The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IPart I
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
Breakout
SWING TUTORIAL - DIVISLABWatch how the stock was on a continuous Lower Low Patter and formed a Lower Low Trendline.
Simultaneously, there was also a formation of Convergence Divergence indicating an upward move.
Stock also broke out of the trendline with a strong green candle.
While the MACD Cross indicated a good entry after the Convergence Divergence, the breakout from the Trendline later indicated a confirmation for a move upward.
Coincidently, the stock also made a new Support zone at 3299 after a strong breakout from trendline.
Another MACD cross has also successfully happened in the last few weeks.
Do you think the stock can reach its All Time High again?
Give your comments in the Comments Section below:
SPY Fibonacci Price Theory And BreakOut BarsThis instructional video teaches you the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory in conjunction with Breakout Bars and how price is the ultimate indicator.
Throughout this video, I try to provide instruction on key elements related to the Fibonacci Price Theory (Unique & Standout Highs/Lows). Additionally, I've also included Breakout Bars and Fibonacci Price Retracement concepts.
What I really hope you learn from this video is to see price as the true ultimate indicator for your trading decisions. Using technical analysis techniques is fine, but use price as the key element when trying to confirm or reject your trading ideas.
I hope this helps you understand that price, action, and reaction through trends, peaks, and troughs are the most important components of the chart. Everything else is peripheral.
Top 3 Intraday Trading StrategiesTo get success in intraday trading, requires dedication, hard work, patience, quick wit, and immense knowledge. Successful day trading involves 10% execution and 90% patience.
To gain expertise in day trading and honing trading skills, it takes a fair amount of time. There are a number of Best Intraday trading strategies available for trading, but the success or failure of the strategy completely depends on the market. Maybe one strategy works in today’s market condition but may not work according to the next day’s market condition. Not only, does the movement of the market, but the intraday trading strategy also depends on the trading styles of the trader. It also varies at different times of the day, depending upon how the market is behaving.
Here, in this post, you will find Effective Day Trading Strategies, which you can use for intraday trading.
Intraday Trading Strategy :
1. News Based : News-based trading is the most traditional form of day trading. This type of trader doesn’t focus on the stock price and volume charts, they wait for information that will drive the prices.
The information may come in the form of a company announcement about earnings or new products; a general economic announcement about interest rates or unemployment; or just a lot of rumors about what may or may not be happening in a given industry.
Traders who do good with news-based trading , usually have some understanding and knowledge of the markets. These types of traders are not expert analysts or fundamental researchers, but they have enough knowledge about what kind of news would be in-favor or what would be taken poorly by marketers. They also pay attention to a few different news sources and also whenever they find the right opportunity, they place the order at the right time.
The downside of news trading is that there may be few and far good events; more often, the hype is already built into the price by the time you watch it. Many news traders turn to the scalp while they wait for something to create a little excitement.
Before you start news-based day trading, one thing you should keep in mind is that, this type of trading strategy is very risky as compared to other strategies. It also gives high returns on investment within a day.
2. Gap + B.B. (S20,2): This strategy is useful when the stock/ Index opens Gap Up or Gap Down.
After the gap, the stock shows a potential reversal sign, which can observe by the place of a candlestick or by a heavy volume event. You can fade the action and go in the opposite direction of the gap with a profit target at the start of the gap.
Rules:
Entry between 9:30 to 10:00.
Exit at stop-loss or at 3:25.
Bollinger band strategy is 20,2
30- minute time frame is required.
Big Profits and Small losses.
No need to trade every day.
Helps to stay away from the Sideway market.
Example for Buy Trade:
In this strategy, the stock should be open with Gap up or Gap down.
The First 30-minute candle should be untouched from the lower band.
As you can see in the above image, the first candle opens with a gap down and it is below the lower band.
The high of 1st candle is also untouched by the lower band.
Go for buy trade when the high of 1st 30-minute candle is a break.
Stop-loss = low of the 1st candle.
Example for Sell Trade:
The stock opens with a gap up and the 1st candle’s low is not touched with the upper Bollinger band.
As the low of the first candle is broken, enter in to sell trade.
Put the stop loss at the high of the first candle.
Note: This strategy gives best result for Nifty and Bank Nifty.
3. Morning ORB: The early morning range breakouts are also known as opening range breakouts. It is like bread-butter for many trades. The trading opening range takes skill and practice until you can turn a profit.
The early morning range breakout help traders to take advantage of the violent action from the flurry of buying and selling orders when the market opens.
Trading Range
The first 20 to 30-minute trading range is suitable for an opening range breakout. While you start trading practice using this strategy, it is recommended to start with a very little amount of capital.
The stock you select for the trade should be within a range, which is smaller than the average daily range of the stock. The upper and lower boundaries of the range can be identified by the high and low of the first 30 or 60 minutes.
Early Morning Range Breakout and Volume
The idea for go short on a break below or going long on a break above resistance is not as easy as you think. First, you need to understand the relationship between volume and price.
Volume and Price must be in harmony. When you short or long a stock, which has happed down or gapped up it must open with heavy volume and then retrace on lighter volume (indicating a lack of buying). Which confirms that sellers/buyers are in control.
Volume Is very important for every type of breakout which confirms the breakout before entry. If the stock price breaks the morning Support/resistance level with low volume, there is a high chance of a false breakout.
The image below explained that high volume during a breakout is likely to push price through key resistance.
In this 15- minute chart, you see that after a break of early morning resistance with high volume, the price starts increasing.
Volume is very tricky so you need to be able to predict the support/resistance levels accurately in order to find out good volume breakouts and set proper profit targets.
Disclaimer: The Intraday Trading Strategies discussed in this post is for education purpose only. We are not responsible for any Profit or Loss you made using these strategies. We hope that you like our blog post on Intraday Trading Strategies.
