BITCOIN, A Bunch of SHORT-TERM Profit Opportunities$Bitcoin has just formed an almost horizontal flat channel. Both, a support and a resistance are ascending which makes this channel - BEARISH . However, we have two triggers, one for SHORT position, another for LONG, let me explain you.
If the price of $BTC break through the resistance at $8200 and takes hold above one, you can open short-term LONG position. In another case, if the price breaks through the support of the bearish channel ($7515) , you can open SHORT position. Just take a look at the chart and you will see that this channel offers a bunch of opportunities if you properly place entry orders.
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BTC-M
BITCOIN, Analysis According to Wyckoff Method, Must Read!The purpose of technical analysis using the Wyckoff method is to improve the timing of market operations when a speculative position is formed in anticipation of an upcoming move, where there is a favorable profit/risk ratio to justify opening this position. Trading Ranges ( TRs ) are the points where previous movement will be stopped and there will be a balance between supply and demand.
Here , within the Trading Range , accumulation or distribution develops and prepares for the further movement. These accumulation/distribution forces "create a cause" that transforms into subsequent movement. Creating the necessary strenght takes time and, since during this period price action is understandable, Trading Ranges represent really nice trading opportunities with potentially very favourable risk/reward ratio. However, to become a successful trader, you must be able to determine correctly the direction and size of the upcoming movement from the Trading Range. Fortunately, Wyckoff method offers us some useful guidelines and models which will help us to explore the Trading Range.
In our case we observe the Wyckoff ICE scheme - to fall under the ice.
The fall is a relatively wide-spread price movement, at quite high volume, which breaks through external resistance or support. The return is a test that immediately follows the jump, it is characterized by a relatevely narrow spread or rally on a lower volume, which checks and confirms the validity of the previous action of a jump.
The Wyckoff method tells us to buy on a return after an upward jump (sign of strength), or to open shorts on a downward jump (sign of weakness) . Also according to the Wyckoff method, you shouldn't buy exactly during the breakout, because that can put you in an vulnerable position for quick movements in the opposite direction if the breakout is false one.
Thus, the Wyckoff method offers us to buy on the correction of the downward movement and sell on the correction of upward.
How to use Fibonacci in #CryptocurrenciesAs you can see in the image, Bitcoin and Fib retracements are a very powerful combination. I personally only use 61.80% & 78.60% because this particular market is very volatile and prices tend to go down or up very fast. Always wait for 4H or Daily Closure and a good candlestick pattern like doji, tweezers tops, hammer. Remember that the most powerful Fibonacci plays perfectly when you are with the trend. As you can see in my related ideas, i use Fibonacci for confirmation and for correlation with my key levels.
Feel free to leave a comment below and if you like the content i am posting give this article a like and follow me for more premium knowledge.
Lesson in volumeIm seeing a build up of red volume candles which could signify a drop soon. What Ive noticed is if you look at the previous candles it helps when determining future price movement. For instance if you see 10 tiny red volume candles in a row they add up. So if you see a period with more red volume than green its not wrong to assume that a decline in price is in the cards. This isn't fool proof and you should also pay attention to other indicators that traders watch. In doing so you can greatly increase your chances of obtaining profit. Its all about increasing your chances of being successful.
Long story short, looking at volume is important. Understanding the way it works is crucial to being a decent trader. Look for the uptrends and downtrends in price action and pay attention to the volume situation. There is an obvious correlation. I am probably not the best person to be giving a lesson in TA. This was done more for personal reference. But I figured I would share with everyone! Im learning as I go :) Happy trading everyone!!!!
(Sorry I had to delete the original post because I saw a mistake)
Bull run comparison with 2015-16. Consolidation phases.Here's an idea. One certainty we know is the high of 2017 like the high of 2013. The other certainty we can gauge using Fibonacci retracements. I have used the low of the week the blue MACD line turned positive. The reasoning being that price retreats when it around the first retracement level, and consolidates before the next move up to 50% when it consolidates again. Try it the 2013 high. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Fibonacci lessonHere is a little proof to all the haters that Fibs definitely work. If you do not understand the way fibs work you can send me a private message and I can help you out. They are pretty simple to use. Check out some of my literature if you get bored today at work or something :P medium.com That is my medium account. There are quite a few write ups I have done over the past few months. Everything is free so check it out if you like :)
I hope you all have a great Friday!
The best technology is not the most profitable person!Let's look at a multi-period diagram, which is a powerful feature of TV that no other software has. For the use of multi-period diagram, many people may not know.
In multi-period diagrams, the biggest problem is the inconsistency between periods, which leads to the illusion when used. One cycle is going up, and the other cycle is going down. What do you do with that? Who shall prevail?
Take a look at the current trend. The 1-hour rally is over and we are facing adjustment demand. The 4-hour rally is waiting at the bottom.
Such contrary circumstance, it is more difficult to master to trade.
The correct operation is this, you have to choose an independent cycle according to their own needs, such as you want to do more, then you look at the 1-hour chart is unable to find evidence, you go to 2, 4 hours to find opportunities. And if you want to short, then the hour and day line is the reference.
For most people, trading and analysis are two levels of business. For analysts, we require a comprehensive analysis of the market trend, so many cycle chart is very important, we have to follow up the relationship between the cycles, give a forecast. For traders, the simpler the better, as long as you choose the cycle you want from the trends the analyst gives you.
Of course, we need to know that technology is dead and people are alive. The purpose of our study must be to make money. The so-called "crossing the sea by raft" is not the core.
