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Futures

Here are a few tips every one should knowHere's a couple of tips from me that might help in your trading. Those are just my opinions and all are belong to me. Practice think practice think review old ones repeat repeat repeat. It takes a whole lot of thinking and a whole lot of practicing to be good. Give your brain practice all the time like a muscle, and just repeat over and over. Look at examples, past trades, re-read what to do and what not to, re-read all your rules over and over, not until you know them, until forever or they'll just fade away. The more you hammer it in the better you get. Be logical DO NOT FOMO AND INSIST (or enjoy lose lose lose and then miss the final move that is a winner). Mistakes are really expensive. Best to miss out and not force and go look at something else, possibly analyse that one you missed and understand why you missed it, and how to fix, maybe by simplifying the way you detect those. Spend a whole lot of time analysing markets... Try really hard to really think every trade through... do not waste time on "meh" setups. Missing out is not that big of a deal imagine you get 10 of those a month, that's 120/year, now imagine you miss out 2/month you still get to 96/year and you had more time to spend on the 96. And you can still learn something from what you missed out on. Better than losing sanity from looking at charts hunting for setups all the time (and ending up forcing trades and bleeding capital). Price action is not physics. A "weak uptrend" is really what they call a long bull market that ran over countless bears that are all underwater in much pain, and often it ends up with bears giving up and a massive green candle up. And same, a "strong uptrend" is what they call price action with no bears. They did not vanish into another dimension, they just are not present in the market right now. But they are around. Which means they could be just around the corner and all jump in at the same time and reverse the price. In general I think the best is to not go against a "weak" trend ever. What is weak and what is strong enough? That's for you to find out. If you want to go against a pullback it is generally better to enter on vertical price action. People when they see violent price action get scared and remove their orders. The opposite is the right thing to do. Slow price => remove order. Violent price => GOOD, bring it on. Of course you will get run over from time to time. This is your job as a speculator. Speaking of weak trends, do not just use a price stop, but also a time stop: Price just goes nowhere for a long while => Get out. There is no reason for risk ever to be over 2% , and those are reserved for top stuff. Usually around half a percent is good especially when starting, then it can be scaled as the acc grows and even increased progressively to 1% to get a decent sized account. If you really are very certain of your strategy and want to go fast and cannot contain yourself then it is perfectly fine ok I understand you can risk more than a small 2% that barely will make you any money who wants to be spending hundreds of hours to make $50 :) Go for it. Make sure you can not lose more than all of your money, such as with using options or stocks that can only go to zero. At that point the strategy does not even matter. Also make sure you use alot of money, that you spent years to save up. And then keep taking trades until you lose everything. You really have to make sure it is very painful and you go into despair and lose all hope. Trust me when I say with 99% certainty you will really learn your lesson and won't require to learn it again. You will then not ever want to "go quick" again. 99% efficiency guarenteed. You won't have these stupid urges to risk big. If your spouse leaves you it is even better. Leaves a scar that won't heal as a permanent reminder. And consider yourself lucky that you only lost everything.
Education
by MrRenev
1
Winning Daytraders Understand Trend Trading.Hey guys, most people that get into the markets want to learn how to daytrade. They want to learn how to play the market on a day to day basis and eliminate a lot of the stress. Smart day traders understand trend trading. At the end of the day if you are trading something like a 15 minute time frame you're aware of how much noise their is in the markets. You need to eliminate the noise and focus on trend. Stop trying to scalp every little move getting in and out and racking up your fees. What we do is identify some of the largest trends that we can find... the more noise you filter out, the better your odds are at winning. Then we just follow up with good risk management. Take a look at the ema dots indicator. This takes out the complicated noise that most traders battle back and forth all day long either selling too early or buying too late. You need to stop focusing on trying to capture the exact bottom and the exact top. Just focus on capturing the overall trend transitions. Every 15 minutes for example on this chart of the ES futures CONTRACTS we will get a set of dots to close a certain color. We take our position when they align and set a take profit, or hold till next transition. Easy. You risk a little to win big, meaning you play good risk management knowing that the next major move is right around the corner. Technically you don't really need to understand support and Resistance but it does help. I personally believe trading the trend is the way to the gold mine.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
1
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Weakening Market & Consolidation Crude oil is becoming weaker and weaker. though many fundamentalists promised a quick return to "normal" price levels after the lockdown removal, it looks like things are much more complicated than that. if you are a swing trader and you are looking for an opportunity to jump in in the market, I guess it is not the best moment. for the entire month, we could not set a new high. ATR drops as crazy and volatility is missing:) let the market start moving. let it pick the direction and then just act accordingly. swaps are now very expensive on oil, so no need to incur these losses.
