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USD (US Dollar)

What moves exchange rates, and what exchange rates moveHere is a list of what impacts the strength of a currency, as well as the impacts this strength has on the currency country(ies). Things are of course more subtle than a simple excel list binary check. For example, some inflation is not automatically bad, it can be the sign of a country economic growth, and as it gets bad the relationship is not linear, inflation slightly high will not scare many investors and industrials, but when it gets to a really bad high value investors flee at an exponential rate which exacerbates the currency devaluation further. Where the currency goes it is said depends on where "the big boys" want it to go, in particular central banks. Capitalist countries look to increase profits, Communist/socialist countries seem to also like manipulating their currency which they use for propaganda purposes, to increase their control, fulfill their goals, and to increase their competitiveness so they may improve the lives of "the workers". But the "big boys" do not have full control. Ask the BOJ, ask the BOE governor from the early 90s. Here is the example - without getting into the details - of a bad everything horror story (no you can not short it they have capital controls): Another example, after the initial "safe haven" rally of the USD in March 2020 following the stock market crash, the dollar went into a big downtrend against European currencies: And a final example, China, the biggest holder of usdollars, has been selling its bags (public information), and their economy did much better in 2020 than the US one, the price has been unsurprisingly trending for over half a year now:
Education
by MrRenev
3
DXY vs. USDOLLAR - Which One Should You be Using??? DXY The most common index used by many traders would be DXY. This is considered to be the go to index in interpreting USD strength against the other major currencies. When looking at this particular index, the first thing we should know is, what currencies are actually in the basket and how it is calculated. Below are the currencies included and the percentage weighted to each. EUR - 57.6% JPY - 13.6% GBP - 11.9% CAD - 9.1% SEK - 4.2% CHF - 3.6% As you can see from these numbers, the standard dollar index is very heavily weighted towards the Euro, making up almost 60% of the entire basket. This gives a misleading interpretation of the overall strength of the USD as it compares it mainly to the Euro, almost ignoring the price action happening with other major currencies. USDOLLAR Many traders do not even know there is a second, arguably more reliable index available to them. This basket was created back in 2011 by FXCM and is weighted differently with a slight variation between the currencies involved. Below are the currencies included and the percentage weighted to each. EUR - 25% GBP - 25% AUD - 25% JPY - 25% As you can see, EUR does not carry as much weight in this basket. The weight between the 4 currencies that are included in the calculation are evenly distributed giving a better interpretation to the overall strength of the USD. EURUSD Now finally, the last piece of the puzzle. Let's take a look at what this would have meant for you if you were trading EURUSD. Based on the chart itself, it appears that it has not broken the trend yet, which would align with DXY as well. Therefore, many traders would not have gotten involved in this trade or at least would not have seen as much weakness in the USD as what was presented in the USDOLLAR chart. If someone was swing trading long-term and using the USDOLLAR index to determine direction for the USD, this trader would have been able to start scaling in to their trades 3 months earlier and banking an extra 400 pips on this move. Can this be used for day trading??? The answer to this question is very simply, yes!... Of course this index can be used for intraday trading just as well as DXY. Price action even on lower timeframes will be displayed with slight variations in certain swing highs and lows that can help determine possible entry points in the market. Another benefit of using the USDOLLAR index is that it trades 24/5, the same as every other currency pair, therefore there will be no gap displayed in price as you often see with DXY.
FX:USDOLLAREducation
by TheCaffeinatedTrader
2
Pivot Point Strategy A pivot point is a technical indicator to identify trends and reversals in any market. Pivot points are calculated to determine critical levels in which the price could find its support and continues in the same direction or change from bullish to bearish, and vice-versa. We can use Pivot points to find entry, stops, and profit-taking by trying to determine the psychology of the market. When we are above the pivot point the market is bullish. In a bullish market if we cross a resistance level the uptrend will continue but if it bounces back we can expect a trend reversal. When we are below the pivot point the market is bearish. In a bearish market if we cross a support level the downtrend will continue but if it bounces back we can expect a trend reversal.