At the heart of the deal is not technology, but discipline. Otherwise, those who do not look at indicators, do not understand the technology, is not the opportunity? But what we see is often the opposite case, a lot of people make money, but they don't seem to have any exquisite operation technology, more execution. Just like the market yesterday, the indicator prompt is passive, if you wait for the prompt to operate, the moment of the waterfall is difficult to avoid. But from a human point of view, other people are greedy and I'm afraid, so when we remind ourselves of the risks in the morning, the person who falls on the safe side will be the winner. This is the law of the market and the beauty of trading.
The best technology is not the most profitable person!
How to code EMA, understand it by code : Bitcoins :BTCUSDWhat is EMA ?
Ema is known as exponential moving average, it comes from the class of weighted moving average. It gives more weightage to the recent price changes, thus making it much more relevant to the current market analysis. Also it provides a dynamic way of calculating support and resistances in a trend following setup.
The most common way to mint profit out from the market is to use trend following setups which can be easily achieved by using a group of EMA’s
So how’s this EMA calculated ?
Before understanding the calculation of EMA let’s look into a much wider topic:
“The Law of Averages”
It states : If you do something often enough a ratio will appear, simply put, any time series data, tend to deviate from its average.
EMA provides a way to statistically calculate the exponential moving average for a provided time series data giving much more emphasis on the most recent data in the series.
So in the 17th century, when the people were playing with numbers in their free time, they came up with a statistical strategy to envelop any time series data to detect the direction of the data flow , they called it exponential moving average.
Later in 1940’s with the increase in signal processing requirements in the field of electronic devices scientists started using Exponential moving average onto the electronic signal followers, just to classify the signals as above or below a moving/dynamic threshold.
So EMA is a smoothed time-series data.
The simplest form of EMA Smoothing can be given by the formula:
S(t) = alpha * X(t) + (1 - alpha) * X(t - 1).
The value of alpha must lie between 0 and 1
Where
alpha , is the smoothing factor
X(t) , is the current observation data point
X(t - 1), is the past observational data point.
t , is the current time
Generally,
In current day trading setups for EMA the alpha is calculated by
alpha = 2 / (time period window + 1)
Things to note here is that the alpha calculated above is the most generally used factor calculation method for EMA ,
You can tweak the alpha function above until it gives value between 0 and 1 for example alpha can also be written as
alpha = ln ( current price / past price )
Note it’s just a weighing scheme,
But for Our Case of EMA
We will be using
alpha = 2 / (time period window + 1)
Please refer to the script code :
SHARED HERE
BITCOIN vs LITECOIN comparison. Bull market leader shift.Just a quick mention on something interesting I stumbled across while constructing my long term LTCBTC strategy.
During the 2015 recovery phase after the bear market, Litecoin started rising aggressively prior to Bitcoin and led cryptos into the start of the new bull market. At some point it pulled back considerably and BTC started gaining momentum and lead the bull market while LTC entered a prolonged consolidation period. BTC made minor pull backs but never "looked back" on its way to a parabolic rise to the 2017 All Time High.
This is a simple comparison intended to illustrate the shift in market dynamics. We see the very same situation taking place now.
Bitcoin heading over $8,900 into June not impossibe.If you mark all the green candle that were three months up in a row, and then the breakout from the high to the next high marked in pink it gives you some idea of where the current breakout could be heading. NOT ADVICE. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. DYOR.
Note that RATE OF CHANGE turned positive (above zero)
Note price closed above yellow box first time since peak of 2017 (not shown in chart below which was created before closing price).
Bitcoin -a brief history of the "confirmed" bull markets 2018-19Hi guys!
I have decided to create this diagram to show you, how majority of the crypto community has reacted to every single
counter trend rally (and "trendline break" ) from all time high to present.. I am almost sure that these series are not over and we will see a couple of more "definitely" confirmed bull markets all the way down to real capitulation.
All the best and, take care a stay patient!
-DP-
Forget Bitcoin and watch this textbook TA!Away from the action on BTC and the S&P500, I'm making big profits on hidden gems, like this UK stock. A classic TA inverse head and shoulders setup! Straight out of the dusty textbooks. Strong volume on the left shoulder and weak volume on the right shoulder, just as it should be. I bought just above the breakout line. The breakout is clean, retests to a perfect level and then takes off like a rocket! Beautiful. (and highly profitable).
BTC - Be cautious of the 5th wave. Elliott Wave Psychology Elliott Waves are derived from human psychology of Greed/Fear. Take care when U trade/long 5th waves, most retail traders tend to FOMO here because they missed the initial waves
Note that 5th wave in turn has 5 subwaves, DONT long the 5th subwave of the 5th wave
Reference:- www.profitf.com
Here is an example of possible waves for BTC with the recent uptrend. Where was your entry? Where do you plan to exit? Here are my thoughts
Entries
1) The best, most profitable long entry is at the beginning of wave 1, but its very hard to catch the bottom
2) Wave 2 is good for entries as you can set a stop loss at beginning of wave 1 (In EW, wave 2 can't go below wave 1)
3) Beginning of wave 3 is also a safe area to long, especially when price crosses wave1 top. This is least profitable entry, but safer and easier
Exits
1) Wave 3 top is a safe exit, especially if you entered in wave or wave 2
2) Subwave 3 of the 5th wave is a profitable place for exit but little risky
3) 5th top is the most profitable exit, but also the hardest and riskiest. IMO not worth the extra profit as its always hard to catch the tops
4) 4th waves are usually triangles and tend to be hard to trade
There is always corrective waves (usually ABC) after 5 wave are done, if you weren't able to exit during the 5-wave uptrend, it is ok to exit during the beginning of the A or during the deadcat bounce of B wave
Note that B waves are perfect bull traps, easy way to recognize them is that they have only 3 subwaves instead of 5 subwaves
Hope this helps! Please leave a thumbs up and love to hear your comments