BoE Preview with fundamental backdrop and key levelsWhile the consensus is very much that the MPC will keep rates unchanged at Thursday's meeting, there is a risk that some of the more hawkish members will point to the rise in earning's growth, which although still in negative territory in real terms, is now moving in the right direction. If inflation starts to flatten out as the exchange rate effects pass through, then a continued rise in wages will allow the BoE to normalise rates at a gradual pace, with all member cogniscent of the tightening bias elsewhere, most notably in the US.
That said, there a plenty of 'ifs', not least of all Brexit, and as the negotiations have yet produce any material progress, the uncertainty will be a secondary factor and this will start showing up in the data. There are already concerns over the performance of the high street and the consumer, but with the EU digging in its heals on single market access, UK services face an unsettled future. The BoE will have to assume that there is a bumpy ride ahead, so at this stage, any hawkish signals are unnecesssary.
The meeting in May is earmarked as the earliest the BoE will look to move again, and at present, the markets are pricing in a 50/50 chance of another 25bp hike. We fail to see how the odds can move materially to the upside, but equally so on the downside, upward projections in growth would underpin this and keep GBP on an even keel for now.