KRAKEN:DASHUSDEducation
by apadanaforex
3
🎓 EDU 4 of 20: A PROFESSIONAL TRADING APPROACH (FIST)Hi traders, wish you a happy and prosperous New Year. In the last EDU post, we touched on the main factors that move currencies in the short, medium, and long run. Professional traders follow these influences to determine what currencies to buy and sell. However, each trader has its own time horizon, so following long-term market determinants if you want to hold your trade for a few hours doesn’t make much sense. In fact, it’s counterproductive. Currencies can move in the opposite direction of their Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rate, or Terms of Trade (ToT) for months and even years. While these models work well to provide us with a possible market direction in the long-term, their short-term track-record is rather poor. At CommaFX, we hold our trades mostly intraday or for a few days, and close them ahead of the Weekend (if a trade is still open on Friday.) This way, we can make more short-term trades and avoid the market risk of holding trades over the weekend. News that are releases over the weekend can have a significant impact on open trades after the markets open on Monday! I am following the FIST approach, which is a global macro approach that allows us to take only high-probability trades. FIST stands for Fundamentals, Intermarket, Sentiment, and Technicals. On the Fundamental side, I am following: 1. The current business cycle of a country through leading economic indicators such as housing starts, durable goods orders, and PMIs. Countries that are in the expansionary phase of the business cycle see their currencies strengthen, while countries that are in the recessionary phase usually see their currencies weaken over time. 2. Important news and themes: Such as Brexit, US stimulus, OPEC meetings, Central Bank commentaries... 3. Economic Indicators used by central banks to adjust their monetary policy: inflation rates, labor market indicators, economic growth. On the Intermarket side, I am following the performance of other markets and asset classes that can have an impact on the FX market, such as: 1. Commodities: For commodity currencies like CAD (oil), INR (oil), AUD (copper, gold), NZD (dairy). 2. Stocks: The performance of the stock market can provide clues for future exchange rates (e.g. higher Nikkei 225 usually leads to JPY weakness). 3. Bonds and yields: Global capital chases the highest yield. When bond prices fall and yields rise in a country, the country’s currency will often strengthen. If I see a strong divergence in the Intermarket (for example oil rises but the Canadian dollar falls, such as the case in the previous week), it gets our attention. I become bearish on the CAD from an Intermarket perspective. On the Sentiment side, I am following risk appetite indicators and market sentiment as shown by the options and futures markets. What I pay attention to is: 1. The performance of risky assets vs safe-havens: stocks (risky), risk-currencies (AUD, NZD), oil (market optimism), metals (silver, copper) vs safe-havens such as gold, bonds, JPY and CHF. When risk sentiment is positive (risky assets are bought and safe-havens sold), I become bullish on stocks, AUD and NZD, and bearish on the JPY, CHF, and USD, for example. 2. Market positioning: I follow the positioning of fast money (hedge funds) and smart money as shown by the Commitment of Traders report. When the big guys become bullish on a currency and increase their bullish bias week over week, I become bullish as well. 3. Options put/call ratio: The put/call ratio shows how many put and call contracts are active for a currency. As the ratio rises (i.e. more puts than calls), this is usually a bearish sign for a currency, and vice-versa. Finally, once I see a promising trading opportunity in the market after performing my Fundamental, Intermarket, and Sentiment analysis (matching strong vs weak currencies), it’s time to identify possible entry and exit points with the use of Technicals. Bear in mind that I know what direction I want to trade (i.e. short USD/CAD) before even opening a price-chart! The chart is only used to find suitable levels for a selling position. On the technical side, I focus on important retracement levels, volume profile, and price-action. I don’t trade breakouts, but wait for the market to come to my level (using LIMIT orders) to enter into a trade with an attractive reward-to-risk ratio. This was a short introduction to how professional traders find trading candidates in the market. Unlike the usual retail trader who focuses only on charts, we know what we want to trade before even opening the chart! A chart is the last thing I pay attention to, and my technical analysis takes me around 5 minutes to find where I want to enter into a trade. 90% of the time, I am only focused on fundamentals, intermarket, and sentiment. If you found this post useful, please hit the “LIKE” button and follow. Also, I’ll try to respond to all questions you might have, just post them in the comment section below. Stay tuned for the next part of our Educational Series! In total, there will be 20 posts that will CHANGE the way you trade and look at the markets – PROMISED!
