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USD (US Dollar)

Spot The Trend & Trade It On Lower Time FramesOne of the strongest setups are the ones that are being formed by the dual time frame momentum. By using multiple time frames you will be able to create a high probability setup. Key rule is: Large/High time frame for trend and Small/Low time frame for your entry. Personally I mostly I like to hold short term positions, so I use the daily time frame for the trend and then the 4 hour for my entry. For the purpose of this educational post I will use the weekly time frame so that we can spot the long term trend and over the course of the next 2-3 months I will update this post and you will see how very well this strategy works (for the purpose of this guide I will assume it has broken the upper range, so it isn't a trading advice or prediction of what will happen) Part 1 Spot The Trend (I use the weekly time frame, but you can apply the same principles to the daily time frame) Currently the weekly time frame is trading in a nice triangle that is narrowing. At the moment it isn't possible to spot a clear trend due to this. So we have some patience and we will wait till the price has broken out of the triangle. Now it's important to remember that a range is only considered to be broken when the candle has closed outside of it. Since we now use the weekly candle we wait till the market close on Friday, if you use the daily time frame you wait till the daily close of the market which will close the current candle and start a new one. Lets jump a bit forward in time and assume the upper range has broken when the weekly candle closed. Now we know that the weekly time frame will show a nice wave up as is often the case with a range break out. So there we have had, we had some patience, we waited till the weekly would close outside of the range and now we know that the weekly time frame trend will be up the next weeks. Now this doesn't mean straight away that on Monday the next trading day the price will jump up. Maybe the lower time frame will have a correction first because it just had a strong wave up. An indication of this on the weekly time frame can be the Stoch Rsi, Rsi or just Stoch indicator. If the price has broken out of the range but one of these indicators is already in the overbought or oversold area a retracement can be very likely. To confirm this we take a look at the lower time frames, because we want to make sure that your buy position wont drown first be a retracement on the 4 hour or daily time frame before going back up and following the weekly trend. This is the next step. Find Your Entry To avoid getting caught up in a lower time frame is very simple. You make sure that the lower time frame is pointing up in the same direction as the higher time frame. For example I use the daily for the trend and then I wait till the 4 hour points in the same direction as the daily trend and I have my entry. In our example it goes the same. Except now we use the daily and 4 hour time frames for our entry. Why not only the daily? If the daily points like the weekly time frame, you can still get caught up in the 4 hour retracement. Why not skip the daily and jump to the 4 hour Well if the 4 hour points up like the weekly time frame in our example,the daily time frame can still point down. So basically you're trading a retracement of a retracement. Which can make your position go up first based on the 4 hour, but once that retracement is done it will go down first till the retracement on the daily time frame is done. To avoid getting caught up in all these retracements we wait till the daily and 4 hour time frames will both point in the same direction as the weekly. Which will be up in our example since we assumed that the upper range has been broken. The following situation can indicate that the daily or 4 hour time frame are going up: Range has been broken to the upside Price has touched the lower range and the Stoch Rsi, Rsi, Stoch indicator made a bullish cross over
Education
by JoshFX1
2
USDNOK - Search, ask and you will find...I had not clue about this chart. So, I was laying back, squeezed my eyes and let it shine on me (...nope, not smoked anything hehe...). Then it comes together, peace by peace. Here's how I approach any new analysis. - Swings & Pivots - Identify the trend and the flow - some support & resistance - action/reaction & forks - patterns...as far as I can see them (...because I'm a really bad pattern trader) - fractals - anything else (...letting creativity flow) During this process, I delete the whole paintings a couple times. So this is like Zen to me and hell, I really love what I do §8-) Let's see if YOU can make something out of this. Please do me this little favor and let me know if you go long or short. P!
