Level up your understandingThe Liquidity game is much, much easier than you think.
Most people only want posts that align with their own beliefs, the reality is Bitcoin is becoming institutional and the more players coming does not simply equate to prices rising.
Logic will tell you, these "professional money makers" will want better prices, the accumulation phase on this scale will have retail torn apart. Every $100 rally will feel like the time is now and every $50 drop will feel like the end is near.
I've shared countless posts and live streams here, talking about the transition.
Here's a whole new set of things to think about to educate yourself on the current situation.
First of all here's one of the latest streams going into detail of some of the logic.
www.tradingview.com
In educational terms here we go.
When price moves up and volume goes down, this is called divergence.
Imagine you're at a party with your friends, and you see two people dancing together. One person is dancing really fast, moving a lot, and having a great time. The other person is dancing slowly and not moving much. This difference in their dance styles is like volume divergence in trading.
In trading, volume refers to the number of shares or contracts that are traded in a specific time period. It's like how many people are buying and selling stocks or other financial assets.
Volume divergence happens when the price of a stock or asset is going in one direction, like going up, but the volume is not matching it. For example, the price might be rising, but not many people are buying or selling it. It's like the dancing person who is moving fast (price going up) but not many people are joining the dance (low volume).
Ok so step one, there is a clear divergence of volume...
Next
I can guarantee some people will question the relationship to the price.
Well. I used a box to measure 50% of the move here, just to highlight the obvious. Look left and see the level to volume actually peaked higher on the right and then dropped off, so argument no longer valid. Secondly, the orange line represents the green spike in volume that we lack in the current move.
Third point;
Look at the Weiss wave moves, again I have covered this in several educational posts here as well as many of my streams, if you don't know what this is. Go back and look through the posts. I often use Weiss to justify a 3 wave in an Elliott wave move. It can quickly highlight the obvious level of impulsive nature. Or in this instance, the lack of.
Zoomed in and then over to the monthly timeframe.
So what you need to understand is that with lack of impulsiveness and clear divergence, what else can you see that backs up the logic?
How about using Oscillators?
The monthly stochastic clearly showing overbought.
And an off the shelf OBV showing sideways balance
If you can learn to read these simple points, your already onto a winner. Many newer traders have strategies that often include RSI, MACD or Moving Averages and 9 times out of 10 it's on too small a timeframe. "If in doubt, zoom out"
Combining logical arguments to figure out where you are on the chart can help you develop a much better picture, if you still want to trade smaller times, then you have a bias based on the bigger picture.
OK - so next, let's take a look at a slightly more advanced view.
This is CVD (cumulative delta);
What does the numbers mean?
Imagine you have a piggy bank, and every day, you either put money into it or take some money out. The total amount of money you've put in or taken out is like the cumulative delta.
In trading, cumulative delta is a way to keep track of the buying and selling activities in the market for a particular financial asset, like a stock. Instead of money, we use something called "contracts" or "shares" to represent the buying and selling.
When traders buy a stock, it's like they are putting money into the piggy bank. And when they sell the stock, it's like taking money out of the piggy bank. The cumulative delta keeps track of the difference between the number of shares bought and the number of shares sold throughout the day or a specific period.
This image above tracks the numbers for each swing.
When coupled with other tools such as Footprint levels, you can see where the higher levels of liquidity is sitting.
Now combine the stages above. Let's recap.
Bigger players coming in will want better prices.
We have divergence on volume.
Weiss waves lack impulsiveness.
Oscillators oversold or show sideways balance.
CVD levels still mostly negative.
Footprint key levels have wider gaps to the next layers of liquidity.
===============================================================
Now, what else would be worth looking at? Well. one tool I have shared many times in the posts and streams is called COT.
COT stands for "Commitment of Traders." It's like keeping track of who is doing what in a big game, but instead of players, we are talking about traders in the financial markets.
Imagine you are playing a game with your friends, and you want to know who is on which team. You might have a list that shows how many players are on each team and what roles they play, like who's a striker, who's a defender, and so on.
In trading, COT is a report that shows us how many traders are on each team, so to speak. It tells us how many traders are buying and how many are selling certain financial assets, like commodities (like gold, oil) or futures contracts (which are like agreements to buy or sell something at a specific price in the future) AND of COURSE BITCOIN.
The COT report is released by official organizations, and it's based on data collected from traders who are required to report their positions in these markets.
Why does this matter? revert back to bigger players in the market coming for Bitcoin...
just like in a game, knowing which team has more players or which roles are in demand can give you a clue about the game's overall strategy.
When we look at the COT report, we can see if there are more traders buying or if more are selling it. This information helps understand the market sentiment.
If a lot of traders are buying, it might mean they have a positive outlook, and the price of the asset could go up. On the other hand, if many traders are selling, it might mean they are not so optimistic, and the price could go down.
In COT terms, there are two major players I look for in the reports.
Asset Managers
COT Asset Managers are like assistants for the big investors, like hedge funds or investment firms. These big investors have a lot of money to invest in different things, like stocks, commodities, or other financial assets including Bitcoin.
It is the Asset Managers' job to take care of these investments and make sure they are managed well. It's like they are the guardians of the funds.
So Asset Managers view of Bitcoin currently seems to be positive.
Now for the second player I look at in the COT report.
Leveraged Funds
Imagine you a bank that allows you to borrow money. You then use that money to invest...
Leveraged Funds are a bit like that. They are investment funds that use borrowed money, or leverage, to try to make bigger profits. These funds can invest in different things but in this case their investing in Bitcoin.
Here's how it works:
Regular Investment: Let's say you have $10, and you decide to put it in a normal bank. Over time, your money might grow a little with interest, and you'll have more than $10.
Leveraged Investment: Now, let's imagine you have another bank called a leveraged fund. Your bank give you an extra $10 as a loan, so you have a total of $20 to put into this leveraged bank account. This means you can invest twice as much as you originally had!
However, there's also a risk with leveraged funds. If the investments don't do well, you might lose more money than you initially had. For example, if your $20 goes down to $15, you still need to repay the $10 you borrowed, so you'll end up with only $5 of your own money left.
The summary here is that larger investors use leveraged funds, so unlike Asset Managers who have a very long outlook. The Leveraged Funds element of the COT report is smaller timeframes but still a lot of volume.
So, what is their current view?
Whilst we have a positive long term outlook. COT would suggest we are not completely ready to shoot off to the moon just yet.
I have really tried to over simplify the post here for the sake of education. There's a lot more to each individual section, but knowing these basics will set you off on the right path.
Bitcoin becoming institutional is a great opportunity if you know where to look. These moves are far from random as you can see in this post below.
Anyways! take it easy and good luck out there!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
J-xrp
💥 XRP SHOULD I BUY OR SELL? IMPORTANT PSYCHOLOGICAL TRADING 💥 💥 Very important idea and question of the week here with our XRP should I buy or sell? Good question and let's see what we can figure, thanks for joining ladies and gentlemen.
