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Inflation

Proof-of-Stake Makes Their Move: Is Bitcoin In Trouble?This might be somewhat of a controversial take, but for a while I've been warning that Bitcoin's long-term prospects may be in trouble - a lot of it has to do with how the coin's community distanced itself from utility and business cases and leaned hard into the "store of value" idea during last year's hype. - The idea of "store of value" applies to all money and is not really a competitive advantage: all coins store value by default. - Bitcoin's block size limitation and efforts to make improvements on the protocol have largely been thwarted by the mining community who prefers the scarcity model and don't want things to change. - Bitcoin failed to rise in response to inflation like gold did: the "Bitcoin is good for inflation" thesis did not pan out in the last few rallies for alternative assets. - Bitcoin's recent attempts at defending their interests through the political system (Brad Sherman vs Aarika Rhodes, El Salvador) isn't getting the results that many of its supporters hoped for. And more people are starting to realize that its governance processes and scaling solutions are done off-chain - which clashes with the idea that the coin is completely decentralized. - Despite its attempt at differentiation, the data suggests that people buying stocks and people buying Bitcoin are often overlapped heavily, ever since it became much easier to acquire crypto assets through mainstream sources. Bitcoin's name-recognition may end up hurting them in the long-run since it's likely to go down with the fiat market as a whole. As inflation remains high (a record 8.6% in May in the US), the financial industry is starting to talk more about interest rates - during recessionary times people tend to favor reliable interest returns rather than speculation plays. As a result of this we see that crypto coins that offer staking rewards (Tezos - XTZ, Algorand - ALGO, Cardano - ADA; soon to be Ethereum - ETH and Chainlink - LINK) are starting to gain some momentum. Given that the banks have been hesitant to raise interest rates on their savings mechanisms (though they don't seem to have any problems raising interest rates on your mortgages/loans lol) the value that proof-of-stake coins offer in DeFi have started to look much more appealing. If these trends continue, the "flippening" may be sooner than we thought. (But not in the way that most thought it would go down - it may not even be Ethereum, if the merge doesn't go as planned over this summer.)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
1
Markets Unresponsive to ETH2's Test Merge: What's Rallying Now?Ethereum holders were hoping for a big rally after this week's "merge" on ETH's primary test network, Ropsten, but so far the markets have been responsive. Coins that offer staking rewards, however, did fairly well this week as a whole - the two winners being Tezos (XTZ) and Chainlink (LINK) which saw big gains today and over the course of this week as a whole. Tezos: - Fork-less upgrades and on-chain governance models on XTZ provide tangible solutions to a lot of the issues the crypto industry is going through right now, especially in DAOs. - Recession talks are getting more people into a savings mindset - and Tezos' accessible and competitive rates (4.6%) makes it very appealing for crypto holders to convert to. - The interest in NFTs from artists and art collectors are starting to migrate over to chains like XTZ ever since gas-fees started to get out of control on the ETH ecosystems - time will tell if the Consensys "Merge" in August will have developers and artists return but for now, Tezos and other layer 2s are taking advantage of the lull and pulling ahead. Chainlink: - Working on many background infrastructure projects at high levels. - Has an interesting history (which involves the 4chan crowd, oddly enough) that gave it a cult-like status a few years ago that seems to be paying off today. -- While the crypto market as a whole has remained fairly flat-lined this week, the projects with the biggest gains seem to have a few things in common: the offer of staking rewards; and a visible community backing the project during its downturns, thus "buying the dip". If you're a long-term trader, these trends are positive signs that the asset has real resilience behind them. www.forbes.com
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
2
DAX Squeeze over? Downside TargetsEU Oil embargo on China and record German Inflation is a toxic mix that may short circuit the DAX short squeeze. Sellers are worried about inflation and the EU news has seen Oil push up to $118 overnight so if the market wants to worry it has more than enough reason especially if it goes higher above $120. Targets are 1-2 day down towards 14300-14200, a new high above 14650 negates the trade and perhaps signals bear market in trouble. easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. “Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party."