Breakout-Retest Strategy implemented for shorting GBP/USDThe forex strategy that I use primarily is based on chart patterns and candlestick formations. The process begins with identifying support and resistance levels and determining the overall trend direction from the H4 (4-hour) chart. Subsequently, this analysis is refined on the H1 (1-hour) and M30 (30-minute) charts to gain a more comprehensive view of market dynamics. The reason behind this multi-timeframe approach is to ensure that we have a clear understanding of the critical price levels and trend dynamics. Relying solely on a single timeframe, such as the M30 chart, can be limiting as it may not reveal the full extent of significant resistance areas or the broader trend context.
The central element of this strategy involves marking and monitoring trendline breakouts, while also considering support and resistance levels. We need to start by drawing trendlines on either the H1 or M30 chart, depending on the timeframe that provides the most clarity for the particular trade setup. Once the trendline is established, we need to patiently wait for the price to break this trendline.
It's essential to distinguish between a genuine breakout and a false breakout (fakeout). A price may momentarily break the trendline but then quickly revert within it. To confirm a legitimate breakout, we need to use a specific criterion i.e. the candle that breaks the trendline must close outside of it. Moreover, the subsequent candle should close above the highest price point of the previous candle that initially broke the trendline. This confirmation ensures a stronger indication of a sustained move in the breakout direction. Once a valid trendline breakout is confirmed, a horizontal line is marked at the breakout level (1.27393). This acknowledges the tendency for prices to retest back to the breakout zone before continuing their move in the breakout direction. This retesting phase is an important component of this strategy.
However, it is important to note that a trade is not executed immediately during a retest. Entry signals are confirmed by closely observing the M5 and M1 charts. As the price approaches the breakout zone, it typically forms higher highs and higher lows (in the case of an upward breakout) or lower highs and lower lows (in the case of a downward breakout). To initiate a trade, we need to look for a reversal pattern on the M1/M5 chart. In the trade above, the price has broken the upward trendline at the price level of 1.27393. Then based on the M5 chart, it can be seen that the price is retesting to the breakout level above and forming higher highs and higher lows (HH-HL). We need to wait until the price touches the breakout line and breaks the HH-HL pattern by forming a lower high. At 1.27309, price made a high lower than the previous high after retesting and touching the breakout level. This indicates a reversal and a confirmation for entry. The MACD indicator with 12-26-9 settings is used to mark the highs and lows more accurately in the M5 chart. The green histogram bars indicate bullish momentum and red histogram bars indicate bearish momentum. This is an important indicator for this strategy as marking the highs and lows accurately is crucial to identify the reversal.
The trade was entered at 1.27236 upon confirmation of the LH and reversal in M5 chart (after touching the breakout level):
In this strategy, a crucial aspect is the use of a 1 to 1 reward-to-risk ratio, and it typically involves aiming for a take profit (TP) and stop loss (SL) of 50 pips each. These TP and SL levels are established with careful consideration of the support and resistance zones identified during the initial analysis in higher timeframes. The importance of these zones lies in their ability to impact trade placement. For instance, when opening a buy trade, if there's a significant resistance level above, whether identified on the H4, H1, or M30 timeframe charts, it's essential to set the TP below that resistance level. This approach is taken because price movements often encounter rejection at such resistance levels, making it crucial to secure profits before reaching that level. By following this TP and SL levels, the trade hit TP with a profit of 50 pips.
🌟 Forex Trading Tutorial: Trading a Fake Breakout✅🔍 Understanding Fake Breakouts:
🔸Spotting the Fake Breakout: In the chart, as highlighted, a green candle indicates a reversal above a certain level, signifying a fake breakout. This is where the market seems to break a support or resistance level but quickly reverses direction, invalidating the breakout.
🔸Qualities of the Confirming Candle: The candle that signals a fake breakout shouldn't be a weak one. It must clearly demonstrate that the breakout was fake, usually with a strong close in the opposite direction of the initial breakout.
📊 Trading Strategy for a Fake Breakout:
1. Position Entry: You can open a position based on these candles, capitalizing on the market's misdirection.
2. Stop Loss: Set the stop loss just below the low of the confirming candle. This placement limits your potential loss if the market moves against your position.
3. Target and Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for a risk-reward ratio of 2:1 to 3:1. This means for every unit of risk taken, you expect to gain two to three units in reward. For instance, if your stop loss represents a potential loss of 50 pips, set your target at 100 to 150 pips.
💡 Why It Works: This strategy works because fake breakouts often trap traders in the wrong direction. When the market swiftly reverses, it can lead to a strong move in the opposite direction as traders rush to adjust their positions.
📚 Educational Note: It’s crucial to practice this strategy in a demo account or with a small position size initially. Forex trading carries risks, and understanding market dynamics is key to successful trading.
🔑 Remember: Forex trading requires careful analysis, patience, and risk management. Always do your homework and trade responsibly! 🌍📚
#tradecitypro #forex #NZDUSD #breakout #fake_breakout
Buy the Breakout✅ Or Have a Hard time Buying Dips❌Hello Traders! 👋
Excited to bring you another insightful post on Tradingview, highlighting a smarter approach to trading cryptocurrencies. This time, we're focusing on the effectiveness of 'Buying the Breakout' ✅ over the uncertainty of 'Buying the Dip' ❌.
🔑 Strategic Analysis:
1️⃣ Bitcoin (BTC): We begin with Bitcoin, showcasing how choosing breakout points over dips can provide more reliable and timely entry points.
2️⃣ Matic (MATIC): Next, we look at Matic, illustrating how its breakout points, when combined with simple technical analysis, offers a clear strategy for market entry.
