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Volatility

The Cycle Parts: Stop Hunt PhaseLet's say they have 3 trillion dollar in short-holders, and 1 trillion dollars in long-sellers. Guess who's getting punished today? Short-holders. It's simple. It has nothing to do with the 1 hour, 4 hour, which way it's pointed, or which way it's going. It's where the dollar volume is built up that they can do the most damage, and collect the contracts. (See: Chart Example) Stop Hunt Phase: Sometime between 1 am EST and 4 am EST, they'll break out of the Asian range in 3 swipes. They'll quickly change the high of the day, settle in, and work it for 30-90 minutes. This is a two- pronged approach. The reason they use the number three is because we are stubborn. They hit it one time, and we think, "Oh, maybe it's not really going that way. It'll come right back." They hit it a second time, and we think "Oh, I'm missing it!" They hit it a third time and you finally get excited and give in that you were wrong, and switch your direction. Now, you've changed in the wrong direction, which is their first break-out of the Asian channel, to get you to recommit your money the other way. What happens when they break out of the range is they trigger the stops of the weak short-sellers, the people that put their stops on the other side of the Asian range, people who put their stops 7 pips below the candle. That's all garbage...they hit them! They cancel out this volume, and get those traders to recommit their funds long. So, let's say half of the people come back. in, and the 3 trillion dollars has now become 3.5 trillion dollars long. What is the goal for the market makers, now? To get that money! How do they do it? There are a lot of people that trade the ABCD patterns (AB=CD), the Fibonacci extensions: when the market makers make their pullback, they make one more pass toward the high of the day. When they make this pass, people put pending orders right above the high. The job of the market makers is to go to the high, open the spread, trigger the pending orders, and validate all of the patterns that can be found in textbooks. When they fire those pending orders, all of those pattern traders are now stuck. They quickly pull off of the high of the day 25-50 pips, to trap the traders in that cycle, and hold them there.
Education
by Anbat
1
The Cycle Parts: Accumulation PhaseFirst of all, let me ask you, "Have you ever heard of a market maker?" Others will tell you they don't exist in Forex market: that the Forex market is too big to be manipulated. Well, I'm here to tell you otherwise. There is a small elite group of traders that do in fact control how market will play out on any given day. The beauty of what I am about to share with you boils down to this: These manipulations are visible on the chart to the trained eye. Once you see the behaviors and understand what they mean, you will be able to trade like a market maker! Accumulation Phase: At 5 pm EST, the high/low are reset. The price comes in,and the market makers make a quick push up, 15-25 pips. They make a quick pull back down, and then go sideways. They push it again 15-25 pips. Why would they do this? When they push up, you're a buyer, and they sell to you. When they push down, you're a seller, and they'll buy from you. They are accumulating contracts, and building up the volume. Have you ever heard of 1 hour, 4 hour, daily, trade in the direction of the trend? Why doesn't trend following work? It's not about the trend, it's about the money. All the market makers do is wait for the money to build up during the accumulation phase, and see where the contracts are accumulated.
Education
by Anbat
EMA/MA ARE YOUR EYES THEY "FOLLOW" THE PRICE. ( SNAKE EYES )LISTEN - To your MA's they're your snake eyes. They move like snakes following the money. ( check out post " benefits of scale on the left ". They know where the price been and they're letting you know where it's going. NOW, IF ALL MA'S MEET AT ONCE, WHAT THAT MEAN? --- I HAVE NO IDEA. EXACTLY. WE HAVE NO IDEA IF THE Great Wall OF CHINA IS GOING TO SUPPORT PRICE TO THE GODS OR CRUSH IT LIKE THE COCKROACH IT ONCE WAS. GET THE HELL OUT!!!!! THEY'RE SNAKES, THEY HAVE TO SLITHER TO A SIDE AND CHOOSE THAT DIRECTION.WHERE WE'LL EITHER BUY ( LONG ) SELL ( SHORT ).