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by easyMarkets
A Fork in the Road: How Will the Recession Affect Crypto?The more positive way of looking at LUNA, and other crypto disasters in general, is that these sorts of systemic problems eventually all get caught as the foundation falls underneath. In fiat, these sorts of issues get covered up, bailed-out, and hidden behind tools like quantitative easing as people get pushed out into the streets through inflation and housing scarcity and such. It's a more socially acceptable form of exploitation in a way - with the worst of them actually dipping into taxpayer money and public funds. Just ask the exploited classes about this stuff - they know all about it. Keep in mind that Bernie Madoff was able to get away with his racket for 17 years because the market generally always kept on going up. When the recession hits, we're going to start seeing the ugly undersides of what's been going on in fiat, too. Ponzi schemes are not exclusive to crypto, and there's a lot of pot calling the kettle black arguments floating around, especially in finance. The guilty conscience often attacks what they themselves are doing. The big question for crypto holders is what happens when the recession hits - there's primarily two different types of outlooks in the space right now. The pessimistic outlook is that when fiat goes down, so does crypto, as it has typically done for most of its runs. The optimistic outlook is that Bitcoin itself was born out of the recession and controversy of 2008, where it has experienced the biggest of its returns. Both are true, but how 2022 turns out will largely depend on how secure people are feeling about their money in general. A couple of things that make the economy of the US today unprecedented, compared to recessions in the past: - A historic 8%+ inflation rate which has not yet shown signs of slowing down. - Interest rates will likely be raised to the highest it's been in recent history (possibly 3%, but likely higher). - A massive 36% increase in money supply since 2020, mostly gone to government spending relating to COVID. - High costs of living and new remote work options driving record amounts of people out of the cities (where the housing prices are the most inflated). - The US government has been in massive debt for a while and have been using "fixes" like quantitative easing to kick the can down the road. It's been relying on money printing and taxing capital gains in order to pay off its bills but if the economy goes into a recession, that will no longer be an option. Some people say that this is the "day of reckoning" for the US economy coming that has long been overdue. Which way will the tides swing for crypto and Web3? Time will tell.
Long
by RyanTanaka
1
Trading plan and review of Key Levels for major marketsReview of the key levels in the major markets as global markets continue to bounce and find more buyers. Powell was concerned for the high inflation levels and hinted at being more aggressive if needed sending bond yields higher. Traders focused on the stronger than expected economic numbers and the resilience of the US consumer. USD fell away from highs as safe havens exited. The general trend for major Indexes remains down with the USD, Inflation and Interest Rate Rises in focus. BITCOIN and ETHEREUM remained around lows as buyers remained on the sidelines unwilling to again follow share markets higher. Expect that if share Indexes again turn south, cryptos may take another hit. Markets covered US - DOW, Nasdaq and SP500 Europe - DAX and FTSE100 Asia - Hang Seng, ASX200 and Nikkei FX - Dollar Index (USD), EURUSD , GBPUSD , AUDUSD and USDJPY Commodities - GOLD , Oil and Copper Crypto - Bitcoin and Ethereum
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by TradeTheStructure
Interest Rates vs Everyone - How Crypto Can Bounce BackA pretty rough week for the markets - especially crypto. The recent dips are a result of mainstream money (crypto curious, but not necessarily dedicated) leaving the space as a response to inflation woes and the Federal Reserve planning to increase interest rates over 2022. The US housing markets are also set to slow down as well, possibly leading to a recession in the US markets and the global economy as a whole. What's the silver lining? Well, the last time the housing market dipped was in 2008-2012, which coincides directly when Bitcoin itself was invented by Satoshi Nakamoto. Will the same sort of sentiment emerge as a result of fiat money crashing this time around? Time will tell.
