How To Analyze Any Chart From Scratch - Episode 5Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Today we are going to go over a practical example on BTC, but you can apply the same logic / strategy on any instrument.
Feel free to ask questions or request any instrument for the next episode.
You can find the previous episodes below "Related Ideas"
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Btc-bitcoin
📊Why do the trading patterns work?Hi friends! Probably all traders began their career by learning the trading patterns.
A trading pattern is a price movement pattern in a certain range. Generally there are 2 types of patterns: candlesticks (shooting star, hammer, bullish or bearish engulfing) and figures (triangles, channels, flags, head and shoulders, etc.). The number of them is constantly increasing, through the change of market, but there are up to 50 main patterns.
📊So why do the trading patterns work?
The answer is very simple - because many traders use them in trading. Imagine a traffic light with a red light🔴 According to the rules all drivers who have the same signal stand waiting for a green light✅ Here, it lights up and allows all cars to move in the right direction. It's a clear rule, not only in your country, but in all the countries in the world. The situation is the same with trading patterns.
Let's imagine that a chart is a road, and a pattern is a light. The price rises or falls and a pattern is formed. You have determined that it is a bullish pattern, such as a bullish wedge. Of course, you are waiting for the wedge to move to the upper boundary and break it up, that will be a signal to open a trade (green signal to move✅). At the same time, all the drivers (read as "traders") begin buying with you and pushing the price higher and higher.
Why do traders do this? As I said in the beginning, patterns, like the rules of the road, are learned by all traders, regardless of nationality, this is the general rule, that is why these patterns work.
📊In what cases do they not work?
As you know, most people in the market can't be right. Conventionally, if everyone opened a long and bought Bitcoins at $50,000 and the price went up to $100,000, then someone should have bought those Bitcoins from you for 100% more. If everyone held a long, there would be no one to sell and no one would make a profit in the end. That's why there are always 2 sides in trading: buyers and sellers.
With the increasing popularity of patterns, most traders and especially beginners who first study patterns began to open trades according to these rules and .... took a loss. Patterns work especially badly on the cryptocurrency market, which shows how young this market is. But why? All because most cannot be right when trading patterns, otherwise no one would make money.
📊What should I do if I trade only paterns?
I would recommend adding more rules to your trading strategy. These can be different trading tools, filters which will help you to remove "fake" signals and increase win rate. For example, trade not the triangle pattern, but its false breakout using a volume indicator:
1️⃣A false breakout in most cases shows that the price will not go in the direction of the breakout, as there are too many willing to open a trade in the direction of the price movement.
2️⃣The volume indicator will show the actual number of buy and sell orders. If the volume at a false breakdown of the lower boundary of the triangle has increased - this tells us that the price is more likely not to move down, as there is serious support there.
This is the simplest example. You can also use indicators, additional trend lines, candlestick or fundamental analysis.
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
🚩How to identify the bottom and BUY the crypto in time? 3 tips!🌟How to BUY crypto in time and with the possible highest RETURN? The correct answer is during the capitulations.
🎯Capitulation is when even patient and experienced traders start to panic, but this is the opportunity time (Jan 2015, Nov 2018, Mar 2020, May 2021).
🔶How to buy crypto during the capitulations? Use the dollar cost average (DCA) strategy. This strategy allows you to buy crypto by parts without risking all of your capital.
🔶How to use DCA strategy? This strategy helps to average the BUY price. You can only sell at the top and buy at the bottom by accident. In real life, this strategy helps to average the buy price of a crypto. For example, back in 2019, you bought Bitcoin 3 times at $3,000, $4,000, and $5,000. The average purchase price in this case is $4,000. If the price go lower, you would average the price, if it rose, you already bought at a good price. Also, you can BUY at the weekly candle close during the capitulions. It is important to use the equal parts of the capital to buy (1/10, 1/20 etc.). Another simple example is shown on the chart😉
🔶How you can identify a capitulation?
1. Look at the volumes and record liquidations as shown on the chart. The liquidation of 50-100k Bitcoins is the best indicator.
2. Look at the percentage of drop from the highs. Historically, a price drop by 65-80% has been the bottom of the market.
3. Use the indicators that show the bottom of the market. Read this idea about the 🔋Greenwich indicator. It shows both the top and bottom of the market. So when BUY signals (green diamonds) appear, you can use this indicator to buy crypto by parts.
🔶Why does the DCA strategy work? Bitcoin, like U.S. stock markets, is in a long-term Uptrend. After buying Bitcoin in 2017 at its ATH ($18-19k), investors are now still at +100% profit. And as long as this trend is not broken this strategy will work. For example, the U.S. stock market has been in uptrend for over 80-90 years.
