BEST pattern BTCThis is the strongest Bitcoin Pattern. Its called the Ladel Pattern, and it Starts when BTC reaches All-time high.
The Ladel pattern has been consistently appearing at every major all-time high of BTC. And the accuracy of this pattern is pretty high as you’ll see in this video.
People are used to “One Size Fits All Patterns”. The ladle pattern is proof that each Currency/Stock does have their own unique patterns that cannot be found in the traditional textbook pattern list.
I also mention in this video that BTC likes to fall 80% from all-time highs. This is also a strong indication that BTC might go back down to the $10k-$15k range.
Many new traders/investors are tunnel-visioned on the current price. They forget to take a step back and look at the big picture. I’ve met BTC traders who said that BTC never fell more than 50% in its lifetime. Those are the traders that never looked at BTC chart before 2020.
BTC-M
Types of market days every trader should know aboutIf you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis!
Technical analysis is largely impacted by some very important factors. One of those very important factors is the type of the market day. Analysing the type of the market day correctly can give a potential edge to any trader who is actively trading in either stocks, indexes, cryptocurrencies, forex, derivatives etc.
Today, we will be discussing ‘6 different types of days’ we might witness across the market. Please note that these 6 days are significantly different from each other. These patterns are not sacrosanct, meaning they should only be used as a guiding factor and not the exact determiner for any particular trade.
Types of market days:
Trend day
Double distribution trend day
Typical day
Expanded typical day
Trading range day
Sideways day
✔ Trend Day
The ‘Trend day’ is usually an aggressive trading day with either a clear bullish or bearish momentum. On a bullish Trend day, the opening candle is usually the day’s low, and the market then gradually moves higher throughout the day. On a bearish trend day, the opening candle usually marks the day’s high and the market gradually declines throughout the day.
The Trend day is usually preceded by a quiet day with range bound movements. If spotted correctly, gives the potential of a huge profit. Such trending days occur rarely, and might happen only a handful of times in a month.
✔ Double distribution trend day
The ‘Double distribution trend day’ is a bit complex and a very reliable method for placing aggressive trades. That is why institutions and professional traders use this strategy to the fullest.
It is usually characterized by the indecisive nature at the beginning of the session. On such a day, the market initially follows a tight range bound path. It is also known as an initial balance. The initial balance high, or IBH, and the initial balance low, or the IBL, form the reference points. The Double Distribution trend day begins on a calm note. Gradually the price breaks free of this range and trends towards a new value propelled by buyers or sellers. After the momentum has calmed down, the market forms another range-bound movement. This is where the term ‘Double Distribution trend day’ comes from, as the bulk of trading activity happens at either extremes.
A narrow initial balance is easily broken whereas a wide initial balance is harder to break.
✔ Typical Day
It is characterized by a sharp rally or decline early during the trading session. It could be as a result of any impactful macro-economic news. The market participants then push the price back in the opposite direction by taking counter positions. A wide range created within a very short span of time earlier during the trading session essentially causes the market to trade within this range later on.
✔ Expanded Typical Day
It is similar to that of the previously discussed ‘Typical Day’. However, the initial price movement is not as volatile and therefore, the initial balance is not as wide as a ‘Typical Day’. This leaves the opportunity for the market participants to break this narrow range. Once this range is broken either by the influx of selling or buying pressure, the market then makes a strong move towards that particular direction.
In this case, the initial balance is wider than a Double Distribution Trend Day but less wide than the ‘Typical Day.’
✔ Trading Range Day
Buyers and sellers are actively pushing the prices back and forth. Responsive buyers and sellers will attempt to enter at the extremes, pushing the prices back to the original point. This type of day gives amazing trading opportunities to both parties.
✔ Sideways Day
On a ‘Sideways day’ price does not move much on either side. It is a sort of indecisive day for both parties as they refrain from placing aggressive directional trades. This sort of a trading day is usually loved by option sellers who bag profits from the time decay as a result of the non-directional muted movement.
Although the Trading Range Day and the Sideways might seem similar, they are significantly different from each other. The presence of buyers and sellers are pretty high on a ‘Trading Range day’ whereas the same does not happen for a ‘Sideways Day.’
"Secrets of a Pivot Boss" by Franklin O. Ochoa is a great book that delves in depth into various aspects of Technical analysis.
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Keep supporting:)
-Mudrex
⚠️ HOW TO LOSE your money in a day? ⚠️Hey guys,
I know I've made a chart like this before, but this version is more complete.