💥 XRP's been trending between 0.77 and 0.80 roughly displaying this horizontal channel which has basically displayed this sideways trend with us getting one breakout above for a relatively short period before reversing with the market now testing the waters and looking for a pivot in either way.
💥 Amongst this period of waves and sideways trading I've been getting asked by a few people whether or not they should or should not sell XRP. To start off on that, the question is what is your objective. Before you open a trade you should tell yourself at what price you are going to sell at. In this case the majority of that has been $1.
💥 We nearly hit $1 with XRP's first run up before failing because the traders that had already bought at $1 before decided to sell at $1 as they'd seen the price get lost before and wanted to sell at that price which is psychological for the most part.
💥 If we factor that in then we know now that should we approach that $1 mark again, we'll likely see more sales as the individuals that didn't sell at $1 will see the previous bounce up, reversal and think, if it did this at $1, why shouldn't I just sell at $1 in case it falls down again?
And thus they sell.
💥 What's important is that next time we approach $1, even with the selling we won't have nearly as much as we did the first time with much of the first wave of buyers having hopped out already thus it'll give us some leverage and potentially allow us to breakout/get a leg up above $1 which would be incredible. There's no guarantee that'll happen of course but that's something you guys can take note of, whether or not it does will be if the market has factored in the price of the news and what that news is, it's significance.
💥 Next important thing is why you exactly own XRP. Did you simply buy in to reap a specific percentage? If so then you're more than likely happy with 100% and doubling your money and should sell if that's what your content with/goal was.
💥 What if you bought in because of the utility use case and you believe XRP has an even brighter future? Well in that case you as well as that class of traders/investors will most likely be holding for the long term a couple of years believing that XRP's price has a lot more to rise in the coming years alongside it's utility and real world use/adoption.
💥 Still even with all of that there is another option, you can always sell your XRP for the high percent gain and convert that to another crypto you have faith in. Here's one example of what I'm talking about:
💥 You originally buy $50,000 worth of XRP at 40 cents. Now it's worth $100,000 at 80 cents with a 100% profit. If you believe it has more potential to the downside then the upside you could sell it all for $100,000, then convert that into Bitcoin to give you approximately 3.33 Bitcoin at current prices. Bitcoin has yet to make any major moves being stuck at that $29,000-$30,000 range still so it would make sense to do that if you believe Bitcoin will go back up and further within a year or more. Thus your $100,000 could become $198,000 if Bitcoin we're to hit $60,000 again.
💥 Above is the example of taking profits from one profitable trade and putting them to work in another which may be less risky buy still reap rewards and percentages, sure you're chances of seeing a crazy quick and high percentage rise will be way lower than with XRP, but you're money would also be safer and more than likely still reap profits, albeit in the longer term.
💥 This is all relative to the market cap of course and your risk tolerance. With XRP's market cap of roughly $41 billion right now it still allows a lot more room for growth, to get 100% you would need another $41 billion. Whereas with Bitcoin being at $578 billion, you'll need another $578 billion to hit $60,000 or so. It's a big difference but that's where the risk tolerance comes in. XRP offers a lot more profits but at a lot more risk, whereas Bitcoin may offer less profits but with a lot less risk. That's where it's up to you to think about your tolerance and what you're plan exactly is.
💥Important thing to note is what percent your gains will be taxed at if you do decide to close. Remember that you'll be facing long term or short term gains depending on how long you've held/had and you're income. If you sell for a short term gain there is no 20% like with long term gains, the tax percent can go as high as 37% for short term so it'll range in between 10% and 37% basically. For long term the range is 0 - 20% based off your total taxable income. Below is a link to the site I used which details a lot more on capital gains.
www.bankrate.com
💥 It's been a long enough idea I understand but I wanted to make some points clear, especially for those debating on whether or not to sell, so I hope that helps, because even if all of this were to help only one person, I would still be happy with that, anything for you guys. Thanks for tuning in and feel free to leave a like or follow, simply helps me, thanks.
~ Rock '
📚 Bow & Arrow Pattern 🏹Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
Today, I want to share an interesting pattern that I always use to speculate (to an extent) the next move of an asset.
🏹 I call it the "Bow & Arrow" pattern.
This pattern can be either bullish or bearish, but for today, I will be focusing on the bullish reversal patterns.
On the chart, I have highlighted three previous examples for illustration purposes (in red, orange, and purple).
The pattern consists of three cycles:
1️⃣ First, there is a bearish impulse that breaks below a major low.
2️⃣ Second, a correction forms followed by another bearish impulse.
3️⃣ Third, the bulls take over, resulting in a complete shift in momentum.
📉 We can clearly see this pattern playing out nicely on the XRP weekly chart.
If we apply the same logic and pattern to the current price action, we would expect the next bullish impulse movement (3️⃣) to start soon, which should be confirmed on lower timeframes.
🗒 What do you think?
Always remember to follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
And always remember: All strategies are good if managed properly!
~Rich
Ninja Talks EP 11: BBQ TalkSince it's summer and the BBQS are out, it got me reminiscing about old times.
I used to tell people I was a trader, before I was even profitable.
Do I recommend this?
Nah not really no.
(1) It puts tremendous pressure on yourself to do what you say.
That pressure makes you rush, push and bully your risk into a brawl of epic proportions.
(2) Most people don't believe you and actual traders ALSO don't believe you.
However, if you're a super stubborn half autistic savant who dedicates their life to this and has no shame on the unlimited effort they're putting into this skill set, then we'll...shout it to the roof tops.
Muhammad Ali told people he was the greatest before everyone else even heard it - Floyd Mayweather - Conor McGregor etc the same thing.
Is it some spartan-esque teen thrown into the wild right of passage scenario?
Absolutely not.
But respect to those that choose that path.
Full transparency: I did.
That's all for today's ep!
P.S. As far as Ripples analysis, SEC will probably be positive news, thus making Bambi traders (both old and new) buy buy buy, which will be great for whales to exit their losing positions.
I know that will lose me followers, but the truth hurts and I don't need your money like other gurus.
Hope this helps Ninjas!
Keep your blades sharp.
Nick
It's a numbers gameI see this more and more, especially in the crypto space. There are some wild stories out there from turning $8k to a billion through to a Pizza for 10,000 Bitcoin.
Here are some home truths. Although most of you won't want to hear this.
You see, as a professional trader - there is 1 key factor, almost a scale balancing between too much and just enough. Everyone pushes for more returns, we are only human after all. We have had stories of Wall Street Titans and Vegas big wins, but there is some simple logic to this.
You might have entered the market after Covid hit the world and wanted an extra income, might have seen a way to make millions from the money the government sent you? The issue is this is no different that rolling a dice in Vegas but without the fun! You possibly saw some influencer selling you the dream - they fail to tell you, they trade on demo accounts and make their income from affiliate links and social media watch time!
When you think of investors like Warren Buffet, you have to understand - he didn't watch an influencer video and say to himself "I want to be like that guy" - investing is often a long term thing and not a get rich quick scheme.
Here's a few examples to hit home.
This is boring, not worth it - so instead you seek higher returns, that opens up the possibility of falling into scams, listening to the wrong crowd and having dreams. To be honest, it's probably more enjoyable spending a day at the races.