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by RyanTanaka
2
BITCOIN - Live Update and what to expect Next (+CPI tomorrow)Bitcoin has ended up going sideways today as expected: The price has lost a Key level (38300) which was the lower end of an ascending channel. This is now a HUGE resistance that most likely will take time to overcome and break back over (not to mention that the 40k is just above it..difficult right now). Today the rejection at 32300 was eminent and we do expect the 30k mark being tested again (or twice most likely). If that level is lost then the 28k is a huge support to have in mind for potentially life changing Buying orders (yes..exactly as you hear it). CPI TOMORROW: Inflation data will be released tomorrow and the number is expected to be HOT for the economy as years of loose policies, the pandemic and most recently Ukraine have added fuel to the fire (expensive fuel). The rate hikes are meant to help the situation but that will take time.. and might even require a recession... Bitcoin can shine because of it's deflationary aspect; a well thought element that Satoshi added to the perfect mix; the Bitcoin code. What to expect: - a test of 30k until tomorrow - a spike tomorrow during CPI data release - a rejection at 32600 or 33800 - a few days or weeks of sideways movement between 28 and 38k (not a small range) One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
by FX_Professor
3
Real vs. Digital Gold: How Does Crypto Survive the Bear Market?An analysis of the recent dip in crypto (and stocks as a whole), similarities and differences from the 2017 rally (and crash), and how it might affect the trajectory of the crypto ecosystem as a whole. The money leaving the space currently is likely mostly from traditional investor types who probably saw the NFT/crypto craze in the media and got curious, but got spooked by recent news about inflation and increased interest rates by the Federal Reserve. This is why we see a pretty clear pattern groups that correlate performance with mind-share and media presence (traditional stocks, major coins , and altcoins). Gold - real gold, not traditional - on the other hand, is doing really well right now since it is often touted as a hedge against inflation and that seems to have panned out. But we don't see the same pattern emerging with Bitcoin today - a coin that has long argued that it was basically "Gold 2.0". Is the idea that Bitcoin is a hedge over, or is it just beginning? As an aside, I compared CryptoKitties with the more recent Bored Ape Yacht Club project and found that the two projects were very similar - almost identical, in a way. History does repeat itself, it seems.
OTC:AUGGLong
by RyanTanaka
How Developing Countries Predicted the Rise of the MetaverseThe market is down right now but these are also good times to take a look at what might be the "next big thing". Had you got into the metaverse a year ago, you will most likely be up right now. Otherwise, you're probably in the red. (Yes, even Bitcoin and Ethereum.) The metaverse is this year's clear winner in terms of performance, and it's not too surprising that a lot of big name brands have decided to try to get in on it, too. A lot of people claim that Zuckerberg's "Meta" was what sparked the metaverse craze, but if you look at AXS's chart it's pretty clear that the coin was climbing way before the media gave the idea any attention. A lot of innovations and early-adoption activities happen in lesser-known (often non-English speaking and developing) countries before making its way into the "mainstream", so to speak. Predicting long-term trends is not magic - you just need to know where to look.
COINBASE:MANAUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
Interest rates, Inflation and how to trade it.Hey Traders, Massive week this week fundamentally for the Forex market. 3 big interest rate decisions being released so I thought there was no better time than now to have a chat about what it is, what it indicates and finally, how traders profit from it. Fed and BOE almost guaranteed to hike rates, RBA is sitting unsure. Have a watch of the video and I am more than happy to have a discussion in the comment section! As always, have a fantastic trading week and I wish you all many profits.
Education
by the5erstrading
4
AUD/USD & AUD/JPY Analysis / Iron Ore & InflationThe Australian Dollar has weakened in recent weeks due to Iron Ore prices declining as China's zero covid policy has caused investors to fear a slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy. Australia exports 80% of Iron ore to China, so any slowdown in China will hit demand for Australia's commodity exports and put downward pressure on the currency. We also have Australian inflation data out tomorrow, which could surprise to the upside and beat economists' forecast, causing a rally higher in the Australian Dollar on rate hike expectations. In this video I break down what could play out and how to make money from the potential outcomes.