Education
by Tr8dingN3rd
6
DXY vs S&P: they live together and decline togetherJust a small research I made. Haven´t applied any advanced methodics though, just a simple comparison. 1. DXY and S&P move together on bullish times which means there is a strong demand on US Dollar to make profit from raising american market. The profit is double: growth of the stocks index and a convertion back from the USD to your own currency which, by that time, should be substantially cheaper than the USD. 2. In times of bearish cycle for the USD, S&P also goes down or, at least, it doesn´t grow. It is surely explained by a moreless stable domestic demand but a huge reduction in foreign demand, that prefer parking money in Gold or Japanese Yen. 2.1. Defensive strategies are applied on stocks market in times of a decline. E.g. www.investopedia.com 3. In times of a switch between bullish and bearish cycle there was a period when the SP1 Index has already begun to decline but the USD still kept up and renewed peack values. Probably this time we will see a slightly different picture: USD sell-off will start before the stocks market decline as these who invested in stocks will start going back to their home currencies and cancel home loans on an unprecedent low interest rates. On another side, the USD "Safe heaven" period should almost match with the euphoria on the stocks market: we have already seen a 70 bln Dollars capital inbound once the new US President was elected and there should be more to come as money will move from Europe and, specially, from Asia. Therefore, the USD outflow would also start before a definitive decline on stocks indexes and complete a bearish movement after the market hits new long-time lows.
TVC:DXYEducation
by captain_smollett
3
Why 90% of Retail Traders Fail - "Fear of Missing Out!"There are so many reasons why 90% of retail traders fail. One of the main reasons is because retail traders over trade. They fear missing an opportunity and because of this they think there is always an opportunity when in reality there isn't. As traders, it is our job to find high probable setups. Probable setups are limited though... so you need to have patience to wait for them to unfold. All too often I see traders here chasing price , and this EURUSD today is a perfect example of this. I can't even imagine how many traders got short on the break out of this short term up trend line. Many probably waited for the hourly candle to close to enter, but what happened? Immediately after they entered price reversed sharply and is on the way to stopping those traders out who most likely have their stop loss just above the high around 1.047. If we look at the price action over the month of December on this pair, we can clearly see the 1.05-1.052 area have been strong support where buyers continuously stepped in every time price approached it. Once that support was broken you can see that the role of the level reversed and it became resistance. Sellers came in on the back side of the level, however only intraday did it retest the level. It is likely that there will be an official retest of the figure and another major attempt to the downside, even if it is just to the previous low. IF price comes back to a major area that was support it will VERY LIKELY become resistance. A setup like this is a high probable setup, but it takes a while to unfold. It has been 6 days so far since the level has been broken. Maybe it will hit the level today... maybe not. Maybe it will hit the level tomorrow... maybe not. Maybe it will hit the level next week. Maybe it will NEVER come back to the level... Who knows... but as traders we must be patient if we want to get the most probable setups. It is better to miss a trade than to take a poor trade! If you want to get setups that have low odds of working out, that is fine. You do you, but if this resonates with even one trader and helps them trade better than my job here is done.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn261897
11
LEARN TO TRADE THE GARTLEY PATTERN IN 5 EASY STEPSSTAGE 1: THE BULLISH IMPULSE LEG A bullish impulse leg is a strong move in price action to the upside. The impulse leg can be a mixture of bullish and bearish candles, but must have a bullish overall direction. The start of the impulse leg should be marked as X and the top of the impulse leg should be marked as A. STAGE 2: B LEG RETRACEMENT Now that you have identified your X to A impulse leg you are now looking for the B leg, which is a retracement of the X to A impulse leg. Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your X leg to your A leg. The crucial Fibonacci levels you are looking for are the 61.80% and 78.60% Price action must at least touch the 61.80% retracement but cannot touch the 78.60% retracement. As you can see by the illustration, the candle does not need to close below the 61.80% retracement but must at least spike through. The bullish Gartley pattern will be invalid if price action touches the 78.60% retracement of the X to A move. STAGE 3: C LEG RETRACEMENT Once you have identified a valid X to A impulse leg and a B leg retracement, you are now looking for a valid C leg retracement. Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your A leg to your B leg. The crucial Fibonacci retracement level you are looking for is the 61.80% Price action must at least touch the 61.80% but cannot spike above the A leg resistance. The candle does not need to close above the 61.80% but must at least spike through. The bullish Gartley pattern will be invalid if price action spiked above the A leg resistance. STAGE 4: D LEG COMPLETION Now that you have a valid X, A, B and C move you are looking for the final leg in price action at which point you will buy the chosen currency pair. Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your B leg to your A leg. You are looking for a 1.272% which will now give you a valid D leg completion of the bullish Gartley pattern . STAGE 5: PLACING YOUR TARGETS When looking to take targets on the bullish Gartley Pattern the first step is to use your Fibonacci retracement tool. With your Fibonacci retracement tool draw from the A to D leg, you are looking for target 1 at the 38.20% and target 2 at the 61.80%. To protect the profits you have accumulated at target 1 it is advised you move your stop loss to breakeven once the 38.20% target 1 has been attained, thus giving you a risk free trade to target 2. KEY NOTES & RULES: When trading the bullish Gartley pattern, the pattern is meant to be traded at 1.272% D leg completion only. If you believe the pattern is unfolding but price is only at point B, be patient and wait until price reaches the D leg completion. The power of the pattern comes from converging Fibonacci levels of all points from X to D. Point B must at least touch the 61.80% retracement but cannot touch the 78.60% from the X to A move. Point C must touch the 61.80% but cannot spike above the A leg resistance. Point D is complete when price action touches the 1.272% retracement of the B to A move. Stop loss must be placed below the X leg structure support. Stop loss must also be a minimum of a 1:1 risk reward to the 38.20% target 1. Target 1 at the 38.20% retracement of the A to D move. Target 2 at the 61.80% retracement of the A to D move. CURRENCY PAIR: This pattern like any other is more profitable with certain currency pairs, you should do your own back testing on this before trading the pattern. Website: www.UKForexSignals.com Instagram: www.Instagram.com Instagram: www.Instagram.com Twitter: www.Twitter.com DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn180388
28
$USD v. $SEK Lesson #4: Geo Construction & Contingencies #forexFriends, A with lessons and demonstrations offered over the past 24 hours (See $USDTRY, $NZDJPY, ... etc), here is another pair worth looking into, not so much from the perspective of a pending geometric completion, but as an example of developing a contingency plan. Here, we are contemplating a short (green scare representing a conservative, prudent entry point, where price BACA < 1-3 Line as its signal) As the Wolfe Wave/Geo would have it, targeting the 1-4 Line comes to sight, and this would be the right thing to consider at this point. However, there is a slight possibility that Point-5 of the completed geometry might in fact be a dud, and that instead, the higher-high structure that build atop this point may perhaps represent the residence of Point-3, of a larger geometric system. As a cautionary measure, I would here recommend the trader to look for added confirmation, such as breaking below prior higher lows (for instance, the one at 8.45, and the one slightly above 8.40), with perhaps partial positioning if that fitted your risk tolerance or strategy style) - See following illustration: Another typical price behavior worth waiting for is the conversion of the 2-4 Line from a support-to-resistance, which means that price would retrace from a decline and hit the underbelly of the formed geometry, offering a validation signal to go short - See suggested dashed pathway in following illustration: OVERALL: In any case, figuring out reasonable and sound price behavior ahead of the game is likely to remove some of the uncertainties that come with this and any other markets - For instance, there still remains the uncertainty whether this pair will ignore the completed geometry, and instead internalize it into a large system. Yet, for this scenario, there is already a contingency plan awaiting in the background, using the Geo's internal construction rules (see prior lessons). See you on this or other revealing threads. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Education
by 4xForecaster
31
