Faaalling Bitcoin? Cup and Handle + Volume AnalysisThis is a daily chart for BTCUSD on Bitstamp.
The most obvious thing I want to highlight is the battle at the 0.382 Fib level.
It is very very common for an asset to have a few checks and tests off of 0.382.
And BTC is no exception.
For the past few months, we've witnessed a battle between Bulls V Bears at 0.382.
Now, bull and bear volume has been declining. Who will take over?
It seems like the technical bearish pattern Cup and Handle has surfaced.
The Cup and Handle target is projected downward,
equal to the distance between the neckline and the highest point of the Cup and Handle.
This projection takes us right around the 0.618 and 0.786 levels.
These levels are very common to show reversals .
And around this level, the price is around $6K.
Funny, this is around double the last bottom ($3.1K).
Why am I bringing this up? Remember, if you consider Bitcoin
as a commodity, then you must remember that a commodity's price will gravitate to its cost of production over time .
With difficulty increasing, we know that CoP will increase over time, and that BTC will have higher bottoms , at least for the short to medium term.
So, it makes sense for BTC to follow this Cup and Handle projection.
But remember, the market can do any damn thing it wants; we'll just have to wait and see ;)
Btc-bitcoin
Bitcoin - There's Levels to This! Fibonacci & Cluster AnalysisThis is a 1-hour chart of BTCUSD on Bitstamp.
From the high this past July to the current price, it is clear that price is pivoting back and forth between key levels.
Those key levels are:
- 0.382
- 0.5 (not a Fib level but still a useful level of support/resistance)
- 0.618
- 0.786
- 0.886
From the Fib off of the high around $13.9K to the low around $9K, we see clustering around the following levels:
- 0.382
- 0.618
From the Fib off of the low around $9K to the high around $12K, we see clustering around the following levels:
- 0.786
- 0.886
From the Fib off of the high around $12K to the low around $9.3K, we see clustering around the following levels:
- 0.5
- 0.382
I think it's paramount to study and trade off of levels.
Use levels along with price action, market structure, volume, and location.
Otherwise, if you just rely on indicators, you are simply guessing where price could go. Indicators tell you about the PAST.
It's time to get smarter with our trades.
HOW TO READ THE BTC DOMINANCE CHART AND WHY YOU SHOULD USE IT!So, the title is obvious. Why should you be using this chart. Well unless you want to keep your Bitcoin, pin your ears back.
When BTC dominance is going up and keeps going up it means only one thing. Bitcoin is moving faster than alt-coins meaning your alt holdings are bleeding BTC at a heavy rate.
Too many people think they are winning in this industry because USD is up... When in actual fact they have lost a couple of BTC without noticing.
So take note of the dominance chart. Set an alert within a trend. If it is going down, look at altcoins to trade. If it is going up hold Bitcoin.
Xlm the second countcount 21 of 2
It's still in a regular ABC correction from the 1st wave & wave 3 is about to start. Trading in a nut shell = right about direction, but stopped out repeatedly from fear, bad ta, & over leveraged before the big move. Investors scale in and beat your a$$
Previous set up was beautiful but alt szn has not started yet and btc is still dragging them around from correlation.
Lets get complex and learn!
Ill update a thread with intra-day trade on my twitter in tv bio
Lesson in volumeIm seeing a build up of red volume candles which could signify a drop soon. What Ive noticed is if you look at the previous candles it helps when determining future price movement. For instance if you see 10 tiny red volume candles in a row they add up. So if you see a period with more red volume than green its not wrong to assume that a decline in price is in the cards. This isn't fool proof and you should also pay attention to other indicators that traders watch. In doing so you can greatly increase your chances of obtaining profit. Its all about increasing your chances of being successful.
Long story short, looking at volume is important. Understanding the way it works is crucial to being a decent trader. Look for the uptrends and downtrends in price action and pay attention to the volume situation. There is an obvious correlation. I am probably not the best person to be giving a lesson in TA. This was done more for personal reference. But I figured I would share with everyone! Im learning as I go :) Happy trading everyone!!!!
(Sorry I had to delete the original post because I saw a mistake)
How to code EMA, understand it by code : Bitcoins :BTCUSDWhat is EMA ?
Ema is known as exponential moving average, it comes from the class of weighted moving average. It gives more weightage to the recent price changes, thus making it much more relevant to the current market analysis. Also it provides a dynamic way of calculating support and resistances in a trend following setup.
The most common way to mint profit out from the market is to use trend following setups which can be easily achieved by using a group of EMA’s
So how’s this EMA calculated ?
Before understanding the calculation of EMA let’s look into a much wider topic:
“The Law of Averages”
It states : If you do something often enough a ratio will appear, simply put, any time series data, tend to deviate from its average.
EMA provides a way to statistically calculate the exponential moving average for a provided time series data giving much more emphasis on the most recent data in the series.