COMEX:TIO1!Long
by KayansMarkets
GBP/USD - Short Sell Fundamental and Technical Set Up UpdateThe Pound has extended its weakness against the U.S Dollar as the UK economy slips closer to a recession. The UK cost of living crisis, which is down to high energy prices, rising taxes, and now higher interest rates is increasing the public mortgage, credit cards, car loans, student debt and other debt payments, causing investors to question the amount of interest rate hikes the Bank of England can deliver without causing a recession. I break this down in more detail in the video.
Short
by KayansMarkets
🏆 CPI: Greatest Bull Of All Times 🏆CPI report is being released in a few minutes and it's expected to be INFLATED... Inflation is the Greatest Bull of All Times, something like Michael Jordan of the Chicago Bulls: The trade we like to take at every CPI report is Bitcoin LONG: Just remember to have some patience (buy a dip if you see it?) and most importantly: HEDGE witha short on Nasdaq (That's what we do here and it works nicely, do your research and do as you please at your own risk). Americans blame it on Putin but this is partially the truth... CPI was exploding anyways, it has to do with printing more than it has to do with invading Ukraine: nypost.com let's wish for PEACE. The professor is EXTREMELY DISSAPOINTED by the World Leaders and all the nonsense. US and Russia need to come to reason and stop fighting till the 'Last Ukrainian'. All this horrible situation must stop NOW before more people die and before inflation destroys everything..unless that's what the big bosses are aiming for... ..in the meantime, Buy some Bitcoin maybe? Do as you please and as you know. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR PS. This is NOT the planet we signed up for! I want to post about geopolitics here soon, even if many will disagree with all I want to say: I am furious with Russia and the US, with Europe and Greece and also Zelensky. There is a LOT of shit on all sides, just sad. Very sad!
FRED:CPIAUCSLLong
by FX_Professor
2
GOLD: The Short-term Structure Looks Bearish Fed hawkish policy to fight inflation is putting in a high on GOLD. It's also about the speculation of how many hikes may happen this year. However, if FED will suddenly turns out to be less aggressive then this will quickly stabilize the gold prices, but for now, it looks like the current tone will not change so metals have room for more weakness. At the same time I am also looking at DXY that is trying to break out of a triangle and towards 100 level. Have a nice trading week everyone. Grega
TVC:DXYShort
by ew-forecast
What Will Happen to Crypto During a Recession or Stagflation?Inflation in the US markets hit 7.9% last month - while the Federal Reserve was claiming that inflation was "transitory" all of 2021, realizing the US dollar may be in risk of systemic collapse they finally started to consider the possibility of raising interest rates (it's been near 0% for almost a decade now) -- arguably their only weapon to combat inflation at this point. (As a reference, Russia's interest rate jumped to 20%+ after their stock market collapsed after their invasion of Ukraine in late Feb.) Increased interest rates means higher interest rates on loans, which is good for savings but bad for investment since loans become more expensive to do. Experts are predicting that a recession -- possibly a global recession -- is looming in the horizon. What does this mean for crypto? Given that crypto's massive jump in 2020-2021 took most people by surprise there isn't too much reliable data out there but there's a few things we might be able to discern based on a few data points: - Crypto adoption tends to be high in countries with unstable economies; the rankings vary from study to study but adoption rates in Ukraine was high, even before the war. (The US and Russia usually in the top 10.) It's interesting to note that the inflation rate in Ukraine in 2015 was almost 50% -- which makes assets like Bitcoin and other currencies much more appealing. If the major superpowers' economies become unstable, we may start to see similar patterns emerge as a result. (Japan's inflation rate has been very low for decades and their crypto adoption rates are also very low, despite being relatively friendly to the technology itself.) - In terms of raw numbers, India has, by far, the highest number of people who own crypto (~100 million+) but their inflation rate has been climbing gradually in a similar pattern to the US in 2021. (With the officials telling people the same exact story as the Federal Reserve in the US last year -- "don't worry, it already peaked." 