Get started

Centered Oscillators

Decoding Money Flow within Markets to Anticipate Price DirectionI. Introduction In the intricate world of financial markets, understanding the flow of capital between different assets is paramount for traders and investors aiming to anticipate price movements. Money doesn't move haphazardly; it often follows patterns and trends influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and inter-market relationships. This article delves into the concept of money flow between markets, specifically analyzing how volume movements in one market can influence price directions in another. Our focus centers on two pivotal markets: the 10-Year T-Note Futures (ZN1!) and the Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!). Additionally, we'll touch upon other significant markets such as ES1! (E-mini S&P 500 Futures), GC1! (Gold Futures), 6E1! (Euro FX Futures), BTC1! (Bitcoin Futures), and ZC1! (Corn Futures) to provide a comprehensive view. By employing the Granger Causality test—a statistical method used to determine if one time series can predict another—we aim to unravel the nuanced relationships between these markets. Through this exploration, we aspire to equip readers with insights and methodologies that can enhance their trading strategies, particularly in anticipating price directions based on volume dynamics. II. Understanding Granger Causality Granger Causality is a powerful statistical tool used to determine whether one time series can predict another. While it doesn't establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship in the strictest sense, it helps identify if past values of one variable contain information that can predict future values of another. In the context of financial markets, this can be invaluable for traders seeking to understand how movements in one market might influence another. Pros and Cons: Predictive Power: It provides a systematic way to determine if one market’s past behavior can forecast another’s, helping traders anticipate potential market movements. Quantitative Analysis: Offers a statistical basis for analyzing market relationships, reducing reliance on subjective judgment. Lag Dependency: The test is dependent on the chosen lag length, which may not capture all relevant dynamics between the series. Not True Causality: Granger Causality only suggests a predictive relationship, not a true cause-and-effect mechanism. III. Understanding Money Flow via Granger Causality The data used for this analysis consists of daily volume figures for each of the seven markets described above, spanning from January 1, 2018, to the present. While the below heatmap presents results for different lags, we will focus on a lag of 2 days as we aim to capture the short-term predictive relationships that exist between these markets. Key Findings The results of the Granger Causality test are presented in the form of a heatmap. This visual representation provides a clear, at-a-glance understanding of which markets have predictive power over others. Each cell in the matrix represents the p-value of the Granger Causality test between a "Cause" market (row) and an "Effect" market (column). Lower p-values (darker cell) indicate a stronger statistical relationship, suggesting that the volume in the "Cause" market can predict movements in the "Effect" market. Key Observations related to ZN1! (10-Year T-Note Futures): The heatmap shows significant Granger-causal relationships between ZN1! volume and the volumes of several other markets, particularly CL1! (Light Crude Oil Futures), where the p-value is 0, indicating a very strong predictive relationship. This suggests that an increase in volume in ZN1! can reliably predict subsequent volume changes in CL1!, which aligns with our goal of identifying capital flow from ZN1! to CL1! In this case. IV. Trading Methodology With the insights gained from the Granger Causality test, we can develop a trading methodology to anticipate price movements in CL1! based on volume patterns observed in ZN1!. Further Volume Analysis with CCI and VWAP 1. Commodity Channel Index (CCI): CCI is a versatile technical indicator that when applied to volume, measures the volume deviation from its average over a specific period. In this methodology, we use the CCI to identify when ZN1! is experiencing excess volume. Identifying Excess Volume: The CCI value for ZN1! above +100 suggests there is an excess of buying volume. Conversely, when CL1!’s CCI is below +100 while ZN1! is above +100, it implies that the volume from ZN1! has not yet transferred to CL1!, potentially signaling an upcoming volume influx into CL1!. 2. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The VWAP represents the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price. Predicting Price Direction: If Today’s VWAP is Above Yesterday’s VWAP: This scenario indicates that the market's average trading price is increasing, suggesting bullish sentiment. In this case, if ZN1! shows excess volume (CCI above +100), we would expect CL1! to make a higher high tomorrow. If Today’s VWAP is Below Yesterday’s VWAP: This scenario suggests bearish sentiment, with the average trading price declining. Here, if ZN1! shows excess volume, we would expect CL1! to make a lower low tomorrow. Application of the Methodology: Step 1: Identify Excess Volume in ZN1!: Using the CCI, determine if ZN1! is above +100. Step 2: Assess CL1! Volume: Check if CL1! is below +100 on the CCI. Step 3: Use VWAP to Confirm Direction: Compare today’s VWAP to yesterday’s. If it’s higher, prepare for a higher high in CL1!; if it’s lower, prepare for a lower low. This methodology combines statistical insights from the Granger Causality test with technical indicators to create a structured approach to trading. V. Case Studies: Identifying Excess Volume and Anticipating Price Direction Case Study 1: May 23, 2024 Scenario: ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +265.11 CL1!: CCI was at +12.84. VWAP: Below the prior day’s VWAP. Outcome: A lower low was made. Case Study 2: June 28, 2024 Charts for this case study are at the top of the article. Scenario: ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +175.12 CL1!: CCI was at -90.23. VWAP: Above the prior day’s VWAP. Outcome: A higher high was made. Case Study 3: July 11, 2024 Scenario: ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +133.39 CL1!: CCI was at +0.23. VWAP: Above the prior day’s VWAP. Outcome: A higher high was made. These case studies underscore the practical application of the trading methodology in real market scenarios. VI. Conclusion The exploration of money flow between markets provides valuable insights into how capital shifts can influence price movements across different asset classes. The trading methodology developed around this relationship, utilizing the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) to measure excess volume and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) to confirm price direction, offers a systematic approach to capitalizing on these inter-market dynamics. Through the case studies, we demonstrated the practical application of this methodology, showing how traders can anticipate higher highs or lower lows in CL1! based on volume conditions observed in ZN1!. Key Takeaways: Granger Causality: This test is an effective tool for uncovering predictive relationships between markets, allowing traders to identify where capital might flow next. CCI and VWAP: These indicators, when used together, provide a robust framework for interpreting volume data and predicting subsequent price movements. Limitations and Considerations: While Granger Causality can reveal important inter-market relationships, it is not without its limitations. The test's accuracy depends on the chosen lag lengths and the stationarity of the data. Additionally, the CCI and VWAP indicators, while powerful, are not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other analysis tools. Traders should remain mindful of the broader market context, including economic events and geopolitical factors, which can influence market behavior in ways that statistical models may not fully capture. Additionally, effective risk management practices are crucial, as they help mitigate potential losses that may arise from unexpected market movements or the limitations of any predictive models. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
A cyclical historyWe have all heard that the economy works in cycles, and so does the market. But what does this truly mean? Has anyone actually been able to show you where you can see these cycles occur? Well, here is a great graph that will show you how. By looking at the 6-month time frame, the percentages of stocks above the 20 daily MA, you are achieving 2 things. Seeing price action at the timeframe used to declare technical recessions Seeing the percentage of stocks in a short term uptrend or downtrend as the complement is also true Here it's quite easy to see how an important world event unfolded with a clear, repeatable pattern. When the percentage oscillates heavily, it allows for many technical resets, causing a healthy uptrend when the percentage returns to above 50% by the end of the semester. Another patter is that after a period of over-performance, a period of under-performance is followed and vice versa. When looking at world events, just remember at the end of the day we are all a number in a larger scheme. And the laws of statistics will end up controlling our outcomes, as there must be balance in all binomial systems. Even when biases can be present in distributions, the more we generalize and zoom out, the more we can see the statistical convergences in human behavior. At the end of the day, our lives are influenced by fractals, some of which we are not even aware exist.