3️⃣ Fantom (FTM): Lastly, we explore Fantom, a prime example of how a classic crypto breakout strategy can outperform dip-buying, leading to more significant gains.
🧠 Trading Psychology:
It's crucial to understand the psychological aspect. Consistently buying dips may lead to missing breakout opportunities, potentially resulting in shorting at the wrong moment... or endlessly like Borat at the end of this post
💡 Smart Profit-Taking:
Remember, taking profits partially is key. Secure your gains and keep some positions open for further potential growth, balancing risk and reward effectively. I personally usually set 4 targets for spot at 25% each. The first 2 get me some profit and the last 25% is for my retirement; so i never touch that 25%, ever.
🚦 Managing Fake Breakouts:
A vital part of trading breakouts is dealing with the possibility of a fake breakout. Here's where your skills truly shine. By having a calculated exit strategy, you can minimize risks even if the breakout turns out to be false. This approach ensures that your trading decisions are not only proactive but also protective of your capital.
This post is crafted to enhance your understanding and application of these strategies, whether you're a veteran trader or new to the game. 📚 It's all about making informed, strategic decisions in the dynamic world of crypto trading.
🌟 When it comes to crypto, it all starts with the fundamentals: selecting assets with solid backing, innovative teams, and a clear, strategic plan. This foundational step ensures that you're investing in cryptocurrencies that not only have potential for technical breakouts but also possess the intrinsic value and growth prospects backed by strong fundamentals.
🔍Join me in this journey as we continue to explore and attempt to conquer the markets. Your thoughts, experiences, and insights are always welcome in the comments section below. Let's keep pushing the boundaries of what we can achieve together in trading! Just remember that Trading should be fun thus we must play with funds we can afford to sacrifice.
❌❌❌Don't be like Borat:
❌❌❌
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR ✅
Part 1 - A Beginner's Guide to Breakdown TheoryThe Concept Of Supply & Demand
The price movement of the security is the result of demand(buyers) & supply(sellers):
If the supply is more than the demand, there are more sellers than buyers than sellers, which results in a price fall.
If the demand is more than the supply, there are more buyers than sellers, which results in a price surge.
If the demand equals supply, price consolidates in the range.
Demands = supply
This is an equilibrium area in which demand and supply are equal. The price forms the value area, where both buyers and sellers are equally satisfied with the current price movement. Neither buyer is looking for a price surge nor the bear is waiting for the plunge, at least for some time. The supply and demand are a deadlock or clueless about the upcoming dominance.
Let's take an example to understand these supply and demand conditions:
- The provided chart of TESLA shows a real-time example of the supply and demand effect on the price. In the beginning, Demand pressure was more than Supply pressure, and The stock started rising as buyers outnumbered sellers. As the stock price rose, some buyers started losing interest in purchasing more shares due to the high price. Eventually, the demand and supply pressures reached equilibrium.
- At this point, both buyers and sellers were satisfied with the price movement, as the demand matched the available supply. At high prices, sellers began to take advantage of the situation by selling their stock, leading to a decrease in price. The supply of stock exceeded the demand, and buyers were unable to respond with further bullish moves.
Elements Of The Breakdown Theory:
(1) Value Area:
As the name implies, the value area is the price zone where most trading activities happen. In the value area, buyers and sellers are satisfied and agree with the current price movement. Purchasers are Neither interested in the further price surge nor do sellers agree to a decline in the price during the equilibrium period.
Value area includes two boundaries:
Upper boundary: It represents the supply pressure, which stops the security of the price rise. If the stock crosses down the upper band with volume, the price may be ready for a bearish move. The price signals a weak structure if it fails to trade above the upper band for a long time. This structure is a bearish move.
Lower boundary: It illustrates the demand pressure, which stops the security of the price fall. If the stock crosses up the upper band with volume, the price may be ready for a bullish move. The price signals a strong structure if it fails to trade above the lower band for a long time. This structure is a bullish move.
(2) Excess:
The excess price can be identified above the upper band and below the lower band. It shows a clear rejection of a certain price level and it reacts as support and resistance levels. It indicates the intuition of long-term traders.
The price spends minimal time outside the value area. It tends to reverse its direction and move back inside. It can create an opportunity for traders to sell above and buy below the value area.
For example, the price falls below the lower band but then reverses the movement. Traders can take advantage of this by buying the security with a tight stop loss, aiming for targets up to the upper band or potentially higher.
- The provided chart depicts the daily timeframe of SHREECEM stock from May 1999 to July 2001 . During this period, SHREECEM experienced four excess at the upper boundary and three at the lower boundary of the value area. At 3rd excess of the lower boundary, buyers couldn't respond by a strong bullish move, and sellers rule the movement by supply pressure.
How to draw value area/ Equilibrium?
Step 1 : Obtain a price chart of the tradable instruments(stock, commodity or forex, etc.) with a suitable time frame. As per my observation, daily and, or lower is better.
Step 2 : Look for an area on the price chart where the price is moving within a specific range.
Step 3 : Mark the trading area with the highest trading activity with good volume, which will be marked as a value area.
Step 4 : Mark the area with relatively low trading activities where the price couldn't stay for too long at a certain level, which will be marked as excess.
Step 5: Clearly separate the value area from the excess price areas to visually distinguish between the two.
Step 6 : Observe the repetitive up and down movements within the value area.
Step 7 : Extend value - boundaries rightward on the chart. Observe how price reacts near boundaries for future insights.
Example 1:
- AAPL has formed five price excesses, two above the upper and two below the lower boundary. After selecting the chart, I separated the excess from the price zone.
- Generally, We need to find a price range where most prices touch the upper and lower boundaries. Any prices above the upper boundary or below the lower boundary are considered excess.