We all see too many people having the satisfaction of losing their money every day and sometimes it happens to us too. I think it's best if we share with other people how it's done.
There are 10 effective and original ways to do this:
1. Panic Sell:
This one is a classic. They say "10 years in the forex & stock market is 1 day in the cryptocurrency market".
That's because this market has too many changes in a short time.
Bitcoin literally can pump or drop more than thousands of dollars in 5 minutes, and that's when people start the Panic Sell.
They start to think: what if it drops even more? What if it touches ATH now that I opened my short position?
Well, that doesn't necessarily happen all the time. Currencies like Bitcoin have large price ranges and every single move might look like a big thing. But it isn't!
2. FOMO Buy:
Classic #2! OMG, this new coin just pumped ten times! Ethereum is pumping. What if it reaches 10K? Cardano passed $2. I should get a ton of it and sell around $2000! Bitcoin is going to reach 1 million dollars this weekend!
If something pumped so high that it got your attention, don't you think it's a bit late already?
(I think I made my point here)
3. Don't use Stop Loss
We all know how it feels waking up to see that the market touched our Stop Loss and pump right back up.
Using Stop Loss is very important if you want to protect your assets. If you're willing to protect your positions then you should learn how to play with them, control the risk, know the dangerous zones, be aware of the price range.
If your coin's value is dropping under the predicted area, using SL isn't a bad idea! If you're a true player, then you can recover in no time.
4. Use high leverages
I WANT THAT 50 THOUSAND DOLLARS RIGHT NOW! I'll just set my leverage to 125x. I'm sure Binance won't mind it!
Guys... The safest leverage amounts are 20x or below. If you can't afford to lose the money you shouldn't open a position with more than 20x. Give that price range a little room to breathe. People who are more confident about their forecast and predictions use higher than 20x up to 75x or even 100x! The higher the leverage, the more risk you put your portfolio at.
5. Buy new hype coins
I love this one! I see it every day.
That CEO launched a coin. This CTO made a spite coin. That guy with a big Twitter account mentioned this name. That coin is named after a dog... I LOVE DOGS!
PEOPLE! This is your money we're talking about...! You worked hard for that money, right? Who's to say if these rummers are real? Why would a hype coin overtake Ethereum just because someone tweeted about it?
There are better ways to lose your money. Please don't use this one!
6. Get greedy
Classic #3. I earned 20%... now it's 32%, should I close it? What if it goes even higher? What if I close my position now and it goes up to 500%?
That's when we keep our positions open and then after 5 minutes, we are down 20%. Sounds familiar?
7. Draw meaningless lines on a chart
You open TradingView and WOW, hundreds of charts about different coins with random lines on them.
That's easy, right? I bet we all can do it. Se let's open a chart and then draw as we want... connect the dots? Make a Triangle? A Head and Shoulders on a '5 minutes' chart? I'm sure that predicts the market.
Guys, we can't just paint around on charts... there are rules, there are actual patterns. Check this as an example:
There are more than 50 good patterns that can be used to predict the market in different time ranges.
So that's it... Draw your favorite lines and predict the price AS YOU WANT IT TO BE, and lose a little money here too.
8. Don't use Fibonacci
I'm sure too many experts won't agree with this. But Fibonacci can help Futures traders a lot. You can just put it in the right time range and use it to find the key resistance and support levels. This method is amazing if you want to study a coin before entering for short-term trades.
If you don't, you might end up doing a FOMO Buy or Panic Sell, which helps you lose even more.
9. Believe that you are the smartest person in the room
All I'm saying is that some people do NOT let other ideas come in.
They have a confidence level is amazing. Well, that's not a bad thing, but at least listening to what other people have to say might be a good idea. Maybe they're playing the right card with a different perspective we can't see.
10. It's your turn. Complete the list.
Tell us about all the other ways you know... Share your experiences.
Thank you for your attention.
Found something awesome about DXY and BTC!Hi every one
today we wanna talk about something that Is pretty Interesting and quite awesome for Crypto Traders! so we observed the chart of DXY and BTC and from last year they've been moving in the opposite direction! pay attention to the charts! you can see that the price of BTC starting from may 11th 2020 has started a bullish rally while on DXY chart the price has the started a Bearish movement exactly starting from that date! and In a single year DXY has kept Decreasing and BTC kept increasing . starting from may 11th 2021, DXY has started a bullish movement and you can see that the BTC price has started a bearish rally from that point. so we can come to a conclusion that If DXY moves (weather It's Bullish or bearish) BTC always moves in the opposite direction and of course Crypto market follows BTC. So this thing can be quite helpful for Traders such as you to understand the market better.