With a smaller account, you can grow it a little, add to it on the next pay day and of course compound the investments.
As you move up the scale.
This is probably where most "semi serious" market goers start. It's often a flurry into the market cash in hand. The assumption often the same; you have done well to amass a lumpy investment, your clearly good at the field you have been in to earn your pot. Why wouldn't you be a good trader? After all, these kid influencers are making millions on their demo accounts.
Jump to the next level...
Your either a captain of industry, you have had your own business or you have a kind daddy.
How you got here is not important, staying here is.
When you trade with a medium sized account you start to think a little different. Instead of looking for 900x returns, you start thinking about investments that are a little less risky. This is the scales I mentioned earlier. You are now in the space of a good return might be good enough. Too high of a risk, means you are thinking of safe guarding your cash.
Here's where the Professionals play the game differently. Trying to make 1-5% is a lot more sustainable than trying to land a 900x return.
You have to remember 90% of traders lose 90% of their accounts in 90 days...
This can easily be attributed to things like;
Buying signals
Following influencers
Over trading
Trading too small a timeframe
Trying to find a silver bullet
As a professional - you can seek smaller returns, spend less time in front of the charts and let your money work for you, instead of you doing all the chasing!
As the amount of capital rises, so does your desire for risk. You might still have the appetite for returns but not at the cost of risk.
As a professional trader, you can afford the luxury of trading a bias and scaling into a trade - you will find fund managers who have what's known as secondary investment capital (in essence to add to winning positions).
So although this is not going to be what you want to hear, it's what you need to know.
There's always chasing the dream, but why not wake up and make it a reality?
Enjoy the weekend all!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Every man and his dogI have seen more and more Wyckoff posts recently, well - here's another one!
I was trading Wyckoff methodology when it wasn't cool. Unfortunately for the masses, it's not as easy as an 'influencer' will have you believe, from seeing their posts - they clearly lack the understanding and are simply joining the 'HYPE' club for view count.
A few years back I went into some depth on Bitcoin's phases as you can see below;
Here you would expect the mark up and straight into a Point and Figure forecasted level, which then became 'Re-accumulation'
As the price moved up, you could see as clear as day a nice AR move; I'll go into that shortly. But this was the sign of professional involvement.
This chart was posted on the 18th of March to highlight the BC (also cover in a second) Why was it so obvious? It was smacking us in the face with the fact it had it's re-accumulation phase earlier - although many said the 60+ thousand level was the accumulation. Point and Figure analysis had the range mapped out and as we neared the zone, the AR come into play.
To understand this, I have drafted the help of my good friend Chat GPT to explain this like we are 10 years old.
Imagine you have a jar filled with your favorite candies, and you really want to collect as many as possible. Here's how the stages of a Wyckoff accumulation schematic can be related to this candy scenario:
Stage 1: Markdown Phase
In this stage, you notice that the candies are on sale and their price has been reduced. This makes you excited because you can buy more candies with the same amount of money. So, you start buying some candies, taking advantage of the lower prices. Other people also notice the sale and start buying candies too. This is like the first stage in Wyckoff accumulation, where prices are falling, and smart investors start buying.
Stage 2: Absorption Phase
In this stage, you and other candy lovers continue buying candies, but you start to notice that even though you're buying a lot, the price doesn't go down as much as it used to. It's like the candies are getting harder to find on sale. This means that there are fewer candies available at the lower price, and more people are buying them. You and others keep buying as many candies as you can, but you start to realize that the sale might be ending soon.
Stage 3: Markup Phase
Now, the sale is over, and the candies are back to their regular price. However, you notice that the candies you bought during the sale are now worth more than what you paid for them. You feel happy because you made a smart decision to buy them when they were cheap. Other people who missed the sale also want to buy candies now, but the price is higher. You may decide to sell some of your candies at a higher price to those who want them. This is like the third stage in Wyckoff accumulation, where prices start to rise, and the smart investors who bought earlier can sell for a profit.
So, to summarize, in the Wyckoff accumulation schematic, we have the markdown phase where prices fall, the absorption phase where prices stabilize, and the markup phase where prices rise. Just like buying candies on sale, smart investors try to buy assets when their prices are low and sell them when prices go up.
=====================================================================
So now you got the basic idea of Wyckoff phases; this is still a very hard thing to spot. It helps if you have a bias and of course background as to where the price has been. When I posted the "Rocket call" in March 21, we had seen the Buyers Climax which can be defined like this; A major panic that occurs at the end of a steep ascent in prices. In its classical form it is typified by large range reversal in prices accompanied by large volume.
However to simplify this further; contrary to popular 'influencer' belief - Large operator don't go chasing 100x returns, their seeking to make money in all environments and often over a much longer time frame than retail would like. So think of a buyers climax like the bigger players have reached a target that they are comfortable with, the level of returns are sufficient. They sell off as retail are buying every little dip on their 15 minute chart.
An AR is an Automatic Reaction to either a buyers or sellers climax (for more, read the post below - Wyckoff basics explained)
Once we dropped to the 4 level marked up in March. The move away was ugly, it was low volume from the get go. Meaning a lack of overall interest (at the time) But under the surface, there was more to it. A lot more to it to be honest!
I covered the Wyckoff Distribution in this educational post;
So, we dropped "exactly as predicted" into a range that was measured only to rise on low, depleting volume. You would then expect a re-accumulation and the measurement for the extension is again mapped out.
Re-read the Chat GPT section above.
You see, Wyckoff can be useful if you know how to use it properly... People often say things like "it's over 100 years old, it can't work in these markets" Or they try and make patterns out of every move, clearly lacking the understanding.
As I explained in August 21 on the way to the current All Time High - the price could be plotted as the image above shows. Volume and COT intel plays a major part here, the sell off was going to be quick to the 40k level - why? Well, it was re-distribution in play.
And just like that January 22 through to May was also mapped out...
Once we got that break down lower, you could assess the Point and Figure regions.
And just like that, we are back into Accumulation. To the MOOOOON!!! ... Not so fast, as this is a much bigger cycle you have to look out for volume, what the bigger players are manipulating and assess the overall situation, being a bigger schematic it is likely to be a slower burner. Refer back to the Chat GPT section above.
========================================================================
Wyckoff, Elliott and Dow Theory still works today as it's not a study of technical charts to be honest, they understood the depth of psychology, retail sentiment based on an individuals own mindset. I have covered the psychology around this in several posts including the Simpsons one! Here's a quick look at the cycle.
Now, place these retail sentiment analysts together.
You see, things don't have to be complex to work.
Zoom out and if you have read this post well enough, you might spot the next clue as to where exactly we are. If you already know me or follow my posts and educational content, you might spot not only where we are, but why.
Anyways, I hope this helps at least one person out there!
Have a great week!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
USDT vs USDC Reserve BreakdownUSDT (Tether) vs USDC (Circle) reserves☝️
USDT seems to be more diversified then USDC, as they’ve split their reserves into 7 different asset classes. Compared to USDC who are only diversified into 3.
