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Futures

Advanced Analysis Of SPX500 Using Fibonacci, Channels, & MoreTo continue to expand your learning experiences and to see what I do in the background (trying to figure out advanced price theory and Fibonacci secrets), I created this video to share some of my work. The idea is for you to watch and learn - trying to pick out what you see as valuable and possibly sparking some insights into advanced Technical Analysis concepts. Fibonacci Price Theory is the basis for almost all of my work. But price channels, price action, cross-market analysis, and multi-timeframe analysis are all part of what I use to determine probable outcomes - and I'm still wrong sometimes. I see trading/investing is "the attempt to use your best judgment to move probability onto your side related to trade actions." After you have reasonably attempted to use your best abilities to determine the "smart trade", the next stage is determining allocation (how much you want to trade). Remember, the easiest way to accomplish this is to focus on your RISK levels. If you have a 3% risk on a trade, figure that risk level out as real dollars - then as yourself if you are comfortable risking that amount of money on the trade. Again, this may be a bit more advanced than you are ready for, but I'm trying to build on the basics of trend channels, basic Fibonacci Price Theory, and more. The deeper you get, the deeper it goes. Visit my profile to see all my videos and learn how I attempt to identify future price trends (I read the charts and see the data). Plus, I pay attention to historical price trends and cycles. How you enjoy.
FX:SPX500Education
by BradMatheny
A Simple Method Of Evaluating Trade Setups For Everyone - IIIMore examples of trade setups and how I use my custom algos to help identify stronger trade opportunities from other symbols. In this example, near the end of this video, I review the QLD chart (Daily) which provides a very clear example of major trend vs. intermediate trend. It is very important trader learn to see these opportunities from all aspects. Please pay very close attention to the details I'm sharing related to trading concepts and theory. I'm trying to teach all of you to see charts in a different way. See PRICE as the driver of trends, and counter-trends, as Fibonacci Price Theory describes. Basic Rules of Fibonacci Price Theory: 1. Price is ALWAYS seeking new highs or new lows - ALWAYS. 2. Failure to establish a new high means price will attempt to retest/break recent/new lows. 3. Ultimate HIGH/LOW levels are critical to understanding major trends vs. intermediate trends. 4. If you have trouble identifying a clear trend on a Daily chart, try Weekly or 240 min as an alternative. 5. If you still can't identify trend clearly, wait it out. Price will ALWAYS attempt to make new highs/lows. Sometimes, you have to be patient and wait for consolidation trends to work themselves out. My objective is to show you how I look at charts and identify trade opportunities. Simply put, I just trying to help you see and understand simple TA theories and to help you learn to identify great trade opportunities. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:QLDEducation
by BradMatheny
A Simple Method Of Evaluating Trade Setups For Everyone - IIThis second video reinforces the concepts supporting my simple method of validating or invalidating trade setups using price channels, Fibonacci price theory, Stochastics, RSI, and simple price metrics. Anyone can do this - it just takes a little patience and learning. The trick to the ENTRY is to WAIT to see how price reacts near support/resistance. REJECTION is very important in terms of seeing price REJECT near the price channels and near support/resistance. Learn to use these techniques to help you learn to become a better trader. Hope you enjoy.
NYSE:FEducation
by BradMatheny
How to avoid the risk of futures trading and increase the winninI sorted out the principles of this long BTC trading strategy. This is a trading system with a high winning rate that I often use. It is very simple and practical. I will share it with you now, hoping to help you. As we all know, the risk of futures trading is very high. If you are a novice, then you are prone to failure. Liquidation and asset zeroing are common things. In severe cases, you may even screw up your life. This is very common for most novices. So how do we change this state of affairs? First of all, we must improve our trading capabilities by working hard to learn various professional knowledge. The second is to use small funds to start to practice and accumulate experience slowly. Of course, this is a very long process. We need to maintain enough patience, not give up because of one or more failures, and not affect our mentality because of market fluctuations. We must always maintain a stable state of mind to learn and practice. Then someone will ask, what if I don’t have enough patience? What if I don’t have much time to keep learning and practicing to improve myself? If you belong to this situation, without your own trading system, then failure will often accompany you until you leave the futures trading market forever as a loser. Or you choose to strictly implement the trading strategies of professionals. miro.medium.com Instructions for the entire trading process, you only need to execute The first thing we think of when doing futures trading is not to make money, but how to keep the principal! This is very important. Only under the premise of keeping the principal can we be qualified to seize more opportunities. Can’t have too much FOMO If you follow the trading strategy of the wolf king, then you have to choose to believe and reduce hesitation to improve efficiency. In the process of following, your trading ability will definitely be improved. Below is my RSI trading system: RSI 4 times cycle contrarian principle In a down (up) trend Only when the RSI reaches the overbought (sell) zone And retrace the 50 position (sometimes it will retrace to the opposite oversold area) Only when it breaks through overbought (sell) again will it consider doing a counter-trend Reversal. You can look for the inverse principle Open long positions, but don’t be too greedy to hold them for a long time. The reverse principle can only obtain short-term profits. There are many people who are good at opening positions, but few are good at closing positions. Because people are greedy, this requires us to act against our inner thoughts, which is undoubtedly very difficult. RSI trend-following strategy In a downtrend, the k-line must be below ema50 When the first time the oversold area is touched, it means that the trend has started, and then go short at each retracement support resistance position As mentioned above, we will find that the success rate of going long against the trend is much lower than the success rate of shorting following the trend, so only when we successfully form an N-shape against the trend and stand above ema50 will we consider doing long. This is also the reason why I drew the N-type path when simulating the trajectory of BTC. Note that the RSI contrarian trading strategy is suitable for shock range trading and harmonic trading. If you think this article can help you, please like and share it.👍💕 If you want to find Wolf King to help you improve your trading ability, please click on the profile of Wolf King.👀
Education
by wolf_king888
Trend following trading strategy (works on all markets)This strategy is a trend following strategy to be applied when the market is uptrending. It demonstrates the significance of breakout levels which are very often retested prior to continuation to the upside. For Trend visualisation, 10, 20 and 50 Moving averages are used. If you apply ONLY this setup and and nothing else, you will have a statistical edge and be consistently profitable! All other info is on the chart. Good luck!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by NQunlocked
1
Inside Futures Trading: Key Lessons from My Years of ExperienceIn my years as a futures trader, I've learned valuable lessons. I'd like to share these insights with you, hoping to help you navigate the complex world of futures trading. The Importance of a Plan A well-structured trading plan stands as the cornerstone of successful futures trading. Like a roadmap, it navigates your journey through the often turbulent market conditions, providing clear guidance on your trading activities. It helps outline your specific trading goals and defines the strategy to achieve them. Whether you aim for short-term profits or long-term investments, a trading plan ensures your objectives align with your financial situation and risk tolerance, thereby averting overambitious goals that could lead to increased risk. Furthermore, a solid trading plan encompasses your risk management strategy. This safety net is crucial in protecting your capital from significant downturns. Determining the level of risk you're comfortable with, often based on your financial situation and risk appetite, forms a key aspect of this strategy. Besides, your plan should provide explicit criteria for entering and exiting trades, eliminating impulsive, emotion-driven decisions. Such a plan, therefore, operates as a comprehensive framework that synchronizes your trading activities with your financial goals, risk profile, and market understanding. Over-Expectation and High-Risk Bets A common pitfall I've witnessed in many traders, especially those just starting out, is the temptation to make substantial profits with a single trade. This approach often involves placing a small amount, say $100, with low leverage, and expecting it to yield significantly high returns, even double the initial investment, in one trade. This aspiration, while alluring, is fraught with high risks and often overlooks the fundamental principle of market volatility. The likelihood of an asset's value doubling in a short timeframe is generally low unless the market conditions are extraordinarily favorable. Furthermore, while leverage can amplify profits, it can also magnify losses, increasing the risk of liquidation. It's important to note that futures trading is not a scheme to get rich quickly but a strategic financial activity that requires prudent planning, risk management, and realistic expectations. Patience and consistent smaller wins can often lead to more reliable, long-term profitability. Over-expectation can lead to an increased risk appetite, causing one to disregard safety measures like stop-loss orders and prudent leverage, making their position highly vulnerable to market volatility. Remember, in futures trading, managing risks and preserving your capital is as crucial as making profits. The goal should be long-term sustainability in the market rather than short-lived, high-risk gains. The Dangers of Overtrading In my initial trading years, I subscribed to the notion that more trades equated to more profits. However, I soon discovered that this belief led to overtrading, which increased my costs and risk exposure. Overtrading occurs when one trades excessively, often reacting to minor market fluctuations. This approach not only