USDCAD 4HR - Head & Shoulders & Falling Channel on the RadarIn this video we're looking at a structure based trading opportunity on the USDCAD using a few classic reversal patterns.
Patterns
Trade what you see, not what you hear.In this video I look over a few indices and the VIX.
There is a problem i.e. the news is saying one thing, but the charts are showing something rather different. I look at some trendlines, channels and patterns. After many years in trading I'm no longer obsessed with the names of various patterns. The overall pattern is what interests me more.
The news is about short term reporting. Rarely do popular news reports analyse trends in a robust way. Today I looked at some overview video report on the indices, from a reputable brokerage site. Not surprisingly the commentator was going on about MACD, RSI, Stochastics and support lines. There were other things considered like non-farm payrolls and jobs reports in the US. But even when going over the charts, he missed the obvious channels and other features heading south. This is the danger of listening to these broadcasts. You are at the mercy of the reporter who only has a limited time to assess the markets. Additionally all reporters hold their individual unconscious biases and blind spots.
' Am I biased in this video? ', I'm asking myself. I probably am. But all I know is that I'm seeing certain patterns that everybody else can see. The patterns are relevant to obvious trends, as they present themselves at this time. Note I said 'at this time' because the picture can always change.
This post and video is predictive of nothing. I don't do predictions and likewise I set no targets. I simply follow trends and exploit patterns where I see them. When I enter a trade, the stop-loss truly means that I've lost that money. Although I don't gamble, by analogy when one goes to a casino and puts the chips on the table one knows that is the loss. So that's how I approach the loss in my stop-losses.
As 'the man' once said, " Trade what you see ". I'll also add, "Don't trade what you hear ." (namely the news, blogs and gurus aplenty).
The examples shown in the video is not a recommendation or encouragement to trade. Your losses are your own if you enter a trade based on any position shown.
The Big Question - where is price going?In this video I share my experience on the Big Question in the minds of lots of traders. This is not particularly about GBPJPY. I use the 15 min time frame only as an example.
I point out that candlestick charts can be deceptive in giving an idea about price, that may be erroneous. It is natural especially for new traders to see a number of unfavourable candles and think that 'price is going down'. This is human nature. When we see short term patterns we tend to believe that they mean something.
I show a bit on how I use my indicators to assess probabilities. I also change my perspective into higher time frames. The trends on higher time frames in general tend to overrule what happens on lower time frames (but not always obviously).
My answer to the Big Question, is that price is probably going in the direction of the bigger trends. In other words it is pretty useless narrowing focus on one part of a chart. The trend is your friend in determining probabilities. Find your true friend and stick with your friend, is what I always say.
