Trading Psychology 📉📉📉✅ If you asked me to distill trading down to its simplest form, I would say that it is a pattern recognition numbers game
We use market analysis to identify the patterns, define the risk, and determine when to take profits. The trade either works or it doesn't.
✅ In any case, we go on to die next trade. It's that simple, but it's certainly not easy. In fact, trading is probably the hardest thing you'll ever attempt to be successful at. That's not because it requires intellect; quite the contrary! But because the more you think you know, the less successful you'll be.
✅ The mechanical stage of trading is specifically designed to build the kind of trading skills (trust, confidence, and thinking in probabilities
The first step in the process of creating consistency is to start noticing what you're thinking, saying, and doing
Creating a belief that "I am a consistent winner" is the primary objective
🎯 I AM A CONSISTENT WINNER BECAUSE:
1. I objectively identify my edges.
2. I predefine the risk of every trade.
3. I completely accept risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.
4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success an
d, therefore, I never violate them.
🎯 The greater your confidence, the easier it will be to execute your trades
To even start this process, you have to want consistency so much that you would be willing to give up all the other reasons, motivations, or agendas you have for trading that aren't consistent with the process of integrating the beliefs that create consistency. A clear, intense desire is an absolute prerequisite if you're going to make this process work for you.
The object of this exercise is to convince yourself that trading is just a simple game of probabilities ✅✅✅
Bitcoinprice
Trade Defensively 🔰🔰🔰 🔰 Trading Defensively
• Proper Lot Size
Stop changing the lot size on each trade you take based on the ,, confluences,, your risk should be pre-determined and fixed.
Example you risk only 0.50% from your account on each trade
• Take Profits before News Release
Number one goal is to protect your equity, news can bring high volatility into the markets and random big moves. It is better to fix your profit or move your stoploss to breakeven before important news release
• Use Trailing Stops
Secure the profits and let your winners run, you can apply this strategy when you are already in profit and want to squeeze more from the trade
• Multiple Take Profits
Remember that a win is still a WIN, you dont need big profits to be profitable in the market. You need small consistent wins and over time you will see the difference
Was this information valuable ?
Why i TRADE ✅💸 Why i Trade ?
Trading is a serious endeavour where you meet with the financial elites of the world, i will give you couple reasons why i trade and why do i recommend it for you as well.
✅ Be your own BOSS
You don't have a BOSS, you are your own boss. You have to be very disciplined because no one is looking at you to be productive
✅ Freedom of Time
You have the Freedom of Time to work when you want, from where you want. As the advantage above you have to stay very disciplined because it takes time to acquire the skill
✅ Travel
You can travel whenever you want as you are your own boss, this happens only if you are a profitable trader. I dont recommend you to trade during travelling as your focus level hardly decrease
What any advantage you see ?
Two Biggest Trading Mistakes 📉📉📉✅ Two Biggest Mistakes in Trading .
✅ No STOP LOSS Run the risk of incurring a much bigger loss than expected may lead to wishfull thinking and end up holding and hoping may cause panic selling when trade goes against your direction, no stop loss trading in the long term will kill your account in the short term you can survive.
✅Overtrading - Higher change of losing focus as there are too many traders placed wil be emotionally overwhelmed to perform optimally, placing oversized positions than one can handle financially
What do you think ?
How to Approach the Market by LevelsIn this educational post, I'll be demonstrating how you can approach the market with simple technical analysis techniques, and logic based on simple probabilities.
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Identifying Support and Resistance
- The first thing you want to do, when you begin with a clean chart with nothing on it, is identify support and resistance levels.
- There are a plethora of ways to do this - you can do it using technical indicators, heat maps, order books, etc
- The more I chart, the more I find it convenient and accurate to identify support and resistance zones based on past price action.
- Thus, for this example, in lieu of using complicated indicators or moving averages, I've decided to simply identify key levels of support and resistance.
