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Market Outlook Feb 14th--->Feb 18th $SPYBreakdown of Each chart Top left - S&P 500 / General market Bottom left - QQQ / Nasdaq / Tech sector Top right- XLF / Financial sector Bottom right- Dollar index Recap Investors went on another wild ride this week, but ultimately US stock indices finished modestly below where they started. Trading remained choppy as traders digested another slew of earnings reports around the release of key US inflation data. Even before the CPI print inflation worries percolated, copper, iron ore, timber and coffee prices surged garnering attention. Quarterly earnings conference calls were rife with commentary about the expectation that companies will continue to raise prices through the remainder 2022 to offset rising supply chain costs. Also, a protest by Canadian truckers over vaccine mandates shut down several key bridges on the US/Canada border resulting in significant down time at multiple US automobile OEM facilities. WTI crude hit a fresh 8-year high on Friday spurred by reports that the US government now believes Russian President Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine. Thursday’s January CPI release spooked markets yet again, after coming in substantially hotter than already-goosed market expectations, reaching the highest annual pace since 1982. The upside surprise in the core index was spread across a wide range of categories, including some that have been heavily influenced by bottlenecks and others where price pressures could be viewed as more likely to stick. Stock markets came under pressure and Treasury yields immediately shot up on the news, led by the 2-year yield which surged 25 basis points, the largest daily gain since 2009. The 10-year yield retook 2% for the first time since 2019, but investors were also quick to fret over the narrowing of spreads or the curve flattening and what it might signal about future growth prospects. Futures markets quickly saw the odds of a 50 basis point March rate hike rise above 50%. By Friday, investment houses were aggressively ratcheting up their Federal Reserve tightening expectations after FOMC voter Bullard called for a 50bps hike in March, while also indicating significant quantitative tightening (balance sheet reduction) and perhaps intra-meeting hikes may also be necessary to get inflation under control. For the week, the S&P lost 1.8%, the DJIA was off 1%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.2% In corporate news this week, Disney shares rose after reporting strong quarterly results, boosted by robust theme park attendance and higher than anticipated streaming service subscriber growth. Pfizer dropped after issuing a weaker 2022 outlook than expected, and late in the week said it would delay its application to the FDA to expand its Covid vaccine to kids under 5 until April. On the supply chain front, Intel’s CEO said the company expects chip wafer supply to remain tight through 2023, while FMC Corp noted they have seen initial signs of packaging costs easing. Republic Services confirmed plans to buy US Ecology for $2.2B in cash, and Republic added it plans to pursue additional tuck-in acquisitions in the environmental solutions sector.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
Market Outlook Feb 7th--->Feb 11th $SPYBreakdown of Each chart Top left - S&P 500 / General market Bottom left - QQQ / Nasdaq / Tech sector Top right- XLF / Financial sector Bottom right- Dollar index Recap for last week. Momentum from last Friday’s melt up in US equity markets carried over this week when US trading got under way. Oversold conditions coming out of a horrific January opened the door for a modest reawaking in growth stocks amid a likely heavy dose of short covering as the calendar turned to February. Investors debated whether the choppy, violent bounce in equities was anything more than a typical bear-market-type rally ahead of catalytic earnings reports and central bank meetings scheduled for later in the week. WTI crude oil prices continued to surge, surpassing the $90 mark after OPEC+ producers stayed the course regarding expected output increases at their February conclave. Also EU CPI figures remained stubbornly high, and ongoing hawkish Fed rhetoric kept investors on edge about the expect path of Federal Reserve tightening. By midweek, risk assets, namely equities, came under some pressure after a few high-profile earnings duds combined with hawkish, overseas central bank commentary. Several BOE members dissented to Wednesday’s 25 basis point hike, wanting to see England’s central bank raise by a more aggressive 50 bps instead. Following that, the European Central clearly pivoted as ECB Chief Lagarde was unwilling to repeat the recent mantra that rates were “unlikely” to