💻Please write in the comments if you still have questions about the DCA strategy or how else you can identify the bottom. What methods do you use for that? 🎇
Press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Bitcoin: Liquidity and Order blocks!This is an educational post! I have tried to combine the concept of liquidity with that of supply and demand to show you one of the most efficient trade setups in financial markets!
You basically have a descending trendline in 30m chart of bitcoin! Price reaches a confluence area in higher time frame analysis (let's not be concerned about that now) then it jumps a bit to create a range! We know range bounds are liquidity nests!
So price first grabs the upper range liquidity, breaking the market structure at the same time and hence confirming the long bias! Then it comes down to the demand zone, grabbing the lower range liquidity at the same time and then boom! It goes to the target!
BTC: Real Life mirror level trading! Tutorial for Beginners!💡A mirror level is a level that price tests as support and resistance several times. It helps to open long or short trades on a test of the level. Usually the mirror levels are numbers like 100, 1000, 50,000, which traders pay attention to. It can also be previous ATHs, important global levels that can be easily identified. Price bounces off of them because a large number of traders pay attention to it.
I have marked 2 global mirror levels for you:
1. $10101
2. $41950
On the chart I have marked tests of these levels. Also, on the chart you can see several short (+63%) and long (+59.7%) trades.
Now I give you 2 tips on how to open a trade using the mirror level:
🔶open a trade with a pending stop order. When the price is testing the level as support you can put a stop order to buy, and when it's resistance you can put a stop order to sell
🔶open the trade after the close of the candle. Once you are sure that the level has held the price as support or resistance you can open a trade
📑Based on the statistics, you can see that longs are more profitable. This is because Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are growing 80% of the time. But you can calculate the statistics by yourself and consolidate your new knowledge!
🎓Also you can read the basic desription about Real Life channel trading in this educational idea!
✉Friends, if you still have questions about using the mirror level, write the comments or to the DM!
Press the "like"💟 button and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
BTC: identified the bottom with VOLUME PROFILE! How to use it?
As we expected, Bitcoin tested the $37800-39600 zone. But how could you predict this? You have to use the volume profile.
A volume profile is close to horizontal volumes (bottom panel), but using them, you can indicate:
1. value areas(support and resistance)
2. liquidity gaps
This indicator is easy to apply, it is in the left sidebar in the "Prediction and Measurement Tools". You can use it to indicate the value zones in ANY crypto/stocks/currency.
Why does it work? The volume profile is a real value data and that's why the price reacts to it most of the time. Similarly, you can use the DOM and Footprint in real time to track the value zones and reversal points for price. If you have questions about it, write in comments or to the DM!
Right now we expect an upward move on Bitcoin:
1. The price has started to squeeze under the $41400-42700 value zone, which shows buyer strength.
2. Volumes have also increased. BIG VOLUMES=BIG PLAYERS.
3. Short traders who opened trades on the fall will be the FUEL for the upward movement.
Friends, press the "like" button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
AXS, how to trade using KEY LEVELS? FREE education!Key Level. How can a common tool help you to earn more? Let's take Axie Infinity (AXS) as an example!
A key level is a local minimum or maximum. It can be clearly marked after a BIG price movement up or down (points of extremum). Key levels are often the price of 1, 10, 50, 100 dollars, because many traders pay attention to this numbers.
On the chart we have marked two key levels:
1. lower (for longs) - $44.68
2. upper (for shorts) - $72
When to open a trade:
1. on a test of the key level as support or resistance;
2. on false breakdown of the level.
IMPORTANT: IN BOTH CASES, VOLUMES MUST INCREASE! It`s an indicator that a big player opens a trade too!
Using the KEY LEVELS you could earn: +62%, +62%, +38%. Risk to reward for these trades from 1:7 to 1:14(!). It's a good statistic, right?
If you still have questions how to use the key level and what tools can be used to increase your profitability - write in the comments or to the DM.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade.
Timing the Market Using Tether DominanceI always emphasize that time in the market beats timing the market, but I want to share an interesting approach that you can consider taking when timing the cryptocurrency market, especially when it comes to Bitcoin's overall direction.
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Tether Dominance
- Just as Bitcoin dominance refers to Bitcoin's market cap relative to that of the entire market cap, Tether dominance is no different.
- It refers to how much capital is parked in stablecoins, specifically Tether, at any point in time.
- Since Tether (USDT) is a stablecoin that tracksthe USD, an increase in Tether dominance suggests a pullback or correction in cryptocurrencies.
- A simple way to understand it is to think of USD flowing in and out of the market.
- On the other hand, if Tether dominance drops, it means that more capital is being deployed to purchase cryptocurrencies, which is bullish overall for the market.
- If you look at the graph above, you'll clearly see the inverse correlation between Bitcoin (orange) and Tether dominance (black).
- Key support and resistance zones for Tether dominance are marked as well.
