How to Catch a Trend? Deep Explanation on a Real SituationGood Morning traders! Interesting idea today regarding the NZD/JPY pair.
This post is aimed to all the trend followers, since it implies a breakout of an interesting ceiling. This pair has been consolidating in the current retracement for more than two months, and we can already begin to see intentions of a breakout in the short term.
Why do we say this?
🔸Since March 25, the minor trend is clearly bullish. This determines that there is an interesting demand, and it is possible that we will see a brekaout soon. The target of the potential movement is in the next Resistance zone, at 84,000. We determined this based on the analysis of the Weekly chart:
🔸Well, the above is just an analysis. The question is, how are we going to trade this movement?
🔸In the 4H chart we will plan the setup. It involves a corrective move in a throwback towards the broken zone, and then the corresponding momentum. It has a GREAT potential if it happens, since it can be a trade with a return greater than 4 or 5 times the risk assumed.
Why are we trading this way?
Because we are momentum traders and we look for trades that goes in the direction on the main trend.
And how to catch a trend?
This is a commonly asked question. As a breakout traders, we always look for clear impulses followed by corrective moves. After that, we will look for the new impulse in the direction of the main trend, using that corrective move to place our entry and stop loss level. Here are 5 examples of the last bullish trend:
The first thing we will do is to position on the daily chart to show you all the corrections we saw on the chart. After that, we will decrease to the corresponding timeframe to be able to see the structure comfortably and detail how we would have traded it. We will use a very simple risk scheme, fixed 2: 1 R / R ratio in order to simplify the explanation. The entry point is at the breakout of the structure, and the stop loss below it.
Bullish Patterns
Candlestick education - rest off between bull-runsHey guys,
as we all know a chart/price doesn't always go up between a rest in between, but how can we understand its correction based on the candlesticks?
📍 right after a bull run we may see a red candle with huge wicks usually we panic after seeing those candles
⚠️ don't worry guys! If a red candle closes at the bottom of half of the previous green candle it's reasonable to worry because it shows less interest of the bulls🐃
📍 however, if the red candle shows us a huge wick at both ends it means that many took the advantage and bought the dip
Do you enjoy my tutorial?
Ask me if you have any question and/ or problems
Long term investment using moving averages
Green Line IS 200 WMA of Closing Price
Blue Line IS 200 WMA OF Low, Multiplied By 0.90
Red Line IS 100 WMA of Closing Price
Condition to buy : Green line should be above red line and closing price should be above green line
BUY only when the above condition is fulfilled.
Target For Time Frame of 1 Year = 2 X Price at buy trigger
Target For Time Frame of 3 Year = 3 X Price at buy trigger
Target For Time Frame of 5 Year = 5 X Price at buy trigger
Target For Time Frame of 10 Year = 10 X Price at buy trigger
However, Targets for 5 & 10 years can also depend on other factors.
Stop Loss Is Trailing To Blue Line
Intro to SwayzePunkz: Should I trust Crypto Markets?! 👾I've made posts about this topic previously on my personal account, but it's time to show you what SwayzePunkz is all about.
Disclaimer, just a dude that has some experience in the trading community, since 2018. This seems to be something I'm naturally good at, so I would like to share some of my thoughts... Not trading advice, just a dude with something relevant to say...
In 2019, I made some Facebook posts in a Trading group called Advanced Traders that showed what I had learned in 365 days of trading. This brought me a lot of attention in that community as my view of the charts was vastly easier to grasp to most... and at that, a helluva lot more comprehensive, using nothing but human psychology to wade my way through this madness. I've always been fascinated with psychology, and have devoted 1000+ hours to the literature, for this, I think you may want to hear what I have to say... from this point forward. So to start, follow me on all social media (@swayzepunkz) but most importantly, here. Where I will be doing daily posts on charting, watchlists, and everything Blockchain-related.
Let's dig in, shall we:
First off, Crypto markets are an amazing place for beginner traders to begin. With only shy of 1200 coins and tokens to choose from, the market is saturated with growth potential across each coin! I'll touch on this in later posts, but for now, I want you to understand WHY CRYPTO?