- Let's begin with the lowest point of support at $40.7k
- This is a level that has been tested countless times, both as support and resistance, during this entire trading range of $30-60k since last year.
- As we are currently trading above this level, this key region plays the role of support.
- If bears manage to push us down below this level, it would provide confirmation that further downside is highly probable.
- Next, we have the red line marking resistance at $45k levels.
- We have tested this region twice already this year, and failed to break and close above it.
- Thus, this level represents local resistance that we need to break and close above, in order to continue on with the bullish reversal.
- We're then faced with the resistance at $47.2k, which is Bitcoin's opening price for the 2022 yearly candle.
- The opening and closing prices of candles on the weekly, monthly, and yearly candles can play an important role as support or resistance.
- Taking this into account, if we were to break above $45k and close above those regions, it would be very likely for us to continue upwards and test $47.2k
- Then we have $53.7k, a key level of support-turned-resistance.
- We can see how important this level is, as the price dumped down to $42k immediately last year, when support at $53k broke.
- Thus, this is a key level of resistance that must be taken out before we can rally towards the $60k ranges.
Logical Approach Using Probabilities
- It's important to understand that predicting the market's future price action is impossible
- And timing the market, while possible, is extremely difficult.
- Thus, the best approach retail investors can take in understanding the market is one based on probabilities.
- "If X, then Y" is all you need to know.
- So for instance, applying this logic on the chart above, we would see something like this:
- "If Bitcoin breaks down below $40.7k, then we could expect further downside to new lower lows."
- "If Bitcoin breaks and closes above $45k, then we could expect it to test the yearly open resistance at $47.2k."
Conclusion
This market is difficult for old and new investors and traders alike. There are a lot of external factors combined - rate hikes, regional conflict, etc - that the market hasn't experienced yet. Bitcoin's price action is not extremely predictable at these levels, hence the best measured approach to take in understanding the market is to take it by levels. Identify key regions and levels of support and resistance, and look for confirmation and invalidation. In my personal opinion, I think that the bottom is either in, or that we're very close to the bottom. But until there's clear confirmation that we're out of the woods, I remain cautiously bullish.
🔥 Types of Analysis 📉 In trading and investing there are 2 t🔥 Types of Analysis
📉 In trading and investing there are 2 types of analysis a trader can make to have an edge and generate trading ideas.
📉 There is no such thing as technical analysis is better than fundamental or viceversa, personally i use fundamental analysis to understand what to buy or what to sell on a mid-long term perspective and technical analysis basically shows me when to enter the trade at a better price level.
‼️ Fundamental Analysis
• Using of the financial statements, news and events to generate trading ideas
• Mid-Long term approach
• Usually investors/traders use this for investing or position trading that could last for couple months
‼️ Technical Analysis
• Use chart, volume and price action
• Short-mid term approach
• Usually people use this for intra-day or intra-week moves
Which one you like more ?
Why 90% of Traders Lose ? ❌ Going Full Margin
Risk management is the most important in this game because it keeps you alive, keeps your account fresh during bad market conditions.
Learn risk management first to understand how to protect your capital first of all and then learn a strategy
You have to know your risk numbers in terms of
• Risk per trade
• Daily Drawdown Limit
• Weekly Drawdown Limit
• Monthly Drawdown Limit
✅ Buying SIGNALS
Buying signals and expecting overnight succes could be bad for your trading journey, don't expect anything from anybody and start to be your signal generator
✅ Get Rich Quickly
Trading business its not getting rich overnight, its getting rich for sure on a long term basis. Don't expect succes overnight its not gonna happen i promise you.
• Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Give it time and simply commit to the process
✅ Not Sticking to the Plan
Your trading plan is your trading bible and principles, you should respect it no matter what. Your trading plan its the only thing you can control in the markets as you can't control the price movement.
Make the plan and trade the plan.
What do you think ?
