Understanding Sessions - ES FuturesFollow up from yesterday's post.
See this example from the action this morning.
The rip higher off the open to grab supply, only to reverse on the next 15 min bar, taking out the Open price, immediately heading for where? The Pre-Equity Open Defender created hours before the normal session open.
This is critical because the Pre-Equity Open in Futures is a helpful guide not just in Futures, but for SPY, QQQ, or any stock. It's serving as the guide for where the pressure is for the morning. It can often act like it did today, halting the selling to reverse higher. It ALSO works in the other direction, when equities Open at 9:30am, where are we in relation to the Pre-Equity Open in Futures? If below, that's downside pressure until we forceably breakthrough it.
Remember - once the level is tagged, many of the resting orders have been filled. More can come in behind it, but an intra-day retrace all the way too any of these Session Opens is more likely to at least push price to the other side of it, finding out "what is there" orderflow wise.
Futures
ICHIMOKU-DMI-RSI-setupWhen DMI is above 20
and top of Histogram sticks on DMI = Green --- go Long
and top of Histogram sticks on DMI = RED --- Short
NOTE: If candles are far away from cloud, try to wait for a better entry, as candles move toward the cloud and thru moving averages for support/resistance entries.
If DMI is below 20 , no entry
Above the cloud is long, Below the cloud is Short
As candles move thru the cloud, long or short, enter as it exits the cloud, then use the cloud edge as stop loss.
Use the RSI as it nears top or bottom for possible long/short exits.
BUY and SELL triangles to help with possible entry / exit points.
120 day MA added for reference point to
I mostly use this on 1 min, 3 min and 5 min for daytrading futures, stocks. Can be used on anything. Higher time frames are more for swing trading.
IMPROVE YOUR TRADING | Simple Flowchart For You to Follow 🧭📍
A short ⚠️disclaimer before we start:
the rules that will be discussed in this post are applicable only for technicians - traders that are relying on price action/structure/etc.
Also, we assume that structure levels do work and for us, key levels are considered to be the safest trading zones/points.
In order to increase the accuracy of your predictions analyzing different financial markets, you must learn to identify the direction of the market.📈
The identification of the market trend must be based on strict & reliable & testable rules.
It can be based on technical indicators or price action
Personally, I prefer to rely on price action.
Here are a couple of examples of how I identify the market trend:
There are three main types of market trends:
Bullish Trend
Bearish Trend
Sideways Market
Depending on the current direction of the market, on the chart, I drew a flow chart✔️ that will help you to act safely.
➡️Sideways market signifies consolidation & indecision. Usually being in such a state the market tends to coil in horizontal ranges.
To trade such a market safely, the best option for you will be to wait for a breakout of the range & wait for the initiation of the trend.
➡️Once you spotted a bullish market, do not rush to buy.
Your task will be to identify the closest strong structure support.
You must be patient enough to let the price reach that support first (and by the way, there is no guarantee that it will happen) and then you must wait for a certain confirmation.
Please, check the article about different types of confirmations:
Only once you get the needed confirmation you can buy the market.
➡️The same strategy will be applicable to a bearish market.
Spotting a short rally it is way early to just sell the asset from a random point.
You must find the closest strong structure resistance and wait for the moment when the price will approach that.
Then your task will be to wait for a confirmation and only when you got the reliable trigger you short the market.
🦉Try to rely on this flow chart and I promise you that you will see a dramatic increase in your trading performance.
And even though it may appear to you that this flow chart is TOO SIMPLE, in practice, even such a set of rules requires iron discipline and patience.
Thank you so much for reading this article,
I hope you enjoy it!
❤️Please, support it with like and comment. Thank you!
📈📉How Market Cycles Work | Bull & Bear Market 🐿
All the financial markets are cyclical :
after a sharp and strong bullish trend always comes a severe bearish rally.
After panic & massive selloffs, the market tends to recover and awakens optimism closing a vicious circle.
Watching carefully how the price acts during these cycles, an observer can identify the recurring stages .
#1 Accumulation
The accumulation stage starts once the market finds its bottom.
Bearish pressure weakens and the market starts trading in sideways.
While the crowd remains cautious, smart money like banks and hedge funds start buying the asset considering that to be undervalued.
It leads to occasional moderate spikes of a price.
Being the best time to buy the market, the accumulation stage is the hardest to spot correctly. Global pessimism and disbelief make the investor scared to buy the asset.
#2 - 3 Public Participation & Excess Stage
The accumulation stage and the actions of smart money make the crowd buy the asset steadily. Pushing the market to new highs and generating sufficient profits, the crowd brings more and more liquidity into the market.
