How to chart Premium/Discount to NAV for BTC Closed-end FundsThis is very different from my usual analyses, but I still hope you enjoy!
This chart calculates the premium or discount you are paying/receiving when trading GBTC . If you don't understand how such a thing can happen I will explain at the end!
For now I will explain how I created such a chart and how you can do it yourself! This can be applied to other bitcoin Trust/Fund.
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How it's done
The goal is to get the premium or discount (P/D), For this example we will look at GBTC :
1. To do that we need to divide the price per share by what the share is really worth (in our case the value in bitcoin of the share). This will give us the ratio of the price vs its value.
Price per share / Net asset value per share
2. We get the value per share by multiplying how many BTC we get per share by the Bitcoin price.
Net asset value per share = BTCUSD*0.00094680 <---- This value can be found on the Fund website
3. We substract 1 out of the ratio to get the value of the (P/D).
(P/D) = (Price per share / Net asset value per share)-1
4. To chart this we go to enter a symbol and enter : GBTC /(BTCUSD*0.00094680)-1
Like I said this can be applied to other BTC fund. Say you want it for QBTC: QBTC.U/(BTCUSD*0.00112383)-1
Extra Notes:
-BTC per share values change so verify before using mine you could be mislead
-I suggest using a line chart, but you can experiment!
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How to interpret
1. If the value on the chart >0 the fund is trading at a premium and for values <0 it's trading at a discount.
2. Value are in decimal so if you see a value of -0. 05 the fund is trading at a discount of 5%
3. Values will tend to normalize around the annual fee for the fund(ex: GBTC -> -0.02).
4. After market values will be based on the closing price of the fund, but will continue to fluctuate since Bitcoin is 24H.
Wait for the market to be open to get real time premium/discount
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How does this happen?
Often when we see a premium or discount we can generally blame it on 3 key factors:
Supply and demand , Management team and expectation. While pretty self explanatory if you want to more info I suggest you check out this Investopedia page:
www.investopedia.com
I hope this helped you and your trading. Thank you for reading!
Bitcoin-btcusd
Similarities between Cup and Handle and A BullflagThis Bullish log chart for BTC shows a clear cup and handle
Yet these could be acting as a quasi-bullflag, flagpole at the same time.
Both experience an upward move initially (cup, flag-pole) and further consolidation period (handle, bullflag)
Both are bullish but experience a similar development as bullish tools. That will always continue to form over time.
The handle if viewed in a 3D state can be seen as 'protruding' much like a flag on a flagpole. Creating this distinction.
Educational chart on current danger with BTCSo this is example of classic trading textbook pattern called Head and Shoulders where breaking the neck line results the down trend. This is just educational chart on the current possibility with 4h and 1h bitcoin/usd chart. Pattern is not complete yet, breaking 30000$ is hard since it is strong psychological support level. And at 30k$ massive rejection is seen as well.
Bitcoin Dip Buying - Part 2: Risk ManagementSo we finally got a signal today! The alert conditions of the indicator worked as intended for me and others that DM'd me. Having a signal to trade is the start but it is worthless without having a proper trade structure around it to build a strategy.
To that end I have updated the indicator with an automatically drawn entry, stop, and target that can be user defined to personal risk profiles.
This video talks about today's dip and explains how to use the new functionality of the indicator. Once again and always this is free for people to learn and hopefully profit. Any questions just leave comments below!
Knowledge Is Super Power! How to Make Money in Simple Way?I don't understand the majority of traders who search for trading signals services, spend money for buying trading signals, and believe that such an approach will make them rich. I don't understand the strong wish to be dependent on a signal provider and his or her ability to provide quality trading signals for the audience.
If we are given something we depend upon the giver and isn't it better to know how to fish instead of waiting for a fish from someone?
Trading in any financial market can be simple for everyone. Of course, if you know what you are doing and how to catch opportunities from a price movement. Maybe you think it will need years to become a master of charts and predict future price movements? To tell you the truth you don't need to predict future price movements at all. It is an amateur's way of thinking and of course, it is wrong. What do you need, it is just to follow the market. That's all!
I prepared for you the examples of 3 trades which gave good profit. They are based on a trend-reversal and trend-following setups. They will be the same in different timeframes and different markets. How many years do you need to study all of them? I guess we shouldn't talk about years. Maybe several weeks if you know nothing about trading. How much time do you need to learn the simple rules of proper money management? Maybe 1-2 days? Do you think it really takes a lot of time and effort to catch an uptrend as we have in the BTCUSD market? The majority can do it without waiting for trading signals from someone. But why the majority prefer to do nothing in this direction? It is a good question.