USDT has a healthy 4% of their reserves in Gold, which is up 8% year to date SO FAR. They’re more likely to survive a liquidation process, compared to USDT when the next Crypto crash happens💥
Let's all jump inWhen you first start trading, everything seems like a good idea! You want to take every trade, use every indicator, watch every video and stream! Be like every influencer!
You get this feeling that you found something new, that you are the chosen one.
Unfortunately, it's for this same reason - 90% of new retail traders lose 90% of their money in the first 90 days...
Here are some key pointers to keep you safe!
1) Risk Management; learning to manage risk is key. If you want to gamble away your savings, Vegas is a lot more fun than the markets. Trust me, I speak from experience in both!
2) Create a plan that suits the type of lifestyle you have, if your working full time then scalping every couple of minutes is not doing you any favours. Take the long road. If you have time but don't want to stare at screens all day, then don't go scalping either. Not saying, don't do scalping or it's no good. Just emphasising, to pick your own style.
3) Don't follow influencers! I cover this topic a lot, people often ask me about Plan B or some other random guy. The issue is, these guys don't trade, they shill affiliate links and film 4 Youtube videos a day! They make their money by having followers and views. Just look at this below;
This was the message from the top! Where would you be now? Leveraged long positions?
This aspect has become, possibly one of the biggest factors for how people lose in the crypto space. You get sold a dream by following demo traders! Take our friend Carl, I called him out after seeing his demo trading on a video.
The guy is practically calling every top a pump and go long from here...
4) Follow the big players; not the whales, the institutions. When you know where their bias is, you have a lot more probability getting the direction correct.
5) Search for key levels; regardless of a technique - this could be supply and demand levels, Fib pullbacks, Wyckoff Schematics or Elliott Waves.
Don't trust only one, and please, please, please! Don't get lazy and just follow something you seen in a video. Do your own due diligence.
For example; I see 2 Elliott Wave scenarios here for Bitcoin.
This is the first option.
The second has a 4 where the 2 is of a move one degree lower. I've covered this in my streams.
It's knowing the logic behind the market sentiment that will help you figure out the general direction, this is why knowing the bigger players in the space is useful. As you can see from my post here - each call is on @tradingview
6) Do your own research to create your own plan, that should fit around your lifestyle or at least your current circumstance.
7) Repeat step 1 through 6.
These moves are choreographed, like you wouldn't believe. Don't believe me?
On the way up to the 65k all time high at the time; you could see the re-accumulation take place.
As we neared the extension levels, you could see the distribution sequence start. I covered this with a lesson on Wyckoff at the time.
These levels were already mapped out, months in advance of the actual move.
From there and up to the current all time high.
Why would it move like that? why would it stop where it did? These are the questions you need to ask, if you want to take trading seriously.
You won't qualify as a doctor or a lawyer after watching a handful of videos. You won't make it as a trader either if that's your expectation.
Finally,
Here's some logic for you - are we likely to reach $100k Bitcoin on this move up?
Monthly stochastic level would say otherwise...
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
The Howey Test: securities and cryptocurrencies / Ripple vs SECThe Howey Test
The Howey Test is a legal test to assess whether certain transactions are investment contracts. If a transaction is an investment contract, it can be considered a security by the SEC. It is subject to specific disclosure and registration obligations under federal securities laws.
The test got its name after the 1946 Supreme Court decision in SEC v. W. J. Howey Co., 328 U.S. 293 (1946). So, in this the Court defined an investment contract. Since then, courts throughout the United States have employed the Howey Test. This to evaluate whether a specific transaction qualifies as an investment contract. If so, it will then be handled as a security.
In fact, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has long used the Howey test. In its most basic form, the Howey test requires that a transaction involve the following:
(1) an investment of money
(2) in a common enterprise
(3) with an expectation of profits predominantly from the efforts of others.
Digital assets
Cryptocurrencies, digital or virtual tokens that use cryptography for security, have garnered much attention recently for their potential to take on fiat currencies. Their legal classification, however, has been unclear. For example, in the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been struggling to determine whether cryptocurrencies are securities. On June 14 in 2018, the SEC finally released its long-awaited report on The DAO, a decentralized autonomous organization that had raised over $150 million in a token sale. The SEC’s report stated that cryptocurrencies can be securities and that The DAO was an illegal security offering.
Actually, the digital asset space is emerging and constantly changing. A digital asset is a unit of value created and managed by its creators that may be exchanged on an online marketplace. As a result, they are subject to the same rules as conventional securities. However, in many places, the legitimacy of digital assets is still being contested. Digital assets are frequently regarded as securities. This is primarily due to the fact that digital assets are frequently used to raise finance for a company. According to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), digital assets may constitute securities. As a result, digital assets could be subject to federal securities regulations.
Moreover, regulatory agencies are struggling to adapt to the rise in digital assets. These agencies must answer the question of whether digital assets should be seen as securities. Yet, the majority of digital assets are currently not registered with the SEC, which raises the question of whether the SEC has the authority to regulate digital assets.
Ripple
One company that the SEC has been investigating is Ripple, the company behind the cryptocurrency XRP. Ripple is facing a lawsuit from the SEC which alleges that it violated securities laws by selling $1.3 billion worth of XRP tokens. The SEC is seeking to determine whether Ripple’s XRP token is a security. So, the outcome of this case will likely have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency industry as a whole.
Furthermore, the SEC settles the majority of its lawsuits rather than going to trial. Individual cryptocurrency enterprises must comply with SEC orders and pay penalties in order to be released. Ripple, unlike many others, went all the way and participated in a legal brawl.
Ripple has particularly referenced some of the SEC members' connections to other crypto platforms, specifically Ethereum. While there is no proof of these connections at this time, the commission gave Ethereum a pass on securities legislation. They claim that it operates in a decentralized manner while using XRP. This seems very fishy.
As a result, Ripple perceived the SEC as prejudiced in its application of the security concept to virtual currencies such as XRP. However, Ripple's lawyers stated that the SEC never warned or notified the company. Also, Ripple wasn’t advised that XRP could be categorized as a security, according to the US regulator.
Conclusion
It is still unclear who will end up winning. For now, the assumption is that the final date will be somewhere in March 2023. The thing that matters is that the results will affect the crypto market in one way or the other. Therefore, for the benefit of the whole crypto industry, it is important for Ripple to get away with a win.
Smart money dumb tradesThe major issue with 99% of retail, is that they seek tops and bottoms. They watch a video or read a post and DIVE not knowing, or understanding some simple logic.
To be a successful trader you need a level head. As soon as you realise profits are made in a range and not by trying to time market tops and bottoms, there more you succeed. There are thousands of techniques out there, some that have a high hit rate, others that don't, some are complex and some are simple. In instruments such as Bitcoin - you also now have tools such as on chain data. The issue is and will always be, liquidity. Money is made by someone else losing!
Retail will see things like Elliott wave and dismiss it - "ah it's old, ah it's broken, ah I don't get it..." We as humans can find the good, the bad and the ugly with all techniques.