MEducation
by DarkMessiah777
Is the mexican index in danger?Even with great companies conforming this index, it's impossible to ignore the effect that Claudia Sheinbaum's victory had over the markets. It's shocking to see the pessimism of the markets after her victory. Unfortunately, this has now created an infliction point in the BMV:ME index. With no recent clear support, it could be possible for price to drop quite a bit more, opening great buying opportunities. However, if price does not begin to reverse this trend soon, it's possible that we will test lower lows.
BMV:MEEducation
by DarkMessiah777
Will BTC repeat its history?When prices begin to range away from the mean when dealing with up trending movements, power is lost in many indicators. When this happens, it usually means that price is currently in a bubble. In contrast to a ticker like the SP:SPX price usually doesn't behave in this manner. It's actually quite easy to understand why this is the case. If one was to make Monte Carlo simulations using a geometric Brownian motion, you would see some processes behave in a manner of a bubble. But if we take the aggregate of all movements and average them, or calculate a present value, the value tends to be around the center. Well an index does quite the same but through different methods. By aggregating important tickers, they form an average based on different criteria, therefore are more susceptible to following the central limit theorem. Meanwhile, individual stocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies are more susceptible to violent movements which completely ignore technical indicators. This has led me to believe that the more a ticker is dependent on external factors the more it will follow traditional statistical and probabilistic methods. I have no proof for this claim, It's just what I believe based on experience. When looking at central metric indicators, it's important to conciser there are two point in which these become unreliable. When price action completely ignores your distribution, such as it does here. And when the price is consolidating in the mean. When prices consolidates in the mean, it can be seen as a reset or as a very serious sign something is wrong. However, when minimums become unreliable then that is when one should really be scared, because that means something is seriously wrong. I will look for examples of this for you in the future. When prices behave in this manner, I don't feel confident making predictions because when a ticker is more susceptible to speculation then price action behaves erratically and patterns become harder to find.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by DarkMessiah777
Finding a section to start tradingHello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- The BW indicator included in the TS - BW indicator is an indicator expressed by synthesizing the MACD, StochRSI, CCI, PVT, and superTrend indicators. When the BW indicator - records a high point, it is time to sell, and - When it records a low point, it is time to buy. The BW indicator in the price candle section is the same as the BW indicator included in the TS - BW indicator, but it is an indicator that is expressed in the price candle when a horizontal line is formed at the highest or lowest point. If you look at the position of the BW indicator expressed in the price candle section, you can know when to proceed with a trade. I think you can be confident about starting a trade by referring to the status of the MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1D, 1W, 1M charts) indicator that can confirm the trend. If you add the HA-Low, HA-High indicators here, you can create a more detailed trading strategy. Have a good time. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture It is expected that a full-scale uptrend will start when it rises above 29K. The section that is expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting) 4th: 13401.28 151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future. We need to check if these points can be broken upward. We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section. #BTCUSD 1M If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -----------------
Education
by readCrypto
1
How to read mean returns (Expand the indicator)Mean returns is a trend detection and overextension indicator. It oscillates around the value of 0. The mean return line in reality is the orange one as well as the blue one. The difference is in the number of data points into the past that they consider. Since the value of those lines is the expected value of the returns in period t, then if it's over 0 the expectation is that returns will be positive, as previously the price has been trending higher. The opposite being true as well. Meanwhile, the red and green line represent the expected upwards and expected downwards returns. That means you only take the expected value for the days in which the return was positive or negative accordingly. Therefore, if the mean returns are over the expected upwards returns the price is likely to be overextended, and vice versa. Other adjustments were made to consider the current candle. This code will remain private, as it took a lot of effort to invent. I hope you are able to understand the math. If you can't, I hope this at least allowed you to read the meaning of the indicator through this.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by DarkMessiah777
1
Past Indications of uptrend health in the SPXEven when all empires fall, It's important to remember that as long as humanity in general continues to discover, explore, solve and invent, the better off we all are. That's why the price of indices always tend to go up. Even when they become stagnant, they eventually keep on increasing. The only thing that can revert this is a total collapse of society, which is unlikely in the present moment. Nevertheless, it's also important to observe the health of a trend. When price increases violently, then a correction is likely to occur. These corrections can be severe or simple technical resets. Technical resets are good for everyone as it allows new buyers to enter the market as well as provide good buying opportunities. However, circumstances can lead the price to not have reset but instead have a correction or a crash. The difference between the two is that a correction is slow to reach the bottom, while a crash is a sudden move downward. As one can see here leading up to the 2000 dot com crisis the uptrend was quite healthy, and it did a slight reset before going into euphoria, where price goes into the 3rd standard deviation range while pushing price higher and higher, before price lost momentum and eventually had a correction as the uptrend was way too aggressive. Meanwhile, leading up to 2008 crash there is a very aggressive uptrend, completely breaking into higher level deviations without going through the stages of a healthy uptrend. Causing the price to crash once the market realized that the system was still heavily corrupted by greed. However, since things throughout time do improve, this allowed for another aggressive uptrend to form which instead of running into a crash it went into a technical reset which latter became the longest bull market in USA history.