- As we're currently trading slightly above local support, marked in green, if we see Tether Dominance fall below those levels, we could expect Bitcoin to continue rallying upwards.
Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis
- We've tested Bitcoin's yearly open price at $47.2k, and failed to break above the 200 simple moving average (purple).
- Bitcoin has retraced to $45-46k levels, which is a completely anticipated move considering that pullbacks can take place upon breakouts.
- As the overall structure remains bullish, and we see the moving averages cross again, aligning in order for a bull rally, I expect us to retest $50k ranges again.
- Whether we get rejected at those levels, or break through it is unclear, but we'll take it by levels as we always do.
Conclusion
With Tether dominance currently barely holding local support, I think there's a high probability that we see those support levels break down, and see Bitcoin rally upwards once again. This is definitely an indicator that you want to continuously refer to as you trade.
If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content!
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
Is SHIB in the ACCUMULATION phase? Identifying the WHALES!Shiba Inu (SHIB) is one of the most popular project of 2021. After the accumulation phase, it rose by about 1000%!
Now the token has dropped by 70% of its ATH and has been consolidating for about 2 months. Could this mean the beginning of a new growth phase?
Accumulation phase is the purchase of cryptocurrency by BIG players to sell higher to the retail investor.
There's not a lot of HYPE around this token right now. Retail traders who have lost 20-50% of their money are starting to sell out in a panic. At this time, the BIG players buy the available tokens from the market to sell higher to new traders who will come on the next HYPE. The same situation as it was in 2021!
It is important to say that if Bitcoin starts its drop, then altcoins will drop too.
Is this really the accumulation phase and we close to RENEW the ATH? We will only know after some time, but we already see the signs of accumulation phase on the chart.
Friends, press the "like" button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Superprofits in BTC mining are a thing of the past."Technical analysis" of the cost of mining BTC.
We have already seen when in the bear market in the range from August 2018 to November 2020, the price of BTC pressed against the cost of production (best miner @ 0.1kWh).
I expect that in the future the price, due to the increasing competition of miners, will not differ much from the cost price (after the 4th halving).
Wanna identify reversals? This video shows how I do it :)The time is going to be coming soon when the market is going to go back to a bull market. But what if you could identify how to find those reversals yourself? In this video I go over how I use TA to find VERY important reversal and breakout zones. Enjoy
Strong Shakeout/StopLoss-Hunt Reveals The Bottom - RSKThis is the pattern that reveals the bottom for the Altcoins (Altcoins vs Bitcoin).
We are looking at it on the RSK Infrastructure Framework (RIFBTC) chart but it is present/showing up everywhere.
This pattern is what we call a "shakeout" or a stop-loss hunt move.
The market breaks down strong below support just to move quickly back above it.
This started happening 24-Jan. and 7 days later all loses have been recovered and instead of consolidation/sideways we will see a new uptrend form.
Another detail about this pattern is the bullish divergence that always shows up long-term.
If you zoomout, you can see the higher low on the MACD and the lower low on RIFBTC.
Keep this pattern in mind when looking for new trading opportunities.
I really hope it helps.
Namaste.
Lessons for the year and into 2022Over the last year I have spent a lot of time on @TradingView writing up educational content, I have tried to apply drawings to my charts to express some lessons in simple yet easy to follow and understand walkthroughs.
Here's a chronology regardless of your experience and level.
Let's start with Psychology - this is the life and soul of the market, if humans where not so predictable then we would have a completely different looking chart. Humans spot patterns - even when they are not there. We try and assume, we get greedy, fearful and often just outright stupid. Entering trades at wrong times, listening to fake guru's and not doing the work ourselves. When you understand the emotional aspect of trading, your already 50% of the way to becoming a successful trader!
In this post (click the images for each individual post) - you will see how the basic emotions work at various aspects of the chart.
In a more simplistic form I broke the market phases down in relation to the post above, this time using the Simpsons as the best way to let traders relate to such phases;
Homer is brilliant!
Again - once you understand some of the basic psychology you can start to create a framework around investing, it will help build a plan. In this next post I wrote about the reasons why people get into crypto - the thrill of the ride, the desire to make it.
Once you got a feel for what it is your looking to do and you are wanting to play in the crypto sphere - here's a post that will help you on assessing an alt coin, the process of going through your own due diligence rather than listening to a youtube guru. A lot of what you need to know when searching for the next big thing, is already written in the business itself - this will include everything from the founders, the plan, money raised and so on.
Ok so let's step over to some of the technical aspects of trading;
Here's a post on the simple trendline - for you experienced traders jump this and the next Moving average post.
From trendlines to Moving Averages;
These kinds of tools coupled with some basic off the shelf indicators will get you going on your your journey - but you have to remember over 70% of retail traders lose money. There's even an industry quote that states 90% of new traders lose 90% of their account in 90 days. When everyone is using the same Moving averages, MACD and RSI - all it does is lends itself to the type of emotional analysis mentioned in the psychology section. So trade carefully.