Example 2:
- In another Apple chart, the price has formed three excesses. The first excess happened when bulls couldn't overcome the volume of sellers and ended up losing momentum. The second excess occurred when sellers were unable to break below the lower band and lost their strength. At the third excess, AAPL couldn't generate bullish volume, and sellers dominated the selling.
Finally, the price fell to the lower boundary, and bulls responded with a massive volume. Demand exceeded supply, and sellers were outnumbered.
Example 3:
- In the hourly timeframe chart of AMZN, the stock was experiencing a downward trend and entered a consolidation phase. Two excesses were observed, one at the upper boundary and the other at the lower boundary.
- At the second excess, bulls responded with a sharp decline, but they were unable to maintain their momentum above the upper band. This lack of sustainability in their upward move increased the confidence of sellers, leading them to drive the price down for a longer duration. Sellers increased the supply and pushed the price of AMZN down with a gap and strong volume.
Example 4:
- It is the EURUSD 4-hour timeframe chart. EURUSD has more than nine price excesses, with five above the upper boundary and four below the lower boundary. The 5th excess marked the most significant response from buyers, countered by sellers. Subsequently, the length of the excesses decreased.
- At the 9th excess, the buyers' initiative to push the price above the upper boundary couldn't be sustained, as the sellers' trading volume exceeded that of the buyers.
In the next part, we will delve into the other components in more detail.
Creating an article that caters to both beginners and experts can be quite challenging and time-consuming. However, if you would like the next part to be available sooner, please show your support by hitting the like button. Your encouragement will motivate me to continue writing and sharing valuable insights.
Thank you for taking the time to read!
How to fade breakouts professionally from my 30 years experienceIn this detailed education video i show how i mainly make a living as a protrader. This is from fading breakouts of chart patterns. I show three examples of this in the past week from the nasdaq and talk about confirmation bias. I also show what its like drawing lines and patterns daily, win/ loss ratios as well as some thoughts of where the nasdaq might go in the next few weeks.
Indicator idea " USX "USX is the average of NAS100 , SPX500 and US30 (all from BLACKBULL data provider).
( average of the 3 Open = O ),
( average of the 3 High = H),
( average of the 3 Low = L),
( average of the 3 Close = C),
Plotted as candles using thoses OHLC, making a chart representing the average price action of indexes.
It is preferable to use on 15m TF (read the ORB part below).
Usage and inputs :
- An important part is the ORB box (Opening Range Breakout) sometime reffered as OPR (Opening Price Range).
This plot a box based on market opening candle (NY time, 15m) high & low.
This box will be colored green if close is above the half value of the box and red if below.
A basic strategy for Stocks and Indexes traders is to wait after open that the price break that 9h30 to 9h45 range an enter accordingly for a scalp in the dominant direction.
( Doesn't work everytime, even less for crypto, but i've been using this tool on each separate index for some time and let me tell you, at NY open the world is always somehow correlated to what happen in Wall Street. )
- Additionnal sma21,55,89 and AMA (the average of the 3 sma).
Optionnal trend confirmation based on the position of close relative to the 3 sma (simultanously above or below) and colored background assiociated.
- The possibility to use VERY lengthy (tweakable) RSI rather than standard average $ values but it's not very effective as the candles look awful (on any big timeframes)...
- In the input you can adjust the % of each of the 3 index in the total from 0% to 100%, so you can, for exemple put NASDAQ % IN INDEX more important than S&P % and DOWJONES even lower (as Crypto-currencies are generally more related to Tech sector).
That's it for now,
Don't hesitate to ask question, even if I've already said too much...
PS: That only an idea, yes the indicator is created and functionnal. Maybe i'll publish it, probably free + open source as i anyway explained everything ;)
Peace, may the profit be with you all
The Power of Candlestick Encapsulation in Trading: Utilizing theTrading is a captivating and intricate field that demands a profound understanding of financial markets, investment strategies, and technical analysis. Among the many techniques employed by traders, candlestick encapsulation is one that can prove to be particularly powerful. In this article, we will explore the concept of candlestick encapsulation and how one can harness the 50% of the first candle's length as a potential support or resistance level.
What Is Candlestick Encapsulation?
Candlestick encapsulation, also known as an "inside bar," is a price pattern that occurs when a subsequent candle develops within the boundaries of the preceding candle. In other words, the price range of the second candle is entirely contained within the range of the first candle. This pattern can appear on any time frame, from daily candles to one-minute candles, and is often used by traders to identify potential turning points in the markets.
How to Identify Candlestick Encapsulation?
To identify candlestick encapsulation, follow these steps:
* Examine the First Candle: Begin by observing the most recent candle on your price chart. This will be the "mother candle."
* Take a Look at the Next Candle: Next, examine the candle that follows the mother candle. This candle should have a price range that is completely contained within the range of the mother candle.
* Confirm the Pattern: To confirm candlestick encapsulation, the second candle must close within the range of the mother candle.
Using the 50% Level as Support or Resistance
Now that we understand what candlestick encapsulation is, let's explore how to leverage the 50% of the first candle's length as a potential support or resistance level.
* Calculate the Length of the First Candle: Measure the length of the mother candle from its high to its low.
* Calculate 50% of the Length: Now, calculate exactly 50% of this length. You can do this by adding the high and low of the mother candle and dividing by two.
* Draw the Horizontal Line: Plot a horizontal line on your price chart at the level you calculated as 50% of the mother candle's length.
* Observe Price Behavior: This horizontal line represents a potential support level if prices move below it or a resistance level if prices stay above it. Observe how prices react when they reach this level.
Interpretation and Strategy
The use of the 50% level of the mother candle's length as support or resistance can be applied in various trading strategies. Here are some important considerations:
* Breakout Strategy: If prices break above the 50% level, there may be a potential bullish breakout. In this case, traders may look for buying opportunities.
