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discretionary trading 6.4.20 Looking at decisions that are discretionary in order to handle the charting on the 6B: British Pond futures ( apologies for spelling errors in advance...I have made a discretionary decision to not spellcheck ). Trading is always going to require discretion ...and this is good if you have some level of understanding. There is really no escape from avoiding at least some discretionary decisions that a program will not "consider" because of the math...but that you will see, and that matters. Remember: when you enter the market...from that point the market will generate new data that is relevant...yet is not factored into the programing. If you REALLY want to eliminate all discretion.... then take the bars off the chart and have buy and sell signals...and see how that goes. Discretion is required for trading and it is probably better to think of it as a reflection of the ambiguity of the market for buyers and sellers. It is not you and there are some things that will not be programmed well...but your brain can see it...if you look.
CME:6B1!Education
by ScottBogatin
Dedicating Some Time Back To Futures. (ES)Been wanting to get back into the e mini for some time now. As you know I focus on trading stocks and cryptocurrency mainly. I mainly already have my alt portfolio created for long term holds in crypto and I have a couple of stock picks to finish out on the current trades as mentioned in the last post. Plus a couple of higher cap stocks that are also in play for swings. I'm going to cool off and enjoy the big gains I got from the last two months and shift my focus back over to the emini for some day to day scalping. We will be using and combining the Crossover strategy and the ema dots for the smooth buy and sell opportunites. Our trading system can make scalping very effective and I want to focus on development of this skillset. Most know I like to look for long term swing trades as I mainly am a position swing trader. I will be scalping the one minute and I had to post the 15 min because I cant post lower timeframes. I am considering of starting to live stream on here so I can break down how I trade with you all on live plays. I will follow up with my current positions but mainly I will not be sharing a lot of different pairs as I go back to focus on scalping the market. Just wanted to let my followers know where I sit on what I'm looking to play as of right now. Will share follow ups on updates to the emini on this analysis. Best of luck to you all in the markets this week! Happy trading, 😁 🥇MLT | TRADE LIKE A PRO
CME_MINI:ESM2020Education
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
The Money Making System! (BTC)Hello all, I would like to walk you through our system if you're curious to know how we look for easy buy and sell signals. The top chart is the Crossover strategy that we provide in our course. The bottom 3 charts are the ema dots a custom tool created by MLT. We have different settings applied to the bottom 3. What we really want to look for is when all indicators are aligned with all colors firing the same for a buy or sell entry. It's as easy as that! This works perfectly with high liquidity assets in any market. You can use this system for daytrading and swingtrading, be aware though that this does work a lot smoother with larger timeframes for good size swings. Spend less time trading and look for the colors to match. You can check out this indicator in my scripts. I hope we can help you become a better trader with our custom trading system, tools and strategies today! Message me if you have any questions, thanks for your time. Have an awesome day! 😁✌ 🥇MLT | TRADE LIKE A PRO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
21
SILVER (XAGUSD) Key Levels a lot of questions about silver! currently, I don't have any active positions. I have alerts placed on key levels, I will look at the reaction of the market to the underlined levels on the lower timeframe. here are the key levels: 16.7 is our current strong support 17.55 is our current resistance (due to a strong bullish rally it can just easily be broken, so don't jump in aggressively) 18.55 is resistance 2 19.55 is resistance 3 trade key levels only with a confirmation. let me know if you want to see more structure analysis!
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
CRUDE OIL (WTI) STRUCTURE ANALYSIS hey guys, crude keeps growing steadily! the price has easily gone through 18.5 - 20.5 resistance and now it turned to support. our next key daily resistance is 28.6 - 30.6 zone. look for a reversal formation within this area to short. in case of a further bullish continuation, the second resistance will be 34.0 - 36.0 area. if this zone will be reached, the previously mentioned resistance will turn to support as well. the safest trading is always done on key levels. so pay attention to the price action when any of the key zones are reached. good luck!