To begin, Crypto markets are young, but not naive. They were created by some of the greatest tech minds this world has to offer. People such as Elon Musk even get a thrill out of it (arguably one of the most intelligent thinkers of our generation). With the age of Digitalization, from the beginnings of television; to the most recent advancements in Quantum computing, we have to agree, digitalization has just begun. An offspring of this digital world is something we all call Blockchain, a digital machine that effectively creates a trustless accounting system for any globalized currency. This makes an interesting concept, with no banks, tellers, or even pens, blockchains can operate. Without banks, tellers, and old accounting techniques we can assume automatically, without a doubt a cheaper, more efficient, and more secure system (this part will shock you).
In the last decades, programmers have been blessed with some of the greatest technologies of our lifetime, the ability to (at home), use a computer to program applications and programs from PayPal to Minecraft. Everything you use today was programmed almost the same way, CODE. Code is the logical rhythm of words, letters, numbers, and special characters used in a certain pattern to navigate a computer through a certain list of commands called "Protocols". Same with your morning routine, you must wake up before you brush your teeth, and place toothpaste on the brush before that. Otherwise, you'll notice ERRORS. (a dry toothbrush or waking up with a brush in your mouth would be an ERROR). Now alternatively, a system that runs harmoniously is "perfect" so that it avoids errors by following a very comprehensive list of rules (protocols). This is only part of the Cryptocurrency game, another huge aspect is the word Crypto derived from the word Encryption. Since World War II we have been encrypting messages to fool those who would use this information maliciously. Because who wants the enemy to know your plan? Same with Crypto, although, your "enemy" is anyone who is not, you, or the person you are transacting with.
"What's this have to do with this BitCoin"
Well, it's not just BitCoin, this is the entire system, predicated on P2P transactions with perfectly harmonious protocols that ENSURE your safety, privacy, and protection.
We'll cover a heck of a lot more content like this in future posts. We're super glad to have shared this post about Crypto Security, follow us where ever you enjoy consuming content. We'll likely be there @SwayzePunkz.... (YouTube will be in about a month)
For now, here's my watchlist for the Week top 5:
1. $CIX is your best bet for watching overall market trends, think of this as your NASDAQ or TSX indices.
2. Carrying some massive momentum from last week, you know I'm watching $DOGEUSDT. This one has so much damn volume, it's insane. The people are shouting for $1.00 and I believe they'll give it all they've got to get there.
3. $BTCUSDT, I look at this similarly to a market index, something like the S&P 500, Russel, Dow Jones Industrial, and the like. This coin is going to make a ravishing push toward a new high, but we'll be watching this closely, as it's borderline on that support line, and it kinda freaks me out, but still bullish AF... It's kind of like a Bull Walk, not yet a Bull Run.
4. This one is kinda a tie... $ETHUSDT and $ETCUSDT were watching these on a comparative level, trying to understand any deviations because these two are like brother and sister, but eventually one is going to be the favorite of the family.
5. Lastly, I wanted to say $XRPUSDT but I would lead you into the unknown, that's why you're here - to get good relevant information. Although I like the spread on XRP rn, I don't like the chart, it's sloppy. We'll revisit this next week. So to give you one, that I'm going to hail mary on (once my Binance account is set up) $DOTUSDT... I'll leave this one for you to check out, but we'll be talking about this a lot, soon. So I'll leave this as a take-home research project...
Like always, trade carefully, make your own decisions and stick to them, never second guess yourself, and be okay with taking a loss if it means huge gains somewhere else.
Follow us @swayzepunkz anywhere you'd like. We're trying to be everywhere. Check out our Link, to find more content about this entire cultural/digital shift, and also a few promotional offers from our friends at MOGO, Binance, and of course, the best place to get your charts (exactly how you like them TradingView!
linktr.ee
Chart Patterns Cheat SheetHello, traders!
Here is a cheat sheet which help you to identify the most frequent and reliable chart paterns. I should tell you that the patterns from the group "indefinite" are classified as bullish or bearish in classical literature, but in practice we should be careful using it in trading decisions.
BULLISH PATTERNS
Inverted Head & Shoulders , Double and Triple bottom are the most simple, frequent and reliable bullish pattern. Let's talk about bullish flag . It usually occur on the uptrend. The volume is high at the beginning of the flag and decrease to the end until the massive breakout to the upside with high volume.
The cup & handle is rare pattern and usually play out at the bigger timeframes.