ALWAYS deploy proper risk management and do your own due diligence.
Here's the basic on using the MACD if you do want to use it along with the 50 and 200 Moving Averages ;-)
All new traders want to buy the dip! But how; well here's a little advice on that too.
This is where it get's interesting;
Going back over 100 years there was a cluster of hyper intelligent traders, these techniques are still widely used today and just as relevant in crypto as they where for commodities and stocks when they where first introduced.
Here's the introduction;
Personally I feel these guys where not technical analysts but emotional analysts - they understood various aspects of why the charts do what they do, why the human mindset drives the target levels, the patterns are created and so on.
From here we can cover the technical viewpoint;
Here is an intro to Dow theory...
Elliott waves;
And even Wyckoff;
It was this post that many of you know me for - this was the method used in March to call the incoming top for Bitcoins first major move down.
However, the greatest tool of all for doing any kind of Technical Analysis is likely to be Fibonacci;
A very old technique and amazing to see the levels get tagged each step of the way, this can be applied to various other strategies and techniques.
The whole crypto space is filled with rubbish advice, scams and people claiming to make money. The truth is, like every other trading instrument - it's a dog eat dog world and you need to be able to take care of yourself. I wrote this article explaining why common sense is not that common anymore - logic seems to go out of the window when it comes to crypto. So please keep a level head.
Life ain't linear - Yes this is a drawing; took AGES!!!
I've tried to cover as much useful info for the @TradingView community as possible throughout the year. Here's another couple of posts that you might find interesting;
Do you know what is going on, inside the candle?
Chart patterns?
Even covered the art of the Pivot Point.
What don't you know about dark pools?
Or the difference in Volume profiles?
Or even if your interested in making your own indicators?
And to finish with on the technical side- Here's a couple of good books to get you going into 2022!
If you haven't followed me throughout the year and seeing this for the first time - here's every swing & supporting logic for the Bitcoin move throughout the year.
And to finish with NFT's and the METAVERSE.
and this one;
Hope you have had a great 2021! 2022 will be even better! Have a great NEW YEAR's eve and see you on the other side!!!
Feel free to give me a follow here and comments always welcome!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Futures Trading & Terminology ExplainedTrading futures is not for beginners and should only be attempted by experienced traders with a strong understanding of the market as a whole and especially a strong understanding of Risk Management & Trading Psychology.
Below I have explained some of the Risks involved in Trading Futures:
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Liquidation
When liquidation occurs your position is forcibly closed due to not having sufficient balance to keep your borrowed positions afloat. When trading futures on high leverage, your losses can quickly reach double digit percentages and if they exceed the remaining balance in your account you can be liquidated.
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Leverage
Leverage, or to be leverage refers to the act of borrowing money off the exchange to trade. When a trader has insufficient balances to cover their leveraged position left in the account a liquidation call can occur. Keep track of your margin ratio and keep it low to prevent liquidations, and use risk management techniques.
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Volatility
Market volatility can be high in emerging markets, and many traders love volatility for its big swings to profit, but in futures trading considering losses are potentially heightened by leverage volatility can become a dangerous thing to a trader. In volatile markets market stop losses can often trigger much further than the triggered price adding to losses, or even resulting in liquidation.
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Stop Hunting
Stop hunting occurs when large entities such as corporations, or “Whales” purposefully target the stop loss orders of traders, knowing that at these areas when a large amount of orders is triggered a contrarian position can be acquired by these entities by buying or selling into a large stop trigger event, by doing this they can easily buy or sell a large amount of an asset when also having very little affect on the price in the short term.
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Exchange Downtime
During extreme market movements sometimes exchanges can crash and traders are unable to login, close or open positions on the exchange, Liquidation events, Market Crashes, Manipulation, Volatility, Stop Hunting may all come into play when Exchange Downtime occurs and it is a risky endeavor to be positioned in borrowed money when a exchange is offline.
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Market Crashes
Market Crashes, Black Swan Events etc. can occur frequently in emerging markets, infrequently in traditional markets. During Market Crashes huge cascades of liquidations can occur taking out over leveraged long traders.
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Manipulation
Stop Hunting is also a form of Market Manipulation. Sometimes vested interests work together to hold down the price of an asset or push up the price to trigger orders, and shake out retail players.
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Overtrading
Due to the heightened losses applicable from borrowed money, overtrading on futures/leverage can quickly wipe out your balance, it is key that you understand how to size your trades correctly as well as managing your risk and mental state to avoid this occurring.