FX:USOILEducation
by VasilyTrader
24
Forex EURUSD vs Futures 6E ShortWithout getting too technical on lot sizes for forex and contract sizes for futures contracts. The fact remains that the Forex EURUSD pair and be traded with the futures 6E contract. I personally trade futures rather than forex as I can trade either the Futures Emini contract 6E. Or, if the risk is too large between entry and stop using our Roller Coaster Indicator suite, I can switch to the micro contracts which are only 1/10th the value of the normal 6E. This versatility allows me to get in more currency trades, than if I were just trading the Forex EURUSD pair. This chart is an example of our Roller Coaster Indicator Suite for the trading view platform with the 6E contract on the right chart and EURUSD on the left chart. Both 15 minute charts! As you can see the behaviour is very similar. Concentrating on the right hand chart, the 6E contract, the Stop is approx 1.08500 and Short Entry 1.08200. So for the main 6E futures contracts that is 60 ticks Risk and at $6.25 per tick, that's a Risk of $375 for 1 contract Now for the Micro contract, that's only 30 ticks Risk and at $1.3 per tick, that's a Risk of $39 for 1 contract. ( Micro 6E contracts do not have the half point values like the main 6E contract). So if $375 is too much Risk, then maybe 3 micro contracts, giving a Risk of $117 would be more suitable for traders. This is just an example of how versatile futures trading can be for currencies, instead of just trading Forex. Our Roller Coaster Indicator Suite is very powerful, but sometimes the risk seems a little high when traditional Forex trading and this alternative, using futures emin and micro contracts, should be worth exploring for serious traders. This particular trade was a 1:2 winner and I traded 5 Micro Contracts, Risk $195 for a profit of $390, Which isn't bad for 3 hours in the trade. Yes I could have won twice that with 1 normal emini 6E contract, but the Risk was too high for me as I had 2 other trades on at the same time with Gold and one of the indexes. I wrote an article on our blog, back in February, discussing the Roller Coaster strategy , Getting in the Groove and Risk management, you may find interesting.
CME:6E1!Education
by xBratSoftwareSolutions
10
CRUDE OIL (WTI) KEEP CALM! TREND IS STILL BEARISH! hey guys, reading news outlets and ideas on tradingview, the forecasts are all bullish right now! people are urged to buy from any level based on the fundamental news. be very careful! though we truly see a dramatic shift and strong bullish rally this week, don't forget that technically the trend remains bearish! moreover, currently, the price is trading on a key structure resistance level and for now buyers could not break above that and we see a negative reaction. the next safe opportunity to buy will come only after a bullish breakout of the underlined resistance, for now just patiently watch the reaction of the market. it is still possible that next week we may see a perfect signal to short. so no rush right now! good luck and have a great weekend!
FX:USOILEducation
by VasilyTrader
38
How brokers provide zero commission trading? You've probably heard of many zero commission trading platforms being established. Robinhood is probably the most well known one, actually. Historically, brokers have made their money by facilitating trades in the market between buyers and sellers and collected a fee for their extremely hard work... Since markets have become larger, with greater trading volume and more participants, commissions per trade have fallen drastically, and the industry has had to change for your poor broker to earn a living. With the rise of the smartphone, this has led to brokers being able to target a new type of trader... This trader tends to be less informed than a professional... Trading off a phone... A lack of experience... And more of a gambling mentality rather than understanding what is truly driving markets. Firms have realised that. 'Commission free' is a marketing tool, and a very good one. See, what is happening now is that market makers and dealers - and by extension, exchanges - are willing to pay brokers for their uninformed clients' order flow. High frequency trading firms, such as Citadel, Apex, Renaissance, Virtu and DRW conduct market making on extremely low timeframes, providing liquidity to exchanges - that's their primary goal - and exchanges pay them rebates based on volume for doing so - note the chart of the CME Group above. Their share price has increased massively since high frequency trading (market making) has driven 'liquidity' to the exchange. Since their business is focused around volume, they welcome HFTs providing liquidity and therefore do not mind paying them volume based rebates - HFTs are kind of like introducing brokers. But what's a market maker? Market makers are delta neutral. They do not necessarily care about the direction of a market, they simply want to sell higher at the bid and buy at a lower offer, thus capturing the 'spread' (the difference between the bid and the offer). By paying brokers for the uninformed flow, this means that they believe they can capture asset misvaluations, and therefore turn a profit. And it's very lucrative business. Robinhood recently got fined for not routing orders adequately to allow for best execution for clients. The adverse selection that they committed is an example of how a client can be at detriment. However, it isn't necessarily bad to trade with a zero commission broker, since your explicit costs can be low (although implicit - the costs you don't see - could be higher and likely are). What matters massively is their execution policy and whether you are being filled at the bid or offer that the market will allow you, or if you're receiving the price that the broker wishes you to get as part of their routing relationships with market makers. The former is good, the latter is bad! I hope that's cleared up a bit for you...
