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W-patterns

Trade what you see, not what you hear.In this video I look over a few indices and the VIX. There is a problem i.e. the news is saying one thing, but the charts are showing something rather different. I look at some trendlines, channels and patterns. After many years in trading I'm no longer obsessed with the names of various patterns. The overall pattern is what interests me more. The news is about short term reporting. Rarely do popular news reports analyse trends in a robust way. Today I looked at some overview video report on the indices, from a reputable brokerage site. Not surprisingly the commentator was going on about MACD, RSI, Stochastics and support lines. There were other things considered like non-farm payrolls and jobs reports in the US. But even when going over the charts, he missed the obvious channels and other features heading south. This is the danger of listening to these broadcasts. You are at the mercy of the reporter who only has a limited time to assess the markets. Additionally all reporters hold their individual unconscious biases and blind spots. ' Am I biased in this video? ', I'm asking myself. I probably am. But all I know is that I'm seeing certain patterns that everybody else can see. The patterns are relevant to obvious trends, as they present themselves at this time. Note I said 'at this time' because the picture can always change. This post and video is predictive of nothing. I don't do predictions and likewise I set no targets. I simply follow trends and exploit patterns where I see them. When I enter a trade, the stop-loss truly means that I've lost that money. Although I don't gamble, by analogy when one goes to a casino and puts the chips on the table one knows that is the loss. So that's how I approach the loss in my stop-losses. As 'the man' once said, " Trade what you see ". I'll also add, "Don't trade what you hear ." (namely the news, blogs and gurus aplenty). The examples shown in the video is not a recommendation or encouragement to trade. Your losses are your own if you enter a trade based on any position shown.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
The Big Question - where is price going?In this video I share my experience on the Big Question in the minds of lots of traders. This is not particularly about GBPJPY. I use the 15 min time frame only as an example. I point out that candlestick charts can be deceptive in giving an idea about price, that may be erroneous. It is natural especially for new traders to see a number of unfavourable candles and think that 'price is going down'. This is human nature. When we see short term patterns we tend to believe that they mean something. I show a bit on how I use my indicators to assess probabilities. I also change my perspective into higher time frames. The trends on higher time frames in general tend to overrule what happens on lower time frames (but not always obviously). My answer to the Big Question, is that price is probably going in the direction of the bigger trends. In other words it is pretty useless narrowing focus on one part of a chart. The trend is your friend in determining probabilities. Find your true friend and stick with your friend, is what I always say.
Education
by Captain_Walker
3
Zone of Turmoil & a BFXData observation shareBitcoin failed to close above $7200 during this most recent consolidation period. It has now fallen below $6900. If it was going to launch and make a bull comeback, then it would have happened already so those who claim it's going to launch now are just engaging in wishful thinking. Usually when there is a reversal in bitcoin it happens immediately, not drawn out over days. I am not going to suggest a price target because we are now entering a zone of turmoil. There will be mass confusion, particularly by the overly bullish and those who are facing fear and despair over losing their initial investments. People will want to buy at any level between here and 6k because they want to believe this is the bottom. And maybe it is? But bitcoin is an entity unto itself that even the biggest whales can't control once the momentum gets going. All I know is that if we break below the dark green channel support, it's not going to be pleasant. If you look at the weekly charts btc is still a fair way off returning to the "mean". I wouldn't be surprised if we do fall to 5k or less as some predict. However in terms of this "death cross" that occurred on 31 March 2018, I do believe it will be a temporary situation. The 50/200 Moving Averages will cross back after we plummet a bit further. Crypto is too new and too big now to enter a long term bear market. Even though governments and banks are against it, who do you think is buying up in droves? Ironically, crypto is bad but money is good and no power/control hungry entity is going to give up a chance to both make money and control the global population further. So following on from yesterday's BFXData knowledge share (which are my personal observations), here is the one for today: What do the BFX bots know: They know that the idea is to accumulate everyone else's bitcoin/money. They know how the main indicators