ADX: How to use this under-the-radar tool.Hey everyone! 👋👋
In this video, we're taking a look at the ADX Indicator. We break down how it works, how to interpret its output, common uses for it, and ways that it can help you find and screen for opportunities you like.
Feel free to drop some questions below in the comments!
Remember - nothing in this video constitutes advice, our only goal is to educate you about the markets and how to use our platform more broadly.
Cheers!
-Team TradingView ❤️❤️
Check out more information about the ADX in our help center here .
Volatility
Using Donchain Channel in a different wayHi TV Community,
I am sharing an idea that might help when when looking for long trades. Read the explanation in the chart.
all the best.
Educational Series: Trading with Bollinger Bands (Part 2)The Bollinger Reversal is my absolute favorite and most valuable perspective of the Bollinger Bands.
Have you ever
- seen the price move strongly in a direction, but the moment you get into a trade, the price reverses almost immediately?
or
- held on to a profitable trade, hoping to hit a take-profit level, only to see your profits whittle away as the price reverses.
The Bollinger Band can help prevent
1) FOMO leading to Late Entry and
2) Greed leading to Late Exit
Look at the yellow spots on the charts
- The spots indicate when the price had traded outside of the 2std deviation of the Bollinger Band (either the lower or the upper bound).
- When the price trades outside of the Bollinger Band, two things are highly likely to happen :
1) the price reverses back before the current candle loses , leading to possibly the development of a pin bar (which usually signals a strong reversal candlestick pattern).
2) the price closes outside of the Bollinger Band and the subsequent candle is a strong retracement , back toward the Moving Average and possibly a stronger reversal.
The Bollinger Reversal can be applied to ANY timeframe (M1 through to D1)
When the price is outside of the Bollinger Band, you should choose to avoid entering a trade , as the price is likely to reverse. And if you are currently in a trade, and the price has broken out of the Bollinger Band, you might want to consider securing the profit .
However, some more aggressive traders could even choose to trade the short-term reversal.
Remember....
- This is a technical indicator. You shouldn't use technical indicators solely.
- Combine it with other forms of analysis, Price Action, Fundamental Analysis, Sentiment, and Other types of indicators.
The more confluences you can have, the more confidence you will have
Volatility Contraction PatternJS-Masterclass #4: The Volatility Contraction Pattern
The Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) is a vital concept for successful traders and a key element in our JS-TechTrading strategy. In this tutorial, we will cover the following:
1. Why is it important?
2. The ‘Overhead Supply’ Concept
3. How to identify a VCP?
4. The Perfect Entry Point
1. Why is it important?
The Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) allows us to find stocks which are getting ready to form a very specific low risk entry point at which the potential reward of our trades outweigh the risk.
The main role that VCP plays is establishing a precise entry point at the line of least resistance.
If a stock is under accumulation (large institutions putting their money into the stock), a price consolidation represents a period when strong investors ultimately absorb weak traders. Once the “weak hands” have been eliminated, the lack of ‘overhead supply’ (explanation see below) allows the stock to quickly move higher because even a small amount of demand will overwhelm the negligible inventory. This is referred to as the line of least resistance. Tightness in price from absolute highs to lows and tight closes with little change in price from one day to the next and also from one week to the next can generally found in constructive Volatility Contraction Patterns. These tight areas should be accompanied by a significant decrease in trading volume.
2. The ‘Overhead Supply’ Concept
Any price action in the stock market is the simple result of supply and demand, just like in any other business. If demand is bigger than the supply, the price goes up. If supply outweighs demand, prices are falling, it is as simple as that!
What happens to supply and demand in a Volatility Contraction Pattern?
Point 1: Traders buying at point 1 in the graphic are called ‘Trapped Buyers (TBs)’.
Point 2: the price has fallen and many people think the stock is ‘cheap’ at this price and buy the stock – the so called ‘Bottom Fishers (BFs)’ provide the relevant demand needed to trigger a price increase.
Point 3: the price has come back up to the level at point 1. Now two things happen
a) The Trapped Buyers who bought a price level 1 are very happy to get out of the trade at breakeven after having had paper losses at point 2. The cut their losses (LC) and provide the relevant supply to the market needed to trigger a declining price.
b) The Bottom Fishers take nice quick profits and sell their stocks, providing additional supply to the market which adds to the decline in price.