Bullish trend is universally confirmed.
The optimism steadily transforms into euphoria and the asset quickly becomes overvalued. Greed starts to dominate the crowd. Record highs are reached and no one doubts further growth.
#4 Distribution
At some moment the market stops growing. Even though everyone is very confident in a bullish continuation, the market naturally refuses to grow.
Moreover, the market starts to slow down and volatility drops steadily.
The market starts ranging and trade in sideways.
Smart money starts selling their positions steadily to a greedy crowd.
#5 Bearish Trend
With an absence of growth, more and more market participants start selling the asset. Optimism steadily vanishes and pessimism comes into play.
Contemplating negative figures, the crowd starts to panic, making the market fall sharply.
The outlook is dark and no one believes in recovery.
Then the market suddenly starts slowing down and the cycle repeats.
Watch how the price acts, learn the price action & master the market cycles to benefit from any of them.
❤️ Please, if you enjoyed this article, like it and share your feedback in a comment section. Thank you! ❤️
History of Forex | From Ancient to the Modern Day TradingWe have come a long way from the previously practiced barter system to the modern-day system of trading currency. Following is a brief summary of the evolution of currency and how it gave rise to Forex Trading.
Here are the main stages that are illustrated on the chart:
1️⃣The Ancient system of Trading - Trading with Gold
As early as 6th century BC , the first gold coins were produced, and they acted as a currency because they had critical characteristics like portability, durability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability.
2️⃣Bank Notes Originated - Deposited Gold in banks in exchange for banknotes
3️⃣Role of Geography - Various banks of different regions printed different currencies
Gold Standard - Currency pegged to gold
In the 1800s countries adopted the gold standard. The gold standard guaranteed that the government would redeem any amount of paper money for its value in gold . This worked fine until World War I where European countries had to suspend the gold standard to print more money to pay for the war.
4️⃣Bretton Woods System - Currency pegged to USD
The first major transformation of the foreign exchange market, the Bretton Woods System, occurred toward the end of World War II.
The Bretton Woods Accord was established to create a stable environment by which global economies could restore themselves. It attempted this by creating an adjustable pegged foreign exchange market. An adjustable pegged exchange rate is an exchange rate policy whereby a currency is fixed to another currency. In this case, foreign countries would 'fix' their exchange rate to the US Dollar .
5️⃣Birth of Floating Currency - Currency that is not pegged to any assets or other currencies is known as a 'floating currency'.
And what will be next?
Very hard to say but blockchain technologies will make the system change again.
Day Trading ES with Simplicity! Initial Balance VWAP and LevelsHey everyone I thought I can share with you what I see working intraday trading the Futures markets. One size definitely does not fit all. Beware of people that tell you their way or the highway! This may resonate with some traders and not with other traders. Getting really good at identifying the Initial Balance, VWAP and Daily Weekly Monthly Levels for areas of Supply and Demand, (where macro traders sit) you can get a great edge over time with your trading and build a ton of confidence. Check it out for yourself. I also use order flow to actual enter and manage my trade ideas but that is for another topic. Everyone take care out there.
📈📉How Market Cycles Work | Bull & Bear Market 🐿
All the financial markets are cyclical :
after a sharp and strong bullish trend always comes a severe bearish rally.
After panic & massive selloffs, the market tends to recover and awakens optimism closing a vicious circle.
Watching carefully how the price acts during these cycles, an observer can identify the recurring stages .
#1 Accumulation
The accumulation stage starts once the market finds its bottom.
Bearish pressure weakens and the market starts trading in sideways.
While the crowd remains cautious, smart money like banks and hedge funds start buying the asset considering that to be undervalued.
It leads to occasional moderate spikes of a price.
Being the best time to buy the market, the accumulation stage is the hardest to spot correctly. Global pessimism and disbelief make the investor scared to buy the asset.
#2 - 3 Public Participation & Excess Stage
The accumulation stage and the actions of smart money make the crowd buy the asset steadily. Pushing the market to new highs and generating sufficient profits, the crowd brings more and more liquidity into the market.
Bullish trend is universally confirmed.
The optimism steadily transforms into euphoria and the asset quickly becomes overvalued. Greed starts to dominate the crowd. Record highs are reached and no one doubts further growth.
#4 Distribution
At some moment the market stops growing. Even though everyone is very confident in a bullish continuation, the market naturally refuses to grow.
Moreover, the market starts to slow down and volatility drops steadily.
The market starts ranging and trade in sideways.