NASDAQ:CMEEducation
by FinkPro
3
XBTZ19 Data Capture, 6 months of Bitcoin Futures dataIn my experience Tradingview does not keep data of expired Bitmex contracts after expiration. The primary purpose of this post is to keep the valuable data from XBTZ19 contract from being lost forever. My indicator script XBT Contango Calculator Version 3 is used in this example to capture all the data from the December Futures contract. This post should be a historical record of how backwardation and contango affected price action during the last 6 months. I will do this post at each expiration, primarily for my own benefit and analysis, but also as a record other traders in the community can look back on. Please also see below "Links to related Ideas"
BITMEX:XBTEducation
by SchamBTC
This is why the SPX is overdue for at least a 2.50% pullbackThe equity markets in the US have been moving really well through highs like its nobody's business, however as they continuously progress the moves get shorter and the pullbacks non-existent. Recent a 1.5-2 year wedge in formation was broken to the upside which indicates a bull trend continuation. Usually, the pop above the broken resistance will revert at least temporarily to the broken level before moving higher. This isn't a crash and recession call to all-time lows rather an opportunity to identify a potential retrace before a larger pop. The facts are, the volume on this whole break higher has been terribly low, no one wants to buy a market at all-time highs and no one wants to sell because they want more profit. Its been 2 months with just 1 red week and that red week was insignificant. The pullback brings the price down to the wedge break and previous highs at least 2.50% lower than the price right now. From there, there will be 2 catalysts that bring price higher. 1. A lot of big money is waiting for an "in" on the long side of the market and when deemed cheap enough will bid up the market by strong buying. 2. The Fed is still pumping A LOT of money into the economy at abysmally low rates.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by TRADEPROAcademy
6
What is the role of speculators (short term)?To mainstreet, speculating is "what wall street does" and "is abstract", sometimes "what banks do", they have no idea what it is for, the image I guess is fast cars and stupid banker drinking champagne all the time? The wolf of wall street. Wolf of wall street was a stock broker, but they're all just the same to people aren't they? Plenty of people get involved in markets, but I want to focus on what I do which is speculating. Risk taking. Predicting the future. This is what 99% of new fresh retail traders think of when they first get in. I rarely see a definition of what trading is, and I even never or very rarely see it divided in different areas (as I said on the chart, arbitrage market making etc are different from speculating). Today for the first time someone is going to explain exactly what it is and what its purpose is, market by market (but really I'm going to explain for forex & futures which are my area of expertise and just throw out guesses for the rest). And yes, it does serve a purpose, at least in forex & futures it does. * Futures (Metals Agriculture Energy) Futures markets allow farmers, industrials, miners, businesses in general, to conduct business efficiently without having to worry about price fluctuations. This has to be the easiest to understand, because physical goods are involved and real people that need to buy or sell these goods regardless of events they have no control on. This, the futures exchange market, has existed for at least 10 millenia. 10000 years! Can you believe it? In 1750 BC, trading was carried out at temples, so they even had a trading floor like the CME before computers. medium.com (On the internet you can find the story of Thales - the mathematician & philosopher you probably heard about at school- that predicted the olive harvest would be exceptional and speculated on that, and made alot of money doing so. That was 26 centuries ago). Futures have existed for as long as agriculture did. Our entire civilisation is based and relies on futures! Some examples: Grains (Corn Wheat Soybeans Rice). So to sum up: - On one side: Farmers & Food manufacturers/distributors looking for price stability so they may run their business smoothly. Get rid of the risk. Their job is producing or processing food. - On the other side: Speculators eating up all of the risk, miam miam miam nom nom nom, dealing with market fluctuations and portfolio fluctuations. Their job is to take risk and anticipate future price movements. One could almost say with certitude, there would be no civilisation without speculators fulfilling this role. Complete mayhem. Industrial metals: Another example with food: From a company that sells advice to food industries and manufacturers: Supermarkets that put small businesses out of business are now also at a risk of closing shop, as consumers want the cheapest goods they can get: Concrete simple quick example of when unhedged costs can really destroy a company: According to a SEC filing they have 30 billions of debt. They are completely vulnerable to the weather and other random events. 