Editors' picks
SP:SPXEducation
by DarkMessiah777
31
Navigating Interest Rates with Micro Yield Futures Pair TradingIntroduction to Yield Futures In the complex world of financial markets, Treasury Yield Futures offer investors a pathway to be exposed to changes in U.S. treasury yields. Among these instruments, the Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures stand out due to their granularity and accessibility. These futures contracts reflect the market's expectations for the yields of U.S. Treasury securities with corresponding maturities. Micro 10-Year Yield Futures allow traders to express views on the longer end of the yield curve, typically influenced by factors like economic growth expectations and inflation. Conversely, Micro 2-Year Yield Futures are more sensitive to changes in the federal funds rate, making them a ideal for short-term interest rate movements. Why Pair Trading? Pair trading is a market-neutral strategy that involves taking offsetting positions in two closely related securities. This approach aims to capitalize on the relative price movements between the two assets, focusing on their correlation and co-integration rather than their individual price paths. In the context of Micro Treasury Yield Futures, pair trading between the 10-Year and 2-Year contracts offers a strategic advantage by exploiting the yield curve dynamics. By simultaneously going long on Micro 10-Year Yield Futures and short on Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (or vice versa), traders can hedge against general interest rate movements while potentially profiting from changes in the yield spread between these maturities. Analyzing the Current Market Conditions Understanding the current market conditions is pivotal for executing a successful pair trading strategy with Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures. Currently, the interest rate environment is influenced by a complex interplay of economic recovery signals, inflation expectations, and central bank policies. Central Bank Policies: The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates directly affects the yield of U.S. Treasury securities. For instance, a hawkish outlook, suggesting rate hikes, can cause short-term yields to increase rapidly. Long-term yields might also rise but could be tempered by long-term inflation control measures. Strategic Approach to Pair Trading These Futures Trade Execution and Monitoring To effectively implement a pair trading strategy with Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures, traders must have a solid plan for identifying entry and exit points, managing the positions, and understanding the mechanics of yield spreads. Here’s a step-by-step approach: 1. Identifying the Trade Setup Mean Reversion Concept: In this strategy, we utilize the concept of mean reversion, which suggests that the yield spread will revert to its historical average over time. To quantify the mean, we employ a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the spread between the Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures. This moving average serves as a benchmark to determine when the spread is significantly deviating from its typical range. Signal Identification using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI): To further refine our entry and exit signals, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is employed. The CCI helps in identifying cyclical turns in the spread. This indicator is particularly useful for determining when the spread has reached a condition that is statistically overbought or oversold. 2. Trade Execution: Going Long on One and Short on the Other: Depending on your analysis, you might go long on the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures if you anticipate the long-term rates will increase more relative to the short-term rates, or vice versa. Position Sizing: Determine the size of each position based on the volatility of the yield spreads and your risk tolerance. It's crucial to balance the positions to ensure that the trade remains market-neutral. Regular Review and adjustments: Regularly review the economic indicators and Fed announcements that could affect interest rates. Keep an eye on the spread for any signs that it might be moving back towards its mean or breaking out in a new trend. Contract Specifications To further refine our strategy, understanding the specific contract details of Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures is crucial: Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (Symbol: 10Y1!) and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (Symbol: 2YY1!): Tick Value: Each tick (0.001) of movement is worth $1 per contract. Trading Hours: Sunday to Friday, 6:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. (New York time) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 5:00 p.m. Initial Margin: Approximately $350 per contract, subject to change based on market volatility. Pair Margin Efficiency When trading Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures as a pair, traders can leverage margin efficiencies from reduced portfolio risk. These efficiencies lower the required capital and mitigate volatility impacts. The two charts below illustrate the volatility contrast: the Daily ATR of the yield spread is 0.033, significantly lower than the 0.082 ATR of the Micro 10-Year alone, nearly three times higher. This lower spread volatility underlines a core advantage of pair trading—reduced market exposure and potentially smoother, more predictable returns. Risk Management in Pair Trading Micro Yield Futures Effective risk management is the cornerstone of any successful trading strategy, especially in pair trading where the goal is to mitigate market risks through balancing positions. Here are key risk management techniques that should be considered when pair trading Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures: 1. Setting Stop-Loss Orders: Pre-determined Levels: Establish stop-loss levels at the outset of the trade based on historical volatility, maximum acceptable loss, and the distance from your entry point. This helps in limiting potential losses if the market moves unfavorably. Trailing Stops: Consider using trailing stop-loss orders that move with the market price. This method locks in profits while providing protection against reversal trends. 2. Position Sizing and Leverage Control: Balanced Exposure: Ensure that the sizes of the long and short positions are balanced to maintain a market-neutral stance. This helps in minimizing the impact of broad market movements on the pair trade. Leverage Management: Be cautious with the use of leverage. Excessive leverage can amplify losses, especially in volatile market conditions. Always align leverage with your risk tolerance and market assessment. 3. Regular Monitoring and Adjustments: Adaptation to Market Changes: Be flexible to adjust or close the positions based on significant changes in market conditions or when the initial trading assumptions no longer hold true. 4. Utilizing Risk Management Tools: Risk Management Software: Set alerts on TradingView to help track the performance and risk level of your pair trades effectively. Backtesting: Regularly backtest the strategy against historical data to ensure it remains effective under various market conditions. This can also help refine the entry and exit criteria to better handle market volatility. Effective risk management not only preserves capital but also enhances the potential for profitability by maintaining disciplined trading practices. These strategies ensure that traders can sustain their operations and capitalize on opportunities without facing disproportionate risks. Conclusion Pair trading Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures offers traders a sophisticated strategy to exploit inefficiencies within the yield curve while mitigating exposure to broader market movements. This approach leverages the distinct characteristics of these two futures contracts, aiming to profit from the relative movements between long-term and short-term interest rates. Key Takeaways: Market Neutral Strategy: Pair trading is fundamentally a market-neutral strategy that focuses on the relative performance of two assets rather than their individual price movements. This can provide insulation against market volatility and reduce directional risk. Importance of Strategy and Discipline: Successful pair trading requires a disciplined approach to strategy implementation, from trade setup and execution to ongoing management and exit. Adhering to a predefined strategy helps maintain focus and objectivity in trading decisions. Dynamic Market Adaptation: The financial markets are continuously evolving, influenced by economic data, policy changes, and global events. A successful pair trader must remain adaptable, continuously analyzing market conditions and adjusting strategies as needed to align with the current economic landscape. Comprehensive Risk Management: Effective risk management is crucial in pair trading, involving careful consideration of position sizing, stop-loss settings, and regular strategy reviews. This ensures sustainability and longevity in trading by protecting against undue losses. By maintaining a disciplined approach and adapting to market changes, traders can harness the potential of Micro Treasury Yield Futures for strategic pair trading, balancing risk and reward effectively. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
4