work. They don't use them because they don't need to visualise them, but they know that everybody else uses them and so are calculated by the bot server to be taken into account with every trade strategy. They know that candles are significant to humans and so the movement of price in each minute ultimately determines the direction of the trend. They know that humans make decisions based on the closure of candles on certain time frames. For example 1 day, 4 hour, 2 hour, 1 hour, 30 min, 15 min, 5 min, 1 min. More weight is given to candles closing on bigger time frames. They know that market psychology ultimately drive MACD Sometimes when the MACD is around the 20 (low trading volume) to 40 (high trading volume) mark in either direction, the bots will stabilise the price (buy and sell walls at 10 cent differences) to move the MACD to the neutral or opposite areas based on what the overall whale strategy is. The price will not move significantly, but the MACD will. This is calculated divergence (just coined). This usually only applies to 1/3/5 minute time frames. Larger time frames are often normal market trends. While the MACD is undergoing this normalisation process, if the price moves beyond what the bot wants the price range to be (usually +/- $20), the bot will buy or sell the price back to what it wants. You can see these small reversal candles on the one minute time frame. Sometimes it takes the bot a little while to react, maybe 30 seconds. This is also a method to prolong the closure of the current candle in order to make the next candle appear to be more green or red. Once the MACD lines start to overlap, large buying/selling movement in the preferred direction will begin again.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by hazloahora
1
Harmonic patterns: Gartley, Bat, Butterfly, Crab and SharkBITFINEX:BTCUSD Dear friends, As I have promised, I present you my next weekly training article. Some time ago I started studying harmonic patterns, book by Scott Carney “Harmonic Trading” proved to be very useful. Having studied it thoroughly, I tried to sum up my knowledge and write the summary in a series of article, starting from the present one. Let’s start... For those, who have never read about harmonic patterns, I’ll describe the basic rules: 1. All harmonic patterns are linked to Fibonacci retracement levels 2. Harmonic patterns work in all timeframes 3. The most common pattern is XABCD, where: (XA) is a move, where point (X) is the start of the trend and (A) is its top (AB) is trend retracement, and (B) marks the retracement extreme (BC) is trend extension with the peak at point (C) (CD) ending move, opposite line (AB) This pattern looks like this: 4. To start working with the pattern, it is necessary to know the coordinates of points (X), (A), (B), (C) in the chart history. Only having the four coordinates you can identify pattern type and its properties. 5. Pattern points should fulfill the following conditions Pattern type Gartley |B of XA 0.618 | C of BA 0.382-0.886 | D of AB 1.272-1.618 | D of XA 0.786| Bat |B of XA 0.382-0.5 | C of BA 0.382-0.886 | D of AB 1.618-2.618 | D of XA 0.886| Alternative Bat |B of XA 0.382| C of BA 0.382-0.886 | D of AB 2.0-3.618 | D of XA 1.13| Butterfly |B of XA 0.786| C of BA 0.382-0.886 | D of AB 1.618-2.214 | D of XA 1.272| Crab |B of XA 0.382-0.618| C of BA 0.382-0.886 | D of AB 2.24-3.618 | D of XA 1.618| Deep crab |B of XA 0.886| C of BA 0.382-0.886 | D of AB 2.0-3.618 | D of XA 1.618| Shark |B of XA 0.382-0.618| C of BA 1.13-1.618| D of AB 1.618-2.214 | D of XA 0.886-1.13| Fibonacci levels of corresponding moves are indicated in the table 6. Accurate following the set parameters of the pattern. Any deviation sharply reduces the targets likelihood (it is desirable to avoid deviation from the set parameters of more than 0.05) After you identified the pattern type, it is necessary to find... 1. Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). Any pattern has a start and an end point. A perfect Harmonic analysis feature is its quite clear identification of potential pattern end point. As harmonic analysis is reversal patterns, trend end point is called potential reversal zone. This level is identified with Fibonacci levels within the rage, studied by the pattern (see the ranges in the table) A very important moment is the price move at the level. If the price doesn’t response to PRZ, it signals a high potential of the current move, which makes the whole pattern questionable. 2. Stop Loss Zone (SLZ) A key risk management moment in trading is the identification of the acceptable level of losses. In harmonic trading this zone is outside the potential reverse zone (PRZ). At this point it becomes clear, that the pattern hasn’t worked out and it is necessary to limit the losses, revise the forecast and correct the mistakes. 3. Profit Protection Zone (PPZ) The most important trading rule: "“Never let your profits turn into your losses” Following the rule, before entering a trade, profit protection zone needs to be identified. That is the point, where you will fix a part your profits to ensure breakeven if the trend reverses and SLZ is reached.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Hypov
2