Points 4, 5, 6: The same concept applies here but as time goes by, the volatility contracts from left to right as fewer and fewer traders provide their demand and supply to the market, the price action dries out like a towel:
3. How to identify a VCP?
A common characteristic of virtually all constructive price structures (those under accumulation) is a contraction of volatility, from greater volatility on the left side of the price base to lesser volatility on the right side in the chart. This pattern needs to be accompanied by specific areas in the base structure where volume contracts significantly:
Let’s look at an example:
In this example, we are seeing a total of 5 contractions from left to right, starting from 1 (ca. 25% decline) to 5 (< 5% decline) under significantly reduced trading volume. This is exactly what we want to see. At the final base 5, supply has stopped coming to market which is the reason for the low trading volume in this time-period.
Due to the lack of supply, only very few demand is needed to push the price significantly higher. We therefore have a high probability of an explosive price increase. Also, we can set our SL just below the final base at 5 which means that our max. risk for this trade is < 5% - our potential reward significantly outweighs our risk.
4. The Perfect Entry Point
When the price breaks out of the right side of the final base under higher volume, we have a perfect entry point. As the supply has stopped coming to market, only little demand is needed to cause an explosive price move upwards. Furthermore, the volatility contraction results in a tight base at the right end of the pattern resulting in a low risk entry point – the Stop-Loss can be set under the low of the latest base structure on the right side of the pattern which is normally in the range of about 5% risk. This is a vital concept for successfully timing the continuation of an existing trend.
Indicator: Bad Ass Bollinger Bands by wyckoffmode InstructionsHello,
At this time you may buy Bitcoin below the lower indigo band of Bad Ass Bollinger Bands and sell above the white upper band.
In the future you can come up with your own trading strategy by looking at the BBB indicator and finding the points on the indicator where buying is optimal. For instance like I said now is the time to buy below the lower indigo or "blue" band and sell above the white upper band.
Please, I'm interested to know your thoughts and would appreciate if you write me some information in the comments about this.
Please, pair Bad Ass Bollinger Bands with "Phoenix Ascending" also by username wyckoffmode aka David. He's a great man.
You may also ask him for access to "Phoenix ARI" and combine stochastic RSI with Phoenix ARI because Phoenix ARI is less susceptible to price action. By merging the two you get a good glimpe of volitility mixed with price action.
By using Phoenix Ascending a general rule of thumb is to buy Bitcoin when the blue LSMA is below the 20 line. However as you can see that doesn't happen a lot. So try to buy when all three green,red and blue are as close to the 20 as possible with green even being below the 20.
The best timeframe to use this on in my opinion is the three hour. If you are using this on the 15 minute or 30 minute chart please make sure you load a copy of the 3 hour and 6 hour charts in another tab and monitor to them to accurately make a good trading decision. Always remember what it generally boils down to in this market is to buy below the the lower indigo and sell above the upper white.
Good day and best wishes.
GUIDE TO TRADING EUR/JPY (highest traded non USD pair in forex)Why is EUR/JPY important to traders?
One of the popular pairings across the worldwide foreign exchange market is EUR/JPY. It represents around 4% of all daily transactions. Investors and traders alike look to the euro/Japanese yen currency pair because high levels of volatility can provide plenty of trading opportunities. There are major factors that can influence their rates, and how and why people choose to trade EUR/JPY using CFDs (contracts for difference) on forex.
Fundamental Aspects of EUR/JPY pair:
Major factors throughout both Europe and Japan affect the euro yen exchange rate. As with most regions, factors that can have knock-on effects are usually fairly broad and similar in nature. Japan, however, has some interesting key points that differ from the norm, which we'll explain in more detail.
Like most modern currencies, the major factors which influence the movement of euro prices are mainly economic, political, and financial. Many of the ways in which the euro is affected will already be familiar to people who have a basic knowledge of how traders try to determine which way prices of currencies like the euro will move. Monthly reports which are released by the European Central Bank (ECB) form the backbone of many traders' decisions regarding the euro. Investors and traders are quick to scour these details as soon as they are released in an effort to find out more about what direction the euro could be heading. Economically, news releases surrounding employment can play a huge part in the oscillation of euro rates. These figures are freely available and provide a valuable insight into the health of Europe's economy and direction in which euro prices could go.
The economy of Japan has a few more factors in play that can affect the rate of their currency. General health of the economy will play a massive part, with the high rate of import and export trading in Japan helping to boost or weigh on prices, depending on the state of the industry. One of the influencing factors that you're less likely to find in other countries is, surprisingly, the rate of natural disasters which occur in the region. Due to the small size of the country, events like natural disasters can affect the currency’s value immensely. The government of Japan often utilizes economic initiatives in an effort to bolster the economy. As a result, many traders and investors pay extremely close attention to interest rates and government interventions from financial institutions such as the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Another regular factor that traders watch out for is the details within data reports such as the Tankan Report, the Tokyo Area CPI and the aforementioned interest rate decisions of the BOJ. These help to determine various financial paths that yen may follow.