rise this year. The US dollar softened against both the Pound and the Euro. Rates moved up globally and spreads between Germany and the periphery widened. By the end of week the German BUND reached +20 basis points. Trading remained very choppy into and after Friday’s January US employment report blew away depressed expectations on nearly all accounts brining focus squarely back onto the US Federal Reserve. The 5.7% y/y gain in hourly wages stuck out in particular. To this point, there has been little indication in the composition of the rise in CPI that wage pressures are passing directly through to prices, but that concern may now be increasingly on the Fed’s radar. The US 2-year Treasury yield jumped above 1.3% while futures markets saw the odds of a 50 bps hike at either the March or May FOMC meeting creep higher. The benchmark US 10-year yield moved back above 1.9%, levels not seen since late 2019 while EU rates continued to track higher. For the week, the S&P gained 1.6%, the DJIA was up 1%, and the Nasdaq added 2.4%. In corporate news this week, earnings season entered its stride, with a slew of major tech companies reporting quarterly data. Facebook parent Meta’s shares saw a historic post-earnings drop this week, hitting their lowest since mid-2020, after issuing an ugly forecast amid pressure from competition and further fallout from iOS privacy changes. Google parent Alphabet posted a beat on its top and bottom line, as its ad revenue jumped 33% year on year to over $61B, and the tech giant announced a 20-for-1 stock split. PayPal shares hit a two-year low after cutting its user numbers outlook and cautioning that growth would be hit by supply chain pressures, inflation, and weakening e-commerce activity. Snap issued a beat on revenue, earnings, and user growth, sending shares up over 50%, recouping and then some earlier losses spurred on by the Facebook fallout earlier in the week. AMD reported a hot quarter, recording record revenue and forecasting a strong 2022, despite ongoing supply chain issues. Clorox posted an ugly miss on EPS and guidance, citing a challenging cost environment. AT&T dropped after confirming plans to cut its dividend following the spin-off of WarnerMedia.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
Bitcoin Undecided and a Look at some Altcoins(0:40) #DXY #Dollar Index - dropping (1:10) #VIX #Fear #Index - spiking (2:30) #DJIA (2:50) #SNP (3:00) #Nasdaq (3:10) #QQQ (3:25) #BTC.D (3:51) #EthUSD (4:15) #BTCUSD - Bitcoin is still overall in bullish territory. A drop below our black ascending trendline would cause me to become bearish, if confirmed on the daily. This still has not occurred. (6:22) #altcoins #agldusd #btrstusd #jasmyusd etc. - All altcoins are depending upon the big dawg at this point, #BTC
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
2
Market Outlook Jan 31--->Feb 4th $SPYBreakdown of Each chart Top left - S&P 500 / General market Bottom left - QQQ / Nasdaq / Tech sector Top right- XLF / Financial sector Bottom right- Dollar index The Beijing Winter Olympics are almost here, shadowed by boycotts, fear of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine and of course the coronavirus. There’s been no shortage of issues for other nations to protest about, from the case of the missing tennis star to Beijing’s comprehensive effort to snuff out free speech and a free press in Hong Kong. But the biggest source of ire from the West and elsewhere has been China’s detention and treatment of more than a million Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang. The presence of thousands of foreign athletes from countries that value free speech may be risky for President Xi Jinping, who seeks to cement (maybe lifetime) control over China with a third term. Avoiding controversy could be key. As for athletes, keep an eye on Eileen Gu, China’s American-born star. Cryptocurrencies won’t go up just because they’re going mainstream, at least according to Goldman Sachs. There’s growing concern about criminal activity in the digital asset market, too, while regulators wonder whether 18% yields on crypto savings accounts might be too tempting. Russian President Vladimir Putin may be a fan of crypto mining, but memories of 2018 are sparking fears among the Bitcoin faithful. Biden has been saying that his economic plan is working, and America’s GDP, record job growth and rising wages arguably support his case. But consumer confidence has yet to reflect that, with supply chain issues and (relatedly) the “I” word being all the rage. Many economists have predicted inflation will fall to 3% as the year progresses, and the Fed’s rate-hike plans are part of that. But others see inflation being stickier. An omicron subvariant appears to be even more contagious than the original fast-spreading