Education
by MujkanovicFX
1
🎓 EDU 3 of 20: Here is What Moves the Forex Market 📈EDU 3 of 20: What Moves the Forex Market? Hello traders! First of all, I wish you a merry Christmas and a happy holiday season. Now that markets are closed and liquidity is thin, we have got some time to learn more about what it takes to become a successful Forex trader. In the last educational post (2 of 20), we have covered why you shouldn’t rely only on technical analysis in your trading. That’s the most common mistake that new traders make! They follow only charts, and trade when they see a trendline breakout, triangle breakout, MA crossover, or any other signal that won’t return consistent profits over the long run. Professional traders in banks and other large market participants don’t trade with technical analysis! We do use technical levels to find appropriate entry and exit levels, but we will never enter into a trade because of a simple trendline breakout! That’s why institutional traders make millions in the markets, and the average retail trader loses 90% of its capital within 90 days of trading. My mission is to teach you how to trade like a professional trader. So, what are my credentials to claim this? I am a full-time profitable trader and follow the markets since 2008, I worked in the trading department and have first-hand experience, and my passion for the markets helped me to gain academic degrees in financial markets (MSc in fundamental analysis of currency markets.) So, what moves the Forex market? What causes the EUR/USD pair, for example, to move from 1.15 to 1.20? Here are the main determinants in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term. Short-term determinants: 1. Trend-following behavior and herding effect : Market participants tend to buy into uptrends and sell into downtrends, which accelerates the original moves and causes the trend to continue. 2. Investor sentiment : When investors are bullish on a currency, they tend to buy. When they are bearish, they tend to sell. There are ways to measure investor sentiment in the market, and we’ll cover this later in our educational series (hint: We use the futures and options markets to measure investor sentiment) 3. Risk appetite : When investors are willing to take on risk (risk-on), they tend to buy riskier high-yielding assets, such as stocks and high-beta currencies like the AUD and NZD. When they are risk-averse, they tend to park their capital in safe-havens (“Flight to Quality”) such as bonds, gold, the JPY and the CHF. If you can measure the current risk appetite, this can help you identify great day trading opportunities. 4. Market positioning : Certain groups of market participants take longer to change their positions, while others are quicker in rebalancing their portfolios. When large players show a tendency to buy a certain currency, we can expect higher prices for the currency in the future. Real money (like pension funds) are less price-sensitive, while smart money (like hedge funds) are more price-sensitive and quicker in identifying new market trends. Medium-term determinants : 1. Real interest rate differentials : Currencies follow interest rates, and Forex traders are basically interest rate traders. The real interest rate differential between two countries tends to be a leading indicator of future exchange rate movements. The real interest rate represents the nominal interest rate minus the current inflation rate. We follow the real interest rate differential of 10-year government bonds of respective countries (like between the UK and the US for the GBP/USD pair) to get a hint of where the currency pair is heading to. 2. Monetary and fiscal policy : Changes in monetary and fiscal policy can create strong and long-lasting trends in the Forex market. Usually, a tighter monetary policy will put buying pressure in a currency, while looser monetary policy will exert selling pressure in the currency. Tighter fiscal policy is usually bearish for a currency, while looser fiscal policy (i.e. more public investments) is usually bullish for a currency (at least until more fiscal spending starts to negatively impact a country’s budget deficit, which is then bearish for a currency!) 3. Trends in the current account : Countries that run a current account surplus (i.e. they export more than they import) often see their currency appreciate (rise in value) because of capital inflows and higher foreign demand for their currency. A typical example for this is Japan in the 80s and 90s (When the US imported Toyotas, they had to buy Japanese yens to pay for them). Countries that have a current account deficit (i.e. they import more than they export) see capital outflows, which then lead to currency depreciation (fall in value). Long-term determinants : 1. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) : The PPP is a macro-economic principle that says that different currencies need to have the same purchasing power over time. Let’s say a Porsche costs 100,000 pounds in the UK, and 120,000 USDs in the US. If the current GBP/USD rate is 1.40, a buyer from the UK could exchange 100,000 pounds to 140,000 USDs and buy the Porsche in the US for 120,000 USDs. Over time, this demand for US dollars will cause the GBP/USD exchange rate to fall towards 1.20, which is the Real Exchange Rate according to the PPP. Of course, the buyer has to take into account import taxes and shipping costs to the UK, as well as the time required to complete the purchase and import the car. We also have to make the assumption that Porsches are the same and have the same built quality in the UK and the US. It can take years until a currency pair finally moves towards its PPP equilibrium level. Fun fact : The Economist magazine has created the Bic Mac Index, which compares the prices of a McDonald’s Big Mac in different countries to calculate the PPP exchange rate for different currencies. 2. Terms of Trade : Terms of Trade for a country measures the trends in prices for imports and exports. For example, when oil rises, oil exporting countries will experience a positive trend in their Terms of Trade and likely see their currencies rise in value (take Canada for example.) On the other side, countries that rely on cheap oil will likely see their currencies fall in value when the price of oil rises (India for example.) In the upcoming educational posts, we'll combine the most important currency determinants into an effective framework used by professional traders: The FIST analysis. The stuff I deliver here for free is world-class trading education! There isn't anything like this on the world wide web, and you'll learn a full and profitable trading framework (analysis + execution + risk management) used by professional traders! We are still developing your "Analyst brain", and will then move on to your "Trader brain" (execution) and "Manager brain" (risk and money management) in this fully free 20-part Educational Series! Upcoming post: Introduction to FIST Trading Don't forget to FOLLOW and LIKE to receive new posts! Also, if you have any questions, let me know in the comment section below. Happy holidays again!