FX:USOILEducation
by VasilyTrader
13
GOLD (XAUUSD) Structure Analysis & Thoughts gold is just unstoppable. the price is growing like crazy this week. if you missed this movement and plan to jump in, it is too late and very risky atm. the price is relatively close to our next potential reversal area 1823 - 1833. this area is based on a resistance line of a rising channel and fib.extension confluence of the last two major daily impulses. attention! I don't say that we should just blindly short from that area. always look for a confirmation on a lower time frame to trade against the trend. moreover, if you want to catch a bull rally, a pullback from the above-mentioned area may let you buy on a discount from the support of the channel. apply these structure levels based on your strategy and good luck!
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
16
A brief introduction to RISK MANAGEMENT:If you like my ideas and the work I do, please check out the links in the signature and give me a like ;). As I tend to get a lot of questions about this topic, most traders don’t seem to understand basic risk management in trading! From my experience capital protection and risk management are probably the most important part of any trader's skillset. So that is why I wanted to address this in a more elaborate educational Idea. The kind of questions I get: - I’ve got half my portfolio in this coin and the other in this do you think I need to sell. - Do you think I need to sell my … and buy … - I've been holding this since it was at that price do you think it will go down more ... I know these don't necessarily seem like bad questions to most people, but that is not actually how you should be trading. Note: In crypto trading lots of people (myself included) keep their portfolio in BTC or ETH. Now in doing this, you should not look at the dollar amount of the asset, but the goal should be to increase the amount of the asset you hold. If you are going to switch every five minutes because you think about the dollar amount of said asset, I would advise you to stay in dollar and trade from there. Now with that little particularity out of the way, we can look at how trading should be done. It is known most retail traders take positions with their entire capital and then when it drops they get scared and don’t want to sell because psychologically they can’t handle the risk. Now, this is the best way to blow up your entire portfolio in the shortest amount of time. In trading, you can never be sure a trade will be a winner so you should always make sure you can handle a string of losers without it affecting the bottom line too much. Example of how human psychology works in regards to this is a study done around the Kelly Criterion formula: ( This example is from the Wikipedia page of the Kelly Criterion ) Each participant in this study was given $25 and asked to bet on a coin that would land heads 60% of the time. Participants had 30 minutes to play, so could place about 300 bets, and the prizes were capped at $250. The behavior of the test subjects was far from optimal: Remarkably, 28% of the participants went bust, and the average payout was just $91. Only 21% of the participants reached the maximum. 18 of the 61 participants bet everything on one toss, while two-thirds gambled on tails at some stage in the experiment. Using the Kelly criterion and based on the odds in the experiment (ignoring the cap of $250 and the finite duration of the test), the right approach would be to bet 20% of one's bankroll on each toss of the coin. If losing, the size of the next bet gets cut; if winning, the stake increases. If the bettors had followed this rule (assuming that bets have infinite granularity and there are up to 300 coin tosses per game and that a player who reaches the cap would stop betting after that), an average of 94% of them would have reached the cap, and the average payout would be $237.36. In this particular game, because of the cap, a strategy of betting only 12% of the pot on each toss would have even better results (a 95% probability of reaching the cap and an average payout of $242.03). Now, this is why we do not want to trade like this. We should choose a risk level we are comfortable with per trade and keep this consistent. You can use the Kelly Criterion which can be difficult to do because it requires the win probability per trade for the calculation. Now you could get this by trading a certain trade setup you like to trade, let’s keep it simple, a 100 times. By doing this, you could gage the probability of this setup being a winner and that would allow you to use the Kelly Criterion formula. For beginners, a simpler way of doing this is the 1 percent rule. This means you risk 1% of your portfolio per trade. Simple example: You have a risk-reward per trade of 1/1.5 and your strategy has a win rate of 50% of the time and you make 100 trades on a 10000 dollar portfolio. You would end up with a 25% gain after 100 trades even though the 50 losing trades lost you a total of 5000 dollars. Because of the risk-reward the winners got you 7500 dollars which brings you to 12500 dollars in the end. This is a simple example but it shows the importance of both risk/reward and position size. Of course in reality it would play out slightly different. You would recalculate after every trade if your portfolio decreases due to a loss, which means you reduce your positions to make sure your risk stays at 1% of your portfolio and if you win you increase your positions to do the same. Another thing people get wrong with this rule is they start just betting the same position on each trade of let's say 5% and think they will get out when they lose 1%. This does not work!!! You should look at your setup and where you want to place your stop and look at the percentage between your stop and your entry. If this is for example 20%, you take your 1% risk tolerance and divide it by 20, then multiply it by 100 and that will be your position size. If you are using leverage you will need to divide this position size by the amount of leverage used. An example of risk-reward is shown above. From my experience, some general rules I use which tend to improve your results on top of a risk management system as described above: 1. Cut your losers quickly and keep your winners. 2. Don't change your stop unless you take profit and move it above break even. 3. Always place your stop at a technical level and not a random percentage, for example, the last highest low. Of course, you can adapt this to fit your trading strategy and style but the basics will be the same. I hope this was helpful and if anything is unclear feel free to ask me a question through chat.
