversold/Support (Blue) signals, which indicated strong support.
On long term time frames (169 minute, 4H), there were Bear (Red) signals.
On 339 minute, there was Overbought/Resistance (Yellow) signal.
On 4H, 678 minute, there were Bull Pullback (Light Green) signal.
Blue and light green is for Bull, while Red and Yellow is for Bear. The against-each-other pattern reflects the range situation of the market. Bull and Bear both believe their side will win. Nobody has 100% certainty to say which side will win.
So a good policy to handle this situation is staying away from trading until the range is broken.
A useful signal given by "9 Seasons Rainbow Multiple Time Frames Pattern" is Oversold / Support (Blue) -> Crazy Sold (Fuchsia), which indicates an attempt of break down is going. If it reverses, Fuchsia turns back to Blue, it indicates a failed breakdown.
Yesterday, there were two attempts to breakdown the support, the first one failed, while the second did breakdown.
Sometimes people make judgement by combining all the information they get, including their experience, signals from the indicator, ideas from other traders, news, or even their emotions. In my latest idea "BITCOIN GOT VALID SUPPORT, BULL MAY TEST 4050 RESISTANCE SOON", I assumed the failed breakdown will lead to retesting 4050 resistance, which has been proven to be the opposite of the real price move. It is a lesson for me: it is important to focus on objective facts and ignore all kinds of noise.
Comparing the 2014-2015 with the 2018-2019 bear markets!Fundamental analysis only!
TLDW;
What makes the 2018-2019 bubble more bearish:
More scams (shitcoins - ponzis - cloud mining scam - giveaways)
Big shitcoin increase (too many shitcoins - all fighting each other for liquidity)
Shitcoin inflation (Too many premined shitcoins / ICOs - no fairness)
Easier to short (Way easier for people to short BTC etc, because they don't believe in them - sucking fiat value out)
Cash settled futures (Big players got in early and had this all planned - Also Cash settled futures suck liquidity from spot markets
Lots of new scam exchanges and fake volume (Some of these exchanges might be stealing coins from people or trick them to buy scam coins)
Bubble in a bubble in a bubble (BTC - ETH - ICOs all fueled each other. First Bitcoin created interest in Ethereum, which then created interest for ICOs, which held Ethereum, which went up and then people took profit into Bitcoin - Essentially a leveraged bubble!)
ETH. FIAT and Stablecoin pairs (Bitcoin's price is partially affected by people using it for speculation. Bitcoin also drives this market. So when it is used less / has lower price, shitcoins deflate too! Also arbitrage sucks money out, as there are too many pairs / exchanges, so liquidity is fractured)
Dummer money got in (Like Crypto Cobain said, the IQ of people getting in after each bubble is lower... Why? Because back then it was harder to get into Bitcoin. People had to be more technical and educated to understand it).
Mt. Gox coins being sold in the market (Mt. Gox 'locked' coins started hitting the market, something that didn't happen in 2014-2015)
Back then the market cap was much smaller and there way more lost coins as a percentage (also GBTC had just launched and its 'locked coins' were a big percentage of the total amount)
Stablecoin wars (fractured liquidity and people selling 1$ for less - Millions lost by retail that was gained by malicious players)
Hash wars (Bcash split - liquidity crunch as well as Bitcoin being dumped for hash power)
Finally in 2013 there was an 80% correction. So the 13 to 1200 rally wasn't done in one go. It took a big break before the last big rally.
What makes the 2018-2019 bubble more bullish:
No Mt. Gox collapse - No Willy (the rally was legit, I don't buy the : Bitfinex printed Tether out of thin air FUD). So the rally was organic and real, without having a big exchange collapse.
More Liquidity and on ramps (many good, regulated and unregulated exchanges, along with many other ways to buy Bitcoin like ATMs, vouchers, etc)
Improved custody and security (Hardware wallets, custodial solutions like Gemini, Coinbase, BitGo and Casa Hodl)
Many OTC desks and Indices (Easier to buy/sell big amounts of coins without affecting the spot market a lot)
Big boyz getting in (Bakkt, ErisX and even the probability of an ETF being approved)
Crypto funds (back then there weren't many, if any approved crypto funds. Most got approved in 2017-2018-2019)
Regulatory clarity (in 2014 there was a lot of fear Bitcoin could be banned etc. Now it is legal and clearly defined in many countries like the US, EU, Japan and South Korea)
Better mining (More efficient mining, along with liquid options to hedge, more decentralized and with bigger-long term players getting in)
Less inflation (Most big coins like Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum have smaller inflation rates than they had back then)
Financial products (Bitmex, Cryptofacilities/Kraken, Huobi, Bitflyer, OKex, Deribit and LedgerX offer liquid futures and options products)
True believers own more (The hodlers, the hodlers of last resort, the ones that truly believe in this game, who are now more certain than they were back then - forks also helped true Bitcoiners to increase their Bitcoin holdings by holding Bitcoin!)