amplifies trading costs but also elevates the risk of encountering losing trades. A better strategy I've found is to focus on the quality of trades rather than the quantity, ensuring each trade is well-reasoned and supported by robust market analysis. Risk Management is Key The significance of risk management in successful futures trading cannot be overstated. It is the safety net that can cushion you from inevitable market downturns and unexpected volatility. Without proper risk management strategies, a single unfavorable trade could potentially inflict considerable damage to your trading capital. In practical terms, effective risk management involves setting stop-loss orders to limit potential losses on each trade. It also means not risking too much capital on any single trade, regardless of how promising it might seem. Keeping risks within manageable limits preserves your trading capital and ensures your survival in the trading arena, despite the inevitable setbacks. Be Careful with Leverage In futures trading, leverage is a powerful tool that can enhance potential profits but also amplify losses. It provides the ability to control substantial positions with only a fraction of the investment typically required. However, it's crucial to remember that leverage is a double-edged sword. Leverage can magnify gains when the market moves in your favor, turning a small investment into a substantial return. However, the market can also move against your position. In such cases, the same leverage that amplifies your gains can intensify your losses. Losses can even exceed the initial investment, leading to margin calls and possibly the liquidation of your position. Consequently, I've found it prudent to use leverage judiciously and to never risk more than I can afford to lose. Understand the Underlying Asset One of the key components in futures trading is the underlying asset of the contract. The value of a futures contract is inherently derived from this asset, which can range from commodities like gold or oil to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Understanding the intricacies of the underlying asset is pivotal for making informed trading decisions. It involves scrutinizing its historical performance, the factors influencing its price movements, and its potential future trends. This knowledge can provide crucial insights into the asset's volatility, helping traders formulate effective strategies and manage potential risks. Researching and continually staying updated about the asset you're trading is not just a recommended practice; it's a necessity. It equips you with the essential information required to navigate the ebbs and flows of the market, potentially turning uncertainties into profitable opportunities. The Value of Stop-Loss Orders Stop-loss orders play an instrumental role in prudent risk management within futures trading. They function as automated safeguards designed to close out a trade when the price moves against your position to a pre-defined extent. Utilizing stop-loss orders allows you to establish the maximum amount you are willing to lose on a particular trade, providing a degree of certainty in an inherently uncertain market. It effectively mitigates the potential impact of adverse market movements, protecting your trading capital from substantial losses. From my experience, using stop-loss orders is not just a recommendation—it's an essential trading practice. Avoiding the Pitfall of Chasing the Market Another invaluable lesson I've learned over the years pertains to the timing of market entry. Many traders fall into the trap of entering a trade after a trend has already been well established—a practice known as 'chasing the market.' Chasing the market can often lead to buying high and selling low, which is the antithesis of profitable trading. This happens because once a trend is firmly established, it's likely closer to its end than its beginning. Jumping onto a fast-moving trend in the hope of riding it further can result in entering the market at an unfavorable price point. Instead, it's more effective to develop a strategy that allows you to identify potential trends early and enter the market at a more advantageous time. The key here is patience and discipline, waiting for the right market conditions before committing your capital. By not chasing the market, you can avoid costly mistakes and enhance your trading performance. Cut Losses Short One of the toughest yet most valuable lessons I've learned is the necessity to cut losses short. It's a human tendency to hold onto losing positions in the hope that they'll rebound. However, in futures trading, this approach can lead to substantial losses. A losing trade is not just a financial setback—it can also impose a psychological burden. Hoping for a market reversal when stuck in a losing position can cloud your judgment, causing you to overlook other potentially profitable trades. It's crucial to accept that not all trades will be winners, and knowing when to exit is as important as knowing when to enter. Trade with the Trend Predicting the market can be alluring, but it often results in entering trades against the trend. Over time, I've realized that it's usually more beneficial to trade with the trend. After all, 'the trend is your friend' is a well-known adage in trading for a reason. Trends have a propensity to continue for longer than expected, and trading against them can be perilous. Recognizing and trading in the direction of the prevailing trend can increase the likelihood of successful trades. It reduces the chances of being caught on the wrong side of the market and enhances the potential for consistent profits. Keep Records Maintaining records of your trades is an essential practice for ongoing learning and improvement. A detailed trading journal allows you to review your past trades, identify recurring mistakes, and refine your strategy accordingly. Keeping track of each trade, including the reasons for entering and exiting, the profit or loss, and any relevant market conditions, can provide valuable insights. It creates a feedback loop for self-improvement, promoting conscious trading decisions and encouraging disciplined trading. In conclusion, futures trading is a challenging yet rewarding endeavor that demands careful planning, disciplined risk management, and relentless learning. The lessons I've shared from my years of trading are by no means exhaustive, but they provide a solid foundation for anyone embarking on their futures trading journey. That being said, learning never stops in the world of trading. If you've come across any valuable lessons or insights that I've not covered in this discussion, please feel free to share them in the comments. It's through our collective experiences that we all become better traders.
Education
by ShawnMCR
29
CFD,FUTURES,OPTIONS. WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE ?🔷CFD Contacts Contract for Difference is referred to as CFD. It is a type of financial contract that enables traders to make predictions about price changes in a variety of underlying assets, such as indices, equities, and commodities, without actually holding such assets. A contract for difference (CFD) is an arrangement between two parties, usually a trader and a broker, to exchange the variation in the value of an underlying asset between the opening and closing dates of the contract. The trader will make money if the asset's price rises during that time; if it falls, they will lose money. Compared to traditional trading methods, CFD trading has a number of benefits, including cheaper transaction costs, the option to trade on leverage, and the opportunity to profit from both rising and falling markets. It does, however, come with dangers, including those related to leverage and market volatility, which, if not effectively managed, can cause large losses. It is significant to remember that not all nations permit CFD trading, and local restrictions may differ. Before beginning CFD trading, traders should speak with their broker and get professional assistance. Advantages: 1:High Leverage: CFD trading offers high leverage, which means that traders can control a larger position with a smaller investment. This can potentially result in larger profits. 2:Access to Various Markets: CFD trading provides access to a wide range of markets, such as stocks, indices, commodities, and currencies, allowing traders to diversify their portfolio and take advantage of different trading opportunities. 3:No Ownership of the Underlying Asset: CFD trading allows traders to speculate on the price movements of an underlying asset without actually owning it. This means that traders can benefit from the price movements of an asset without incurring the costs associated with owning it. 4:Short Selling: CFD trading allows traders to profit from falling markets by selling the asset short, which is not possible in traditional trading. 5:Lower Transaction Costs: CFD trading involves lower transaction costs compared to traditional trading methods, such as buying and selling stocks through a broker. Disadvantages: 1:High Risk: CFD trading is associated with high risk due to the high leverage and market volatility. Traders can potentially lose more than their initial investment. 2:Complexity: CFD trading involves complex financial instruments, which can be difficult for new traders to understand. 3:Limited Regulation: CFD trading is not regulated in all jurisdictions, which can expose traders to unscrupulous brokers and fraudulent activities. 4:Overnight Financing Charges: CFD trading involves overnight financing charges, which can eat into a trader's profits if positions are held for an extended period. 5:Counterparty Risk: CFD trading involves counterparty risk, which means that traders are exposed to the financial stability of their broker. If the broker goes bankrupt, the trader may lose their investment. 🔷Futures Contacts Financial contracts known as futures contracts allow two parties to buy or sell an underlying asset at a fixed price and later date. A commodity, currency, stock index, or other financial instrument could be the underlying asset. On regulated markets like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) or the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures contracts are standardized and exchanged. The exchanges serve as go-betweens between buyers and sellers and offer a clear trading environment for futures contracts. A futures contract's buyer commits to buying the underlying asset at a predetermined price and later date. On the other side, the seller consents to provide the underlying asset at the agreed-upon cost and time. Traders and investors utilize futures contracts for hedging or speculative objectives. By fixing a price for future delivery, hedges use futures contracts to guard against changes in the underlying asset's price. Conversely, investors utilize futures contracts to profit from changes in the price of the underlying item without really holding it. Advantages: 1:Price Discovery: Futures trading provides a transparent and efficient marketplace for discovering the price of the underlying asset, which benefits traders and investors. 