INDEFINITE PATTERNS
The different types of triangles and wedges are very popular patterns and can be seen at the different timeframes. In classical books about TA rising wedge and descending triangle are bearish patterns, falling wedge and ascending triangle are bullish. But in practice it is very important to observe the side of it's breakout, as a result they can be bullish or bearish like the symmetric triangle . We should wait for the proper breakout confirmation to make a correct trading decision.
BEARISH PATTERNS
This patterns are the opposite to the bullish pattern, but work at the same way.
If you want to learn more about some pattern please give us to know it in comments.
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
Ultimate Divergences Types Cheat SheetHello, traders!
This is a cheat sheet for divergences defining between the price and oscillator. As the oscillator the RSI, Stochastic, MFI, CCI, MACD and other indicators can be used.
Regular Bullish Divergence
The price shows lower lows, oscillator - higher lows. This is the sign of downtrend weakness and potential reverse to the uptrend.
Regular Bearish Divergence
The price shows higher highs, oscillator - lower highs. This is the sign of the potential reverse from the uptrend to the downtrend.
Hidden Bullish Divergence
The price shows highers lows, oscillator - lower highs. This is the uptrend strength sign, it is going to continue.
Hidden Bearish Divergence
The price shows lower highs, oscillator higher highs. This is the downtrend strength sign, it is going to continue.
Try this powerful tool in your analysis and share your results in comments!
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
Utimate Wickoff Cycle Guide PART 1. ACCUMULATION CYCLE
Wickoff Theory
The Wyckoff theory describes many aspects and rules of trading. The main problem of the theory is the demand/supply balance. It is widely known that this balance is the key reason of some price action on the market. Today we are going to consider the Wickoff Cycle pattern. Let's start with the accumulation one.
WIIckoff Events
Key elements of the theory is the price action, spread and volume. The possible acuumulation cycle Wickoff events are following.
1. Preliminary Support (PS) - price in the downtrend, volume and price spread increase
2. Selling Climax (SC) - price spread is large, all selling volume is absorbed by major investors. Here we can see the long wick bottom
3. Automatic Rally (AR) - when the bearish pressure decreased the bulls became dominant.
4. Secondary Test (ST) - price returns almost to the SC. Used for the bottom confirmation. Volume and spread are much lower than in SC. Can be multiple.
5. Spring - it is optinal event. Occures when the selling pressure is strong but major investors have a greter demand to absorb all this supply
6. Tests - can be multiple. Attempts to re-enter the trading range low. Bullish tests is the less volume with higher lows of the price action
7. Sign of Strength (SOS) - price action along the resistanse usually looks like a triangle or wedge pattern
8. Back-up/Last Point of Support - last low before the uptrend starts
Wyckoff Cycle
Let's consider step-by-step the phases of the Wyckoff cycle.
1. Phase A - the huge downtrend is about to end. We can identify the PS, SC and AR points which form the resistance and support of the trading range.
2. Phase B - price action is in the trading range. The mutiple secondary tests (ST) of the support are possible. During this phase it should be alomost clear that bullish pressure is stronger than bearish.
3. Phase C is optional. There is could be the spring - fake support level breakout, but the price quickly returnes to the trading range forming higher lows.
4. Phase D - the price broke through the resistance and starts consolidate along it.
5. Phase E - massive price pump.
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
EDUCATION: Rising Wedge PatternHello, dear subscribers!
Today we will continue to consider the chart pattern. The risisng wedge is the topic of this article.
We can see the rising narrowing wedge formation when the scatter of highs and lows is decreasing during the time and price make higher highs and higher lows. There are clear support and resistance lines which have different angles of slope as you can see on the chart
The rising narrowing wedge is usually described as the bearish pattern but in practice it is not always true. In fact the direction of the breakout is the most important evidence for the price movement prediction. In this example we can see the break through the resistance line and the massive price pump.
The breakout can be fake, in that case the price returns back to the wedge. If it is true breakout the price can make an attempt to return back but there is a rejection as you can notice in our example.
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for the educational purposes and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Elliott Wave Analysis: OMGUSD In A Correction Before HigherHello traders!
Today we will talk about OmiseGO (OMGUSD) and its price action + wave structure from Elliott Wave perspective.
Some cryptocurrencies were in a massive and impulsive rise since March and one of them is also OMGUSD, in which we clearly see a five-wave bullish cycle into wave A/1 on the weekly chart. We know that after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows, so an a-b-c correction in wave B/2 could be already in progress, which can send the price ideally back to 50%-61,8% Fibo. retracement before the uptrend for wave C/3 resumes.