25-30B got into ICOs (Just the shitcoin market alone bottomed at 40B, out of which 2.5B was in stablecoins. Some of it has gotten back into Bitcoin or shitcoins)
More talent and money (People that work in this industry probably reinvest some of their gains back into the market)
Way more good educational material (Back then our understanding was not as great and good information wasn't easy to find)
Shitcoins provide a lot of free marketing and education to Bitcoin by proxy, as well as provide Bitcoin with a clear use case - Shitcoin speculation!
Crypto borrowing - Use Bitcoin/Shitcoins as collateral to get fiat, without having to sell your coins!
Crypto lending - Earn money by lending your coins/fiat for people to trade with it (Bitfinex, Poloniex, Liquid)
Bitcoin/Shitcoin Utility - Joinmarket, Lightning, Maker DAO, Masternodes, Staking (Holding crypto to make more... Crypto by providing specific services, essentially restricting the supply) - I truly believe that Staking (DPoS, PoS, Masternodes etc will drive the next bubble really high. Projects like Loom, Maker, Edgeless, Augur, Dash, Ren etc make me believe that there is a lot people that will get in because of this.
Decentralised trading tools for traders (Bisq, Liquid, Ren, DEXs, Stablecoins)
Even more lost coins, Bitmex insurance fund growing and ICOs still holding ETH (lol-lol-lol)
Central banks have take risk away from the markets, by lowering rates and printing a lot of money. But this has also lowered the returns investors expect... Which makes many investors turn into more risky investments. Why risk 100% of your capital for 5-10% returns on junk bonds, and not risk 100% for 1000-10000% by just doubling/tripling your risk? More QE is coming and the total money supply has significantly expanded since early 2015.
Populous Hits Bottom, Time 2 Profit (2000%)Populous (PPT) Overview
AT A GLANCE
Populous is a P2P (peer-to-peer) invoice discounting platform that is globalising what is currently a localised and limited market sector. It is a global invoice trading platform built on Blockchain’s distributed ledger technology.
Invoice discounting is a form of funding that instantly unlocks the cash tied up in outstanding sales invoices. Business owners allow invoice buyers to buy invoices at a discounted rate in order to unlock their cash quicker. Once invoices are paid by the invoice debtor, the invoice buyer receives the amount previously agreed upon.
Populous uniquely connects business owners with invoice buyers on a global scale by leveraging the security, transparency, and speed of Blockchain via XBRL data, Altman Z-score formula, smart contracts and stable fiat-pegged tokens. We will disrupt the traditional invoice discounting system by eliminating the need for third parties or financial institutions by connecting businesses with global invoice buyers directly.
Populous (PPTBTC) Chart Analysis
PPTBTC Long term chart:
Here we can see that PPTBTC hit a low point on the 18 Feb. ’19, which marks a higher low compared to the low back in 4 Jun. ’18.
For the first time since April ’18, PPTBTC is now trading above EMA10.
Biggest volume bar since May ’18.
MACD and RSI curving up.
All these are signals that are pointing to a breakout to the upside.
HOW TO BECOME STRONGER
The wiser you get, the smarter you get, the better you get at what you do, the more security that you build for yourself, the stronger you become.
How to become stronger?
Face your challenges face to face.
Sit down daily and take time for meditation.
Strength will result from your efforts, the growth path will be decided by your intentions.
Namaste.
BTCUSD D3/W1 charts (3/14/2019)The D3 chart looks a lot more promising than the smaller TFs at this time. A pennant/symmetrical triangle is currently printing and a bullish break should have price targeting the $4150/60 level as well as place price just under the neckline of the possible purple IHS that some people are watching. RSI continues printing an ascending channel but traders should watch for a possible bearish drop through channel support.
The W1 chart shows the multi-year ascending channel I spoke about in the smaller TF update I posted.
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/14/2019)Good morning, traders. The consolidation for Bitcoin continues along an S/R line (H4 dotted red horizontal line) that's been prevalent since December. I have continued to readjust the H4 RSI descending channel to more correctly fit the price movement. At this point, we see RSI nearing a potential break of the channel's resistance as well as having just recently broken the short-term triangle's resistance. However, price remains just under the 21 EMA after having bounced off the bottom of the ascending channel this morning. This has price at the apex of a triangle created by the descending broadening wedge's resistance and ascending channel's support. The daily chart shows a possible ascending wedge printing in red. Based on the height of the wedge, that would signal a target of around $3590 which also is at an S/R level as noted by the blue horizontal line and another HVN.