2:Liquidity: Futures contracts are highly liquid and traded on organized exchanges, which makes it easier to enter and exit positions at any time. 3:Standardization: Futures contracts are standardized, which means that they have a uniform size, settlement date, and other specifications. This allows traders to easily compare prices and make informed trading decisions. 4:Hedging: Futures contracts are commonly used by producers and consumers of commodities to hedge against price fluctuations. By locking in a price for future delivery, they can reduce their exposure to price risk. 5:Leverage: Futures contracts offer high leverage, which allows traders to control a large position with a relatively small amount of capital. This can potentially result in significant profits. Disadvantages: 1;High Risk: Futures trading is associated with high risk due to the high leverage and market volatility. Traders can potentially lose more than their initial investment. 2:Complexity: Futures trading involves complex financial instruments, which can be difficult for new traders to understand. 3:Margin Calls: Futures trading requires traders to maintain a certain level of margin in their trading account. If the account falls below this level, traders may receive a margin call and be required to deposit additional funds or close out positions. 4:Counterparty Risk: Futures trading involves counterparty risk, which means that traders are exposed to the financial stability of their broker. If the broker goes bankrupt, the trader may lose their investment. 5:Market Manipulation: Futures markets can be subject to market manipulation, which can distort prices and harm traders and investors. It is important for traders to be aware of this risk and to monitor market conditions closely. 🔷Options Contacts Financial arrangements known as option contracts between two parties grant the buyer the right, but not the duty, to purchase or sell the underlying asset at a defined price and date in the future. A stock, commodity, money, or other financial instrument could be the underlying asset. Call options and put options are the two basic categories of option contracts. In contrast to put options, which offer the buyer the right to sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price, calls give the buyer the right to purchase the underlying asset at a predetermined price. On regulated markets like the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) or the International Securities Exchange (ISE), option contracts are exchanged. The exchanges serve as go-betweens between buyers and sellers and offer a clear trading environment for option contracts. Traders and investors utilize option contracts for hedging or speculating objectives. Hedgers use option contracts to hedge against changes in the underlying asset's price, whereas speculators use them to profit from changes in the asset's price without actually holding it. Option trading is highly risky and necessitates a solid trading plan. Before engaging in option trading, it's critical for traders and investors to understand the dangers involved. Advantages: 1:Limited Risk: Buying options contracts limits the potential loss to the premium paid for the contract, while selling options contracts can also limit the potential loss to a certain extent. 2:High Potential Returns: Options contracts offer high leverage, which allows traders to control a large position with a relatively small amount of capital. This can potentially result in significant profits. 3:Flexibility: Options contracts provide traders with a high degree of flexibility, as they can be used for a variety of trading strategies, including hedging and speculation. 4:Hedging: Options contracts can be used to hedge against price fluctuations of the underlying asset. By buying put options or selling call options, traders can reduce their exposure to price risk. 5:Variety: Options contracts are available on a wide range of underlying assets, including stocks, commodities, currencies, and indexes. This allows traders to take advantage of different market conditions and diversify their portfolio. Disadvantages: 1:High Risk: Options trading is associated with high risk due to the high leverage and market volatility. Traders can potentially lose more than their initial investment. 2:Complexity: Options trading involves complex financial instruments, which can be difficult for new traders to understand. 3:Time Decay: Options contracts have an expiration date, after which they become worthless. This means that traders need to be correct about the direction of the underlying asset and the timing of the price movement. 4:Margin Requirements: Options trading requires traders to maintain a certain level of margin in their trading account. If the account falls below this level, traders may receive a margin call and be required to deposit additional funds or close out positions. 5:Illiquid Markets: Options contracts on less popular underlying assets may have low trading volume and liquidity, which can make it difficult to enter or exit positions at desired prices
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
$BTCUSD SOPR, BFX Longs and Shorts, Greed, Liquidations. This is one of the multi-chart evolving dashboards I use daily for crypto trading. This dashboard attempts to distill a broad scope of data and sentiment into glance value charts. The goal with such dashboards is to seek to stack probabilities to be on the right side of the percentages in every trade. -- The top panel chart shows the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio, (grey line, using the symbol $BTC_SOPR) overlay vs $BTCUSDT (Binance, in blue). The SOPR is a very simple indicator. It is the spent outputs expressed as a ratio and shown as an oscillator on the chart. The Bitcoin SOPR is the realised dollar value divided by the dollar value at creation of the output. Or simply: price sold divided by price paid. SOPR showing under value 1 means that the on chain data has recorded a net realised loss for "spent" Bitcoin. SOPR showing over value 1 means net profit. Renato Shirakashi appears to be the inventor of SOPR for BTC, and he writes about SOPR: "In this analysis two important psychological turning points that significantly change the supply of bitcoin are going to be described by introducing a new oscillating indicator that signals when these major supply changes occur, using blockchain data." I interpret this reference to the psychology of "weak hands" getting flushed out of the market by selling at a loss as shown when SOPR sits below 1 for extended periods of time (bear), and when all the weak hands have left the market, we find a bottom. Because I am an impatient learner, I needed further examples to understand fully. If someone sells you 1 Bitcoin at $50,000USD, that transaction is recorded on the blockchain. If you then sell it for $25,000USD, that is now a spent output which is obviously a negative 0.5 ratio, and would contribute to a SOPR lower than the value 1. Interestingly the SOPR tends to be very close to the value 1 nearly always. Which means that the aggregated data of all spent outputs is nowhere near as extreme as the example I gave (although I'm sure there are plenty of retail traders who bought the high and sold the bottom at a 50% loss). If we rewind to extended periods of low points in the SOPR ratio, extended negative ratio periods coincide with low points. In the past 5 years the lowest ratio was around 0.88, which was December 2018, when the price of Bitcoin was heading lower than $4k USD. That particularly brutal bear market lasted 18 months and you can see that the SOPR was below value 1 for nearly the entire time, indicating that there was a long tail of weak hands realising losses the entire time. --- Also present on the top chart is a brilliant little free indicator called Liq.Levels , wtf is all I can say, this a masterpiece of long/short liquidation data based on market maker behaviour in this case Binance's perpetual BTC/USDT leveraged futures (one of the most active retail leverage platforms). On this layout I have hidden all but the 25x liquidation points both short and long as it captures the widest spread and for the simplest visual as this is a glance-dashboard, on a single panel layout you can view the 50x and 100x which are tighter spreads. Liq.Levels also filters for a minimum of one million USD, so this is real value the market makers are getting out of bed for, essentially these levels are where the market maker really wants to push the price to. If you're new to leverage (don't do it! just buy at spot!), the reason they do this is to hunt the longs and the shorts and cause maximum liquidations (are you still trading with leverage?!). --- The second panel is the famous Bitfinex Longs (green) and Shorts (red) . You can see currently the longs, since around the $39000 level went parabolic. The shorts are just tiny in comparison. The data from Bitfinex seems less erratic than those from other exchanges, so if you find looking at longs and shorts ratios useful, I'd suggest also looking at other websites to see the other major exchange long and short activity, liquidations, and ratios. This info is used to monitor large moves by leveraged traders. While Bitfinex is not the best measure here (ideally you would want all major exchanges aggregated longs vs shorts, but I have not found such indicators on TV, only Bitfinex), you can check the data by comparing it to another exchange, for example Binance you can see that parabolic move the Longs made from the 11th of July to around the 14th of July (while the BTC price fell off a cliff from $30k to $20k), where the ratio of Longs vs Shorts on Binance also skewed heavily to the Long side. This is another way to stack a probability. As the Longs level off and get flushed out (usually by mass liquidation!), this is another variable to find support or resistance. For example you can see the levelling off around 12 May 2022, Bitcoin's price found a short term bottom at $29k. Similarly and most recently you can see as the Longs levelled off from a hectic run up in the mid June 2022 selloff, the price found a short term bottom around $20k. You could say that recently or commonly this is a contrarian indicator, assuming that smart money is seeking to liquidate the maximum possible leveraged positions, so we can assume that generally these leveraged retail traders will largely make incorrect bets most of the time, hence historically as soon as Shorts leave the market, the price spikes up, and vice versa. So, another thing to watch. --- Next we have a Crypto Fear & Greed Index , which as you can see nearly always oscillates in a tight rhythm with Bitcoin's price action. Above 75 (green dotted line) is extreme greed, below 25 (red dotted line) extreme fear. There are quite a few websites that attempt to measure crypto Fear & Greed, and even a variety of different indicators on TradingView, but this was the clearest visually I could find here. The inputs on this version according to the coder are stable coin flows (flight to safety), coin momentum (top 18 coin price relative to 30 day averages), and top 18 coin price high over the previous 