Momentum in the Markets ✅✅✅✅ I will look at the momentum to understand if price has power to move towards my take profit area or no, a perfect scenario is when i enter a long or a short order the momentum should increase from candlestick to candlestick not decreasing, increasing momentum meaning that price has fuel and it is not exhausted.
🎯 Increasing momentum - bulls/bears has power, they have fuel to push price
🎯 Decreasing momentum - bulls/bears are losing power, they dont have fuel they are exhausted.
‼️ Take a look at this concept in HTF starting from H4 - MN
Kindly see the photos attached with bullish/bearish decreasing and increasing momentum.
Bitcoin's Market Cycle Explained Through Elliott WavesThis is an educational post on Elliott Impulse Wave structures, and how the theory can be applied to Bitcoin's chart, in order for us to identify the overall market trend.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Basic Elliott Wave Structure
- 80% of the time, an Elliott Impulse Wave would have a structure as the diagram demonstrated above.
- After the first impulse wave, we have wave 2, which is a short term corrective wave, play out.
- Most of the time, the second wave demonstrates a zig zag pattern, in which we can count ABC waves.
- When the second wave is a zigzag, there's a high probability that the fourth wave demonstrates a complex correction, such as a double three (WXY), or a triple three (WXYXZ).
- Also, when the second wave is a zig zag pattern, there's a high probability that the length of the third wave is 1.618x of the first wave's length.
- In this case, there's also a high probability that the length of the fifth wave is equal to that of the first wave.
- Keep in mind that these are all probabilities. There are no rules set in stone that state that waves have to move a certain way, in a certain length, but they tend to demonstrate this structure under certain conditions
Bitcoin's Elliott Wave Structure
- However, as you can notice from Bitcoin's Elliott Wave count chart above, Bitcoin's second wave did not demonstrate a zig zag pattern.
- Instead, Bitcoin demonstrated a triple three (WXYXZ) leading to a sharp final drop caused by the Covid outbreak.
- When the second wave demonstrates a triple three pattern, there's a high probability that the fourth wave demonstrates a zig zag pattern.
- Also, when the second wave is a complex correction, there's a high probability that the third wave's length is 2.618x of the first wave's length.
- Additionally, when the second wave is a complex correction, there's a high probability that the final wave's length is 1.618x of the first wave's length.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart Elliott Wave Analysis
- Taking into consideration the Elliott Wave structures explained above, we can now see that Bitcoin's trend can be explained by the second diagram.
- We saw a complex correction (triple three, WXYXZ) pattern on Bitcoin's second wave.
- We're currently completing wave 4, which seems to be a running flat pattern (ABC).
- While this isn't exactly a zig zag pattern, it's a variation of the zig zag pattern, and part of the larger concept of simple corrections.
- For a more in-depth explanation on this corrective trend for the short term, make sure to check out my previous analysis by clicking the chart below:
Revealing My Secret Method: Technical Symmetry Analysis
Summary
I believe that there's an extremely high probability that Bitcoin's bull run isn't over. While December's price action may be rather disappointing, as we're in the process of completing the final corrective wave within a bigger impulse trend, we could expect a parabolic rally as we move towards Q1 of 2022. Using Elliott Waves isn't about accurately predicting the exact price and period of an asset's price action. While a lot of people try to correct each other on "wrong counts", unless the general rules are kept, there really isn't a strictly correct way or incorrect way of using this theory as a tool. In my opinion, Elliott Waves are best used on longer time frames, to identify the overall trend, and which point of the market cycle we are at.
MARKET STRUCTURE 🗒🗒🗒I am not the best painter, but i tried to show you the difference between the structure that we have in every market. And it doesnt depend if its crypto/stocks or forex everything is the same in terms of structure.
Trade in the direction of the HTF MARKET STRUCTURE.
Do you want more examples like that ? Comment below ..
BITCOIN DOMINANCE EXPLAINEDTo be successful in crypto you need to know how the market works and why it’s behaving like it is.