* Pullback Strategy: If prices return to the 50% level after a breakout, this could be an opportunity to enter positions in the direction of the prevailing trend.
* Stop Loss and Take Profit: Traders can use the 50% level as a reference point to place stop-loss or take-profit orders.
Conclusion
Candlestick encapsulation is a technical analysis technique that can provide valuable insights into potential turning points in financial markets. By using the 50% level of the mother candle's length as support or resistance, traders can add another tool to their trading toolkit for making informed trading decisions. However, it is important to remember that no technique is foolproof, and trading always involves a degree of risk. Therefore, it is advisable to combine this technique with careful risk management and a solid understanding of financial markets.
Advanced Analysis Of SPX500 Using Fibonacci, Channels, & MoreTo continue to expand your learning experiences and to see what I do in the background (trying to figure out advanced price theory and Fibonacci secrets), I created this video to share some of my work.
The idea is for you to watch and learn - trying to pick out what you see as valuable and possibly sparking some insights into advanced Technical Analysis concepts.
Fibonacci Price Theory is the basis for almost all of my work. But price channels, price action, cross-market analysis, and multi-timeframe analysis are all part of what I use to determine probable outcomes - and I'm still wrong sometimes.
I see trading/investing is "the attempt to use your best judgment to move probability onto your side related to trade actions." After you have reasonably attempted to use your best abilities to determine the "smart trade", the next stage is determining allocation (how much you want to trade).
Remember, the easiest way to accomplish this is to focus on your RISK levels. If you have a 3% risk on a trade, figure that risk level out as real dollars - then as yourself if you are comfortable risking that amount of money on the trade.
Again, this may be a bit more advanced than you are ready for, but I'm trying to build on the basics of trend channels, basic Fibonacci Price Theory, and more. The deeper you get, the deeper it goes.
Visit my profile to see all my videos and learn how I attempt to identify future price trends (I read the charts and see the data). Plus, I pay attention to historical price trends and cycles.
How you enjoy.
Learn To Trade Breakout/Flags More Efficiently - Part IIn my first tutorial, I tried to show how price channels can be used to identify and validate strong trade setups. Additionally, I attempted to show you how to identify better trade setups from what I consider invalid trade setups.
Understanding and maintaining at least a 2:1 Reward-to-risk factor for any trade you consider taking is essential. Secondly, it is essential to understand and use proper allocation levels for trades.
The simple way to understand allocation levels is to focus on the RISK amount. If your trade risks $5 per share and you can't afford to risk $500 on this trade, then you should NOT attempt to trade 100 shares of this stock.
Set your risk level based on how much you intend to risk for the trade - nothing more.
If you can only risk $250, then you would only trade 50 shares.
If you can only risk $125, then you would only trade 25 shares.
Learning to find and identify proper trade setups on Daily and Weekly charts is critical for success in the long run. I firmly believe price tells us everything we need to know about a chart, and indicators reflect price.
As you continue to learn some of the techniques I use in various price chart setups, I hope you can refine your techniques to become better traders.
I will likely create a PART II and PART III version of these types of advanced trade setups.
Hope you enjoy.
Trading 101: The benefits of hard closesIntroduction:
In the world of technical analysis, traders are constantly searching for new and innovative methods to gain an edge in the market. One such technique that has gained popularity in recent years is the use of "hard closes." In this idea, we will delve into what hard closes are, why they are considered superior to conventional crossover methods, and the benefits and practical applications of incorporating hard closes into your trading strategy.
Understanding Hard Closes:
A "hard close" is a unique approach to analyzing price movements in financial markets. Unlike traditional moving average crossovers, which rely on the intersection of two moving averages, hard closes focus on the closing price of an asset. In essence, a hard close is an inflexible criterion that triggers a signal when the closing and opening price of an asset meets specific predetermined conditions.
How to Spot Hard Closes:
Let's say we have a level of resistance, and we are waiting for the price to break out so that we can long it, an up candle must open above the level of resistance, as well as close above it (because it also has to be an up candle). Similarly, if we are looking for a support breakout, we need a down candle to open below the level of support and close as a down candle. Hard closes can be used on both horizontal levels and trendlines.
Why Hard Closes Are Better:
Reduced Noise: Hard closes eliminate a significant amount of noise present in conventional crossover methods. By focusing solely on opening and closing prices, they filter out intra-period fluctuations as well as fakeouts and provide a cleaner and more precise signal.
Benefits of Hard Closes:
Risk Management: By reducing false signals, hard closes help traders make more informed decisions. This, in turn, enhances risk management strategies, preventing traders from entering ill-timed trades.
Versatility: Hard closes can be applied to various assets and timeframes as well as different kinds of levels, making them suitable for day traders, swing traders, and long-term investors alike.
Practical Uses of Hard Closes:
Trend Confirmation: Hard closes can be used to confirm the strength and direction of an existing trend. A bullish hard close, for example, can reinforce the conviction of a bullish trend.
Entry and Exit Points: Traders can employ hard closes to identify precise entry and exit points for their trades. This approach minimizes the guesswork involved in trading decisions.
Filtering Signals: Hard closes can be integrated into existing trading strategies to filter out less reliable signals, enhancing the overall effectiveness of the strategy.
In conclusion, hard closes represent a powerful and innovative approach to technical analysis that offers several advantages over conventional crossover methods. Their ability to reduce noise, improve accuracy, and adapt to different trading styles makes them a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit. Whether you are a seasoned professional or a novice trader, consider exploring the potential of hard closes to enhance your trading strategy and gain a competitive edge in the financial markets.
