Get started

J-DXY

High Timeframe Analysis of the Dollar Index DXY - Short IdeaDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only, showing how I intend to participate in this market. Trading involves significant risk. Do your own due diligence. Utilizing my Multi Timeframe strategy, I have identified that I would like to look for SHORTS on DXY. To clarify, I'm not saying I'm blindly shorting this market. If I see price action that checks the boxes for this strategy, I will take the short. Until then, I do NOTHING. SETUP - > TRIGGER - > FOLLOW THROUGH. Feel free to shoot me a message with any questions. Have a great week!
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by Tradius_Trades
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 8th—> Sept 13th)Hello Investors! 🌟 September started with a sharp decline as investors pruned risk assets from their portfolios amid concerns over US economic data and rising worries about growth. Let’s break down the key events that influenced the markets this week. 📉 Market Overview: The week opened with a broad sell-off across equities, commodities, and crypto, as US Treasury yields dropped to their lowest levels in more than a year. Disappointing August ISM manufacturing data set the tone for a week of worse-than-expected economic readings, stoking fears that the elusive “soft landing” may be slipping further away. US equities gave back all the gains made in the second half of August, with much of the selling attributed to multiple compression, particularly in technology stocks. Nvidia was the most prominent example, with its stock falling ~25% from its earnings peak amid historic daily declines in market cap. The S&P 500 faced resistance near the 5,600 level, struggling above 20x next year’s earnings. By the end of the week, the S&P lost 4.2%, the Dow dropped 2.9%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 5.8%, marking the tech index’s worst decline since November 2022. Stock Market Performance: 📉 S&P 500: Down by 4.2% 📉 Dow Jones: Down by 2.9% 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 5.8% Economic Indicators: WTI Crude Oil: Prices slid to their lowest levels since June 2023, prompting OPEC+ to extend its 2.2M bpd voluntary production cuts through November. Bank of Canada: Cut rates by 25 basis points in a move to boost economic growth, while PM Trudeau faced political challenges after losing support from a key coalition partner. JOLTS Jobs Data: Missed estimates significantly, falling below 8M job openings for just the second time this year. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers dropped below a key Fed gauge, reinforcing the case for rate cuts. ADP Employment Report: Hit a three-year low, showing declining pay growth for those who didn’t change jobs, adding to concerns about labor market weakness. Fed’s Beige Book: Revealed flat or declining economic activity in nine out of twelve districts, suggesting economic sluggishness that could influence the Fed’s next moves. August Jobs Report: Showed further labor market deceleration, with downward revisions to June and July payrolls. The report kept the door open for more aggressive Fed action, with FOMC officials signaling that at least 50 basis points will be debated at the September 18th meeting. Treasury and FX Markets: Yield Curve: Continued to normalize as the US 2-year yield traded 4 basis points below the 10-year rate. Futures Markets: Priced in over 100 bps of cuts by the end of 2024 and ~225 bps by September 2025. Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate: Traded close to its August lows, while the VIX volatility index rose above 23 but remained below early August highs. Corporate News: Docusign: Posted strong quarterly results and guidance, getting back on track after struggles during the post-pandemic period. Hewlett Packard Enterprises: Delivered respectable earnings but saw shares fall, as investors were unimpressed with guidance. Broadcom: Reported an uninspiring Q3, leaving investors with more questions about the pace of AI growth, contributing to broader tech sector pressure. Nvidia: There was speculation that NVDA had received a subpoena from the DOJ, but this turned out to be false news. While they are under investigation, no formal subpoena has been served yet. M&A News: Nippon Steel’s Acquisition of US Steel: Faces challenges as reports suggest the Biden Administration may block the deal on national security grounds. Verizon: Agreed to acquire Frontier Communications for $9.6B, expanding its fiber network and positioning itself for future growth.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
Navigating Critical Market Levels: DXY & NAS100 Analysis👀 👉 The DXY and NAS100 are currently at pivotal points, with price action flashing caution signals. The DXY is probing key liquidity levels, while both DXY and NAS100 are showing signs of structural shifts in their trends. It could be prudent to approach the market cautiously today, waiting to see how the USD develops during the New York session and into Tuesday. Disclaimer: The insights shared in this video are for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. 📊✅
TVC:DXY
by tradingwithanthony
2
Powell Says "We're Cutting Rates" - S&P Performance MixedA nice alignment comparing SPX, NDX, RUT with the Fed Funds Rate showing when the FED raises rates and cuts rates and how it impacts the indexes. 1995 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher 1998 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher 2001 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower 2007 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower 2019 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher (but after 30-40% COVID Crash) Nobody knows how this cycle will impact current markets, but we're about to find out. September 18 = 1st cut since 2019 (pre-COVID) and we've seen some impressive booms and busts since 2018. It's pretty remarkable really. The bull markets seem unhealthy, and the bear markets seem more violent and aggressive, but end sooner. How great or how nasty does it get? Let's figure it out and trade accordingly.
