Get started

Inflation

BITCOIN- Ahead of Inflation Data (CPI Tomorrow)Hi everyone, watch the video and let me know your thoughts. I cover the main Technical levels you should know as well as the key fundamental factors and scenarios. Some good news arising today as FTX seems to have recovered 5 Billion dollars . The announcement substantially raises the total FTX has recovered since filing for bankruptcy last year but it's still short of what customers are owed in total. Still, good news. Not so great news from IMF : The International Monetary Fund says that 'The new year is going to be "tougher than the year we leave behind'... scary indeed as some say 2/3rds of the countries will enter into recession this year. More bad news here and there, from Europe, Canada, Australia. Just a little example from Canada: 'The CEOs at Canada's largest banks say tens of thousands of Canadians could default on mortgages due to rising rates. This comes as the vacancy rate at Canadian office buildings are at a record high ' Lastly, we have the FED's cornered between raising or not, for how long and how much? Employment was good last week and inflation report tomorrow will play a huge role. In general: good inflation tomorrow (lower inflation, eased) will probably be better news for markets and BTC/Alts as well. If inflation is high then we run for the hills as the Feds will need to consider new big rate hikes..most likely i think we will avoid this. KEY LEVELS: 18K : A third test is expected as the last 2 times we had rejections. This time we can go higher. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR PS. Remember the cycles: The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place at block 840,000 which is predicted to be on Mar 13, 2024 08:47:30 PM UTC.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
7
Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8..9% for this year. If this is true, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. Today’s content: Strategy in an inflationary environment: i. Commodity – Buy them ii. Stock market – Trade them Can inflation be hedged and can we trade into the interest rate uptrend? CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:US30YLong
by konhow
14
Why the CPI Report Matters and Could be a Bullish Catalyst As long as inflationary expectations remained low after Jerome's last speech where he spoke about softening the increase in interest rates, which may or may not be the case, there is a good chance that inflation ticks down. This would confirm a 50bp hike for December, easing monetary policy and providing room for equities to continue their rally. While I think a lower CPI report is more likely in the near-term than a tick up in inflation, with a possible higher than 50bp increase and a decline in equites, it could go either way. Later, when the lagging effects of QT are felt, I expect a further decline in the market as discussed in my previous thesis. It is also possible that inflation stays near its current 7.7%, in which case there may not be too large of a response in equity markets tomorrow. The bigger the move in CPI, the bigger the move in equites. VIX is inching up in anticipation of this binary event. I am linking this thesis with "long" because I believe the negative CPI trend will continue and result in a near-term rally, but this is only because I feel there is a higher probability of this occurring, not that it is by any means certain. InTheMoney
AMEX:SPYLong
by InTheMoneyAdam
8
Elliott Wave Review Ahead Of US CPI Data On EUR, NZD and BitcoinWe have a busy week ahead, with plenty of important data for the interest rates policy in US, UK and EU. We have US CPI already tomorrow, which will be interesting data as speculators will put their bets on FOMC decision which is scheduled a day later. From an Elliott wave perspective, I will focus on EURUSD and KIWI which can offer nice buying opportunities on a pullback. I will also look at bitcoin. Trade well, Grega
by ew-forecast
Metals to Break its All Time High AgainMetals to Break its All Time High. I have discussed about Gold before and in this tutorial we will study into Copper. From last week Fed chairman statement, he said “it is premature to be talking about pausing our rate hike. We have a ways to go." The continuous inflation is almost a certainty into next year, and what asset or instrument works well with inflation? Content: Why interest in copper again • Fundamental • Technical 5 Major Copper Uses: • Building Construction • Electronic Products • Transportation • Industrial Machinery & Equipment • Medical Copper Consumption Worldwide: 1. China 54% 2. Europe 15% 3. Other Asia 14% 4. America 11% 5. Other 6% Source: Statista 2021 Minimum fluctuation 0.0005 per pound = $12.50 0.001 = $25 0.01 = $250 0.1 = $2,500 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:HG1!
by konhow
2
63R booked this week. Update for 23rd of October 2022Hello everyone! What a fantastic week for trading! We made insane returns(best week of the year). I have covered all the assets we trade and i mention to be very careful of being overly bearish or bullish. There are a few macro headwinds that we have to be mindful of. Here is a list of some black swan events that you should be aware of: -China intervention on Yuan -BoJ(MoF) intervention on JPY - which we believe happened on Friday -UK's political drama -Russia-Ukraine War Events that you should be aware(Central Bank week Bonanza) : -Wednesday: -Australia CPI &China GDP -BoC Rate Decision Thursday: -ECB rate decision Friday: -BoJ rate decision I hope you enjoyed the video! Hit me up in the comments if you have any questions or you have another idea!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Inorogu
1
Inflation & Interest Rate Series – Below 5.3% is Crucial for CPIContent: • Why CPI must be below 5.3%? • Can we invest or trade or hedge into inflation? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Stay tuned for our next episode in this series, we will discuss more on the insight of inflation and rising interest rates. More importantly, how to use this knowledge, turning it to our advantage in these challenging times for all of us. Micro 5-Year Yield Futures 1/10 of 1bp = US$1 or 0.001% = US$1 3.000% to 3.050% = US$50 3.000% to 4.000% = US$1,000 See below ideas on the previous videos for this series.
CBOT_MINI:5YYU2022Education
by konhow
3
The Market Has Spoken - "Liquid Staking" is the FutureFollowing this week's inflation report and the much-anticipated "The Merge" on Ethereum's ecosystem, the crypto markets took a massive dip - in particular, ETH itself. This is the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern as the hype towards the merge date neared, then the massive-selloff right after. But not all coins were in the red - COSMOS (ATOM) did very well this week, and showed a very strong decoupling pattern from the rest of the pack. Why? Because they currently offer the best staking rewards (15%+!) out there, beating both the banks and its competitors by a very large margin. If you wanted to sell ETH but stay in crypto, it was the most obvious option to go with, at least on paper. ETH2 has the problem of being illiquid (there is no set date for when you can withdraw your funds), as well as expensive - which will likely lead to the coin struggling over the long-term as coins that offer low-fee liquid staking (ADA, XTZ, DOT, MATIC, AVAX, etc.) has had a much longer time. ETH2 "final form" isn't likely to happen any time soon (some say as long as 6 years) so they are currently behind the curve of industry standards, not ahead. Whether they can catch up to the rest is yet to be seen. Now that ETH has de-coupled itself from proof-of-work, we're going to start to see public attention towards different aspects of Web3 and DeFi - and staking rewards is likely to be the talk of the town, especially as we go further into the recession.
Long
by RyanTanaka