How to trade Fake Breakouts in the range Range trading, characterized by price oscillations within defined support and resistance levels, offers traders a structured approach in sideways markets. However, even within these stable waves, deceptive price movements known as fake breakouts can occur. These false signals can lead traders astray if not properly recognized and managed. In this article, we'll delve into the world of fake breakouts within range trading, equipping you with strategies to identify and navigate these misleading market dynamics.
Understanding Fake Breakouts:
A fake breakout occurs when price seemingly breaches a support or resistance level but quickly reverses back into the established range. These deceptive moves often trigger stop-loss orders and entice traders into taking positions in the direction of the apparent breakout, only to experience a sudden reversal against their trades. Fake breakouts are fueled by market manipulation, emotional trading, or sudden news events.
Here are few examples of fake breakouts in big Time-frames :
Often, this is not enough for entering a position.
Combine this with divergences on RSI or other factors for entry.
Key Characteristics of Fake Breakouts:
Swift Reversal: A true breakout sustains its direction, while a fake breakout swiftly reverses back into the range.
High Volatility: Fake breakouts often coincide with spikes in volatility due to market confusion and emotional reactions.
Trapped Traders: Traders who entered positions based on the fake breakout are "trapped" when the market reverses, leading to potential losses.
Navigating Fake Breakouts:
Confirmation Through Candlesticks: Wait for candlestick confirmation beyond the breakout level. A close above resistance or below support lends greater credibility to the breakout.
Increased Volume: Look for a surge in trading volume accompanying the breakout, indicating genuine market participation.
Use of Indicators: Rely on technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to validate breakout momentum.
Strategies for Trading Fake Breakouts:
False Breakout Reversal: Enter positions in the opposite direction of the fake breakout when price returns to the range, targeting a retracement towards the opposite boundary.
Wait-and-Watch Approach: Allow the breakout to develop and wait for confirmation before entering a trade, avoiding pre-mature positions.
Risk Management When Dealing with Fake Breakouts:
Tight Stop-Loss: Set a tight stop-loss order beyond the breakout point to limit potential losses if the breakout reverses.
Position Sizing: Allocate a smaller portion of your capital to trades involving potential fake breakouts due to the increased risk.
Pros and Cons of Trading Fake Breakouts:
👍 Pros:
Opportunities in Deception: Skilled traders can capitalize on market deception by trading against fake breakouts.
Enhanced Risk Management: Proper identification of fake breakouts allows traders to minimize losses through tight stop-loss orders.
👎 Cons:
Increased Complexity: Identifying fake breakouts requires additional analysis and indicators.
Risk of Mistakes: Mistaking a genuine breakout for a fake one or vice versa can lead to missed opportunities or losses.
The Best Odds within a Consolidated MarketEvery pattern of the market has precise areas where the probabilities can play in the most favorable way for you, if you trust the pattern (until it expires). Of course, we trust patterns... that's what we do: we drink and trust patterns .
This example on the XRPUSDT pair is a good example of this. As a day trader (or a FTT trader), your hope here would be to catch a meaningful impulse, a long movement of the price that could give you profits. If you want that, where would you place your entry?
The basic knowledge tells about "zones", but all zones are not equally safe and important in every pattern.
For example, we know that the average zone in a consolidated market (the midrange between its resistance and support) is important... but is it safe? Let's think about it:
By definition, an established market that goes sideways is bouncing between its resistance and support zones. It also tends to bounce against the midrange, of course (or, at least, it tends to struggle in that place); but normally you would expect the price to break the middle of the channel in order to reach its margins. Why? Because that's the very nature of the pattern! Duh!
If the price surpass the midrange, the pattern stays vigorous, healthy and reliable. But what happens if the price exceeds markedly the channel's resistance or support? That would be an apparent or definitive breakout of such pattern... its closure: There's no trustable pattern anymore and you must be careful because your previous analysis now belongs to the past.
This reflection is meant to warn you about one of the common mistakes we commit –perhaps because of the nature (a fault?) of our system or because of our unwise decisions–: Not waiting for the price to come up to the best spot for our entry. Not being selective enough when deciding the best settings of the market.
In my series about trading psychology I expect to delve more into this attitude of not caring too much about our best chances, which is a way of not protecting our capital –although there is also a problem in caring too much , to the point of inertia–. But, for now, let's just reflect about the significant disadvantage of placing our bets into forecasts that objectively lack the best odds within a known pattern! Surely those are not the most educated bets we are capable of... and a profitable trader is person who makes educated bets.
How To Trade Double Bottom Pattern?
✅In the world of forex trading, understanding patterns and trends can make all the difference between profit and loss. One popular pattern that traders often look out for is the double bottom, also known as the "W" pattern.
✅The double bottom pattern occurs when the price of a currency pair reaches a low point, bounces back up, dips again to the same level, and then bounces back up again, creating a "W" shape. Essentially, the market has twice failed to break through the support level, indicating a potential reversal to the upside.
✅This pattern is often seen as a bullish indicator, as it suggests that buyers are stepping in and pushing the price up. It is important to note, however, that the second bounce should not dip below the first one, as this could indicate a continuation of the bearish trend.
✅So, how can traders take advantage of the double bottom pattern? One strategy is to enter a long position once the price breaks out above the resistance level created by the two bounces. This breakout confirms the reversal and can signal a potential uptrend.
✅It is also important to combine the double bottom pattern with other technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), to confirm the potential reversal.
✅However, as with any trading pattern, it is important to approach the double bottom with caution and to always have a solid risk management strategy in place. Traders should also be aware of potential false signals and market noise that could obscure the true trend.
✅In summary, the double bottom pattern can be a useful tool for forex traders looking to identify potential reversals and enter profitable trades. By combining it with other technical indicators and practicing proper risk management, traders can improve their chances of success in the ever-changing and unpredictable world of forex trading.