So in the 17th century, when the people were playing with numbers in their free time, they came up with a statistical strategy to envelop any time series data to detect the direction of the data flow , they called it exponential moving average.
Later in 1940’s with the increase in signal processing requirements in the field of electronic devices scientists started using Exponential moving average onto the electronic signal followers, just to classify the signals as above or below a moving/dynamic threshold.
So EMA is a smoothed time-series data.
The simplest form of EMA Smoothing can be given by the formula:
S(t) = alpha * X(t) + (1 - alpha) * X(t - 1).
The value of alpha must lie between 0 and 1
Where
alpha , is the smoothing factor
X(t) , is the current observation data point
X(t - 1), is the past observational data point.
t , is the current time
Generally,
In current day trading setups for EMA the alpha is calculated by
alpha = 2 / (time period window + 1)
Things to note here is that the alpha calculated above is the most generally used factor calculation method for EMA ,
You can tweak the alpha function above until it gives value between 0 and 1 for example alpha can also be written as
alpha = ln ( current price / past price )
Note it’s just a weighing scheme,
But for Our Case of EMA
We will be using
alpha = 2 / (time period window + 1)
Please refer to the script code :
SHARED HERE
BTC - Be cautious of the 5th wave. Elliott Wave Psychology Elliott Waves are derived from human psychology of Greed/Fear. Take care when U trade/long 5th waves, most retail traders tend to FOMO here because they missed the initial waves
Note that 5th wave in turn has 5 subwaves, DONT long the 5th subwave of the 5th wave
Reference:- www.profitf.com
Here is an example of possible waves for BTC with the recent uptrend. Where was your entry? Where do you plan to exit? Here are my thoughts
Entries
1) The best, most profitable long entry is at the beginning of wave 1, but its very hard to catch the bottom
2) Wave 2 is good for entries as you can set a stop loss at beginning of wave 1 (In EW, wave 2 can't go below wave 1)
3) Beginning of wave 3 is also a safe area to long, especially when price crosses wave1 top. This is least profitable entry, but safer and easier
Exits
1) Wave 3 top is a safe exit, especially if you entered in wave or wave 2
2) Subwave 3 of the 5th wave is a profitable place for exit but little risky
3) 5th top is the most profitable exit, but also the hardest and riskiest. IMO not worth the extra profit as its always hard to catch the tops
4) 4th waves are usually triangles and tend to be hard to trade
There is always corrective waves (usually ABC) after 5 wave are done, if you weren't able to exit during the 5-wave uptrend, it is ok to exit during the beginning of the A or during the deadcat bounce of B wave
Note that B waves are perfect bull traps, easy way to recognize them is that they have only 3 subwaves instead of 5 subwaves
Hope this helps! Please leave a thumbs up and love to hear your comments
BTC – A Subtle Art of Setting Stop LossesHi Guys!
We are sure many of you lost money being discarded from your positions even though you correctly predicted the general direction of the price.
It happened to us as well . Many times.
After such event, you feel bad and temporarily freezes from entering the new position because of the fact you feel insecure and you lose your self-confidence .
Unfortunately, many untrusted exchanges take their position in granted .
They see the whole order book and they see our stop losses.
The art of setting them properly is to set them where no other participants do the same.
In such a place, it is very likely our position maintains and we earn money together with manipulative participants of the market.
Unfortunately, that’s the way it is.
The same happens on forex but not in the exchanges but on the brokerage level.
Please take a look at the charts .
Everything is described there.
Please let us know what you think?
Do you have any other interesting strategy?
Remember set your stop-losses at the least obvious place .
Thank you for reading and your time.
MASSIVE Hugs!
WBM Team.
Fake Volume, Bitmex and a possible Bitcoin ETFIn this video I explain why fake volume is irrelevant, my counter arguments against the SEC's stance regarding liquidity and manipulation, how I see Bitmex and the decentralization of exchanges, along with the real issues an ETF needs to solve before it gets approved.
New signal Whipsaw seen biggest moves to date Will we get repeat#bitcoin New signal appeared All details on charts Go with #BITFINEX $4,084 or $4,028.4 #breakout but watch for #whipsaw biggest moves like (25-26 JAN18) (28-29 APR18) (27-28 JUL18) (10-11 NOV18) favoured bears but (10-11 DEC18) favoured bulls Not Advice. DYOR
Bitcoin Dominance | Gauging Contiunations and ReversalsBTC's dominance has been growing since the crypto bear market began at the beginning of 2018. Now we see a large flag formation that provides us with evidence that the dominance might continue growing. This also provides further evidence to support our forecast:
Once the BTC dominance starts to show a technical reversal, the bear market will likely come to an end:
Could Bitcoin Bottom at $1500I know people say that 200 MA is a strong indicator for when the market should turn, but if we had to do a symmetrical test of the previous bear market we can see a lot of symmetry in the 2 white boxes white in the previous case lead to a 60% drop and it lead to the bottom of the 2016 bear market. Just another chart to play devil advocate with. A what if scenario