2 catastrophies and bankrupcies in less than 20 years are you serious? And consumers are paying for it? See why futures are useful now? Ah, energy. No point repeating the basic principle, it's the same as for industrial metals & various agri goods. let's look at a few bankrupcies. The most famous one might be ENRON but that's not because of price fluctuation it's because they were crooks. By the way ENRON CEO created a crypto the day he got out of jail. What a guy XD He's instantly back to scamming. Energy Future Holdings. Calpine Corporation. Were, and still are, the largest generator of electricity from natural gas and geothermal resources in the United States. This is the opposite of the previous one. The previous one lost money because prices went down. That one went bankrupt because costs went up. All they had to do was buy long futures... Businesses that buy and sell energy fuel are part of the market, whether they like it or not. NOT buying long contracts inderectly makes them speculate the price will go down, OR that it won't go so high it will cripple them. Basically makes them bagholders holding onto a loser. The company received $2 billion in financing to allow it to keep its plants supplying customers. From taxpayers I assume? The great rektage of 2015. This is not an officially adopted name, it's one I choose to describe this. It should become the official term. What happened? More than 330 North American energy companies went bankrupt. Estimate of the cumulative debt fluctuate between 100 billion and 500 billion. www.houstonchronicle.com The WSJ keeps track of the listed companies bankrupcy filings since 2015, I am not sure they are all here but anyway it's still big: graphics.wsj.com Coal. Not sure how this works, but some companies producing coal went bankrupt when prices started to fall. James River Coal is still running, Patriot Coal is defunct, and its retired workers lost their health benefits. For the employees themselves there is not much they can do there. Recently you have US farmers that not only lost china as a customer, had their crops destroyed by a recent heat wave, but also have to deal with lower prices, because of the trade war (since demand dropped). www.cnbc.com Still, they are defending Trump, and he has an approval rating of near 80% with them. I know that even small farmers, not just big companies, participate in the futures market, but I don't really know how many. Anyone is allowed to. If there is 1 thing farmers industrials and utility companies can learn from this, it's don't gamble man. Leave the gambling to the professional gamblers. According to the CME (if I remember correctly), their futures speculators in general are not taking huge amounts of money home. So it's not like the price of hedging was insanely high. They might lose up on potential profits but at the end, their job is not to take risks and have massive fluctuations in their pnl and go bankrupt every few years. Another reason: Sustainable consumption level Copied from wikipedia because I am lazy: To sum up, what are speculators good for in the (industrial metals, energy and agriculture) futures market: - They absorb risk, allowing producers, industrials and consumers to not get (sometimes massive) fluctuations in their costs & profits - They may or may not price commodities more correctly via the research they do on those - Sustainable consumption level * Foreign Exchange There are so many exports in the world. Go to any store, it will be full of foreign goods. "Made in China" everywhere. Huge ship filled with huge containers are docking at Rotterdam every day. The biggest port for this stuff is Shanghai in China. In 2018 they processed 42 million twenty-foot equivalent units (big containers). I guess one of those can hold 2 cars, or a small truck with a car on it, or 25,000 kg of goods. Rotterdam is number 11 on the list with 14.5 million container equivalent processed. According to this: www.thebalance.com The USA in 2018 exported for $2.5 trillion and imported for $3.1 trillion. People importing and exporting goods are probably going to work with several currencies. They want to make money, the last thing they need is to lose money because of some foreign exchange fluctuation (countries have had fixed rates but it always ends bad as the forces of supply and demand mainly demand end up being too much to handle). About the fixed rates: countryfolk end up paying