Introducing another way to display volume profile sectionsHello traders! If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly. Please also click “Boost”. Have a good day. ------------------------------------- The indicators activated in the settings are those created by trading volume. Therefore, this indicator represents the volume profile section. The indicator that the arrow points to is the indicator I mentioned earlier. By looking at this indicator together with volume candles, you can more clearly identify the volume profile section and support and resistance sections. In addition, you can verify the start of trading by checking the movement of the BW indicator, which consists of five indicators, namely MACD, StochRSI, CCI, PVT, and superTrend indicators. BW-MACD, BW-StochRSI, BW-CCI, BW-PVT, and BW-superTrend indicators are displayed separately to help you understand the indicators. Once your trading timing has been selected, you need to create a trading strategy that suits your investment style. What is important in creating a trading strategy that suits your investment style is the investment period and investment size. Once the investment period and investment size have been decided, you must create a trading method and profit realization method using the information obtained from chart analysis. Trading methods include buying, selling, and stop loss methods. The purchase method should focus on how to lower the average purchase price by purchasing in installments. At that time, when the price falls below the stop loss point and shows resistance, you need to think about how to proceed with selling. When taking a stop loss, you must proceed according to the investment period you have set. For example, if you decide to trade within one wave as a short-term trade and proceed with the trade, but the price falls below the stop loss point, you should be able to sell 100% and then watch the situation. If the price rises after purchasing, you must proceed with selling according to the selling method. The selling method must also be carried out according to the investment period. However, the method of increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit by selling the amount equal to the purchase amount can be continued into mid- to long-term trading even if the transaction was done through day trading or short-term trading. The reason is that the average purchase price of coins (tokens) corresponding to profits is 0. If you add other indicators to help you conduct split transactions based on price fluctuations, the chart will look like the one above. If the chart is unfamiliar to your eyes, It is recommended to view only the HA-Low, HA-High indicators and the M-Signal indicators of the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts. Have a good time. thank you -------------------------------------------------- - The big picture A full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K. This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 13401.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future. We need to see if we can break through these points upward. Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched. #BTCUSD 1M If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -----------------
Education
by readCrypto
RSI as a Trend ToolMost people use the RSI as a momentum indicator, trying to find Overbought/Oversold (OBOS) conditions, and/or divergences. However there is also a way to use it as a Trend Tool. There is a mathematical relationship that connects the RSI and EMA's. The formula is RSI(x) cross-over 50-line = Close cross-over EMA(2x) i.e. RSI(14) cross-over 50 line = Close cross-over EMA(28) This one of the properties of the RSI, which I discovered when taking a more indept look into momentum indicators, which ultimately led to the discovery of the MACD-v in 2014/2015 The MACD-v was then publicly disclosed in 2022, in the form of a a paper called "MACD-v: Volatility Normalised Momentum", which was awarded: It has won 2 International Awards: 1. The “Founders Award” (2022), for advances in Active Investment Management from the National Association of Active Investment Managars (NAAIM) 2. The “Charles H. Dow Award” (2022) for outstanding research in Technical Analysis, from the Chartered Market Technicians Association (CMTA)
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by AlexSpiroglou
Price overextension: misconceptions and common mistakesPrice overextension remains a widely misunderstood concept in trading, causing both novice and seasoned traders to make errors in their decision-making. This misinterpretation often leads to placing trades in the wrong direction or, equally detrimental, overlooking profitable opportunities. In essence, price overextension signifies that the market has undergone a rapid and excessive movement in one direction. Such movements are often perceived as unsustainable. Numerous indicators, such as Stochastic, RSI, Bollinger Bands and many other, attempt to identify such "abnormal" price movements so traders could capitalize on them. Despite variations in statistical methods and calculations, their common goal is to detect instances where price went or down too much and is likely to reverse. In this discussion, I will use Relative-Strength-Index (RSI), a popular indicator, to convey my perspective on price overextension. While some traders argue for customization, the elusive question of "how" often remains unanswered. From my experience, there are no universally perfect settings that consistently yield optimal results. I’ll draw my examples from the recent SPY bar chart (February 2024). The first misconception The first misconception is that if price is overextended it is time to immediately start looking for a trade in the opposite direction. The most important phrase here is “start looking”. Many beginners misinterpret this as an invitation to commence trading, leading to the premature initiation of short positions during perceived market "overextension" and vice versa. So, the first and foremost important advice is to never try guessing top/bottom based on one indicator or gut feeling. Simple as it seems I remember many times breaking this rule myself because the temptation was too strong. It rarely ended up well. On the graph, I've highlighted three recent instances where the RSI exceeded 70 (indicating overbought conditions). What stands out is that, following each occurrence, the price surged significantly before consolidation set in, inflicting losses upon short traders. Even experienced traders, who look for confluence of signals, may fall into this trap. In the first two examples, bearish candlestick patterns failed to prevent subsequent price increases. Most likely, those candles were “created” by weak hands traders, who tried to short market, while it was actually controlled by strong buyers. These instances could have been avoided by considering the daily graph, revealing a robust bullish context – price was in an uptrend, one-time-framing up on weekly. There were couple of moments when bears gained short term control (Tuesdays 13th and 20th) but they never could take the previous week low; bulls always confirmed their control. The second advice is to avoid trading against higher level context. While sometimes those trades might work the result is usually mediocre and most of the times you’ll simply lose. If you really wish to trade against context you need to construct a solid dossier of evidence, supporting your trade. The second misconception What is the second misconception? It is that when price overextended it is not time to go with the market. In this scenario, traders refrain from initiating long trades after RSI indicates overbought conditions, potentially causing them to miss profitable opportunities. It might not hurt your account but who likes missing good opportunities? Surprisingly, seizing these trades correctly is not much harder than any other trade. It simply requires prudence and discipline and getting rid-off cognitive biases. For example, in the second example on the graph a trader could win up to 1% if he played off gap-up open after seeing that the new price has found acceptance. Conclusion It is possible to build a profitable strategy that relies on “price overextension” concept. However, it demands more than a cursory examination of a single indicator and adherence to textbook candle patterns. Personally, I reached a point where I entirely abandoned the use of RSI and similar tools because, instead of providing clarity, they seemed to cloud my thinking. Opting for a more effective approach involves keenly observing actual market behavior, which often defies conventional expectations. Study of high-level contexts, understanding key levels, and discerning confluence in price action signals on lower timeframes consistently prove invaluable. This method helps steer clear of common pitfalls and contributes to enhancing overall trading results.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by hermes_trisme
Beating the S&P500 (SPX) Buy&Hold strategy by 16 timesS&P500 (SPX) strategy using Stochastic RSI Min-Max, normalized Volatility and Trailing Stop signals, beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 16 times Embarking on the quest to time the market accurately, the 'Holy Grail' of strategies, led me to create a script to approach this goal. Unlike other strategies that I tested, this one not only surpasses the long-term S&P500 Buy&Hold approach but does so by a remarkable 16.38 times! Initially, I employed an A.I. program based on an LSTM Neural Network using TensorFlow. Despite achieving a 55% next-day prediction accuracy for short/long positions, I sought improvement using a heuristic pine-scripting approach, incorporating stochastic RSI oscillators, moving averages, and volatility signals. With default parameters, this strategy, freely available as "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" delivered a staggering 2,663,001% profit since February 1871. In the same period, the Buy&Hold strategy "only" generated 162,599% profit. Picture this: a $1,000 investment in 1871 would now be worth $26,630,014 by February 2024. Check it out for yourself loading this strategy. The script operates as a Stochastic RSI Min-Max script, automatically generating buy and sell alerts on the S&P500 SPX. What sets it apart? The strategy detects "corrections," minimizes losses using Trailing Stop and Moving Average parameters, and strategically re-enters the market after detecting bottoms using tuned Stochastic RSI signals and normalized Volatility thresholds. Tailor its parameters to your preference, use it for strategic exits and entries, or stick to the Buy&Hold strategy and start new buy trades at regular intervals using buy signals only. In the pursuit of minimizing losses, the script has learned the effectiveness of a 9% trailing stop on trades. As you can clearly see on the upper graph (revolving around 100), the average overall green surfaces (profits) of all trades are much bigger than the average red surfaces (losses). This follows Warren Buffets first rule of trading to "Never lose money" and thus minimizing losses. Update: Advanced S&P500 Stochastic RSI Min-Max Buy/Sell Alert Generator I have also created an Alerter script based on the same engine as this script, which auto-generates buy and sell alert signals (via e-mail, in-app push-notifications, pop-ups