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by CHarrison2021
Trend-Pullback-Breakout PrincipleThis T.P.B principle happens on all time frames, but if you are scalping or day trading (using 15 minute, 1 hour or 4 hour charts). Key Principle: Identify the trend. Watch for pullback. Trade the beak out. 1) Trend candle (TC) 2) Pullback candle (PC) 3) Break out candle (BC) The above can happen on 1 candle each or couple or few candles- attach GBPNZD hourly chart is normal price action on hourly price chart, given the right pair, right price, right session and right time- of this possible sell trade with high liquidity and volume. Underlying Principle: Risk cont through stop loss. The noted set up would have given you 1:3 risk/reward set up with 20 pips/60 pips.
Education
by Anbat
1
Sessions & Overlapping TimesVisualizing the different sessions (Sydney, Tokyo, London & New York) on a chart is easier, then just reading about them. Best times to trade are both the Tokyo/London overlap (purple area) and London/New York overlap (purple area). Price action and risk management is key to profitable FX trading. Remember Four Things When Making Any New Trades: 1) Pair Traded 2) Price Traded 3) Session Traded 4) Time Traded All of the above four things equal liquidity and volume when you are trading, best of both is at Tokyo end to London end session. The chart times are PST/USA times- please convert to your local times, if you would like too.
Education
by Anbat
VIX always the best forecaster of the stock market!Hi friends! As we all know, each market crash is accompanied by an increase in its volatility. Here's an example of how a low VIX perfectly predicted today's correction. Therefore, it is always advisable to have the VIX on our watch list to be able to do a preventive monitoring of the market. When we see low volatility, we must close positions or be very cautious. Please give me your like, your comments and follow me, you can see my other ideas. Good luck!!!
FOREXCOM:NAS100Education
by iaorozco
1
Forex Session Tendencies Tokyo Session: Liquidity begins coming in from Wellington, New Zealand. The Tokyo session has a higher tendency for ranges to hold- support and resistance to be respected. London Session: Liquidity being furnished throughout Europe. The London session has a proclivity for fat, active moves. New York Session: Can exhibit behaviors from both London or Tokyo sessions. The Overlap is often considered "The most liquid period" of the day. Other useful information: The New York Forex session is one of the most liquid Forex trading sessions. When the US session overlaps with the London Forex market session it is considered to be the most liquid period of the day.The beginning of the New York session is normally more volatile than later in the day. There are different methods traders can use to trade differing levels of volatility. WHAT TIME DOES THE NEW YORK FOREX SESSION OPEN? The New York Forex session opens at 8:00 AM ET and closes at 5:00 PM ET. The ‘overlap’ occurs when the US Forex session overlaps with the London Forex market session. The London Forex market session opens at 3:00 AM ET and closes at 12:00 PM ET, so the overlap occurs between 8:00 AM ET and 12:00 PM ET.
Education
by Anbat
A-B-C Pattern (Bearish entry 2/5)One of my favorite entry patterns on daily, 4 hour or 1 hr chart pattern (can use on lower time frames too) Example of a bearish 4 hour A-B-C pattern GBPJPY attached chart: Rules: 1) Wait for 0 leg to A leg (bearish trend) then 2) Wait for A leg to B leg (bullish pullback back upwards, but not above A price) then 3) Entry once B leg breaks the low of A leg price, with a stop loss comfortably above entry (4 hr chart, so account for that in stop and lot size). 4) B leg to C leg is daily trend and take profit/ set target leg of this pattern. Example chart had a target of 70 pips on 10 pm to 10 am, three 4 hr candles. *This is highest liquidity and volume 12 hrs per day. 1:3 or 20 pip/60 pip risk reward would have worked great.
Education
by Anbat
3
Break Out Range (Entry Pattern 1/5)One of my favorite day time or scalping entry patterns is the breakout of range pattern on hourly time frame. The best times for any entry patterns occur is in between (end of Tokyo) 10 p.m. to 6 a.m (start of New York) PST/CA times- why? high liquidity and volume. This pattern on attached hourly chart, happened end of Tokyo and start of London a prime time to entry a new trade. This set up could have been from a 1:4 or 2:4 set up of risk reward, depending on your plan and strategy and risk management.