for that. Either the taxpayer directly through taxes, or via inflation as central bank/governement prints imaginary money out of thin air to buy their currency (or sell) to maintain that rate/floor. Even Bretton Woods system had its end. "On 15 August 1971, the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US dollar to gold, effectively bringing the Bretton Woods system to an end and rendering the dollar a fiat currency." Other hedgers might be someone from the US buying and selling a company. He buys a NZD company, its value goes up 15%, he sells for a profit and then converts back to usd. Wups, the NZDUSD rate dropped by 25% meanwhile, so he actually lost money. One third of the forex volume (I think) comes from swap "buy a currency on day 1 and sell another on day 2". Internet companies, like steam, can use the spot fx market for converting the money they made selling games (in this example) to europeans, into usd. Steam keeps their game prices stable, so either they take on the risk willingly, or perhaps they use the foreign exchange market to hedge against price fluctuations. I do not know what they do but this might be it. Ad revenue on the internet probably generates alot of forex trading... Same concept once again. Various businesses (businesses is such a wide term) are not trying to gamble, they are selling a service on the internet, selling soybean to china (too early?), selling cars to the US, selling electronics to the world, paying salaries worldwide, foreign investors don't want their 50% up investments in a stock market to make them lose 20% because of currencies fluctuations etc. Some have complained that speculators make the market more volatile, and hurt global operators especially those into import/export. And it's true when some investment bank traders are manipulating rates, obviously. The problem is not with speculating itself.. I would say speculators have these uses: - Mitigate or even almost eliminate economic activities risk from unknown future prices. - Fight idiotic central policies and forced rates, the way George Soros broke the bank of england. If it is possible to keep buying an undervalued currency, people are going to rob these central banks. Imagine you can buy a house at half the price in england... - Maybe via analysing every information about a product, they help set the "right" price of a currency (making the market more efficient) * Stock market Speculators in the stock market: - In the case of short sellers, they help remove capital from failing companies or even frauds (ENRON) & re-allocate it better, so they fight waste and prevent future investors from buying an overvalued company. - The bring liquidity? So investors can more easilly buy or sell? - They get excited and create bubbles that slow down the economy and causes millions of jobs to be lost? - That's it? * Bonds I have no idea. I hope you didn't check this post to see what I thought about bonds. * Crypto - Help make criminals richer (drug dealers paedophiles terrorists north korea) - Divert capital from the economy towards a ponzi scheme - Parasites that add nothing to society * Real Estate - Create bubbles - ???
Education
by MrRenev
EW Analysis: Wave structure Suggests Limited Downside For BTCHello traders! After that deeper corrective decline called double zig-zag W-X-Y pattern on Bitcoin , it's time to take a look at potential support levels. We decided to take a look at Bitcoin dominance ( BTC .D) against the ALT dominance (OTHERS.D), where we clearly see a corrective decline in wave 4 that can find support soon, ideally around previous wave »iv«, 38,2% Fibonacci retracement and 14.00 – 13.50 area. So, seems like BTC Dominance will come back, which can be supportive for Bitcoin , especially if ALTs are looking for the potential support or bottom, but according to dominance, BTC should be still doing it better than ALTs! We also decided to take a look on BTC Futures chart, because it's more accurate than those from exchanges. As said above, we are tracking a double zig-zag W-X-Y corrective pattern, which can be approaching the end soon, ideally once BTC .D/OTHERS.D chart finds support. From technical perspective, previous wave 4 and 61,8% Fibonacci retracement are actually ideal support zone and if we also consider an open GAP from May, which usually acts as a reversal point once it gets filled, then we should be really aware of a potential bounce around 7000 area, specifically 7400 – 6300! As always, the count always needs to be confirmed, so we will be watching very closely when/if comes into the support zone . And, if BTCUSD is really going to rebound in strong and impulsive manner later, then we will be looking for longs, but until then we have to patiently wait! Trade smart! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DEducation
by ew-forecast
1