Smart money starts selling their positions steadily to a greedy crowd.
#5 Bearish Trend
With an absence of growth, more and more market participants start selling the asset. Optimism steadily vanishes and pessimism comes into play.
Contemplating negative figures, the crowd starts to panic, making the market fall sharply.
The outlook is dark and no one believes in recovery.
Then the market suddenly starts slowing down and the cycle repeats.
Watch how the price acts, learn the price action & master the market cycles to benefit from any of them.
❤️ Please, if you enjoyed this article, like it and share your feedback in a comment section. Thank you! ❤️
Price Action Study: Single Candle Supply & Demand ZonesHappy Sunday everybody, today I'll be providing a quick writeup on identification of single-candle Supply & Demand zones, otherwise known as "Orderblocks" (Credits to ICT for coining this phrase)
Supply & Demand are one of the most fundamental aspects of trading securities.
In price action - liquidity is believed to be the driving force behind market movements. The primary reason assets move is because of an imbalance between buyers and sellers - supply & demand.
If supply outweighs demand, price moves down.
If demand outweighs supply, price moves up.
If supply and demand are relatively the same - the market consolidates.
Supply and demand zones are created during consolidations - and today we are going to look at how to identify them. When prices is to return to these zones, we look for signs of accumulation to go long, or distribution to short.
Single candle supply and demand zones are also commonly referred to as "orderblocks" - here's how to identify them.
Demand/Bullish OB: A down candle before an up move that breaks market structure - a higher high.
Supply/Bearish OB: An up candle before a down move that breaks market structure - a lower low.
It is an important distinction - we need a structural break for the zone to be a meaningful region to watch if/when price is to return.
-Will, OptionsSwing Analyst
Why the S&P500 Micro Futures is one of the best markets to trade Hey Traders so today I wanted to show you a great market to consider trading the S&P500 Micro Futures. I think it is one of the easiest markets to learn vs the Forex and others. It offers great leverage and really good risk vs reward. Of course futures are different from stocks, crypto and forex. The are considered high risk because of the volatility and leverage. But definitely I think they are a good asset class to consider adding to every traders portfolio with the right risk management. Plus this market is a great way to start capturing all the great gains that the stock market has had in the last 10 years. As long as the bull market continues I think this market will remain strong.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
How to Assess Your Trading Performance|Consistency & Perspective
Hey traders,
👨🏻💻I am trading forex for more than 8 years.
During the last 5 years, I am actively posting my analysis & trades on TradingView.
Growing my audience, it was very peculiar for me to contemplate the reaction of my followers to my trading performance.
(by the way, we must say thanks to tradingview where the posting system does not allow to delete the posted trades so that each and every author is easily backtestable).
👩👩👧👧👨👨👧👧Those who follow me at least a half a year know that occasionally I have winning streaks when 9 out of 10 of my forecasts play out nicely. Sometimes, however, I face the drawdowns and catch a sequence of losing trades.
And sometimes the performance is mixed with the probabilities being on my side slightly.
🥇While the reaction to winning streaks is quite predictable:
I am praised by the members and get nice tips.
The reaction to losing streaks is worth discussing in detail.
It turned out that quite a huge portion of a trading community has a completely wrong understanding of a trading nature.
🤬The single loss is considered by them to be a failure, a mistake.
Facing the sequence of losses, they quickly become negatively biased to the person that they have just recently praised.
With the continuation of a drawdown, they blame the analyst and launch a barrage of criticism towards him.
🔍Then they are in a search again. They are looking for a trader that will be constantly right. Catching the new one during a winning streak, the cycle repeats.
At some moment such people become disappointed in trading and drop this business...
❗️Losses, losing streaks and negative days/weeks/months are inevitable. If you want to become a full-time trader, you must be prepared for the fact that trading won't give you a stable income.
Your equity curve will be in constant fluctuation.
Your goal in this game is simply to lose less than you make.
You must become disciplined enough to keep following the rules of your trading strategy no matter what.
You must learn to be consistent in your actions.
You should learn to perceive losing trades not as a failure but simply as the moment when the market takes its share.
Feeding you, giving you the opportunity to make money out of thin air,
the market definitely has a right to claim its dividends from you.
⭐️Change your mindset, learn to lose and the magic thing will happen.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
YOUR PROFIT FORMULA | Three Essential Ingredients 🤔💭💫
Hey traders, We must admit that it is phenomenally difficult to become a consistently profitable trader.
This journey requires years of practicing and training, constant losses, and nervous breakdowns.