All we are really trying to do is, re-affirm our personal opinions, defending loyalties and find angles to attack anything that is not aligned with our desired outcome. Hindsight equals the ability to explain the past but in doing so, creates an illusion that we "now understand" it all makes sense. People don't understand because they cannot explain it. Regardless of wanting to or not. Our own unique perspective is built on our own unique experiences - trying to make sense of the complicated situation.
The reason I talk about this - is that when you only take snippets of data from one source, or worse, several sources. It's so easy to get confused and mix up your own beliefs. In this current BTC scenario - people are desperate for a bottom to be in. It's all they seek, so when an influencer or educator mumbles the words - bottom, they assume it's to the moon we go. Thus, supporting the personal belief and desire.
Every professional trading strategy, requires confirmation. If the expectation is we rise from here - we need logic as to why? if it is we are likely to drop - then, what's the reason for that drop?
Over the last 2 years, I have made some of my Bitcoin calls public. There is a lot more behind the scenes that does not get posted, so what you should not do is - read a small percentage of a post or watch the first few minutes of a live stream and dive in. Your missing the bigger picture!
This doesn't just apply to my posts - this is in general. This will help you in the long run. You need your own level of understanding for the logic behind the move.
I can show post like this back in March this year;
And the outcome was as predicated -
We grabbed liquidity and dropped seeking a better accumulation range.
I've talked about value areas - this post goes back another year...
The outcome -
For me, it's knowing the "why".
The lesson here - is no obtain a bias of your own. Work on that to see inside the move.
My view is pretty much as I have talked about this last 14-18 months...
We have seen some stopping action.
Now you look out for a range -
Obvious liquidity in this zone.
So this is 100% a lesson and not a call. Now look at the range in detail, you will see a fair value level hidden in there.
Same goes for knowing the "why" - as Bitcoin becomes more institutional, it becomes more and more respectful. But as it does, tops and bottoms are still not what your targeting. Look at this from Feb last year from the first rally all time high.
Look at the post date.
These things are playing a game - it's all about understanding the rules.
On the way back up from the low shown in March last year, why would there be evidence for a truncation?
This image was the 24th of August. We go on to climax just above the 65k region...
Liquidity is the name of the game..
This post is the first in the Liquidity series of posts here on @TradingView
Have a great weekend!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BTCUSDT - read to people with IQ over 100🧠
To begin with, you don’t see all this, because you rested on your indicators, on the thoughts of opinion leaders who themselves don’t really understand anything about trading and earn only on you.
On this platform, I have a lot of ideas related to numbers, check them out. It is very important for me that you guess what these or those values mean.
Try to simply see how many references to 33 leave Elon Musk and NASA, even every launch and spacewalk of an astronaut is accompanied by an impulse in one direction or another on the chart not only of BTC but also of the stock market. All this can be analyzed because it is all done for the sake of profit and the direction of the process in the right direction.
Let's start with what does 33/13 mean? This number means a new beginning, the start of something new - numerology is not a stereotyped understanding that was imposed on you so that you are not specifically interested in it, namely, from the mathematical side of Gann, Fibonacci is all numerology, all great mathematicians were numerologists, but some then the dudes who sell their courses talk about how it's all nonsense. All numbers have certain meanings that were created by ancient civilizations such as Maya.
You are wrong, the author, maybe you can add the Sumerians here?
I will attribute all astronomy, calendars, star maps, how many days in a year and hours in a day were studied thousands and thousands of years ago.
I also pointed out many examples of practicing the number 14 - directing energy towards resistance or support, balance. Which brought a large% profit, just trading from the levels that were formed by large players in the order book or there were marks on the chart. How 888 means the price goes in the opposite direction by a step more than 2%, which you can easily pick up with a stop of 0.4%, but you don’t see it. Open your eyes, wake up and for God's sake stop reading and listening to the opinions of those who direct the crowd, because that's how they cut you like hamsters.
in plotting I used arc system and degree system, you can find all the information on this great platform. The bottom line is to take trend lines and draw lines along them using cycles in parallel. In general, you can see this on the chart.
a similar system can be applied to any liquid instrument such as the stock market, raw materials, gold, metals, indices, currency pairs, etc. Even on low-liquid shieldcoins. Depends on your imagination and understanding of the process.
Notice how cycle 333 indicates the next BTC low or high. Subscribe here a lot of interesting things, like the idea
How To Analyze Any Chart From Scratch - Episode 2Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Today we are going to go over a practical example on XRP, but you can apply the same logic / strategy on any instrument.
Feel free to ask questions or request any instrument for the next episode.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Lovely triangle on XRPNice and simple breakout of triangle using Vema trader, I used the crossing strat (of horizontal line) paired with an on candle close order, meaning it entered me on the 4Hr when the candle closed below this level.
Shorted this down to a previous price level. Simple but works!
Excuse my stop loss, it was more of a guess than anything as I had to predict where there might be market structure, as I was AFK when it triggered.
The ins and outs of trading psychologyThe ins and outs of trading psychology
For something that I believe makes up the bulk of trading itself, I believe it is also the most overlooked. Trading psychology is what I am talking about, and it is definitely the most important aspect of trading that every trader needs to develop and master in order to become successful.
In the most basic ways to put it, trading psychology is the term that defines all the feelings and emotions experienced day to day by traders. It is not something that can easily be controlled, however with time and experience it is definitely something that is needed to master in order to move forward in your trading journey.
The two emotions that drive the markets are fear and greed. Based on these two emotions, you can find all the negative effects of trading psychology.
Based on the emotion of fear, the following can occur:
• Fear of missing out (FOMO), leading to bad entries
• Exiting a trade too early
• Exiting a trade in a drawdown only to see it go in their original direction
• Adding to a losing position in hope of recovering the drawdown
• Constantly checking your trade
• Finding yourself glued to the charts
Based on the emotion of greed, the following can occur:
• Moving your original TP in order to gain more profits
• Adding large positions after seeing gains in a position
• Over trading and overleveraging to chase big returns
• Risking big on a single trade
Another important thing that needs to be understood is the difference between mistakes and losses. A lot of people think that trading mistakes and trading losses are the same thing. However, a trading loss is simply a trade that hit your stop loss and did not go your way. Until the day you learn to accept that losses are just as much a part of trading as winners, you will not become successful. A trading mistake on the other hand is you simply not following your own rules. You have to understand the importance of being disciplined and how it is possibly the single most important aspect of lasting in the markets. Never break your own rules just to be right, because as said earlier, you need to learn that losses are completely normal and expected.
Emotions are a normal part of everyday life, however it cannot be stressed enough how important it is to leave them completely out of your trading. Many others believe that negative emotions should be shut off, however positive emotions are great to have, however I think otherwise. Emotions should not be attached in any way to trades, whether positive or negative. If emotions are attached to every single trade then what can happen is that you could have a great week and make a certain amount of money that week. Now by attaching an emotion to that trade, you are programming your mind to believe that the following week even if half that amount was made, it is not good enough as you do not have the same intensity of positive emotions. In trading you have to be emotionless towards both wins and losses and strictly follow your rules.
