BA: Speculative at New All-time High with Contrarian Long-term POnly 2 of the DJIA components are currently at new all-time highs: BA and PG. Boeing gapped and ran up on earnings news with a boost from HFTs and buybacks. Currently, the number of shares held by institutions is dropping. Vanguard, Blackrock, Price T Rowe, State Street, Capital World Investors, Northern Trust, all giants of the Buy Side, have lowered held inventory in recent months. The stock is at a speculative price as smaller funds buy heavily and buybacks of up to $14 billion move price up. Whether this will be a good strategy for BA this year remains to be seen. The chart is the Long-term Trend Monthly chart showing the severity of the speculative buying. Also you can see the Cycle chart pattern using the DPO indicator with a failure to trough V shape. Volume shows a steady decline as well. These are contrarian indicators to what price is doing.
Centered Oscillators
Correlation Coefficient + CCIPictured above is a graph of Royal Dutch Shell vs brent crude, the correlation coefficient between them, and the commodity channel index tracking the volume weighted moving average of Shell.
I tested this indicator on a few energy stocks: RDS, MRO, BP and XOM. Negative correlation between brent crude and an energy stock coupled with an overbought CCI seems to give an indication of price reversal. Here we see two overbought CCI readings coupled with negative correlation, both followed by massive drops in the price of BCO and RDS. Likewise we see negative correlation coupled with upward CCI readings pointing to massive price rises in RDS. Seems to work on daily time frame as well but indicator length will need to be tweaked accordingly.
Correlation coefficient going negative is an indication of pricing inefficiency and momentum potential, but does not give us an indication of price direction. The commodity channel index can give us a sense of where price momentum is pointed. Both put together give us a powerful indicator capable of foreshadowing both momentum and direction.
Education post 12/100 – How to trade hidden divergence?We covered regular divergences in the previous lesson, now let’s discuss what hidden divergences are.
Divergences not only signal a potential trend reversal; they can also be used as a possible sign for a trend continuation (price continues to move in its current direction).
Always remember, the trend is your friend, so whenever you can get a signal that the trend will continue, then good for you!
Hidden bullish divergence happens when price is making a higher low (HL), but the oscillator is showing a lower low (LL).
Hidden Bullish Divergence
This can be seen when the pair is in a UPTREND.
Once price makes a higher low (HL), look and see if the oscillator does the same.
If it doesn’t and makes a lower low (LL), then we’ve got some hidden divergence in our hands.
Hidden Bearish Divergence
Lastly, we’ve got hidden bearish divergence.
This occurs when price makes a lower high (LH), but the oscillator is making a higher high (HH).
By now you’ve probably guessed that this occurs in a DOWNTREND.
When you see hidden bearish divergence, chances are that the pair will continue to shoot lower and continue the downtrend.
Let’s recap what you’ve learned so far about hidden divergence.
If you’re a trend follower, then you should dedicate some time to spot some hidden divergence.
If you do happen to spot it, it can help you jump in the trend early.
Sounds good, yes?
Keep in mind that regular divergences are possible signals for trend reversals while hidden divergences signal trend continuation.
Regular divergences = signal possible trend reversal
Hidden divergences = signal possible trend continuation
How To: Profit with CCI Colored Candles / Bars w/ Histogram You have SPY Trending down today CCI and Candles are red pink and purple buy the 1st or 2nd pullback where CCI goes near ZERO line on CCI
I use 5min charts minium Indicator link:
Color of your candles matches your CCI with Histogram indicator and trend line . CCI EMA or SMA based option, traditional or modern formula calculation options ect. Can change Length, source, Trigger Lines, colors of candles and histogram and more
The CCI compares the current price to an average price over a period of time. The indicator fluctuates above or below zero, moving into positive or negative territory. While most values, approximately 75%, will fall between -100 and +100, about 25% of the values will fall outside this range, indicating a lot of weakness or strength in the price movement.
A basic CCI strategy is used to track the CCI for movement above +100, which generates buy signals, and movements below -100, which generates sell or short trade signals. Investors may only wish to take the buy signals, exit when the sell signals occur, and then re-invest when the buy signal occurs again.
The CCI compares the current price to an average price over a period of time. The indicator fluctuates above or below zero, moving into positive or negative territory. While most values, approximately 75%, will fall between -100 and +100, about 25% of the values will fall outside this range, indicating a lot of weakness or strength in the price movement.
When the CCI is above +100, this means the price is well above the average price as measured by the indicator. When the indicator is below -100, the price is well below the average price.
1 CCI strategy is used to track the CCI for movement above +100, which generates buy signals, and movements below -100, which generates sell or short trade signals. Investors may only wish to take the buy signals, exit when the sell signals occur, and then re-invest when the buy signal occurs again.
Long-term chart is used to establish the dominant trend, short-term chart establishing pullbacks and entry points into that trend. A multiple timeframe strategy is commonly used by more active traders and can even be used for day trading, as the "long term" and "short term" is relative to how long a trader wants their positions to last.
When the CCI moves above +100 on your longer-term chart, this indicates an upward trend, and you only watch for buy signals on the shorter-term chart. The trend is considered up until the longer-term CCI dips below -100.
When using a daily chart as the shorter timeframe, traders often buy when the CCI dips below -100 and then rallies back above -100. It would then be prudent to exit the trade once the CCI moves above +100 and then drops back below +100. Alternatively, if the trend on the longer-term CCI turns down, that indicates a sell signal to exit all long positions.