If you are a struggling trader, if you are still looking for your way to succeed in this game, here is the formula that will help you to chase consistent profits.
💰Consistent profits = 📝Trading Strategy + 🤬Emotions + 📈Market Sentiment
Let's discuss each element separately.
📝Trading Strategy:
To be in profit in a long run requires an understanding of what do you actually trade.
You must have strict and objective entry conditions.
You must rely on the objective & verifiable rules for the execution of market analysis.
You must have a plan to follow.
A plan that is backtested and proved its efficiency.
🤬Emotions:
Even the best trading plan, the most accurate trading strategy can be easily beaten by emotions.
Emotional decisions such as revenge trading and early position close
can easily blow the account of any size in a blink of an eye.
The most disappointing thing to note right here is the fact that you can be taught how to execute technical analysis but you can not be taught to control your emotions.
Your main enemy here is yourself and being in a constant battle with your greed and fear it is very easy to go broke.
Only by being humble, disciplined and patient, you can successfully apply a trading strategy.
📈Market Sentiment:
Mastering your emotions and having studied a trading strategy, it looks like it is finally the time to make money.
However, occasionally the market tends to be irrational.
Being chaotic and unpredictable, sometimes the market neglects every technical and fundamental rule.
Crisis, euphoria: the reasons can be different.
The fact is that such things happen.
And it is your duty to learn to deal with unfavorable market conditions.
💰To become a consistently profitable trader, you must become the master of these three elements.
Only then the doors to freedom and independence will be opened to you.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
History of Forex | From Ancient to the Modern Day
We have come a long way from the previously practiced barter system to the modern-day system of trading currency. Following is a brief summary of the evolution of currency and how it gave rise to Forex Trading.
Here are the main stages that are illustrated on the chart:
1️⃣The Ancient system of Trading - Trading with Gold
As early as 6th century BC, the first gold coins were produced, and they acted as a currency because they had critical characteristics like portability, durability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability.
2️⃣Bank Notes Originated - Deposited Gold in banks in exchange for banknotes
3️⃣Role of Geography - Various banks of different regions printed different currencies
Gold Standard - Currency pegged to gold
In the 1800s countries adopted the gold standard. The gold standard guaranteed that the government would redeem any amount of paper money for its value in gold. This worked fine until World War I where European countries had to suspend the gold standard to print more money to pay for the war.
4️⃣Bretton Woods System - Currency pegged to USD
The first major transformation of the foreign exchange market, the Bretton Woods System, occurred toward the end of World War II.
The Bretton Woods Accord was established to create a stable environment by which global economies could restore themselves. It attempted this by creating an adjustable pegged foreign exchange market. An adjustable pegged exchange rate is an exchange rate policy whereby a currency is fixed to another currency. In this case, foreign countries would 'fix' their exchange rate to the US Dollar.
5️⃣Birth of Floating Currency - Currency that is not pegged to any assets or other currencies is known as a 'floating currency'.
And what will be next?
Very hard to say but blockchain technologies will make the system change again.
❤️Please, support this educational post with a like and lovely comment❤️
History of Forex | From Ancient to the Modern Day
We have come a long way from the previously practiced barter system to the modern-day system of trading currency. Following is a brief summary of the evolution of currency and how it gave rise to Forex Trading.
Here are the main stages that are illustrated on the chart:
1️⃣The Ancient system of Trading - Trading with Gold
As early as 6th century BC, the first gold coins were produced, and they acted as a currency because they had critical characteristics like portability, durability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability.
2️⃣Bank Notes Originated - Deposited Gold in banks in exchange for banknotes
3️⃣Role of Geography - Various banks of different regions printed different currencies
Gold Standard - Currency pegged to gold
In the 1800s countries adopted the gold standard. The gold standard guaranteed that the government would redeem any amount of paper money for its value in gold. This worked fine until World War I where European countries had to suspend the gold standard to print more money to pay for the war.
4️⃣Bretton Woods System - Currency pegged to USD
The first major transformation of the foreign exchange market, the Bretton Woods System, occurred toward the end of World War II.
The Bretton Woods Accord was established to create a stable environment by which global economies could restore themselves. It attempted this by creating an adjustable pegged foreign exchange market. An adjustable pegged exchange rate is an exchange rate policy whereby a currency is fixed to another currency. In this case, foreign countries would 'fix' their exchange rate to the US Dollar.
5️⃣Birth of Floating Currency - Currency that is not pegged to any assets or other currencies is known as a 'floating currency'.
And what will be next?
Very hard to say but blockchain technologies will make the system change again.