90 days. So, it's interesting that despite this being at face value a rather complicated set of data with many inputs, that it just looks like a carbon copy of the Bitcoin chart. Bitcoin has a gravity that is inescapable for all things crypto right now. The difference between looking at this indicator and simply looking at Bitcoin's chart is that it flattens out the action and has a set floor and a ceiling. You can see historically that the best buy times were when fear was at its "height" (where the yellow line is at its lowest). Another way to stack probabilities. At time of writing, is this a great time to buy? Fear appears to be leaving the market, we haven't had a commensurate price move up, so I'd be cautious. Like all these indicators, you can just overlay Bitcoin's price line and backtest the correlation in a few seconds. Buying when fear is at a maximum is usually easier said than done, though! --- Lastly we have Liquidations by Volume , as per the coder this "shows actual liquidations on a per-candle basis by using the difference in volume between spot and futures markets." Blue line is futures volumes, yellow are spot volumes. The code for this indicator shows that it is the same BTCUSDT Perpetual Future's contract from Binance that we have in the Liq.Levels indicator, perfect. Worth noting is that the community of coders at TradingView is a trader's dream. These sorts of customisable dashboards you can build are high value. Having worked for the largest international institutions I find many of these indicators are institutional grade and they have just a few hundred users sometimes, pretty crazy how early in the adoption curve we are with this. If you haven't experienced the "other side" of trading, compared to regular equities forex futures etc the TradingView tools and the crypto data and exchanges are just lightyears ahead. Back to why look at liquidations? As institutions come into the market, and retail wallets on exchanges like Binance and many others continue to use leverage, the action in the derivative (in this case $BTCUSDTPERP) can and often does drive the price of the underlying. Market makers hunt the maximum liquidations, always. The market context is highly relevant here. During volatile periods it is a swinging contrarian indicator. If there has been massive green bars showing short liquidations pushing the price up, then we could be forming/hitting resistance levels and can see reversal/selloffs, and vice versa if there are massive red bars showing long liquidations pushing the price down, this can be hammering out support levels and we look to bounce. The longs and the shorts really do seem to be taking turns getting liquidated right now. Also of relevance is the price action relative to the liquidations. Obviously if an institutional candle pushes the price up or down, there will be mass liquidations. But another scenario that occurs is when are light volumes on the derivatives such as $BTCUSDTPERP we have under the microscope here, but we have large Bitcoin price movements, then the reasons for the move can be understood differently, and we can use this and other contexts to draw conclusions such as for example a scenario where price goes up with light liquidations and derivative action, which could be interpreted as much stronger hands holding coins rather than simply margin calls. --- Good luck!
BEducation
by dreamalittle
10
Five Reasons and Six Ways to Invest in Gold"Gold is money. Everything else is credit.", said John Pierpont Morgan. When borrowers default, markets collapse and banks run into crisis, gold prices skyrocket. Gold is trading at a 12-month high on March 18th. Gold has been valued for thousands of years. Gold has unique properties. It has been enchanting women and men since humans set foot on the planet. Polycrisis. That aptly describes the current times. The US regional bank crisis haunts markets. Credit Suisse - the bank to the wealthiest was so frail that Swiss National Bank had to step in to provide liquidity backstop. Regulators worked over the weekend to broker an acquisition by UBS to prevent a banking crisis from spreading. Inflation is raging hot at levels unseen in 40+ years. Compounding Chair Powell's quagmire, the US Fed has been forced to switch from QT to QE by providing support to its regional banks from collapsing under crisis of confidence. Geo-politics remains tricky. In times of crisis, investors seek flight to safety. Safest of all assets since civilisation began has been gold. This educational piece provides an overview of (a) physical gold market dynamics, (b) largest holders of gold reserves, and (c) gold price behaviour against other asset classes. It also describes five primary reasons for investing in gold, contrasts six methods of doing so, and highlights the downsides of holding gold. PHYSICAL GOLD DYNAMICS Gold performs multiple functions. It is a currency to some. Store of wealth to others. It is an industrial metal used in consumer electronics. The rich love gold in clothing and food. A bird's eye view of physical gold can be summarily described in three parts: 1. Consumers : Gold is used in consumer electronics due to its high conductivity and low corrosive properties. Gold used as industrial metal represents 6%-8% of total demand. Unsurprisingly, >50% of global gold demand is for jewellery. Jewellery is a multi-tasker. It meets aesthetic goals, serves as a status symbol while also being a form of investment. 2. Gold Reserves : Central banks hold gold as reserves. They are the most significant holders of gold. The haven nature of gold compels central banks to increase holdings during economic uncertainty, high inflation, or currency devaluation. Central Banks added >382 tonnes to their reserves in 2022. 3. Producers : Gold mining is a cyclical industry. Mining output has been in decline over the past decade as major gold producers shift to mining minerals and other metals like copper with the proliferation of lithium-ion batteries in EVs. Gold mining took a huge output hit during the pandemic and may not recover any time soon as capital expenditure into new gold mines is limited. GOLD RESERVES - THE MOVERS AND SHAKERS According to the World Gold Council, as of end 2022, central banks in Western European (11.8k tons) have the largest gold reserves followed by North Americans (8.1k tons), Central & Eastern Europeans (3.5k tons), and East Asians (3.4k tons). Last year, central banks of Turkey, China, Egypt, Qatar, and Uzbekistan were the largest buyers of gold. FIVE REASONS WHY GOLD SHOULD BE IN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS Gold is a resilient store of wealth, provides meaningful portfolio diversification, has limited price volatility, extends benefits of hedge against inflation & currency debasement, and is limited in supply. 1. Resilient Store of Wealth Gold outperforms equities during periods of economic instability. Due to its material properties and scarcity, it can even become more valuable during such periods as investors seek shelter in classic risk-off assets such as gold. 2. Portfolio Diversification Gold can have both positive and negative correlation with other asset classes during different periods. This makes it an attractive addition to a diversified portfolio. 3. Limited Volatility Due to its large market size and diverse supply origins, gold is less volatile than equities and other asset classes making it a safer asset class for investors. 4. Inflation Hedge Gold is often seen as an inflation hedge. Which means that it can maintain its value or appreciate during periods of high inflation due to its scarcity and safety. However, in some cases monetary policy changes like interest rate hikes may make gold a less attractive investment compared to treasury yields during inflationary periods. 5. Limited in supply Gold is a finite resource, that too, one of the rarest precious metals in the world. Moreover, more than 200,000 tonnes of gold have already been dug up. This represents more than half of the total reserves. The gold that is yet to be mined is much more difficult to extract economically. Scarcity creates rarity, which in turn drives the value of the existing gold higher. Many governments, banks, and people also use gold as a long-term investment, which means a huge portion of the gold supply is taken out of circulation, shrinking available supply even more. SIX WAYS OF INVESTING IN GOLD There are multiple ways of investing in gold. Six primary ones are: 1. Physical Gold : Gold can be bought and stored in the form of jewellery or gold bars. Costs of storage, insurance and making charges can be substantial and also inconvenient. Investing in physical gold is not optimal for reasons of poor convenience and higher transaction costs. 2. Gold ETF : Exposure to gold can also be acquired through buying exchange traded funds (ETF) backed by physical gold. There are multiple ETFs that track physical gold prices. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) was the pioneer and began trading in 2004. It has an expense ratio of 0.4% and tracks gold bullion prices. GLD holds both physical gold bullion and cash. GLD provides a liquid lower-cost method to buy and hold gold. Gold can be bought and sold during the trading day at market price. Investors must pay heed to taxation as gains from ETFs in some jurisdictions can be treated differently compared to other forms of gold. 3. Gold Futures : CME’s COMEX Gold futures is the world’s most liquid derivatives which enables capital efficient exposure to Gold. With round the clock liquidity, tight bid-ask spread and benefits of a cleared contract, investing through COMEX Gold futures is widely popular. Each lot of COMEX Gold Futures provides exposure to 100 oz of Gold. Enabling affordable access to investors and to facilitate accurate granular hedging, CME also offers Micro Gold Futures. Each lot of Micro Gold contract provides exposure to 10 oz of Gold. 4. Gold Options : CME also offers options on Gold Futures. Gold options is a useful investing and hedging tool. Using options, investors can lock in unlimited upside potential of price moves while limiting the adverse impact of downside price moves. 5. Shares of Gold Producers : Gold mining is an international business. Gold is mined on every continent except Antarctica. Top gold miners include Newmont (USA), Barrick (Canada), Anglogold Ashanti (South Africa), Kinross (Canada), Gold Fields (South Africa), Newcrest (Australia), Agnica Eagle (Canada), Polyus (Russia), Polymetal (Russia), and Harmony (South Africa). As is evident from the chart above, investing in gold miners for exposure to gold is a poor proxy as most of them have underperformed relative to gold prices. Furthermore, FX exposures must be hedged separately for some stocks which trade in emerging markets. In summary, securing gold exposure through miners is not optimal relative to other alternatives. 