How & When To Trade EUR/JPY: Best is when currency is most volatile. The EUR/JPY is generally busy between 07:30 and 15:30 (GMT). Convert To Your Time. Tokyo and London overlap two -three hours is great when there our two major sessions trading at one time. Yen is currency of Japan, and third most widely traded currency in world after US Dollar and the Euro. It is possible to make a significant profit within just a short time when trading EUR/JPY.
Supply & Demand patterns on the market + Ultra High Volume ZonesIn this video I am presenting the approach of identify and trade incoming supply and demand signals, as a modification of VSA methodology. I explain more also about importance of spotting places, where unusual high volume takes place. Enjoy!
Gamma Levels StrategyHello Traders!
I am presenting in action how I trade intraday using Gamma Levels in Intraday trading. I discuss setups, SL and TP placement as well as market behaviour, including positioning of Smart Money from Options & Darkpool markets. I also introduce my personal Money Management approach, as this is key step in order to be successful (profitable) trader.
Guide To Trading USDCADIf you are an investor interested in any currency pair during NYSE trading hours, the USDCAD should be among your priorities.
Ranked among the top 5 most traded currency pairs on the platforms, the USDCAD represents a significant volume in Forex trading. Such a pair offers excellent profitability possibilities because the daily trading volume is considerably high. Learning about the technical and fundamental aspects that make this currency pair move price is a must for successful trading. Essential information related to the USDCAD. Once you acquire the knowledge, you will put it into practice and profit from it as soon as possible.
Fundamental aspects
Like other pairs in the FOREX market, the USDCAD is firmly anchored to international commodity prices, especially oil. Canada and the United States are among the countries with the highest oil production levels in the world. In addition, Canada’s leading oil export destination is the United States. Therefore, a rise in oil prices will hurt the US dollar and positively affect Canadian dollar. Conversely, if oil prices fall, the pair will tend to rise. Canada is also a significant exporter of materials and commodities, such as wood, grain, and minerals. Being so close to the US has strengthened the import/export industry in Canada. In addition, it helps the currency maintain a stronghold in the foreign exchange market.
Changes in interest rates and policies to help increase the employment rate are other aspects to take into account. The announcements are made by the Central Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve of the United States. Changes in interest rates and policies targeting the increase in the employment rate are other aspects to consider. These announcements are made by the Central Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve of the United States. The essential thing in this aspect is to be attentive to the dates when they will meet because, during those days, the volatility of the USDCAD pair increases considerably. Because they are firmly related economies, data on economic growth (GDP), industrial production (PMI index), and consumer demand for goods are highly relevant. As a result, it can cause significant volatility spikes in the pair.
Profiting from the wrong policy decisions of some countries is possible. One of the examples is the fall of the US stock market and real estate market in 2008. In addition, the banks’ recklessness in lending non-stop throughout the 2000s resulted in a crash. However, Canadian banks were spared because they did not follow the same policies as American banks.
Different strategies can be applied based on technical analysis since it is a very liquid pair, especially during the hours of higher volume. Typically, during the opening hours of the NYSE, a more significant number of transactions takes place, thus increasing the volume in the pair. Canada and the United States have different economic structures. While Canada leans toward more liberal economic policies and strict immigration regulations, the US depends on the economic boost of educated and talented immigrants to enhance the workforce. The USD benefits from a much larger volume of trading activity, as well as the presence in virtually every primary global industry.
It may seem that the US and Canada are very different. Still, their geographic proximity helps traders, making trading USDCAD easy. Performing back testing and analyzing all the aspects we have mentioned will give you a better view of the market and increase the probability of success in your trading.
Pairs You Trade? What Sessions Are Open When You Are Trading?What Pairs Should You Trade? What Sessions Are Trading When You Are Up? * Use Your Commonsense!!!
The best forex pairs for you to trade will depend on many factors:
What time of day you will trade
Whether you are interested in making a long-term investment to achieve larger profits or are happy to scalp smaller profits many times each day
Your knowledge of currency, the forex markets and global economies
Should you trade (example)
USD/JPY pair when Tokyo is in session? Yes, because half of the pair is in session and both volume and liquidity is moving markets during this time.
AUD/USD pair when Tokyo and/or London sessions are open only? No, because Sydney session has closed and New York has not opened yet.
EUR/JPY pair when London and/or New York Session are open only? Yes, for overlapping London/New York session, but no once London session closes.
USD/CAD pair when Sydney, Tokyo or London is open only? No, because both sides of these pair are open during New York only- so trade only during NY.
In my opinion and one of my rules is:
at least half of the pair needs to have current session open and trading, if both parts of the pair are in session (say: Tokyo and London overlap (EUR/JPY pair) or London and New York overlap (EUR/USD)- that will give you the most volume and liquidity in these pairs, thus movement in the pairs is much easier.