❤️Please, support this educational post with a like and lovely comment❤️
The 3 Types of Traders. Who Do You Belong To? 🤔
There are thousands of different ways to trade the market.
During the last 100 years, various trading strategies and techniques were invented.
One of the ways to categorize them is to split them by types of traders.
Such a category type will lean on 2 main elements:
trading frequency and time frame selection.
1️⃣ - Scalper
I guess 99% of newbie traders start from scalping.
Trying to catch quick market moves and become rich quick,
newbies are practicing different scalping strategies.
What is funny about scalping is the fact that such a trading style is considered to be the easiest by the majority while remaining one of the hardest in the view of pros.
The main obstacle with scalping is a constant focus and rapid decision-making.
Scalpers usually open dozens of trading positions during the trading session, most of the time being in front of the screen constantly.
Paying huge commissions to the broker and dealing with complete chaos on lower time frames, the majority simply can't survive the pressure and drop, leaving the pie to true gurus.
2️⃣ - Day Trader
Day trading or intraday trading is the most appealing to me.
Staying relatively active, the market gives some time for the trader for reflection & thinking.
Opening and managing on average 1-2 trades per trading session, the intraday trader is granted a certain degree of freedom.
However, with declining volatility, quite ofter intraday traders get a relatively low risk/reward ratio for their trades,
3️⃣ - Swing Trader
Swing trading is the best choice for traders having a full-time job.
Primarily being focused on daily/weekly time frames, swing trading is not demanding for a daily routine and aims at catching mid-term/long-term market moves.
With an average holding period being around 2 weeks and opening 1-2 trading positions per week, swing trading is considered to be the least emotional and involves low risk.
The main problem with swing trading is patience.
Correctly identifying the market trend and opening a trading position,
the majority tends to close their positions preliminary not being patient enough to let the price reach their target.
Which trading type do you prefer?
The 3 Types of Traders. Who Do You Belong To? 🤔
There are thousands of different ways to trade the market.
During the last 100 years, various trading strategies and techniques were invented.
One of the ways to categorize them is to split them by types of traders.
Such a category type will lean on 2 main elements:
trading frequency and time frame selection.
1️⃣ - Scalper
I guess 99% of newbie traders start from scalping.
Trying to catch quick market moves and become rich quick,
newbies are practicing different scalping strategies.
What is funny about scalping is the fact that such a trading style is considered to be the easiest by the majority while remaining one of the hardest in the view of pros.
The main obstacle with scalping is a constant focus and rapid decision-making.
Scalpers usually open dozens of trading positions during the trading session, most of the time being in front of the screen constantly.
Paying huge commissions to the broker and dealing with complete chaos on lower time frames, the majority simply can't survive the pressure and drop, leaving the pie to true gurus.
2️⃣ - Day Trader
Day trading or intraday trading is the most appealing to me.
Staying relatively active, the market gives some time for the trader for reflection & thinking.
Opening and managing on average 1-2 trades per trading session, the intraday trader is granted a certain degree of freedom.
However, with declining volatility, quite ofter intraday traders get a relatively low risk/reward ratio for their trades,
3️⃣ - Swing Trader
Swing trading is the best choice for traders having a full-time job.
Primarily being focused on daily/weekly time frames, swing trading is not demanding for a daily routine and aims at catching mid-term/long-term market moves.
With an average holding period being around 2 weeks and opening 1-2 trading positions per week, swing trading is considered to be the least emotional and involves low risk.
The main problem with swing trading is patience.
Correctly identifying the market trend and opening a trading position,
the majority tends to close their positions preliminary not being patient enough to let the price reach their target.
Which trading type do you prefer?
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
PSYCHOLOGY OF A TRADER | MASTER EMOTIONS & MASTER THE MARKET
The market is driven by people.
The crowds are always behind strong market rallies.
What the majority fails to recognize is the fact, that being chaotics in its nature, the markets are always trading in predictable patterns.
Believe it or now, but the market participants are driven by the same emotional impulses. It does not really depend on how wealthy is the person.
With the core motive being to make a ton of money with a little risk possible, we can derive a universal archetype.
Every asset, every financial instrument has an element of a "potential value". Being 100% subjective, an attempt to calculate the future value drives the market.
Depending on the current expectation of the crowd and its emotions it is necessary for a professional trader to learn to play with its behavior.
With many years of constant observations, the cyclic psychological curve was derived to explain the relationships between our emotions and market cycles.
On the chart, I have drawn 9 main stages of trader's psychology:
😶INDIFFERENCE - No opportunities are spotted, searching for the right pick.