6. Gold CFDs : CFDs also known as contract for differences allows for synthetic access to the price of spot gold. These CFDs are OTC derivatives contracts which carry non-trivial counterparty risk with investors being exposed to the credit risk of the CFD provider. The table below summarises the merits of various gold investment instruments across key investment attributes. GOLD TOO HAS ITS DOWNSIDES Gold is a non-yielding asset. Shares of profitable companies pay dividends. Holding debt earns interest. Real estate delivers rents. But gold provides zero yield. For every problem, innovation in markets provides a solution. In a future paper, Mint Finance will demonstrate how gold can be transformed into a yield generating asset. Rising interest rates are headwinds to gold. As rates on treasury, bonds and deposits rise, investors rotate their money out of gold and into yield generating assets. Not only is gold non-yielding, but the returns also fade into insignificance relative to gains from innovation. In times of crisis, gold is a great hedge. However, while positioning portfolios for the long term, investors must astutely balance between safety versus growth. GOLD RETURNS IN RELATION TO OTHER ASSET CLASSES 1. US Equities and Emerging Markets Gold outperforms equities during periods of crisis. During equity bull runs, gold underperforms equities. Cumulatively, over the last 20 years, Gold has outperformed Dow Jones, S&P 500, and MSCI Emerging Markets. Only Nasdaq, which represents tech, innovation and growth has surpassed gold returns. 2. Treasuries with 2-Year and 10-Year Maturities Unsurprisingly, when sovereign risks rise and treasury yields fall to zero, gold shines. Between two non-yielding assets, investors prefer to take shelter in gold as a preferred haven. However, when rates rise, investors rotate out of gold and into treasuries. 3. Crude Oil, Copper, and Silver Over the last two decades, Gold has outperformed crude oil, copper, and silver. 4. Dollar Index, Bitcoin and Ethereum While US Dollar and gold are both global reserves, gold has outperformed the Dollar Index which is the value of the USD against a basket of six international currencies. However, relative to bitcoin and ethereum, gold pales into insignificance. Bitcoin is perceived as millennial gold and ethereum is the millennial oil. Both assets have obliterated gold in terms of price returns. 5. Major Currencies Over the last 3 years, as markets emerged out of the pandemic, gold has outperformed all the major currencies. Yen, under the influence of Governor Kuroda’s liberal QE program, has depreciated 63% against gold. Indian Rupee has deflated 47% while Euro and Sterling have shed 38% and 32% against gold. The US Dollar, Chinese Renminbi, and Aussie Dollar have depreciated 31%, 29% and 20% against gold, respectively. Key Takeaways Gold is money. Everything else is credit. Gold glows in crisis. It is a knight in shining armour for investors. Gold is the only asset which exhibits negative correlation. These are times of polycrisis. As investors seek flight to safety from banks even, gold is the safest among the few remaining alternatives. Gold is a resilient store of wealth, offers durable diversification within a portfolio, exhibits much lower volatility relative to equities, and serves as an inflation hedge albeit with less than a perfect record. Clients can invest in gold in multiple ways. Gold futures is the most convenient and optimal among the six alternatives. Gold has its downsides. It is a non-yielding asset and performs dismally against innovation and growth. Except for Nasdaq, bitcoin and ethereum, gold has outperformed currency majors, equity indices, US treasury, and commodities. In a future paper, Mint Finance will explore ways in which gold can be transformed into a yield generating asset. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by mintdotfinance
33
About Swing Trading - Experience Sharing Sharing my experience and thoughts on swing trading :> First of all, many people have misunderstandings about swing trading. It is not an investment but rather a speculative activity that seeks to capture opportunities and time the market. Generally, swing trades last from a few days to a few months, and trend-following strategies are the most common. . . . Here are some principles to consider for swing trading: 1. Leveraged trading is only suitable for those who can beat the market without leverage. Otherwise, it's just amplifying your losses. Beginners should start by trying without leverage. 2. Using leverage in swing trading "definitely increases the risk of bankruptcy," so you should be aware of your expected value, volatility, and the difficulties you may face in extreme situations. 3. Generally, you don't need to watch the market every day when swing trading. When you first enter the market, you may need to pay attention to stop losses, unexpected market movements, or reversals. After setting up your stop loss, you can start taking a break. I believe there are many benefits to keeping a suitable distance from the market because my initial intention for swing trading was not to let it affect my daily life. . . . Without strict control over trading strategies, clear entry and exit conditions, and capital management, people may enter and execute so-called swing trades based on subjective perceptions, guesswork, arbitrary trading volume, and contrarian orders. "I call it gambling." Before starting swing trading, you should ask yourself whether you are speculating or gambling, and recognize that short-term speculative fluctuations can result in huge gains or losses. . . . In my opinion, long-term positive expected value speculation, with a sufficient number of samples, will eventually become an investment that generates excess returns. I hope my article is helpful to you, and if you have different opinions, please leave a comment and let me know.🙂
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Eleta1228
2
Pre Market Levels are CRITICAL in Day Trading 10X Gains For MeCME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ CME_MINI:NQ1! NASDAQ:TSLA I wanted to share a basic strategy I've been using that has helped me increase my profitability almost 10X Most people don't know that when the regular trading hours (RTH) markets are closed, the futures markets are running Generally overnight action during the pre market will set a clear high and a clear low. Those key pivots are hidden support and resistance that you WILL NOT see on the normal chart. Strategy 1 - Draw the Pre Market High/Low 2 - Use the Fibonacci tool in the direction of the overnight action either Bullish or Bearish 3 - Use the 0.618 Level as the KEY Algo level where you BUY THE DIP or SELL THE RIP 4 - Rinse and repeat - Always have a stop loss at the last major pivot and scale out profits over 25% Here is a more complete video guide from a trade I took last week: www.youtube.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by tradingwarzone
3
📈 What Are the 10 Fatal Mistakes Traders Make 📉Trading is exciting. Trading is hard. Trading is extremely hard. Some say that it takes more than 10,000 hours to master. Others believe that trading is the way to quick riches. They might be both wrong. It is important to know that no matter how experienced you are, mistakes will be part of the trading process. That’s why you should be prepared to expect them and if possible not make them. Easier said than done you would say and you will be completely right. That is why I have compiled a list of trading mistakes that you should be trying to avoid. Real-life trading will show you how “easy” that could be. 1) Trading without having a predefined trading plan The first fatal trading mistake that traders make is trading with no plan. Having a written predefined trading plan will help you for two reasons. Trading depends on several aspects, which include the situation in the markets around the world, the status of overseas markets, the status of index futures such as Nasdaq 100 exchange-traded funds. Considering index futures is a wise option for evaluating the overall market conditions. Make a to-do list and build a habit of researching the market before calling your shots. This will not only keep you from taking unnecessary risks, but it will also minimize your chances of losing money. 2) Over-leveraging Over-leveraging is the second mistake of “what are the 10 fatal mistakes traders make”. Over-leveraging is a two-edged sword. In a winning streak, it could be your best friend, but when the trend changes, it becomes the greatest enemy. Recent talks about banning leverage higher than 1:50 for experienced and 1:25 for new traders in the UK have been a result of a lot of traders losing their money too fast. Whether it will happen next year or not is a matter of time for us to see. This is good news for most inexperienced traders because it will somehow limit their exposure. It will allow them to follow their money management rules easier. For greedier and more impatient traders, this is terrible news. Fortunately, this might lead to a better result in their performance in the long term, as well. Over-leveraging is a dangerous way to believe you can make more money quicker. A lot of traders are misled into this way of thinking and end up losing all their money in a short period of time. Some brokers are offering insane amounts of leverage (like 1:2000) that can lead to nothing more than oblivion. Therefore, one needs to be extremely careful when selecting those levels and the brokers that represent them. That’s why diversification among different brokers is probably the best strategy. 3) Staying glued to the screen a) Set entry rules Computer systems are more effective for the purpose of trading because they don’t have feelings about the things that go into the trading environment and they are neither emotionally attached to the factors that are in one way or the other related to trading. Moreover, computers are capable of doing more at a time as compared to mechanical traders. This is one of the several reasons that more than 50% of all trades that occur on the New York Stock Exchange are computer-program generated. A typical entry rule could be put in a sentence like this: “If signal A fires and there is a minimum target at least three times as great as my stop loss and we are at support, then buy X contracts or shares here.” Computers are more rational when it comes to taking quick decisions following a set of rules. No matter how experienced traders are, sometimes they tend to be hesitating in taking a decision no matter what their rules state. b) Set exit rules Normally, traders put 90% of their efforts into looking for buy signals, but they never pay attention to when to exit. At times, it is difficult to close a losing trade, but it is definitely wiser to take a small loss and continue looking for a new opportunity. Professional traders lose a lot of trades each day, but they manage their money and limit their losses, which leads to a profitable trading statement for them. Prior to entering a trade, you should be aware of your exits. There are at least two for every trade. First, where is your stop loss if the trade goes against you? This level must be written down. Mental stops don’t count. The second level is your profit target. Once you reach there, sell a portion of your trade and you can move your stop loss on the rest of your position to break even if you wish. As discussed above, never risk more than a set percentage of your portfolio on any trade. 