Constantly working on your psychology and mindset is key to developing and succeeding as a trader. Something as simple as developing a daily morning routine, keeping a journal, meditation, exercise, and visiting a mindset coach, are great tools to constantly develop and keep your psychology and mindset at its best. Meditation alone has helped me to develop as a successful trader by improving my focus and attention, reducing stress, reduced panic, improved my information processing, increased mental strength and emotional intelligence, and increase in my focus.
If there is one thing that cannot be stressed enough, it is that the aim of forex is to gain pips and not money. Chasing money, especially fast money, is gambling and you will never have control as long as you remain with that attitude.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence Indicator Visual EducationHello Traders,
Today I wanted to go over one of my favorite as well as one of the most widely used tools in trading, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.
This moving average indicator was created invented in 1979 by Gerald Appel responsible for the MACD line and Signal line and later added to this was the histogram, developed by Thomas Aspray in 1986.
Now that you know who created the MACD indicator lets discuss the components of the indicator. The MACD indicator consists of 4 main components, the Signal line , the MACD line , the histogram and the zero line of the histogram often referred to as the baseline.
Below are the calculations of the different components to help you better understand what makes up this indicator.
MACD Indicator Components and Calculations (White Labelling)
Signal Line
Red colored smooth line
The signal line is simply an exponential (weighted) moving average (EMA) based on the prior 26 days closing price.
As with any EMA the formula looks like this: EMA = Closing price x 26 + EMA (previous day) x (1-26)
MACD Line
Blue colored rigid line
The MACD line, similarly to the Signal Line is also an EMA based on the prior 12 day closing price.
Also, similarly to the signal line it uses a similar equation to display the line which is: EMA = Closing price x 12 + EMA (previous day) x (1-12)
Histogram
Green and Red vertical bars charted around a horizontal axis known as the baseline.
The histogram is determined by subtracting the signal line from the MACD line. This is easier to interpret than looking at the two lines alone,
since it is sometimes difficult to tell if one curve is steeper than the other. The histogram is positive when MACD is higher than its nine-day EMA, and negative when it is lower. This oscillator is
definitely a nice touch to the indicator as a whole and my personal favorite indication for divergence which I will teach you more about in part 2 of this series.
Histogram Zero line Aka "Baseline"
This is the line in the center of the histogram oscillator that is also referred to as the baseline. This line is important as you will see later when I explain the signals this indicator creates. This line is calculated by the MACD Line and the Signal line crossing. Which is another way for you to see that the lines are crossing both bullish and bearish crosses.
The calculations behind each part of the indicator is not really information that you need to remember as @TradingView has put a nice suite of house tools for you to use that
calculate this for you but, I find that the more you know the better you are able to understand these charts and who knows, maybe someday this will help you crate your own
indicator using the pine script editor they also make available to us for free. Also, if you understand the math it helps you when editing the settings to adjust indicators better
per the asset you are trading.
MACD Indicator Signals (Yellow and Teal Labelling)
Now lets go over the signals that this indicator produces help with the way you can utilize this indicator to help you trade. A key note to remember is that the MACD indicator is a Moving average
indicator and is best used in a trending market. You can identify a trending market by looking for price action that is heading in one solid direction up or down. Tending markets are usually noted by “higher highs”
and “higher lows” in an uptrend and “lower highs” and “lower lows” in a downtrend . This indicator is best used to help you determine trend reversals. There are also 3 major signal components to this indicator but, in this first series we are only going to discuss 2 as it is important to understand this indicator before moving onto the next step and applying the more advanced features. These 3 major components are MACD line crossing over the Signal line and both signal line and MACD lines crossing over the zero line on the histogram .
MACD Cross (Yellow)
The top MACD line (red rigid line) crossing down over the Signal line (Blue smooth line) is a bearish signal and generally indicates a sell signal letting you know that the price action has potentially came to the end of an uptrend. Again, this is used mainly in trending markets and can be very helpful to assisting in taking profit in a long position or starting a new short position.
In contrast to the bearish MACD cross , you can also see on the bottom of the chart that there is an indication of a bullish cross of the MACD line (Red rigid line) over the Signal line (Blue smooth line). This would be a good indication the the downtrend has ended and it may be a good time to start a long position or close a short position.
The Histogram Zero line cross (Teal)
There are 2 signals you can get from this but the one that matters in my opinion the most is the signal line. So for the sake of explanation I have shown them both together as both bearish and bullish signals on the chart. Now that you know about the signal line and the MACD line it should be easy to identify when these two lines are crossing the zero line of the histogram that we have also discussed. As shown in the chart you can see that the bullish cross is showing the two lines coming from below the Zero Line and crossing above which would be a bullish signal and you would be looking for a buy, potential start of or continuation of an uptrend. On the contrary, if these lines crossed from above the Zero line below then this would be a bearish sell signal and you would be looking to open a short position, be looking for a reversal of an uptrend or continuation of a downtrend.
Now here are some key takeaways and tips you will want to always follow when using this or any other indicator.
#1: Make sure you know the type of market you are trading by analyzing the market structure. Is it trending and creating higher highs and higher lows, lower highs and lower lows? Or is it ranging in almost a rectangular box?
#2: KNOW YOUR INDICATOR and the best market it is used in, again, the MACD Indicator is best used in a trending market!
#3: This is probably the most important of the 3, It is a must that you learn everything about each indicator you are using and to never use ONE indicator/Oscillator for signals stand alone by itself. Trading just like anything else in life is a numbers game and the better statistics you have, the better outcome you will receive.
Congratulations Traders! You now know the basics of the MACD Indicator!!! I hope you will come back for part two and three of this series that I will be releasing after the new year to help some of the new traders entering this ever expanding community here on TradingVeiw!
Part 2: MACD and RSI Divergences Visual Education Release 01/01/2022
Part 3: Falling wedges and Fibs Release 01/02/2022
I hope you had a green year and look forward to learning and trading with all of you winners next year!
Happy New Years,
Savvy
Wyckoff Price CycleHello Traders,
Today I wanted to show you a little bit of information to help you understand the market cycle in a Wyckoff Price Cycle. Richard Wyckoff was a world renowned trader from over 100 years ago who gained notoriety back in the roaring 20's. You should take some time to get to know him and his teachings. Here is an understanding of his development of the price cycle.
According to Wyckoff, the market can be understood and anticipated through detailed analysis of supply and demand, which can be ascertained from studying price action, volume and time. As a broker, he was in a position to observe the activities of highly successful individuals and groups who dominated specific issues; consequently, he was able to decipher, via the use of what he called vertical (bar) and figure (Point and Figure) charts, the future intentions of those large interests. An idealized schematic of how he conceptualized the large interests' preparation for and execution of bull and bear markets is depicted in the figure below. The time to enter long orders is towards the end of the preparation for a price markup or bull market (accumulation of large lines of stock), while the time to initiate short positions is at the end of the preparation for price markdown.