Education
by MujkanovicFX
2
🎓 EDUCATION 2: STOP Trading (Only) with Technicals ❌Happy Thursday traders! It’s time to continue with our Educational Series on how to become a successful trader with a professional trading approach. It's holiday season, and closed markets mean more time to sharpen our trading skills! Let's go... In the last post, we touched on the main ingredients of a successful trader (check the link to "related idea"). Let’s reinforce those again: 1. Market Analysis – Your “Analyst” side. Here, you are going to combine Fundamentals, Intermarket analysis, Sentiment analysis, and (the correct) Technical analysis (FIST approach). 2. Trading – Your “Trader” side. Once the analyst in you spots a promising trade idea, the trader in you is responsible to execute the trade with proper entry and exit levels. 3. Management – Your “Manager” side. Every trader is a risk manager. Your manager side is responsible to manage your trade and risk levels, scale in and out of positions, open the correct position sizes, evaluate the reward-to-risk of your trades, etc. Alright, so far we are still covering your “Analyst” side. Your analyst side determines whether you will buy EURUSD, sell GBPJPY, buy gold, and sell silver. It’s the part of your trading that constantly scans for profitable trade ideas and setups in the markets, and passes them on to your “Trader” side. Why You Shouldn’t Rely on Technical Analysis? The majority of new traders I see in the retail space place too much attention on technical analysis. They search the internet for TA articles, look for the “holy grail” indicator, read dozens of technical analysis books, but still don’t manage to improve their trading performance. The truth is, they don’t understand the markets. I don’t care how many TA books you’ve read in your entire life, if you don’t understand how markets work and what moves prices up and down, you won’t succeed as a trader. Unfortunately, almost every retail trading website promotes and publishes those articles, because they are attracting clicks of inexperienced traders. Here is a hint: When I worked in the trading department of a large European bank, I didn’t even look at charts. There are almost no charts and no indicators on the trading floors of big banks and hedge funds! Do you really think that banks will move hundreds of millions into a trade because the 50-day MA crossed the 100-day MA, or because the price formed a Head & Shoulders pattern? The first time you do this in a bank will likely be your last day as a professional trader. So why do retail traders trade like that? Because they don’t know of better ways to trade. No one has taught them that trading based purely on technical analysis will never work. It’s in nobody’s interest to teach you this because large market participants need the “dumb money”. Yes, they make a profit when you trade badly and lose money. So, what’s moving the market if it’s not technicals? The Forex market is the marketplace for the world’s currencies, and currencies are influenced by supply and demand. To be more precise, interest rates influence currencies, with higher interest rates increasing demand for a currency (therefore leading to higher prices) and lower interest rates decreasing demand for a currency (therefore leading to lower prices.) We as Forex traders are interest rate traders. We trade currencies based on (short-term) views about their future interest rates. For example, let’s say the market expects higher inflation rates (inflation represents the change in the price of goods and services during a year) in Australia, which could lead to a response from the Reserve Bank of Australia by hiking interest rates. This will create demand for the AUD (remember, global capital is always chasing yield), which in turn would lead to a higher exchange rate of the AUD. If you only followed technicals and identified a bearish divergence on the RSI in AUD/USD - and you entered short - it’s your fault. The pair would likely move higher on higher interest rate expectations in Australia. So, when do technical levels work? When the market trades in fair value (in fundamental equilibrium), you’ll find that simple technical rules work. If large market participants agree that the current exchange rate of a currency pair is “fair” given the current fundamentals, smaller players may move the market when the price reaches a support or resistance level, or when the price breaks above or below a triangle. Unfortunately, markets are always in a state of flux and rarely in equilibrium, so following other analytical disciplines (besides technical analysis) will improve your trading performance dramatically. This chart shows the Band of Agnosticism. This band represents a span of exchange rates where fundamental-based traders are unlikely to join the market because the market is already in a fundamental fair-value zone. As the exchange rate starts to approach the upper or lower band, fundamental-based traders (which happen to be large banks and hedge funds) start considering opening new positions. The volume of their orders pushes the price back inside what is considered fair value. Professional traders first look at a variety of other factors before they decide what currency pair they want to trade. Once we identify a good trading candidate (our “Analyst” side does that), then it’s time to open the chart and find areas where we could enter with a long position (and those are not trendline breakouts!) We will cover all of this, step by step, in the coming Educational posts. Don't forget to FOLLOW to receive all future trade ideas and educational posts! Happy holidays everyone. 🎆
