USDT vs USDC Reserve BreakdownUSDT (Tether) vs USDC (Circle) reserves☝️
USDT seems to be more diversified then USDC, as they’ve split their reserves into 7 different asset classes. Compared to USDC who are only diversified into 3.
USDT has a healthy 4% of their reserves in Gold, which is up 8% year to date SO FAR. They’re more likely to survive a liquidation process, compared to USDT when the next Crypto crash happens💥
BTC-M
The other side of the tradeTrading has this stigma attached to it, everyone thinks they can come and make their millions. The reality is, 90% of new traders lose 90% of their funds in 90 days.
I've talked for years about the negative side of trading (trust me, I've done this over 20 years) Trading is often perceived as a wonderful, fabulous lifestyle. Cars, yachts, jets and women! Probably fueled by films like the Wolf of Wall Street. But not many people like admitting to the other side of the traders lifestyle. Of course, it's nowhere near as glamorous - it sure as hell won't get social media likes or follows. But it's there and it's real!
There are a couple of main points that I want to touch on, especially for you newer traders coming to find your fortunes.
1) Trading can be boring! Yes, boring as shait. If you are used to having a 9-5, you do not realise the effects (good and bad) on having human interaction throughout the day. You might have a partner you live with, the family. But what about when they go to work or school? You are left with your own thoughts. Yes, this can be dangerous!!!
The issues can include lack of motivation, uncertainty in what to do, overthinking. On your bad days, you have nobody to comfort you and on your good days, you have nobody to share the excitement with! Joining communities can be a good fix here, providing you find a good one. This doesn't have to effect your trading, your strategy or anything else - but interaction could save you from the loneliness.
The solitary nature of trading can sometimes lead to feelings of isolation and loneliness. Without the support and camaraderie of others in a similar field, it can be challenging to share experiences, discuss strategies, or seek advice. Additionally, the pressure and stress of making high-stakes financial decisions can further contribute to a sense of isolation.
2) STRESS - Stress is a huge factor for a trader. Stress could also stem from the loneliness, stress when dealing with finance is an area where a lot of people suffer, traders and non traders alike. The issue is for traders, stress is often self inflicted.
Most new traders come to the market with a view of it's easy, fast paced, exciting and therefore have the perception of making it big.
If it was this easy, people wouldn't spend 7 years becoming doctors or lawyers. Instead they would follow the money! Come on, who wouldn't - Yachts n all.
It's this popular belief that usually drives traders into the stressful state which becomes the norm until they give up!
To counter the loneliness and try to make it big, traders (probably you) I know I did! look at indicators, try to take on as much info as possible! Which takes you down this path.
Indicators. there must be a holy grail, a silver bullet? 100% winning strategy? People waste so much time on retail indicators thinking they will be the one to find the edge. You would be better off having a trip to Vegas and playing the first slot machine you spot!
The next issue is - too much data or the attempt to obtain too much of it! I remember when my setup matched this below (if not more screens)
This is like trying to read 9 books at the same time whilst writing essays in 6 different languages. All of these factors will 100% add to your stress.
You might have anxiety when executing a trade, or feel the burden of stress whilst in a trade. Scared to see the numbers go red and too eager when they go green?! Yup been there, done that. So has every trader out there.
Stop feeling like this.
Creation of a strategy...
All you need to help combat these types of stresses, is find an edge. The edge could be very simple - from reading books, stepping away from the charts, viewing higher time frames, moving away from social media influencers. All the way through to mastering one instrument.
When you see indicators like the image above, what happens if two are in one direction and the rest in another? You start to argue with yourself, you miss good trades and you end up taking bad ones. This leads to stress and then you realise, yup your lonely!
What a cycle to be trapped in!
Now how about you flip the thinking here? Less charts to stare at, less indicators to confuse, more time to read, exercise or simply go play golf. Your edge does not need to be technical, fancy or shown on 48 screens.
I talked about this in the Tradingview live show the other evening.
Here's the link: www.tradingview.com
Sometimes less is more and this can combat the stress and golf is always a winner for loneliness.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
GOLD vs CRYPTOAre you an investor looking to make the best of your money? If so, you may be wondering if gold or cryptocurrency is the right investment for you. In this article, we will take a look at both gold and cryptocurrency and compare their pros and cons for investing. We will begin by defining and characterizing each asset, followed by examining the reasons to invest in them. Finally, we will provide a comparison of the pros and cons of investing in gold versus cryptocurrency, helping readers make an informed decision on which asset to invest in. So let’s get started!
Definition and Characteristics of GOLD
Gold is a precious metal with a yellow hue that is used for jewelry and coins. Its chemical element is Au (Aurum), and has an atomic number of 79. Gold is a soft metal, with a melting point of 1064.43 degrees Celsius, making it relatively easy to work with when crafting into jewelry or coins. It also has the distinct advantage of being chemically inert, meaning it resists corrosion and tarnishing over time, which allows it to retain its original beauty even after years of use.
The price of gold can be influenced by many factors, such as supply and demand in the market, as well as geopolitical events. For example, when there are wars or political unrest in certain regions of the world, investors tend to flock to gold as a safe haven asset which drives up the price due to high demand. Conversely, when markets are stable and economies are doing well, investors may prefer other assets such as stocks or bonds since they provide higher returns than gold does during these times. Furthermore, changes in technology can influence the price of gold; if there is an advancement that makes extracting gold easier or more efficient then this may result in lower prices for consumers due to increased supply.
In conclusion, gold has stood the test of time as one of the most valuable commodities on earth thanks to its characteristics such as its yellow hue, softness and resistance against corrosion and tarnishing. Additionally, its price can be influenced by various factors such as supply and demand in the market or geopolitical events. Investors should take all these factors into consideration before deciding whether or not to invest in gold.
Reasons to Invest in GOLD
Gold has been a reliable source of currency and value for centuries, making it a desirable option for those interested in diversifying their portfolios and protecting their wealth. With its intrinsically high liquidity, gold is also an excellent safe-haven asset that can provide stability in times of economic or political unrest. Additionally, gold often does well during periods of high inflation, providing investors with the means to safeguard themselves from financial losses in volatile markets.
Moreover, gold offers diversification benefits due to its low correlation with other assets such as stocks and bonds. This allows investors to spread out their risk across different types of investments while still maintaining strong returns on investments. The convenience to buy and sell gold quickly makes it an attractive asset for those seeking rapid access to cash without having to divest from other holdings first.
Furthermore, gold's accessibility makes it suitable for all kinds of investors regardless of budget size or experience level. There are many ways one can invest in gold including physical bullion coins, ETFs (exchange traded funds), or even owning stock in companies involved with mining or processing precious metals such as gold and silver. All these factors make investing in gold a viable choice for anyone looking for long-term portfolio growth and protection against market volatility.
Definition and Characteristics of CRYPTO
Cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that is secured by cryptography, making it nearly impossible to counterfeit or double-spend. It uses decentralized control, with no central authority or government controlling it. Cryptocurrency transactions are secure and anonymous, making them attractive to investors who value privacy.
The most popular cryptocurrency is Bitcoin, created in 2009. Other cryptocurrencies use blockchain technology and are often referred to as altcoins. Blockchain technology provides a secure and transparent way of storing transaction records which cannot be modified or tampered with. Transactions are also processed quickly and securely due to the distributed ledger system used by many cryptocurrencies.
Cryptocurrencies have several unique characteristics that make them an attractive choice for investors. They are highly liquid assets as they can be bought, sold, and exchanged for other currencies at any time of day. They also have low transaction costs compared to traditional payment methods such as credit cards and bank transfers. Additionally, since cryptocurrencies are not tied to any country’s economic conditions or policies, they provide greater stability than fiat currencies can offer in times of economic unrest or political turmoil.
However, there are some drawbacks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies that should be taken into account before investing in them. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile assets due to their speculative nature; prices can rise and fall sharply at any time without warning as traders attempt to profit from short-term price movements rather than long-term trends. Additionally, cryptocurrency exchanges do not offer the same level of consumer protection as traditional financial institutions; if you invest in a cryptocurrency exchange you should ensure it has sufficient security measures in place before entrusting it with your money. Finally, because of their pseudonymous nature – meaning users’ identities remain anonymous – cryptocurrencies can be used for illegal activities such as money laundering which could put off potential investors from entering the market altogether.