Bitcoin's Market Cycle Explained Through Elliott WavesThis is an educational post on Elliott Impulse Wave structures, and how the theory can be applied to Bitcoin's chart, in order for us to identify the overall market trend.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Basic Elliott Wave Structure
- 80% of the time, an Elliott Impulse Wave would have a structure as the diagram demonstrated above.
- After the first impulse wave, we have wave 2, which is a short term corrective wave, play out.
- Most of the time, the second wave demonstrates a zig zag pattern, in which we can count ABC waves.
- When the second wave is a zigzag, there's a high probability that the fourth wave demonstrates a complex correction, such as a double three (WXY), or a triple three (WXYXZ).
- Also, when the second wave is a zig zag pattern, there's a high probability that the length of the third wave is 1.618x of the first wave's length.
- In this case, there's also a high probability that the length of the fifth wave is equal to that of the first wave.
- Keep in mind that these are all probabilities. There are no rules set in stone that state that waves have to move a certain way, in a certain length, but they tend to demonstrate this structure under certain conditions
Bitcoin's Elliott Wave Structure
- However, as you can notice from Bitcoin's Elliott Wave count chart above, Bitcoin's second wave did not demonstrate a zig zag pattern.
- Instead, Bitcoin demonstrated a triple three (WXYXZ) leading to a sharp final drop caused by the Covid outbreak.
- When the second wave demonstrates a triple three pattern, there's a high probability that the fourth wave demonstrates a zig zag pattern.
- Also, when the second wave is a complex correction, there's a high probability that the third wave's length is 2.618x of the first wave's length.
- Additionally, when the second wave is a complex correction, there's a high probability that the final wave's length is 1.618x of the first wave's length.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart Elliott Wave Analysis
- Taking into consideration the Elliott Wave structures explained above, we can now see that Bitcoin's trend can be explained by the second diagram.
- We saw a complex correction (triple three, WXYXZ) pattern on Bitcoin's second wave.
- We're currently completing wave 4, which seems to be a running flat pattern (ABC).
- While this isn't exactly a zig zag pattern, it's a variation of the zig zag pattern, and part of the larger concept of simple corrections.
- For a more in-depth explanation on this corrective trend for the short term, make sure to check out my previous analysis by clicking the chart below:
Revealing My Secret Method: Technical Symmetry Analysis
Summary
I believe that there's an extremely high probability that Bitcoin's bull run isn't over. While December's price action may be rather disappointing, as we're in the process of completing the final corrective wave within a bigger impulse trend, we could expect a parabolic rally as we move towards Q1 of 2022. Using Elliott Waves isn't about accurately predicting the exact price and period of an asset's price action. While a lot of people try to correct each other on "wrong counts", unless the general rules are kept, there really isn't a strictly correct way or incorrect way of using this theory as a tool. In my opinion, Elliott Waves are best used on longer time frames, to identify the overall trend, and which point of the market cycle we are at.
Top 10 Cryptocurrencies & Their Real World UsesIn this video we explain the real world use cases of each of the top 10 cryptocurrencies. A lot of focus in crypto is focused on the price and the volatility of each coin without many people necessary understanding what their purposes are.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Digital Gold, a store of wealth and protection against inflation… this is because there’s a limited supply of BTC (21 Million) that will ever be mined. It’s supply cannot be inflated like FIAT currencies (Dollar, Pound, Euro etc) can simply be printed.
Collateral in DeFi, in many DeFi (Decentralised Finance) Bitcoin is used as collateral for you to borrow against the value of in return for a cryptocurrency loan for example. We will explain DeFi in a little more detail later.
Banking the unbanked, in many struggling economies (El Salvador for example) Bitcoin is a useful way for communities to gain access to banking facilities. While in many of those regions economies are still largely cash-driven and people cannot afford to pay for transportation to visit banks for registration, the number of those who have access to or own mobile phones is increasing. Thus, using digital wallets to transfer Bitcoin independent of traditional banks may provide a viable alternative for people without a bank account to participate in finance and to create a store of value.
Ethereum (ETH)
Smart contracts, In essence, smart contracts are created to automatically execute and complete processes, such as a payment process, in digitised form. This is the key to Ethereum’s success and its core use case. It enables developers to create complex applications powered by Ethereum’s platform.
DeFi applications, The largest category of smart contracts on Ethereum’s platform is in the form of Decentralised Finance applications.
With DeFi, you can do most of the things that banks support — earn interest, borrow, lend, buy insurance, trade derivatives, trade assets, and more — but it’s faster and doesn’t require paperwork or a third party. As with crypto generally, DeFi is global, peer-to-peer (meaning directly between two people, not routed through a centralized system), and open to all.
NFTs, an emerging use case for Ethereum is in the form of payment for NFTs… you will find that most NFT’s prices are denominated in ETH. NFTs for anyone that isn’t aware are essentially digital art that its authenticity is confirmed in blockchain data.