Education
by Anbat
BTC/USD ( May Sideways Ranging PA?)I think that Btc/Usd will be in a sideways range in the month of May, in between 55000.0 to 60000.0 ($5000.0) unless some world CraCra event happens. On weekly and monthly Btc/Usd charts- most of the price action has been in between this range, with one spike to $65000.0 last month. Btc/Usd sellers won last month with price action making a long legged red doji candle (undecided) on April chart and most of the strength, I believe still in sell side. Last couple of years price action has been going almost straight up or 90 degrees, this year (2021) will mostly be a consolation one or sideways so their is some kind of balance placed in Btc/Usd market. Note: I do not trade Btc/Usd, but if you do---- good luck!!!
OANDA:BTCUSDEducation
by Anbat
GbpAud London/NY session order blocks (examples)Example of both a bearish and bullish order block that would have helped you day trading the Gbp/Aud pair on 15 minute time frame. This is a very both a high liquidity and volume four hours of day (last four hours before London session closes). Noted on attached chart is following: 1) 1:3 risk/reward set up on a bearish and bullish trade. If you would have utilized a 12.5 pip stop loss vs possible target of 36+ target. These trades would have lasted around a hour in real time to hit targets. 2) Note: Fib retracement indicator on chart, with a reversal in golden zone of 38% to 62% areas. They can/should be used for both trades for entry areas. 3) Price action on 2nd trade had support right above white line or S1 pivot line, which is another confirming indicator.
Education
by Anbat
Sessions (Best Times To Day trade)Visual chart of different daily session: Sydney, Tokyo, London & New York is easier to understand then just read on website. When sessions overlap and when both highest liquidity and highest volume happens per day. If you day trade & keep price action number one and trade during highest liquidity and volume hours area per day, which is the (12 hrs) in between the end of Tokyo session and end of London session, you will keep trading Forex as simple as possible. Use risk management and stop losses always when trading. Please convert noted PST/USA chart times to your time zone.
Education
by Anbat
3x ETF SOXL vs other 1x semi ETFs over various time horizonsI compare SOXL returns with SOXX, SMH, and PSI, all ETFs in the semiconductor space. CONCLUSIONS AND FINDINGS: YTD 2021 SOXL has not provided any net benefit over it's peers. And if you use stop loss orders you've probably lost money on it due to its extreme volatility. Smaller quant ETF fund PSI is the better performer on most/all time horizons YTD or more recent, especially from a risk/reward perspective. Only when comparing SOXL against the others on a time horizon of 1 yr or longer does SOXL outperform it's peers. Importantly however, charts mimic real life only to the extent we make the purchase the entire position at once and don't touch it over the entire time frame. But this is not what most traders do. Thus, I recommend holding SOXL only if you're going to buy it and not set any stop loss orders, touch it, trade it, or even look at it for a year or more. But you probably can't handle that. I can't either. Thus the better, more realistic strategy for most traders is to get PSI or one of the other primary ETFs covering this space.
NASDAQ:SMHEducation
by theagileagent
Per Day 12 Hours Of High Liquidity & Volume Forex is open 24 hours a day, but first 8 hours of new session has slow and low liquidity and volume and last 4 hour of session has slow and low liquidity and volume. Why is first 8 hours mostly ranging and sideways price action, related to Sydney and Tokyo sessions are only ones open for trading and last 4 hours of session is because only session is open is New York, after London has closed for session. * You generally should not trade these times unless you are scalping trades for low pips. Best times (you can convert to your time zone) is from 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. P.S.T/USA- or end of Tokyo session to end of London session. This is where most of the 6 trillion dollars of Forex buying and selling takes place and has highest liquidity and volume every day. Please put a simple volume on any Forex hourly or four hour chart and you will see when high volume is trading (London and NY session, especially overlap 4 hr period before London closes). On noted 4 hour attached chart: You see possible day trading done on 4 hour charts during high liquidity and volume times of day, these trades mostly are reversal back into daily trends from liquidity within the last 8 hours of Tokyo session before London. You can set an sell limit or buy limit trade expecting next 4 hour (10 p.m. to 2 a.m.) candle to reverse back into major trend of week or day. Best day trading is during 12 hours of high liquidity and high volume period. The Forex markets want to get retailers going wrong direction, let price action come to you on either 4 hour or daily time frames- then trade in that trend direction you will profit more and have less stress. Good Luck and Good Trading. Always, use stop losses and risk management when trading Forex.