4) Trying to get even or being too impatient What are the 10 fatal mistakes traders make? Rule number 4 is patience. Patience in FOREX trading eventually pays off as it allows you to sit back a bit and wait for the right trading setup. Most traders are too eager to jump in and trade whenever any opportunity arises. This is probably due to our human nature and the eagerness to make a “quick buck”. But if there is one thing that ensures a high probability of winning, it is having the patience to grasp all the necessary information before you trade. This apparently will take time as there are many factors involved in it, such as the forming of trends, trend corrections, highs, and lows. Impatience to look at these matters could result in loss of money. It could be helpful sometimes to take a break and allow oneself to have the time to look at the bigger picture, instead of focusing too much on one aspect. Remember that a single transaction might resonate in a series of future losses if executed at the wrong moment. It takes time and patience to wait for the market correction before you commit to a trade. BUT IT TAKES TIME…Some traders fail to realize that being successful will take time. They often fall prey to their own impatience in the hope of earning fast money. It could be a rough environment, and charts might be hard to read, so it is wise at times to step back in order to avoid costly mistakes. Don’t rush things out, or try to enter a trade at all costs by just following your gut. The market could be quite tricky and often does send out the wrong signals. Wait patiently for the best opportunities to align themselves and then act mercilessly. 5) Ignoring the trend “The trend is my friend“- another cliche sentence, which has helped me stay on the right side of the market for as long as I am a trader. If you think about trading the way I do, it could be a boring business, but at least one that makes money. I am not really interested in quick returns. I am not interested in penny stocks. I am not interested in the most popular trades that everyone is talking about. I like to do my own analysis. The more boring a trade looks, the better for me the trade is. Always consider the trend before placing the trade! 6) Having a bullish/bearish bias Folk wisdom says that if you throw a frog in boiling water, it will promptly jump out of it. But if you put the frog in lukewarm water and then slowly heat the water, by the time the frog realizes that the water has become boiling, it will already be too late. Studies of decision-making have proven that people are more likely to accept ethical lapses when they occur in several small steps than when they occur in one large leap. This statement also explains nicely the unfortunate process of unprofitable trading. Once you are in a losing position, you don’t realize if it slowly accumulates into a big loss. You have your own bias and it might lead you into obscurity. That is why one of the most important elements of successful trading is objectivity. It is also one of the hardest elements of mastering the field of trading. Inattentional blindness is definitely not helpful to human psychology and when it comes to trading, it could be detrimental. 7) Little preparation or lack of strategy Make sure that you close any unnecessary programs on your computer and reboot your computer before the day begins, this refreshes the cache and resident memory (RAM). Several trading systems allow you to set up the environment according to your needs, set it up in a way that allows for minimal distractions and helps you keep an eye on each in and out, alongside. Keep in mind that a flaw in the trading system can be costly. Make sure you have valid proof that your trading strategy does return positive results on a consistent basis. Do not rush into trading before that. 8) Being too emotional Trading the markets is like stepping into a battlefield- you need to be emotionally and psychologically prepared before entering the field, otherwise, you are stepping into a war zone without a sword in your hand. Make sure you have checked three things before you start trading: 1)you are calm, 2)you had a good night’s sleep, and 3) you are up for a challenge. Having a positive attitude towards trading is extremely crucial. If you are angry, preoccupied, or hung over then you are at a bigger risk of losing. Make sure you are completely relaxed before you step into the market, even if you have to take yoga classes, it is totally worth it. 9) Lacking money management skills Rule number 9 of the “What are the 10 fatal mistakes traders make” list is money management. Risking between 1% to 2% of your portfolio on a single trade is the best way to go. Even if you lose while betting on that amount you will be capable enough to trade some other day and make up for your losses. The amount of risk a trader can take is the amount he thinks he will be able to get back the next day. It is a wise option to start with a smaller amount and slowly and gradually increase the percentage. You can come back to point number 2 “Over-leveraging” and read it again. Having the right money management skills is probably one of the most important traits of a profitable trader. And of course- it is one of the most common mistakes among the losing traders. 10) Lack of record keeping Keeping records is key to being successful at trading. If you win a trade, you should note down the efforts and the reasons that pulled you towards the trade. If you lose a trade, you should keep a record of why that happened in order to avoid making the same mistakes in the future. Note down details such as targets, the exit, and entry of each trade, the time, support and resistance levels, daily opening range, market open and close for the day, and record comments about why you made the trade and lessons learned. You should save your trading records so that you can go back and analyze the profit or loss for a particular system, draw-downs (which are amounts lost per trade using a trading system), average time per trade (in order to calculate trade efficiency), and other important factors. Remember, this is a serious business and you are the accountant. CONCLUSION: What are the 10 fatal mistakes traders make?? Successful paper trading does not ensure that you will have success when you start trading real money and emotions come into play. Successful paper trading does give the trader confidence that the system they are going to use actually works. Deciding on a system is less important than gaining enough skills so that you are able to make trades without second-guessing or doubting the decision. There is no way to guarantee that a trade will return profits. This is the actual beauty of trading and being consistent is based on a trader’s skill set and his/her eagerness to improve. Keep in mind winning without losing does not exist in the world of trading. Professional traders know that the odds are in their favor before entering a trade. It is a continuous process of making more profits and cutting down losses which might not ensure a win every time, but it wins the war. Traders or investors who don’t believe in this adage are more viable to making losses. Traders who win consistently treat trading as a business. While it’s not a guarantee that you will make money, having a plan is crucial if you want to become consistently successful and survive in the trading battle.
Education
by FOREXN1
11
Trading Strategies for Capitalizing on the Volatility of OilAs financial market traders, we are always on the lookout for trading strategies that can help us capitalize on market trends and conditions. One such strategy is to take advantage of the volatility of oil prices. Oil is a valuable commodity that is subject to significant price fluctuations. There are several reasons why oil is volatile, including limited supply, high demand, geopolitical instability, and speculation. These factors can cause the price of oil to fluctuate rapidly and often unpredictably, which can create opportunities for traders who are able to anticipate and capitalize on changes in the price of oil. One way to take advantage of the volatility of oil prices is to use a trading strategy known as "contango trading." Contango trading involves buying oil futures contracts and holding them until they mature. When the price of oil is in contango (i.e. when the futures price is higher than the spot price), traders can profit by buying the futures contracts and holding them until they mature. This allows traders to take advantage of the difference between the spot price and the futures price, and can provide an attractive return on investment if the price of oil rises as expected. Another way to take advantage of the volatility of oil prices is to use a trading strategy known as "spread trading." Spread trading involves buying and selling oil futures contracts with different expiration dates. When the price of oil is volatile, the prices of different futures contracts can diverge, creating opportunities for traders to profit by buying and selling these contracts. For example, if a trader expects the price of oil to rise in the short term but fall in the long term, they may choose to buy a short-term futures contract and sell a long-term contract. If their prediction is correct, they could profit from the difference in the prices of the two contracts. Overall, the volatility of oil prices can create opportunities for traders who are able to anticipate and capitalize on changes in the price of oil. By using strategies such as contango trading and spread trading, traders can potentially profit from the volatility of oil prices and generate attractive returns on their investments. In Depth Contango Trading - This strategy is based on the expectation that the price of oil will rise over time, and it is used by traders who want to capitalize on this expected price increase. When the price of oil is in contango, it means that the futures price is higher than the spot price. For example, if the current spot price of oil is $50 per barrel, and the futures price for oil to be delivered in six months is $55 per barrel, then the price of oil is in contango. In this situation, traders who use contango trading would buy the futures contracts and hold them until they mature, hoping to profit from the expected increase in the price of oil. The profit from contango trading is the difference between the spot price and the futures price. In the example above, a trader who buys the futures contract at $55 per barrel and holds it until it matures would make a profit of $5 per barrel if the price of oil remains at $50 per barrel. If the price of oil increases above $55 per barrel, then the trader's profit would be even greater. Contango trading is a risky strategy, as it is based on the expectation that the price of oil will rise over time. If the price of oil does not rise as expected, or if it falls, then traders who use contango trading could suffer significant losses. Additionally, the volatility of oil prices means that it can be difficult to predict the direction of price changes, which can also create risks for traders who use this strategy.