Education
by MujkanovicFX
1
Is the US Dollar dying or dead?In this very busy chart, I compare 6 forex pairs. It needs some study. What seems clear to me is that the USD strength has been heading south manly since March 2020. This is not unexpected of course, following the FED's money-printing spree, now called QE infinity. I'm not here to say whether that's a good thing or a bad thing. The overall effect of a weak USD is to keep the US stock indices afloat. I'm not saying that is an intended effect of what the FED is/was doing. I think the effect is dangerous on both Bond and Stock markets, because at some point people or banks are gonna wake up and wonder 'What's the value of money?'. In a sense that's already happening, as in other posts I've shown that there is movement of value into metals and Bitcoin. The above are speculative opinions that may well be wrong. This means that you ought not to make decisions based on anything I say. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Editors' picks
Education
by Captain_Walker
7
🎓 EDUCATION 1: What Does It Take to Become a Successful Trader?EDU 1: What Does It Take to Become a Profitable Trader? Hello traders. With this post, I am starting an educational series on TradingView unlike any other. We’ll go through all the aspects and nuances of becoming a professional, consistently profitable, and successful trader. Now, those are big words. You have likely heard them from various other sources that claimed to teach you the holy grail of trading or that offered some sorts of “secret indicators” that would pave the way to financial freedom. The truth is, nothing is secretive about successful trading. Thousands of professional traders are consistently profitable, and large institutional traders manage to beat the markets, year over year. The key is learning how to trade the correct way. That’s my trading approach as well: Institutional trading for the retail trader. I have been fascinated by the markets since the early 2000s. I am not only a self-taught trader, but also have an academic background that has helped me tremendously in understanding market forces and applying them in my daily trading. I enrolled at the Faculty of Economics in 2008, finished my undergraduate degree in technical analysis and my Master’s degree in fundamental analysis in the FX market. Since then, I have been following markets daily, created various trading strategies, backtested them, and chose the ones that work best for me. Alright, now it’s time to finally start the educational part. What does it take to become a successful trader? A successful trader is an analyst , trader , and (risk and psychology) manager – all at once. The analyst side of a trader generates trading ideas, the trader side executes the trades, and the manager side manages both the risk and psychological aspects of trading. We’ll go through each of them in this educational series. Trading is not about following technicals all day long. Professional traders and large players in this market don’t buy EUR/USD (or any other pair) when a Moving Average crosses above or below another Moving Average, or when the RSI shows overbought or oversold levels. Forget about trendlines and wedge patterns for a moment (how many times did you catch a fake breakout trading them?) and open your mind to a trading approach that combines: Fundamentals Intermarket analysis Sentiment analysis ...and (the correct) technical tools Those disciplines form the cornerstone of what I like to call the FIST analysis. We’ll use technicals only to enter into a trade after we already have a direction derived from the other types of analyses. So, this educational series will start with your analyst side (FIST), continue with your trader side (process/strategy/execution), and finish with your manager side (managing risks, managing yourself, position-sizing, scaling in and out of positions, etc.). By the end of the series, you’ll hopefully get a completely different picture of trading than you had before. If you find this trading educational series useful, please follow and hit the “LIKE” button. Have questions? Post them in the comment section below. Coming Up: Why Technicals Alone Are Not Enough?