In Forex: Commonsense is a must, Patience is a must, Risk Management is a must and knowing what sessions are open and giving liquidity & volume is a must.
CSC-HARSI with Alerts for GO long or Short and when to BUYWelcome to the coffee shop everybody I am highly highly highly excited about the new developments taking place with the CoffeeShop Crypto HARSI 2022
Don't let the name of the indicator fool you it can be used on more than just crypto you can use it on all markets or any markets that you choose to use it on.
As you know the indicator was released sometime ago and I really want to give a big thank you to all the people who come through Boost the script as well as use it on their charts it's really nice to see you guys doing that and I want to let you know that I get information I get indications of that taking place and I do make sure to follow you because I want to know what it is that you're up to and I want you to see what I'm up to.
okay now that we're done with the introductions and all the salutations and make you feel good about yourselfes let's get into what's happening with the CSC-HARSI.
Make sure to take a look at the attached video above because you're going to see and hear me discussing the new implementation of 2 types of alerts and indications that show up on the indicator itself.
One indication is when it is going to be telling you to Bi-Lo another indication is going to be when it tells you to go long. That is related to people who want to go bullet in the market and Buy Low sell High. "Bi-Lo" Means that the trend is about to reverse or that if you're in a ranging Market you can buy at this very low price. Shortly after that you'll end up getting another indication saying "Go long". This means that you've already bought at the lowest possible price in a safe place and now when it says go long you can set your trade and take profit levels. So "Buy Lo" does not mean enter into the market and set your take profit it simply means that you buy shares at a low price.
The other indications that will show up will be simply the reverse of that. One would say "Buy Hi" which means you just accumulate shares or coins or what have you so that you can short them later on. A little while after that you'll get another Indication that says "go Short". This means that you've already accumulated shares at a high value and now you're going to "short" them.
In the attached video you'll be able to see how to use the coffee shop crypto and when and how do you use these two separate alerts for example "Bi-Lo" and "Go-Long" or "Buy-Hi" and "Go-Short"
As of the recording of this video in the publication of this idea do not look for the information related to that in the coffee shop crypto heart see this is simply an idea to let you know what's coming up next.
So in the meantime go ahead add to your favorites from this link
and add it to your chart and when I published the new version of the code which will be with somewhere in the next 24 hours I hope you'll get an indication from tradingview and it'll say hey has been an update to this script go and get the new one. At which point you would simply delete the coffee shop crypto from your trading chart, then you would end up going to the Community Scripts and typing in CoffeeShop Crypto 2022 And re-add it to your chart.
So again make sure you watch the video that's attached and if you have any questions go ahead and drop them below if you just simply excited about it go ahead link a comment about that below as well.
Average True Range... and BollingersATR is a great indicator designed to show you the previous ranges of the previous candles depending on the value chosen, in this example I have done 6 periods, so you can see in this chart I have highlighted when we have peaks and troughs and one thing to do is compare the times of day this activity happens, you can see at certain times the atr climbs, it stalls at others or can fall, so ATR is showing us previous candles range, so if you are in a trade you want the range to be growing usually so that your trade can head to TP, but the important thing to takeaway is the fact that price is moving alot, this is because it is experiencing higher level of trading activity price is trending, where as a falling ATR reading means typically things are slowing down or accumulating, remember this doensnt give direction though as price can still move up or down despite a falling range per candle. However what it can do is tell you good times to look for trades, you can filter down by time the best time to take trades based on your strategy winning or losing in the peaks of troughs. ATR can also be used to determine stop losses of TP, by taking the the reading and using a 2xreading stop loss or TP, the more volatile the market the bigger your stop losses and tp will be, but more volatility generally correlates well with that idea, not only does it offer greater protection it also prevents missing out on good moves. So 2nd part is Bollinger bands we can see how it works, it basically again is telling you the range of things, so Id like you to compare the reading on ATR to the Bollingers, and you can see when ATR falls and the Bollingers are squeezing tight we have very little to trade, energy is low and range is small, In crypto I have heard this term called the crab which I have to say... I do find quite amusing. When ATR is rising the Bollingers expand creating a wide cloud, so on the last box, where price falls despite ATR falling... what is the difference this time? That is right, Bollingers are not squeezed together, which tells us the ATR reading is acting like it is small and stuck in a squeezing formation but in fact we are just in an expansion of the Bollinger moving slowly. What do I want you to take away from this? Just a deeper thought about which market conditions are best for your strategy and how to avoid times which will not really offer a good trade yet ect, and have a look for patterns in how you trade around these volatility indicators! Happy trading... More to come
HOW-TO: Accumulation StrategyIn this idea I will make an in-depth tutorial on how to use the Accumulation Strategy and how to automate it.