I hope this post was helpful to some of our beginner traders😊
Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
The Power of Volume: Understanding Volume Analysis in TradingIn the dynamic world of financial markets, successful traders know that understanding volume analysis is crucial for making informed trading decisions. Volume, the number of shares or contracts traded during a given period, provides valuable insights into market dynamics and helps identify potential trends, reversals, and the strength of price movements. In this Educational article, we will explore the power of volume and its significance in trading, uncovering the key principles of volume analysis, practical strategies for incorporating it into your trading toolkit.
📊 The Basics of Volume Analysis 📊
Volume analysis is the study of trading activity represented by the volume of shares or contracts traded within a specified time frame. By analyzing volume alongside price movements, traders gain insights into market sentiment, liquidity, and the overall strength of a trend. Here are some fundamental concepts to consider:
Volume and Price Relationship: Volume often accompanies significant price moves. When volume surges during an uptrend or downtrend, it suggests increased participation and conviction from market participants. Conversely, low volume during consolidations or indecisive periods can indicate a lack of interest or involvement.
Volume Patterns: Patterns in volume can reveal important clues about market dynamics. For example, a gradual increase in volume during an uptrend may suggest a healthy and sustainable trend, while a sudden spike in volume near key support or resistance levels could signal potential reversals.
📊 Analyzing Volume in Different Market Scenarios 📊
Volume analysis can be applied across various market scenarios to gain insights into the underlying dynamics. Here are a few examples:
Breakouts: When a stock or asset price breaks out of a key resistance level with high volume, it suggests strong buying interest and potential continuation of the uptrend.
Reversals: A significant increase in volume accompanied by a sharp price reversal may indicate a trend exhaustion and potential reversal. Volume analysis helps validate potential reversal signals.
Divergence: When the price is moving in one direction while volume is moving in the opposite direction, it can indicate a weakening trend. Divergences between volume and price can provide valuable early signals of trend reversals.
Example: FINPIPE _ breakout with huge volume & reversal candle at retest (at support) of breakout with huge volume
📊 Integrating Volume Analysis into Your Trading Strategy 📊
To effectively incorporate volume analysis into your trading strategy, consider the following tips:
Confirmation: Volume analysis can act as a confirmation tool for other technical indicators or chart patterns. For example, if a price breakout occurs with high volume, it confirms the strength of the breakout.
Relative Volume: Compare current volume to historical averages to gauge the intensity of trading activity. Unusually high or low volume relative to average volume can highlight potential trading opportunities.
Multiple Time Frames: Analyzing volume across different time frames can provide a broader perspective on market dynamics. Higher time frames can reveal long-term trends, while lower time frames offer insights into intraday trading activity.
📊 Volume Indicators 📊
To assist traders in analyzing volume effectively, several technical indicators have been developed. These indicators help visualize and interpret volume data in meaningful ways. Here are a few commonly used volume indicators:
Volume: The most basic volume indicator, volume bars represent the volume traded during each price bar or candlestick. By comparing the height of volume bars across different periods, traders can identify anomalies or significant shifts in trading activity.
Moving Average in volume indicator: Moving Average calculates the average volume over a specified period. It smoothens out volume data, making it easier to identify volume spikes.
On-Balance Volume (OBV): OBV measures the cumulative volume by adding or subtracting the volume based on whether prices close higher or lower. It helps identify periods of accumulation or distribution and can provide early signals of trend reversals.
Wave Volume Divergence: A unique addition to volume indicators, this indicator enhances volume analysis by providing wave volume divergence and cumulative volume information. Traders can utilize this indicator to identify potential divergences between volume and price, as well as observe the cumulative volume trends.
If you found this article helpful, please give it a like and feel free to share your observations in the comments section. Your support and feedback are highly appreciated, as they keep me motivated to write consistently.
Thank you for your support, likes, follows, and comments! For more articles and trade setups, don't forget to follow me on TradingView: in.tradingview.com
Keep exploring the power of volume analysis, and remember:
🌟 "Success in trading comes to those who diligently study the market and adapt their strategies." 🌟
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Price BreakoutsHello traders 📊
On this picture here you can see 3 types of breakouts. On the left side you can see breakout examples in an downtrend and on the right side, you can see examples in an uptrend.
Breakouts occur when price breaks a certain zone (support or resistance) and in many cases breakouts represent very important moment. This is usually good time to look for opportunity to trade.
First type of breakout is "strong breakout". They occur once the price breaks certain zone with a strong candle and continue to move without pullback.
Second type of breakout is "retest". Retests are very common and extremely useful. Some of the best trading opportunities are when retest occurs. This means that price went back to test previously broken zone and this is usually good place to buy or sell.
Third type of breakout is "fake-out". This is the worst scenario as price quickly goes back after a breakout. Traders usually enter after a breakout, but once fake-out occurs, traders lose as price goes back quickly to hit stop loss.
We can not know exactly when fake-out will occur, but the best way to protect your account from this is to wait for the candle to close and to avoid to trade when big news are about to release.
Have a great day!
Candlestick Mastery: Reading Price Action for Winning TradesIn the ever-evolving world of trading, mastering candlestick patterns and effectively interpreting price action can significantly enhance your ability to make winning trades. This trading idea aims to delve into the art of candlestick mastery, equipping traders with the knowledge and skills necessary to identify profitable opportunities in the market.
Objective:
The objective of this trading idea is to empower traders with a comprehensive understanding of candlestick patterns and their significance in analyzing price action. By leveraging these insights, traders can make informed decisions, enhance their risk management strategies, and improve their overall trading performance.
Key Components:
Candlestick Basics:
To build a strong foundation in candlestick trading, it is essential to understand the fundamentals of candlestick charts. Dive into the various types of candlestick patterns and their characteristics. Explore patterns such as doji, hammer, shooting star, engulfing patterns, and more. Learn how to interpret the different components of a candlestick, including the body, wicks, and their sizes. Understand the significance of bullish and bearish candlestick formations in identifying market sentiment and potential trend reversals.