😂). In the same vein, most developed countries are in the same boat as the US right now as the disruptions on the global supply chain (due to COVID restrictions) continues to push inflation higher almost everywhere. - In the short/medium term, the proposed solution by the Federal Reserve (a marginal 0.25% interest rate increase in March) isn't very likely to make that much of a difference until the Feds start to get more aggressive with the hikes. (Which they have considered as a possibility, but are wary of announcing since they know it may trigger a downturn in the markets.) Inflation is very likely to continue for the rest of 22', in other words. - As of 20-21' lots of money has been thrown at crypto, DeFi, metaverse, and NFT projects both in business and personal deals -- many of them tied to traditional contracts in USD or fiat. (Although typically ill-advised, some people have been taking out cheap loans for crypto.) As fiat currencies become weaker, these fiat-crypto hybrid contracts are less likely to become common place, but will still make "pure" crypto deals more appealing. We might be able to estimate how much fiat money is tied to crypto assets based on market presence - BTC is the highest, by far, followed by ETH, DOGE, ADA, SHIB, XRP, DOT, SOL, etc. Coins that relied on marketing dollars to stay afloat (since it's currently only spendable in fiat money) are likely to be the most vulnerable. - During bull runs like the ones we've seen in 20-21', marketing/hype tends to reign supreme since cheap loans and rising prices tends to create a short-term market for pump-and-dump projects. During recessionary periods, however, crypto projects with more utility is likely to come out ahead. (As Vitalik Buterin says -- he "welcomes" a crypto winter so that more serious projects can finally get the attention that they deserve.) But we don't really know if a weakened USD or fiat as a whole really will lead to a "winter" -- there is also the chance that fiat money will run to crypto as a refuge, pumping up the price as a whole. Traditional finance outsizes crypto by a huge margin, after all -- all it takes is a small % of the former to affect the latter in an exponential way.
Long
by RyanTanaka
1
Oil up 38% in 7 days! When to sell?Oil exploding higher again making a 7 day run of 38% and XLE running up 14%. Long-term XLE is my play, raking in the dividends but taking profits relatively soon might be wise. We are right at the resistance level for XLE that looks to be pretty heavy but that resistance isn't like the Ukrainian military so I think it's more likely we blow through that level if oil continues. it cannot continue at this pace for long and that's why I want to be taking profits. If you're trading in the futures market then you have a much better chance of pulling in some high percentage gains in the short run as I believe somewhere above $150/ barrel you will find resistance and it will come crashing down. The question really is, where is the new support? As long as this war continues I think we will stay above $78/ barrel as the new support level. especially with inflation. If WW3 cracks off, all bets are off and I wouldn't see it falling below $100. That being said, XLE won't experience the same type of gains in the short run as a trade. As soon as oil sells off people will sell XLE hard because they are really betting on future gains of the sales of gasoline which won't be there if oil has come back down. The catch is if oil continues to stay elevated and without any subsidies from the government, then there will be less driving which means fewer sales and XLE will be falling. This is why I think it's wise to take profits on the way up, find a huge sell-off and get back in position on the way down. As we are likely heading into a recession I may roll some of this into TLT for the short run as I exit don't he way up to potentially make some gains in TLT without taking the risk in XLE. As XLE falls when oil pops the lit off, that's when I take my gains in TLT and roll it into XLE again for a longer trade but increasing my position by 20-30%,
AMEX:XLELong
by DefyingFinance
Inflation Higher Tomorrow? They changed their Calculation!Yeah, you heard that right. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has an announcement on their site saying, " Starting in January 2022, weights for the Consumer Price Index will be calculated based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020. The BLS considered interventions, but decided to maintain normal procedures. " They are changing their weighting. Does this raise inflation or lower it? Well, that depends. Based on the year-over-year percentage of change they are going back to 2019-2020 numbers which happen to be lower. That would suggest inflation may report lower and that will be the headline news report which is very unfair to everyone because it's a lie. If they adjust the weighting higher though it may even our or be higher. Used cars, oil, and energy are clearly much higher over the last year but they won't be using those numbers. What happens the following year when they do? Or, do they change the numbers again on us? Elections are coming so be watching for all kinds of bogus strategies for these politicians to take power over each other. Know, that inflation is the expansion of the money supply, NOT rising prices. Know that for the long run, they won't stop printing money until this blows up on someone's watch. Could that be in the next 10 years? I think it's highly likely.