Have a nice day and Good luck.
Success Rate of Popular PatternsRemember Do not trade solely on Patterns only. Ultimately, traders should seek out the best combination of patterns and price action to create an analysis strategy that works for them. Experiment with different approaches and combinations until you discover a method that suits your trading strategy and goals.
Here are the success rates for these patterns:
Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern (83.44%)
Head and Shoulders Pattern (83.04%)
Bearish Rectangle Pattern (79.51%)
Bullish Rectangle Pattern (78.23%)
Triple Bottom Pattern (79.33%)
Triple Top Pattern (77.59%)
Double Bottom Pattern (78.55%)
Double Top Pattern (75.01%)
Ascending Channel Pattern (73.03%)
Descending Triangle Pattern (72.93%)
Ascending Triangle Pattern (72.77%)
Bull Flag Pattern (67.13% Success)
Bear Flag Pattern (67.72% Success)
Bullish Pennant Pattern (54.87%)
Bearish Pennant Pattern (55.19%)
These success rates presented are the result of a study conducted by a group of professional traders. They studied 10 different patterns independently from one another in 5 different markets (Forex, Futures , Equities, Crypto and Bonds), for a time period of 22 months with more than 50 case studies for each and every single pattern.
Educational chronology Over the last couple of Months, I have published some educational content here @TradingView and wanted to correlate them into one post as they now cover several pages.
Starting with some of the fundamentals and into more of the advanced topics;
EACH IMAGE IS A LINK TO THE ACTUAL POSTS
Starting with Psychology - one of the most important things to pick up on early. There are some great books on trading psychology, one of the best in my personal experience is Trading In the Zone by Mark Douglas.
I expanded on this psychology one - by adding cartoons to break down the stages.
As for some good books see this post;
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When starting (many new traders are joining sites such as TradingView) for crypto. So when assessing companies/coins to invest in - it's good to have some depth on the company. Here's a guide on assessing alt coins;
Another relevant topic in crypto - as there will be dips! IS how to buy the dips.
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Chart basics
Trendlines;
Moving Averages;
Mixing timeframes on the chart;
A little more advanced
MACD;
Confusion in Indicators;
Gann Fans;
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Emotional analysis - Elliott & Wyckoff
Why I called this emotional analysis - is that the way Elliott & Wyckoff could read the situation above the chart price, the fact that human behavior drives markets. Composite man (Wyckoff story) controls the markets based on understanding how humans think. Means this is less technical and more emotional.
Elliott Basics;
Elliott Level 2;
Wyckoff;
Wyckoff chart basics;
Basics 2;
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Another topic worth mentioning is COT (Commitment of Traders) a report issued once a week on the large money moves, in simple terms.
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I know there is a lot here in one post - but I hope it helps going through the basics like this and you can save for reference. This was mainly due to all of these posts being over several pages in my profile. This way it's all accessible.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Current chart setup that has taken a long time to perfect This charting setup works amazing on all timeframes. The goal was to pack as much USEFUL information into the chart as possible, without it being confusing, staying easy to use and read and being visually pleasing.
Modified indicators are as follows -
1. Divergence for many v4
2. Suite and dashboard w/ inputs for S&R, Bollinger heatmap, fib retracements, 9,21,50 EMA's. Dashboard to right reads Volatility %, RSI level, VWAP and trend for all timeframes. (Can be buggy- check trends while on 15 min chart)
3. RSI bars with custom settings
Lower half -
1. RSI Divergence (custom settings)
2. AK Trend ID (is just a custom macd really, but gives a good visual representation)
3. MFI with custom settings.
I wont go over how to use everything in conjunction right now. (Saving that guide for a later date)
Enjoy, DJ (CryptoSavvy)
Deep dive: Proof of Work v/s Proof of Stake v/s Proof of HistoryIf you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis!
Today, we thought we would explore the different consensus mechanisms that form the backbone of the underlying Blockchain technology.
We have attempted to briefly cover the following:
Proof of Work
Proof of Stake
Proof of History
These are consensus mechanisms that validate the transactions on the Blockchain. Each of these mechanisms work differently. These differences result in different transaction speed, fees and efficiency.
In order to discuss these 3 mechanisms, we have used three different cryptocurrencies corresponding to the mechanism they follow.