If we take a look on a daily chart, we can see five-wave fall from the highs labeled as the first leg "a", so current recovery can be only temporarily, as part of a lower degree three-wave (a)-(b)-(c) corrective rise in wave "b" with ideal resistance around 5.0 - 7.0 area, from where we should be aware of another sell-off for wave "c" to complete a higher degree wave B/2. And ideal strong support, where bulls may show up again, would be around the previous wave "iv" swing low and 1.5 support area.
Be humble and trade smart!
If you like what we do, then please like and share the idea!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
BITCOIN Minimum Target: $36000 - Full ExplanationGood morning traders! We hope you are having a beautiful day.
🔸Today we want to show you our vision of bitcoin in the short-medium term and explain why we see it extremely bullish.
- Speaking a bit of the context and history, we can see that bitcoin hits all-time highs in late 2017, reaching almost $20,000. After this, there came an abrupt decline that found its lows around $ 3000. From there, the upward movement has been resumed.
- During this year, this crypto has made almost a 200% bullish movement.
- Analyzing the behavior of the chart, we see that it has potential to be a Cup and Handle movement pattern.
🔸Now we go with a little of theory:
- The cup and handle pattern implies a movement in the price that makes a high, a decline correcting movement, a consolidation at lows, and then the subsequent upward recovery. You can clearly see the transition from lower lows and highs to higher lows and highs. After this, it needs a retest of the previous highs (double top pattern), and for a bullish corrective move.
🔸Now, does this imply that bitcoin is going to breakout and make an explosive bullish move imminently?
- We do not know, but according to the characteristics of this pattern, no.
- What we should expect is a retest of the Resistance zone (all-time highs), and then a corrective move (flag, triangle, pennant, etc.).
Once formed, the idea is to trade the breakout.
- The MINIMUM target of the movement is calculated by measuring the distance between the minimum of the range and the maximum.
- This calculation gives us a distance of $16500-$16600, which, projecting it upwards, gives us an approximate target of $36000.
Moving Averages Crossover Divergence Masterclass Part 2Moving Averages Crossover Divergence Masterclass Part 2
In the previous masterclass, we saw two different ways of using MACD as an indicator. In Part 2, we'll look out for two other ways to use MACD along with other indicators.
The two previous ways were:
1. Centreline Crossover
2. Signal-line Crossover
Moving forward the two more ways are:
3. MACD + Awesome Oscillator:
Awesome Oscillator -
Bill William's Awesome Oscillator
It is a momentum oscillator
Calculated by subtracting 34-period SMA from 5-period SMA plotted through bar-midpoint (H+L/2)
Clearly shows what is happening to the market driving force
Bullish Scenario- Awesome Oscillator is greater than 0; If AO is moving up bullish trend is strengthening while if AO is moving down bullish trend is weakening
Bearish Scenario- Awesome Oscillator is less than 0; If AO is moving down bearish trend is strengthening while if AO is moving up bearish trend is weakening
Awesome Oscillator defined the predominant trend while MACD Signal line crossover(as discussed in Masterclass Part 1) is used to generate the trade signal.
Thus BUY when AO >0 and MACD crosses up the signal line, while SELL when AO <0 and MACD crosses below the signal line
To prevent fake signals, a stop loss can be set-up at the low for the entry candle.
4. MACD + Stochastic:
Stochastic Indicator -
Momentum Indicator
Compares a particular closing price to a range of its prices over a certain period of time
Just like MACD, it has faster and slower moving metrics
Slow Stochastic Indicator (%K) = (C - L14)/(H14 - L14)*100
Fast Stochastic Indicator (%D) = 3 - period moving average of %K
Bullish Scenario- Stochastic Indicator < 20 i.e. oversold condition; market trading upward, prices will close near the high
Bearish Scenario- Stochastic Indicator > 80 i.e. overbought condition; market trading downward, prices will close near the low
MACD Centerline Crossover(as discussed in Masterclass Part 1) defines the predominant trend while the Stochastic Indicator (%K) is used to generate the trade signal.
Thus BUY when MACD > 0 and Stochastic Oscillator < 20, while SELL when MACD <0 and Stochastic Oscillator >80
Trade signals can also be generated using crossovers of %K and %D for the Stochastic Oscillator.