FRED:CPIENGSLLong
by DefyingFinance
1
XLE to hit $130 by Jan 2025 a 300% gain from 2020 lowsCheck out the two trends prior to this. Clearly, you can see the run of over 300% that was 6 years long and then another 5-year trend at 142% gain. I believe we have entered commodities run and companies that produce oil and sell gasoline or diesel are going to benefit hugely. I am making a call that by January of 2025 we will see XLE at $130. Even if it doesn't, WTI Crude will hit that $130 mark. Two calls right there I think are very realistic repeating that 5-6 year trend which also matches the first 300% gain although the climb may be steeper. I think that climb coincides with how much inflation we have so I believe it's still a fair analysis overall. If you have not watched my recent video on hyperinflation, I suggest you do. At least go compare a 1month chart of the M2 money supply (M2SL) to the SPX. Hand a hand increases and parabolic running back to 1960. It looks to be sometime around 2025 we hit our first level of lift-off, straight up as the curve stops and begins to head to the moon. This happens to land around my chart here with XLE being at $130 by 2025. After 2025 all bets are off. WE could be heading into a massive inflationary person and it could be a billion per share or something crazy. That number won't matter anymore of course as it's only nominal.
AMEX:XLELong
by DefyingFinance
How Will Increased Interest Rates in the USD Affect Crypto? Now that the Federal Reserve seems committed to raising interest rates in response to inflation (something that they denied was a problem during 2021) we're going to see a shift in the way money is talked about in the near future. What does this mean for crypto, and the greater economy, overall? - The US growth and assets markets have been driven strongly by the availability of cheap loans since 2008, an era that is now coming to a close because the only way to avoid a hyper-inflationary economy in the USD right now is to raise interest rates. - The historic rate at which the US Treasury printed money -- largely justified through COVID woes -- is extreme and it's TBD whether or not the proposed rates will be enough to offset its after-effects. (Was initially 2%, now proposed to ~3%.) The government is broke and has no other choice. - Higher interest rates are generally bad for "risk-takers" in the market, but good for people who like to save. The idea of the government and financial sectors actively encouraging people to save, however, has been missing from the mainstream narratives for a while. Whether or not the institutions can adapt fast enough to form a holistic plan in the midst of the turmoil is yet to be seen. The condition has been around long enough that this scenario will be new to even "experienced" financial experts out there. - This presents a new economic landscape/opportunity for entrepreneurs and investors looking to capitalize on the change. But in this environment, the "slow growth" approach is likely to be more successful than the marketing-driven hype markets that has dominated the scene for the last 10-15 years. (Yes, even in crypto. ex. SHIB, NFT-hype.) - Generally speaking, countries with higher inflation rates tend to have higher crypto adoption rates as well. Will the same happen to crypto, NFTs, and metaverse -based assets? Time will tell -- but now crypto at least has the title of an "alternative asset" with the potential for high growth, especially since it's not affected by supply chain issues that traditional assets are tied into right now. - Since 2021 there have been a lot of crypto-based projects that have tied itself into the USD markets through traditional legal arrangements and contracts (as opposed to "pure" crypto investments that aren't concerned with what the traditional markets are doing right now) -- this money is more likely to run in parallel to the outcomes that fiat money will face as the interest rates start to ramp up in 2022.
Long
by RyanTanaka