█ PRESENTATION
The strategy is in the form of an invite-only script providing backtesting and alerts.
Here is a link to the script page:
Goals
• Steady profits. Smalls profits over time and no drawdown as long as you don't sell in loss.
• Peace of mind. It is meant to be a "set it up once and let it run for a while" automated strategy.
• No loss. Never sell in loss.
Drawbacks
• Small profits. No leverage, just spot trading.
• Lengthy trades. Trades can take up to several days or even weeks in worst case scenario. We will see how to avoid that.
Strategy
• Use volatility. Take advantage of small waves in the market.
• Buy the dips. Use a combination of technical indicators to buy bottoms or oversold prices.
• Accumulation. Buy small amounts several times as price moves to better position yourself.
• Take profit from total volume. Sell everything once price is in profit at the configured percentage value.
█ BACKTESTING
Backtesting is the process of creating a strategy.
Finding a good pair
• By Market Cap. Take a category you are comfortable with (DeFi, Metaverse, DAO, etc) then look at coins in the top 10 market cap.
• Volatility. The more volatile the coin is, the better.
• Ascending/Sideways trend. This is where the strategy will work the best. We will see just below how to filter off bear markets.
• Pick a timeframe. Usually from 5m to 30m, can be higher or lower. I look at the average bar, I like something around 0.5-1% bar height, the chart should not have too much noise, otherwise go higher timeframe. Though not too high, since we want to take advantage of the volatility.
Build your entries
You first have to create "entries" that will then end up being a buy signal, after passing through some optional filters.
• Entry settings
• Go Long/Go Short
The indicator allows to trade both sides of the market. In these examples, I will only go long-only for simplicity.
• Max active deals
This is the maximum consecutive buy signals allowed for the strategy. Example with 10: the strategy will buy up to 10 times until take profit is hit.
• Minimum bar delay between deals
Puts a minimum delay between each entry signal, in bars.
• Minimum price difference in % between deals
Sets a minimum price percentage between each entry signal. Leave at 0 to disable.
• STOCH & RSI entries
Creates entries when the RSI or STOCH crosses below a configurable value. The length and resolution of the oscillators are configurable.
• Other entries
Signals using some of my other custom indicators are BUILT-IN:
• Top & Bottoms
• Higher lows, Lower lows
• RSI Divergences
Entries are combined using a OR logical gate. I usually go with RSI and STOCH entries on higher timeframe using the resolution input, then add Top & Bottoms or Higher lows if I feel like it needs more entries.
Once you have chosen a combination of entries, let's move on to the filters.
• Trend Filter
You can pick a trendline from a list, usually a simple EMA 200 will do the trick. Using slope change or price cross, it will filter off entries if the market wave is bearish, thus avoiding taking risky trades.
• MTF Trend Filter
The same thing, but higher timeframe. It is used to filter with the market wave, meaning the more global trend. It is a good habit to combine the 2 trend lines to drastically reduce the risk. The Adaptive Tilson T3 is one of my favorites, combined with the CROSSOVER condition.
• RSI filter
Useful with entries other than RSI to filter overbought entries. Use a higher timeframe to filter more aggressively.
I would advice to use all 3 filters if you can. It will prevent getting into lengthy trades as we will see below.
Adjusting
• Backtest parameters
First you should go to the backtest parameters tab. Here is what is used in this example:
• Initial capital: 1000 €
• Order size: 100 € (the max deals is 10 here, total deals should not exceed initial capital)
• Pyramiding: 10 (the number of max deals)
• Commission: 0.075 % (Binance spot trading)
• Take Profit
Configure the take profit, in price %. I usually go with something from 1 to 4 %. In some cases, activating the trailing TP can be interesting.
• Backtest results
In addition to the strategy tester, the indicator has a backtest panel containing useful information. Here are some of it:
• Net Profit (% and fixed)
Useful to see how volatile a pair is compared to others.
• Avg # Bars in a deal
Average number of bars a trade can take to be completed. < 100 - great, > 100 - can be improved, > 200 - bad
• Avg # Days in a deal
Same information but in days.
• Max # days in a deal
Maximum number of days a trade took to be completed. < 30 - great, > 30 - can be improved, > 60 - bad
Example of settings that can be improved:
The Avg # bars and Max # Days in a deal are flashing red and orange. It means it can be improved.
By adding the 3 filters, increasing the stoch entries timeframe and reducing the take profit to 3%, we are getting a much more secure strategy:
All the settings are in green, we know that over 421 days, the maximum days a trade took is 13.78, and a trade takes 1 day in average.