Reasons to Invest in CRYPTO
Cryptocurrency has become an increasingly sought-after investment option due to its unique properties. Decentralization of the network allows users complete control over their funds and transactions, making it more secure than traditional methods. Low transaction costs and fast processing times give cryptocurrencies an edge in terms of efficiency compared with other payments systems.
By investing in crypto, investors can diversify their portfolios and reduce the risk of market volatility associated with physical commodities like gold or silver. Moreover, depending on timing and individual decisions, cryptocurrency can offer high returns; many digital coins have seen huge gains due to their limited availability and strong demand.
Finally, there is potential for impressive capital appreciation in cryptocurrency due to its global acceptance and capacity for growth. Open markets around the world make price movements accessible at any given time - allowing savvy traders to capture profits from various markets if managed correctly. As a relatively new form of investment asset, those who choose to invest early are presented with greater opportunity for growth compared to other options available.
In summary, investing in cryptocurrency provides investors with a range of advantages that could lead to long-term portfolio growth or protection against inflationary risks. As such, it is important that all prospective investors conduct thorough research before committing funds into this asset class as there are both risks and rewards involved in this type of investment.
Comparative Pros and Cons of Investing in GOLD vs CRYPTO
Weighing up the pros and cons of investing in gold or cryptocurrency is a key factor to consider when it comes to making an informed decision on which asset type would best suit one's individual needs. Gold has traditionally been seen as a reliable source of currency and value, offering stability during times of economic or political unrest. Additionally, gold provides diversification benefits due to its low correlation with other assets while also having high liquidity and accessibility for all types of investors.
Conversely, crypto investments have become increasingly popular due to their unique properties such as decentralization of the network, low transaction costs, fast processing times, and potential for high returns. Investing in cryptocurrency can help diversify portfolios and reduce risk associated with market volatility; furthermore, crypto is not affected by inflationary pressures like gold is.
However, it's important to be aware that both gold and cryptocurrency have their own set of drawbacks that should be factored into any investment decision. For example, gold prices are more volatile than cryptocurrencies but also more stable over long periods of time; additionally, gold has higher liquidity than crypto meaning it’s easier to liquidate investments quickly if needed.
Ultimately investors should conduct thorough research into both asset types before deciding which will best meet their own personal goals when investing money. By being aware of the advantages and disadvantages outlined here they will be able to make an educated choice when selecting either gold or cryptocurrency as part of their portfolio.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
The Laws of cryopto markets.Law #1
All markets are inherently Fractal. Markets have many patterns. Fractals are similar in different instruments, different timeframes, and even in different time periods. Whether you look at a monthly chart or a 1-minute chart, the same principles and patterns work everywhere. If you remove the ticker or symbol of an asset and the time frame from the chart, you will hardly be able to determine the chart of which instrument you are analyzing. All markets move according to the "Russian Matryoshka" principle: balances within balances, ranges within ranges, transitions from one pattern to another.
Law #2.
At a certain point in time, markets are either in balance or moving in a trend. Markets can only be in one of these two states.
So what is balance, or as I sometimes call it, range? Financial Markets have long been designed to create a "bargain." In a balance sheet, buyers and sellers determine some kind of value for a commodity or trading instrument. It is in the balance that buyers and sellers come to a common denominator or agree on the valuation of the commodity they are trading. In a trend, on the contrary, both buyers and sellers disagree on the price and move away from the previously agreed value of the commodity. The reason for this can be anything: supply and demand, news background, some rumors, fundamental changes or whatever. Something has caused the price to get out of a certain balance. The value of the goods has changed, and if it has risen, it means that the buyers have become much more aggressive than the sellers, or vice versa. More aggressive means that buyers, for whatever reason, are willing to pay more than sellers offer. These "transactions" and aggressive transitions move the world markets until both buyers and sellers agree on the value of the commodity again. Then the "flat"/balance starts again, then the trend, and then the stop and balance again.
It is very important to understand that getting out of a Grand Balance creates a big trend. Understanding this can bring you either big profits or big losses if you start trading against such a trend. Trends and balances move in the dynamics of the markets and the matryoshka structure. This is what creates the context of the market.
Law #3.
Price moves in a series of impulses and corrections. It never flies up in a rocket (except for dumps on crypto or low-liquid assets), and it never rocks down (dumps on crypto). The move starts with a directional move and then stops at a point called a swing high on an upward momentum. After that, the price begins to move in the opposite direction. This is called a correction or "balancing" if price corrects against the trend. Often price also corrects over time or horizontally when the momentum "cools down," creating a horizontal balance or rerun, but not giving any correction to keep traders out of the trap
Even if sometimes it seems that on a large timeframe price is moving in a straight line upward, when you approach the 15-minute timeframe, you can see that price is going impulses and corrections.
Law #4.
Price takes all information into account effectively, but not perfectly. This "law" is one of the most controversial in trading, and the least understood. As a rule, market participants cannot find a common denominator in explanation of this rule. On the one hand there are supporters of the hypothesis of the market rationality, according to which the price instantly includes all information, news and rumors. They say that the price instantly reflects everything that is happening in the world from details to global fundamental changes.
But if it were true, then it would be impossible to be a profitable trader in the market. From my experience I am willing to argue with this, and there are so many traders who are making huge money in the market contrary to the rationality of the markets. In reality, markets are actually rational, price does include all information very quickly, but market participants are quite far from being rational. Very often the emotional characteristics of market participants cause the price to move too high or too low in the trend direction contrary to the real price of a particular asset. Greed and fear (FOMO-fear of missing out) can often be to blame. Of course, sooner or later the price of the asset will come back to its real value, but the fact is that markets are not entirely rational. That is sometimes the best opportunity to raise good money in a trade against the "crowd."
Wealth Unleashed: Wedge Pattern Power - Hidden Gem Revealed!Introduction : Are you looking to skyrocket your trading profits? Look no further! Today, we will uncover the hidden gem of trading patterns: the Wedge Pattern. This powerful tool has the potential to transform your trading strategy and help you achieve financial success. Let's dive into the world of wedge patterns and explore how you can capitalize on their power.
What are Wedge Patterns?
Wedge patterns are popular among traders due to their high probability of forecasting trend reversals. These patterns appear when the price of an asset consolidates between converging support and resistance lines. There are two primary types of wedge patterns: the rising wedge and the falling wedge.
Rising Wedge:
In an upward trend, the rising wedge is considered a bearish pattern. It forms when the price consolidates between an upward-sloping support line and an upward-sloping resistance line that are converging. As the price approaches the apex of the wedge, the upward momentum weakens, signaling a potential trend reversal to the downside.
Falling Wedge:
Contrary to the rising wedge, the falling wedge is a bullish pattern. It appears in a downward trend when the price consolidates between a downward-sloping support line and a downward-sloping resistance line that are converging. As the price nears the apex of the wedge, the downward momentum loses strength, indicating a possible trend reversal to the upside.
Trading Strategies:
To capitalize on the power of wedge patterns, follow these steps:
✅Identify the pattern: Observe the chart for converging support and resistance lines to spot a rising or falling wedge pattern.
✅Confirmation: Wait for a breakout from the wedge pattern, either above the resistance line (for falling wedges) or below the support line (for rising wedges).
✅Entry point: Open a long position after a breakout above the resistance line in a falling wedge, or a short position after a breakout below the support line in a rising wedge.
✅Stop-loss and take-profit: Set your stop-loss order below the breakout level (for falling wedges) or above the breakout level (for rising wedges). Establish your take-profit target at a level that aligns with your risk-reward ratio and trading plan.
Conclusion:
The wedge pattern is a hidden gem that can potentially boost your trading profits when used correctly. By mastering the art of identifying and trading wedge patterns, you can strengthen your technical analysis skills and increase your chances of success in the market. Remember, no single tool guarantees success, so always use additional technical indicators and maintain a disciplined approach to risk management. Happy trading!