Education
by MujkanovicFX
📚 Learn More 💰 Earn More with us: FLAG = Impulse + CorrectionFLAG = Impulse + Correction 📚 LEARN MORE 💰 EARN MORE With ForecastCity After a significant drop in Bitcoin price , the price is in a correction wave. What makes the chart interesting today is that: . Bitcoin is likely to challenge the 18042 ~ 18227 resistance area. . A break above 18227 could push the pair to the 19487 area . . A resistance rejection , however could lead to another retest of the lower supports. Will the Bitcoin see a rejection from the resistance area or an upside breakout? No one knows it! We have to wait and see! ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Editors' picks
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by ForecastCity
25
BITCOIN Minimum Target: $36000 - Full ExplanationGood morning traders! We hope you are having a beautiful day. 🔸Today we want to show you our vision of bitcoin in the short-medium term and explain why we see it extremely bullish. - Speaking a bit of the context and history, we can see that bitcoin hits all-time highs in late 2017, reaching almost $20,000. After this, there came an abrupt decline that found its lows around $ 3000. From there, the upward movement has been resumed. - During this year, this crypto has made almost a 200% bullish movement. - Analyzing the behavior of the chart, we see that it has potential to be a Cup and Handle movement pattern. 🔸Now we go with a little of theory: - The cup and handle pattern implies a movement in the price that makes a high, a decline correcting movement, a consolidation at lows, and then the subsequent upward recovery. You can clearly see the transition from lower lows and highs to higher lows and highs. After this, it needs a retest of the previous highs (double top pattern), and for a bullish corrective move. 🔸Now, does this imply that bitcoin is going to breakout and make an explosive bullish move imminently? - We do not know, but according to the characteristics of this pattern, no. - What we should expect is a retest of the Resistance zone (all-time highs), and then a corrective move (flag, triangle, pennant, etc.). Once formed, the idea is to trade the breakout. - The MINIMUM target of the movement is calculated by measuring the distance between the minimum of the range and the maximum. - This calculation gives us a distance of $16500-$16600, which, projecting it upwards, gives us an approximate target of $36000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
A simple explanation of money management!Hi every one Kindly like the ideas if it is helping you and leave a comment Money management is the most significant part of any trading system. Most of traders don't understand how important it is. It's very important for you to understand the concept of money management and trading decisions. Money management represents the amount of money you are going to invest on one trade and the risk your going to accept for this trade. There are many, many different money management strategies. Preserving your balance from high risk exposure is the main objective. You must understand what the following term means. Core Equity Core equity = Starting balance - Amount in open positions. If you have a balance of $20,000 and you enter a trade with $2,000 then your core equity is $18,000. If you enter another $2,000 trade, your core equity will be $16,000. When you trade without sound money management rules, you are in fact gambling with your investment. You are not looking at the long term possible on your investment. Rather you are only looking for that quick high return. Sound money management rules will not only protect your investment, but they will make you very profitable in your investing future. Like attempting to lose weight and working out, money management is something that most traders say they practice Money Management but few truly practice. Money management is unpleasant because it forces traders to constantly monitor their positions and to take necessary losses. It is difficult for most people to do that constantly. This method assumes that you are aware of: 1. The stop loss size of the trade 2. The percentage risk (of your unleveraged cash float), that you want to risk per trade. The percentage risk method states that there will be a given percentage of your cash that is at risk per trade. Before you know what is at risk in a trade you need two bits of information: the stop loss size for that trade, and the percentage risk that you've chosen in your investment program. Assume that you chose a percentage risk of 2% of your cash float. If your cash float is $10,000, this means that you want to risk 2% of $10,000 per trade, which is $200. So with every trade, the maximum you would be willing to lose would be $200 With this chosen percentage, it would take you 50 losses in a row before you lose your entire float (50 x 2% = 100%). If your system is a good one, then 50 losses in a row would be highly unlikely. On the other hand, if the risk chosen was 1%, then it would take 100 rather than 50 losing trades in a row to lose the entire float. The number of losing trades required to lose the float decreases as you increase the percentage risk. {Forex} {Crypto} money management is a way of life for the prudent investor. Practice money management and you just might be one of 5 out of 100 that will be in a position to make money from {Forex} {Crypto} Trading. Traders, if you liked this idea or have your opinion on it, write in the comments,We will be glad. Thank you for seeing idea . Have a nice day and Good luck.