Education
by Anbat
Should You Use Sessions Indicator?If you are new to trading Forex, should you have sessions indicator on your charts? Yes, 100%. Why, most of the liquidity and volume happens at end of Tokyo session to end of London session. This involved Tokyo/London overlapping one hour and London/New York overlapping four hours. You need to understand that price action during Tokyo session mostly ranges or goes sideways. You need to understand that price action during London session will mostly do a fakey or false move in wrong direction, then start trending. You need to understand that price action during New York session will mostly continue same direction of London session and/or reverse trend. You need to understand that price action after London session closes, will decrease with both liquidity and volume dropping suddenly for rest of session. Note: You need to know that 1st hour of any new sessions have the highest spreads and are not for trading, but for setting up future possible trades. Finally, from 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. PST/USA- either high or low of day will be made, 80% of time- then you can trade in trend direction of day. Sessions Indicator will keep you trading the right pair, at the right price, at the right time of day and during the right sessions. Why, trade AUDJPY during New York Session when both Sydney and Tokyo sessions are closed? Commonsense and keeping trading simple will help your bottom line, in Forex. The sessions indicator will work with any time-frame under 4 hours and keep a visual reminder of what session is open and closed - F.Y.I.
Education
by Anbat
Daily Candles 4 Day Trading StrategyNoted on GBPAUD daily chart are four daily candlestick reversal trade set ups to day trade (one day or two days maximum). Rule: Only use around 100 or more ADR pairs (average daily range) pairs- GBP and EUR pairs are great. Also, use half of daily ADR for all stop losses, now GbpAud ADR is 140 pips, so 1/2 of that is 70 pips at around $8.00/per pip move. Yes, adjust your risk management and lot sizes, if you need too. All you need on chart is the BB or Bollinger Bands (with default settings), as noted on chart are four GBPAUD trades, three sell trades and one buy trade. The profit pips noted on chart are approximate per trade with a stop loss of 70 pips ($560)- on one standard size lot trade. Maybe, that might be too much risk, so use .50 lots or 1/2 macro lot or even .20 lots- whatever you plan, account and risk management can do. Note: This four April trades of profit are around 500 pips x $8.00 = $4,000 dollars, on using one standard size lot setup, adjust risk according to your plan. Rules: 1) Use daily candlestick charts for day trading this two candlestick daily reversal strategy 2) Look for either continuations of trends with weak pullbacks or reversals (at outer bands) 3) Enter any new trades at open (different color candle) of last daily trending candlestick for reversals or weak pullbacks in a trend continuation. 4) Any pairs could work, but high or around 100 ADR pairs work best (Gbp or Eur work best) 5) These trades most of time last one day or maximum two days. Noted On chart mostly trades set ups of 70 pip stop vs. 100 pips, 120 pips, 200 pips and 50 pips, so adjust stop loss depending on four things: Pair traded, Price traded, Session traded and Time Traded. Most set ups were 1: 1.5 to 1:3 almost Risk Reward. Any questions please DM me here at TV/follow. ty
Education
by Anbat
Simple Indicators and Setups #2: Total Bollinger Breakout on D1Continuing the few posts I want to do on basic indicators/setups that I personally use, I'd like to talk about a super effective and very simple chart setup that uses a very common indicator: Bollinger Bands . I'll reiterate that TA is never, ever, ever 100% accurate and wild cards come up that break the mold of even the most reliable setups, so keep that in mind if you decide to trade using these setups; previous results are not guarantees of future performance. Keep this in mind please and always watch out for yourself. Quick Overview of Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands are a price envelope defined by a Simple Moving Average acting as a base (mid line) with upper and lower bands defined that are a set standard deviation from the mid line. The defaults for Bollinger Bands are a baseline of 20 periods for the SMA and 2 standard deviations for the bands. You can alter these to your liking in pretty much any charting software (I don't), but if you do please make sure you know why you're making this change. Where the 200 HMA from my previous post gives you a solid