Let's all jump inWhen you first start trading, everything seems like a good idea! You want to take every trade, use every indicator, watch every video and stream! Be like every influencer!
You get this feeling that you found something new, that you are the chosen one.
Unfortunately, it's for this same reason - 90% of new retail traders lose 90% of their money in the first 90 days...
Here are some key pointers to keep you safe!
1) Risk Management; learning to manage risk is key. If you want to gamble away your savings, Vegas is a lot more fun than the markets. Trust me, I speak from experience in both!
2) Create a plan that suits the type of lifestyle you have, if your working full time then scalping every couple of minutes is not doing you any favours. Take the long road. If you have time but don't want to stare at screens all day, then don't go scalping either. Not saying, don't do scalping or it's no good. Just emphasising, to pick your own style.
3) Don't follow influencers! I cover this topic a lot, people often ask me about Plan B or some other random guy. The issue is, these guys don't trade, they shill affiliate links and film 4 Youtube videos a day! They make their money by having followers and views. Just look at this below;
This was the message from the top! Where would you be now? Leveraged long positions?
This aspect has become, possibly one of the biggest factors for how people lose in the crypto space. You get sold a dream by following demo traders! Take our friend Carl, I called him out after seeing his demo trading on a video.
The guy is practically calling every top a pump and go long from here...
4) Follow the big players; not the whales, the institutions. When you know where their bias is, you have a lot more probability getting the direction correct.
5) Search for key levels; regardless of a technique - this could be supply and demand levels, Fib pullbacks, Wyckoff Schematics or Elliott Waves.
Don't trust only one, and please, please, please! Don't get lazy and just follow something you seen in a video. Do your own due diligence.
For example; I see 2 Elliott Wave scenarios here for Bitcoin.
This is the first option.
The second has a 4 where the 2 is of a move one degree lower. I've covered this in my streams.
It's knowing the logic behind the market sentiment that will help you figure out the general direction, this is why knowing the bigger players in the space is useful. As you can see from my post here - each call is on @tradingview
6) Do your own research to create your own plan, that should fit around your lifestyle or at least your current circumstance.
7) Repeat step 1 through 6.
These moves are choreographed, like you wouldn't believe. Don't believe me?
On the way up to the 65k all time high at the time; you could see the re-accumulation take place.
As we neared the extension levels, you could see the distribution sequence start. I covered this with a lesson on Wyckoff at the time.
These levels were already mapped out, months in advance of the actual move.
From there and up to the current all time high.
Why would it move like that? why would it stop where it did? These are the questions you need to ask, if you want to take trading seriously.
You won't qualify as a doctor or a lawyer after watching a handful of videos. You won't make it as a trader either if that's your expectation.
Finally,
Here's some logic for you - are we likely to reach $100k Bitcoin on this move up?
Monthly stochastic level would say otherwise...
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
MASTER THE MARKET WITH CONFIDENCE & DISCIPLINEIf you asked me to distill trading down to its simplest form, I would say that it is a pattern recognition numbers game. We use market analysis to identify the patterns, define the risk, and determine when to take profits. The trade either works or it doesn't. In any case, we go on to die next trade. It's that simple, but it's certainly not easy. In fact, trading is probably the hardest thing you'll ever attempt to be successful at. That's not because it requires intellect; quite the contrary! But because the more you think you know, the less successful you'll be.
Trading is hard because you have to operate in a state of not having to know, even though your analysis may turn out at times to be "perfectly" correct. To operate in a state of not having to know, you have to properly manage your expectations. To properly manage your expectations, you must realign your mental environment so that you believe without a shadow of a doubt in the five fundamental truths. Today, I am going to give you a trading exercise that will integrate these truths about the market at a functional level in your mental environment. In the process, I'll take you through the three stages of development of a trader. The first stage is the mechanical stage. In this stage, you:
1. Build the self-trust necessary to operate in an unlimited environment.
2. Learn to flawlessly execute a trading system.
3. Train your mind to think in probabilities (the five fundamental truths).
4. Create a strong, unshakeable belief in your consistency as a trader
Once you have completed this first stage, you can then advance to the subjective stage of trading. In this stage, you use anything you have ever learned about the nature of market movement to do
whatever it is you want to do. There's a lot of freedom in this stage, so you will have to learn how to monitor your susceptibility to make the kind of trading errors that are the result of any unresolved self-valuation issues I referred to in the last chapter. The third stage is the intuitive stage. Trading intuitively is the most advanced stage of development. It is the trading equivalent of earning a black belt in the martial arts. The difference is that you can't try to be intuitive, because intuition is spontaneous. It doesn't come from what we know at a rational level. The rational part of our mind seems to be inherently mistrustful of information received from a source that it doesn't understand. Sensing that something is about to happen is a form of knowing that is very different from anything we know rationally. I've worked with many traders who frequently had a very strong intuitive sense of what was going to happen next, only to be confronted with the rational part of themselves that consistently, argued for another course of action. Of course, if they had followed their intuition, they would have experienced a very satisfying outcome. Instead, what they ended up with was usually very unsatisfactory, especially when compared with what they otherwise perceived as possible. The only way I know of that you can try to be intuitive is to work at setting up a state of mind most conducive to receiving and acting on your intuitive impulses.
The mechanical stage of trading is specifically designed to build the kind of trading skills (trust,confidence, and thinking in probabilities) that will virtually compel you to create consistent results. I
define consistent results as a steadily rising equity curve with only minor draw downs that are the natural consequence of edges that didn't work. Other than finding a pattern that puts the odds of a
winning trade in your favor, achieving a steadily rising equity curve is a function of systematically eliminating any susceptibility you may have to making the kind of fear, euphoric or self-valuation
based trading errors I have described throughout this book. Eliminating the errors and expanding your sense of self-valuation will require the acquisition of skills that are all psychological in nature.
The skills are psychological because each one, in its purest form, is simply a belief. Remember that the beliefs we operate out of will determine our state of mind and shape our experiences in ways that
constantly reinforce what we already believe to be true. How truthful a belief is (relative to the environmental conditions) can be determined by how well it serves us; that is, the degree to which it
helps us satisfy our objectives. If producing consistent results is your primary objective as a trader, then creating a belief (a conscious, energized concept that resists change and demands expression) that "I am a consistently successful trader" will act as a primaiy source of energy that will manage your perceptions, interpretations, expectations, and actions in ways that satisfy the belief and, consequently, the objective. Creating a dominant belief that "I am a consistently successful trader" requires adherence to several principles of consistent success. Some of these principles will undoubtedly be in direct conflict with some of the beliefs you've already acquired about trading. If this is the case, then what you have is a classic example of beliefs that are in direct conflict with desire. The energy dynamic here is no different from what it was for the boy who wanted to be like the other children who were not afraid to play with dogs. He desired to express himself in a way that he found, at least initially, virtually impossible. To satisfy his desire, he had to step into an active process of transformation. His technique was simple: He tried as hard as he could to stay focused on what he was trying to accomplish and, little by little, he de-activated the conflicting belief and strengthened the belief that was consistent with his desire. At some point, if that is your desire, then you will have to step into the process of transforming yourself into a consistent winner. When it comes to personal transformation, the most important ingredients are your willingness to change, the clarity of your intent, and the strength of your desire. Ultimately, for this process to work, you must choose consistency over eveiy other reason or justification you have for trading. If all of these ingredients are sufficiently present, then regardless of the internal obstacles you find yourself up against, what you desire will eventually prevail.