Think of it as a version of the Twitter blue tick for limited edition digital art.
Cardano (ADA)
Store of Value & Smart Contracts - The Cardano coin can be used as a transfer of value in a similar way that cash is currently used. This is not very different from other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Bitcoin, but ADA has other uses as well.
One of the core principles of Cardano is its PoS blockchain protocol where ADA is staked to the blockchain to successfully verify transactions on the blockchain. This is where Cardano crypto comes in handy. Those who stake their ADA to the blockchain are rewarded for their efforts with more Cardano crypto in return. This staking system helps maintain security throughout the blockchain.
There is also the use of ADA in voting. In Cardano, unlike other blockchain projects, it is not miners who vote and decide on changes to the protocol, it is token holders. Therefore, when a new change or development is proposed to the Cardano blockchain, Cardano crypto holders use their ADA to vote on these proposals. This way, everyone who owns the cryptocurrency has a say in its development.
ADA also can be used to power the smart contract platform on the Cardano blockchain. Developers utilise ADA to create smart contracts and applications that run on the secure, decentralised Cardano blockchain.
In the case of running smart contracts it is cheaper in transaction fees than Ethereum.
Tether (USDT)
Stablecoin - Backed by US dollars and value is pegged to always be at-or very close to £1 per 1 USDT
Transferring Crypto - Lots of people will use Tether as a middleman when transferring money from one cryptocurrency to another without paying the fees associated either between each crypto or back and forth into Fiat currencies.
Generating a Yield - Some tether users also simply hold their funds in Tether because it generates a higher yield or interest rate than their money would in a bank for example.
Binance Coin (BNB)
Binance Coin is the cryptocurrency issued by the Binance exchange and trades with the BNB symbol.
BNB was initially based on the Ethereum network but is now the native currency of Binance's own blockchain, the Binance chain.
Every quarter, Binance uses one-fifth of its profits to repurchase and permanently destroy, or "burn," Binance coins held in its treasury.
Binance was created as a utility token for discounted trading fees in 2017, but its uses have expanded to numerous applications, including payments for transaction fees (on the Binance Chain), travel bookings, entertainment, online services, and financial services.
Ripple (XRP)
Very quick & cheap cross border payments
,
The primary use case for XRP is intended to be for transfer of other currencies (or indeed commodities or assets such as gold or oil) over the Ripple network. Each time a money (or asset) transferring organisation such as a bank uses the network to conduct a transfer and settlement, the cost is deducted in a small amount of XRP.
Cross-border payments between banks and organisations currently run on a system called SWIFT… a system created in 1973. This is essentially what Ripple and its coin XRP could replace with a much quicker and cheaper system.
Solana (SOL)
Smart Contracts platform.
Much in the same way that both Ethereum & Cardano is used on a day to day basis as developers who make applications on the Solana blockchain pay SOL coins for the processing / transaction fees.
Large numbers of NFTs are also available on the Solana blockchain.
Polkadot (DOT)
Interoperability - Allow different blockchains to talk to each other and share data / features between each other. This is useful for developers when making new blockchains, as they are able to use sections of features from different chains without the need to create them from scratch each time.
Unlimited Supply - Unlike most other cryptocurrencies, DOT isn’t limited in supply. This is designed to incentivise the network and dynamically adjust according to participation rates of users.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Meme coin which was originally created as a joke or parody of the crypto world.
Now however has gained massive popularity and even is considered for payments as a real world use. This is still to be widely accepted however.
USDC (USDC)
Stablecoin, backed by US dollars and value is pegged to always be at-or very close to £1 per 1 USDT. Not as popular or widely used by the market than Tether.
Read The Market (RTM) 🚦 each reversal pivot or node (flag) has big orders that makes a Failure To Continue interval which called FTC
imagine that each reversal pivot has 3 disposable price interval like traffic light :
1. yellow (FTC accept) : its kind of protection for FTC, start of finding divergence like wave 3-5 of Elliot
2. red (FTC) : the level which has biggest order and most potential to revers
3. green (MPL) : its safe to continue...
* notice that each interval is disposable, it means that if price touch it once, it doesn't work any more ...
** we have any fractal concept in this strategy like other's... sor for each big FTC, we have more accurate FTC ... if you dont know what fractal means, check "Butterfly effect and Fractal" tutorial on related ideas ...
as you see in Bitcoin, 55-58 is the last FTC of FTC for uptrend and it has already touched once, so we dont have any red light above but .... it has just reached accurate red light and still we have FTC of 55-58 interval which is 56100-56900 ... so BTC should have some retrace to a reversal point (FTC) ... it has a minor FTC in 42k and major one around 38k, both of them are untouched ... after 37k is green to continue to 27 or 24 even...
we try to continue showing each traffic light 🚦 in following analysis ...
thanks for reading this article, hope it would gainful...