Pattern Recognition:
Mastering pattern recognition is a crucial aspect of candlestick trading. Gain in-depth knowledge of bullish and bearish reversal patterns that can provide valuable entry or exit signals. Study patterns such as the hammer, engulfing patterns, harami, and more. These patterns indicate potential trend reversals and offer opportunities for profitable trades. Additionally, explore continuation patterns like the flag, pennant, and symmetrical triangle, which suggest the continuation of existing trends. Real-life examples and case studies can help reinforce your understanding and sharpen your ability to spot these patterns in real-time.
Price Action Analysis:
Integrating candlestick patterns with price action analysis is a powerful approach to trading. Learn how to incorporate other technical indicators and tools into your analysis to validate and enhance the accuracy of your candlestick signals. Understand the importance of support and resistance levels, trendlines, and moving averages as they relate to candlestick patterns. By analyzing price action in conjunction with candlestick formations, you can gain deeper insights into market dynamics and improve your decision-making process.
Risk Management Strategies:
Effective risk management is paramount to successful trading. Develop robust risk management strategies specifically tailored to candlestick trading. Learn how to set appropriate stop-loss levels based on the structure of candlestick patterns and the surrounding market conditions. Explore position sizing methods to optimize risk-reward ratios and protect your trading capital. By implementing disciplined risk management techniques, you can safeguard against potential losses and preserve your long-term profitability.
Backtesting and Paper Trading:
Put your knowledge into practice by conducting backtesting using historical market data. Use candlestick patterns and price action analysis to identify potential trade setups and simulate trade entries and exits. Evaluate the performance of your strategies over different market conditions and timeframes. Additionally, utilize paper trading or demo accounts to execute trades based on your analysis without risking real capital. This hands-on experience will help you refine your trading approach, gain confidence, and validate the effectiveness of your strategies.
Trade Execution and Management:
Develop a systematic approach to trade execution and management. Learn practical methods for entering trades based on candlestick patterns and price action analysis. Define clear entry and exit criteria, set profit targets, and employ trailing stops to maximize potential gains. Additionally, explore techniques such as scaling in or out of positions to adapt to changing market conditions. Effective trade management strategies will enable you to stay disciplined and minimize emotional decision-making, leading to improved trading outcomes.
Mastering candlestick patterns and effectively reading price action can significantly improve your trading outcomes. By honing your skills in these key components, you can gain a competitive edge and increase your chances of making winning trades in the financial markets.
Thank you for reading and feel free to share your progress, ask questions, and discuss your experiences in the comments section. Let's learn from each other and continue refining this strategy together. Best of luck on your trading journey!
Disclaimer: Trading carries a level of risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It is important to conduct thorough research, practice proper risk management, and consider personal circumstances before making any trading decisions.
How to Trade the Markets - Step 2 - Develop the Mega TrendHello,
In this video series i will be walking you through my new approach on how i am currently trading the markets.
Step 2 - Develop the Mega Trend
Once you have entered your position and set your stop loss, you will then want to align the Trend Meters with your current lifeline candle. Ultimately we want to see the next day candle break below the previous day of support and start to create space from our position. We align the 7,14 and 21 Trend Meters to confirm the development for a Mega Trend winning position. Let it run and work for you!
We will exit and rotate the position once we have a confirmation from the Trend Meters.
Follow up videos will come in the future to show you how this has performed for the year.
Simplicity is key. Tight stops are key. Mega Trend is WINNING.
Take care.
How to Trade the Markets - Step 1 - Creating a LifelineHello,
In this video series i will be walking you through my new approach on how i am currently trading the markets.
Step 1 - Creating a Lifeline
We need to create a lifeline that factors no more than 2% on a stop loss playing the current daily candle. I will show you how to enter and factor in a stop loss for security in your capital.
Classic Reversal Pattern You Must Know
☑️WHAT IS THE RISING WEDGE PATTERN?
The rising (ascending) wedge pattern is a bearish chart pattern that signals a highly probable breakout to the downside. It’s the opposite of the falling (descending) wedge pattern (bullish). A rising wedge can be both a continuation and reversal pattern, although the former is more common and more efficient as it follows the direction of an overall trend.
The rising wedge consists of two converging trend lines that connect the most recent higher lows and higher highs. In a rising wedge, the lows are catching up with the highs at a higher pace, which means that the lower (supporting) trend line is steeper.
☑️KEY FEATURES
• The price action temporarily trades in an uptrend (the higher highs and higher lows)
• Two trend lines (support and resistance) that are converging
• The decrease in volume as the wedge progresses towards the breakout
The third point is seen more as a boost to the validity and effectiveness of the pattern, rather than a mandatory element. And it is applicable either for stocks trading mostly.
☑️SPOTTING THE RISING WEDGE
Identifying a rising wedge is not so difficult. As a first step, you should eliminate all types of wedges that are present in the sideways-trading environment. The ascending wedge occurs either in a downtrend as the price action temporarily corrects higher, or in an uptrend.
☑️TRADING THE RISING WEDGE
Trading the rising wedge pattern is pretty easy. After we correctly identified the pattern all we need to do is wait patiently for the breakout of the wedge to the downside. After the breakout is confirmed(usually at least a 4H candle needs to close below the broken level) we can place a limit order to short the pair on a pullback giving us a better risk to reward ratio. The correct Stop Loss should be placed above the last higher high established by the wedge before the breakout. What concerns the Take Profit level, it must be based on the technical levels below( If there are any). If not, then we might use Trailing Stop or just choose a minimal acceptable RR of 1:1,5
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