🙂OPTIMISM – Positive outlook leading us to buy a certain asset
😃EXCITEMENT – Being initially right in our pick, we feel excited as bulls push the market to the new highs
The moment of happiness and feeling of being "a true investor"
🤑GREED – Being thrilled we start to ignore warning signs and add more and more cash to the market believing that the market will never stop.
😕ANXIETY – The market starts taking our gains back. Being biased and nihilistic we keep holding the position, thinking that it is just a pullback.
😩PANIC – Tremor. We are frozen. Emotions are draining our power. We are clueless and helpless. We totally lose the sense of control.
😭DEPRESSION – Position is closed. Money is lost. Considering trading & investment industry to be a scam.
🤔HOPE – The dawn. The market returns back to its normal state. Aspiration & desire to start again.
😆RELIEF – Again we start to believe in our strength. We return and the cycle repeats.
Do you recognize yourself in these stages?
Please, support our work with like and comment. It really helps.
PSYCHOLOGY OF A TRADER | MASTER EMOTIONS & MASTER THE MARKET
The market is driven by people.
The crowds are always behind strong market rallies.
What the majority fails to recognize is the fact, that being chaotics in its nature, the markets are always trading in predictable patterns .
Believe it or now, but the market participants are driven by the same emotional impulses . It does not really depend on how wealthy is the person.
With the core motive being to make a ton of money with a little risk possible, we can derive a universal archetype .
Every asset, every financial instrument has an element of a "potential value" . Being 100% subjective, an attempt to calculate the future value drives the market.
Depending on the current expectation of the crowd and its emotions it is necessary for a professional trader to learn to play with its behavior.
With many years of constant observations, the cyclic psychological curve was derived to explain the relationships between our emotions and market cycles.
On the chart, I have drawn 9 main stages of trader's psychology:
😶 INDIFFERENCE - No opportunities are spotted, searching for the right pick.
🙂 OPTIMISM – Positive outlook leading us to buy a certain asset
😃 EXCITEMENT – Being initially right in our pick, we feel excited as bulls push the market to the new highs
The moment of happiness and feeling of being "a true investor"
🤑 GREED – Being thrilled we start to ignore warning signs and add more and more cash to the market believing that the market will never stop.
😕 ANXIETY – The market starts taking our gains back. Being biased and nihilistic we keep holding the position, thinking that it is just a pullback.
😩 PANIC – Tremor. We are frozen. Emotions are draining our power. We are clueless and helpless. We totally lose the sense of control.
😭 DEPRESSION – Position is closed. Money is lost. Considering trading & investment industry to be a scam.
🤔 HOPE – The dawn. The market returns back to its normal state. Aspiration & desire to start again.
😆 RELIEF – Again we start to believe in our strength. We return and the cycle repeats.
Do you recognize yourself in these stages?
Please, support our work with like and comment. It really helps.
📚 Leveraged & Margin Trading Guide + Examples ⚖️
Leveraged trading allows even small retail traders to make money trading different financial markets.
With a borrowed capital from your broker, you can empower your trading positions.
The broker gives you a multiplier x10, x50, x100 (or other) referring to the number of times your trading positions are enhanced.
Brokers offer leverage at a cost based on the amount of borrowed funds you’re using and they charge you per each day that you maintain a leveraged position open.
For example, let's take EURUSD pair.
Let's buy Euro against the Dollar with the hope that the exchange rate will rise.
Buying that on spot with 1.195 ask price and selling that on 1.23 price we can make a profit by selling the same amount of EURUSD back to the broker.
With x50 leverage, our return will be 50 times scaled.
With the leverage, we can benefit even on small price fluctuations not having a huge margin.
❗️Remember that leverage will also multiply the potential downside risk in case if the trade does not play out.
In case of a bearish continuation on EURUSD, the leveraged loss will be paid from our margin to the broker.
For that reason, it is so important to set a stop loss and calculate the risks before the trading position is opened.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
👶 Trading For Beginners | ORDER TYPES 👦👧
There are multiple ways of opening a trade in a trading terminal.
Here is the list of universal order types that you MUST know:
1. Market Order
A market order is a trade order to buy or sell a desired financial instrument on a current market price.
In such an order type, the price is determined by the market.
Constant price fluctuations and spreads make market order quite risky way of opening a trading position.
2. Limit Order
A limit order is a trade order to buy or sell a desired financial instrument at a specific price level. It allows the trader to enter the market on a strict price level ignoring the price fluctuations and spreads.
A limit order can be referred to as a buy limit order or a sell limit order.