etc.). The script is currently fine-tuned for the S&P500 SPX tracker, but parameters can be fine-tuned upon request for other trackers or stocks. If you are interested in this alerter-version script or fine-tuning other trackers, please drop me a message or mail xplorr at live dot com. How to use this Strategy? Select the SPX (S&P500) graph and set the value to "Day" values (top) and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right). Select in the Indicators the "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" script and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right) Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values "Percent Profitable" and "Net Profit" (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters). How to interpret the graphical information? In the SPX graph, you will see the Buy(Blue) and Sell(Purple) labels created by the strategy. The green/red graph below shows the accumulated profit/loss in % of to the initial buy value of the trade (it revolves around 100%, 110 means 10% profit, 95 means 5% loss) The small purple blocks indicate out-of-trade periods The green graph below the zero line is the stochastic RSI buy signal. You can set a threshold (green horizontal line). The vertical green lines show minima below that threshold and indicate possible buy signals. The blue graph above the zero line is the normalized volatility signal. You can set a threshold (blue horizontal line) affecting buy signals. The red graph above the zero line is the slower stochastic RSI sell signal. You can set a threshold (red horizontal line). The red areas indicate values above that threshold. However real exits are triggered if close values are crossing below the trailing stop value or optionally when the fast moving average crosses under the slow one. The red areas above the threshold are rather indicative to show that the SPX is expensive and not ideal to enter. Please note that in bullish periods the red line and areas can stay at a permanent high value, so it is not ideal to use as a strict sell signal. However, when it drops below zero and the green vertical lines appear, these are strong buy signals together with a high volatility. These Parameters can be changed Buy Stochastic Lookback Buy Stochastic Smoother Buy Threshold Buy Only After Fall Minimum % Fall Sell Stochastic Lookback Sell Stochastic Smoother Sell Threshold Sell Only With Profit Minimum % Profit Use Sell MA Fast MA Sell Slow MA Sell MA Sell Threshold Use Buy Volatility Volatility Smoother Volatility Threshold Use Trailing Stop Use ATR (iso of a fixed percentage for the trailing stop) ATR Lookback Trailing Stop Factor(or fixed percentage if "use ATR" is false) Trailing Stop Smoother Important : optimizing and using these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
SP:SPXEducation
by XPl0RR
Chainlink Educational Post - Finding Support And ResistanceMany of you have been asking me how I timed my NASDAQ:LINK trade so well. Purchasing at $7.63 on October 20th and now seeing it up to $16.20, I will say it was slightly lucky, but it was not random. In this video I go over a few of my basic strategies for getting major price points out of an asset in less than 15 minutes. Follow for more trading content. Exclusive videos will be released weekly. Sorry about the AUDIO quality - Dont have a mic with me right now. - Joshua Helios Capital Investment
COINBASE:LINKUSDEducation
by Helios_Capital_Investment
2
Key Interpretation Methods of CCI IndicatorsHello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- The CCI indicator, which is included in the 'Strength' indicator, now displays only the oversold or overbought zones. Accordingly, it seems that there will be difficulties in understanding the indicators, so we took the time to give reinforcement explanations. The CCI setting I use is 150. Accordingly, it is utilized to see the flow of the mid-term and above. The basic source value of CCI is (high + low + close) / 3. Accordingly, we added the 150 SMA line and the CCI indicator as a secondary indicator. If it rises a lot from the 150 SMA line, the CCI value rises above +100. When it rises above +100, it is interpreted as entering the overbought zone. Entering the overbought zone like this means that there is a possibility that it will exit the overbought zone in the near future. However, while it is in the overbought zone, it also means that the force to rise is just as strong. Accordingly, it is the basis for conducting transactions by identifying support and resistance points or sections. Conversely, if the price drops a lot from the 150 SMA line, the CCI value will fall below -100. Similarly at this time, when the CCI breaks out of the oversold zone, it enters the sideways zone, providing a basis for trading. When the CCI is between -100 and +100, prices move sideways. It is not easy to analyze with only the CCI indicator when it is in the sideways section with the CCI indicator. Therefore, with the CCI indicator, it is recommended to find the basis for trading when entering and exiting the overbought section (CCI +100) and oversold section (CCI -100). Since you can check the overbought and oversold sections of the Bollinger bands and CCI shown in this price chart, I think it is a good idea to use it together with the Bollinger bands. It is quite difficult to create a trading strategy based solely on indicators like these. Therefore, it is important to create a trading strategy by making sure to set support and resistance points on the price chart and see if the indicators are supported or resisted at those support and resistance points or intervals. The setting value of Bollinger Bands used in this chart is 60. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
Mastering Oscillators In TradingOscillator indicators are technical analysis tools that show the rate at which a particular asset's price or other aspect is changing. Oscillators help traders identify potential trend reversals, trend continuations, and overbought or oversold conditions. These are general strategies that can apply to most oscillators. We would like to cover these in detail so you can ensure that you are using your oscillators to the fullest of their potential. There are literally thousands of oscillators to choose from on TradingView. All of them probably have a solid use case, but there are a handful of oscillators that have stood the test of time. Those titans of the oscillator category would include the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Stochastic Oscillator. 1. Trading with Oscillators: Identifying Entry and Exit Points To use oscillators for trading, traders can look for signals to enter or exit trades. For example, a bullish signal could occur when the indicator crosses above its centerline, indicating that the trend is shifting from bearish to bullish. A bearish signal could occur when the indicator crosses below its centerline, indicating that the trend is shifting from bullish to bearish. Depending on if you are currently in a trade or considering a trade these bullish/bearish signals can be used as either an entry or exit signal. Traders can also use the momentum of oscillator indicators to identify overbought or oversold conditions. An asset is considered overbought when the oscillator is above a certain threshold, such as 70. Conversely, an asset is considered oversold when an oscillator is below a certain threshold, such as 30. Traders can use these thresholds to identify potential reversal points. Highly overbought can be power areas to look for entry or exit signals. 2. Oscillator Divergences: Confirming Trend Reversals and Continuations One of the most popular ways oscillators are used is by looking for divergences between the indicator and the price of the asset being analyzed. For example, a bullish divergence could occur when the price of an asset is making lower lows, but the oscillator is making higher lows. This could be an indication that the trend is about to reverse from bearish to bullish. Conversely, a bearish divergence could occur when the price of an asset is making higher highs, Oscillator is making lower highs. This could be an indication that the trend is about to reverse from bullish to bearish. 3. Using Oscillators in Combination with Other Technical Indicators While oscillators can be an incredibly powerful tool on their own, traders can also use them in combination with other technical indicators. For example, traders can use moving averages to confirm oscillator signals. If the oscillator generates a bullish signal and the price of the asset is above its 50-day moving average, it could be a strong indication that the trend is shifting from bearish to bullish. We see a similar use case in a bearish scenario to follow a trend! Traders can also use momentum in combination with other oscillators, such as the relative strength index (RSI) or the Stochastic RSI. These indicators provide additional confirmation of momentum signals and can help traders avoid false signals. This is actually one of our favorites as the Stochastic RSI is a measure of the momentum of the RSI. So their respective signals can complement very well. Putting It All Together Traders can put this knowledge forward to use most oscillators correctly to adjust their trading strategies and adapt to changing market conditions. We also recommend looking at information the creator of an oscillator has put out in regard to how to properly use the indicator. Traders can use these strategies to help modify or change their positions. For example, if the chosen oscillator used for an asset is weakening, it could be an indication that the trend is about to reverse. Traders can adjust their strategies accordingly by taking profit from their long positions or entering short positions. Similarly, if the chosen oscillator for an asset is strengthening, it could be an indication that the trend is about to continue. Traders can adjust their strategies accordingly by adding to their long and short positions or entering new long or short positions. In conclusion, oscillators are an extremely powerful technical analysis tool that can help traders identify potential trend reversals, trend continuations, and overbought or oversold conditions. By using oscillators in combination with other technical indicators and adjusting their trading strategies to adapt to changing market conditions, traders can improve their trading performance and achieve greater success in the markets.