strain, U.K. health authorities said, though vaccine booster shots remain an effective shield. The new version is already in dozens of countries, including across America. Data from contact-tracing shows the subvariant, BA.2, spreads more frequently in households, where the rate of transmission is 13.4%, compared to 10.3% for the original omicron. In the U.S., some 60 million households have availed themselves of free Covid-19 tests being distributed by a Biden administration program. A drug developed by Merck showed activity versus omicron in six lab studies, raising confidence it may be useful in battling the variant. While the initial omicron wave has peaked in some places, worldwide it continues to infect millions daily. There were 3.5 million new confirmed infections and 10,200 Covid-related deaths on Thursday alone. Over the past two years, there have been 364 million confirmed cases and 5.6 million deaths , though the actual numbers are likely much higher. Airlines are avoiding much of Ukrainian airspace as Russia continues to mass troops and equipment on that nation’s borders, stirring global fears of another unprovoked attack on its neighbor. Many carriers have largely avoided overflights since 2014 following the deaths of 298 people from 10 countries—including the Netherlands, Indonesia and Australia—when a Russian-made missile downed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in eastern Ukraine. An international probe concluded Moscow-backed separatists who have been fighting Ukrainian forces since Russia annexed Crimea were behind the mass killing. Russia has denied any role, though Australia and the Netherlands accused the Kremlin of complicity. Meanwhile, the U.S. is calling for a United Nations Security Council meeting in which Russia would be asked to explain its moves toward Ukraine, a session that may evoke memories of a 1962 UN meeting following the discovery of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba . Ukraine’s leaders, for their part, appear less worried that an attack is coming.
TVC:DXYLong
by WallSt007
DXY (Dollar/USD) Technical Analysis & Forecast - Still BullishTraders, The dollar (DXY) has been rising higher as expected. 2 weeks ago we published an update in which we mentioned that dollar was simply taking a healthy correction for the next move upwards. Dollar Index has exactly done that. It has tested an FCP zone and trend lines and gone up for parabolic move. Dollar can still rise to 100, 103, 105, 113 on the bullish side. There are several gaps available on the dollar which means that at some point in time it will fall to 90 but when, that no one knows. So manage your positions and risk. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:DXYLong
by vikinsa
6
BTC Uncertainty to the Bearish SideQuick update. Ive been out because of bronchitis, but I am getting better. I hope everyone is doing well and healthy. As usual, I do not like deviations from the normal spots. Even in the 2020 buy up, things got bought where they looked nice. I dont feel that way about some of these stocks and BTC this time. When i say crappy video at the start, I mean the linked idea. Its yikes, but all I could do while struggling. So I wanted to make a better video to update my thoughts since we have deviated.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TrendLINEBoys
EUR into deep waters? Forex update Bull vs Bear Academy++++++++++++++++++++++++ no financial advice ++++++++++++++++++++++++ On the second trading day of the week, the euro struggles against a downward trend and is on the brink. Dollar is dominating and gold may make another upward move? Thanks for watching and any interaction! +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Contact me NOW if you want to have the following: - ✍️ Analyzes every day – crypto and forex - 📈 Our self programmed wavereader – a force in any market - 🗣 Our personal trading setups - 🥇 Education in Elliott Waves , Gann and more (videos and scripts) - 🏆 Discussing trading ideas with our community, that we have trained
by UnknownUnicorn9344165
8
$DXY Dollar Is Still Bullish After Expected Correction #dollar Traders, DXY Dollar Is Still Bullish After Expected Correction. We have been expecting this correction as it had reached an FCP zone where it consolidated for quite a while. This correction that we had was a shallow one so if the USDOLLAR picks up momentum, it can again go into the next leg upwards parabolically. On the higher time frame we still have structure intact and W pattern is still in the formation which can push the price further upwards. A fall below these trendlines and confirmation can give us short opportunities in this market but trade what you see and take one step at a time. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:DXYLong
by vikinsa
3