NASDAQ:NDX
by ChrisPulver
Mag 7 Drags Down Large Cap - Potential Index Wedge FormationsThanks for checking out the video today. It was a reasonably nice selloff today, led mostly by the Mag 7 stocks. All US Indexes were in red, Nasdaq taking the worst of it around -1.60% lower. Powell on tap for Friday with Day 2 at Jackson Hole. The market is oh so curious if the FED will cut 25 or 50 bps in September and we have plenty of news to digest prior to the official September 18 FOMC Meeting and Press Conference. If Friday Aug 23's trading day pushes lower and helps balance out the aggressive bull moves from August 5's bottom, we could see a nice wedge pattern in the works - lower highs / higher lows. Watch the S&P Daily 200 SMA or 200 EMA for some dynamic support. It will be interesting to see if the bulls and bears both get what they want with prices on the move through September with volatility returning to elevated levels > 20 perhaps. Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
What Wall of Worry? Path of Least Resistance for NowI reviewed an interesting study Tuesday about V bottoms. Over 20 years of data showing the average "V Bottom" takes nearly 1 year to come back and get into positive territory. The fact that all US Indexes and many stocks have done this in 10-15 trading trades is pretty remarkable. Will we more path of least resistance at all-time highs or will we see resistance actual hold for a beat. All US Markets closing green today, Russell 2000 led the indexes today with +1.30% DXY hitting fresh lows, but 101 and 100 are major technical support levels that I'm watching. Review at your convenience. Thanks for watching!!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ChrisPulver
2
Markets Love the Bulls!!! Close to All-Time HighsS&P pulled back 78% of the fall Nasdaq pulled back 61% of the fall Dow pulled back 78% of the fall IWM pulled back 50% of the fall Impressive rips for 2 weeks of trading for the "buy the dip" community. This week's direction was steady in futures, and gaps higher in indexes from opening to closing bell. I'm keeping the charts as clean and simple as possible. September and October are rarely good months for the markets so perhaps all-time highs are a bit of a stretch, but we're much closer now than we were August 5th when everyone was freaking out. Upcoming news for next week: FOMC Minutes US PMI Jackson Hole (with Powell Speech) My defensive plays are focused through August and September expirations, but I'll likely continue to add hedges if appropriate. Have a great weekend and back at it next week!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Aug 11th—> Aug 16th)**DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast** --- Hello Investors! 🌟 This week began with a flash of panic reminiscent of 1987’s Black Monday, but by week’s end, markets had regained some stability. Let’s explore the key events that shaped this volatile week in the markets. 📈 **Market Overview:** Trading opened with a sense of deja vu as investors confronted fears of a "Black Monday" scenario. A mix of factors—including fears of a forced unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade and growing concerns that the Fed is behind the curve—triggered a full-blown panic in global financial markets. The VIX skyrocketed nearly 165% to $65, and the Nikkei plunged about 15% on Monday. Warren Buffett’s decision to sell half his Apple stake and raise cash further rattled investors. Safe-haven flows surged into Treasuries, sending yields plummeting, while the Yen and Swiss Franc strengthened. Nearly all other asset classes, including gold and bitcoin, faced significant pressure as investors rushed to raise cash. The US yield curve briefly tested positive territory in the 2-10 year spread for the first time in about two years, and S&P futures tested the 200-day moving average. Fed fund futures markets quickly began pricing in a potential 50 basis point rate cut in September. However, by the time the New York markets opened on Monday, the VIX had already pulled back from its pre-market highs, and stocks began to recover some losses. The NASDAQ composite tested but ultimately held its 200-day moving average. Treasury yields began to rise again, and the yield curve re-inverted. By midweek, fears surrounding the Yen carry trade had eased after a BOJ official indicated they would not continue raising rates during market instability. The whipsaw recovery continued after a stronger-than-expected weekly US initial jobless claims report, which fueled debate on whether the market had found a bottom. The US 10-year yield climbed back to 4% after disappointing 10-year and 30-year coupon sales. Oil prices rose again as markets awaited Iran's response to the assassination in Tehran last week. By the end of a turbulent week, the S&P slipped less than 0.1%, the DJIA shed 0.6%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📉 S&P 500: Down by less than 0.1% - 📉 Dow Jones: Down by 0.6% - 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 0.2% **Economic Indicators:** - **VIX:** Skyrocketed nearly 165% to 65, reflecting heightened market volatility. - **US Yield Curve:** Briefly tested positive territory in the 2-10 year spread before re-inverting. - **US Initial Jobless Claims:** Came in stronger than expected, fueling optimism about the labor market and contributing to the market's recovery. - **Treasury Yields:** The US 10-year yield climbed back to 4% by week’s end after disappointing Treasury sales. - **Oil Prices:** Continued to rise amid ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran. **Corporate News:** - **Nvidia:** Faced headwinds after reports suggested the launch of its cutting-edge Blackwell chip would be delayed by a few months due to design issues. This was confirmed by Nvidia supplier SuperMicro during its earnings call, where they reported strong revenue but weakening margins, sending their shares sharply lower. - **AI Trade:** Continued to unwind as questions lingered about the immediate impact of AI on the broader economy. - **Disney:** Beat earnings expectations and raised guidance despite acknowledging economic uncertainty’s impact on consumers. The company also announced price hikes for its streaming services. - **Airbnb and Hilton:** Both guided lower as vacationers tightened their belts ahead of a potential recession, signaling a challenging environment for the travel industry. - **Lyft:** Reported its first-ever profitable quarter but missed estimates and provided weak guidance, contrasting with rival Uber, which reported more robust results. **Looking Ahead:** This week will bring several key economic data releases and earnings reports: - **U.S. CPI Data** - **U.S. PPI Data** - **U.S. Retail Sales** - **Earnings Reports:** Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ), Home Depot ( NYSE:HD ), Cisco ( NASDAQ:CSCO ), Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) - **13F Filings:** Expect insights into the latest moves by major investors. As we look ahead, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
TVC:DXYShort
by WallSt007
Black Monday 2024? Discussing Current Markets and PositionsDuring Monday's open, I said this is going to be a day for the history books. Volatility expanded nearly 200% on the day (over 300% in a 3 day period), the Nikkei 225 crashed over 12% in a single day and had the largest 2 day decline ever. It leaked into the US markets with a nasty bearish futures run and massive gaps lower. Fortunately Monday's trading didn't make things much worse, but the damage was already done for many with that dramatic vol expansion. As the dust settles a bit more into Tuesday's trading, I wanted to review everything. Enjoy!!!
NASDAQ:NDX
by ChrisPulver