FX:USOILEducation
by JoelWarby
PVP> Periodic Volume ProfileVOLUME PROFILE SECTIONS: 1> What is Volume ? 2> What are volume NODES? 3> HIGH vs LOW volume NODES 4> Value Area - $ Price Rotation 5> 3 KEY Parts of VALUE Area? “VAH” “VAL” “POC” 6> Types of “Time Per Profile” 7> 4 Common Volume Profile SHAPES - D P B b 8> How to use for ENTRY/ EXIT 9> Trade Plan - What Is That? 1. What is VOLUME when it comes to trade? It represents the number of shares/contracts of a underlying security “stock” traded between market participants called by us as Traders "buyers and sellers". Stocks > the volume it is measured by the number of shares traded. Futures/Options > the volume it is measured by the number of contracts traded. Using Volume Profile instead of it being on the X axis “bottom” of the chart it is on the Y axis “left" side horizontally. Check RED ARROW chart below. Volume profile shows us volume traded for a SPECIFIC PRICE instead of time like market profile. Two different types of profile. Every time a contract is traded the volume profile builds out to the right as more and more contracts are traded at that price. . NODES: What are nodes? When you zoom all the way in on volume profile you can see the size of each node. These price levels are called nodes and measure the amount of contracts traded within a specific price point. 3. HIGH Volume Nodes vs LOW Volume NODES. HIGH Volume Nodes: (GREEN ARROWS —> in picture below) Are were a HIGH number of contracts are traded so it is slow for price to move through these nodes sometimes. BALANCE - When there are high volume nodes it means there is balance forming and that market participants agree on a price also know as “fair value” LOW Volume Nodes: (RED ARROWS —> in picture below) Are were a LOW number of contracts are traded so it is fast for price to move through these nodes usually. IMBALANCE - When there is a market imbalance price moves very fast until it finds a “fair” value. Sometimes price will move quickly to a LOW NODE which they call vacuums so sometimes they will wick to them. (Look at where the wicks are in the picture and they are where the LOW Volume Nodes are.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by IronMan_Trader
2
Howto Day Trade Nasdaq Futures - Reversal AND Breakout Same Day!Today was an unexpectedly exciting morning to trade Nasdaq futures CME_MINI:NQ1! ! I love trading false breakouts and this morning (November 1, 2022) provided double sided action where buyers and sellers battled it out. The one to break first was going to be the winner and today it was the bears! My best strategy which I have been honing for years relies on these price spikes and today's action played out beautifully for both a reversal off the week's double top and a breakout to continue that reversal. By popular demand I am making this video demonstration to help traders learn to spot this unique price action. This action and opportunity does not come around every day but when it does it yields some Home Run wins (or as I call them... properly risk adjusted trades)!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by norok
6
Why Good News Crashes Markets"But the news wasn't that bad, why is the market falling??" When news or economic data hits the wire, markets move. Many traders are left scratching their heads, trying to come up with an explanation for why the market tanks on good news or rallies on bad news. Don't waste your time. It turns out, news is usually just a catalyst that allows momentum traders to profit off of a position they've already established, or lays the groundwork for their next trade. As an example, take the overnight session preceding this morning's PPI print. First, size traders accumulated (bought) under VWAP. Then, they drove the price up around 12am, and proceeded to distribute (sell) for a profit above VWAP. Look at where the majority of volume was transacted, the VPOC. When this moves above VWAP, it tells you distribution may be done. What happens next? Size traders have made their money for the night, and no longer provide a bid. As soon as news or data comes out, they allow price to fall and may even sell into it. And the cycle starts over again, now at an even better (lower) price. Understanding this has helped me immensely; I sincerely hope it helps you too. Questions? Hit me up in the comments.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by gr8fultrading
2
What is an ETF? (exchange traded fund) An exchange traded fund (ETF) is an investment fund that invests in a basket of stocks, bonds, or other assets. ETFs are traded on a stock exchange, just like stocks. Investors are drawn to ETFs because of their low price, tax efficiency and ease of trading. ETFs seek to provide the performance of a specified index, such as the S&P 500, and typically have low fees. Like mutual funds, ETFs offer investors diversified exposure to a portfolio of securities, such as stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate. Why are ETFs popular? While investors often associate ETFs with large stock indexes, such as the S&P 500, ETFs provide access to virtually every asset class, sector, region, theme and investment style. ETFs are popular because of their low fees, tax efficiency, liquidity and transparency. Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs. What are the benefits of ETFs? ETFs cost significantly less than comparable active mutual funds — and that savings can add up over time. Other benefits include: Access and liquidity. Because ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, they are easily bought or sold. Transparency. Just like mutual funds, ETFs report performance quarterly and fees daily. Diversification. ETFs provide access to a wide range of investment options, covering a broad range of asset classes, sectors and geographies. They also make it easy to select specific themes or investment styles. What are the risks associated with ETFs? Like mutual funds, ETFs carry investment risk depending on their asset class, strategy and region. Some ETFs are riskier than others. In addition, if you invest in an ETF that holds securities in a currency other than your own, movements in the foreign exchange rate may affect your returns.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by TopTradingSignals
6
FCPO Contract Month Watchlist TutorialThese are the steps shown in video to make FCPO Contract Month Watchlist. 1. Open FCPO1! Chart 2. Check latest contract month 3. Open Indicator 4. Search for FCPO Contract Month Table 5. Take note the latest contract month, example X 2022 6. Select X and 2022 from setting 7. Open other live chart 8. Create new watchlist 9. Set Frequency to All 10. Set alert 11. Set condition 12. Clear Alert Name 13. Click Create 14. Export alerts log to a CSV file... 15. Save csv file 16. Open csv with notepad 17. Remove necessary code 18. Save as txt extension 19. Import list 20. Done I may do other watchlist such as Sharia market, future etc. Thank you.