Relationship between Bund and Euro US DollarWhat is the Bund? The Bund is the German 10-Year Treasury bill, also known as a government bond. A holder of a bond is a creditor, and the issuer of a bond is called a borrower or debtor. When the price of the Bund increases, the yield received on that bond decreases and vice versa. What is the relationship between Bund and EURUSD? Why is this relationship there? The relationship between the Bund and EURUSD is inversely correlated - when the yield of the Bund increases, the Euro is bullish, and when it decreases it is bearish. One thing to note is that the price of a bond and the yield received is also inversely correlated. The relationship is there because during periods of uncertainty, people generally look for less risky positions (they may liquidate any equity positions they may hold and invest in bonds if they have low confidence in the stock market). This new demand for bonds pushes the price higher, but forces the yields down. A quick equation can show why this occurs: Let's say we have a bond priced at £1,000 with a 10% coupon rate (the amount you can expect to return per annum). The equation would be (£100/£1000) where yield = coupon value/price of bond. If the price of the bond increases to £2000, the yield decreases (£100/£2000) = 5% PA. For a bond holder looking to sell the bond at a later date, this is good as they have already locked in the rate of interest that they will be paying. However, as a buyer of a bond, you want to be buying low to lock in a higher yield. A concise explanation about what influences bond prices can be found at Investopedia (www.investopedia.com). I have borrowed from that below. The factor that influences a bond more than any other is the level of prevailing interest rates in the economy. When interest rates rise, the prices of bonds in the market fall, thereby raising the yield of the older bonds and bringing them into line with newer bonds being issued with higher coupons. When interest rates fall, the prices of bonds in the market rise, thereby lowering the yield of the older bonds and bringing them into line with newer bonds being issued with lower coupons. Bond yields and FX The spreads of the 10Y bonds can be used to gauge the direction for currencies as well. When the yield spread increases in favour of a certain currency, it is likely that you will see that currency appreciate vs others. When a yield spread tops or bottoms out, you can expect the related currency to begin to fall/rise in the following months. Playing on interest rate differentials is known as carry trading. Above graph explained The Bund is testing back to its 200 day EMA. On the recent occasions when it has tested here, it has failed to break above, however, the upward momentum appears to be intact . In the short term there is clear divergence between Bund & EURUSD. Furthermore our model shows the Bund as being a weakest bear suggesting it would like to go & turn bullish and indeed it would be back in a bull trend through 154 vs close last night of 152.9. Form your own opinions. Losses may exceed deposits.
FX:BUNDEducation
by DavidBelleFX
8
My Butterfly pattern rules GBPUSDHere on the GBPUSD im getting closer to my short orders being filled and the butterfly pattern completing. stops for me go just above the 1.414 ext and target is the .382 retrace of the A to D-leg. Butterfly rules: 1= Atleast a .786 retrace of the X to A- leg but cannot break X. 2= Atleast a .382 retrace of the A to B-leg and can go past .382 just cannot break A. 3=Pattern completion for the butterfly pattern is a .127 ext of the A to B-leg. Thats were i place my orders. If you have any questions about this pattern or if you would like me to post more educational content about advanced patterns just leave me a comment in the comment section and i will help you with it any way that i can. Thanks for checking out my idea and Good luck on all your trades!!
Education
by StevenH
8
USD/JPY - 2618 Trade Explained USD/JPY - H1 - 2618 Trade Explained Having had a double top and now approaching a retracement back into the 61.8% Fib level, we can now look for reasons to short the USD. Unlike patterns we can't just place BUY or SELL orders in advanced. Once we have completed the rules of engagement below, we are looking for confluence within a certain area that all coincide. This in the long term will give us a better success rate. Rules Of Engagement 2618 - Double Top - Break below Neckline / Support - 0.618% Fibonacci retracement - Stop loss above double top - Target 1 at 38.2% Fibonacci - Target 2 at 61.8% Fibonacci Good luck.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn180388
15
Soros did not make GBP crash in 1992. He counted EW correctly!It's not a trading idea, more of a a history lesson :-) Today while browsing the web I stumbled upon a well known story how Soros and his friends heavily shorted the Pound in 1992 and forced the government into surrender, pocketing more than a billion USD of gains. For the British Pound, this can largely be viewed as a black swan event - however, if we look at the chart and apply Elliott wave count, it becomes clear that GBP rise was over anyway as the zigzag correction was near its completion. The last subdivision of the zizzag, which was also a zigzag, completed equal A and C waves, so everything was set for a reversal. What made Soros successful in this deal is that he entered the market at the right moment. The black swan event worked out because the market was ready! Had the market been in a different place of the curve Soros could have bet all his fortune agains GBP and the market would just go by as usual. Black swans don't make the market move. They occur only when the market allows them to do so. And I believe the technical analysis can help is find the right moments. Just a thought :)
Education
by AndyM
4