You want to spend time and money for buying trading signals thinking that they will make you rich. Don't be so naive. There are no people in the world who will make tons of money for you for nothing. But there are people who can teach you how to trade properly and make consistent profit in the long run. You must remember, that only you can make yourself a successful person and change your life for the better. If you don't want to do it, why other people should care about you?
Knowledge is a super power! It is a well-known fact and successful people will remind you about it one more time.
Thanks for your attention!
BTCUSD May See A Slow Down Based On Bitcoin Volatility IndexHello traders!
Today we will talk about Bitcoin Volatility Index and we will show you how to understand and read it compared to the BTCUSD chart using Elliott Wave theory.
Well, BTCUSD is in an impulsive rise from March lows and currently we are observing the final wave 5, mainly because of a rise out of wave 4 triangle, which in EW theory suggests the final move before we may see a deeper A-B-C corrective decline.
If we take a look at the BTC Volatility Index chart, we can see it approaching the lows again. And always, when BTC Volatility comes to the lows, we can expect some big action and huge volatility, especially if this is a wave 5 of a bigger ending diagonal.
So, considering that BTCUSD can be finishing wave 5 and BTC Volatility Index coming to the lows, we should be aware of a bigger corrective decline soon, ideally somewhere here at the end of August and beginning of September.
If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea.
Be humble and trade smart!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Who drive BTC Price vs. Value? First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you!
There are two group of people in the crypto space: long-term investors and short-term speculators. One often overlooked fact is while short-term speculators dominate the actively daily traded BTC, long-term investors actually dominate the entire BTC holding. Understanding how these two groups contribute to BTC value and price separately is crucial in profiting in the long run.
“Never invest in a business you cannot understand.” – Warren Buffett
Are you a long-term investor or a short-term speculator? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
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🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain on-chain data analysis!
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That TD indicator doe!I should have posted this the moment I drew it which was when the TD sequential indicator printed a 9, indicating/suggesting a reversal, in combination with the trend lines and the bearish candles, it was obvious, but I didn't make the trade so i didn't publish this look. TD often ignores 9's and will go against you, but it is still right much of the time and I use it only in combination with other data. Anyway, I am showing this for the technical beauty of it, shame on me for being busy in the stock market to trade this setup. Props to those who did, let me know how much you made in the comments section. Thanks for viewing.
THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE, I AM NOT AN ADVISOR, I AM A SPECULATOR, TRY AND DONT GET REKT K
Why not to trade/scalp with a high leverage?Why not to trade with a high leverage?
We, scalpers, usually trade with leverage, because our gain from an individual trade is small but only accumulates in a period of time if we re-invest after each trade.
Because of our tendency/ human nature we tend to focus on profits but in the long term it is our losses who determine our success.
Our losses are mainly through stoplosses or liquidations. From this point on, I would like to give examples from my trading strategy.
I always recommend in my published ideas, not to trade with a high leverage.
Here is a basic calculation to show you why I recommend low leverage trading.
In my Trades, the main target is what I call "exit2" which is around 1% change in the direction that we wished for. Sometimes "shit happens" and we crash the stoploss (I will use 2% change as an example).
How many succesful Trades (%1) do we have to manage to overcome a loss by a stoploss (2%)?
That is really different by each leverage.
-By 3x leverage you have to trade around 2.22 times to overcome the loss of a stoploss.
-By 5x leverage you have to trade around 2.37 times to overcome the loss of a stoploss.
-By 10x leverage you have to trade around 2.485 times to overcome the loss of a stoploss.
-By 15x leverage you have to trade around 2.62 times to overcome the loss of a stoploss.
-By 20x leverage you have to trade around 2.87 times to overcome the loss of a stoploss.
-By 25x leverage you have to trade around 3.15 times to overcome the loss of a stoploss.
As you can see, with an increasing amount of leverage you have to be more successful to even break even.
I would say it is Ok to scalp with a leverage of max. 10x, but I would definitely recommend not to scalp/ trade with a leverage higher than that.
Bitcoin - The Ugly Truth About Crypto and Unregulated MarketsFirst, I would like to say that I am a believer in Bitcoin. A quick summary of my belief, Bitcoin is like the English language. Not perfect and has many flaws, and I'm sure anyone can create a better language if given enough time, but Bitcoin is the language everyone in Crypto talks and it will be hard to dethrone the king. Bitcoin is enough, even if the cost to transfer it goes to $100+, it still serves the main purpose of crypto which is the ability to transfer medium/large sums of money without borders or regulation to anyone that accepts Bitcoin. No one can tell you no. It is not ideal for small purchases such as coffee, but fiat is all anyone needs for small purchases and there is absolutely no point for small shops to accept crypto currency as a form of payment. Sorry BCH believers, you have a better coin, a better language, but it's not enough reason to switch.