A lot more interesting things can be done using MACD, but we'll move to the next indicator in our next Masterclass.
STAY TUNED
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Your questions and comments are most welcome.
If you find the post useful, please like, share, and follow to make sure that you get more information once I publish it.
- Mudrex
Bearish Reversal Candlesticks PatternsHanging man
The hanging man is the bearish equivalent of a hammer (bullish pattern). It typically forms at the end of an uptrend with a tiny body and a long lower wick. The lower wick designates that there was a large sell-off, but bulls headed to take back control and drive the price up. Holding that in mind, after a lengthened uptrend, the sell-off may act as a warning that the bulls might soon be losing control of the market.
Shooting star
The shooting star is a comparable pattern as the inverted hammer (bullish pattern) but is formed at the end of an uptrend. The shooting star is composed of a candlestick with a long upper wick, little or no lower wick, and a small body, ideally near the low. It indicates that the market reached a high, but then sellers took control and drove the price back down.
Three black crows
The bearish equivalent of three white soldiers (bullish pattern). The three black crows are made of three sequential red candlesticks that open within the previous candle’s body, and close at a level below the previous candle’s low. Ideally, these candlesticks shouldn’t have long higher wicks, betokening continuous selling pressure pushing the price down. The dimension of the candles and the length of the wicks can be used to estimate the chances of continuation.
Bearish harami
The bearish harami is a long green candle followed by a small red candle with a body that’s completely contained within the body of the previous candle. The bearish harami can unfold over two or more days, marks at the end of a downtrend, and may symbolize that buying pressure is decreasing.
Dark cloud cover
The dark cloud cover pattern consists of a red candle that opens above the close of the previous green candle but then closes below the midpoint of that candle. It can often be co-occurred by high volume, indicating that momentum might be shifting from the upside to the downside. Traders might wait for a third red candle for confirmation of the pattern.
Best regards EXCAVO
Relative Strength Index Masterclass Part 2Relative Strenght Index Part 2
In the previous masterclass, we saw the two different ways of using the Relative Strength Index as an indicator. In Part 2, we'll look out for two other ways to use RSI along with other indicators.
The two previous ways were:
1. Oversold-Overbought Region
2. 50-Level RSI Midline
Moving forward the two more ways are:
3. 2-Period RSI + Simple Moving Average (SMA)
2-Period RSI:
2-period RSI is the shortest and most volatile RSI signal which can be used
A 1-period RSI cannot be used as it will merely give just two values, either 0 or 100 as a 1-period RSI will consider values from just the last 1 candlestick
2-period RSI will generate trade signals at the local highs and lows of the predominant trend and will lead to a reversal in the market price
Therefore, 2-period RSI Strategy is also known as Mean-Reversion Trading Strategy
The 2-Period RSI will generate a signal using a Threshold of 95-5, with price above 95 in the overbought region while below 5 in the oversold region
200-Simple Moving Average:
200-SMA is a Simple Moving Average of the past 200-candlestick
When price moves above the 200-SMA, the market is moving above average and indicate a bullish trend
When price moves below the 200-SMA, the market is moving below average and indicate a bearish trend
Thereby, 200-SMA giving the predominant trend and 2-Period RSI generating trade signals.
Thus Buy when the price is above 200-SMA and RSI<5 while, sell when the price is below 200-SMA and RSI>95.
4. RSI + MACD
RSI:
The RSI will generate a signal once a predominant trend is generated using MACD
The threshold for RSI will be 70-30, with price above 70 in the overbought region while below in the oversold region
The lookback period for RSI is taken as default (14)
MACD:
MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator
MACD is calculated by subtracting 26-period EMA from 12-period EMA, resulting in MACD line
A nine-day EMA of MACD results in Signal line
When the signal line is above the MACD line indicates a bullish signal as small period EMA is greater than the long period
When the signal line is below the MACD line indicates a bearish signal as small period EMA is lesser than the long period
Thereby, MACD giving the predominant trend and RSI generating trade signals.
Thus Buy when the Signal line is above MACD and RSI<30 while, sell when the signal line is below MACD and RSI>70.
A lot more interesting things can be done using RSI, but we'll move to the next indicator in our next Masterclass. STAY TUNED
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If you find the post useful, please like, share, and follow to make sure that you get more information once I publish it.