The first step in the process of creating consistency is to start noticing what you're thinking, saying, and doing. Why? Because everything we think, say, or do as a trader contributes to and, therefore,
reinforces some belief in our mental system. Because the process of becoming consistent is psychological in nature, it shouldn't come as a surprise that you'll have to start paying attention to your various psychological processes. The idea is eventually to learn to become an objective observer of your own thoughts, words, and deeds. Your first line of defense against committing a trading error is to
catch yourself thinking about it. Of course, the last line of defense is to catch yourself in the act. If you don't commit yourself to becoming an observer to these processes, your realizations will always come after the experience, usually when you are in a state of deep regret and frustration.Observing yourself objectively implies doing it without judging about yourself. This might not be so easy for some of you to do considering the harsh, judgmental treatment you may have received from other people throughout your life. As a result, one quickly learns to associate any mistake with
emotional pain. No one likes to be in a state of emotional pain, so we typically avoid acknowledging what we have learned to define as a mistake for as long as possible. Not confronting mistakes in our everyday lives usually doesn't have the same disastrous consequences it can have if we avoid confronting our mistakes as traders. For example, when I am working with floor traders, the analogy I use to illustrate how precarious a situation they are in is to ask them to imagine themselves walking across a bridge over the Grand Canyon. The width of the bridge is directly related to the number of contracts they trade. So, for example, for a one-contract trader the bridge is very wide, say 20 feet. A bridge 20 feet wide allows you a great deal of tolerance for error, so you don't have to be inordinately careful or focused on each step you take. Still, if you do happen to stumble and trip over the edge, the drop to the canyon floor is one mile. I don't know how many people would walk across a narrow bridge with no guardrails, where the ground is a mile down, but my guess is relatively few. Similarly, few people will take the kinds of risks associated with trading on the floor of the futures exchanges. Certainly a one-contract floor trader can do a great deal of damage to himself, not unlike falling off a mile-high bridge.
But a one-contract trader also can give himself a wide tolerance for errors, miscalculations, or unusually violent market moves where he could find himself on the wrong side.
1. all our beliefs are in absolute harmony with our desires, and
2. all our beliefs are structured in such a way that they are completely consistent with what works from the environment's perspective.
Obviously, if our beliefs are not consistent with what works from the environments perspective, the potential for making a mistake is high, if not inevitable. We won't be able to perceive the appropriate
set of steps to our objective. Worse, we won't be able to perceive that what we want may not be available, or available in the quantity we desire or at the time when we want it. On the other hand, mistakes that are the result of beliefs that are in conflict with our objectives aren't always apparent or obvious. We know they will act as opposing forces, expressing their versions of the
truth on our consciousness, and they can do that in many ways. The most difficult to detect is a distracting thought that causes a momentary lapse in focus or concentration. On the surface this may not sound significant. But, as in the analogy of the bridge over the canyon, when there's a lot at stake, even a slightly diminished capacity to stay focused can result in an error of disastrous proportions. This principle applies whether it's trading, sporting events, or computer programming. When our intent is clear and undiminished by any opposing energy, then our capacity to stay focused is greater, and the more likely it is that we will accomplish our objective. You have to be able to monitor yourself to some degree, and that will be difficult to do if you have the
potential to experience emotional pain if and when you find yourself in the process of making an error.
If this potential exists, you have two choices:
1. You can work on acquiring a new set of positively charged beliefs about what it means to make a mistake,
along with de-activating any negatively charged beliefs that would argue otherwise or cause you to think less of yourself for making a mistake.
2. If you find this first choice undesirable, you can compensate for the potential to make errors by the way you set up your trading regime.
5 IMPOTANT TYPES OF ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERNS!Zigzag patterns are sharp declines in a bull rally or advances in a bear rally that substantially correct the price level of the previous Impulse patterns.
Zigzags may also be formed in a combination which is known as the double or triple zigzag, where two or three zigzags are connected by another corrective wave between them.‘
4. Flat:
The flat is another three-wave correction in which the sub-waves are formed in a 3-3-5 structure which is labelled as an A-B-C structure.
In the flat structure, both Waves A and B are corrective and Wave C is motive having 5 sub-waves.
This pattern is known as the flat as it moves sideways. Generally, within an impulse wave, the fourth wave has a flat whereas the second wave rarely does.
On the technical charts, most flats usually don’t look clear as there are variations on this structure.
A flat may have wave B terminate beyond the beginning of the A wave and the C wave may terminate beyond the start of the B wave. This type of flat is known as the expanded flat.
The expanded flat is more common in markets as compared to the normal flats as discussed above.
5. Triangle:
The triangle is a pattern consisting of five sub-waves in the form of a 3-3-3-3-3 structure, that is labelled as A-B-C-D-E.
This corrective pattern shows a balance of forces and it travels sideways.
The triangle can either be expanding, in which each of the following sub-waves gets bigger or contracting, that is in the form of a wedge.
The triangles can also be categorized as symmetrical, descending or ascending, based on whether they are pointing sideways, up with a flat top or down with a flat bottom.
The sub-waves can be formed in complex combinations. It may theoretically look easy to spot a triangle, but it may take a little practice to identify them in the market.
Bottomline:
As we have discussed above Elliott wave theory is open to interpretations in different ways by different traders, so are their patterns. Thus, traders should ensure that when they identify the patterns.
This chart is just for information
Never stop learning
I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you
How to determine a breakout level ?A breakout occurs when the price of an asset moves above or below a significant level of support or resistance. For traders, identifying a breakout can be a profitable opportunity to enter or exit a trade.
Here are some steps to help you identify a breakout:
Identify the key support or resistance level - This is usually a level where the price has previously bounced off several times.
Look for a strong momentum in the direction of the breakout - This can be indicated by a sudden increase in volume, or a significant move in the price.
Wait for the breakout confirmation - This is when the price moves decisively above or below the support or resistance level.
Confirm the breakout with other technical indicators - Use other technical indicators, such as moving averages or trend lines, to confirm the breakout and determine the strength of the trend.
Place your trade - Once you have confirmed the breakout, you can enter a long or short position, depending on the direction of the breakout.
Remember that not all breakouts are successful, and it's important to use proper risk management techniques, such as setting stop-loss orders, to limit your losses in case the trade goes against you.
Tradingview Volume toolsI've been using Tradingview for just over 8 years now. When I initially started using it I was transitioning from using Footprint tools. I would use techniques that in essence allowed you to see inside a candle. Coupled with techniques such as "DOM" Depth of Market and Cumulative Delta. After a while you get to see some of this stuff without the need of indicators.
Tradingview have steadily added various tools to the platform and with a little help from being able to code your own tools it's made it an interesting space to play.
So here's a quick overview on the abilities, encase you have yet to explore. This is not a lesson on volume as such, just educating you as to what the possibilities can be.
Most would have seen or at least know about the volume on the X axis.
This simply gives an idea of the happening of that particular candle, of course things can alter or yield different results based on settings and time frames.
we've taken the time to incorporate this simple volume in one of our own indicators. Which is coupled with a Stochastic and a few other bits.
It can also be used standalone for spotting divergence for example. You can see how the volume up and price up yet in the third price move up, volume has lowered.
There are also various styles of showing this volume data - one such tool is Weiss waves.
These are great in conjunction with techniques such as Elliott Waves and Wyckoff. I've shown this over the last two years here on TradingView and both of these techniques have been very useful on Bitcoin during this time.
I mentioned CVD the cumulative Volume Delta, here you can see this under the Weiss Wave indicator. Like I said, have a play around with these on your own charts. You will spot some interesting things once you get to know them. Try various instruments as well as timeframes.
More recently I posted a video on using Chat GPT to build a pinescript indicator. Here's the link to that post.
Well, I've taken that a few steps further.
What started as an idea in terms of using Footprint, X axis volume and then what's called periodic volume profile. I personally like to turn the bars/candles off when I got this on.
Here's another view - this is the session volume profile and periodic volume combined without the candles being visible.
This new indicator extracts various pieces of data and paints key levels based on my old trading style. As you can see today, this is showing like a magnet where the key levels in Bitcoin are likely to be. There's a bit more to it than that but in essence, its what I am showing here.
To finish with you have two other tools here on Tradingview - one which is fixed range volume, just as it says on the tin. You can see volume inside a range you determine.
I have used a low and a high here to find the PoC - Point of Control.
Then finally, you have visible range; this I tend to use less personally, but I know many people like it. This allows you to view the volume profile based on what you have visible on the chart. As you can imagine, as you zoom in n out, it can change.
Like I said, this is not a lesson on each tool - it's an intro to, for you to spend the time to play around with these tools. Feel free to ask questions below.