However, it's the Bitcoin / Crypto markets that are corrupt. They are not regulated, which many see as a good thing, but it is absolutely the worst thing that can happen to crypto. Unregulated exchanges mean unlimited supply of Bitcoin. Exchanges, depending on their jurisdiction, are allowed to sell Bitcoin they don't even have. For American and other common wealth country based exchanges, this is still fraud and illegal, but in countries like Hong Kong and small safe haven islands, it's completely legal and no one can do anything about it.
On top of that, exchanges like Bitmex don't even claim to have Bitcoin, they let people buy and sell contracts on their exchange that are not backed by Bitcoin. Future contracts are the same, they are not settled in Bitcoin, they are settled in fiat.
So with an unlimited supply of Bitcoin on the market, every exchange in a safe haven jurisdiction is like the federal reserve in America, they can print paper Bitcoin whenever they want and on one knows how much fake un-backed Bitcoin is being traded.
Something to take into consideration when trading Bitcoin and betting long term on the price.
Update - My post April 2, 2020, "Bitcoin & Big Oil" Update - My post April 2, 2020, "Bitcoin & Big Oil" . First point of interest - Using MACD of USOIL (WTI) point before precipitous decline. See what happened when bitcoin closed month end above $365 NOV 2015 and thereafter. Notice in each case c.55% drop before rise. Bitcoin has yet to close out month above $9084.7. Second point of interest - Monthly Dollar Index if close below 98.82 (Mid point of volatility Mar 2020) see what happened to SPX when closed below 95.48 (Mid point of volatility Aug 2015) March 2016. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Moving AveragesThe best (most interactive) MA/EMA's can be great confluence factors for picking high R areas of interest for taking or exiting positions. When more than one MA occupies a specific price point/zone (particularly higher MA's), there is a lot more liquidity due to the congruence of different strategy traders and bots taking positions around both (or more) of the MA's.
If you can read em, you can trade em.
*Also wtf is with this shitty triangle haha thing is taking so fucken long to resolve
Bitcoin is like the early internet"Bitcoin is like the early internet" we hear that sentence over and over.
The convenient thing is the internet and crypto, as we know them, both appeared the same year, in 1983.
So how about a simple side by side comparison?
* Note I have strongly overstated crypto adoption to make it visible.
As you can see, adoption wise, crypto is indeed like the early internet.
But the fact that is has been like the early internet for now almost 40 years, means crypto investors should not get their hopes up too much about it getting adopted.
Their best bet is that new buyers that think the price will go up show and buy their bags.
Not sure who will do that, now that the whole planet has heard about crypto & Bitcoin in particular.
Aliens maybe? Who knows.
I suggest creating a whole new type of crypto, call it etrash, and leave it there.
Would be the perfect end for this joke of a ride.
C'mon ... 40 years... Claiming claming crypto is as important as the internet or can ever be half as successful... Some people can't stop dreaming...
40 years and only use case has been being untraceable & buying drugs and kiddie porn. Crypto enthusiasts are nuts.
They should wake up from their dream and start doing something useful with their lives.
BTCUSD – Let's see first sellers how much power they still haveWelcome to our Academy. We’re here to help you achieve what you have been looking for.
Use our free analysis where you have everything you need for potencial trade ideas and profit.
BTCUSD – Let's see first sellers how much power they still have
Trend: Buy/ Neutral
At the moment: Sell/ Neutral
Price now: 8642.55
Support/Resistance:
R2: 10307.74
R1: 9106.68
S1: 8001.05
S2: 7593.96
S3: 7266.36
S4: 6555.78
S5: 5771.10
Price action:
For this potencial trade idea it is better to wait for more data then we have now. Bitcoin price is stucked between overall bullish perioud and recently sell, which presents more neutral chart then potencial trade idea for now.
Price broke the Channel and bounced from it. If the price will break 9106.68 resistance level and hold above, then we can follow next bullish target to 10307.74 level.
If the price will go down below Bitcoin channel, then we have to see Bearish retracement at deeper buyers support. First Bitcoin buyers support is at 7593.96 level and second at 7266.36 level. If buyers will not show performance at these levels, then sellers has open era to first target at 6555.78 and second target at 5771.10 level.