Education
by LeafAlgo
2
Introducing the Trendicator (by Stock Justice)In this comprehensive tutorial, we dive deep into the world of the Trendicator, a powerful and innovative trading tool made by @StockJustice that enables traders to identify trends, spot reversals, detect bullish and bearish divergences, and perform multi-timeframe analysis. We delve into the inner workings of this never-before-seen indicator, demystifying its complex algorithms and showing you how to harness its full potential. From understanding the unique features of the Trendicator such as its compression stages, divergences, and MACD crossovers, to learning how to pair it with a Displaced Aggregated Moving Average (DACD) for enhanced precision, we cover it all in a fun and engaging manner. The tutorial is not just about explaining the Trendicator's functionalities, but it also provides practical tips and strategies for using it in real-world trading scenarios. We discuss how the Trendicator can help traders spot the onset of a trend, gauge its strength, and pinpoint potential reversal points. Additionally, we explain how traders can utilize the bullish and bearish divergences identified by the Trendicator to anticipate market turns and make informed trading decisions. Lastly, we emphasize the importance of multi-timeframe analysis in trading and demonstrate how the Trendicator can facilitate this process. By interpreting the Trendicator's signals across different timeframes, traders can gain a more comprehensive view of the market and make more accurate predictions. This tutorial is a must-watch for any trader aspiring to level up their technical analysis skills and trade more confidently and effectively. So, get ready to embark on an exciting journey of learning and discovery with the Trendicator!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by StockJustice
Stochastic RSI in detail and how to use it.The Stoch RSI (Stochastic Relative Strength Index) is a technical analysis indicator used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in financial markets. It is a combination of two popular indicators: the Stochastic Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The Stoch RSI applies the Stochastic Oscillator formula to the RSI values, aiming to provide a more sensitive and faster signal for potential trend reversal. The Stoch RSI is calculated as follows: Choose the time period for which you want to calculate the Stoch RSI. The most common period is 14 . Calculate the RSI: (Detailed post on this in the link below) Determine the highest and lowest RSI values: Identify the highest and lowest RSI values over the same time period (e.g., 14 days). Calculate the Stoch RSI: Use the following formula to calculate the Stoch RSI: Stoch RSI = (Current RSI - Lowest RSI) / (Highest RSI - Lowest RSI) The resulting Stoch RSI value will range from 0 to 1 (or 0% to 100%). A value above 0.8 (or 80%) typically indicates an overbought condition, suggesting a potential price correction or reversal, while a value below 0.2 (or 20%) indicates an oversold condition, which may represent a buying opportunity. What does Stoch RSI tell us ? Stoch RSI is a measure of how fast the RSI is changing. As an analogy. Imagine you are driving your car and have foot on the accelerator which will cause increase in the speed of your cat at every moment, now the rate at which your car's speed increases is acceleration. The bigger the more powerful engine your car has the more acceleration you get and the faster you get to the top speed of your car. So, in this analogy speed of your car at any instant is RSI , acceleration is Stoch RSI and top speed of your car is overbought condition of an asset. RSI measures who is relatively more aggressive among buyers and sellers at a given instant. Stoch RSI measures how aggressive the buyers or sellers are at a given instant. So just like in a fight if someone is too aggressive, they are going to spend themselves too quickly and even though they want to fight more they won't be able to until they ease up and relax a bit, this is similar to Stoch RSI of an asset getting to overbought condition and then asset either retraces or takes a pause as buyers are exhausted and need to regain strength by taking profits which turns them into sellers and the asset starts moving in opposite direction. Why is 80 considered overbought? The number 80 is chosen based on empirical evidence, suggesting that when the Stoch RSI reaches these extreme values, there is a higher probability of a price reversal or correction. When the Stoch RSI is above 80, it indicates that the asset's price has risen significantly over a short period and could be overextended. In this situation, the asset may be overvalued, and traders may consider selling or taking profits as the price could reverse or correct. How to use Stoch RSI to enter a trade? How to enter a Long Trade: ======================= Step 1. Always use Stoch RSI along with RSI to make a decision: Step 2. Use it on mid to high term time frame (4h and higher). Step 3. Make sure both RSI and Stoch RSI are in oversold zone. Step 4. Make sure the asset is resting on a key support level and holding it. Step 5. Fearlessly enter the trade. How to enter a Short Trade: ======================= Step 1. Always use Stoch RSI along with RSI to make a decision: Step 2. Use it on mid to high term time frame (4h and higher). Step 3. Make sure both RSI and Stoch RSI are in overbought zone. Step 4. Make sure the asset is rejected from a key resistance level and is not able to breach it. Step 5. Fearlessly enter the trade. What happens if Support or Resistance is broken in Step 3 above: ======================================================= That's where divergences come into play. What is a divergence? =================== Divergence is a technical analysis concept that occurs when the price of an asset and RSI/Stoch RSI indicator move in opposite directions, indicating a potential trend reversal. There are two types of divergences: bullish divergence and bearish divergence. Bullish divergence occurs when the price of an asset makes a new low while the RSI/Stoch RSI indicator makes a higher low. Remember from explanation provided in sections above, this suggests that even though the price is going lower there are more buying activities than selling and the assets are becoming stronger, and a potential trend reversal may be imminent. Bearish divergence, on the other hand, occurs when the price of an asset makes a new high while the RSI/Stoch RSI indicator makes a lower high. I have highlighted bullish divergence in chart with purple line. Shown in Red line is bullish Divergence in Stoch RSI, when RSI is not fully oversold, this can happen when a new support is being formed on the chart due to changes in fundamentals of the underlying asset or some news events. Bullish and Bearish Divergences are even more powerful signals for taking trades, but we must make sure price is holding a support or rejecting from a resistance before taking the trades, otherwise divergences can easily disappear. Why do traders fail to effectively use RSI? The primary reason is lack of experience in trading. Which leads to impatient behavior. Not knowing how to mark key support/resistance levels. No risk management skills. (Taking too much risk) Lack of trust in self when taking trades, (Keep stopping losses too tight which knocks them out of the trades). I have shown several instances where RSI generated long signals and all of them were successful, the only reason a trader would not be able to use RSI effectively is because of the above reasons.