3. Buy/Sell Stop Order
Buy stop order is used to buy at a price above the market price, and it is triggered when the market price touches or goes through the Buy Stop leve.
Sell stop order is used to sell when a specified price is reached.
The selection of order types is based on a trader's trading style.
Let me know in a comment section which order types do you apply in your trading!
Please, like this post and subscribe to our tradingview page!
👶 Trading For Beginners | ORDER TYPES 👦👧
There are multiple ways of opening a trade in a trading terminal.
Here is the list of universal order types that you MUST know:
1. Market Order
A market order is a trade order to buy or sell a desired financial instrument on a current market price.
In such an order type, the price is determined by the market.
Constant price fluctuations and spreads make market order quite risky way of opening a trading position.
2. Limit Order
A limit order is a trade order to buy or sell a desired financial instrument at a specific price level. It allows the trader to enter the market on a strict price level ignoring the price fluctuations and spreads.
A limit order can be referred to as a buy limit order or a sell limit order.
3. Buy/Sell Stop Order
Buy stop order is used to buy at a price above the market price, and it is triggered when the market price touches or goes through the Buy Stop leve.
Sell stop order is used to sell when a specified price is reached.
The selection of order types is based on a trader's trading style.
Let me know in a comment section which order types do you apply in your trading!
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Predicting the Time-window for Turns, in all MarketsInexplicably, upon publishing this post, the Title Chart becomes distorted beyond recognition thus,
all references are to this Original Chart - below
Do markets trend on the medium term (months) and mean-revert on the long run (years)?
Does Black's intuition bear out that prices tend to be off approximately by a factor of 2? (Taking years to equilibrate.)
How does Technical Analysis , as a whole, act as a trend following system while Fundamental Analysis matters only once prices get way out of line?
Is mean-reversion a sufficient self-correcting mechanism to temper irrational exuberance in financial markets?
We examine these questions in the proceeding;
In his 1986 piece Fisher Black wrote:
"An efficient market is one in which price is within a factor 2 of value, i.e. the price is more than half of value and less than twice value. He went on saying: The factor of 2 is arbitrary, of course. Intuitively, though, it seems reasonable to me, in the light of sources of uncertainty about value and the strength of the forces tending to cause price to return to value. By this definition, I think almost all markets are efficient almost all of the time."
The myth that “informed traders" step in and arbitrage away any small discrepancies between value and prices never made much sense.
If for no other reason but the wisdom of crowds is too easily distracted by trends and panic.
Humans are pretty much clueless about the “fundamental value" of anything traded in markets, save perhaps a few instruments in terms of some relative value.
Prices regularly evolve pretty much unbridled in response to uninformed supply and demand flows, until the difference with value becomes so strong that some mean-reversion forces prices back to more reasonable levels.
Black imagined, Efficient Market Theory would only make sense on time scales longer than the mean-reversion time (TMR), the order of magnitude of which is set by S√TMR∼d.
For stock indices wit hS∼20%/year, makes TMR = ∼6 years.
The dynamics of prices within Black’s uncertainty band is in fact not random but exhibits trends: in the absence of strong fundamental anchoring forces, investors tend to under-react to news or take cues from past price changes themselves.
In fact, the notorious and unbridled reliance and un-anchored, speculative extrapolation is the mainstay of most investors, as well as Wall Street's itself, as it is the regular course of everyday "investing" across most asset classes.
In the following a picture emerges (and we test it), whether market returns are positively correlated on time scales TMR and negatively correlated on long time scales ∼TMR, before eventually following the (very) long term fate of fundamental value - in what looks like a biased geometric random walk with a non-stationary drift.
We have looked at a very large set of financial instruments, drawing on data sets from 1800 - 2020 (i.e. 220 years).
We applied the same method to all available data in Stocks, Bonds, FX, Commodity Futures and Spot Prices, the shortest data set going back 1955.
As it turns out that, in particular, mean-reversion forces start cancelling trend following forces after a period of around 2 years, and mean-reversion seems to peak for channel widths on the order of 50-100%, which corresponds to Black’s “factor 2”.
Mean-reversion appears as a mitigating force against trend following that allows markets to become efficient on the very long run, as anticipated previously by many authors.
Regarding the data we used for this study;
Commodity Data sets - Starting date
Natural Gas 1986
Corn 1858
Wheat 1841
Sugar 1784
Live Cattle 1858
Copper 1800
Equity Price data sets - Starting date
USA 1791
Australia 1875
Canada 1914
Germany 1870
Switzerlan 1914
Japan 1914
United Kingdom 1693
From trends to mean-reversion
The relation between past de-trended returns on scale t'< and future de-trended returns on scale t'>. Defining p(t) as the price level of any asset (stock index, bond,commodity, etc.) at time t. The long term trend over some ti scale T is defined as:
mt:=1Tlog .