█ AUTOMATION
When you subscribe on my website, you unlock access to the indicators but also an automation system for Binance.
The system is using the indicator alerts to automatically place orders on Binance using their SPOT Trading API. You can find a tutorial here .
Create a bot
The first step is to create a bot for your strategy.
Make sure you have enough capital in your account for the strategy.
Set the order size/quantity with the same value as in the indicator backtest parameters.
Create the alert
I recommend to create one chart layout per strategy.
Once you are done setting up the indicator, set the alert messages. You will find the text fields at the bottom of the indicator input settings.
You will typically need to fill "Long Entry" with the buy message, and "Long Take Profit" with the sell message.
Once you have done that, save your chart.
Click add alert on the indicator.
Select the condition "Alert() function calls only".
Tick "Webhook URL" and set the URL. It can be the one from my bot system or if you use another bot system with webhooks it will work too.
Give your alert a name and click create.
Make sure the alert is created in the alert tab.
The alert will save the indicator, settings and timeframe at the moment you create it. If you decide to change an indicator setting, you must remake the alert.
Fees
If you trade on Binance, I recommend to enable BNB Spot trading fees, and always have a few BNB on your account to pay for the fees.
That way, you can use a sell 100% quantity order without needing to take fees into account, unless you are using the strategy to trade BNB. In this case, use something like sell 99% in your sell message.
Supervise
Once your strategy is running, you can supervise it in the strategy tester in real time, in the alert logs and in the bot logs.
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
█ SCRIPT ACCESS
Indicator and automation tools access can be purchased on my website. The link is in my signature below.
█ SAMPLE USE CASES
I will update this HOW-TO idea whenever I backtest a new pair, sharing the configuration and a link to a shared chart that you can copy and edit yourself.
Example on MANA/USDT:
Link to the chart: www.tradingview.com
Thanks for reading. More to come below.
Best Session to Trade - At a glance!Market Sessions Introduction
Watching the market 24/7 is completely unnecessary, considering price only moves during certain periods of the day.
These periods are known as "Sessions" and relate to an exchange's location on the planet.
The two most popular sessions - London & New York - typically see the most volatility and gross number of trades placed.
However, there are strategies designed around specific sessions, such as the "Asian Breakout", which targets the first two hours of the Tokyo session.
The sessions occur every trading day (M - F) during the following UTC times:
London: 0800-1600
New York: 1300-2100
Tokyo: 0000-0800
Sydney: 2200-0600
The London and NY session overlap for 3 hours - this is known as the "Golden Window" in Forex trading...but why?
Advanced Forex Session Analysis
I created a tool to explore the concept of the "Golden Window" and answer a few burning questions:
did every asset have the same golden window?
if the golden window shifted, could you detect it?
does restricting trading times to the golden window improve win rate?
what does the golden window even look like?
This tool is available for free and open source - Advanced Forex Sessions
It scores each session by Volatility (ticks moved) and Volume (number of trades placed), then displays the windows on chart.
I've discovered answers to a few questions and can confidently say, NO, not every asset has the same golden window.
In fact, nearly all small-cap cryptocurrencies have a golden window during the Tokyo or Sydney sessions.
YES, we can detect the window shifting by scoring each session via a rolling average.
MAYBE, it's hard to say if restricting trading times will work for every strategy, but I have seen minor improvements for traditional strategies that buy/sell with fixed take profits and stop losses.
WHAT does the Golden Window look like?
Check out the Advanced Forex Sessions indicator and see for yourself...
How To Use Bitcoin Futures To Hedge Your CryptoYou are either a trader or a HODL'er. Since I am a trader I don't like to sit in massive swings in my spot Bitcoin positions, I like to use Micro Bitcoin Futures to hedge my spot position to minimize the risk and also maximize my long position in spot. In this video I explain how I am currently hedging my long Spot Bitcoin position using Micro Bitcoin Futures, Symbol MBT.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Derivatives trading is not suitable for all investors.
Using TDI To Set Up Trades (Part 3)AudJpy One Hour Sell Trade On Friday:
1) Wait for Green Line to Crossover Red Line downward
2) Enter At Start of Hourly Example Candlestick
3) Put Stop Loss above swing point on chart or 83.400 or 20 pips from entry sell price.
4) Sell Here level at 83.200 or noted beginning of 1:00 A.M. candlestick
5) Take profit at target zone of 82.200-82.400 or 80 pips.
6) Trade was a 1: 4 set up which is great or 20 pip stop loss vs 80 profit/target
Note: Always remember highest volume and liquidity is from Tokyo end to London end or 12 hour period. Remember Monday and Fridays are more choppy generally then Tuesday thru Thursdays price action. 4 things: pair, price, session and time< always!!! Fridays best setup was sell, but a quick one hour buy trade was noted on part two or end of London session too.
