A look at the economy of the Soviet UnionIt was 98 years that communists randomly drew the borders between Armenia & Azerbaijan (and Georgia and Turkey). And it's still a mess to this day. WW3 soon.
Great time to take a look at the economy of the soviet union. This is a vast subject so I will only cover a tiny fraction of what can be said about it, but I will try to basically cover the general idea.
I will start by a little intro about the early communists/socialists. Not the revolution itself but how it got started after the revolution.
Fun fact: All the early communists that participated in the treaty got executed a few years later by Stalin, just like every single early bolshevik or socialist.
I can't help but laugh, every socialist revolution even thousands of years ago the early ones really think they have a bright future and all end up getting killed.
Yakov Ganetsky the soviet russian ambassador at the time was a famous communist financeer (hey just like George Soros), of course saying he was secrectly financing a socialist revolution was a crazy conspiracy theory until it happened. What is it with these financial people and wishing to dominate entire populations? A crazy conspiracy theory about George Soros: HE SAID, I have it on video, he said that he saw himself as a sort of divine person that had a special mission, a prophet that had to control the world.
So anyway this Yakov that was a financeer of a certain ethnicity which is probably why the subject is avoided by the west so much, got arrested by Stalin in 1937 after the commie police raided his appartement and found communist books that were "not real socialism" (the previous kind of socialism that failed) LOL! So after this he got tortured to confess he was a spy for Germany and Poland because why not, and then after a fair trial that lasted 15 minutes he was sentenced to death and shot the day of his trial. Can't see he didn't have it coming. If he had better predictive abilities than a potato he'd have lived. His wife and son also got shot to death because why not.
Askanaz Mravyan was a soviet armenian minister of foreign affairs that participated in this treaty and I cannot find how he died but he died at 43 in the soviet union while holding some political position.
Basically most to every early communist was killed and every single jewish communist from 1915-1920 got killed by papa Stalin. Then in the 1950s Stalin got paranoid about the jews again and he got poisonned probably by the serial rapist called Beriah, and oh no he put all the jewish doctors aka all the doctors in prison and there was no one around to help him. Karma. Talking about Karma Stalin during his life had bad events happen to him over and over again. The most famous one is when he wife that couldn't stand him just killed herself to make him suffer :)
The most famous revolutionary that got executed story is probably Trotsky, that delusional guy fled to Mexico right? Literally the opposite side of earth.
He criticized Stalin saying Stalin was "not real socialism" and Stalin wrote him out of history books and wanted him dead because Trotskism was "not real socialism".
In a villa with bodyguards etc. He survived 1 raid in 1939 or 1940 whatever I'm just writting this as I go, and then weeks or months later he got attacked again.
And he took an axe to the face. Trostky bodyguards tried beating the assassin to death but he stopped them to look like a good caring person. And then Trotsky slowly died with horrible pain. The murderer got a medla of honor, a few years of jail, and then lived a long and happy life.
I don't know how much of history can be trusted but documents, physical proof, that does not contradict each other, that can be trusted.
Some people did the research and every single name on the communist list got slaughtered.
Every socialist co-conspirator that betrayed and killed Caesar a few months after he limited welfare programs was cut to pieces.
Don't tell me it's a coincidence Caesar that had big support got killed just after reducing the amount of romans on welfare by half.
Just got started on this intro and this is already long. I told you it was impossible to make a full idea.
I am simply going to quote a few numbers about soviet production, the 1920s numbers come from marxists dot org & official soviet numbers, the ones from the second half of the century mostly come from declassified CIA documents.
www.theodora.com
Muh education! If I just find the right mentor I'll be a great profitable trader. Haha. "Education".
So to sum up it sort of always follows the same pattern...
The only countries that really try socialism are countries where money can fall from the sky, countries with natural ressources to sell to others so they can import. They crumble and slowly die over decades. The soviet union lasted 70 years. These guys have huge NatGas & Oil reserves and infinite forests.
Extremely dumb people want socialism in countries where the natural ressource is the population. There are no giant ressources to extract. Socialism there can't last decades. It can last maybe a few weeks. And then you run out of stuff & other people's money (if they had foreign currencies or gold otherwise it will last a few days the time it takes for the country currency to go to zero). Haha.
Venezuela has alot of Oil but it's expensive to extract and didn't work great for them.
Videos of people in Zimbabwe & Venezuela going into euphoria a few years ago are easy to find.
They're not smiling today thought 😬
Oh and today USA & UK socialists are against deforestation. And they are against extracting Oil & Natural Gas. 🙃 It's just beyond...
And 70% of US millenials can't find France or the UK on a map. 11% can't even FIND THE USA!
50% have a positive view of socialism. 20% of young New Yorker think jews perpetrated the holocaust.
There is no word to explain how unbelievably stupid they are.
My imagination itself is not powerful enough to come up with how there can be such immense stupidity to come to those idiotic conclusions.
When I was growing up it did not feel "normal" and I suspected something was wrong. Plebes were getting way dumber at an exponential rate. I was right.
If I keep hitting my head against a wall will I wake up from this dream?
Z-VALUE
Best investors of our timeHere are the best. Under 10 years it's too luck based, and even up to 20 years. So all the people on the list will always be old.
Warren Buffet & Jesse Livermore started investing full time in their teens (Warren started at 8 but the track record starts later maybe late teens or twenties, Jesse started at 14 I began the track record estimate at 16), George Soros started in his 30s, Jim Simons started in his 40s and his monstruous medallion fund was launched on his 50th year.
For Jesse Livermore I looked at Dow Jones dividends reinvested returns from 1893 to 1930 which were about 11%, and he managed to grow to 10k in 1893, made 100 million in 1929 (so he had 100,000k + x) so he made at the very least 30% a year... Why I placed him at 18-19% over the stock market returns, but it is possible he made more than this. In any case he got better results than Soros.