baseline of around where the market has been pricing an underlying over time, the Bollinger Bands provide you with a way to visualize more recent price volatility in a way that can provide you with some extra confirmation if you're looking for overbought or oversold conditions in an underlying. The most basic, generalized way to look at the Bollinger Bands is that the closer price gets to the upper band the more overbought it may be, the closer it gets to the lower band the more oversold it may be. Speaking personally, I use Bollinger Bands as part of my regular charting setup but I use them 99% of the time in conjunction with other indicators and would not personally recommend using them on their own. They should be part of a suite of things you look to that can confirm or disconfirm that a trend is arising. Also keep in mind that there are dozens of different ways to use Bollinger Bands for different strategies but I'm only focusing on one here. The D1 Total Bollinger Breakout This setup uses standard Bollinger Band defaults using a standard Bollinger Band indicator (identical to the default one on TradingView in terms of how it works). On the D1 time scale, you want to find a chart where the daily candle has broken out over the upper or lower Bollinger Band completely. This means that the entire OHLC candle including the wicks and body are 100% outside the price envelope . This chart setup is incredibly reliable. I use it mostly for bearish reversal plays (selling calls against the underlying for the most part) but it works just as well for bullish reversals as well in my backtesting. Even during the COVID crash when all hell was breaking loose it still called out a bullish reversal on AMEX:SPY : As with pretty much everything you'll see me post, I direct most of these setups toward semi-boomery large to mega-cap stocks and some limited non-memey midcaps. I invite you to take your favorite stock in this category and do your own backtesting to see how reliable this setup is before using it. Nothing is 100% in trading, but I can say that after my years of using this setup it's only ever not panned out for me one time and that was with the recent pop on NYSE:WSM that I honestly still can't wrap my head around. How to Scan for/Use this Setup My opinion is that the best way to use this is by having a stable of stocks you know and watch regularly where you develop a feel for the price action over time. However, to scan more widely for this setup you can use something like the built in TradingView "Top Gainers" stock screener and order by the largest percent gain. On most days there's any number of stocks experiencing this kind of pop, but that doesn't mean you want to use this on all of them. Certain stocks like biotech pennies blow over the upper band regularly but I would never in a million years short one of those things considering how quickly pump and dump groups can squeeze something up. As with anything, you HAVE TO be responsible for yourself and do your research before entering into any kind of trade, especially if you decide to go short on something. The way I personally play this chart setup is by selling options. Massive volatility swings like those that lead to the type of setup I'm outlining here lead to higher IV on options which in turn leads to inflated options premiums. Certain options strategies also provide more defined risk than you would have with, for example, simply shorting a stock hoping for a bearish reversal. You always want to be thinking about the times where things don't go how you plan and manage your risk accordingly. The psychology behind this is honestly fairly simple. Given the types of assets I use this strategy on, these aren't fly by night operations they're normally established companies with a broad base of investor support so a big drop down normally translates into at least a next day BTFD event as longs DCA down. Alternatively, if you are holding a stock that explodes 10% in a day, you would almost certainly be tempted to take some profits on that to reinvest to other positions you want to build up. From a psychological standpoint, these are both rational moves on the part of the market and are (in my experience) fairly reliable. And that's it. That's the whole thing. Look for stocks where the daily candle (including the wicks) are completely outside the price envelope of the standard default Bollinger Bands (the farther away they blast the better). It's about as simple as they get in terms of setups. If you find this useful, please feel free to follow me on Twitter as well.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by UnknownUnicorn16914442
47