Wyckoff's chart-based methodology rests on three fundamental “laws” that affect many aspects of analysis. These include determining the market's and individual stocks' current and potential future directional bias, selecting the best stocks to trade long or short, identifying the readiness of a stock to leave a trading range and projecting price targets in a trend from a stock’s behavior in a trading range. These laws inform the analysis of every chart and the selection of every stock to trade.
1. The law of supply and demand determines the price direction. This principle is central to Wyckoff's method of trading and investing. When demand is greater than supply, prices rise, and when supply is greater than demand, prices fall. The trader/analyst can study the balance between supply and demand by comparing price and volume bars over time. This law is deceptively simple, but learning to accurately evaluate supply and demand on bar charts, as well as understanding the implications of supply and demand patterns, takes considerable practice.
2. The law of cause and effect helps the trader and investor set price objectives by gauging the potential extent of a trend emerging from a trading range. Wyckoff's “cause” can be measured by the horizontal point count in a Point and Figure chart, while the “effect” is the distance price moves corresponding to the point count. This law's operation can be seen as the force of accumulation or distribution within a trading range, as well as how this force works itself out in a subsequent trend or movement up or down. Point and Figure chart counts are used to measure a cause and project the extent of its effect. (See “Point and Figure Count Guide” below for an illustration of this law.)
3. The law of effort versus result provides an early warning of a possible change in trend in the near future. Divergences between volume and price often signal a change in the direction of a price trend. For example, when there are several high-volume (large effort) but narrow-range price bars after a substantial rally, with the price failing to make a new high (little or no result), this suggests that big interests are unloading shares in anticipation of a change in trend.
This is just a start, it is up to you to develop the rest of your knowledge. I will be posting some more later.
As always, have a GREEN week.
Savvy
Ripple (XRP) Model PriceAn article titled Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model was published in March 2019 by "PlanB" with mathematical model used to calculate Bitcoin model price during the time. We know that Ripple has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. But does this correlation have a definite rule?
In this study, we examine the relationship between bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and the ripple(XRP) price.
The Halving and the stock-to-flow ratio
Stock-to-flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there.
SF = stock / flow
The term "halving" as it relates to Bitcoin has to do with how many Bitcoin tokens are found in a newly created block. Back in 2009, when Bitcoin launched, each block contained 50 BTC, but this amount was set to be reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years). Today, there have been three halving events, and a block now only contains 6.25 BTC. When the next halving occurs, a block will only contain 3.125 BTC. Halving events will continue until the reward for minors reaches 0 BTC.
With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio increased and Bitcoin experienced a huge bull market that absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But what exactly does this affect the price of Ripple?
Price Model
I have used Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and Ripple's price data from April 1, 2014 to November 3, 2021 (Daily Close-Price) as the statistical population.
Then I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the natural logarithm of the Ripple price and the natural logarithm of the Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF).
You can see the results in the image below:
Basic Equation : ln(Model Price) = 3.2977 * ln(BSF) - 12.13
The high R-Squared value (R2 = 0.83) indicates a large positive linear association.
Then I "winsorized" the statistical data to limit extreme values to reduce the effect of possibly spurious outliers (This process affected less than 4.5% of the total price data).
ln(Model Price) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214
If we raise the both sides of the equation to the power of e, we will have:
============================================
Final Equation:
■ Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * BSF ^ 3.3297
Where BSF is Bitcoin's stock-to-flow
============================================
If we put current Bitcoin's stock-to-flow value (54.2) into this equation we get value of 2.95USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model.
There is a power law relationship between the market price and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). Power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems.
I plotted XRP model price (black) over time on the chart.
Estimating the range of price movements
I also used several bands to estimate the range of price movements and used the residual standard deviation to determine the equation for those bands.
Residual STDEV = 0.82188
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 + Residual STDEV =>
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) – 11.392 =>
■ First-Upper-Band = Exp(-11.392) * BSF ^ 3.3297
In the same way:
■ First-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.036) * BSF ^ 3.3297
I also used twice the residual standard deviation to define two extra bands:
■ Second-Upper-Band = Exp(-10.570) * BSF ^ 3.3297
■ Second-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.858) * BSF ^ 3.3297
These bands can be used to determine overbought and oversold levels.
Estimating of the future price movements
Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future.
At the time of the next halving event, Bitcoins will be produced at a rate of 450 BTC / day. There will be around 19,900,000 coins in circulation by August 2025
It is estimated that during first year of Bitcoin (2009) Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin creator) mined around 1 million Bitcoins and did not move them until today. It can be debated if those coins might be lost or Satoshi is just waiting still to sell them but the fact is that they are not moving at all ever since. We simply decrease stock amount for 1 million BTC so stock to flow value would be:
BSF = (19,900,000 – 1.000.000) / (450 * 365) =115.07
Thus, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow will increase to around 115 until AUG 2025. If we put this number in the equation:
Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * 114 ^ 3.3297 = 36.06$
Ripple has a fixed supply rate. In AUG 2025, the total number of coins in circulation will be about 56,000,000,000. According to the equation, Ripple's market cap will reach $2 trillion.
Note that these studies have been conducted only to better understand price movements and are not a financial advice.
Related indicator:
✅Think like a Whale, act like a Whale! ✅In Crypto Space most of the Whales keep their value in BTC (900B marketcap) instead of USDT. (65B marketcap). There are significant exchanges from btc to large-scale projects such as XRP when these reach favorable relative values. Trading volumes are ridiculously higher in 2021, so we anticipate a big rise in the price of XRP over the next few weeks.
PS: Some people think that studing prices versus BTC is not important but, special if you are a swing trader, it is crucial.
Top 10 Cryptocurrencies & Their Real World UsesIn this video we explain the real world use cases of each of the top 10 cryptocurrencies. A lot of focus in crypto is focused on the price and the volatility of each coin without many people necessary understanding what their purposes are.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Digital Gold, a store of wealth and protection against inflation… this is because there’s a limited supply of BTC (21 Million) that will ever be mined. It’s supply cannot be inflated like FIAT currencies (Dollar, Pound, Euro etc) can simply be printed.
Collateral in DeFi, in many DeFi (Decentralised Finance) Bitcoin is used as collateral for you to borrow against the value of in return for a cryptocurrency loan for example. We will explain DeFi in a little more detail later.
Banking the unbanked, in many struggling economies (El Salvador for example) Bitcoin is a useful way for communities to gain access to banking facilities. While in many of those regions economies are still largely cash-driven and people cannot afford to pay for transportation to visit banks for registration, the number of those who have access to or own mobile phones is increasing. Thus, using digital wallets to transfer Bitcoin independent of traditional banks may provide a viable alternative for people without a bank account to participate in finance and to create a store of value.
Ethereum (ETH)
Smart contracts, In essence, smart contracts are created to automatically execute and complete processes, such as a payment process, in digitised form. This is the key to Ethereum’s success and its core use case. It enables developers to create complex applications powered by Ethereum’s platform.
DeFi applications, The largest category of smart contracts on Ethereum’s platform is in the form of Decentralised Finance applications.