BTCUSD Potencial trade idea:
Bulls targets:
T1: 8200
T2: 9106.68
T3: 10307.74
Bears targets:
T1: 6555.78
T2: 5771.10
NOTE – We are trading BTCUSD via the preferred trading setups by EliteFxAcademy
Disclaimer: Martin’s views on the Chart analysis is ment as a trading advice for education terms; Education terms include: trading consistency to everyone who is reading this blog; for every advance student and for every Elite student who is using this analysis for managing his equity by Elite strategy and custom indicator. This analysis is understandable and transparent for all Elite students. This is a free content which is based from Academy in term of transparency to support and following progress to everyone. We know that there is always possible way that market can pull you out even when you follow our analysis blog and advice for a trade. We don’t publish where you have to have your risk management – Stop Loss, because, it would not be fair to Elite members, who learned this techniques in our Elite course.
Keywords:
Elite strategy, Custom Indicator, Fundamental Analysis , Tehnical analysis, Price action, Advanced strategies, Trading Education
Good trading!
Elitefxacademy
EW Analysis: Crypto Is Selling-Off; Btc At 6-7K Sup. ZoneHello traders!
Today we will talk about cryptocurrencies and their current decline.
Let's start with Bitcoin against the ALTs dominance. BTC was losing its dominance against the ALTs since the beginning of September that can be clearly seen in the BTC.D/OTHER.S chart, but as you can see a decline was corrective only in three waves a-b-c, ideally in wave 4, which means that BTC Dominance could be back in the game for wave 5 soon, especially if we consider that strong a=c and base channel resistance line support area.
Due to a lost of BTC dominance, BTCUSD just hit new lows again compared to some other ALTs like NEOUSD and ZRXUSD, which were stronger in the last couple of weeks. However, we still see a corrective W-X-Y structure from the highs on Bitcoin and it's still trading around important 61,8% Fibonacci area, so we would not be surprised if we will see a bounce soon, maybe already here around 7000-6000 support area, especially if we take a look on NEO and ZRX.
In the Crypto market we always have to respect correlations. And what we see is that both, NEO and ZRX can be unfolding pretty clear bullish setup here with a strong five-wave rally away from the lows followed by a three-wave a-b-c corrective pullback that can stop right here around important 61,8% Fibonacci support area and channel support line.
Well, what we want to point out is despite that current sell-off in the Crypto market, we still see limited downside with a strong support levels and potential bullish reversals. Also, if we are right and BTC dominance comes back, then BTC could be the strongest cryptocurrency again, which means that ALTs against the BTC pairs (XXX/BTC) may continue even lower.
This is just how we currently see the Crypto market; Crypto market can see a bounce and a recovery sagain, but only against the USD, while XXX/BTC will stay mostly bearish or sideways.
If you like what we do, please like and share.
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Algorithm Builer CRYPTO - XBTUSD - Review Oct 20th, 2019Hello traders
I. Daily tutorial publishing challenge officially begins
Starting today, I'll be publishing every night what were the setups given by the Algorithm Builder CRYPTO
II. Why a 5-minutes chart?
The indicator won't give more than 3/5 trades per day even. This is not a scalping trading method, it's intraday and based on smoothed indicators for entering in a strong trend only.
Those are the most secure trades possible because:
- the Algo Builder waits for a strong confirmation and will avoid the fakeouts
- the 5 minute allows to enter very early. This point is crucial.
We made it so that to enter early but with a minimum of security.
III. Signal of the day
1. We had a first LONG position invalidated with a small loss.
The signal was given against the leading trend (red background/green signal) and in front of multi timeframes resistances.
I always wait for a pullback near the EMA 15/20 to be invalidated with a minimal loss. I made the trading method so that to be invalidated with a minimal loss
2. The second trade was fabulous !!!
Signal given, in front of resistances so not easy but a pullback near the EMA 15/20 was mandatory. It even gave a better entry than the signal on the chart - allowing to enter 50 USD lower for that LONG.
Those resistance lines are my take profits zones. Then, the Algorithm Builder CRYPTO users should take the first take-profit at the first resistance (here the daily SMA(7)) for a 150 USD move upwards.
The second take-profit was at the second big resistance - namely the Daily SMA(20).
I generally let a bit of money on the table from there, as the stop-loss is already trailed by the indicator automatically. I do it, in case, there would be another upwards move that I could catch, and for free.
For free because, the stop-loss is already moved to the TP1 level at that point, and I can't lose anymore on that particular trade setup.
Total trade distance: 261 USD
All the best,
Dave