For each contract and time t, we associate a point(x,y) where x is the de-trended past return on scale t'< and y the de-trended future return on
scale t>:x:= logp(t)−logp(t−t'<)−mtt'<;y:= logp(t+t'>)−logp(t)−mtm't'.
Note that the future return is de-trended in a causal way, i.e. no future information is used here (otherwise mean-reversion would be trivial). For convenience, both x and y are normalized such that their variance is unity.
Remarkably, all data,including futures and spot data lead to the same overall conclusions. See in chart; As the function of the past (time) horizon t'< (log scale) for Red & White Bars, the futures daily data and spot monthly data.
To compare the behaviour of the regression slope shown in the chart with a simple model, assume that the de-trended log-price pi(t) evolves as a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a positively correlated trending noise m.
It is immediately apparent from the dashed line in the chart that the prediction of such a model with g= 0.22, k−1= 16 years and y'−1= 33 days, chosen to fit the futures data and g= 0.33, k'−1= 8 years and gh'−1= 200 days, chosen to fit the spot data.
In the short term volatility of prices is simply given by S'2k's'.
Non-linear effects
A closer look at the plot(x,y )however reveals significant departure from a simple linear behaviour. One expects trend effects to weaken as the absolute value of past returns increases, as indeed reported previously. We have therefore attempted a cubic polynomial regression, devised to capture both potential asymmetries between positive and negative returns, and saturation or even inversion effects for large returns.
The conclusion on the change of sign of the slope around yt'<= 2 years is therefore robust. The quadratic term, on the other hand, is positive for short lags but becomes negative at longer lags, for both data sets. The cubic term appears to be negative for all time scales in the case of futures, but this conclusion is less clear-cut for spot data.
The behaviour of the quadratic term is interesting, as it indicates that positive trends are stronger than negative trends on short time scales, while negative trends are stronger than positive trends on long time scales.
A negative cubic term, on the other hand, suggests that large moves (in absolute value) tend to mean-revert, as expected, even on short time scales where trend is dominant for small moves. Taking these non-linearities into account however does not affect much the time scale for which the linear coefficient vanishes, i.e. roughly 2 years
Conclusion
Here we have provided some further evidence that markets trend on the medium term (months) and mean-revert on the long term (several years).
This coincides with Black’s intuition that prices tend to be off by a factor of 2.
It takes roughly 6 years for the price of an asset with 20 % annual volatility to vary by 50 %.
We further postulate the presence of two types of agents in financial markets:
Technical Analysts , who act as trend followers, and Fundamental Analysts , whose effects set in when the price is clearly out of whack. Mean-reversion is a self-correcting mechanism, tempering (albeit only weakly) the exuberance in financial markets.
From a practical point of view, these results suggest that universal trend following strategies should be supplemented by universal price-based “value strategies" that mean-revert on long term returns. As it's been observed before, trend-following strategies offer a hedge against market draw-downs while value strategies offer a hedge against over-exploited trends.
An easy yet super efficient trading strategy for any marketAn amazing combo strategy for trading.
Steps:
1. INTRUCTIONS
Plot the 7, 14, 33, 60 on the chart
Lets assume we use a 1h chart. For this we will plot on the support and resistance levels onto the chart using the 4hr or daily chart values.
For other timeframes, change the values with a 4-8x difference.
For this example I took BTCUSDT 1h, and you can see that the support and resistence on 4h is making the 30.5k - 41k channel more or less.
2. RULES
Once we have established and marked the territory zones , lets get down to business.
For the best results, it is best to enter the market when you find price hovering around a support or resistance level. Once price paints a confirmation candle you can enter the market, or you could wait until the 7 MA has crossed the
14 MA.
Entries at MAJOR support and resistance levels are key and will provide a greater return.
Always exit your trades once price returns to another support or resistance area. You can use the 33 and 60 MA as a stair stepper to get out of the market to protect your equity on your trades. However, re-entering the market once
you get confirmation of the market continuing in the original direction is a safe move.
Below you can find some examples for BTCUSDT 1H
3. RISK MANAGEMENT
For STOP LOSS you can use the value below the support zone, while for TP you can use either the resistence point or the support zone from the 33 or 60 SMA or a multiplier of the original distance below the support zone .