MYX:FCPO1!Education
by RozaniGhani-RG
1
MarketMaking and MarketMaker. What is it and who is it?All participants in financial exchanges can be divided into two categories - market makers, who set the mood in the market, and market makers, private investors with small capital. Market makers ( they are in minority ) will always manipulate market makers ( they are in majority ). What is a market maker, who he is, what he does at the exchange and why he is needed? WHO IS A MARKET MAKER AT THE STOCK EXCHANGE? This is a professional in the market with very large money, without whom trading is impossible - because this figure is considered a key player in the market and moves the price. Most often, this is the whole financial organization. MARKETMAKER is the one who creates and maintains the liquidity level of exchange , currency , cryptocurrency , futures instruments , etc. It is only possible to make transactions on the market through the market maker, who regulates the processes so that the exchange is not dominated by only sellers or buyers. The MARKETMAKER is obliged to buy even if the market is dominated by sellers and even if it leads to losses. And when the market is dominated by buyers, the market maker must sell in order to balance the market. The main purpose of the market maker is not to make money, but to regulate supply and demand, to maintain liquidity. CATEGORIES OF MARKETMAKERS Large commercial banks, but not by themselves, but united in groups: they are called institutional market makers. Brokerage companies Dealing centers Investment funds Private investors with significant capital. WHY DO WE NEED A MARKETMAKER? It stabilizes the market, controls price movements, satisfies traders' demand. And since large financial institutions take on this role, they can be both sellers and buyers. The market maker makes a huge number of deals every day and ensures the liquidity of assets. The peculiarity of their work is that market makers can support the quote both in the buy and sell direction simultaneously on the same financial instrument, which makes the price move more smoothly and price gaps disappear. TASKS OF MARKET MAKERS Ensure profitable deals for all participants To maintain sufficient liquidity for any instrument throughout the trading session To accumulate orders within the instrument being traded Find and consolidate the best price offers and record them in the price book Provide all participants with information on current quotes as soon as possible WHAT AND HOW DO MARKET MAKERS MAKE MONEY? The best way to make money on the exchange is to be able to correctly predict large price movements and timely open positions in this direction. No market maker can do it on a large scale, but a small impulse is enough to start the process of a large price movement. And for this market maker first forms a trend in the direction he needs, after which he acts in the opposite direction. Thus, the market maker makes a profit, while other participants lose more or less. Since market makers are the first to review current orders, they are the first to find out about the emergence of a trend in one direction or another and do everything necessary to balance the market and not allow a large surge of volatility. For the fact that he keeps the market price of the instrument in the predetermined limits, the market maker receives a significant discount on the commissions. And his profit is the difference between the bid and ask prices, which is called the dealing spread. Because the exchange is interested in maintaining the liquidity of assets, it encourages healthy competition and advocates the presence of several market makers on one floor. It reduces the cost of transactions, increases the speed of transactions and makes pricing transparent. Even the exchange rules often contain a clause that a deal is legal if a market maker is involved, i.e. it is quite a significant and influential market player. HOW DOES THE MARKET MAKER WORK? He establishes a connection with his clients through a program, analyzes the market and executes orders of his broker's clients. Often he prefers to work with mid-sized brokers to have the necessary volume of transactions to make money. Marketmaking. Order-Making and Order-Making. The function of Order-Making is to watch a particular company's stock and make predictions. Order-taking is to execute traders' orders and take additional profits. HOW DOES PROFIT TAKING TAKE PLACE? Like other market participants, market makers can also incur losses, which occurs if a position is chosen incorrectly. But due to the fact that market makers work with large volumes of trades and a large number of clients, they always have an opportunity to cover their losses. Regards! R.Linda!
Education
by RLinda
30
Bitcoin dominance. How does it affect the cryptocurrency market?#BTC #altcoins #dominance #education ▪️Bitcoin dominance index - is an indicator that indicates the ratio of bitcoin capitalization to the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market. ▪️How does btc dominance affect the market? - When the dominance of bitcoin falls, altcoins begin to rise - this is called the alt season! ▪️Now the dominance is at its minimum values, which means that it will soon begin to grow! Altcoins will be weak during this period of time. Bitcoin may reach $30,000 and go for a correction. So far, these are my thoughts for the near future! Subscribe. stay tuned for ideas! Links below👇
Education
by DepositLiquidator
28
Ugly Markets - Embrace the TrendsThe trend is always our best friend in markets across all asset classes. While many investors and traders waste their time interpreting the new cycle and other factors, the path of least resistance of market prices is a real-time indicator of the current sentiment. Stocks and bonds fall in Q2 Four of six commodity sectors post losses Rising interest rates and a strong dollar Economic contraction- Copper tells a story Go with the flow Market prices rise when buyers are more aggressive than sellers and fall when sellers dominate buyers. The current price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level where buyers and sellers agree on value in a transparent environment, the marketplace. The results for Q2 were ugly in most markets. Stocks and bonds fell, the dollar index rose, and four of six commodity sectors posted losses. The best performing sectors reflect the supply-side issues created by the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation. Uncertainty in markets creates price variance, and markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. As we move into the second half of 2022, uncertainty is at the highest level in years. Meanwhile, market liquidity tends to decline during the summer vacation months. Lower participation only exacerbates price variance as bids can disappear during selloffs and offers often evaporate during rallies. It is a time for caution in markets across all asset classes, but the trends on a simple price chart tell us all we need to know about the path of least resistance of prices. Stocks and bonds fall in Q2 The stock market was ugly in Q2: The DJIA fell 11.25% The S&P 500 declined 16.45% The tech-heavy NASDAQ dropped 22.45% Over the first half of 2022: The DJIA was down 15.31% The S&P 500 fell 20.58% The NASDAQ plunged 29.51% As the Fed began increasing the Fed Funds Rate and reducing its swollen balance sheet, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures fell 8.19% in Q2 and were 13.75% lower over the first half of this year as of June 30. The long bond fell below its technical support level at the October 2018 136-16 low and reached 132-09 in June before bouncing. Four of six commodity sectors post losses While the energy and animal protein sectors posted gains in Q2, base and precious metals, grains, and soft commodities moved to the downside. The quarterly results by sector were: Energy- +6.77% Animal proteins- +3.31% Gains- -3.46% Soft commodities- -4.12% Precious metals- -12.91% Base metals- -27.24% Over the first half of 2022, four of six sectors were higher than at the end of 2021: Energy- +43.86% Grains- +14.65% Animal proteins- +10.96% Soft commodities- +1.46% Precious metals - -5.43% Base metals- -13.07% The results reflect the economic and political landscapes. Energy and food prices rose as the war in Ukraine threatens the global supply chains. Metal prices declined because central bank policies and economic conditions led to rising rates and a strong US dollar. Rising interest rates and a strong dollar The US Federal Reserve blamed rising prices and inflation on “transitory” pandemic-related factors throughout most of 2021. The central bank waited far too long to address inflation and is now playing catch-up when the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions impact the global economy’s supply side. Central bank monetary policy can affect the demand-side, but they have few tools to manage supply-side shocks. The rise in energy and food and the decline in metal prices tell us that central banks are struggling to address the current economic landscape. The US 30-Year Treasury bond futures chart shows the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. While the long bond bounced from the June low, the bearish trend remains intact in early July. The US dollar index, which measures the US currency against other world reserve foreign exchange instruments, rose 6.21% in Q2 and was 9.28% higher over the first half of 2022. The dollar index settled at the 104.464 level on June 30 and rose to a new two-decade high of 107.615 on July 8. Since the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency and the pricing benchmark for most commodities, a strong dollar caused raw materials to rise in other currencies, putting downward pressure on dollar-based prices. Economic contraction- Copper tells a story The US remains the world’s leading economy. In Q1, US GDP fell, and it likely declined in Q2. The textbook definition of a recession is two consecutive quarterly GDP declines. Copper is a base metal that trades on the London Metals Exchange and the CME’s COMEX division. Copper has a long history of diagnosing the economic climate, earning it the nickname Doctor Copper. In Q1, COMEX and LME copper prices rose by around 6.5%. In Q2, they plunged, with the COMEX futures falling 21.82% and the LME forwards dropping 20.41%. COMEX and LME copper prices were down over 15% over the first half of 2022. The chart of COMEX copper futures shows the move to an all-time $5.01 per pound high in March 2022 and a decline to a low below $3.40 in early July. The descent below technical support at the August 2021 $3.98 low and nearly 30% drop as of July 8 are signs that recession is not on the horizon; it has already gripped the economy. Go with the flow Inflation remains at a four-decade high, and while raw material prices have declined, the economic condition is far higher than the current Fed Funds rate. The central bank has pledged to fight inflation with monetary policy tools. Higher interest rates could put more downward pressure on raw material prices and the stock market as the economy contracts. Time will tell if the Fed continues its hawkish path or reacts to current market conditions. Waiting far too long to address inflation in 2021 suggests the central bank will likely remain hawkish regardless of market conditions in 2022. It is impossible to pick tops or bottoms in any market as prices often rise or fall far beyond where logic, reason, and rational analysis dictate. A market participant’s most effective tool is to follow the trends until they bend. The path of least resistance of asset prices can be the most significant factor for future performance. In these troubled times, where uncertainty is at the highest level in years, don’t fight the trends and go with the flow. In early Q2, it remains bearish in many markets across all asset classes. Stocks, bonds, commodities, cryptos, and other asset classes are making lower highs and lower lows, while the dollar index is moving in the opposite direction. Markets are ugly, but nothing lasts forever. Trend following can be the best route for capturing the most significant moves. You will never buy the lows or sell the highs when following trends, as they will cause short positions at bottoms and long positions at market tops. However, trend-following allows for extracting a substantial percentage from a significant price move. Embrace those trends until they change. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by Andy_Hecht