Enjoy the rest of the week!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Managing Psychological Resistance in Bitcoin TradingBitcoin has been gaining popularity in recent years as a digital currency, and its price has been subject to fluctuations. As traders look for ways to profit from Bitcoin, understanding psychological resistance becomes an important factor in trading decisions.
What is Psychological Resistance?
Psychological resistance is a level at which traders become hesitant to buy an asset, such as Bitcoin, due to a perceived high price. This level is not based on any technical analysis or fundamental data but is a result of human behavior and emotions.
For example, if the price of Bitcoin reaches HKEX:50 ,000, some traders may hesitate to buy it as they perceive the price to be high, which creates a psychological resistance level.
How can Psychological Resistance Affect the Price of Bitcoin?
When the price of Bitcoin reaches a psychological resistance level, traders tend to take profits or sell their positions, causing the price to drop. This can result in a short-term correction in the price of Bitcoin.
However, if the price is able to break through the psychological resistance level, it can result in a significant price increase. This is because traders who were previously hesitant to buy may now jump in, driving the price up.
Strategies for Trading Psychological Resistance:
1. Use Fibonacci Retracement: Fibonacci retracement levels can be used to identify psychological resistance levels. Traders can use the retracement levels to enter or exit their positions.
Fibonacci retracement is a popular technical analysis tool used to identify potential levels of support and resistance. The tool uses horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before the price continues in the original direction.
2. Use Moving Averages: Moving averages can be used to identify trends and potential resistance levels. Traders can use the moving averages to identify potential entry or exit points.
Moving averages are a popular technical analysis tool used to identify the trend of an asset's price. Traders can use the moving average to identify potential entry or exit points.
3. Use Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands can be used to identify potential support and resistance levels. Traders can use the bands to identify potential entry or exit points.
Bollinger Bands are a popular technical analysis tool that uses a moving average and two standard deviations to identify potential levels of support and resistance. Traders can use the bands to identify potential entry or exit points.
4. Use Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI can be used to identify potential overbought or oversold conditions. Traders can use the RSI to identify potential entry or exit points.
The Relative Strength Index is a momentum oscillator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. Traders can use the RSI to identify potential entry or exit points.
5. Use Volume: High volume at a psychological resistance level can indicate that traders are hesitant to buy at that price, which can result in a price correction. Traders can use volume to identify potential entry or exit points.
Volume is a measure of the number of shares or contracts traded in a specific asset. High volume at a psychological resistance level can indicate that traders are hesitant to buy at that price, which can result in a price correction. Traders can use volume to identify potential entry or exit points.
Psychological resistance is an important concept that traders need to understand when trading Bitcoin. By using technical indicators such as Fibonacci retracement, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, RSI, and volume, traders can identify potential entry or exit points at psychological resistance levels. However, traders should also be aware that psychological resistance is not an exact science, and the price of Bitcoin can be influenced by a variety of other factors such as market news, economic events, and investor sentiment. Therefore, it is important for traders to use a combination of technical analysis and fundamental analysis to make informed trading decisions.
In addition, traders should also be aware of potential psychological support levels, which are levels where traders may become more confident in buying an asset due to a perceived low price. These levels can also affect the price of Bitcoin and should be considered in trading decisions.
Overall, psychological resistance is an important concept that traders need to understand when trading Bitcoin. By using technical indicators and analyzing market sentiment, traders can identify potential entry or exit points at psychological resistance levels. However, it is important to remember that no trading strategy is foolproof and traders should always practice risk management and conduct thorough analysis before making any trades.
BTCUSD : Technical Indicators and Step-by-Step StrategyHere's a step-by-step strategy for using the 15-minute BTCUSD chart:
Step 1: Set up your chart with the chosen indicators
1. Add the 50-period (blue) and 200-period (red) Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) to the Bitcoin price chart.
2. Add Bollinger Bands with a 20-period moving average (green) and 2 standard deviations.
3. Add a volume chart below the price chart.
4. Add the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) in a separate panel below the volume chart.
5. Add the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) with periods of 12, 26, and 9 in another separate panel.
Step 2: Analyze the trend and identify support and resistance levels
1. Suppose the Bitcoin price is above the 50 and 200 EMA, indicating an overall uptrend. If it's below both, it signals a downtrend.
2. For example, if the price bounces off the 50 EMA multiple times, this level acts as a support in an uptrend. In a downtrend, it acts as resistance.
Step 3: Use Bollinger Bands to identify buying and selling opportunities
1. On February 10th, 12:45 PM, the Bitcoin price touches the lower Bollinger Band and then moves upwards, representing a potential buying opportunity.
Similarly, on February 11th, 4:15 PM, the price touches the upper Bollinger Band and then reverses, signaling a selling opportunity.
Step 4: Analyze volume
1. On February 10th, 1:00 PM, a significant increase in volume corresponds to a strong upward price movement, suggesting bullish activity.
Step 5: Analyze momentum and trend indicators
1. On February 11th, 9:30 AM to 10:45 AM, the Bitcoin price makes higher lows while the RSI shows lower lows, indicating a bullish divergence, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
2. On February 11th, 11:30 AM, the MACD line (blue) crosses above the signal line (orange), indicating a potential shift to an uptrend.
Step 6: Synthesize the information and make a decision
1. Using the previous examples, a possible trading strategy could be to buy when the price touches the lower Bollinger Band and the RSI shows bullish divergence during an overall uptrend, and sell when the price touches the upper Bollinger Band during an uptrend.
2. Entry points: February 10th, 12:45 PM (buy) and February 11th, 4:15 PM (sell). Set stop-loss and take-profit levels based on your risk tolerance and trading plan.
Please note that these examples are for illustrative purposes and past performance does not guarantee future results. It is essential to adapt your analysis and trading strategy to changing market conditions and develop a comprehensive understanding of these indicators to make informed decisions.
Crypto Analysis: A Comprehensive Technical & Fundamental GuideHere is a detailed step-by-step guide on how to use the technical and fundamental indicators to analyze cryptocurrencies:
Step 1: Choose a reliable trading or charting platform
Select a trading or charting platform that allows you to access and utilize the technical and fundamental indicators mentioned. I personally use and recommend TradingView for its reliability and ease of use in cryptocurrency analysis.
Step 2: Set up your chart
Configure your chart with your chosen cryptocurrency's price data, typically using the daily timeframe for a broader perspective. You can adjust the timeframe according to your preferred trading style (short-term, medium-term, or long-term).
Step 3: Apply technical indicators
Add the following technical indicators to your chart:
a. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA): Use three EMAs with different periods (e.g., 20, 50, and 100 days) to identify short, medium, and long-term trends. Look for crossovers between the EMAs as potential buy or sell signals.
b. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Apply the MACD indicator with standard settings (12, 26, 9). Look for crossovers between the MACD line and the signal line as potential buy or sell signals. Additionally, watch for bullish or bearish divergence between the MACD and price.
c. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Apply the RSI indicator with a 14-day period. Monitor the RSI levels for overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) conditions, which could signal potential price reversals.
Step 4: Analyze the cryptocurrency market fundamentals
Evaluate the following fundamental factors:
a. Adoption: Research the current rate of cryptocurrency adoption, including new users, institutional interest, and use cases. Increasing adoption typically indicates a positive long-term outlook.
b. Regulation: Stay informed about the latest regulatory developments and legal frameworks that could impact your chosen cryptocurrency's value and market perception.
c. Utility: Assess the cryptocurrency's current utility, such as its use as a store of value, a medium of exchange, or as a hedge against traditional financial markets.
Step 5: Analyze the cryptocurrency network
Examine key network metrics, such as:
a. Hash rate: A higher hash rate indicates a strong and secure network. Monitor the hash rate for consistent growth or sudden drops, which could impact the cryptocurrency's price.
b. Mining difficulty: Observe the mining difficulty as an indicator of network security and miner participation. Higher mining difficulty generally implies a more secure network.
c. Transactions: Track the number of daily transactions on the cryptocurrency network, as increased transaction activity may correlate with higher demand and network utility.