- Mudrex
Relative Strength Index Masterclass Part 1Relative Strenght Index(RSI)
RSI is a momentum oscillator, whereas the momentum is the rate of the rise or fall in price.
RSI is an oscillator ranging between two extremes, in the case of RSI, it ranges from 0 to 100.
The relative strength index is computed with: RSI = 100RS/(1+RS); where RS is relative strength.
RS= (Previous Average gain*13+Current gain)/(Previous Average loss*13+Current loss)
Relative Strength is a ratio of a stock price performance to a market average (index) performance.
RSI will rise as the number and size of positive close increases and will fall as the number and size of losses increase.
There are two terminologies for RSI:
Lookback period: The time frame that is used to calculate the relative strength, by default it is 14. A look-back period greater than 14 will give a smoother RSI signal while less than 14 will give a rough volatile RSI signal
Threshold Frequency: The oversold-overbought value ranges are the threshold frequency, default is 70-30 (which depend on various factors reasons such as risk factor), for eg. 80-20(less risk) and 66-33 (more risk)
RSI touching the overbought condition is a bearish sign (prices are likely to go down) while RSI attaining oversold condition is a bullish sign (prices are likely to increase)
There are many ways of using RSI as an indicator
Oversold-Overbought Region :
Oversold Region - The situation at which a lot of selling has happened and everyone who was willing to sell has sold, RSI value less than 30
Overbought Region - The situation at which a lot of buying has happened and everyone who was willing to buy has bought, RSI value greater than 70
In this, we have default values for the lookback period(14) and threshold frequency(70-30) which you can change according to your requirement and risk management.
A look-back period of more than 14 would be more interested in long term trend while less than 14 would be inclined towards short term trades. The look-back period can also be increased to smoothen out the RSI line.
A threshold of 80-20 (more-safer) or 66-33 (more-riskier) can be taken into consideration.
A Buy signal will be generated when RSI is less than 30 i.e. the oversold region while a Sell signal will be generated when RSI is greater than 70 i.e. overbought region.
50-Level RSI Midline
The overbought-oversold condition helps detect sudden changes in the momentum of price without providing much information about the overall trend of the market, therefore using the overbought-oversold strategy without getting information on the overall trend could be a bit risky.
Thus we use RSI with different timeframes and the threshold for trend information as well as signal generation.
In this we will have two different RSI:
A RSI with the look-back period of 20-days and 50-50 frequency, also called midline RSI. In an uptrend, this RSI is above 50 and below 50 for a downtrend.
A RSI with the look-back period of 5-days and 66-33 frequency, the look-back period is sufficiently low so that in a predominant trend, local maxima or minima can be used for generating buy or sell signal with the small look-back period RSI ensuring the signal is reactive to current price fluctuations.
Thereby, an uptrend is signaled if 20-RSI is greater than 50, with the buy signal being generated in the uptrend with 5-RSI in the oversold region while a downtrend is signaled if 20-RSI is less than 50, with the sell signal being generated in the downtrend with 5-RSI in the overbought region.
A buy signal is generated when 20-RSI is greater than 50 and 5-RSI is less than 33 while a sell signal is generated when 20-RSI is less than 50 and 5-RSI is greater than 66.
A lot more interesting things can be done using RSI, about which we'll be talking in the next Masterclass on RSI, STAY TUNED!
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Your questions and comments are most welcome.
If you find the post useful, please like, share, and follow to make sure that you get more information once I publish it.
- Mudrex
How to use Bullish/Bearish Flag Patterns...WHAT IS A BULL FLAG?
A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. The bull flag chart pattern looks like a downward sloping channel/rectangle denoted by two parallel trendlines against the preceding trend.
During this period of consolidation, volume should dry up through its formation and resolve to push higher on the breakout. The actual price formation of the bull flag resembles that of a flag on a pole hence its namesake.
HOW TO IDENTIFY A BULLISH FLAG ON FOREX CHARTS
It can be complex identifying a bull flag on a chart because the pattern entails several different components. Traders will need to correctly identify and understand these components to trade this pattern successfully. Key things to look out for when trading the bull flag pattern are:
Preceding uptrend (flag pole)
Identify downward sloping consolidation (bull flag)
If the retracement becomes deeper than 50%, it may not be a flag pattern. Ideally, the retracement ends at less than 38% of the original trend
Enter at bottom of the flag or on the breakout above the high of the upper channel boundary
Look for price to break higher with a length potentially equal to the size of the flag pole
WHAT IS A BEAR FLAG?