Reverse above for Buy trades and use risk management always when trading or 1% to 3% maximum for each trade setup.
How To Use TDI Indicator (Part 2)How To Use TDI indicator (Sell Trade and Buy Trade): One hour chart example ( one hour to four hour trades - be patient)
Sell Trade: #1 example on chart. 4 hour trade for 100 pips.
1) Wait for RSI indicator line (GREEN) line to get close to or go above upper volatility (BLUE) line . The green line is similar to the RSI indicator and represents the market sentiment. It shows you how the market is moving related to positive and negative expectation.
2) Wait for RSI indicator line (GREEN) line to get very close too or crossover the Signal Line (RED) line. The red line is simply a crossover of the green line and can be used for entry and exit in the market.
3) Use either sell limit order or market order to get in at beginning of hourly noted candle. Yes, you can use TDI on all types of trading including scalping, day trading, swing or position trading.
4) Exit or take profit at a major resistance or support area, psychological price level or utilize a trailing stop or predetermined target.
Buy Trade: #2 example on chart. 1 hour trade for 35 pips.
1) Wait for RSI indicator line (GREEN) line to get close to or go below lower volatility (BLUE) line.
2) Wait for RSI indicator line (GREEN) line to get very close too or crossover the Signal Line (RED) line.
3) Use either buy limit order or market order to get in at beginning of hourly noted candle. Yes, you can use TDI on all types of trading including scalping, day trading, swing or position trading.
4) Exit or take profit at a major resistance or support area, psychological price level or utilize a trailing stop or predetermined target.
NOTE: Remember these four things when trading: 1) Pair You Are Trading 2) Price Level On Chart 3) Session(s) Open At This Time 4) Time It Is During The Session or Session(s) Open. Higher volume and liquidity during the times of Tokyo end to London end (12 hours)- best times to trade Forex.
Parts Of The Traders Dynamic Index (Part #1)Traders Dynamic Index
A hybrid indicator developed to indicate market conditions related to trend direction , momentum , and market volatility. An “all-in-one” indicator!
Parts Of The TDI indicator are:
1) Volatility Bands (Blue)-Last but not least, we have two blue lines, one above and one below. Those blue lines represent the volatility in the market, similar to the Bollinger Bands. They are increasing and decreasing volatility. (Have setting on chart of 32 for low and 68 for high of this band, not default)
2) 50% Line (White)- Halfway point of TDI indicator- below is bearish or sell and above is bullish or buy sediment.
3) Market Base Line (Yellow)-The yellow line is what we refer to as the overall market sentiment. It shows the overall direction of the market. The overall market has a tendency to do two things. It can turn slowly, or it can continue to go in the initial direction. This is because it’s too big and it can’t turn too quickly. It’s got to come to a gradual end.
4) RSI Price Line (Green)- The green line is similar to the RSI indicator and represents the market sentiment. It shows you how the market is moving related to positive and negative expectation.
5) Trade Signal Line (Red)-The red line is simply a crossover of the green line and can be used for entry and exit in the market.
You need to focus on market sentiment. When price and market sentiment move together, you have a higher probability for a successful trade.
Regressive VWAP Breakout StrategyStrategy type: Breakout
Ingredients: Price, Volume, Regression
Prerequisite add-ons (free): Regressive VWAP and Strategy Visualizer
Target market: CME:BTC1! or BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
- Long Entry on Close crossing over Regressive VWAP
- Short Entry on Close crossing under Regressive VWAP
- Optional: exit when price retraces to upper band (LX) or lower band (SX)
The key to this breakout strategy is the Regressive VWAP, which weighs Price and Volume with Regression Analysis, making the slope and its bands more responsive, with a degree of mean reversion.
Below is another example, this time CME_MINI:ES1! .
Regressive VWAP Band Buffer Strategy on GC 10RRequired add-on (free): NEXT Regressive VWAP
Target market: COMEX:GC1! 10R chart
Strategy Overview:
- Long when price crosses upper band (green)
- Short when price crosses lower band (red)
- Do not initiate trades in the buffer zone (between the bands) - that is our filter
Setting Alerts:
Here is how to set price (close) crossing band alerts: open a chart, attach NEXT Regressive VWAP, and right-click on chart -> Add Alert. Condition: Symbol, e.g. ES (representing the close) >> Crossing >> Regressive VWAP >> Upper ( or Lower) Band >> Once Per Bar Close.
VIX always best predictorIt is necessary and mandatory to configure alarms in VIX in order to identify best trading opportunities. Analyzing the VIX we realize that we are in a very overweighted buying zone.