Education
by VrotteOtter
discretionary trading 6.4.20 Looking at decisions that are discretionary in order to handle the charting on the 6B: British Pond futures ( apologies for spelling errors in advance...I have made a discretionary decision to not spellcheck ). Trading is always going to require discretion ...and this is good if you have some level of understanding. There is really no escape from avoiding at least some discretionary decisions that a program will not "consider" because of the math...but that you will see, and that matters. Remember: when you enter the market...from that point the market will generate new data that is relevant...yet is not factored into the programing. If you REALLY want to eliminate all discretion.... then take the bars off the chart and have buy and sell signals...and see how that goes. Discretion is required for trading and it is probably better to think of it as a reflection of the ambiguity of the market for buyers and sellers. It is not you and there are some things that will not be programmed well...but your brain can see it...if you look.
CME:6B1!Education
by ScottBogatin
Dedicating Some Time Back To Futures. (ES)Been wanting to get back into the e mini for some time now. As you know I focus on trading stocks and cryptocurrency mainly. I mainly already have my alt portfolio created for long term holds in crypto and I have a couple of stock picks to finish out on the current trades as mentioned in the last post. Plus a couple of higher cap stocks that are also in play for swings. I'm going to cool off and enjoy the big gains I got from the last two months and shift my focus back over to the emini for some day to day scalping. We will be using and combining the Crossover strategy and the ema dots for the smooth buy and sell opportunites. Our trading system can make scalping very effective and I want to focus on development of this skillset. Most know I like to look for long term swing trades as I mainly am a position swing trader. I will be scalping the one minute and I had to post the 15 min because I cant post lower timeframes. I am considering of starting to live stream on here so I can break down how I trade with you all on live plays. I will follow up with my current positions but mainly I will not be sharing a lot of different pairs as I go back to focus on scalping the market. Just wanted to let my followers know where I sit on what I'm looking to play as of right now. Will share follow ups on updates to the emini on this analysis. Best of luck to you all in the markets this week! Happy trading, 😁 🥇MLT | TRADE LIKE A PRO
CME_MINI:ESM2020Education
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
The Money Making System! (BTC)Hello all, I would like to walk you through our system if you're curious to know how we look for easy buy and sell signals. The top chart is the Crossover strategy that we provide in our course. The bottom 3 charts are the ema dots a custom tool created by MLT. We have different settings applied to the bottom 3. What we really want to look for is when all indicators are aligned with all colors firing the same for a buy or sell entry. It's as easy as that! This works perfectly with high liquidity assets in any market. You can use this system for daytrading and swingtrading, be aware though that this does work a lot smoother with larger timeframes for good size swings. Spend less time trading and look for the colors to match. You can check out this indicator in my scripts. I hope we can help you become a better trader with our custom trading system, tools and strategies today! Message me if you have any questions, thanks for your time. Have an awesome day! 😁✌ 🥇MLT | TRADE LIKE A PRO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
21
SILVER (XAGUSD) Key Levels a lot of questions about silver! currently, I don't have any active positions. I have alerts placed on key levels, I will look at the reaction of the market to the underlined levels on the lower timeframe. here are the key levels: 16.7 is our current strong support 17.55 is our current resistance (due to a strong bullish rally it can just easily be broken, so don't jump in aggressively) 18.55 is resistance 2 19.55 is resistance 3 trade key levels only with a confirmation. let me know if you want to see more structure analysis!
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
CRUDE OIL (WTI) STRUCTURE ANALYSIS hey guys, crude keeps growing steadily! the price has easily gone through 18.5 - 20.5 resistance and now it turned to support. our next key daily resistance is 28.6 - 30.6 zone. look for a reversal formation within this area to short. in case of a further bullish continuation, the second resistance will be 34.0 - 36.0 area. if this zone will be reached, the previously mentioned resistance will turn to support as well. the safest trading is always done on key levels. so pay attention to the price action when any of the key zones are reached. good luck!