A bear flag is a technical pattern that provides an extension/continuation to an existing downward trend. The bear flag formation is underlined from an initial strong directional move down, followed by a consolidation channel in an upwards direction (see image below). The strong move down is known as the ‘flagpole’ whilst the consolidation is referred to as the ‘flag’ itself.
HOW TO IDENTIFY A BEARISH FLAG ON FOREX CHARTS
Identifying a bear flag can be easy once traders understand the components, and this is applicable to all financial markets, not just forex. The pattern itself is divided into three parts:
1. Traders will need to find the flag pole which will be identified as an initial decline. This decline can be steep or slowly sloping and will establish the basis for the trend.
2. The bear flag is identified as a period of consolidation after the completion of prices initial decline. During this period, prices may slowly channel upward and retrace a portion of the initial move. At this point traders will wait for price to break to lower lows in the direction of the trend.
3. After price begins to move lower again, traders can then find the final component needed for trading a bearish flag pattern. The profit target is a potential value to take profit after a currency pair’s next decline in price. This pricing level can be identified by first measuring the distance in pips of our initial decline. This value can then be subtracted from the peak resistance line formed from our consolidating flag.
Double Top Chart PatternThe Double Top or Bottom Chart Pattern is a reversal pattern as its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks or troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough or peak in-between. This reversal could signal an end of an uptrend or downtrend. ( Double top with an end to an uptrend in this case).
Double Top Chart Pattern
A Double Top chart pattern is comprised of three main components:
After a long bullish trend , the price reaches the highest point of the current uptrend
After the highest point, there is a decline in price getting support from the support line
After this trough the price again increases and reaches another peak falling to the same support line
The long bullish trend is the prior trend which is reversed once the pattern is completed, with reaching the highest point of the current trend marking the 1st peak followed by a trough which gets support from the support line i.e. the neckline. Later the price further increases to reach the 2nd peak which gets resistance from the resistance line of 1st peak (usually). Once the price falls and breaks the neckline the formation is complete. The target price for the same is taken as the difference between the neckline and the 2nd peak, with the neckline acting as resistance after the pattern completion.
Volume is a confirmatory indication that increases substantially as the breakout is observed and confirms the double top pattern completion!
There are few limitations as well to the Double Top Pattern:
Can be extremely harmful if identified incorrectly
Sometimes the peaks or the trough could be just normal resistance than long-lasting change
Might get converted to Triple top, so pay attention to the volume carefully
Therefore, one must be extremely careful and patient before jumping to conclusions. Go Trading!!!
Further, there are four different types of Double Top pattern based on their respective average rises and failure rate percentage, namely: Adam-Adam; Adam-Eve; Eve-Eve, and Eve-Adam. Where the average is the measure of the price movement from the breakout point to the prime point i.e. 1st peak or the Ultimate high.
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Three Drives Harmonic Chart PatternThe three drivers chart pattern is a well known harmonic chart pattern that acts as a trend reversal. The pattern consists of either three higher highs or lower lows which is an indication of a potential trend reversal.
There are two different types of three drives pattern:
Bullish
Bearish
Bullish Three Drives Pattern
There are three different waves in the pattern as the name suggests, three drives.
With the subsequent drives, there are lower lows that are being formulated in the pattern with three different bottoms.
Once the third wave is completed and the low point has been observed, a buy signal can be created with formulating the Fibonacci levels and generating the buy signal with a Fibonacci extension of 1.27 or 1.628.
For the stop-loss and take profit levels, you can formulate a new Fibonacci level with the start and end of the pattern and keep 161.8% as the stop-loss level and 61.8% as the take profit level.
The important point that confirms the drives is a similar time period between the uptrend after the 1st wave and 2nd wave also a similar time period between the 2nd wane and 3rd wave for the downtrend.
The bearish three drives pattern is completely opposite of the bullish three dives pattern and can be spotted in a similar manner.
The three drives pattern belongs to the family of harmonic patterns and thus makes use of not just chart patterns but also technical retracement levels to validate the pattern. A three-drive pattern that does not meet the retracement criteria can be discarded.
