Is Bitcoin going to every die - probably not. In this video, I review some evidence available to everybody. I spot some behaviour patterns of Bitcoin over the years.
The evidence to date is that it refuses to die - at each stage when people shouted "Crash!" or "Tulip!".
I'm not saying that Bitcoin will not die. That's none of my business as a trader. My business is to assess evidence, see patterns and decide on probabilities.
I'm inviting all to look at the same evidence. Are we all seeing the same thing? Are we seeing broadly the pattern of fall back followed by shocking recovery?
Patterns
End of day action on EURUSD and US30In this video I look at an interesting compression on the 15 min EURUSD and quickly review a critical price position on the US30.
This follows up from my other videos.
A strong EURO is not great for the Ger30, so if it strengthens around now, there could be more bearish pressure on the DAX.
The DAX tends to rule the worlds markets and has not suffered as serious corrections as the US30, as yet.
I'm not saying I'm right about any of these positions and how I assess them. The important things I think is to share thoughts and learn from others. I'm always happy to learn a different way, see a different perspective, and to stand corrected if I've made glaring errors.
Best wishes
Walker.
Wall street update: Decision timeWall street and many other stock indices are at critical positions.
In this video I drill into the action today, from the monthly down into the 5 min time frame, approaching end of the day's session.
The GER30 is in a critical position and fighting hard to stay afloat. It rules the world.
In general the GER30 does not like a strong EURUSD. And the US30 does not like a weak USDollar. And we're seeing some downside movement on the USDollar basket and upside on the EURUSD. This is good for neither side of the Atlantic. If this keeps up it will add to bearish pressure.
Trade what you see, not what you hear.In this video I look over a few indices and the VIX.
There is a problem i.e. the news is saying one thing, but the charts are showing something rather different. I look at some trendlines, channels and patterns. After many years in trading I'm no longer obsessed with the names of various patterns. The overall pattern is what interests me more.
The news is about short term reporting. Rarely do popular news reports analyse trends in a robust way. Today I looked at some overview video report on the indices, from a reputable brokerage site. Not surprisingly the commentator was going on about MACD, RSI, Stochastics and support lines. There were other things considered like non-farm payrolls and jobs reports in the US. But even when going over the charts, he missed the obvious channels and other features heading south. This is the danger of listening to these broadcasts. You are at the mercy of the reporter who only has a limited time to assess the markets. Additionally all reporters hold their individual unconscious biases and blind spots.
' Am I biased in this video? ', I'm asking myself. I probably am. But all I know is that I'm seeing certain patterns that everybody else can see. The patterns are relevant to obvious trends, as they present themselves at this time. Note I said 'at this time' because the picture can always change.
This post and video is predictive of nothing. I don't do predictions and likewise I set no targets. I simply follow trends and exploit patterns where I see them. When I enter a trade, the stop-loss truly means that I've lost that money. Although I don't gamble, by analogy when one goes to a casino and puts the chips on the table one knows that is the loss. So that's how I approach the loss in my stop-losses.
As 'the man' once said, " Trade what you see ". I'll also add, "Don't trade what you hear ." (namely the news, blogs and gurus aplenty).
The examples shown in the video is not a recommendation or encouragement to trade. Your losses are your own if you enter a trade based on any position shown.
The Big Question - where is price going?In this video I share my experience on the Big Question in the minds of lots of traders. This is not particularly about GBPJPY. I use the 15 min time frame only as an example.
I point out that candlestick charts can be deceptive in giving an idea about price, that may be erroneous. It is natural especially for new traders to see a number of unfavourable candles and think that 'price is going down'. This is human nature. When we see short term patterns we tend to believe that they mean something.
I show a bit on how I use my indicators to assess probabilities. I also change my perspective into higher time frames. The trends on higher time frames in general tend to overrule what happens on lower time frames (but not always obviously).
My answer to the Big Question, is that price is probably going in the direction of the bigger trends. In other words it is pretty useless narrowing focus on one part of a chart. The trend is your friend in determining probabilities. Find your true friend and stick with your friend, is what I always say.