Bitcoin → Proof of Work
Cardano → Proof of Stake
Solana → Proof of History
Proof of work:
Transactions need to be verified on the network and this verification is done via solving complex mathematical problems, called cryptography. The digital currencies therefore came to be known as ‘Cryptocurrencies.’ It was described in the original whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto,
Verifiers, also known as miners are rewarded for participating and validating the network transactions. This was considered a game-changer when it emerged in the original whitepaper by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. The idea existed earlier than the publication in the white paper and was known as the Nakamoto consensus.
According to Satoshi Nakomoto, “the longest chain not only serves as proof of the sequence of events witnessed, but proof that it came from the largest pool of CPU power.”
However, there are several drawbacks to this mechanism. It uses huge amounts of electricity, and emits significantly large amounts of carbon into the environment. Another major drawback is that transactions are slow and inefficient on a large scale. It limits the scalability of the Proof of Work mechanism to mainstream finance.
Proof of Stake:
It came into existence in 2012 after its founders pointed out the inefficiencies of the Proof of work mechanism.
In blockchains that use proof-of-stake, nodes in the network engage in validating blocks, rather than allocating their computing resources to “mine” them. Within these networks, security and consensus is achieved by participants committing a stake — their private or collective capital — to the enterprise in the form of the network’s native tokens.
Ether (ETH) has been indicating to move away from the energy draining proof-of-work mechanism to the energy efficient proof-of-stake for quite some time.
Proof of history:
Proof of History is a sequence of computation that can provide a way to cryptographically verify passage of time between two events.
As per official newsletter of Solana Labs, “the Proof of History solution was presented by the Solana project in order to finally eliminate an issue of the validity of timestamps in distributed networks. Unlike using the established method with timestamps, one can make certain that the action is performed at a distinct point in time after one action, but before another. Through Proof of History, we can ensure that a certain action took place at a certain point in time, before or after another action. This is made possible without the use of timestamps or external synchronizing structures. Confirmation of history is a high-frequency verifiable delay function.
This means that the function requires a sequence of steps in order to obtain and evaluate the uniqueness and reliability of the published value. Solana’s implementation executes the function that uses a sequential hash system that is resistant to pre-images (images of previously prepared hashes). Thus, the output of the transaction appears as the input of the subsequent transaction. Subsequently, the current counter, status, and output are periodically recorded. The clear advantages are scalability and the eradication of the timestamps validity problem. At the moment, it is rather difficult to single out the obvious shortcomings of the protocol due to the novelty of this solution.”
Please note: This post is not a recommendation to buy/sell any particular crypto. The technology surrounding each of the above three cryptos are different. There is continuous advancement happening in this space. Interesting things are continuously happening in the crypto space.
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Keep supporting:)
-Mudrex
Why Price Speculations Are MeaninglessIt's so easy to get caught up in what the next high or low of an asset will be. Most of the time, people's speculations are based on emotion with some basic trendlines and chart patterns indicating a direction in price action with some bold number listed at the top for a new weekly or monthly high.
This is negligent. If you want to post price predications, it would be beneficial to give price action a range. If you mention the top side while forgetting the bottom, then you're just picking and choosing what data to represent.
The picture shown here -> miro.medium.com represents a normal distribution pattern. These patterns exist for ALMOST everything in life. It exists for height, weight, and standardized testing. Most importantly, we've come to understand that it can be applied to financial markets as well. Most of any data set lies in and around the mean. As you stray further away from the middle, the existing probabilities for an event become increasingly less probable. Each standard deviation (noted with sigma) represents a "level" and is frequently given in percentiles.
Using the empirical rule we can shorthand these deviation ranges with a simple 68-95-99.7.
What does this tell us?
1. 68% of the data lies within 1 standard deviation from the mean.
2. 95% of the data lies within 2 standard deviations from the mean.
3. 99.7% of the data lies within 3 standard deviations of the mean.
What's very important here is that these levels can also be used to understand how probable an occurrence is given its distance from the mean.
Here is a scenario:
If the mean of the data is 75, and the standard deviation is 5, how common is the value 70?
Since the standard deviation is 5 and the mean is 75, 1 standard deviation below the mean would be 70. If that's the case, then this value would occur approximately 34% of the time.
You could repeat this process in any direction and extension from the mean. If you know the the standard deviation range and the mean, then this is a fairly simple process to calculate.
So let's talk about how this can be applied to financial markets using proper tools - shoutout to @Donnybrook56 and the Alpha trading team for putting this indicator together !