Step 6: Synthesize your analysis
Combine your technical and fundamental analyses to create a comprehensive understanding of your chosen cryptocurrency's current market conditions. Look for confluence between the technical indicators and the fundamental factors to identify potential trading opportunities or long-term investment decisions.
Step 7: Continuously monitor and adjust
Regularly update your analysis to stay informed about changes in the market or network conditions. Adapt your trading or investment strategy accordingly.
Keep in mind that this is just one example of a method that combines technical and fundamental indicators. The effectiveness of this method will depend on various factors, including market conditions, your trading or investment strategy, and your ability to interpret and act on the provided information. Always exercise due diligence and research before making any trading or investment decisions.
Trading Psychology: How Does Your Mind Matter In Making Money?Hello traders, today we will talk about Trading Psychology
The most famous book on trading psychology, “Tradingpsychologie” aptly remarks, ‘The greatest enemy of the trader is fear. He who is afraid loses!’.
As a trader, you must have gone through emotions such as fear, greed, regret, hope, overconfidence, doubt, nervousness etc.
While every trader goes through this emotional rollercoaster, a successful trader knows that it’s never a good idea to let your emotions influence your investment decisions.
Not letting your emotions affect your trading decisions is the real meaning of trading psychology!
In this article, we will educate you on the meaning of trading psychology. We will also reveal trading tips and tricks to mentally prepare you to trade with confidence!
So, let’s begin!
What is Trading Psychology?
Trading psychology or investor psychology refers to the trader’s emotional and mental state which dictates their trading actions.
Some of these emotions like hope, confidence are helpful and should be embraced. But emotions like fear and greed must be contained. Another emotion that is very common in financial markets is the fear of missing out or FOMO.
It is essential to understand and develop a sharp mindset along with knowledge and experience to become a successful trader.
Let us take a look at the various psychological factors that affect a trader’s mindset and some pro-tips to deal with them.
1. Fear
Fear is a natural reaction that we sense when something is at risk. While trading, risks could occur in many forms –
Some bad news about the stocks or the market
Placing a trade and realising it’s not going the way you had hoped
Fear of loss of capital
Traders generally overreact and tend to liquidate their holdings because of fear. A strong trading psychology is when traders do not let fear dictate their buy/sell strategy.
What should you do?
Every trader must first understand what they are afraid of and why? Reflect on these issues ahead of time so you can quickly identify the problem and find a solution. Your focus should be to not let the fear of loss refrain you from making profit.
2. Greed
Greed enters when you desire excess profits. Rome was not built in a day and neither will your stock market fortune. If you find yourself on a winning streak, then book your profits and move on. Majority of the time, your greed will turn a winning streak into a disaster!
What should you do?
To combat greed, you should have a predefined profit booking level. Even before you enter a trade, define your stop-loss and book-profit levels to avoid being swayed by greed.
A sound trading psychology is when you are content with your profits and do not chase irrational profits.
3. Regret
Regret in trading comes in two ways.
A trader could regret placing a trade that didn’t work or
Regret not placing a trade that could have worked.
A trading psychology based on regret can be dangerous for a trader as it may result in placing wrong trades.
What should you do?
The best way to avoid a regretful trading psychology is to accept that you can’t have all the opportunities in the market. The equation in the stock markets is very simple – You win some; you lose some.
Once you accept this rule, your trading psychology will automatically change for the better.
4. Hope
Investors often think that trading is gambling. It’s because they hope to win all the time and when they don’t, they get dejected.
What should you do?
To become a successful trader, you must have a solid trading psychology which is not dependent on hope. If you keep hoping for things to change in the near future, you’re putting your entire investment at risk.
Don’t let hope keep you invested in a loss making trade. Be practical, and book your losses at the correct time.
To attain and maintain success as a trader, you have to work hard to cultivate a mindset! Let’s see how trading psychology helps you cultivate a better mindset!
How to Improve Your Trading Psychology
1. Get Yourself in the Right Mindset
Before you even start your trading day, simply remind yourself that markets are never constant. You will have some good days and some bad days, but the bad days too shall pass.
Another effective strategy to improve your trading psychology is to give yourself time. You are not going to make a fortune on your very first trading day. You need to spend time and efforts in creating a rock solid trading strategy which isn’t affected by the market sentiments.
While you cannot completely eliminate emotions from trading, the goal is to reduce the extent of emotions controlling your trading psychology.
2. Have a Great Knowledge Base
One of the best ways to improve your trading psychology is to increase your knowledge and trading skills. Having a strong knowledge base of the stock market is key to defeating negative trading psychology. Remember, knowledge is power!
3. Remind yourself that you are Trading in Real Money
When you’re trading online, it’s easy to forget that the numbers on your screen actually represent real money. There’s nothing wrong in risking your money in hopes of generating returns. But remember to be cautious and make smarter investment decisions.
4. Observe the Habits of Successful Traders
Stock market is unique because it treats each trader differently. When it comes to trading, you should be aware of what your peers are doing, not to copy them but to learn from them.
By observing the positive characteristics of successful traders and inculcating few habits or strategies into your own trading, you can improve your trading strategies manyfolds.
5. Practice! Practice! Practice!
Last but not the least, practice is the best and most reliable way to gain mental strength. It helps you improve your trading psychology over time as you build well practised trading strategies and are well prepared for any ups or downs.
Final Thoughts
Understanding trading psychology and implementing it is a time consuming process. You have to continuously refine your trading psychology over long time periods.
To sum up, remember these three golden principles of trading psychology
Be disciplined
Be flexible
Never stop learning
I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you
Five Demons that lead to Trading Losses
The greatest adversary of a trader is not the market, nor the constantly changing market trends, but rather ourselves.
Therefore, today I will share my trading experience and explain the five most difficult demons to overcome in our trading journey.
1.The first demon is greed.
Greed is the biggest demon in trading. Where there is greed, there is an abyss. It can be said that 90% of psychological problems in trading stem from greed.
What are the manifestations of greed?
Not wanting to miss out on market movements and trying to buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point is greed.
Not wanting to miss out on any market movements of any kind is greed.
Pursuing the perfect trading system is greed.
Even not willing to accept losses is greed.
Pursuing high-risk trading for quick profits is even more greedy.
Childishly pursuing financial freedom through trading is the greediest of greed.
There are too many examples like this.
2.Heart demon 2: Fear
Many people have poor execution in trading, mainly due to fear.
What are the manifestations of fear in trading?
Being bullish on a market but not daring to open a position due to fear of loss. Even when the trading plan is clearly defined, entry and exit rules are obvious, and position sizing is appropriate, when the conditions for opening a position are met, the button for opening the position cannot be clicked and the opportunity is missed.
Having the correct position and being profitable but not daring to hold the position, afraid of losing profit due to the fluctuation of the market, resulting in hasty liquidation.
The inability to set a stop loss is also a manifestation of fear, afraid of not being able to recover losses.
Using smaller and smaller position sizes, finally opening a position of 0.01 lots, but still feeling conflicted.
3.Heart demon 3: Short-sightedness
Traders must have a perspective. I often say that we should examine trading from an aerial perspective.
Trading is like a maze. Only when we stand at a high point and overlook the maze can we find the correct way out. We must not plunge into the maze.
What are the manifestations of short-sightedness?
When a trading system is initially profitable, you think it's great; when losses occur, you immediately want to give up or change the trading system's settings.
Unbeknownst to many, profits and losses come from the same source. Trading systems are bound to have matching and non-matching market conditions. Dismissing a trading system due to short-term gains or losses is a manifestation of short-sightedness.
On the other hand, a trading system making money for a period of time does not necessarily mean that the system will continue to be profitable. Profitability is only a result of matching market conditions. Overvaluing a trading system due to temporary profits is also a manifestation of short-sightedness.
Therefore, many people eagerly show me their profitable trading systems of one or three months, but I maintain a conservative attitude and suggest we discuss the issue again after one year.
4.Heart Demon Four: Anger
When it comes to anger, everyone can easily understand that it is a significant issue not only in trading but also in work and daily life. Under the influence of anger, a person's IQ is reduced to only 30% of its normal level. Our judgment of trading results and risk perception will be greatly biased.