SP:SPXEducation
by zakoraio
RSI in detail and how to effectively use itWhat is RSI? RSI stands for Relative Strength Index; The RSI measures the strength of asset's price action by comparing the magnitude of its recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses. The RSI is calculated using the average gain and average loss over a specified period, typically 14. The formula for the RSI is: RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS)) where RS = Average Gain / Average Loss. To calculate the average gain, add up the gains over the specified period and divide by the number of periods. Average Gain = Sum of Gains over N periods / N To calculate the average loss, add up the losses over the specified period and divide by the number of periods. Average Loss = Sum of Losses over N periods / N In simple terms : To determine the average gain/loss for the closing price of the asset for each period in the selected time. Calculate the difference between the closing price of the current period and the closing price of the previous period. If the current closing price is higher than the previous closing price, the difference is considered a gain. If the current closing price is lower than the previous closing price, the difference is considered a loss. Then calculate the average loss by summing up all the losses over the specified time period and dividing them by the number of periods in the timeframe. What does RSI tell you? To understand RSI we must understand the term Relative Strength which refers to the ratio of the average gain to the average loss over a specified period. It is used to compare the strength of the stock or asset price gains to its price losses over a certain timeperiod. For example, let's say we want to calculate the relative strength of a stock over the past 14 trading days. We first need to calculate the average gain and average loss over that period. Suppose the average gain is USD 2 per share, and the average loss is USD 1 per share. To calculate the Relative Strength (RS), we divide the average gain by the average loss: RS = Average Gain / Average Loss = USD2 /USD 1 = 2 RS value greater than 1 indicates that the stock has experienced more gains than losses over the specified time period. In this case, the RS value of 2 indicates that the stock has had twice as many gains as losses over the past 14 trading days. The higher value of relative strength indicates Buyers have been relatively stronger than sellers over a period of the time and vice-versa of the relative strength is below 1, which indicates sellers have been stronger compared to buyers over a period of time. When the RS remains above 1 over an extended period of time the RSI plot will keep rising, it can have a maximum value of 100. Any value higher than 70 for RSI is considered overbought and an RSI value below 30 is considered oversold. What is overbought and oversold? Overbought is a zone in time and the price of an asset that has risen in price rapidly and is now considered to be trading at a higher value than its true worth or fair value. When an asset becomes overbought, it means that there are more buyers in the market than sellers, causing the price to increase rapidly. This can occur when investors become overly optimistic about the asset's future prospects or when there is a surge in demand for the asset. However, an overbought asset is not necessarily a signal to sell. In fact, some traders and investors may view an overbought asset as an opportunity to profit from further price gains. Nevertheless, an overbought asset is often seen as a warning sign that the price may be due for a correction or pullback, as it may have become detached from its underlying fundamentals or economic conditions. Oversold conditions are simply the opposite of overbought. Why is RSI above 70 considered overbought? The reason a reading above 70 is considered overbought in RSI is because it is a widely used and accepted threshold. The value of 70 is not based on any specific mathematical or statistical calculation, but rather it is a commonly used level that has been found to be effective over time. Now because it's a commonly used threshold it becomes self-fulfilling prophecy, where everyone starts acting on it and start selling the asset or at least being to anticipate coming pull back, which leads to slowdown in buying and increased selling, which causes RSI to start going down in oversold territory and the cycle is repeats. How to effectively use RSI? For a long trade: Step 1: Use it on mid to high term timeframe ideally 4h and above. Step 2: Wait for the RSI to come to the oversold zone. Step 3: To make sure RSI oversold conditions are to be trusted for entering a trade, the Price must be a key support level and holding it. Step 4: If all above conditions are met, then fearlessly enter a trade. For a Short trade: Step 1: Use it on mid to high term timeframe ideally 4h and above. Step 2: Wait for the RSI to come to the overbought zone. Step 3: To make sure RSI overbought conditions are to be trusted for entering a trade, the Price must be a key resistance level and rejecting it. Step 4: If all above conditions are met, then fearlessly enter a trade. What happens if Price fails to hold Support or Breaches Resistance in step 3 above? That's where divergences come into play. What is a divergence? Divergence is a technical analysis concept that occurs when the price of an asset and its RSI indicator move in opposite directions, indicating a potential trend reversal. There are two types of RSI divergences: bullish divergence and bearish divergence. Bullish divergence occurs when the price of an asset makes a new low while the RSI indicator makes a higher low. Remember from explanation provided in sections above, this suggests that even though the price is going lower there are more buying activities than selling and the assets are becoming stronger, and a potential trend reversal may be imminent. Bearish divergence, on the other hand, occurs when the price of an asset makes a new high while the RSI indicator makes a lower high. I have highlighted bullish divergence in chart with purple line. Bullish and Bearish Divergences are even more powerful signals for taking trades, but we must make sure price is holding a support or rejecting from a resistance before taking the trades, otherwise divergences can easily disappear. Why do traders fail to effectively use RSI? The primary reason is lack of experience in trading. Which leads to impatient behavior. No risk management skills. (Taking too much risk) Lack of trust in self when taking trades, (Keep stopping losses too tight which knocks them out of the trades). I have show several instances where RSI generated long signals and all of them were successful , the only reason a trader would not be able to use RSI effectively is because of above reasons.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by zakoraio
The Momentum of MomentumUtilizing oscillators to confirm trend continuations and reversals is a momentum traders’ bread and butter. You most likely have the RSI or MACD saved to your favorites, but have you ever considered analyzing the momentum of an oscillator itself? You would be surprised at what insights the momentum of an oscillator can show you. In this article, we will look at how the momentum of an oscillator can help parse out false signals and give you an edge in your decision-making. Below is the BTC/USDT 15-minute chart, the True Momentum Oscillator (TMO), and a 50-day EMA. We have highlighted what appears to be a short-term double top, with a weakening oscillator momentum that failed to reach or exceed the previous level. The price consistently bounced around the 50-period EMA and had cleanly broken through with a retrace imminent. Whether you aim to trade the break of the EMA or the retrace and rejection, this appears to be set up for a potential short trade. Now we take the momentum of the TMO and its signal line and plot those lines (purple and white). Another layer to this story suddenly unfolds. We can now see from the new momentum lines that this move to the downside weakened almost as soon as it began. There is now a clear divergence between the oscillator and its momentum lines. What seemed to be a solid short setup now has upside potential. We must now question our next move. A few bars later, the price broke above the 50-EMA and quickly touched it one last time and is followed by a robust move to the upside. In the current market, it is easy to lean short. Eager traders might have taken the short only to be burned by the strong move against the desired trade. Adding the layer of the momentum of our oscillator helped us read between the noise. We had a better idea of where the next chapter could take us, or at the very least, we could avoid a risky trade. This is just one example of how the momentum of oscillators can be another valuable tool in our technical analysis tool belt. This momentum offers a unique visual aid for making quick decisions when trading.