BTC USDT correlationHello traders,
I think those two charts are useful when used alongside each other in correlation.
It is logical that decline in BTC price leads to inflow in USDT and vice versa. So we could say (and the chart shows, that the correlation between the price BTC and market cap of USDT is inversely proportional).
For further simple explanation there are some events marked on the chart:
Red Flag - A gap in USDT inflow probably shows that institutions are selling before BTC price declines. It is actually only the third candle on USDT when the selloff of the bitcoin occurs.
Blue flag - USDT cap fails to pick up momentum and start going down significantly while BTC surges.
Orange flag - USDT market cap is flatting out, fails to go lower low and starts forming local higher lows. BTC is still pushing higher, but the trend is converting to the broad bull channel/Trading range as more and more bears are buying into the shorts and more and more bulls are taking profits.
Purple flag - BTC - huge rising wedge formed and wedges tend to break to the lower side. Lower high also formed and after.
3rd higher low formed and money starts to flow into USDT.
Green flag - wedge top in USDT, while wedge bottom in BTC. Reversal on both charts.
At the moment USDT market cap is in sharp decline, which might signal that BTC will be going much higher
What you may not realize...Over the last couple of months, I have posted several educational articles. This one is to show how some of the tools widely used in trading can actually fit together.
I wrote a post a while ago about Dow Theory and how it fits into most modern technical analysis.
Click on each link to get the in depth content from the posts
When looking at a trend, cycle or major market move. The best place to start is from the biggest time frame available. This giving an overall bias for the overall trend, some people will refer to this as the monthly, super cycle, major trend. It basically means as large as you want. This can be based on your trading style, no point trying to obtain a bias on a minute chart.
For me I like the bias based on monthly Elliott wave moves;
Again click the image for the full post, at the bottom of this post in related ideas there is also basic level 2 Elliott.
Once you have the bias we can work out exactly where we are, like one of those street maps in a city.
We can use Fibonacci levels to drill down into potential areas of interest and targets for both the extensions and retracements.
Here is another article posted recently as an intro to Fibonacci;
Once you can identify potential areas of interest, you can drill down again into more advanced techniques such as Wyckoff.
In Wyckoff terms - I wrote a couple of articles and recorded several streams on the logic for the BTC call at the top in the middle of February, before the "Rocket post in March" all based on the info mentioned above here.
In this post, I covered the basics of Wyckoff and it's simple logic
Before going into the types of schematics here below;
The Wyckoff schematics is a little more advanced than the other techniques here, but when you know where you are in the cycle, they become a lot easier to identify.
In the "related ideas" section I covered a chronology of education, covering other topics like buying the dips, MACD, Trendlines and Moving Averages.
I hope this post gets you thinking about how it all fits and works together.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
A technique from 1202 - Really? images
Who was Fibonacci?
Fibonacci (1170 – c. 1240–50), also known as Leonardo Bonacci, Leonardo of Pisa, or Leonardo Bigollo Pisano was an Italian mathematician from the Republic of Pisa, considered to be "the most talented Western mathematician of the Middle Ages".
Fibonacci popularized the Hindu–Arabic numeral system in the Western world primarily through his composition in 1202 of Liber Abaci (Book of Calculation). He also introduced Europe to the sequence of Fibonacci numbers, which he used as an example in Liber Abaci.
You may have seen this?
This is what’s called the Golden ratio. I am not looking to go into depth on Fibonacci use cases, spirals, fans, arcs, circles, wedges and channels. However, it was important to mention so you can go away and do your own research on Fibonacci beyond this “welcome to” post.
Why is this useful for trading?
The Fibonacci sequence is quite possibly the most used tool in trading stocks, Forex, Commodities and even crypto.
In mathematics, the Fibonacci numbers, commonly denoted Fnuch that each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting from 0 and 1.
However, you are probably more familiar with Fibonacci extension and retracement levels.
It’s all based on the same logic.
Fibonacci numbers appear unexpectedly often in mathematics, so much so that there is an entire journal dedicated to their study, the Fibonacci Quarterly. Applications of Fibonacci numbers include computer algorithms such as the Fibonacci search technique and the Fibonacci heap data structure, and graphs called Fibonacci cubes used for interconnecting parallel and distributed systems.
They also appear in biological settings, such as branching in trees, the arrangement of leaves on a stem, the fruit sprouts of a pineapple, the flowering of an artichoke, an uncurling fern, and the arrangement of a pine cone's bracts.
Just look at this image once more!
So what?
The fact that these numbers appear in nature, it has clearly been adopted in art and architecture – this is due to the human desire for pattern recognition. It’s built into our DNA, the fact that we as a collective want to identify such patterns, will in fact drive charts.