Special mention: Carl Ihcan got returns of 26% from 1968 to 2011 versus Buffet 20% (or at least that's the book value of Berkshire), while the S&P with dividends reinvested over that period produced 9.5% so Buffet overperformed by a little over 10% and Ihcan by 16% putting him above Warren Buffet (but for less long) and close to Jesse Livermore & George Soros. But since then Ihcan has done terribly, so Warren Buffet is still numero uno.
Jim Simons secretive medallion fund made 66% a year over 30 years so that's an overperformance of pretty much 55%.
This is not where all his money is, and the fund is capped so there won't be growth futher (for medallion fund, but overall he'll still make lots of money via medaillion flat gains & his other funds).
The overrall perf is so off the charts anyway that in any case he is clearly number 1.
In the game we got:
- An overwhelming majority of sheep shadowing the stock market and making sure they perform same as the rest of the herd every quarter
- Alot of fundamental investors (including short sellers like Jim Chanos I guess)
- A couple of value investors
- A handful of speculators (why bother if you can't beat the stock market anyway? Investors that speculate on the side to reduce portfolio volatility not included)
- A herd of retail traders that look at oversold indicators, fight obvious trends, and think they'll beat Livermore that could read & write at 3 years old
- 1 secretive mathematician/geometrist/pattern recognition master (wink wink) that finds patterns in enormous amounts of data
- Hundreds of day trading educators that claim they can massively outperform a one in 100 million genius that gets his edge from seeing things others cannot
FACEBOOK Intrinsic Value ExampleHere I will show you a method to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock. It is based in the idea of how much money can you squeeze out of a company in the future and bringing that amount to present value.
The first step is to find a company which is stable, that has a somewhat linear stable growth rate.
It is preferred that the debt to equity to be less than 0.5 and current ratio to be more than 1.5.
NASDAQ:FB
2 Minutes Video Tutorial: easyupload. io/to2cyd
Excel File: easyupload. io/uby6z4
BITCOIN: Question of the month - does it have any value?People certainly think that Bitcoin has value! How do I know? Because there is incontrovertible evidence that in recent days people have gone greedy for it. However there is expert opinion (which shall remain nameless) that Bitcoin is NOTHING and has no value at all. I'm really amused by this opinion because it flies in the face of evidence.
The chart shown in this screencast is the evidence of BTCUSD running a very hot RSI again! Billions have been spent buying this thing that is called 'nothing' by the good and great.
Arguments for Bitcoin being ' nothing ' is that it is ' thin air '. Oops that must mean that when I transfer fiat money wirelessly I'm transferring 'nothing' too - cuz I certainly do not transfer metal or paper money when I use my credit or debit card.
A few months ago I even showed that it is now possible to transfer solid Gold electronically - which now makes Gold to be 'thin air' - if this so-called expert out there (nobody on Tradingview) is correct.
What many a guru out there fails to understand is that the value of anything is what people are willing to attach to it. But some people then argue that a) BTC is nothing and b) it has no intrinsic value . Of course most of the people who chunter about 'intrinsic value' cannot define what they mean. All value is represented by how much people are willing to exchange for some 'thing'. The 'thing' certainly does not need to be physically tangible in the hand. Why? How? Because most (fiat) money in the world is not held in the hands - these days.
A measure of value is also how much effort, labour or service one may be willing to exchange to acquire 'the thing'. There was a time when money did not exist. That did not mean that nothing on earth had value! Way back then, value in physical form may have been represented in food items e.g. sacks of potatoes, livestock, water etc. So - if you lived back in that time, you might be willing to exchange so many hours of work for potatoes. You might then trade your potatoes for something else you wanted to acquire from somebody else.
Even stocks/shares are 'thin air'. The piece of paper stating your ownership is only proof of promise and a record. To trade the stock you gotta do that via a broker etc - and that activity is electronic, in the vast majority of cases.
'Value' and some 'things' exist only in the mind. BTC is the result of a mathematical equation and its value exists as 'thin air' in the minds of people - as does all value.
Today Bitcoin is a vehicle of value for something. It doesn't matter if it is made out of thin air.
RV Simplifed - Krümel’s VoodooRV Simplified:
I get this question all the time, and even though the concept is simple, many people have a hard time getting their heads around it.
Here is snapshot of above at time of publish. Sept 19, 2018, 7:30am ET.
As the above LIVE chart will not last more than a day.. accurately.
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Q- When DXY falls, WTI follows right?
A- No.. they fall and rise at different rates, on some Timeframes they will be inverted (say 10min) while on 4hr they will both trend in same direction.
I look at the value of oil in Dollar , as well as other currencies. But oil is priced in dollars.. so it will always gravitate to that level. This is based on the amount of volumes being traded in other currencies. (I believe) .
Q- So having a weaker pound, yen and eur will equate to oil price going up as we get more dollars? right?
A- Sure.. and vice verse..
Let’s say nobody trades oil for 1 hr. But during that time the Doller dropped by 10%! Those wanting to buy oil from you in EUR, would need to pay 10% more to keep you even, or you would need to sell at 10% loss. BUT -If I’m buying from you and in dollar. Price doesn’t change as we are both using dollars. - Extreme example.
So the price of oil is based on what buyer is willing to pay.. if those in U.K. (above example) are willing to pay the 10%, but most of the buyers are in US. The price will only go up buy the amount of volume those U.K. buyers represent.
Now do that for EUR, YEN, GBP, and Doller.. that’s RV!
Lastly - I treat SPX like a currency (normalized to dollar) SPX is a great scale on daily movement. Not always coupled but use 2 day range to set scale. I think this has to do with the ETFs and truly they are the volume in PaperOil.