- Red lines: time to sell.
- Green lines: time to buy.
For example today is time for selling most items of our portafolio or at least to configure trailing stop at 1%, then we wil have to wait patiently until next buying opportunity.
Remember what Warren Buffett said... "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
Why Implied Volatility Is A Critical Tool For All TradersTraders and investors use different sets of tools when approaching markets. Some are fundamentalists, pouring through balance sheets, supply and demand data, and other macro and microeconomic information to predict the future prices of assets. Others have a strictly technical approach to markets, following trends and the path of least resistance of prices. Still, others combine the two to look for opportunities where fundamental and technical analysis merge to improve the chances of success.
The past is history; the present is all that matters for traders and investors
Historical volatility is a map of the past price variance for asset prices
Implied volatility is a real-time sentiment indicator
The primary variable determining put and call option prices
The three critical factors implied volatility reveals
Yogi Berra, the hall of fame catcher and armchair philosopher, once said, “The future ain’t what it used to be.” All market participants have the same goal, to increase their nest eggs. Projecting the future is the route to achieve their goal.
Implied volatility is a tool that all market participants need to embrace as it is a real-time indicator of market sentiment.
The past is history; the present is all that matters for traders and investors
History depends on interpretation. When it comes to markets, Napoleon Bonaparte may have said it best, “history is a set of lies agreed upon.” An asset’s price moved higher or lower in the past because of a collection of variables viewed through a prism that leads to a collective conclusion that has broad acceptance but may not be accurate. Taking a risk-based position on an inaccurate conclusion could lead to mistakes and losses.
When we consider buying or selling any asset, all that matters is the present. The current price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level a seller is willing to accept and a buyer is willing to pay in a transparent environment, the market.
Historical volatility is a map of the past price variance for asset prices
Historical volatility is an objective statistical tool that defines the price variance of the past. Any disclosure document tells us that past performance is no guaranty of future performance. We must view historical volatility precisely the same way, with more than a grain of salt.
Historical volatility is a guide, but remember what Yogi said, “the future ain’t what it used to be!”
We calculate historical volatility by determining the average deviation from the average price over a given period. When it comes to math, the formulas are:
A simple explanation of the complicated formula comes in seven easy steps:
1. Collect the historical prices for the asset
2. Compute the expected price (mean) of the historical prices.
3. Work out the difference between the average price and each price in the series.
4. Square the differences from the previous step.
5. Determine the sum of the squared differences.
6. Divide the differences by the total number of prices (find variance).
7. Compute the square root of the variance computed in the previous step.
Implied volatility is a real-time sentiment indicator
While we can calculate historical volatility from historical data, implied volatility is a different story. Implied volatility is the expected or projected volatility or price variance of an asset over time.
We back into calculating implied volatility using an options pricing model. We can establish an implied volatility reading by entering the option value into the Black-Scholes options pricing formula or other formulas that determine options prices. If we have a put or call options price, we can solve for the implied volatility level. The Black-Scholes formula in mathematical notation is:
The primary variable determining put and call option prices
There are no option prices without implied volatility as it is the critical variable that determines put and call option values. Yogi also said, “You can observe a lot by watching.” The current implied volatility level is the market’s consensus perception of what volatility or price variance will be during the life of the put or call option.
Observing and watching reveals the constant changes in implied volatility levels, which can be highly volatile over time. Option traders call an option’s sensitivity to changes in implied volatility Vega, which measures the change in an option price for a one-point change in implied volatility.
Implied volatility is constantly changing. Yogi had another great saying, “If the world were perfect, it wouldn’t be,” which rings true for implied volatility which can change in the blink of an eye. Option traders pay lots of attention to their Vega risk as the volatility of implied volatility can be…highly volatile! How’s that for a tongue twister?
The three critical factors implied volatility reveals
Implied volatility is a valuable tool for all traders and investors for three significant reasons:
It is a real-time indicator of the market’s perception of the future price range of an asset.
It can change suddenly, and changes often occur before the price of an asset reacts, making implied volatility a leading indicator.
Implied volatility reflects the wisdom of the crowd, and crowds tend to make better decisions than individuals. Moreover, it is reading that reflects the present, not the past, and is a constantly changing measure of consensus forecasts for the future.
As traders and investors, we exist in the present. We attempt to increase our wealth with long and short risk positions that either add or subtract from our nest egg in the future. Implied volatility is a critical measure we should understand, utilize, and always keep in our toolbox. Any project requires the right tools. Implied volatility’s value is that it reflects a snapshot of the current market’s consensus.
Historical volatility depends on “Deja vu” happening “all over again.” Implied volatility is a measure that understands that the “future ain’t what it used to be.”
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.