As you can see from the published chart, this indicator shows each of the standard deviation ranges for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD . The ones shown here are all +/- 3 standard deviation ranges from the current calculation of price on a weekly timeframe. This indicator is important for understanding the market dynamics for the timeframe that you choose to trade on. It is often used for entries and exits and gives you a general idea of how probable it would be to see a certain move on your given TF. If you look back through the history on the published chart, you can see how powerful this tool can be. Deviation bands are often tested, and either smash through or bounce right off of these ranges depending on other factors in the market. These bands are a representation of crude probability, nothing more. They don't show you where price is headed, only what is possible through sheer statistical probability.
Most importantly, these bands give ranges for price. If I were to mention that I believed BITSTAMP:BTCUSD to close at ~41k by the end of this weekly TF, then I would have to do its justice by saying that it has equal probability to close at ~31k. Don't listen to anyone who gives you clear cut price predictions. They don't exist.
Do you know the inside of the candle?A typical candle will have an Open, High, Low, Close. You will see these referred to in some text, articles and indicators as O,H,L,C
Below is the structure of both a Bullish (Green) & Bearish (Red) Candle
The cycle shown below, is the action within a candle, think about this – the candle opens at say 100, it dips to 95 and starts gaining ground to 120, before dropping a little to 115 and closing there.
Why is this important?
Think of it like a football (soccer) match – the game starts and plays out during a set time, much like the candle – and at the end we have a score. The actions in the match tell the story, but it’s the end result that counts.
So, what is the story?
The middle of the candle known as the body is equal to the spread and gives a clue as to the sentiment of this particular candle.
Sentiment
A wide spread gives the indication of strong sentiment, of course if the candle is red with a long body it would be strong bearish sentiment.
If the body is narrow – it suggests a weak bias overall.
Do the wicks matter? – well yes, of course. They tell another story, the wick can give you the equivalent of the match highlights – how much time/effort was committed in the oppositions half. If you think of it still as a sports match.
Although the body (spread) is small this image shows a different type of strength, well actually it is more weakness to the upside than downside strength. The market has tried to push higher and failed.
Wicks in some more detail.
Inside the wick you can see effort with lack of reward. Shown in the image above, this can be exaggerated and emphasised if accompanied by a small body or spread. Especially in the other direction. By this I mean a large wick on the top and then the bar closing red would have emphasis on bearish sentiment – however, a small red body would show little buying interest but no real intent to the downside.
The candles can tell a story, often on their own. However various formations give more detail and can be used to identify events prior to a major move.
This is especially powerful when used with some other methods, that can zone in on areas of interest.
Did you know?
Inside @TradingView indicator tab; there is a sub section for candlestick patterns – to automate the recognition.
This feature has several scripts for Doji, Engulfing, Hammers, Spinning tops and many more.
This was only a quick dive into candlesticks – nothing major and not much depth, but as usual, I hope this helps even with the appreciation of what a candle represents.
Some additional educational posts;
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
What are Stablecoins? Which is the best Stablecoin?If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis!
Quick glance: In this educational post, we attempt to dig deeper into the world of Stablecoins. We have broken down the post into 3 parts where we discuss:
What are stablecoins and why do they exist?
Difference between USDT, USDC and DAI
Which is the best Stablecoin?
What are Stablecoins and why do they exist?
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that are pegged to the US Dollar. (Pegging refers to fixed or tied). Stablecoins are essentially the backbone of the cryptocurrency trading universe.
In a world of high volatility, the Stablecoins ensure that the value of money doesn’t change drastically. tablecoinsIn this post, we will discuss the 3 different most used Stablecoins:
USDT issued by the company Tether
USDC run jointly by Circle and Coinbase
DAI, fully decentralized
P.S. This is a non-exhaustive list. And more Stablecoins will likely be added over time.
USDT or Tetherus
USDT is one of the most talked about Stablecoins. As of today, it’s market capitalization is third largest among cryptos, after Bitcoin and Ethereum. It speaks about the popularity and the liquidity of USDT. It is widely used as trading pairs such as BTCUSDT, ALGOUSDT, ETHUSDT etc.
FYI, USDT is issued by a company called Tether, based out of Hong Kong. The company claims that the price of USDT will always remain at one US Dollar, as each new coin minted is backed by an equivalent amount of cash or assets being added to the company’s reserves.
USDC or USD Coin
USDC is run by a joint partnership between Circle and Coinbase. One key difference between USDT and USDC is that USDC is based on the Ethereum network. It came into existence to be used for DeFi or Decentralized Finance applications
DAI
DAI is an Ethereum-based stablecoin (stable-price cryptocurrency) whose issuance and development is managed by the Maker Protocol and the MakerDAO decentralized autonomous organization.