When the CCI is below -100 on the longer-term chart, only take short sale signals on the shorter-term chart. The downtrend is in effect until the longer-term CCI rallies above +100. The chart indicates that you should take a short trade when the CCI rallies above +100 and then drops back below +100 on the shorter-term chart. Traders would then exit the short trade once the CCI moves below -100 and then rallies back above -100. Alternatively, if the trend on the longer-term CCI turns up, exit all short positions.
Make the strategy more stringent by only taking long positions on the shorter time frame when the longer-term CCI is above +100. This will reduce the number of signals, but will ensure the overall trend is very strong.
Entry and exit rules on the shorter timeframe can also be adjusted. if the longer-term trend is up, you may allow the CCI on the shorter-term chart to dip below -100 and then rally back above zero (instead of -100) before buying. This will likely result in a paying a higher price, but offers more assurance that th
Lesson 2: MACD Indicator - The heart of technical analysisHello Friends,
Welcome to the Lesson 2. I hope y'all had been waiting for this one. Hopefully you all understood the first lesson on RSI really well, because this indicator when used with RSI, can do wonders in your trading style.
Lets get straight to the lesson without wasting any time.
Today we will study MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator. This is one of the most used indicators in technical analysis. This indicator fluctuates above and below the zero line. It highlights both the momentum and the trend direction of a coin. It may sound complicated, but it is fairly simple to use. In this lesson we will talk about how to use the indicator effectively, and what are some of the limitations it has.
MACD Setup:
As you can see in the chart, we have the MACD line in blue, and the signal line in orange. I prefer using the default setting for the MACD indicator as follows:
MACD Line: 12-26 day EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
Signal Line: 9 day EMA of MACD line
How do we trade with MACD?
So basically there are three types of signals within MACD:
1. Zero-Line crossovers
2. Signal Line crossovers
3. Divergence
Lets go over each one of them in detail, and I will stay as clear as possible in explaining it to you.
1. Zero- Line Crossovers:
Note: The Zero line is the dashed line I have drawn right in the middle of the MACD indicator on the chart.
In simple terms, When the MACD line moves across the zero line, it basically means that the 12 day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is crossing the 26 day EMA.
When MACD crosses the zero line from below, it might be the beginning of a new bullish trend. Similarly, when the MACD crosses the zero line from above to below, a new downtrend might be starting up.
In the chart example, we can see that there is a bullish trend going on right now, but there aren't too many zero line crossovers on MACD. I have marked some crossovers in yellow circles. You can clearly see that when the MACD crosses the Zero line from below to above, we see a price rise along with the MACD line rise until the MACD turns down towards the zero line. Similarly, when the MACD crosses the Zero line from above to below, we see a dip in the price.
The strategy is simple. When we are looking to buy using MACD, we buy when the MACD line crosses the zero line from below. And then see it in profit whenever you are comfortable. When you have been holding a coin for a long time, and you see the MACD line crossing the zero line from above, that usually is a sell signal. It is a good time to sell if you are in profit. Basically you hold long trades until MACD crosses below the zero line. This method is profitable when strong trends emerge.
Isn't this part simple? Good. Read it again so that you get one part of the MACD indicator really well before moving on to the next two signals. See the chart carefully.
Keep in mind, this is not the only signal you use when you are trading.
Now lets move onto the Signal line Crossover method. Read this carefully. Very important.
2. Signal Line Crossover:
For this method we are going to look at the small arrows I have drawn on the charts showing the up and down movements both in the MACD indicators and the price chart.
This method is preferred by most traders in crypto. It provides you more accurate timing compared to the previous method.
It is very simple. We get a buy signal when MACD line (Blue) crosses the signal line (Orange) from below to above. Basically in the bullish direction. Similarly, we get a sell signal when MACD line (Blue) crosses below the signal line (Orange). From this method, we will get an early signal compared to the previous method we discussed. This will give us better and accurate results.
Continue reading below.....
HOW TO FIND DIVERGENCE WITH MACD!!Every time that we are looking for Support and Resistance, we are always wondering when will our price finally go up or down, in order not to risk your accounts, you can use the following MACD strategy and look for any price divergence.
MACD Strategy:
Fast Length: 3
Slow length: 10
Source: Close
Signal Smoothing: 16
Happy Trading!!!
Super Easy MACD & Stochastics Trading TechniqueI am fairly new to this but have been testing out this technique with stochastics and MACD and it works well for me.
Once stoch goes bullish from oversold, wait for MACD to cross and confirm a bullish trend is emerging and buy.
When we have reached a peak and it's time to sell - stoch will cross to bearish from overbought followed by MACD.
This works well with any time frame and trading pair!
Happy trading and if my technique helped you profit - feel free to donate some BTC: 17CmGuFs55TVFSC3BZbWoYkVHLMm5ko5Yg
Identifying impulse using MACD Hi fellows, MACD can be used for early indication in diverging market. MACD gives signal that price is going to change its direction very soon. If MACD shows sharp rise and fall and at the same time price forms impulse on the chart against the previous trending and diverging market then this indication can be used for change in trend direction.
Macd & A/D Education review for future references Some of you have asked about spike trading. One way I calculate future spike is by using my Fibs. I draw the height of the fib to match the height of the Macd & Accumulation/Distribution, then I draw it to the bottom of the Macd/Accumulation. You should notice that they precede each other. In other words they both end up in the same direction
Another awesome Tut - Understanding & using CRI's MACD HistogramReally fun Tut session and another really cool chart to post on the board. Today we specifically looked at CRI's modified MACD Histogram momentum study. How did it come about, what's its purpose and how to use it in your daily trade setups.
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