Specifically, anger manifests as frequent trading after losses, heavy positions, and expecting to make a profit to recover previous losses. However, the heavy position trading profits cannot be sustained, and when the market does not follow expectations, the trader may be reluctant to cut losses, resulting in margin call and a vicious cycle.
5.Heart Demon Five: Arrogance
The trends we trade are the future, and humans are powerless in predicting the future. Even a successful trader may not be able to judge the direction more accurately than a primary school student based on a single chart. This is due to the randomness of market trends, which no one can change.
Here's the problem: some people always spot market trends and get good returns during a certain period, which causes them to become arrogant. It is like some novice traders who, after a few short-term profits, begin to have great confidence in their trading ability. This is what we call the "beginner's luck," which is followed by losses due to luck.
These are the five heart demons that lead to trading losses. Many of us have experienced these errors. If you are also troubled by these heart demons, we hope you can face your problems and slowly change.
The characteristics and advantages and disadvantages of BitcoinCurrency Features:
Decentralization: Bitcoin is the first distributed virtual currency that is entirely user-driven, without the presence of any central bank. Decentralization ensures the security and freedom of Bitcoin.
Global circulation: Bitcoin can be managed on any computer connected to the Internet. Anyone, anywhere in the world, can mine, purchase, sell, or receive Bitcoin.
Exclusive ownership: Controlling Bitcoin requires a private key, which can be isolated and stored on any storage medium. No one can access it except the user.
Low transaction fees: Bitcoin can be sent out for free, but a transaction fee of about 1 bit cent will be charged for each transaction to ensure faster execution.
No hidden costs: As a means of payment from A to B, Bitcoin does not have complex limits and procedures. Payment can be made as long as the recipient's Bitcoin address is known.
Cross-platform mining: Users can explore the computing power of different hardware on various platforms.
Advantages:
1.Complete decentralization with no issuing agency, and therefore it is impossible to manipulate the issuance of Bitcoin. Its issuance and circulation are achieved through open-source P2P algorithms.
2.Anonymity, tax exemption, and unregulated.
3.Robustness. Bitcoin relies entirely on P2P networks with no issuing center, making it immune to external shutdown. Bitcoin prices may fluctuate and crash, and many governments may declare it illegal, but Bitcoin and its massive P2P network will not disappear.
4.Borderless and cross-border. In cross-border remittances, funds go through layers of foreign exchange control institutions, and transaction records are recorded by multiple parties. However, if Bitcoin is used for transactions, one can directly input the digital address, click the mouse, wait for the P2P network to confirm the transaction, and a large amount of funds will be transferred. There is no need to go through any control institution, nor will any cross-border transaction records be left behind.
5.Difficulty for copycats to survive. Since the Bitcoin algorithm is completely open-source, anyone can download the source code, modify some parameters, and recompile it to create a new P2P currency. However, these copycat currencies are fragile and susceptible to 51% attacks. Anyone who controls 51% of the computing power of a P2P currency network can manipulate transactions and currency values, dealing a devastating blow to the P2P currency. Many copycat currencies die in this stage. The Bitcoin network is robust enough, and the CPU/GPU required to control 51% of the computing power of the Bitcoin network will be astronomical.
Disadvantages of Bitcoin
1.Fragility of trading platforms. While the Bitcoin network is robust, Bitcoin trading platforms are fragile. These platforms are typically websites, which are susceptible to hacking attacks or closure by regulatory authorities.
2.Long transaction confirmation times. When installing a Bitcoin wallet for the first time, it can take a significant amount of time to download historical transaction data blocks. Additionally, when transacting with Bitcoin, some time is needed to confirm the accuracy of the data by interacting with the peer-to-peer network, and the transaction is only considered complete after being confirmed by the entire network.
3.Extreme price volatility. Due to the involvement of numerous speculators, the exchange rate between Bitcoin and fiat currencies is highly volatile, making Bitcoin more suitable for speculation than anonymous transactions.
4.Lack of understanding by the general public, and resistance from traditional finance professionals. While active internet users understand the principles of peer-to-peer networks and recognize that Bitcoin cannot be manipulated or controlled artificially, the general public does not understand it, and many people cannot even distinguish between Bitcoin and Q coins. While the absence of an issuing authority is a benefit of Bitcoin, traditional finance professionals see such a currency as worthless.
Understanding the Crypto Market CapThe cryptocurrency market has experienced significant growth but more recently saw a huge decline as sentiment soured due to several scams, insolvencies and a lack of regulation.
Bitcoin, the first and most well-known cryptocurrency, has played a significant role in this growth. In this analysis, we will explore the relationship between the crypto market cap and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market has been significant, with the market capitalization of Bitcoin accounting for over 40% of the total crypto market cap.
As a result, changes in Bitcoin's price often have a ripple effect on the entire crypto market. When Bitcoin's price rises, it can create a positive sentiment across the market, leading to increased demand for other cryptocurrencies and driving up the total crypto market cap.
Conversely, when Bitcoin's price falls, it can lead to a decrease in demand for other cryptocurrencies, causing the total crypto market cap to decline.
There are several factors that influence the relationship between the crypto market cap and Bitcoin.
One of the most significant factors is the overall sentiment toward cryptocurrencies. When the sentiment is positive, investors are more likely to invest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, leading to an increase in the total crypto market cap.
However, negative sentiment towards cryptocurrencies can have the opposite effect, leading to a decrease in demand and a decline in the total crypto market cap.
Another factor that can influence the relationship between the crypto market cap and Bitcoin is regulation.
Regulatory changes, such as bans on cryptocurrencies or increased oversight, can have a significant impact on the market. For example, when China announced a crackdown on cryptocurrency mining and trading in May 2021, it led to a sharp decline in Bitcoin's price and a subsequent drop in the total crypto market cap.
Furthermore, technological advancements and developments in the crypto space can also influence the relationship between the crypto market cap and Bitcoin.
For example, the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) has led to the development of new blockchain-based financial products and services, driving demand for cryptocurrencies and increasing the total crypto market cap.
So, what does this mean for investors and traders?
Understanding the relationship between the crypto market cap and Bitcoin can be useful in making informed investment decisions.
When considering investments in cryptocurrencies, investors should carefully monitor the price of Bitcoin and its impact on the total crypto market cap. Additionally, keeping an eye on sentiment, regulation, and technological advancements can help investors make more informed decisions.
However, it is important to remember that the crypto market is highly volatile and can experience rapid price movements, making risk management strategies crucial for success in this market.
🔥WHY ALTCOINS FOLLOW THE BTC PRICE? A FULL GUIDE FOR TRADERS!🔥Hi, friends! I will explain why altcoins are following BTC and how traders can take advantage of this idea.
The first and main crypto is Bitcoin. I am sure that 99% of traders/investors discover crypto through BTC.
📊THE 4 MAIN REASONS WHY ALTCOINS FOLLOW BTC:
🔥 Bitcoin is the most influential cryptocurrency: As the first cryptocurrency and the largest by market capitalization, Bitcoin has a significant impact on the entire cryptocurrency market. The price of Bitcoin often affects the prices of other cryptocurrencies, and it can cause other altcoins to rise or fall in value.
Therefore, it's essential to keep a close eye on Bitcoin's price if you're trading altcoins, as it can indicate market trends and potential opportunities.
🔥 Altcoin prices are correlated with Bitcoin: Many altcoins have a strong correlation with Bitcoin's price movement. This means that if Bitcoin's price is rising, it's likely that the value of altcoins will also increase. However, if Bitcoin's price falls, altcoins are also likely to experience a decline in value.
As such, tracking Bitcoin's price can provide valuable insights into the behavior of other cryptocurrencies in the market .
🔥 Bitcoin can act as a safe haven asset: During times of market volatility or economic uncertainty, Bitcoin has historically acted as a safe haven asset. This means that investors tend to flock to Bitcoin as a way to store value and protect their investments.