The price of DAI is soft-pegged to the U.S. dollar and is collateralized by a mix of other cryptocurrencies that are deposited into smart-contract vaults every time new DAI is minted.
Which is the best Stablecoin
Although, there is no direct answer to this, different aspects can be considered to judge the usability of each coin.
USDC is pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, held in reserve bank accounts, and is subject to regular attestations to ensure that it stays this way. This process mitigates the market risk from the currency. On the other hand, despite being hugely popular, the transparency with USDT remains questionable.
To counter the transparency and centralization aspect, the Stablecoin DAI came into existence. To mint DAI, one has to deposit collateral with MakerDAO. Once the collateral has been deposited in Maker, the trader can generate a certain amount of DAI.
Therefore, DAI appears to be the best Stablecoin in terms of decentralization, transparency and averse to market or liquidity risks. However, it will definitely take some time to catch up with the popularity of USDT.
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Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
What Is a MACD Indicator?Moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD) refers to a momentum oscillator used for a trend following trading strategy. There are two lines, a MACD line and a signal line. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, MACD is signaling a bullish trend.
The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-period EMA (exponential moving average) from the 12-period EMA. The signal line, on the other hand, is just a 9 period EMA line.
While most technical indicators only provide a single piece of information about historical price data, the MACD indicator is a versatile 2-in-1 indicator that gauges trend direction and the strength of a trend at the same time.
In this article, we will study the MACD indicator in detail and share some advice on how MACD can be used in cryptocurrency trading and how to identify potential MACD buy and sell signals.
Invented by Gerald Appel 1979, MACD can help investors calculate the direction, length, strength and momentum of a given asset’s price.
MACD Indicator Explained in Detail:
MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that is part of the oscillator family of technical indicators. It allows you to:
Assess the current trend direction (bullish or bearish) and predict where the price is more likely to go, based on the relationship between two moving averages.
Measure the rate of change of cryptocurrency prices, aka the speed of the trend or its momentum. The MACD momentum readings are useful if, for example, retail traders want to assess the strength or weakness of a crypto trend.
On a price chart, the MACD indicator looks like an oscillator with two moving averages, except without specific boundaries such as the most common oscillators (Stochastic and RSI) have. An additional MACD histogram overlays the two moving averages, which completes the indicator.
To understand what MACD is and how it works, we need to learn the meaning of the moving average (MA) first. When talking about cryptocurrency price movements, MA represents the line on a graph that shows the average value of data collected over a defined period of time.
Traders categorize MAs into two key types: simple moving averages (SMAs) that process all input data equally, and exponential moving averages (EMAs) that grant more weight to the recent data. MACD relies on the latter, as they provide data that is more relevant for making decisions whether it’s worth buying or selling the asset.
Perhaps the best characteristic of the MACD indicator is its simplicity, as the signals it provides are obvious even to total newbies.
However, it’s worth remembering that one should never make a decision to buy or sell some specific coin by relying solely on one signal. MACD can be a great addition to other trading signals such as Stochastic or RSI indicators. Some details about RSI will be given later in this guide.
How MACD Works?
In order to understand how to use an MACD indicator, it’s important to understand its particulars on a graph. The MACD indicator is comprised of three key components:
The MACD Line — the fastest moving average (short-term EMA)
The MACD indicator formula is calculated by extracting a long-term, 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from a short-term, 12-day EMA. It is usually colored blue.
MACD Line = (12-day EMA minus 26-day EMA)
The Signal Line — the slowest moving average (long-term EMA)
This is a 9-day line designed to show the turns of the price action, usually painted in red.
Signal Line = 9-day EMA of MACD Line
The MACD Histogram — fluctuates above and below a zero line, which helps to identify bullish and bearish momentum readings
The histogram is the difference between the first two elements (MACD line minus signal line). When MACD is above the signal line, the histogram is positive, and vice versa.
Thus, in order to read the signal correctly, one should check the following:
When MACD is positive and the histogram is increasing as well, this serves as a sign of increasing momentum. The price tends to grow in this case, which can be interpreted as a “buy” signal.
Alternatively, when MACD is decreasing together with the histogram value, it signifies that the price is most likely dropping and the asset should be sold.
In the next section, we will provide a more detailed explanation of how to read the MACD signals.
Continuation Chart Patterns - Falling WedgeHello guys, this is an additional Tutorial idea following the previous one.
You can also use this trick to read your chart if you want to make sure if it's bullish or not. It's called a Falling Wedge.