With DeFi, you can do most of the things that banks support — earn interest, borrow, lend, buy insurance, trade derivatives, trade assets, and more — but it’s faster and doesn’t require paperwork or a third party. As with crypto generally, DeFi is global, peer-to-peer (meaning directly between two people, not routed through a centralized system), and open to all.
NFTs, an emerging use case for Ethereum is in the form of payment for NFTs… you will find that most NFT’s prices are denominated in ETH. NFTs for anyone that isn’t aware are essentially digital art that its authenticity is confirmed in blockchain data.
Think of it as a version of the Twitter blue tick for limited edition digital art.
Cardano (ADA)
Store of Value & Smart Contracts - The Cardano coin can be used as a transfer of value in a similar way that cash is currently used. This is not very different from other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Bitcoin, but ADA has other uses as well.
One of the core principles of Cardano is its PoS blockchain protocol where ADA is staked to the blockchain to successfully verify transactions on the blockchain. This is where Cardano crypto comes in handy. Those who stake their ADA to the blockchain are rewarded for their efforts with more Cardano crypto in return. This staking system helps maintain security throughout the blockchain.
There is also the use of ADA in voting. In Cardano, unlike other blockchain projects, it is not miners who vote and decide on changes to the protocol, it is token holders. Therefore, when a new change or development is proposed to the Cardano blockchain, Cardano crypto holders use their ADA to vote on these proposals. This way, everyone who owns the cryptocurrency has a say in its development.
ADA also can be used to power the smart contract platform on the Cardano blockchain. Developers utilise ADA to create smart contracts and applications that run on the secure, decentralised Cardano blockchain.
In the case of running smart contracts it is cheaper in transaction fees than Ethereum.
Tether (USDT)
Stablecoin - Backed by US dollars and value is pegged to always be at-or very close to £1 per 1 USDT
Transferring Crypto - Lots of people will use Tether as a middleman when transferring money from one cryptocurrency to another without paying the fees associated either between each crypto or back and forth into Fiat currencies.
Generating a Yield - Some tether users also simply hold their funds in Tether because it generates a higher yield or interest rate than their money would in a bank for example.
Binance Coin (BNB)
Binance Coin is the cryptocurrency issued by the Binance exchange and trades with the BNB symbol.
BNB was initially based on the Ethereum network but is now the native currency of Binance's own blockchain, the Binance chain.
Every quarter, Binance uses one-fifth of its profits to repurchase and permanently destroy, or "burn," Binance coins held in its treasury.
Binance was created as a utility token for discounted trading fees in 2017, but its uses have expanded to numerous applications, including payments for transaction fees (on the Binance Chain), travel bookings, entertainment, online services, and financial services.
Ripple (XRP)
Very quick & cheap cross border payments
,
The primary use case for XRP is intended to be for transfer of other currencies (or indeed commodities or assets such as gold or oil) over the Ripple network. Each time a money (or asset) transferring organisation such as a bank uses the network to conduct a transfer and settlement, the cost is deducted in a small amount of XRP.
Cross-border payments between banks and organisations currently run on a system called SWIFT… a system created in 1973. This is essentially what Ripple and its coin XRP could replace with a much quicker and cheaper system.
Solana (SOL)
Smart Contracts platform.
Much in the same way that both Ethereum & Cardano is used on a day to day basis as developers who make applications on the Solana blockchain pay SOL coins for the processing / transaction fees.
Large numbers of NFTs are also available on the Solana blockchain.
Polkadot (DOT)
Interoperability - Allow different blockchains to talk to each other and share data / features between each other. This is useful for developers when making new blockchains, as they are able to use sections of features from different chains without the need to create them from scratch each time.
Unlimited Supply - Unlike most other cryptocurrencies, DOT isn’t limited in supply. This is designed to incentivise the network and dynamically adjust according to participation rates of users.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Meme coin which was originally created as a joke or parody of the crypto world.
Now however has gained massive popularity and even is considered for payments as a real world use. This is still to be widely accepted however.
USDC (USDC)
Stablecoin, backed by US dollars and value is pegged to always be at-or very close to £1 per 1 USDT. Not as popular or widely used by the market than Tether.
The greatest teacher, failure is.Why I add drawings to my TA - mostly as I have time and enjoy entertaining on serious topics. Brighten up the world of @TradingView for you guys.
In the recent months since the Rocket call - (BTC Drop to 30k from 60k+) its been a slow steady burn on the weekly 3-4 move in terms of Elliott Wave. I have spent the time putting together some educational content as well as some of the defined logic for the drop itself, the moves down and of course the current situation.
If you haven't been following the post, here are a few to help you along.
1) Elliott Roadmap (click the image for a link to the post)
This is how it's playing out;
2) Wyckoff Distribution - during the move down, many people turned to "Wyckoff" as it was widely publicised by the media and the usual crypto GURU. The irony was, back in March they all had it as Re-Accumulation.
(Click image for link to post)
Taken this further and into stage 2 of the basics;
(Click link)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3) I have written on the topic of assessment of alt coins, crypto in general and buying the dips. (click on the links again for posts)
-
-
-
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4) Streams; Myself or @Paul_Varcoe put out daily streams, Paul usually does the 10:30 AM (UK Time) and myself the 3:30 PM (UK Time) Recently we have been talking about the length of time, expectations and logic supporting the moves and dynamics.
www.tradingview.com
www.tradingview.com
Paul's stream are done as a viewers request series, so go ask him what you want.
If you dedicate the time to read through these articles above and watch the couple of streams posted here. It will all make sense, feel calm like Yoda. Enjoy your trading!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Educational chronology Over the last couple of Months, I have published some educational content here @TradingView and wanted to correlate them into one post as they now cover several pages.
Starting with some of the fundamentals and into more of the advanced topics;
EACH IMAGE IS A LINK TO THE ACTUAL POSTS
Starting with Psychology - one of the most important things to pick up on early. There are some great books on trading psychology, one of the best in my personal experience is Trading In the Zone by Mark Douglas.
I expanded on this psychology one - by adding cartoons to break down the stages.
As for some good books see this post;
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When starting (many new traders are joining sites such as TradingView) for crypto. So when assessing companies/coins to invest in - it's good to have some depth on the company. Here's a guide on assessing alt coins;
Another relevant topic in crypto - as there will be dips! IS how to buy the dips.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chart basics
Trendlines;
Moving Averages;
Mixing timeframes on the chart;
A little more advanced
MACD;
Confusion in Indicators;
Gann Fans;
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Emotional analysis - Elliott & Wyckoff
Why I called this emotional analysis - is that the way Elliott & Wyckoff could read the situation above the chart price, the fact that human behavior drives markets. Composite man (Wyckoff story) controls the markets based on understanding how humans think. Means this is less technical and more emotional.
Elliott Basics;
Elliott Level 2;
Wyckoff;
Wyckoff chart basics;
Basics 2;
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another topic worth mentioning is COT (Commitment of Traders) a report issued once a week on the large money moves, in simple terms.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I know there is a lot here in one post - but I hope it helps going through the basics like this and you can save for reference. This was mainly due to all of these posts being over several pages in my profile. This way it's all accessible.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.