Bitcoin is the first ever cryptocurrency and will be the biggest a long time. This means that what bitcoin does will have a large impact on the market. But there are also times where every coin does it’s own thing.
Here is where Btc.d comes in.
Simply put, when bitcoin dominance is high, it means that almost every move is similar in the whole market. While when it’s low, we don’t need to worry too much about what bitcoin is doing if we see a good trade in some other coin.
We can take advantage of this!
Btc.d is surprisingly accurate with technical analysis. In the chart you can see two boxes where I would either buy bitcoin or altcoins.
You still have to find good setups and everything, but it gives a good indication of it’s either altcoins or bitcoins time to shine!
Good luck traders! Leave a like if you found this helpful <3
Crypto Explainer - What is Bitcoin (BTC) + Price AnalysisAlthough Bitcoin is very well known today, many still don't understand it fully. Here's a quick explainer of what Bitcoin is, why the big fuss about eco-friendliness is surfacing and affecting its prices, and what's happening with Bitcoin's price.
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that can be sent from user to user, without any intermediary. The Bitcoin token runs on the Bitcoin Blockchain, which facilitates the transfer of those tokens thanks to a peer-to-peer network. In order to maintain this infrastructure, miners (aka distributed computers) make sure transactions tally and are processed correctly. In turn, they would get a small fee from the transaction they processed.
There are many debates about “inefficiency and eco-friendliness” in the crypto community today. And that’s the main weak point for Bitcoin. This year 2021, Elon Musk criticized Bitcoin, saying that it is unsustainable and bad for the environment, as miners who maintain the Bitcoin blockchain require a tremendous amount of electricity.
On the other hand, what if Bitcoin mining improves and we find more efficient ways to mine in the future? Any improvement in the fundamentals leads to better Bitcoin valuations.
This dilemma paved the way for other altcoins to emerge and solve this scalability problem. But Bitcoin remains the biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, as its valuation surpassed 1 Trillion recently.
Invest responsibly, and always do your own research.
CryptoTicker team
How to Use the Bitcoin Dominance Chart to Maximize ProfitsIn this post, I'll be explaining a simple approach to the cryptocurrency market, and how you can refer to the Bitcoin Dominance Chart (BTC.D) to maximize profits.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
- Bitcoin Dominance is simply an indicator that demonstrates the percentage of Bitcoin's market cap relative to the entire market cap.
- When Bitcoin dominance is high, it indicates that Bitcoin's market cap is relatively larger compared to that of other altcoins, and vice versa.
- So when Bitcoin dominance rises, it could either indicate that:
- Bitcoin is rising at a faster pace than altcoins (during an uptrend)
- Altcoins are correcting at a faster pace than Bitcoin (during a downtrend).
- Vice versa, a drop in Bitcoin dominance could indicate that:
- Bitcoin is dropping at a faster pace than altcoins (during a downtrend)
- Or that altcoins are rising at a faster pace than Bitcoin (during an uptrend).
- Understanding this, you can refer to the Bitcoin dominance chart to rebalance your portfolio according to market situations.
Historical Price Action
- Above, I've marked Bitcoin's price action (black), relative to that of ETH (blue), which represents the overall altcoin market.
- The captions in the chart best explain the logic behind the price action, and how dominance is affected by it.
- What's important to understand is that the situation is relative: a high dominance does not necessarily indicate that buying altcoins is a good idea.
- It's important to understand the overall market cycle and structure to determine which regions are good entries.
Anatomy of a Market Cycle
- Above, we have the market cycle explained using Elliott Waves.
- The market never moves in straight lines: It goes through phases of impulse waves, and corrective waves.
- Elliott Waves also have very strict rules that must be kept.
- Or else, the wave count is considered negated.
- Here are the rules:
- Waves 1,3 and 5 are always with the trend
- Waves 2,4 are always against the trend
- Wave 2 can never drop below wave 1’s low
- Wave 3 can never be the smallest wave
- Wave 4 can never drop into the range of wave 2 (unless it is part of a diagonal)
- With this in mind, we can now take a look at where Bitcoin is, from the larger wave count.