The pattern is therefore qualitative as well as quantitative in nature.
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eLEARN ON 4 TYPES OF INDICATORSI was supposed to give some few tips on how to check some market movements through some of indicators which I Also use.
Bullish or Bearish indicators are classified depending on what they indicate; They either indicate;Volatility , Momentum, Volume and Trend.
I will give an example on each type.
Volatility Indictors show price action change in a given time,Tells nothing about direction but how the fast the price will change for you to make profit. Example is Bollinger bands.
Momentum indicators show how strong the trend is, with them you can detect when a pullback is going to occur or a reversal. Example is RSI indicator.
Volume indicators show how volume is changing with time like the OBV.
Trend indicators tell you which direction the market will be moving to like MACD. Mostly are oscillators.
I will cover an example on each in 4 episodes.
In Trading all indicators have their limitations and one can not depend only on 1 indicator , I will also show you on you can use several indicators combined.
EPISODE 1
Bollinger bands - Volatility Indicator.
They consist of a simple moving average, and 2 lines plotted at 2 standard deviations on either side of the central moving average line. The outer lines make up the band.
Simply, when the band is narrow the market is quiet. When the band is wide the market is loud.
Trading when market is trending, Bands try to squeeze to each other and that indicates that Breakout is about to happen either and Uptrend or down trend.
If the candles breakout below the bottom band, the move will generally continue in a downtrend.
If the candles breakout above the top band, the move will generally continue in an uptrend.
An example of Bollinger indicating a breakout.
Point to NOte:
If the candles breakout above the top band, the move will generally continue in an uptrend
If the candles breakout below the bottom band, the move will generally continue in a downtrend.
Bullish
Bearish
When Trading in a ranges when coin is maybe accumulating or distributing, Bollinger bands act as Resistance and support at that particular time. When you want to enter the market, You can always enter at the bottom of the lower band and sell at the top band to avoid a breakout which may happen which could be a down move or uptrend. If you enter for a long at the bottom of the range or short at the top of the range, The price naturally returns to the average as time passes.
That’s what Bollinger bands are all about; keep following, next episode is well lined up.
The Cup and Handle Chart PatternCup and Handle Chart Pattern
The cup and handle chart pattern is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. It can help to predict future price movements.
A cup and handle chart pattern is comprised of three main components:
-A prior trend, as to qualify as a continuation pattern it has to have a prior trend
-The cup, "U" shaped resembling a bowl or rounding bottom with almost equal heights on the either side
-The handle, as the cup formation is completed, a trading range develops on the right-hand side forming the handle, usually 1/3rd of the size of the prior advance
In this chart pattern, there is a prior trend followed by a cup forming with almost of the equal heights on either side with a low in observed nearly in the middle. After the low, the rice consolidates to reach near the high of the start of the cup, followed by a pullback forming a handle, similar in shape to a flag or pennant. Once the handle reaches back to the same level of the cup highs, a breakout is expected, confirming with spikes in the volume observed.
Traders can use the cup and handle to buy when the breakout is observed i.e. at the candle when price breaks the highs formed by the cup. For confirmation, traders can use the sudden increase in volume as the cup and handle completes and the breakout is observed. Traders can put stop loss at the low of the handle in order to minimize the losses if the pattern fails,
There are few limitations as well to the Cup and Handle Pattern:
-Can be difficult to be observed for novice traders
-Often might require assistance from other technical indicators
-The cup and handle might take extensive periods to play out and complete the formation
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Recent AUD/NZD Long Trade Using ResistanceI caught a nice trade here yesterday on AUD/NZD.
Price had recently broken through resistance, and we saw a strong bullish break out move.
As the bullish momentum slowed down, we saw bears come back into power and drove the price back down to resistance. At this pint, we need to look for 2 actions:
- Either price will break through the resistance level and the bearish move will continue, most likely down to previous support levels in which you could enter a short trade when the break through is confirmed.
OR
- We will see a rejection at the trend line where the price is struggling to break through the resistance, and bulls come back into the equation to drive the price upward. This is when you can enter a long trade.
After identifying the rejection at the trend line, also in line with the MACD and RVI, I entered a long trade and banked a nice profit before bears came back into power and drove the price down.
Support and resistance levels can be used to identify some lovely trade setups, as we have seen with AUD/NZD.