What is a Falling Wedge?
When this pattern is found in an uptrend, it is considered a bullish pattern, as the market range becomes narrower into the correction, indicating that the downward trend is losing strength and the resumption of the uptrend is in the making.
"The falling wedge pattern is characterized by a chart pattern which forms when the market makes lower lows and lower highs with a contracting range. When this pattern is found in a downward trend, it is considered a reversal pattern, as the contraction of the range indicates the downtrend is losing steam. When this pattern is found in an uptrend, it is considered a bullish pattern, as the market range becomes narrower into the correction, indicating that the downward trend is losing strength and the resumption of the uptrend is in the making."
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Elon candle| BTC massive trend reversal after Elon Musk's tweetIn this post, we are exploring the effect of "humorous tweets" by the Billionaire entrepreneur and CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk. In the recent past, his tweets had created quite a stir in the crypto universe. DOGEUSD had skyrocketed massively. Bitcoin tanked terribly after he tweeted that Tesla stopped accepting Bitcoin payments.
Just a few hours back, he has taken another humorous jab at BTC maxis by asking how many are needed to change a light bulb. Michael Saylor, Dan Held, Peter McChivo, and many more giants quickly joined the twitter frenzy to respond to Musk.
Many critics are calling out the SEC to take notice of his actions, terming them to be a clear case of market manipulation. The SEC is probing hard into the crypto realm, with the investigation with Ripple.
Elon had earlier stated that his company still holds $1.5 billion dollars worth of Bitcoins. It remains to be seen whether the tweets turn out to be the premise for a regulatory investigation.
As of now, BTC has already lost more than 4.2% of its market capitalisation post the tweet! And that does worry out the investors!
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What Does the Ichimoku Cloud Tell You?The technical indicator shows relevant information at a glance by using averages.
The overall trend is up when the price is above the cloud, down when the price is below the cloud, and trendless or transitioning when the price is in the cloud.
When Leading Span A is rising and above Leading Span B, this helps to confirm the uptrend and the space between the lines is typically colored green. When Leading Span A is falling and below Leading Span B, this helps confirm the downtrend. The space between the lines is typically colored red in this case.
Traders will often use the Ichimoku Cloud as an area of support and resistance depending on the relative location of the price. The cloud provides support/resistance levels that can be projected into the future. This sets the Ichimoku Cloud apart from many other technical indicators that only provide support and resistance levels for the current date and time.
Traders should use the Ichimoku Cloud in conjunction with other technical indicators to maximize their risk-adjusted returns. For example, the indicator is often paired with the relative strength index (RSI), which can be used to confirm momentum in a certain direction. It’s also important to look at the bigger trends to see how the smaller trends fit within them. For example, during a very strong downtrend, the price may push into the cloud or slightly above it, temporarily, before falling again. Only focusing on the indicator would mean missing the bigger picture that the price was under strong longer-term selling pressure.
Crossovers are another way that the indicator can be used. Watch for the conversion line to move above the base line, especially when the price is above the cloud. This can be a powerful buy signal. One option is to hold the trade until the conversion line drops back below the base line. Any of the other lines could be used as exit points as well.
Importance of diversification across asset classesAny feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
In this post, we have attempted to cover the importance of portfolio diversification. To drive our point home, we have taken a 2-year reference and divided it into 3 parts:
Pre-pandemic : January 2019 to 10th Feb 2020
Height of the pandemic : Feb 2020 to 23rd March 2020
Post pandemic : 30th March 2020 till present
The 3 classes of asset that we included in this analysis are:
Cryptocurrency- ETH
Stocks- S&P 500
Commodity- Gold
Pre-pandemic period: ETH was on a bull run as were other major crypto currencies. It shot up more than 125% during that period. The S&P 500 index was up by 38.5% during the same period, while the precious commodity, Gold, rose by 24.15%.
At the height of the pandemic: It was a testing time for the diversification of portfolio. Holding any particular asset class and not diversifying at all, proved to be a disaster for many naive investors. ETH dropped by approximately 65%. The S&P 500 index tanked almost 33%, while Gold, considered to be the safest asset, lost 12%.
Post-pandemic period: It was one of the massive bull-runs in the history of bull runs. Patient investors who entered into the markets at the height of the pandemic saw their wealth growing multiple times. Moreover, with the Central banks around the world printing currencies at a furious pace, the only way to beat inflation was to invest in high alpha generating assets.
ETH shot up almost 1800% during this period, which is a 18x return. The S&P 500 shot up over 94%, while Gold went up by a meagre 21%.