Education
by LeafAlgo
Bull Bear Power Void - Your volume oscillator is lying to you.The simplicity of this indicator is REALLY what has me gassed up. It's the smallest indicator I have coded but it is just so powerful. There are a million oscillators out there based on volume. My biggest problem with them is that they simply tell you whether you have volume to the upside or volume to the down side. It kind of tricks you with the lack of information into thinking you have a change in your trend or that you're going to be able to break out of a range across a moving average or through some trend line or support and resistance. However many of these Oscillators are failing because they lack to tell you one key thing. They tell you that you have volume but they never tell you if it's enough volume. Even a popular indicator like the MACD can have its MACD Line crossing upwards over the signal, telling you that you have an uptrend but again it's still failing to give you the results of how much volume of trades you have and "is it enough" volume in that crossover. It boils down to the one key fact that without volume there is no momentum. This should be able to make trading crossovers a lot easier. So in today's video I'm going to show you the newest addition to the trading View Community Scripts and it is called, "The Bull Bear Void Volume Oscillator" Use this link to get it for free From my own testing, this oscillator can predict whether the next candle will get you the move you need or not. In the markets you cannot have anything good without volume. After you have volume you have momentum. You cannot have momentum without volume and this is the key thing that causes people to fail when they look for breakouts, trend reversals, or if they're wondering whether this move is a fake out. This indicator is based on the study of volume spread analysis or VSA. This indicator is designed to be paired perfectly with the Heiken Ashi Algo oscillator. Get it here This indicator is strictly to be used as a confirmation indicator and not to be used by itself to tell you when to buy or sell. What are its Parts? The Colored Columns or Volume Bars RED Column - Indicates volume movie downward Light Red - indicates volume is pulling back from a downward move Green - indicates volume is moving upwards Light Green - indicates volume is moving down from an outboard move The void Is Green for bullish and red for bearish. This is a Cloud that appears extending from the center upwards and downwards. This is the average range of volume. Anything volume closing inside of this void is ranging volume or very little volume and it is not enough to break the trend or break out. The MACD and MACD Signal Line Just like using the macd these two lines indicate whether the trend is moving up or the trend is moving down. But in this oscillator it's been colorized to show you when profits are being taken versus new positions being opened in either direction. Rules for a SELL CONFIRMATION TRADE The macd line must be underneath the signal line and the macd line must be below the midline. A bullish column must appear below the midline and it must extend outside of the red void. if you are using the heikin-ashi Aldo oscillator you must also have a red Heiken Ashi candle close below -10. The MACD trend line must be a solid color and NOT black. To open a LONG position you simply reverse the rules.
Education
by CoffeeshopCrypto
21
Regarding the SR_R_C (Stoch RSI + RSI + CCI) indicator...Hello? Welcome, traders. By "following", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Like". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- We use several methods to analyze charts. When you start studying charts, you study a lot of things. However, you should forget everything you have studied, trends, patterns, and indicators when conducting real trading. Otherwise, it is because you are stuck in the studied frame and try to fit the chart into the studied frame without interpreting the chart movement as it is. I think that this behavior makes you analyze charts with subjective thoughts, which increases the chances of creating a wrong trading strategy. To prevent this, we will explain a new indicator. The SR_R_C indicator is a combined indicator of the Stoch RSI, RSI, and CCI indicators. - The set values ​​of the Stoch RSI indicator are 14, 7, 3, 3. It is displayed as one line by treating it as the middle value of the K and D lines. - The setting value of the RSI indicator is 14. Instead of the existing Close value, we tried to maintain the continuity between the oversold section and the overbought section by calculating the Heikin Ashi Close value. RSI indicators are displayed in columns. - The set value of the CCI indicator is 9. When the CCI value rises above the +100 point, it is marked as overbought, and when it falls below the -100 point, it is marked as oversold. CCI indicators are displayed in bgcolor. There are a lot of information on how to interpret each indicator if you search. However, you can read the searched content and forget it. The detailed interpretation method can add subjective interpretation to the objective information that can be obtained through the index, so you can forget about the method of interpretation of the index itself. The core interpretation method of the SR_R_C indicator can be interpreted that if two or more of the three indicators are defective, a reversal of the trend is highly likely. For example, if two or more of the Stoch RSI, RSI, and CCI indicators are in the oversold zone, it can be interpreted that there is a high possibility of turning into an uptrend. Conversely, if it enters the overbought zone, it can be interpreted that it is highly likely to turn into a downtrend. Trend patterns such as Fibonacci, Harmonic, and Elliott waves will show the result of the discussion depending on the selected point. Therefore, in order to use these patterns, indicators, and tools, the selection of a selection point is the most important. However, I think that auxiliary indicators, such as MACD, RSI, Stoch RSI, CCI, etc., can help to obtain objective information because there is no point of choice. In conclusion, the reason for analyzing the chart is to make a trading strategy based on the analyzed content to make a successful trade, so it is important to analyze the chart in the most objective and essential way. Even with any of these indicators, patterns, and tools, critically choosing the wrong support and resistance points will lead to trouble crafting a trading strategy. Therefore, solid learning of support and resistance points is required before studying or utilizing all indicators, patterns, and tools. Thank you for reading this long article to the end. For reference, all indicators included in this chart can be used normally if the chart is shared. Also, you can copy and paste the indicators to other layouts to use them neatly.
Education
by readCrypto
2
One Hour Strategy- Engulfing candle entry to short trade!The 1 hour Forex strategy that most intraday traders use as part of their strategy. The 1-hour trading strategy is a very popular trading strategy, as there are so many ways that you can utilize the one-hour period. Rules: Right pair, Right Price, Right Session & Right Time. KEY TAKEAWAYS The 1-hour forex trading strategy is a popular strategy amongst beginners and intraday traders due to the variety of ways a forex pair can be analyzed during this period. The one-hour timeframe captures a lot of market movement and can be a good way to gauge the latest sentiment. Many traders use this strategy in conjunction with technical tools such as RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages. What is the 1 hour forex strategy? The one-hour trading strategy is simply the timeframe that you conduct your analysis on any forex pair. The intraday strategy is popular due to the number of ways a forex pair can be analyzed during the one-hour timeframe. To take advantage of the 1-hour forex strategy, you need three things: 1: Analysis – Your analysis should form part of every single trade you take. It is crucial that you conduct thorough analysis, which may involve certain technical or fundamental factors. For technical analysis, consider using a range of tools such as MACD, Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages or Price Action. For fundamental analysis, you might consider paying close attention to the release of important financial data such as interest rates, CPI, or Labor numbers. 2: Entry – Getting your entry right can potentially mean the difference between more or less profit, and in some cases, it can mean the difference between a win or a loss. Your entry should be confirmed by your analysis. For instance, if you are a fan of using Price Action, then you might wait for confirmation until a particular candle presents itself – such as the morning star for a potential sell. 3: Exit – Your exit is just as important as your entry, although some might argue that it is more important depending on the circumstances of your trade. Planning your exit correctly can mean locking in profits, but more importantly it could minimize losses. Your exit should again have some sort of alert based on your analysis; this is to lock in profits as well as minimize losses. RULES: Trade right pair, at the right price, during the right session & during the right session. Was noted RSI below under 50 & yellow line above purple line? Yes. The attached trade had all of the four checked off (which gives you high probabilities of success doing this short trade for up to a 237 pips) of profit on your trade. Only three candlestick setups you ever need to know and use which are Engulfing (two candles), Harami (two candles) and/or Pinbar (three candles)<-- they are the one's I use exclusively in trading forex.
Education
by Anbat
1