Bitcoin Market Cycle using Elliott Waves
- We can start counting the wave from $3.1k, when Bitcoin bottomed out around the end of 2018
- Based on this wave count, it could be said that the move up to $64k was the end of the 3rd impulse wave.
- We have recently completed the 4th corrective wave, and are on our way to complete the 5th impulse wave.
- As to why I have selected the $200k region and June 2022 as my price and time period target, please refer to my previous analysis below:
Conclusion
Bitcoin dominance is currently forming a double bottom on the weekly. With Bitcoin's wave count lining up for an impulse move upwards, I expect Bitcoin to rally upwards, outperforming other altcoins in the short-mid term. As Bitcoin paves way for the entire crypto market cap by breaking through all time high levels in Q4, we could see Bitcoin dominance reach resistance around the 60-70% range. At that point, given that the broader market cycle isn't over, it would be a good point adjust your portfolio, and scale profits from Bitcoin into altcoins for maximum returns.
If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content!
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
A lesson in Revenge Trading"Cut your losses short, but let your winners ride!"
We have heard that quote, one and a million times, it's one of the first things you hear when you start trading, a quote almost as known as
"Buy low, sell high"
And why is it so important and so widespread?.
The reason is pretty simple: You need to make more on your winning trades, to compensate all your losses and still make a profit.
Sounds pretty simple right?
Your win ratio and Risk to Reward are your most important stats,
Well it's easier said than done, and today I learned something about that coupled with revenge trading.
But what is revenge trading?
It's as simple as looking to make quick profits in a quick and aggressive way, after suffering losses, revenge trading also involves forgetting your own trading rules and risk management.
Anyone experienced trader can tell you the same, revenge trading is one of the worst things you can do and one of the fastest ways to losing your ENTIRE ACCOUNT
You can wipe out, months and even years, of savings and trading profits in a manner of hours or even minutes.
So when you take a loss, you should step away for a while, review what you are doing and get back in the game with a clear head.
In this case, I didn't take losses, I actually did make some profits
BUT I was angry that I didn't make all the profits from the top to the actual bottom.
So I revenge traded, even though I was up quite well in the day.
Instead of even following my own earlier analysis (linked below) I decided that the best way to make quick profits, was by trying to time the absolute bottom and get a high leverage long in there.
Not only I was increasing the leverage I was also increasing the risk, by trading against the trend and trying to time the exact moment the market reversed.
I didn't manage as you can see in the chart.
The lesson is pretty simple: Don't ever revenge trade and don't let good trades that weren't perfect enough make you become irrational.
I could have pretty good profits today, but I let myself become my own worst enemy.
ALWAYS PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK MANAGEMENT IS VITAL TO TRADING
🚀 Lesson From A ProOnce a trader from a large forex trading desk explained his main trading daily routine.
He started his day placing a large order to test the closest price resistance, waiting for the market to react. If the market moved in the direction of his trade, he was happy with a nice profit. On the other hand, if the resistance proved to be solid, he would have closed the previous trade with a small loss and opened a new one of double the size in the other direction. Eventually, the profit could have been even larger.
No matter what asset class you are trading, the basic principles of demand and supply are always the leading indicators to understand where the trend is heading next.
Looking at Bitcoin's chart, this applies perfectly. The price has been moving with relatively low volatility for over one week now. The moves may seem random, but they make a lot of sense at a closer look. The price tends to consolidate into tight ranges, which are tested frequently. Once a breakout occurs and fails, that is the signal that it will likely move in the opposite direction.
Once you break out the price action into blocks, it becomes easier to understand how supply and demand are distributing.
Remember, the price eventually chases liquidity, so take your position in the direction of the liquidity areas, and plan your risk management accordingly.
Trading such choppy market conditions may be stressful and frustrating. The good news is that automated trading may add more value to your portfolio, especially in these times.