FX:USOILEducation
by VasilyTrader
24
Forex EURUSD vs Futures 6E ShortWithout getting too technical on lot sizes for forex and contract sizes for futures contracts. The fact remains that the Forex EURUSD pair and be traded with the futures 6E contract. I personally trade futures rather than forex as I can trade either the Futures Emini contract 6E. Or, if the risk is too large between entry and stop using our Roller Coaster Indicator suite, I can switch to the micro contracts which are only 1/10th the value of the normal 6E. This versatility allows me to get in more currency trades, than if I were just trading the Forex EURUSD pair. This chart is an example of our Roller Coaster Indicator Suite for the trading view platform with the 6E contract on the right chart and EURUSD on the left chart. Both 15 minute charts! As you can see the behaviour is very similar. Concentrating on the right hand chart, the 6E contract, the Stop is approx 1.08500 and Short Entry 1.08200. So for the main 6E futures contracts that is 60 ticks Risk and at $6.25 per tick, that's a Risk of $375 for 1 contract Now for the Micro contract, that's only 30 ticks Risk and at $1.3 per tick, that's a Risk of $39 for 1 contract. ( Micro 6E contracts do not have the half point values like the main 6E contract). So if $375 is too much Risk, then maybe 3 micro contracts, giving a Risk of $117 would be more suitable for traders. This is just an example of how versatile futures trading can be for currencies, instead of just trading Forex. Our Roller Coaster Indicator Suite is very powerful, but sometimes the risk seems a little high when traditional Forex trading and this alternative, using futures emin and micro contracts, should be worth exploring for serious traders. This particular trade was a 1:2 winner and I traded 5 Micro Contracts, Risk $195 for a profit of $390, Which isn't bad for 3 hours in the trade. Yes I could have won twice that with 1 normal emini 6E contract, but the Risk was too high for me as I had 2 other trades on at the same time with Gold and one of the indexes. I wrote an article on our blog, back in February, discussing the Roller Coaster strategy , Getting in the Groove and Risk management, you may find interesting.
CME:6E1!Education
by xBratSoftwareSolutions
10
CRUDE OIL (WTI) KEEP CALM! TREND IS STILL BEARISH! hey guys, reading news outlets and ideas on tradingview, the forecasts are all bullish right now! people are urged to buy from any level based on the fundamental news. be very careful! though we truly see a dramatic shift and strong bullish rally this week, don't forget that technically the trend remains bearish! moreover, currently, the price is trading on a key structure resistance level and for now buyers could not break above that and we see a negative reaction. the next safe opportunity to buy will come only after a bullish breakout of the underlined resistance, for now just patiently watch the reaction of the market. it is still possible that next week we may see a perfect signal to short. so no rush right now! good luck and have a great weekend!
FX:USOILEducation
by VasilyTrader
38
How brokers provide zero commission trading? You've probably heard of many zero commission trading platforms being established. Robinhood is probably the most well known one, actually. Historically, brokers have made their money by facilitating trades in the market between buyers and sellers and collected a fee for their extremely hard work... Since markets have become larger, with greater trading volume and more participants, commissions per trade have fallen drastically, and the industry has had to change for your poor broker to earn a living. With the rise of the smartphone, this has led to brokers being able to target a new type of trader... This trader tends to be less informed than a professional... Trading off a phone... A lack of experience... And more of a gambling mentality rather than understanding what is truly driving markets. Firms have realised that. 'Commission free' is a marketing tool, and a very good one. See, what is happening now is that market makers and dealers - and by extension, exchanges - are willing to pay brokers for their uninformed clients' order flow. High frequency trading firms, such as Citadel, Apex, Renaissance, Virtu and DRW conduct market making on extremely low timeframes, providing liquidity to exchanges - that's their primary goal - and exchanges pay them rebates based on volume for doing so - note the chart of the CME Group above. Their share price has increased massively since high frequency trading (market making) has driven 'liquidity' to the exchange. Since their business is focused around volume, they welcome HFTs providing liquidity and therefore do not mind paying them volume based rebates - HFTs are kind of like introducing brokers. But what's a market maker? Market makers are delta neutral. They do not necessarily care about the direction of a market, they simply want to sell higher at the bid and buy at a lower offer, thus capturing the 'spread' (the difference between the bid and the offer). By paying brokers for the uninformed flow, this means that they believe they can capture asset misvaluations, and therefore turn a profit. And it's very lucrative business. Robinhood recently got fined for not routing orders adequately to allow for best execution for clients. The adverse selection that they committed is an example of how a client can be at detriment. However, it isn't necessarily bad to trade with a zero commission broker, since your explicit costs can be low (although implicit - the costs you don't see - could be higher and likely are). What matters massively is their execution policy and whether you are being filled at the bid or offer that the market will allow you, or if you're receiving the price that the broker wishes you to get as part of their routing relationships with market makers. The former is good, the latter is bad! I hope that's cleared up a bit for you...
NASDAQ:CMEEducation
by FinkPro
3