Considering the returns and the risk over these 3 periods, it can be stated with absolute conviction that the need for diversification is supreme.
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Technical Analysts already knew that Bitcoin will dump! Head and Shoulder
Often considered the most steadfast of all major reversal patterns, the Head and Shoulders chart pattern is employed by novice and experience traders alike to speculate on both forex and stock markets. The benefit of this chart pattern is defined areas to set risk levels and profit targets.
The inverse (reverse) head and shoulders pattern is equally useful in any trader’s arsenal and adopts the same approach as the traditional formation.
This pattern already notified us of BITCOIN DUMP.
Also, I earned a lot from Bitcoin because of Support and Resistance.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE + Trading Pattern = Best Combination =>> Profit$$
How to be careful from misleading Indicators | XRPUSD reversalAny feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
Quick glance: In our previous analysis on XRPUSD , we discussed about Ripple losing a massive market cap. Right now, XRPUSD had a massive reversal. It has taken support from the lower Bollinger bands.
Market in the last 24hrs
The last 24 hours were quite a roller coaster. All major cryptos witnessed a huge selloff including ETH, BTC, DOT and others. Trading volumes also spiked up tremendously.
Today’s Trend analysis
XRPUSD seems to be having a massive reversal. At the end of the downtrend on the 4H chart, there appeared to be a 'Hammer' formation. However, the patter could not be confirmed as the 2 following candles were red, thereby negating the reversal after the 'Hammer'. Stop losses would have been triggered for traders taking long positions after the hammer. Therefore, it is always crucial to wait for the confirmation candle, even if it eats into some of the potential gains. It hedges against fake-outs!
The reversal happened after XRP took support from the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. The volume profile shows the demand zone at $0.8688, which is 40% higher than current levels.
Price volatility remained extremely high at approximately 24.53%, with the day's range between $0.5231 — $.6514.
Price at the time of publishing: $0.6315
XRP's market cap: $29.04 Billion
Out of 11 Oscillator indicators, 9 are neutral,1 is bearish, and 1 is bullish.
Out of 15 Moving average indicators, 11 are bearish , 3 are bullish and 1 is neutral .
Indicator summary is bearish for XRPUSD in the shorter timeframe.
Volumes have spiked up tremendously in the past 24 hours.
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The analysis is based on signals from 26 technical indicators, out of which 15 are moving averages and the remaining 11 are oscillators. These indicator values are calculated using 4Hr candles.
Note: Above analysis would hold true if we do not encounter a sudden jump in trade volume .
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1 year: Impact of Institutional accumulations on Bitcoin pricesAny feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
In this post, we have attempted to cover some of the major institutional accumulations that has happened in Bitcoin since June 2020.
Bitcoin's rise over the past 1 year has been phenomenal. The rise does not only mean in terms of prices, but also as an attractive asset class that provides a much-needed diversification. During the pandemic, the response towards Bitcoin has been nothing short of extraordinary. Both institutional investors and retail traders understood the importance of Bitcoin in building long term wealth.
The data presented in this analysis has been researched and curated from different portals such as Tradingview, Coindesk, Forbes and Twitter. We have reviewed five different dates where the volumes have spiked up massively owing to news surrounding accumulation of institutional investors.
It should be noted that the dates mentioned here reflect the news coming to limelight regarding the accumulation. It does not necessarily imply that all the accumulation happened on that exact day.
02nd June 2020: BTC closed at $9525.73
Fidelity Investments stated in their report that the number of institutions buying Crypto derivatives products has more than doubled.
27th July 2020: BTC closed at $11,046.19
Report shows Bitcoin futures surging past 186% as institutional accumulation of the underlying continues at a massive pace. BTC jumps up above $11k.
20th October 2020: BTC closed at $12,802.67
Paypal announces its acceptance of Bitcoin for payments. This time the accumulation is fuelled from both institutional and retail end.
17th December 2020: BTC closed at $22,814.24
Grayscale investments increased their Bitcoin holdings by double digit figures over the past few months. Bitcoin shot up by approximately 7% following the report.
29th January 2021: BTC closed at $34,249.64
Carthie Wood's ARK publish that Bitcoin climb unto $400K as hedge funds and several other institutions are steadily increasing their Bitcoin and crypto holdings.
Another interesting piece that has come up very recently is MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR , a business analytics firm has purchased around 13,005 Bitcoins, amounting to approximately $489 million, on Monday, 21st June 2021.
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Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)