The first 30% of this bull run has been dominated by the BTC and ETF narrative. A massive FOMO, unprecedented, has propelled BTC beyond its all-time high (ATH) even before the halving. However, when retail investors began purchasing at prices above 70k, smart money decided to take profits, leading us into a downtrend for BTC.
We are now witnessing the end of the ETF-induced FOMO for Bitcoin and a return to a fundamentally stronger bull run.
Adjusted for inflation, we are actually only 30% into the bull run cycle, just after the halving and before the parabolic move of BTC. This retracement might go lower, as the expectations for the ETF were so high that the retracement could be quite substantial.
Is it time to sell all your BTC and wait with cash for the bottom? Some might do that, but there is a risk: missing the recovery. Everyone has to sleep, and this can happen in hours.
Some smarter investors have noticed that the altcoin market has basically been stagnant, with a 100% increase while BTC was soaring by 300%, and has been largely ignored because the focus was all on BTC and the unrealistic ETF expectations.
These smart investors are seizing the opportunity to buy great projects at bargain prices and are poised to make substantial profits. Money is moving from BTC to altcoins, and I believe this trend will continue, since BTC lacks a compelling narrative.
While BTC is resetting and gearing up for the final parabolic move, altcoins will become very attractive, and smart money will invest in solid projects, memes, and everything else that has been overlooked.
I predict we will have two altcoin seasons, one starting now while BTC is resetting, and another after BTC reaches its peak and begins to fall into a bear market.
Investing in solid and low-risk altcoins like PEPE, BBONK, SOL, AVAX, IINJ, OP, SUI, RRUNE, etc., should be more rewarding than buying BTC in the next two months.
This is not investment advice, merely an opinion. Do your own research (DYOR), and remember that anything can happen in the highly volatile crypto market.
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Things are going in the right direction since I have posted. Altcoins are growing more than BTC and this going to continue for a while. I hope that you enjoy the ride, chose your alts carefully, not all are good!
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Continuation upward, the more BTC lateralize the more the alts will grow. Choose your alts carefully tho, not all with pump.
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Still in the golden pocket area, waiting for a breakout if we go over 0.382 we might see a little alt season. Patience.
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The Total2 market is still maintaining strong at the same level, but no bullish wave. The reason are the "to the moon, new ATH" narrative and the renewed interest into the ETH ETF. Altseason will have to wait more.
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Again, this idea was perfectly accurate, and everything is moving according to plan. Follow me.
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Sitting above the 0.236 fib is a good result. The target is 1.25T which is the ATH, it is possible. Soon will happen and most altcoins will recover and do double digit pump. It is not if but it is when. Patience is key. It will happen
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The whole altcoin market has been shacked by a BTC drop and a some bad news about the US market earnings. Apparently it generated a panic sell from the institutions taking out their profits early before the week end. This is temporary. However most alts experienced a -5%+ loss in the process.
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We are having a serious pull back that is resulting into a lot of altcoin bleeding. This is close to be a bottom, the RSI is at the bottom, the MACD on 1H is recovering, we should see more money coming back to alts soon.
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Total2 is dumping back to the support. We should have a bounce from here and altcoins will get all their loss back. Shit altcoins will lag, good ones will do all time high. Time to keep the good one, and send the bad ones to hashes.
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After this BTC correction, we are now bouncing on the support zone. This idea is still valid, we are going higher. MACD has reset and showing an impeding signal cross, RSI has bottomed and is on the rise. All bullish for Altcoin again. Here is an updated chart with all the new data
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Total2 is recovering and heading in the right direction... It bounced from the support box as planned and now is heading to 1T market cap!
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I mean 1.2T MC of course.
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As a rule, remember that BTC always dumps less than altcoins. So when MT.Gox sells their 190k BTC, whales know that BTC will drop by -5% to -10%, but altcoins will drop by -30%. Bitcoin dominance grows because people either sell and keep their funds in USDT (causing USDT dominance to grow) or move their funds into BTC to avoid the painful altcoin drop.
However, when the market recovers, altcoins can gain +30% or more, which is when investors buy back their altcoins at a low price and make more profits. During the recovery, USDT and BTC dominance decrease.
This phenomenon exacerbates the altcoin dump, making it harder to endure. But knowing this, investors should not be worried about a sudden drop in total market capitalization, as it is temporary and just a normal money fluctuation.
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Last dump from MT.Gox today, they just sent $3.5 B worth of BTC to Bitstamp. After this storm, things will look better and I think that the altcoins will recover.
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Update about the Altcoin/BTC dominance. Here is an updated chart. The original chart is still valid. 0.6 fib is acting as support. We have have a daily MACD bearish which means that we should not have a bounce before 4-7 days. However once the MACD will cross again, we can expect a nice altcoin bounce until the end of August. Hold on tight!
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It is sad to see all these great projects (IINJ, FFLOKI, VET, ETH, SUI, RRUNE, etc.) being hammered because rich people are derisking their assets. However, we are at a solid support level, and we should bounce back from this. FUD is temporary. The 900B support has been our savior several times and should save us again!
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In the past 2 weeks TOTAL2 has lost +250 Billions in capitalization.
However, the FED lowering their interest rates, and the money printing will resume, so in consequence, I think that we reached the bottom.
Money will flow back to the altcoins soon.
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Nice green candle, hopefully TOTAL3 touched the bottom at 800B and we will now see a slow recovery for the altcoins.
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This is an old idea, I will publish a new one soon.
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