I have written articles on Elliott Waves - which again is quite possibly one of the biggest use cases for Fibonacci, definitely an easy way to see the powers at work.
Here’s a link to one such article;
How to use Them?
If you have been trading for some time you are most likely familiar with Fibonacci techniques, if you are new, here is some basic logic to get you started.
As mentioned above there are several tools for Fibonacci, as a new trader I would suggest only looking at extensions and retracements to start you off.
Retracement
These levels often work well as support and resistance, you will find opportunities to enter on pullbacks (retracements) against the overall trend. Common levels here are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% (although it’s not technically a real fib level, another topic for another time) then of course the 61.8% and the 78.6%.
How to draw these on the chart – you are looking for 3 points let’s assume A,B & C. You are looking for A to be at the start of your trend. Often this will be a swing low or high.
Let’s assume we are looking at an uptrend and we want to see the pullback. A would be placed here as above.
The next step is to use the extension tool and click A and drag to point B as below;
and the pullback level;
Now we have a move A to B we can start to look for areas of interest, in this example we can see the pullback was to the 38.2% level.
Some people are critical on the levels, for me I like it to tag the level and if it goes a little deeper then I still like it, if it doesn’t tag the level I would round it down to the lower level. Meaning if it fails at say 37.9% I would like to still think of it as only the 23,6% fib level. But there is no hard and fast rule on this.
Now this gives me A and B with a 38% pullback for C.
One way to trade using this could be a simple Buy at the break of B with a stop “Below” C
Not telling you this is what you should do, it’s just one method some do use. Obviously, you could increase the stop and put it under A instead.
Difference between Retracement and Extensions?
The data you gather by assessing the pullback becomes valuable when looking for potential targets, so whilst we used 2 touch points (A & B) for getting the retracement level, the most accurate extension forecasting tool would be to use all 3 (A, B and C). Although it can also be done by using only A and B as well, It’s another one of those not so clear rules.
Whilst the retracement tool gives us the pullback, the extension will give us some target areas.
Let’s start with the simple (not my preferred) method;
This is known as the extensions – 2 points (A, B) drag the curser from A to B and click and then back to A and click off.
With this method you will notice in your back-testing those areas of interest will often be at the 61.8% of the A to B move. This means if A + B = 100, then the target would be around 161-2.
Also, the 100% of the A-B move giving a target example of 200 and lastly the 1.618 level. Giving a target of 261-2 level. Again, no hard fast rule. This is just something seen over and over again.
Expansion levels
To start with go from A to B with the extension tool and pullback to C and click off. Assume you are using @TradingView
Much like the Extension you will notice similar characteristics of the moves up (in this example of the uptrend)
Something interesting
I mentioned above this is a great tool to use alongside Elliott Waves, here’s an example of how this works and can fit into the charts.
In this image above we use the same A point as a starting point, B becomes the 1 and 2 becomes the C. We can then work the Fibonacci extension & expansion levels to determine where 3 is likely to go. And then we can use the retracement for the pullback for (4) as well as new extensions for the projection of the 5th wave.
A few months back, I wrote an article here on tradingview on the psychology on the charts, it’s worth highlighting that here.
Click the link/image to view the article;
Nothing is 100% certain, but using these methods will help give you a better understanding of waves and swings, logic for pullbacks and reason for extension levels.
I hope this helps someone out here!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
The greatest teacher, failure is.Why I add drawings to my TA - mostly as I have time and enjoy entertaining on serious topics. Brighten up the world of @TradingView for you guys.
In the recent months since the Rocket call - (BTC Drop to 30k from 60k+) its been a slow steady burn on the weekly 3-4 move in terms of Elliott Wave. I have spent the time putting together some educational content as well as some of the defined logic for the drop itself, the moves down and of course the current situation.
If you haven't been following the post, here are a few to help you along.
1) Elliott Roadmap (click the image for a link to the post)
This is how it's playing out;
2) Wyckoff Distribution - during the move down, many people turned to "Wyckoff" as it was widely publicised by the media and the usual crypto GURU. The irony was, back in March they all had it as Re-Accumulation.
(Click image for link to post)
Taken this further and into stage 2 of the basics;
(Click link)
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3) I have written on the topic of assessment of alt coins, crypto in general and buying the dips. (click on the links again for posts)
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4) Streams; Myself or @Paul_Varcoe put out daily streams, Paul usually does the 10:30 AM (UK Time) and myself the 3:30 PM (UK Time) Recently we have been talking about the length of time, expectations and logic supporting the moves and dynamics.
www.tradingview.com
www.tradingview.com
Paul's stream are done as a viewers request series, so go ask him what you want.
If you dedicate the time to read through these articles above and watch the couple of streams posted here. It will all make sense, feel calm like Yoda. Enjoy your trading!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.