If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. If this were to play out, it would be a strong liquidity grab to fuel that price appreciation. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold.
The weekly 200 MA is sitting at $3408 right now, so it is possible to see price fall toward that level as that is also the ascending support of the monthly symmetrical triangle. Furthermore, as I have continued to mention, price is not out of the woods yet so we cannot rule out a flash drop to $2400 either. Interestingly, for channel traders, that would confirm a large ascending channel from the 2013 high to the 2015 low to the 2017 high. This kind of drop would need to just appear as a wick on the weekly chart with a close back above the 200 MA, otherwise we could be in for a much longer correction.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BTCUSD D3/M1 charts (3/13/2019)The D3 chart shows a possible IHS forming for those who subscribe to the idea of an IHS bullish continuation pattern. The shorter term target, as we can see, targets the neckline. A successful completion of the pattern suggests a target of the R3 pivot at least, based on the height of the IHS.
The monthly chart shows that a possible symmetrical triangle is printing. A bullish push through that triangle's resistance should create a target of around $5200/$5300, based on the height of the triangle, taking price right into the orange supply and the monthly 21 EMA. A breakdown of the triangle would have price targeting the bottom of the large corrective descending wedge at around $2400.
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/12/2019)Good morning, traders. It looks like we had just a tad bit of a drop overnight which price has been rectifying this morning after having dipped below the H4 pivot. Price is now above the 21 EMA on that TF and RSI has continued to print a descending channel. H$ MACD is curled up and looking for a bullish cross. The small descending wedge that printed gives price a target of $3900, bringing it back to the top of the local TR/EQ of the ascending channel. I have readjusted the ascending channel to fit the recent movement. We can also see a HVN in that same area, but once through that then price should be targeting the top of the ascending channel and R1 pivot.
It should be a relatively easy move to the R2 pivot/EQ of the overhead supply/EQ of the ascending purple channel once price moves through $4048. However, it is there that we can't be sure what will happen. It seems most likely that price should retrace back down toward $3900 from that point and then push through the descending ATH resistance. However, we can't ignore the possibility that price just takes off all of the sudden without the retracement. There is enough room on the daily RSI for this latter possibility to occur. As far as the purple ascending channel goes, it is preliminary and may not hold, but it aligns pretty well with price movement which is why I'm watching it.
The daily candle is currently printing a possible hammer reversal, but traders are cautioned about acting solely on it until the daily close and confirmation. D3 chart continues to look like a pause before continued upward movement. Weekly is not an easy read due to the larger upper wick a few weeks back but it isn't looking awful at this time which is a positive since the lower TFs are looking more bullish for now.
If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Bitcoin Continues Solid (Bullishness Remains Intact) + AltcoinsI am looking at Bitcoin (XBTUSD) on the 4H time frame and consolidation continues to happen with Bitcoins bullish potential remaining intact.
We are seeing solid sideways action while almost all smaller market cap. altcoins are moving up strong.
Let's take a quick look at XBTUSD on the 4H time frame, feel free to hit like now if you want to so we can get started... :
Bitcoin has been printing higher lows since the 27th of February.
We can see a bounce each time EMA200 (bold orange line) is tested.
Our trendline from the 7th February worked as support on the last drop, XBTUSD didn't reach EMA200 and bounce before that, a small but valid bullish signal.
Both the MACD and RSI are showing a strong curve up which can open the door to additional bullish action.
Conditions for change: A break and close below EMA200 would invalidate most of these signals and a new analysis is needed. This is all based on the 4H time frame.
Altcoins Market Update
Needless to say, the altcoins are all producing massive numbers, we've been tracking the altcoins months -facing strong resistance from many Trading View readers yet we remained bullish and strong-, and shared many, many trades that are now generating 100-200% profits on a weekly basis.
This action is indicative of the market bottom already being established and I believe this can be just the beginning of something much, much bigger.
When I think back in time before the last cryptocurrency market bull-run, you would always see similar action to what we are seeing today.
Bitcoin goes little bullish and the altcoins explode. After the huge altcoins explosion for several long weeks, then the retrace comes and Bitcoin shoots up.
The same scenario doesn't necessarily need to play out, but there is a big chance that we will be seeing additional bullish action from the altcoins. You can check many trades and analysis shared in the "related ideas" below... Make sure to hit like.
Bitcoin Weekly Update
I will be sharing the weekly update in the comments below.
Thanks a lot for reading and continued support.
Namaste.