As a result, Bitcoin's price can rise during times of crisis, and this can have an impact on altcoin prices as well. By monitoring Bitcoin's price, traders can gain insight into market sentiment and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
🔥 Bitcoin is a market indicator: Bitcoin's price is often used as an indicator of the overall health of the cryptocurrency market. For instance, if Bitcoin's price is rising, it may indicate that the market is bullish and that investors are optimistic about the future of cryptocurrency.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin's price is falling, it may suggest that the market is bearish and that investors are taking a cautious approach.
By keeping an eye on Bitcoin's price, traders can gain a better understanding of market trends and make more informed decisions when trading altcoins.
✅HOW TRADERS CAN USE THIS BTC-ALTCOIN PATTERN
I made 4 simple comparisons for you to show it. I used Bitcoin (as #1 crypto) and ETH (#1 altcoin). Take a look on the chart and the numbers on it.
🚩 1st case. If BTC falls at the beginning of the bull market = altcoins fall so much.
In the first case BTC fell by -60-65% and ETH fell by -70-75%. It's not too much for ETH, but you can check the other alts. They fell by -85-90%.
🚩 2nd case. After the long consolidations altcoin grow higher than BTC.
BTC made +35%, but ETH made +81%. It's 2 times bigger than BTC.
🚩 3rd case. BTC and altcoins during the rally grow equally. Except for some skyrocketing crypto as AXS, SOL and etc, of course.
+452% for BTC and +480% for ETH.
🚩 4th case. New ATH is a time for altcoins' pumps. This is the time when they grow by 300-400% in a few weeks.
As you see, BTC made +5%, but ETH +157%!
🔥SUMMARY. So, the 2nd case (after the consolidation) and 4th case (at the new ATH) is the best to catch strong altcoins movements for a hundred percent% and 40-50 or even 100RR. Now you can use it in your trading, cause you will know what BTC do now and how it will affect altcoins.
I hope this idea was useful for you. Do you have your own notes? Write your most profitable BTC-atlcoins patterns in the comments!
💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
How to Use the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a popular technical indicator used by traders to identify trends and make informed trading decisions. In this TradingView idea, we will discuss how to use the EMA in your technical analysis.
Step 1: Understanding the EMA
The EMA is a type of moving average that gives greater weight to more recent prices, making it more responsive to changes in the market. The EMA is calculated by taking the average of a set number of price data points over a specified time period, with more weight given to recent data points.
Example:
Let's say you are using 20-day and 50-day EMAs to identify trends and potential buy/sell signals. You notice that the 20-day EMA is above the 50-day EMA, indicating that the stock is in an uptrend. You then wait for the price of the stock to pull back to the 20-day EMA before buying in, as this could provide a good entry point. Conversely, if the price falls below the 20-day EMA, this could be a potential sell signal.
Step 2: Identifying Trends with the EMA
One of the primary uses of the EMA is to identify trends in the market. When the price of an asset is above the EMA, it is considered to be in an uptrend, while when the price is below the EMA, it is considered to be in a downtrend. Traders can use the EMA to identify potential buy and sell signals based on the direction of the trend.
Example:
Let's say you are using the 50-day EMA as a dynamic support or resistance level. You notice that the price of the pair has been consistently bouncing off the 50-day EMA, indicating that it is acting as a support level. You then decide to go long on the pair when the price approaches the 50-day EMA, with a stop loss below the EMA in case the price breaks through.
Step 3: Using Multiple EMAs for Confirmation
Traders can also use multiple EMAs to confirm trends and potential buy and sell signals. For example, using a shorter-term EMA, such as a 20-day EMA, in conjunction with a longer-term EMA, such as a 50-day EMA, can provide a more comprehensive view of the trend and potential trading opportunities.
Example:
Let's say you are using the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day EMAs to confirm trends and potential buy/sell signals. You notice that the 10-day EMA is above the 20-day EMA, which is also above the 50-day EMA, indicating that the trend is up. You then wait for the price of gold to pull back to the 10-day or 20-day EMA before buying in, as this could provide a good entry point. Conversely, if the price falls below the 50-day EMA, this could be a potential sell signal.
Step 4: Using the EMA as a Dynamic Support or Resistance Level
In addition to identifying trends, the EMA can also be used as a dynamic support or resistance level. When the price of an asset is approaching the EMA, traders can use the EMA as a potential support or resistance level, depending on the direction of the trend.
In conclusion, the EMA is a versatile and powerful technical indicator that can be used for a variety of trading strategies. You don't need a complex setup to be successful in trading, just using simple indicator such as EMA can make trading highly profitable.
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🔥SECRET METHOD TO IDENTIFY LONG TERM TREND:VOLUME PROFILE+POC🚀🔥Hi, friends! Trend is the most important thing in trading, so you have to know how to identify it and be a successful trader.
In this idea, I will explain to you the most easiest and useful method for trend identification. I know that you haven't heard about that.
📊 THE INSTRUMENTS WE USE TO IDENTIFY THE TREND:
🔥 Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP)
🔥 Point of control or POC
🔥 Bitcoin monthly candles/bars. They help to identify the long-term trend without local noise
✅ IF YOU WANT TO UNDERSTAND IF THE BULL MARKET BEGINS AND CONTINUES, YOU NEED:
1. Use the Volume Profile. Just pick it at the left side of the TradingView chart at "Prediction and Measurement Tools".
2. Stretch the volume profile on a monthly candle/bar.
3. After this you will see the Point of Control (POC, red line) which shows you where the most liquidity is concentrated.
4. If the price continues to close above the POC each month, this means that we have a healthy bull market.
5*. If you see that the monthly candle is close below the POC, you need to be more careful with your trends. This can indicate about a trend change, but it happens at least 1 time in the middle of the bull market.
Check the precious bull market. Thats work perfectly!
🚩 You can check if it rule works for the BEAR market and write it in the comments.
📊 WHY IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THE LONG TERM TREND
I know that you guys know the most famous trading quote: "Trend is your friend." . Naive but very useful recommendation.
The understanding of the long term trend helps you to reduce 50-70% of your losing trades and increase your winrate at least to 60-80%:
🔥 you can use only trend following strategy and make much more money (open only long trades on bull market or open only a short trades on bear market)
🔥 reduce the risk when opening a trade against the trend and cut the losses.
🚩 Additionally, if you buy crypto (BTC, ETH or other alts) on spot, you can use this method to buy and hold crypto till BTC not change the trend. This method helps you to make a huge profit.
So friends, this 5 min educational idea helps you to grow your deposit much faster and don't get big losses during the trading.
Traders, was it useful for you? I know I have is a lot of experienced traders. Write your most useful trading tips in the comments to help the newbies.
💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
BITCOIN - Head and Shoulders Targeting $21000BTC is in a good setup for a head and shoulders to the downside. The head and shoulders is a bearish pattern where the price bounces and returns to the "Neckline" support level the 3 times with the final return resulting in a break of neckline support.
How to spot
The easiest way to spot a head and shoulders is to find a support level that the price is bouncing off of. Look for a moderate bounce that returns to support followed by a larger bounce that also returns to support. This is the left shoulder, head setup. In this case, you can see a possible right shoulder forming around $23120. This price area has proven to be strong resistance. It has kept the price at bay for weeks now with all breakouts retreating back below it. As a result, it's the perfect set up for a head and shoulders.
How to set your target price
To determine your target price, measure the distance between the top of the head and the neckline. In this case, $1500. Subtract this amount from the neckline and you will get your target price.
Make the bearish case
How is the price action looking? Is the price action bearish? Is there a lot of buy or sell volume? By making a bearish case prior to your head and shoulders call, you will have more success in your trades.
BTC BEARISH CASE
-Broke the red channel
-Returned back below strong resistance
-Bear flag setup for right shoulder
How to Trade
Some traders like to enter their short at the top of what they perceive to be the right shoulder. The weaker (lower) the right shoulder in comparison to the left shoulder, the better. This shoulder is still early so its difficult to say whether we've topped yet, but the strong resistance would make me feel better about entering here. Other traders like to enter their short once the price has broken the neckline, which would be a more definite bearish move.
Technical patterns are never 100% for certain. However, if you can spot them and trade them in the right circumstances, you will find a lot of success. Best of luck! I hope this helps improve your trading and your PnL!