Education
by CobraVanguard
27
What goes up has to come down - really?There is a received wisdom that what goes up has to come down. Well, this currency pair trend may defy that rule. We shall have to wait and see. For sure there are corrections to be expected. This begs the question of what does 'down' mean? Is 'down' - a correction? or - does it mean a fall below its original starting point? If you take it as below some original starting point then USDTRY may never actually go 'down' to a level pre-2011. If you take 'down' to mean a significant correction then yes the pair is overdue a correction. I would argue that a 'significant correction' means a retracement greater than 50% from starting point - to somewhere around 5. That may seem improbable but strange things do happen. I'm not making any predictions here. I don't do predictions. TRY met an all time low on Friday 12th Nov meaning it would have taken about 8 TRY to buy one USD (or one USD would have bought you 8 TRY). Then something 'magical' happened and it appeared to strengthen. This followed major turmoil in Turkey (read the news). But keep in mind that the ratio of USD to TRY is based on US Dollar strength, which is not easy to estimate, as everything is relative. If your US Dollar weakens further this could and bearish pressure to the ratio (that doesn't mean it's going south). Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Editors' picks
Education
by Captain_Walker
A system for speculationThere are seven ways to improve the art of speculation. Latest cheatsheet: 1. 🔎 Find your price driver - build a macro argument based on probabilities How good is the quality of the price driver? If I look at the BOE and ECB, how wide is the divergence? We are looking for chalk and cheese, opposites attract. 2. 🖐 Execution is important - most get stopped out where they should enter The key to great execution is being able to assess market participation and price action. 3. 🛠 Start small and leverage winners - from one brick build a house Reverse engineer the retail blow ups! Start with a core unit, when it starts to pay, and the drivers are working, you can add some more. Treat it like a business! 4. ❓ Has anything changed - reassess trades everyday at the roll Don't think about the chart here, focus on the macro drivers. Are negative rates still in play for BOE? or have they changed their view on No-deal countermeasures? 5. ⛓ Remain nimble - do not get married to a position If we don't like what we see, if BOE turns hawkish, then we can just take the position off. Understand where is enough and admit where you are done. 6. 💫 Stay in the moment - perception matters more than reality If you can understand and outguess how perception will change, then you will be very profitable. Where's the sweet spot? How is the market positioned? 7. 😬 A life and death showdown - everyday is high noon in the markets Market participants are profoundly into the game. So much so that everything else in life seems unimportant. Threadneedle Street becomes the world as your opponent will keep trying to outmanoeuvre.
XEducation
by ridethepig
5
💡Ascending Triangle in USDTRY - "Learn More Earn More" With USAscending Triangle Definition: An ascending triangle is a type of triangle chart pattern that occurs when there is a resistance level and a slope of higher lows . It is defined by two lines: . A horizontal resistance line running through peaks. . An u ptrend line drawn through the bottoms. The higher lows indicate more buyers are gradually entering the market and buying pressure increases as price consolidates moving further towards the apex. An ascending triangle is classified as a continuation chart pattern. If price can break through the resistance level , that level will now act as a support level . Breakouts can also happen in both directions. Statistically, upward breakouts are more likely to occur, but downward ones seem to be more reliable. In most cases, the buyers will win this battle and the price will break out past the resistance.But Sometimes the resistance level is too strong, and there is simply not enough buying power to push it through. Therefore you should be ready for movement in EITHER direction. ENTRY: We would set an entry order above the resistance line and below the slope of the higher lows. TARGET: Target is approximately the same distance as the height of the triangle formation. ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Education
by ForecastCity
8
Eyes on post election price actionThese 3 charts indicate that price is usually fairly stagnant pre election. The historical data on these charts only go back to 2012 however the patterns are almost identical. Chart number 1 rallies to an all time high in 392 days, and chart 2 rallies to another all time high in 399 days. The blue vertical line is the date of election and the pink line shows us where price was at that time. This tells me that historically post election and early into the following year a bull run occurs. The year of an election also correlates with the year of a halving which seems to deliver positive price action. Could 2021 be the next big bull run? BTC/USD Weekly Timeframe
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by CryptoTennille
32
Ascending Triangle in USDCAD - "Learn More Earn More" With USUSDCAD is coiling for its next move. The higher lows suggest strength, but USDCAD needs to secure a close above 1.34200 to open the door to the 1.35000 area. Keep an eye on 1.33720 in the event of a pullback. ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Education
by ForecastCity
16
Ascending Triangle in USDCAD - "Learn More Earn More" With USUSDCAD is coiling for its next move. The higher lows suggest strength, but USDCAD needs to secure a close above 1.34200 to open the door to the 1.35000 area. Keep an eye on 1.33720 in the event of a pullback. ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Education
by ForecastCity
20