4 Ways to Trade Bitcoin!Hello my small TV community!
Today I've prepared a chart where I will be showing you my approach to current Bitcoin price action and how I usually trade.
I love to trade ranges as I have a lot success with them, not only with Crypto assets.
Usually I am not opened to all four trades, (usually I just follow the trend, when the overall trend is uptrend I just look for buy opportunities) but this time it's different.
Why it's different?
Because Bitcoin is saying that the overall daily trend is a downtrend, meanwhile the overall weekly trend is an uptrend so I am opened to all of these four trades! Mixed signals.
I only look to buy or sell at the edges of the range, I never enter a trade in the middle of the range. I wait for a better opportunity, rather than taking a bad one. (Even if it would lead to a profit!)
Which one is your favorite, or which one will you be taking? Let me know.
Pi Cycle Indicator From ScratchHi traders!
As you know, BTC has made all time high not so far ago. That’s why we decided to tell you about one of the most powerful indicators that helps traders to recognize the market reverse after peaking. Well, today we’ll speak Pi Cycle Top Indicator .
The indicator consists of two Moving averages: 350DMA*2 and 111DMA. In fact, 350/111=3,153 which is really close to Pi=3,142. Probably, it demonstrates the cyclicality of Bitcoin. Moreover, it is confirmed by last 3 cycles of BTC market and all times the indicator gave a signal, trend reversed.
How to work with Pi Cycle indicator?
When the 111 moving average reaches the 350DMA*2 it means that BTC is on its peak and it’s time to quit the position.
However, we’d advice you to use it with other indicators and oscillators, to look for the trend reverse or continuation patterns and so on.
DISCLAMER : Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
Use this chart to predict Altseason in the Crypto market. Use the BTC.D chart to see where capital is flowing in the Crypto market... Into Bitcoin? or out of Bitcoin and into Altcoins.
We are at a key decision point for the market right now so you can be a step ahead of the market if you are watching this chart in particular.
How to Catch a Falling Bitcoin KnifeAnother Ultra Long Term chart ( I hate doing short term trades !)
Here is a VERY IMPORTANT quote from Jason Shapiro from the book “Unknown Market Wizards” by Jack Schwager:
" Everyone understands that the market is a discounting mechanism. What people don't understand is that the discounting mechanism is not the price, it is participation. Its not that the price has gone from 50 to 100 and thus the bullish fundamentals are discounted. Its about everyone is long and hence bullish fundamentals are discounted. An example: when amazon stock was about 700-800 everyone said it was ridiculous, calling it a bubble. It was clear though that most people didn't own it else they would not call it a bubble. The stock is now trading above 2300 based solely on participation."
So here is a take on participation (measured using VPVR) over two BTC bull runs (signaled in the chart with a 50-100 MA cross) :
A: Participants who think halving is bullish accumulate thinking (rightly so far) doing so will be a low risk trade.
B: Participants add on to existing positions on bullish confirmation that halving has caused a price rise, long term bears with a functioning pre-frontal cortex jump in.
C: Participants who bought the top in the previous cycle try to get rid of their trauma seeing that price is back at their buy price. Buyers buy their bags. People who are hyper intelligent rationalize that previous top should be the new resistance sell. Too smart they are. The real resistance was Price level B.
D: Participants who think they will buy BTC when it crashes below previous ATH, fomo at these levels after BTC has a near vertical rally, offering no point of entry. Some folks who sold at C buy back again, continuing to rationalize that at least they averted a “potential” bearish scenario.
E: WELCOME NOOBIES
People who do not have the stomach of bearing pain for long term gain, sell at break-even OR at a loss. So two patterns emerge:
1. BUY > price goes down (trauma) > price goes up (hope) > SELL (relief) , OR
2. BUY > price goes up (euphoria) > price goes down (shock) > SELL (relief)
Next bear market bottom: Placing some bids around D and E to catch a falling knife seems to be a good idea. Average in of course coz you never know if price will actually reach D and E. Participants change over time. And as you I show in my display picture: No Pain, No Lambo😊
Bitcoin - Bearish Engulfing Pattern Definition and TacticsWhat is a Bearish Engulfing Pattern?
A bearish engulfing pattern is a technical chart pattern that signals lower prices to come. The pattern consists of an up (white or green) candlestick followed by a large down (black or red) candlestick that eclipses or "engulfs" the smaller up candle. The pattern can be important because it shows sellers have overtaken the buyers and are pushing the price more aggressively down (down candle) than the buyers were able to push it up (up candle).
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- A bearish engulfing pattern can occur anywhere, but it is more significant if it occurs after a price advance. This could be an uptrend or a pullback to the upside with a larger downtrend.
- Ideally, both candles are of substantial size relative to the price bars around them. Two very small bars may create an engulfing pattern, but it is far less significant than if both candles are large.
- The real body—the difference between the open and close price—of the candlesticks is what matters. The real body of the down candle must engulf the up candle.
- The pattern has far less significance in choppy markets.
What Does the Bearish Engulfing Pattern Tell You?
A bearish engulfing pattern is seen at the end of some upward price moves. It is marked by the first candle of upward momentum being overtaken, or engulfed, by a larger second candle indicating a shift toward lower prices. The pattern has greater reliability when the open price of the engulfing candle is well above the close of the first candle, and when the close of the engulfing candle is well below the open of the first candle. A much larger down candle shows more strength than if the down candle is only slightly larger than the up candle.
The pattern is also more reliable when it follows a clean move higher. If the price action is choppy or ranging, many engulfing patterns will occur but they are unlikely to result in major price moves since the overall price trend is choppy or ranging.
Before acting on the pattern, traders typically wait for the second candle to close, and then take action on the following candle. Actions include selling a long position once a bearish engulfing pattern occurs, or potentially entering a short position.
If entering a new short position, a stop loss can be placed above the high of the two-bar pattern.
Astute traders consider the overall picture when utilizing bearish engulfing patterns. For example, taking a short trade may not be wise if the uptrend is very strong. Even the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern may not be enough to halt the advance for long. Yet, if the overall trend is down, and the price has just seen a pullback to the upside, a bearish engulfing pattern may provide a good shorting opportunity since the trade aligns with the longer-term downtrend.
Limitations of Using a Bearish Engulfing Pattern
Engulfing patterns are most useful following a clean upward price move as the pattern clearly shows the shift in momentum to the downside. If the price action is choppy, even if the price is rising overall, the significance of the engulfing pattern is diminished since it is a fairly common signal.
The engulfing or second candle may also be huge. This can leave a trader with a very large stop loss if they opt to trade the pattern. The potential reward from the trade may not justify the risk.
Establishing the potential reward can also be difficult with engulfing patterns, as candlesticks don't provide a price target. Instead, traders will need to use other methods, such as indicators or trend analysis, for selecting a price target or determining when to get out of a profitable trade.
RISK MANAGEMENT : Not more than 1%Many traders would have you believe that a certain trade or indicator is the best way to manage your risk in the Crypto market. But the truth is, the best risk management strategy, is self-discipline.
Specifically, as a trader, you must never risk more than 1% of your total capital on a single trade.
The main reason for this rule is to minimize capital losses in case of harsh market conditions.
By adhering to this rule, you would need to lose 100 trades in a row to wipe out your account. You could even implement stop loss orders to further minimize such losses. Trailing stop loss has proven itself to be the life saver.
Thus, if you risk 1%, you should set your profit goal on each successful trade to 1.5 – 2% or more. When making several trades a day, gaining a few percentage points each day is entirely possible, even if you only win half of your trades.
Trading is about preserving your capital as much as it is gaining profit. By controlling your losses, you can endure tough market conditions and be ready for profitable opportunities once they appear.